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This viewgraph presentation reviews a reliability analysis of small cell protection batteries. The contents include: 1) The s-p Topology; 2) Cell Level Protection Devices; 3) Battery Level Fault Protection; 4) Large Cell Comparison; and 5) Battery Level Testing and Results.
Two computational models to determine the fatigue life and reliability of a commercial turboprop gearbox are compared with each other and with field data. These models are (1) Monte Carlo simulation of randomly selected lives of individual bearings and gears comprising the system and (2) two-parameter Weibull distribution function for bearings and gears comprising the system using strict-series system reliability to combine the calculated individual component lives in the gearbox. The Monte Carlo simulation included the virtual testing of 744,450 gearboxes. Two sets of field data were obtained from 64 gearboxes that were first-run to removal for cause, were refurbished and placed back in service, and then were second-run until removal for cause. A series of equations were empirically developed from the Monte Carlo simulation to determine the statistical variation in predicted life and Weibull slope as a function of the number of gearboxes failed. The resultant L(sub 10) life from the field data was 5,627 hr. From strict-series system reliability, the predicted L(sub 10) life was 774 hr. From the Monte Carlo simulation, the median value for the L(sub 10) gearbox lives equaled 757 hr. Half of the gearbox L(sub 10) lives will be less than this value and the other half more. The resultant L(sub 10) life of the second-run (refurbished) gearboxes was 1,334 hr. The apparent load-life exponent p for the roller bearings is 5.2. Were the bearing lives to be recalculated with a load-life exponent p equal to 5.2, the predicted L(sub 10) life of the gearbox would be equal to the actual life obtained in the field. The component failure distribution of the gearbox from the Monte Carlo simulation was nearly identical to that using the strict-series system reliability analysis, proving the compatibility of these methods.
This paper introduces the fundamental concepts of fault tolerant computing. Key topics covered are voting, fault detection, clock synchronization, Byzantine Agreement, diagnosis, and reliability analysis. Low level mechanisms such as Hamming codes or low level communications protocols are not covered. The paper is tutorial in nature and does not cover any topic in detail. The focus is on rationale and approach rather than detailed exposition.
The lessons learned from the S&MA early involvement in the Ares I launch vehicle design phases proved that performing an in-line function jointly with engineering is critical for S&MA to have an effective role in supporting the system, element, and component design. These lessons learned were used to effectively support the Ares V conceptual design phase and planning for post conceptual design phases. The Top level Conceptual LOM assessment for Ares V performed by the S&MA community jointly with the engineering Advanced Concept Office (ACO) was influential in the final selection of the Ares V system configuration. Post conceptual phase, extensive reliability effort should be planned to support future Heavy Lift Launch Vehicles (HLLV) design. In-depth reliability analysis involving the design, manufacturing, and system engineering communities is critical to understand design and process uncertainties and system integrated failures.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) since 2006. A key element of the ASRG Project is providing life, reliability, and performance testing of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). For this purpose, four pairs of ASCs capable of operating to 850 C and designated with the model number ASC-E2, were delivered by Sunpower of Athens, OH, to GRC in 2010. The ASC-E2s underwent a series of tests that included workmanship vibration testing, performance mapping, and extended operation. Workmanship vibration testing was performed following fabrication of each convertor to verify proper hardware build. Performance mapping consisted of operating each convertor at various conditions representing the range expected during a mission. Included were conditions representing beginning-of-mission (BOM), end-of-mission (EOM), and fueling. This same series of tests was performed by Sunpower prior to ASC-E2 delivery. The data generated during the GRC test were compared to performance before delivery. Extended operation consisted of a 500-hour period of operation with conditions maintained at the BOM point. This was performed to demonstrate steady convertor performance following performance mapping. Following this initial 500-hour period, the ASC-E2s will continue extended operation, controller development and special durability testing, during which the goal is to accumulate tens of thousands of hours of operation. Data collected during extended operation will support reliability analysis. Performance data from these tests is summarized in this paper.
Imagine astronauts using the same Interactive Electronic Technical Manuals (IETM's) as the ground personnel who assemble or maintain their flight hardware, and having all of that data interoperable with design, logistics, reliability analysis, and training. Modern international standards and their corresponding COTS tools already used in other industries provide a good foundation for streamlined technical publications in the space industry. These standards cover everything from data exchange to product breakdown structure to business rules flexibility. Full Product Lifecycle Support (PLCS) is supported. The concept is to organize, build once, reuse many ways, and integrate. This should apply to all future and some current launch vehicles, payloads, space stations/habitats, spacecraft, facilities, support equipment, and retrieval ships.
The International Space Station (ISS) contains two Active Thermal Control Sub-systems (ATCS) that function by using a liquid ammonia cooling system collecting waste heat and rejecting it using radiators. These subsystems consist of a number of heat exchangers, cold plates, radiators, the Pump and Flow Control Subassembly (PFCS), and the Pump Module (PM), all of which are Orbital Replaceable Units (ORU's). The PFCS provides the motive force to circulate the ammonia coolant in the Photovoltaic Thermal Control Subsystem (PVTCS) and has been in operation since December, 2000. The Pump Module (PM) circulates liquid ammonia coolant within the External Active Thermal Control Subsystem (EATCS) cooling the ISS internal coolant (water) loops collecting waste heat and rejecting it through the ISS radiators. These PM loops have been in operation since December, 2006. This paper will discuss the original reliability analysis approach of the PFCS and Pump Module, comparing them against the current operational performance data for the ISS External Thermal Control Loops.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Glenn Research Center (GRC) has been supporting development of the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) since 2006. A key element of the ASRG Project is providing life, reliability, and performance testing of the Advanced Stirling Convertor (ASC). For this purpose, four pairs of ASCs capable of operating to 850 C and designated with the model number ASC-E2, were delivered by Sunpower of Athens, Ohio, to GRC in 2010. The ASC-E2s underwent a series of tests that included workmanship vibration testing, performance mapping, and extended operation. Workmanship vibration testing was performed following fabrication of each convertor to verify proper hardware build. Performance mapping consisted of operating each convertor at various conditions representing the range expected during a mission. Included were conditions representing beginning-of-mission (BOM), end-of-mission (EOM), and fueling. This same series of tests was performed by Sunpower prior to ASC-E2 delivery. The data generated during the GRC test were compared to performance before delivery. Extended operation consisted of a 500-hr period of operation with conditions maintained at the BOM point. This was performed to demonstrate steady convertor performance following performance mapping. Following this initial 500-hr period, the ASC-E2s will continue extended operation, controller development and special durability testing, during which the goal is to accumulate tens of thousands of hours of operation. Data collected during extended operation will support reliability analysis. Performance data from these tests is summarized in this paper.
A model is presented for times during a space mission that specified solar proton flux levels are exceeded. This includes both total time and continuous time periods during missions. Results for the solar maximum and solar minimum phases of the solar cycle are presented and compared for a broad range of proton energies and shielding levels. This type of approach is more amenable to reliability analysis for spacecraft systems and instrumentation than standard statistical models.
This paper proposes a reliability analysis framework for systems subject to multiple design requirements that depend polynomially on the uncertainty. Uncertainty is prescribed by probability boxes, also known as p-boxes, whose distribution functions have free or fixed functional forms. An approach based on the Bernstein expansion of polynomials and optimization is proposed. In particular, we search for the elements of a multi-dimensional p-box that minimize (i.e., the best-case) and maximize (i.e., the worst-case) the probability of inner and outer bounding sets of the failure domain. This technique yields intervals that bound the range of failure probabilities. The offset between this bounding interval and the actual failure probability range can be made arbitrarily tight with additional computational effort.
This paper demonstrates the use of Neural Networks as a device modeling tool to increase the reliability analysis accuracy of circuits targeted for space applications. The paper tackles a number of case studies of relevance to the design of Flight hardware. The results show that the proposed technique generates more accurate models than the ones regularly used to model circuits.
Flying a mission in space requires a massive commitment of resources, and without the talent and commitment of the people involved in this effort we would never leave the atmosphere of Earth. When we use the phrase "humans in the loop", it could apply to almost any endeavor since everything starts with humans developing a concept, completing the design process, building or implementing a product and using the product to achieve a goal or purpose. Narrowing the focus to spaceflights, there are a variety of individuals involved throughout the preparations for flight and the flight itself. All of the humans involved add value and support for program success. The purpose of this paper focuses on how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) accounts for the human in the loop for potential missions using a technique called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Human actions can increase or decrease the overall risk via initiating events or mitigating them, thus removing the human from the loop doesn't always lower the risk.
A multi-discipline team of experts from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed Mars surface power system point design solutions for two conceptual missions to Mars using In-situ resource utilization (ISRU). The primary goal of this study was to compare the relative merits of solar- versus fission-powered versions of each surface mission. First, the team compared three different solar-power options against a fission power system concept for a sub-scale, uncrewed demonstration mission. This “pathfinder” design utilized a 4.5 meter diameter lander. Its primary mission would be to demonstrate Mars entry, descent, and landing techniques. Once on the Martian surface, the lander’s ISRU payload would demonstrate liquid oxygen propellant production from atmospheric resources. For the purpose of this exercise, location was assumed to be at the Martian equator. The three solar concepts considered included a system that only operated during daylight hours (at roughly half the daily propellant production rate of a round-the-clock fission design), a battery-augmented system that operated through the night (matching the fission concept’s propellant production rate), and a system that operated only during daylight, but at a higher rate (again, matching the fission concept’s propellant production rate). Including 30% mass growth allowance, total payload masses for the three solar concepts ranged from 1,128 to 2,425 kg, versus the 2,751 kg fission power scheme. However, solar power masses increase as landing sites are selected further from the equator, making landing site selection a key driver in the final power system decision. The team also noted that detailed reliability analysis should be performed on daytime-only solar power schemes to assess potential issues with frequent ISRU system on/off cycling.
Flying a mission in space requires a massive commitment of resources, and without the talent and commitment of the people involved in this effort we would never leave the atmosphere of Earth as safely as we have. When we use the phrase "humans in the loop", it could apply to almost any endeavor since everything starts with humans developing a concept, completing the design process, building or implementing a product and using the product to achieve a goal or purpose. Narrowing the focus to spaceflight, there are a variety of individuals involved throughout the preparations for flight and the flight itself. All of the humans involved add value and support for program success. The paper discusses the concepts of human involvement in technological programs, how a Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) accounts for the human in the loop for potential missions using a technique called Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and the tradeoffs between having a human in the loop or not. Human actions can increase or decrease the overall risk via initiating events or mitigating them, thus removing the human from the loop doesn't always lowers the risk.
In reliability analysis, especially for launch vehicles, limited data is frequently a problem. Component data from other environments must be used. MIL-HBK-338 has a matrix showing the conversation between environments. Due to round off the conversions are not commutative, converting from A to B will not equal converting from B to A. Agenda: Introduction to environment conversions; Original table; Original table with edits; How big is the problem?; First attempt at correction; Proposed solution.
In reliability analysis for space launch vehicles, limited data is frequently a challenge due to the pure number of launches. A common solution is to use surrogate historical data of similar components from other industries (military data). The operating environment of the common data may be different from that of the necessary target analysis. The military electronic design handbook (MIL-HDBK-338) has a table for converting Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF) data from one environment to another. However, the table has some discrepancies and rounding of complementary conversions; namely going from environment A to B does not given the same result as going from B to A. This presentation will show the discrepancies in the original conversation table, the greater than expected magnitude, the problem with the updated published table and a suggested corrected table to reference when doing MTBF data environment conversion.
The building of a spacecraft is complex and often involves multiple suppliers and companies that have their own designs and processes. Standards have been developed across the industries to reduce the chances for critical flight errors at the system level, but the spacecraft is still vulnerable to the introduction of critical errors during integration of these systems. Critical errors can occur at any time during the process and in many cases, human reliability analysis (HRA) identifies human error as a risk driver. Most programs have a test plan in place that is intended to catch these errors, but it is not uncommon for schedule and cost stress to result in less testing than initially planned. Therefore, integrated testing, or "testing as you fly," is essential as a final check on the design and assembly to catch any errors prior to the mission. This presentation will outline the unique benefits of integrated testing by catching critical flight errors that can otherwise go undetected, discuss HRA methods that are used to identify opportunities for human error, lessons learned and challenges over ownership of testing will be discussed.
The optimization of composite structural joints is an iterative process and a multiscale problem. High fidelity finite element modeling of joints with 3D woven and laminated materials can become computationally expensive. The aim of this paper is to establish a reliable analysis process for the optimization of a composite Y-joint (curved Pi-joint), to be used in an aircraft fuselage, using commercial rapid joint design, analysis, and optimization software. The rapid joint design tool was investigated as a substitute and/or complement to a finite element analysis software. A composite Pi-joint and a composite Y-joint were evaluated using the rapid joint design tool to determine the applicability and limits of the software. Furthermore, three main preliminary parametric studies were performed to better understand the capability of the tool in predicting the stress distributions and trends in the Y-joint. The parameters investigated were the joint curvature, the laminated skin thickness, the adhesive systems, and the ply composition. Lastly, trends in predicted failure load were produced as a function of skin thickness (16ply, 24ply and 32ply). Failure loads were found with varying joint curvature and skin thickness using stress-based adherend failure criterion. The rapid joint design tool was also validated against existing experimental results.