Novel incubation‐free approaches to determine phytoplankton net primary productivity, growth, and biomass based on flow cytometry and quantification of ATP and NAD(H)
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Bethan M. Jones↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Dynamic Assurance of Autonomous Systems through Ground Control Software
Assurance cases are being increasingly acknowledged as a way to build trust in complex systems with autonomous capabilities [1]. An assurance case is a comprehensive, defensible, and valid justification that a system will function as intended for the specific mission and operating environment. Such justifications for systems with autonomous capabilities are often based on various probabilistic quantifications [2]. Due to the dynamic nature of the environmental conditions in which these systems operate, as well as the changing nature of the autonomous systems themselves, these probabilistic quantifications cannot be simply estimated once during design time. Rather, they need to be continually evaluated during systems operations to ensure that the assurance case justifications are valid. We refer to the assurance case that combines both the static and dynamic elements as a Dynamic Assurance Case (DAC). Such complex systems with autonomous capabilities are often deployed with a Ground Control Software (GCS) component to enable remote operation. Whether the system is composed of a single unit or a fleet of units, deployed distributed or in remote environments, GCS acts as a window into the behavior of the deployed system. It receives telemetry from the system, issues commands to the system and provides various functionalities to visualize the system performance. We propose a dynamic assurance framework where the GCS acts as a relay between the autonomous system and its DAC. GCS can be used to measure both unit-specific as well as system-wide probabilistic quantifications using the incoming telemetry. We embed these quantifications throughout the DAC as variables that can be updated by external sources. We use the GCS to periodically update these variables, which allows us to continually evaluate the formally defined assurance case justifications. We demonstrate our dynamic assurance framework in the NASA Ames project Troupe1 that aims at developing a fleet of rovers capable of au- tonomously mapping their environment. The rovers work cooperatively, each collecting data for different parts of the environment. Each rover runs an identical core Flight System (cFS) [4] application. Troupe1 uses OpenC3 Cosmos [5] as the ground system, and AdvoCATE [3] to capture the system DAC. We show how we can measure both rover-specific and system-wide quantifications in Cosmos using its Ruby scripting editor and pass them into the DAC modelled in AdvoCATE. Then, we show how these incoming variables can be embedded in different parts of the DAC and how effects of their updates can be observed
Irfan Sljivo↗
Combined Uncertainty and A-Posteriori Error Bound Estimates for General CFD Calculations: Theory and Software Implementation
This workshop presentation discusses the design and implementation of numerical methods for the quantification of statistical uncertainty, including a-posteriori error bounds, for output quantities computed using CFD methods. Hydrodynamic realizations often contain numerical error arising from finite-dimensional approximation (e.g. numerical methods using grids, basis functions, particles) and statistical uncertainty arising from incomplete information and/or statistical characterization of model parameters and random fields. The first task at hand is to derive formal error bounds for statistics given realizations containing finite-dimensional numerical error [1]. The error in computed output statistics contains contributions from both realization error and the error resulting from the calculation of statistics integrals using a numerical method. A second task is to devise computable a-posteriori error bounds by numerically approximating all terms arising in the error bound estimates. For the same reason that CFD calculations including error bounds but omitting uncertainty modeling are only of limited value, CFD calculations including uncertainty modeling but omitting error bounds are only of limited value. To gain maximum value from CFD calculations, a general software package for uncertainty quantification with quantified error bounds has been developed at NASA. The package provides implementations for a suite of numerical methods used in uncertainty quantification: Dense tensorization basis methods [3] and a subscale recovery variant [1] for non-smooth data, Sparse tensorization methods[2] utilizing node-nested hierarchies, Sampling methods[4] for high-dimensional random variable spaces.
CFD↗
Phase 1 of the near term hybrid passenger vehicle development program, appendix A. Mission analysis and performance specification studies. Volume 2: Appendices
A handy reference for JPL minimum requirements and guidelines is presented as well as information on the use of the fundamental information source represented by the Nationwide Personal Transportation Survey. Data on U.S. demographic statistics and highway speeds are included along with methodology for normal parameters evaluation, synthesis of daily distance distributions, and projection of car ownership distributions. The synthesis of tentative mission quantification results, of intermediate mission quantification results, and of mission quantification parameters are considered and 1985 in place fleet fuel economy data are included.
Traversi, M.↗
Industry survey of space system cost benefits from New Ways Of Doing Business
The cost of designing, building and operating space system hardware has always been expensive. Small quantities of specialty parts escalate engineering design, production and operations cost. Funding cutbacks and shrinking revenues dictate aggressive cost saving programs. NASA's highest priority is providing economical transportation to and from space. Over the past three decades NASA has seen technological advances that provide grater efficiencies in designing, building, and operating of space system hardware. As future programs such as NLS, LUTE and SEI begin, these greater efficiencies and cost savings should be reflected in the cost models. There are several New Ways Of Doing Business (NWODB) which, when fully implemented will reduce space system costs. These philosophies and/or culture changes are integrated in five areas: (1) More Extensive Pre-Phase C/D & E, (2) Multi Year Funding Stability, (3) Improved Quality, Management and Procurement Processes, (4) Advanced Design Methods, and (5) Advanced Production Methods. Following is an overview of NWODB and the Cost Quantification Analysis results using an industry survey, one of the four quantification techniques used in the study. The NWODB Cost Quantification Analysis is a study performed at Marshall Space Flight Center by the Engineering Cost Group, Applied Research Incorporated and Pittsburg State University. This study took place over a period of four months in mid 1992. The purpose of the study was to identify potential NWODB which could lead to improved cost effectiveness within NASA and to quantify potential cost benefits that might accrue if these NWODB were implemented.
Rosmait, Russell L.↗
Stationary plasma thruster evaluation in Russia
A team of electric propulsion specialists from U.S. government laboratories experimentally evaluated the performance of a 1.35-kW Stationary Plasma Thruster (SPT) at the Scientific Research Institute of Thermal Processes in Moscow and at 'Fakel' Enterprise in Kaliningrad, Russia. The evaluation was performed using a combination of U.S. and Russian instrumentation and indicated that the actual performance of the thruster appears to be close to the claimed performance. The claimed performance was a specific impulse of 16,000 m/s, an overall efficiency of 50 percent, and an input power of 1.35 kW, and is superior to the performance of western electric thrusters at this specific impulse. The unique performance capabilities of the stationary plasma thruster, along with claims that more than fifty of the 660-W thrusters have been flown in space on Russian spacecraft, attracted the interest of western spacecraft propulsion specialists. A two-phase program was initiated to evaluate the stationary plasma thruster performance and technology. The first phase of this program, to experimentally evaluate the performance of the thruster with U.S. instrumentation in Russia, is described in this report. The second phase objective is to determine the suitability of the stationary plasma thruster technology for use on western spacecraft. This will be accomplished by bringing stationary plasma thrusters to the U.S. for quantification of thruster erosion rates, measurements of the performance variation as a function of long-duration operation, quantification of the exhaust beam divergence angle, and determination of the non-propellant efflux from the thruster. These issues require quantification in order to maximize the probability for user application of the SPT technology and significantly increase the propulsion capabilities of U.S. spacecraft.
Brophy, John R.↗
Collaborative Study of Analysis of High Resolution Infrared Atmospheric Spectra Between NASA Langley Research Center and the University of Denver
The Langley-D.U. collaboration on the analysis of high resolution infrared atmospheric spectra covered a number of important studies of trace gases identification and quantification from field spectra, and spectral line parameters analysis. The collaborative work included: Quantification and monitoring of trace gases from ground-based spectra available from various locations and seasons and from balloon flights. Studies toward identification and quantification of isotopic species, mostly oxygen and Sulfur isotopes. Search for new species on the available spectra. Update of spectroscopic line parameters, by combining laboratory and atmospheric spectra with theoretical spectroscopy methods. Study of trends of atmosphere trace constituents. Algorithms developments, retrievals intercomparisons and automatization of the analysis of NDSC spectra, for both column amounts and vertical profiles.
Goldman, Aaron↗
Collaborative Study for Analysis of High Resolution Infrared Atmospheric Spectra Between NASA Langley Research Center and the University of Denver
The Langley-D.U. collaboration on the analysis of high resolultion infrared atmospheric spectra covered a number of important studies of trace gases identification and quantification from field spectra, and spectral line parameters analysis. The collaborative work included: 1) Quantification and monitoring of trace gases from ground-based spectra available from various locations and seasons and from balloon flights; 2) Identification and preliminary quantification of several isotopic species, including oxygen and Sulfur isotopes; 3) Search for new species on the available spectra, including the use of selective coadding of ground-based spectra for high signal to noise; 4) Update of spectroscopic line parameters, by combining laboratory and atmospheric spectra with theoretical spectroscopy methods; 5) Study of trends and correlations of atmosphere trace constituents; and 6) Algorithms developments, retrievals intercomparisons and automatization of the analysis of NDSC spectra, for both column amounts and vertical profiles.
Goldman, A.↗
The GLACE-2 Experiment
A major motivation for the study of the coupled land-atmosphere system is the idea that soil moisture anomalies may affect future meteorological variables through their effects on future surface energy and water budgets. If true, the accurate initialization of soil moisture in a subseasonal or seasonal forecast system may improve forecast skill, making the forecast products more valuable to society. The Global Land-Atmosphere Coupling Experiment (GLACE-2) project is examining, with a wide variety of models, the degree to which subseasonal (out to two months) precipitation and air temperature forecasts improve through the realistic initialization of soil moisture. For the first time ever, a global consensus should emerge regarding the value of land initialization for forecasts, perhaps motivating national forecast centers to make full use of land moisture initialization in their operations. Participants in GLACE-2 perform two series of forecasts, each consisting of 100 2-month forecast ensembles (10 members per ensemble) covering ten boreal spring and summer start-dates in each of the years 1986-1995. Series 1 utilizes realistic land surface state initialization, provided through a decadal offline simulation using realistic meteorological forcing, as provided by the Global Soil Wetness Project - Phase 2 (GSWP-2), a research activity of the Global Land-Atmosphere System Study (GLASS) of GEWEX. Series 2 is identical to Series 1 in every way except for the fact that it does not benefit from realistic land state initialization. Through the comparison of Series 1 and 2, we isolate the impact of land initialization on the forecasts. Optional extensions to these base runs include forecasts covering additional years, using alternative meteorological forcing for the land initialization. To date, GLACE-2 has garnered participation from eleven modeling groups, covering 13 atmospheric models. Analysis of available results is already well underway, both at the individual modeling institutions and at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, which is coordinating the project. Analysis focuses on two elements of the forecast problem: (i) the quantification of model-specific "predictability" (i.e., the degree to which simulated atmospheric chaos will foil a forecast, even under the assumption of"perfect" model physics, initialization data, and validation data) and its decay with time; and (ii) the quantification of forecast skill, determined through a comparison of predicted precipitation and air temperature against observations. Indeed, the specific contribution of land initialization to both these elements is isolated through a comparison of the Series 1 and 2 forecasts. We examine the two elements at four different forecast leads: 1-15, 16-30, 31-45, and 46-60 days. Statistics-based approaches for enhancing skill (essentially using observational statistics to reduce the impact of the models' climatic biases) are also tested. In the present talk, we provide an update of progress in GLACE-2, featuring quantifications of predictability and forecast skill for a number of the participating models and providing a "first look" at the desired consensus view of land impacts on subseasonal forecasts.
Koster, Randal↗
Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects
Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO2 concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater-surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyper resolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.
Global hydrological model↗
Lessons from Astrobiological Planetary Analogue Exploration in Iceland: Biomarker Assay Performance and Downselection
Understanding the sensitivity of biomarker assays to the local physicochemical environment, and the underlying spatial distribution of the target biomarkers in 'homogeneous' environments, can increase mission science return. We have conducted four expeditions to Icelandic Mars analogue sites in which an increasingly refined battery of physicochemical measurements and biomarker assays were performed, staggered with scouting of further sites. Completed expeditions took place in 2012 (location scouting and field assay use testing), 2013 (sampling of two major sites with three assays and observational physicochemical measurements), 2015 (repeat sampling of prior sites and one new site, scouting of new sites, three assays and three instruments), and 2016 (preliminary sampling of new sites with analysis of returned samples). Target sites were geologically recent basaltic lava flows, and sample loci were arranged in hierarchically nested grids at 10 cm, 1 m, 10 m, 100 m, and >1 km order scales, subject to field constraints. Assays were intended to represent a diversity of potential biomarker types (cell counting via nucleic acid staining and fluorescence microscopy, ATP quantification via luciferase luminescence, and relative DNA quantification with simple domain-level primers) rather a specific mission science target, and were selected to reduce laboratory overhead, require limited consumables, and allow rapid turnaround. All analytical work was performed in situ or in a field laboratory within a day's travel of the field sites unless otherwise noted. We have demonstrated the feasibility of performing ATP quantification and qPCR analysis in a field-based laboratory with single-day turnaround. The ATP assay was generally robust and reliable and required minimal field equipment and training to produce a large amount of useful data. DNA was successfully extracted from all samples, but the serial-batch nature of qPCR significantly limited the number of primers (hence classifications) and replicates that could be run in a single day. Fluorescence microscopy did not prove feasible under the same constraints, primarily due to the large number of person-hours required to view, analyze, and record results from the images; however, this could be mitigated with higher-quality imaging instruments and appropriate image analysis software.
Planetary↗
A UAV-Based Fog Collector Design for Fine-Scale Aerobiological Sampling
Airborne microbes are found throughout the troposphere and into the stratosphere. Knowing how the activity of airborne microorganisms can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is vital to a full understanding of local and global ecosystems. Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions vary in habitability; the underlying geochemical, climatic, and ecological dynamics must be characterized at different scales to be effectively modeled. Most aerobiological studies have focused on a high level: 'How high are airborne microbes found?' and 'How far can they travel?' Most fog and cloud water studies collect from stationary ground stations (point) or along flight transects (1D). To complement and provide context for this data, we have designed a UAV-based modified fog and cloud water collector to retrieve 4D-resolved samples for biological and chemical analysis.Our design uses a passive impacting collector hanging from a rigid rod suspended between two multi-rotor UAVs. The suspension design reduces the effect of turbulence and potential for contamination from the UAV downwash. The UAVs are currently modeled in a leader-follower configuration, taking advantage of recent advances in modular UAVs, UAV swarming, and flight planning.The collector itself is a hydrophobic mesh. Materials including Tyvek, PTFE, nylon, and polypropylene monofilament fabricated via laser cutting, CNC knife, or 3D printing were characterized for droplet collection efficiency using a benchtop atomizer and particle counter. Because the meshes can be easily and inexpensively fabricated, a set can be pre-sterilized and brought to the field for 'hot swapping' to decrease cross-contamination between flight sessions or use as negative controls.An onboard sensor and logging system records the time and location of each sample; when combined with flight tracking data, the samples can be resolved into a 4D volumetric map of the fog bank. Collected samples can be returned to the lab for a variety of analyses. Based on a review of existing flight studies, we have identified ion chromatography, metagenomic sequencing, cell staining and quantification, and ATP quantification as high-priority assays for implementation. Support for specific toxicology assays, such as methylmercury quantification, is also planned.
Design↗
A UAV-Based Fog Collector Design for Fine-Scale Aerobiological Sampling
Airborne microbes are found throughout the troposphere and into the stratosphere. Knowing how the activity of airborne microorganisms can alter water, carbon, and other geochemical cycles is vital to a full understanding of local and global ecosystems. Just as on the land or in the ocean, atmospheric regions vary in habitability; the underlying geochemical, climatic, and ecological dynamics must be characterized at different scales to be effectively modeled. Most aerobiological studies have focused on a high level: 'How high are airborne microbes found?' and 'How far can they travel?' Most fog and cloud water studies collect from stationary ground stations (point) or along flight transects (1D). To complement and provide context for this data, we have designed a UAV-based modified fog and cloud water collector to retrieve 4D-resolved samples for biological and chemical analysis.Our design uses a passive impacting collector hanging from a rigid rod suspended between two multi-rotor UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles). The suspension design reduces the effect of turbulence and potential for contamination from the UAV downwash. The UAVs are currently modeled in a leader-follower configuration, taking advantage of recent advances in modular UAVs, UAV swarming, and flight planning.The collector itself is a hydrophobic mesh. Materials including Tyvek, PTFE, nylon, and polypropylene monofilament fabricated via laser cutting, CNC knife, or 3D printing were characterized for droplet collection efficiency using a benchtop atomizer and particle counter. Because the meshes can be easily and inexpensively fabricated, a set can be pre-sterilized and brought to the field for 'hot swapping' to decrease cross-contamination between flight sessions or use as negative controls.An onboard sensor and logging system records the time and location of each sample; when combined with flight tracking data, the samples can be resolved into a 4D volumetric map of the fog bank. Collected samples can be returned to the lab for a variety of analyses. Based on a review of existing flight studies, we have identified ion chromatography, metagenomic sequencing, cell staining and quantification, and ATP quantification as high-priority assays for implementation. Support for specific toxicology assays, such as methyl-mercury quantification, is also planned.
Design↗
TPSAS-NF1676L-32640-DND
Computational fluid dynamics is now considered to be an indispensable tool for the design and development of scramjet engine components. Unfortunately, the quantification of uncertainties is rarely addressed with anything other than sensitivity studies, so the degree of confidence associated with the numerical results remains exclusively with the subject matter expert that generated them. This practice must be replaced with a formal uncertainty quantification process for computational fluid dynamics to play an expanded role in the system design, development, and flight certification process. Given the limitations of current hypersonic ground test facilities, this expanded role is believed to be a requirement by some in the hypersonics community if scramjet engines are to be given serious consideration as a viable propulsion system. The present effort describes a simple, relatively low cost, nonintrusive approach to uncertainty quantification that includes the basic ingredients required to handle both aleatoric (random) and epistemic (lack of knowledge) sources of uncertainty.
Robert A Baurle↗
BLOOD-BASED MULTI-SCALE MODEL FOR CANCER RISK FROM GCR IN GENETICALLY DIVERSE POPULATIONS
OBJECTIVES AND METHODS This project addresses the challenge of understanding and predicting individual radiation sensitivity by integrating genetics, demographics and biomarker characteristics across species (mice and humans). We hypothesize that ex vivo DNA repair response to GCR components is a central determinant of cancer risk from space radiation and can serve as a biomarker of radiation risk in combination with genetics. Automated image quantification of 53BP1+ radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET in non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice across 15 strains (5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains) exposed to X rays (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy), 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2), as well as in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 768 healthy donors (matched ethnicity, 50/50 male/female, 18-70 years old) exposed to gamma rays (0.1 and 1 Gy), 350 MeV/n 28Si, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2). QUANTIFICATION OF 53BP1+ FOCI IN VITRO AND ASSOCIATIONS TO IN VIVO RADIATION SUSCEPTIBILITY IN 15 MOUSE STRAINS We reported in vitro repair kinetic and repairable fractions of RIF for the 15 mouse strains and introduced a mathematical model for RIF as a function of time, dose and LET. We noted that the metabolic activity of cells modulates the RIF response, and we introduced the open access tool terRIFic (Tool for Enhanced Results of RIF In Cells, https://radbiolab.shinyapps.io/terrific/) to correct for such bias using confluence level. Notably, at 4h post-irradiation, RIF/Gy decreased with dose or LET: as the dose or LET increases, so does the proximity of DNA double-strand-breaks (DSB) and our data suggest that proximal DSBs are brought together inside isolated RIF for repair. The RIF/Gy trend was inverted at 24h, suggesting RIF with high DSB content are more difficult to repair. We showed that in vitro metrics correlate with in vivo measurements in the same 15 mouse strains, such as survival levels of immune cells or spontaneous cancer incidence, suggesting a relationship between the efficiency of DSB repair and cancer risk or radiation toxicity. In addition to the efficiency of repair and persistent RIF, the amount of spontaneous foci before irradiation was also found to be strain dependent. Finally, we performed genome-wide association study in the same 15 mouse strains using all RIF phenotypes measured in vitro, identifying genes of interest and validating RIF as an ideal biomarker for individual radiation sensitivity. BASELINE 53BP1+ FOCI PREDICTS INDIVIDUAL HUMAN RESPONSE TO GCR COMPONENTS Based on the analysis of radiation responses of 576 donor PBMCs (using quantification of 53BP1+ foci, oxidative stress and cell death), we observed a wide variability of subject- and LET-dependent radiation responses, with radiation-induced DNA repair foci increasing with LET, though oxidative stress being notably reduced by high-LET irradiation, potentially due to a switch between hydrogen peroxide and oxygen radical-based mechanisms. We identified a relationship between few spontaneous DNA foci at baseline and increased DNA repair after irradiation, accompanied by an alteration in immunoregulatory cytokine secretion, which might be adapted as biomarkers to predict ionizing radiation sensitivity. Among demographic variables, only latent cytomegalovirus infection and age were predictive of high baseline foci formation. Finally, we have performed low-throughput whole genome sequencing of all samples and are currently in the process of identifying the genes and pathways associated with low and high-LET ionizing radiation sensitivity in humans.
53BP1↗
Evaluation of GHGSat Methane Emission Estimations of South Side Landfill in Indianapolis, Indiana
As global methane (CH4) continues to grow, accurate quantification of CH4 emission sources has become a high priority for climate management. Urban CH4 emissions in the US could potentially account close to 20% of the national CH4 anthropogenic emissions. While isolated insitu urban CH4 emissions quantification projects have been successful, they require sophisticated planning and prolonged analyses. Such studies are imperative, but they cannot easily operate in every city. An ability to quantify the magnitude of CH4 point sources in a variety of cities with a satellite could support wide scale urban CH4 emissions quantification. Whole-earth scanning satellite instruments such as the TROPOMI and GOSAT are too coarse and noisy to provide meaningful measurements over cities with mid-strength emissions and most point-source emissions in general. It may be possible to address this deficiency utilizing a product with the high spatial resolution of 30-50 m from a private company GHGSat Inc. These sensors are specifically designed to identify and quantify CH4 emissions from diverse types of point sources of varying intensities. In this work we analyze a year (05/2023-05/2024) of GHGSat scans over South Side Landfill in downtown Indianapolis, Indiana and assess the instruments’ accuracy and precision with respect to prior estimations. The results indicate that the data are helpful for estimating landfill’s emissions (~750 kg/hr ± 200 kg/hr) over months-to-a-year time frame but may not be appropriate for identifying daily or even seasonal variations with any trustable degree of certainty, at least not in an urban environment.
Nikolay Balashov↗
A Gaussian Process Enhancement to Linear Parameter Varying Models
Simulation and analysis for modern engineering systems now routinely requires the merging of multiple disciplines, physical-domains, time-scales, and data sets — all at ever increasing levels. These capabilities are especially needed in the domain of Advanced Air Mobility, where rapidly emerging vehicle designs are significantly more complex, while having to be both cost-effective and safe. To meet these engineering challenges, machine learning methods are an attractive option for merging models and data across multiple areas while providing uncertainty quantification and maintaining computational efficiency. This paper examines the use of Gaussian process machine learning to generalize and enhance the commonly used class of quasi-Linear Parameter Varying models for fast full-envelope simulation while also supporting control system design and analysis with model uncertainty. Gaussian process machine learning is selected because it: can fuse multiple data sets, enables an easy trade-off between data fitting and smoothing, provides model uncertainty quantification, scales well with increasing complexity, and does not generally require starting from a large training data set. To demonstrate the benefits of the approach, a robust stability analysis with Gaussian process uncertainty is shown for a NASA reference design of an electric quad-rotor air-taxi concept vehicle with motor parameter uncertainty.
Gaussian Process↗
Robust Design Under Uncertainty of Hypersonic Inlets
The objective of this work is to optimize scramjet inlet designs under uncertainty at multiple fidelity levels. Optimizations are performed for both deterministic and stochastic conditions. For stochastic conditions, robust design is used to minimize the variance in system performance in addition to optimizing mean system performance. Uncertainty quantification is performed using non-intrusive polynomial chaos. Comparisons are made between low-fidelity analysis and high-fidelity analysis, as well as deterministic optimization and robust optimization. Results indicate that the general design trend of previous inlet optimization techniques is recovered for the external compression portion of an inlet. For the internal compression portion of an inlet, when viscous effects become more significant and boundary layer separation becomes more likely, the optimal trend departs from previous results. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification methods are found to substantially reduce the computation time of robust design while obtaining results that nearly match those of high-fidelity analysis. Robust optimization is found to decrease the standard deviation of throat Mach number by up to 40% compared to deterministic optimization. Changes in the design variables and total turning that lead to robust scramjet inlets are identified and linked back to fundamental physical principles through the theta-beta-Mach function.
Hypersonic↗