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DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty Propagation within Chained Models for Machine Learning Reconstruction of Neutrino-LAr Interactions

Sequential or chained models are increasingly prevalent in machine learning for scientific applications, due to their flexibility and ease of development. Chained models are particularly useful when a task is separable into distinct steps with a hierarchy of meaningful intermediate representations. In reliability-critical tasks, it is important to quantify the confidence of model inferences. However, chained models pose an additional challenge for uncertainty quantification, especially when input uncertainties need to be propagated. In such cases, a fully uncertainty-aware chain of models is required, where each step accepts a probability distribution over the input space, and produces a probability distribution over the output space. In this work, we present a case study for adapting a single model within an existing chain, designed for reconstruction within neutrino-Argon interactions, developed for neutrino oscillation experiments such as MicroBooNE, ICARUS, and the future DUNE experiment. We test the performance of an input uncertainty-enabled model against an uncertainty-blinded model using a method for generating synthetic noise. By comparing these two, we assess the increase in inference quality achieved by exposing models to upstream uncertainty estimates.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanistic within-host mathematical model of inhalational anthrax

We present a mathematical model of the dynamics of Bacillus anthracis bacteria within the lymph nodes and blood of a host, following inhalation of an initial dose of spores. We also incorporate the dynamics of protective antigen, which is the binding component of the anthrax toxin produced by the bacteria. The model offers a mechanistic description of the early infection dynamics of inhalational anthrax, while its stochastic nature allows us to study the probabilities of different outcomes (for example, how likely it is that the infection will be cleared for a given inhaled dose of spores) in order to explain dose-response data for inhalational anthrax. The model is calibrated via a Bayesian approach, using in vivo data from New Zealand white rabbit and guinea pig infection studies, enabling within-host parameters to be estimated. We also leverage incubation-period data from the Sverdlovsk 1979 anthrax outbreak to show that the model can accurately describe human time-to-symptoms data under reasonable parameter regimes. Finally, we derive a simple approximate formula for the probability of symptom onset before time t, assuming that the number of inhaled spores has a Poisson distribution.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Simulation-Based Recovery Action Analysis Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool

A recovery action is defined as the action that prevents deviant conditions from producing unwanted effects. It generally indicates a kind of countermeasure performed in response to a failure of human action. The recovery actions especially play an important role in complex systems like nuclear power plants (NPPs), which consist of highly sophisticated controllers to ensure that desired performance and safety must be achieved and maintained. This is because a combination of human error and its recovery failure may be able to cause a catastrophic effect on a system. Analyzing recovery actions has been a critical part of HRA, which is a technique to evaluate human errors and provide human error probabilities (HEPs) for application in probabilistic safety assessment (PSA). If recovery actions are not adequately analyzed and applied to PSA models, the PSA results may be under-estimated or be not able to reasonably account for the failure of human actions in the context of PSA. For this reason, some regulatory documents such as ASME/ANS RA-Sb-2013 by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers and the American Nuclear Society and NUREG-1792 by U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission have emphasized the importance of recovery analysis within the HRA. A couple of existing HRA methods, such as the Technique for Human Error-Rate Prediction (THERP), the Cause-Based Decision Tree (CBDT), and the Korean Standard HRA (K-HRA), have respectively suggested their own approaches to the HRA recovery analysis. However, there are a couple of limitations to treating recovery actions using only the current HRA methods available. The biggest limitation is that the existing recovery analysis does not explicitly consider a variety of recovery action types and recovery sequences as they occur in actual NPPs. To handle the limitations of existing recovery analysis, this study proposes a simulation-based recovery analysis method using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. The EMRALD software is a dynamic simulation tool for PSA. It supports realistic and dynamic modeling of human actions as they would be performed at NPPs. It is also favorable to simultaneously model the specific moment at which an action is performed, the time it takes to perform the action, and the failure probability of that action. In this paper, a detailed methodology for modeling recovery actions in the simulation platform is proposed with a couple of examples. Then, outputs from the simulation are discussed as reviewing if this novel approach can complement the challenges of existing recovery analyses.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Bayesian Approach for In-Situ Stress Prediction and Uncertainty Quantification for Subsurface Engineering

Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of the principal stresses from a borehole, or optimization methods for constructing a 3D geomechanical model in terms of geophysical measurements. These methods, however, often contain considerable uncertainty in estimating the state of stress. Here, in this paper, we build on a Bayesian approach to quantify uncertainty in stress estimations for subsurface engineering applications. This approach can provide an estimate of the 3D distribution of stress throughout the volume of interest and provide an estimate of the uncertainty arising from the stress measurement, the rheology parameters, and a paucity of measurements. The value of this approach is demonstrated using stress measurements from the In Salah carbon storage site, which was one of the world’s first industrial carbon capture and storage projects. This demonstration shows the application of this Bayesian approach for estimating the initial state of stress for In Salah and quantifying the uncertainty in the estimated stress. Also, an assessment of a maximum injection pressure to prevent geomechanical risks from CO 2 injection pressures is provided in terms of the probability distribution of the minimum principal stress quantified by the approach. With the In Salah case study, this paper demonstrates that using the Bayesian approach can provide additional insights for site explorations and/or project operations to make informed-site decisions for subsurface engineering applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Morphostatistical characterization of the spatial galaxy distribution through Gibbs point processes

ABSTRACT This paper proposes a morphostatistical characterization of the galaxy distribution through spatial statistical modelling based on inhomogeneous Gibbs point processes. The galaxy distribution is supposed to exhibit two components. The first one is related to the major geometrical features exhibited by the observed galaxy field, here, its corresponding filamentary pattern. The second one is related to the interactions exhibited by the galaxies. Gibbs point processes are statistical models able to integrate these two aspects in a probability density, controlled by some parameters. Several such models are fitted to real observational data via the ABC shadow algorithm. This algorithm provides simultaneous parameter estimation and posterior-based inference, hence allowing the derivation of the statistical significance of the obtained results.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A Conditional Autoencoder for Galaxy Photometric Parameter Estimation

Astronomical photometric surveys routinely image billions of galaxies, and traditionally infer the parameters of a parametric model for each galaxy. This approach has served us well, but the computational expense of deriving a full posterior probability distribution function is a challenge for increasingly ambitious surveys. In this paper, we use deep learning methods to characterize galaxy images, training a conditional autoencoder on mock data. The autoencoder can reconstruct and denoise galaxy images via a latent space engineered to include semantically meaningful parameters, such as brightness, location, size, and shape. Our model recovers galaxy fluxes and shapes on mock data with a lower variance than the Hyper Suprime-Cam photometry pipeline, and returns reasonable answers even for inputs outside the range of its training data. When applied to data in the training range, the regression errors on all extracted parameters are nearly unbiased with a variance near the Cramr-Rao bound.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Convective Updraft and Downdraft Characteristics of Continental Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Model Gray Zone

Here, the "gray zone" of convective modeling is defined as the range of horizontal grid spacings (Δx) at which turbulent transport processes are only partially resolved by the dynamics of the numerical model. This zone typically covers Δx from a few kilometers to several hundred meters, wherein the realistic representation of convective cloud processes can be challenging. This study characterizes the convective draft behaviors at multiple Δx across the gray zone and determines the appropriate Δx that can reliably capture these salient convective properties. We perform an ensemble of idealized simulations of mesoscale convective systems (MCS) using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at various Δx from 4 km to 250 m over the central U.S. An evaluation of key MCS kinematic properties is constrained using unique, long-term vertical velocity estimates obtained by radar wind profilers deployed by the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement user facility. MCS simulations for all Δx tested overestimate (underestimate) the probabilities of convective updrafts (downdrafts) compared to the observations. In terms of the convective draft intensity, finer-Δx models overestimate the updraft intensity, while the opposite is found for downdrafts. Moving from Δx = 4 km to 250 m, downdrafts become stronger and more frequent especially at middle and upper levels, attributed to additional drag from an increasing graupel frequency and compensation of enhanced updraft velocity. Simulated draft characteristics, including core size, intensity, and probability of occurrence, exhibit pronounced changes at Δx greater than 500 m, but suggest less sensitivity when Δx is reduced below 500 m.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Prospects for Neutron Reactions on Excited States in High-Density Plasmas

With the reactions of high flux neutrons, such as in a DT plasma, there is a prospect of seeing new kinds of neutron-nucleus reactions for the first time. If neutrons excite a heavy nucleus, for example, there is possibility of a second neutron reacting on excited states of the residual nucleus before that nucleus has de-excited to its ground state. The possibility of such reactions on excited states has rarely been considered. The cross section for neutron induced fission on the isomeric state of 235 U has been measured (D’Eer et al., Phys. Rev. C, 1988, 38: 1270–1276) and calculated (Younes et al., 2003, Maslov, 2007), and reactions on rotationally excited nuclear states has been calculated (Kawano et al., Phys. Rev. C, 2009, 80: 024611). In high flux plasmas, however, a much wider range of reactions is possible. We therefore need to consider excited states at much higher-energies than previously modeled, and then estimate whether second neutrons are likely to rescatter on those excited states. To determine the likelihood of such rescattering events, we first need to know the probable time series of nuclear decays of those excited states. The lifetimes of many low-lying states have been measured experimentally, but now we need to know the lifetimes of the many higher excited states that could be produced from incident 14 MeV neutrons. These are too numerous to be measured and also too numerous to be calculated individually, so statistical Hauser-Feshbach decay models are used. I show some lifetime calculations for 89 Y, 169 Tm, and 197 Au targets, and predictions for the number of rescattering events in plausible plasma scenarios.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of Nuclear Material Accounting Data and Process Monitoring Data for Improvement on Detection Probability in Safeguarding Electrochemical Processing Facilities (Final Technical Report)

The KAERI advanced spent fuel conditioning process (ACP) process is a critical component of the US- South Korean nuclear cooperation and the following “123 Agreement.” Its development has received considerable attention in both countries. The ACP is an electrochemical processing (pyroprocessing) that recycles over 96% of the used nuclear fuel (UNF). It is also intrinsically proliferation-resistant in theory. In normal operation, the U/TRU product is very hot radiologically. In addition, the Cm provides a high level of spontaneous neutrons, making the product unsuitable for weapon use. However, as pointed in some study, “the need for safeguards to protect against the diversion and misuse of separated plutonium applies essentially equally to all grades of plutonium.” As pointed by many studies, the well-established traditional Nuclear Material Accounting (NMA) approach cannot be directly applied to electrochemical processing because of the lack of an input accountability tank, the non-continuous material flow, and the unsatisfactory level of confidence in sampling methods. Therefore, nuclear safeguards remain a grand challenge in the developing of commercial electrochemical separations facilities, especially around the heart of such facilities, the electrorefiner (ER) systems. In contrast to NMA data, process monitoring (PM) data is normally an indirect measurement of the SNM and is acquired much more frequently. In a broad sense, PM includes monitoring by various types of equipment, e.g. radiation detectors, cameras, voltage, current sensors. Because it is already being collected by the operator, the additional cost to safeguards is low. It has long been believed that PM data can supplement NMA data and help improve safeguards, although the benefits are hard to quantify. The U.S. DOE’s Material Protection, Accounting, and Control Technology (MPACT) campaign has made substantial investments into innovative PM sensor technology and predictive model development for real- or near real-time measurement and prediction of molten salt density and level, salt composition and actinide concentration especially Pu, the cell voltage, and the cell current to supplement traditional NMA. For aqueous-based reprocessing facilities, it is reported that PM, integrated with traditional NMA, have a high detection probability for specific diversions. For electrochemical reprocessing, preliminary studies have shown that PM data can support traditional NMA in various ways by providing a basis to estimate some of the in-processing nuclear material inventories. Despite early success, further studies on fusion of PM data and NMA data are still needed, which is the goal of this proposed work.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Likelihood-Based Particle Identification in the Short-Baseline Near Detector

Accurate particle identification is crucial in any high-energy physics experiment, allowing scientists to understand the unique interactions and mechanisms at play in a detector. In this project, I develop and study a new particle identification (PID) algorithm for the Short-Baseline Near Detector, a likelihood-based approach, different from out current $\chi^2$ method. A likelihood estimation offers a more physically motivated strategy for PID. The distribution random energy losses of charged particles traveling through a medium are described by the Vavilov probability density function. By using this model, we can account for random energy losses and construct likelihood functions specific to each particle type, potentially enabling a more accurate method for PID.

Vanderwaal, Sophia [U. Alabama, Huntsville] (ORCID↗

DOE OSTI2023

Robust inference of ecosystem soil water stress from eddy covariance data

Eddy covariance data are invaluable for determining ecosystem water use strategies under soil water stress. However, existing stress inference methods require numerous subjective data processing and model specification assumptions whose effect on the inferred soil water stress signal is rarely quantified. These uncertainties may confound the stress inference and the generalization of ecosystem water use strategies across multiple sites and studies. In this research, we quantify the sensitivity of soil water stress signals inferred from eddy covariance data to the prevailing data and modeling assumptions (i.e., their robustness) to compile a comprehensive list of sites with robust soil water stress signals and assess the performance of current stress inference methods. To accomplish this, we identify the most prevalent assumptions from the literature and perform a digital factorial experiment to extract probability distributions of plausible soil water stress signals and model performance at 151 FLUXNET2015 and AmeriFlux-FLUXNET sites. Here, we develop a new framework that summarizes these probability distributions to classify and rank the robustness of each site’s soil water stress signal, which we display with a user-friendly heat map. We estimate that only 5%–36% of sites exhibit a robust soil water stress signal due to deficient model performance and poorly constrained ecosystem water use parameters. We also find that the lack of robustness is site-specific, which undermines grouping stress signals by broad ecosystem categories or comparing results across studies with differing assumptions. Lastly, existing stress inference methods appear better suited for eddy covariance sites with grass/annual vegetation. Our findings call for more careful and consistent inference of ecosystem water stress from eddy covariance data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quantum circuit cutting with maximum-likelihood tomography

Abstract We introduce maximum-likelihood fragment tomography (MLFT) as an improved circuit cutting technique for running clustered quantum circuits on quantum devices with a limited number of qubits. In addition to minimizing the classical computing overhead of circuit cutting methods, MLFT finds the most likely probability distribution for the output of a quantum circuit, given the measurement data obtained from the circuit’s fragments. We demonstrate the benefits of MLFT for accurately estimating the output of a fragmented quantum circuit with numerical experiments on random unitary circuits. Finally, we show that circuit cutting can estimate the output of a clustered circuit with higher fidelity than full circuit execution, thereby motivating the use of circuit cutting as a standard tool for running clustered circuits on quantum hardware.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deterministic-Monte Carlo Hybrid Methods for Eigenvalue Sensitivity Coefficient Calculations

The TSUNAMI suite within the SCALE code package includes several methods for generating sensitivity data, including multigroup (MG) and continuous-energy (CE) capabilities. For generating sensitivities with CE data, three methods are available in SCALE 6.3.0: (1) the iterated fission probability (IFP) method with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver, (2) IFP with the Shift Monte Carlo transport solver, and (3) the Contributon-Linked eigenvalue sensitivity/Uncertainty estimation via Tracklength importance Characterization (CLUTCH) with the KENO Monte Carlo transport solver. Currently, it is difficult to generate accurate sensitivities with large reflectors when using the CLUTCH method, specifically with fissionable and hydrogenous materials. To address this issue, the work presented herein examines a methodology to calculate the adjoint flux externally with the 3D deterministic SN transport code DENOVO in SCALE; the result is then read directly into the CLUTCH-TSUNAMI sequence. This hybridization method replaces the Monte Carlo F*(r) calculation in CLUTCH while still utilizing the forward calculation. The critical benchmark HEU-MET-FAST-028-001 is used to generate sensitivities based on the inability of CLUTCH to generate accurate sensitivities. Results from the hybrid method appear to generate sensitivity values that are in excellent agreement with direct perturbations. Although further testing is needed, the method provides promising results for the development and utility of a hybrid method for use in TSUNAMI.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of stagnation performance metrics in magnetized liner inertial fusion experiments using Bayesian data assimilation

Here we present a new analysis methodology that allows for the self-consistent integration of multiple diagnostics including nuclear measurements, x-ray imaging, and x-ray power detectors to determine the primary stagnation parameters, such as temperature, pressure, stagnation volume, and mix fraction in magnetized liner inertial fusion (MagLIF) experiments. The analysis uses a simplified model of the stagnation plasma in conjunction with a Bayesian inference framework to determine the most probable configuration that describes the experimental observations while simultaneously revealing the principal uncertainties in the analysis. We validate the approach by using a range of tests including analytic and three-dimensional MHD models. An ensemble of MagLIF experiments is analyzed, and the generalized Lawson criterion χ is estimated for all experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying Distribution System Resilience From Utility Data: Large Event Risk and Benefits of Investments

We focus on blackouts in electric distribution systems that have a large cost to customers. To quantify resilience to these events, we show how to calculate risk metrics from the historical outage data routinely collected by utilities' outage management systems. Risk is defined using a customer cost exceedance curve. The exceedance curve has a heavy tail that implies large fluctuations in large blackout costs, and this makes estimating the mean large cost in the usual way impractical. To avoid this problem, we use new resilience metrics describing the large event risk; these metrics are the probability of a large cost event, the annual log cost resilience index, and the average of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost events or the slope magnitude of the tail on a log–log exceedance curve. Resilience can be improved by planned investments to upgrade system components or speed up restoration. The benefits that these investments would have had if they had been made in the past can be quantified by “rerunning history” with the effects of the investment included, and then recalculating the large event risk to find the improvement in resilience. An example using utility data shows a 2% reduction in the probability of a large cost event due to 10% wind hardening and 6%–7% reduction due to 10% faster restoration in two different areas of a distribution utility. This new data-driven approach to quantify resilience and resilience investments is realistic and much easier to apply than complicated approaches based on modeling all the phases of resilience. Moreover, an appeal to improvements to past lived experience may well be persuasive to customers and regulators in making the case for resilience investments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗