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Understanding and Utilizing PBL Height Data from Multiple Observing Systems in the GEOS System

The accuracy of PBL height simulation is a key issue in many applications including forecasting near surface meteorology and air quality, however, it is a very challenging problem due to the lack of not only comprehensive, global Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) observations but also a strategy and infrastructure to utilize PBL height data from a variety of sensors. Following the designation of PBL as an incubation class observable in the 2017 Decadal Survey, the PBL Incubation Study Team Report [14] made clear that “a future global PBL observing system requires modeling and data assimilation as essential components.” There is an urgent need for global modeling development in order to utilize Program of Record (POR) observations, assess their impacts, and identify gaps to be filled by future PBL missions. Our overall objective is to develop PBL data assimilation capabilities in the NASA Global Earth Observing System (GEOS), focusing on PBL height from multiple observing systems, to support the assessment and use of future PBL observations. The NASA GEOS system is composed of the GEOS global atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the atmospheric data assimilation system (ADAS). The PBL parameterizations include the “Lock” K-profile scheme driven by surface and cloud-top buoyancy fluxes ([4]), and the “Louis” local scheme for stable conditions based on the Richardson number ([5]). Above the mixed layer defined by the Lock surface plume, shallow cumulus convection is represented by the mass flux scheme of [9]. Additional parameterizations are summarized in [1]. The ADAS employs the hybrid 4D Ensemble- Variational (EnVar) configuration ([15]), with the ensemble providing flow-dependent background error covariance information. The resultant analysis increments are fed back to the forecast model through the 4D incremental analysis update (IAU) approach ([11]). In this study, PBL height data are being or have been generated from radiosondes, GNSS RO, satellite (CATS, CALIPSO and ICESat-2) and ground-based (MPLNET) lidars, and wind profiler. Investigations have been conducted to specify quality marks for PBL height retrievals for the data assimilation purpose. These PBL height data have different strengths and weaknesses ([2], [3], [6], [7], [8], [10]), and the satellite PBL height data provide better global coverage and complement in-situ PBL height data. Radiosondes offer high accuracy and in situ measurement of temperature and humidity profiles, but with poor spatio-temporal sampling. The in-situ observing systems like MPLNET and wind profiler provide long history of PBL height records at each station. The GNSS RO based PBL height is retrieved based on the sharp gradients in refractivity profile that represent the fine vertical structure of temperature and moisture changes above the PBL. However, not all RO refractivity profiles reach the surface depending on location and regime, and RO refractivity retrievals can be negatively biased below 2km. The PBL height data from satellite lidars provide high resolution along track PBL height retrievals, but over land they are affected by previous day convective PBL aerosol and strongly associated with mixing layer and retrievals cannot be made below thick, attenuating clouds. A successful assimilation of PBL height data requires a thorough understanding of the observing method and the retrieval algorithm for each observing system in order to use the PBL height data from multiple observing systems properly. Due to the sensitivity of PBL height data to the observing method and choice of algorithm, it is important to use a model definition appropriate for each observation type to compute differences between PBL height data and model PBL height (OmFs). The GEOS model currently includes two PBL height definitions suitable for direct comparison with observed PBL height, and additional definitions are being added in this study. Evaluation of different model PBL height definitions is underway. Meanwhile, efforts have been made in the GEOS data assimilation system to develop PBL height data assimilation capability. PBL height data can be assimilated using two different approaches. The traditional approach is to construct an observation operator and its tangent linear and adjoint, which link control variables to PBL height data from each observing system. This observation operator can be very complicated, e.g., the lidar-based PBL height observation operator includes the backscatter lidar forward observation operator, the algorithm to derive PBL height from attenuated total backscatter, interpolation, and calculations handling the mismatch between observed and model scales. The other approach is to augment PBL height to the control variable vector, and it is adopted in this study. The latter approach was also used in previous studies, e.g., the assimilation of PBL height data from radiosonde and aircraft in the Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) system for a dispersion modelling study ([13]); the PBL height assimilation study using lidar PBL height data at Greensburg, Kansas for a field campaign ([12]). The PBL height assimilation from multiple observing systems in this study allows us to take advantage of the diverse PBL height data that provide much better global coverage collectively under different meteorological conditions and with different temporal and spatial scales. As all the PBL heights are tightly coupled with the PBL thermodynamic variables, the strong correlations, which are provided by the 4D ensemble forecast, enable PBL height data from various sources to interact and combine coherently and provide additional information for PBL temperature and moisture fields. The results of comparisons among PBL height data from different sources and the evaluation of the model PBL height definitions with the PBL height data will be presented, and the PBL height data synergy strategies and preliminary results will also be discussed at the conference.

Y. Zhu↗
NASA NTRS2000

On the Origin and Evolution of Stellar Chromospheres, Coronae and Winds

This grant was awarded by NASA to The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) to construct state-of-the-art, theoretical, two-component, chromospheric models for single stars of different spectral types and different evolutionary status. In our proposal, we suggested to use these models to predict the level of the "basal flux", the observed range of variation of chromospheric activity for a given spectral type, and the decrease of this activity with stellar age. In addition, for red giants and supergiants, we also proposed to construct self-consistent, purely theoretical wind models, and used these models to investigate the origin of "dividing lines" in the H-R diagram. In the following, we describe our completed work. We have accomplished the first main goal of our proposal by constructing first purely theoretical, time-dependent and two-component models of stellar chromospheres.1 The models require specifying only three basic stellar parameters, namely, the effective temperature, gravity and rotation rate, and they take into account non-magnetic and magnetic regions in stellar chromospheres. The non-magnetic regions are heated by acoustic waves generated by the turbulent convection in the stellar subphotospheric layers. The magnetic regions are identified with magnetic flux tubes uniformly distributed over the entire stellar surface and they are heated by longitudinal tube waves generated by turbulent motions in the subphotospheric and photospheric layers. The coverage of stellar surface by magnetic regions (the so-called filling factor) is estimated for a given rotation rate from an observational relationship. The constructed models are time-dependent and are based on the energy balance between the amount of mechanical energy supplied by waves and radiative losses in strong Ca II and Mg II emission lines. To calculate the amount of wave energy in the non-magnetic regions, we have used the Lighthill-Stein theory for sound generation.

Musielak, Z. E.↗
NASA NTRS2020

X-ray Spectra of the Fe-L Complex II: Atomic Data Constraints from the EBIT Experiment and X-Ray Grating Observations of Capella

The Hitomi results for the Perseus cluster have shown that accurate atomic models are essential to the success of X-ray spectroscopic missions and just as important as the store of knowledge on instrumental calibration and astrophysical modeling. Preparing the models requires a multifaceted approach, including theoretical calculations, laboratory measurements, and calibration using real observations. In a previous paper, we presented a calculation of the electron impact cross sections on the transitions forming the Fe-L complex. In the present work, we systematically tested the calculation against cross-sections of ions measured in an electron beam ion trap experiment. A two-dimensional analysis in the electron beam energies and X-ray photon energies was utilized to disentangle radiative channels following dielectronic recombination, direct electron-impact excitation, and resonant excitation processes in the experimental data. The data calibrated through laboratory measurements were further fed into a global modeling of the Chandra grating spectrum of Capella. We investigated and compared the fit quality, as well as the sensitivity of the derived physical parameters to the underlying atomic data and the astrophysical plasma modeling. We further list the potential areas of disagreement between the observations and the present calculations, which, in turn, calls for renewed efforts with regard to theoretical calculations and targeted laboratory measurements.

Liyi Gu↗
NASA NTRS2006

Iterative Mechanism Solutions with Scenario and ADAMS

This slide presentation reviews the use of iterative solutions using Scenario for Motion (UG NX 2 Motion) to assist in designing the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL). The MSL will have very unique design requirements, and in order to meet these requirements the system must have the ability to design for static stability, simulate mechanism kinematics, simulate dynamic behaviour and be capable of reconfiguration, and iterations as designed. The legacy process used on the Mars Exploration rovers worked, but it was cumbersome using multiple tools, limited configuration control, with manual process and communication, and multiple steps. The aim is to develop a mechanism that would reduce turn around time, and make more reiterations possible, to improve the quality and quantity of data, and to enhance configuration control. Currently for NX Scenario for Motion uses are in the articulation studies, the simulations of traverse motions,and subsystem simulations. The design of the Rover landing model requires accurate results, flexible elements, such as beams, and the use of the full ADAMS solver has been used. In order to achieve this, when required, there has been a direct translation from Scenario to ADAMS, with additional data in ascii format. The process that has been designed to move from Scenario to ADAMS is reviewed.

Mars Science Laboratory (MSL)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Particle trajectory representation learning with masked point modeling

Liquid argon time projection chambers (LArTPCs) offer millimeter-scale 3D images of particle trajectories, enabling precision studies of neutrino oscillation, detection of supernova and solar neutrinos, searches for exotic dark matter, and proton decay. Current approaches utilize supervised machine learning models, requiring extensive simulations of particle physics and detector response that can introduce bias. Self-supervised learning (SSL), a machine learning approach that learns useful representations of unlabeled data from the data itself, has significantly advanced how large datasets are utilized for representation learning; however, its potential for applications to sensory data in high precision particle physics experiments remains largely unexplored. We introduce the Point-based liquid argon masked autoencoder (PoLAr-MAE), a self-supervised framework that learns physically meaningful representations directly from unlabeled LArTPC images. PoLAr-MAE achieves remarkable data efficiency for a point-level segmentation task, outperforming fully supervised methods in low data regimes. Linear classifiers on model outputs demonstrate robust performance across multiple downstream tasks. Our results position sensor-level SSL as a practical foundation model strategy for LArTPCs.

Young, Samuel [Stanford Univ., CA (United States)]↗
NASA NTRS2019

Micro-scale Artificial Weave Generation Capabilities for Thermal Protection System Material Modeling

Thermal Protection System (TPS) modeling requires accurate representation and prediction of the thermomechanical behavior of ablative materials. State-of-the-art TPS materials such as Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) have a proven flight record and demonstrate exceptional capabilities for handling extreme aerothermal heating conditions. The constant push for lightweight materials that are flexible in their design and performance, and hence allow for a wide range of mission profiles, has led NASA over the past years to develop its Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET). HEEET is based primarily on a dual layer woven carbon fiber architecture and the technology has successfully been tested in arc-jet facilities. These recent developments have sparked interest in the accurate micro-scale modeling of composite weave architectures, to predict the structural response of macro-scale heatshields upon atmospheric entry. This effort can be extended to incorporate in-depth failure mechanics analyses as a result of local thermal gradients or high-velocity particle impact.

Visser, Sander J.↗
NASA NTRS1991

The advanced software development workstation project

The Advanced Software Development Workstation (ASDW) task is researching and developing the technologies required to support Computer Aided Software Engineering (CASE) with the emphasis on those advanced methods, tools, and processes that will be of benefit to support all NASA programs. Immediate goals are to provide research and prototype tools that will increase productivity, in the near term, in projects such as the Software Support Environment (SSE), the Space Station Control Center (SSCC), and the Flight Analysis and Design System (FADS) which will be used to support the Space Shuttle and Space Station Freedom. Goals also include providing technology for development, evolution, maintenance, and operations. The technologies under research and development in the ASDW project are targeted to provide productivity enhancements during the software life cycle phase of enterprise and information system modeling, requirements generation and analysis, system design and coding, and system use and maintenance. On-line user's guides will assist users in operating the developed information system with knowledge base expert assistance.

Fridge, Ernest M., III↗
NASA NTRS1990

Surrogate oracles, generalized dependency and simpler models

Software reliability models require the sequence of interfailure times from the debugging process as input. It was previously illustrated that using data from replicated debugging could greatly improve reliability predictions. However, inexpensive replication of the debugging process requires the existence of a cheap, fast error detector. Laboratory experiments can be designed around a gold version which is used as an oracle or around an n-version error detector. Unfortunately, software developers can not be expected to have an oracle or to bear the expense of n-versions. A generic technique is being investigated for approximating replicated data by using the partially debugged software as a difference detector. It is believed that the failure rate of each fault has significant dependence on the presence or absence of other faults. Thus, in order to discuss a failure rate for a known fault, the presence or absence of each of the other known faults needs to be specified. Also, in simpler models which use shorter input sequences without sacrificing accuracy are of interest. In fact, a possible gain in performance is conjectured. To investigate these propositions, NASA computers running LIC (RTI) versions are used to generate data. This data will be used to label the debugging graph associated with each version. These labeled graphs will be used to test the utility of a surrogate oracle, to analyze the dependent nature of fault failure rates and to explore the feasibility of reliability models which use the data of only the most recent failures.

Wilson, Larry↗
NASA NTRS2009

Meridional Flow Variations Over Three Solar Cycles - What Happened in Cycle 23?

The meridional flow speed determines the strength of the Sun s polar fields in both surface flux transport models and in flux transport dynamos. The polar fields produced during cycle 23 were half as strong as those produced in the previous two cycles. Helioseismic measurements of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 indicated a decrease in flow velocity. This observation was used in flux transport dynamo models to predict a delayed start for cycle 24 and was consistent with weak polar fields and a slower equatorward drift of the active latitudes during cycle 23. On the other hand, the surface flux transport models require a faster meridional flow to produce the weak polar fields. We have begun measurements of the surface meridional flow by tracking the motions of weak (outside active regions) magnetic field elements in magnetograms from SOHO/MDI over cycle 23 and from NSO/Kitt Peak over cycles 21 to 23. We confirm the slowdown of the meridional flow over the rising phase of cycle 23 but find that the flow speed returned to its previous level during the declining phase of cycle 23. Furthermore, this appears to be a normal feature of the meridional flow during sunspot cycles. The flow is fast at minima and slow at maxima. The lack of a significantly different meridional flow during cycle 23 is very problematic for both surface flux transport models and flux transport dynamos.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Automatic Medium to High Fidelity Low-Thrust Global Trajectory Toolchain; EMTG-GMAT

Solving the global optimization, low-thrust, multiple-flyby interplanetary trajectory problem with high-fidelity dynamical models requires an unreasonable amount of computational resources. A better approach, and one that is demonstrated in this paper, is a multi-step process whereby the solution of the aforementioned problem is solved at a lower-fidelity and this solution is used as an initial guess for a higher-fidelity solver. The framework presented in this work uses two tools developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center: the Evolutionary Mission Trajectory Generator (EMTG) and the General Mission Analysis Tool (GMAT). EMTG is a medium to medium-high fidelity low-thrust interplanetary global optimization solver, which now has the capability to automatically generate GMAT script files for seeding a high-fidelity solution using GMAT's local optimization capabilities. A discussion of the dynamical models as well as thruster and power modeling for both EMTG and GMAT are given in this paper. Current capabilities are demonstrated with examples that highlight the toolchains ability to efficiently solve the difficult low-thrust global optimization problem with little human intervention.

low thrust↗
NASA NTRS2015

Determination of the Contact Angle Based on the Casimir Effect

In several crystal growth processed based on capillarity, a melt comes into contact with a crucible wall at an angle defined as the contact angle. For molten metals and semiconductors, this contact angle is dependent upon both the crucible and melt material and typical values fall in the range 80-170deg. However, on a microscopic scale, there does not exist a precise and sharp contact angle but rather the melt and solid surfaces merge smoothly and continuously over a distance of up to several micrometers. Accurate modeling requires a more advanced treatment of this interaction. The interaction between the melt and solid surfaces can be calculated by considering two forces: a short-range repulsive force and a longer range (up to a few micrometers) Casimir force. The Casimir force between the two bodies of complex geometry is calculated using a retarded temperature Green's function (Matsubara type) for the photon in the medium. The governing equations are cast in the form of a set of boundary integral equations which are then solved numerically for the case of molten Ge on SiO2. The shape of the molten surface approaching the flat solid body is determined, and the contact angle is defined as the angle between the two surfaces at the microscopically asymptotic distance of 1-2 micrometers. The formulation of this model and the results of the numerical calculations will be presented and discussed.

Mazuruk, K.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Palinspastic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona for the middle Miocene

A paleogeographic reconstruction of southeastern California and southwestern Arizona at 10 Ma was made based on available geologic and geophysical data. Clockwise rotation of 39 deg was reconstructed in the eastern Transverse Ranges, consistent with paleomagnetic data from late Miocene volcanic rocks, and with slip estimates for left-lateral faults within the eastern Transverse Ranges and NW-trending right lateral faults in the Mojave Desert. This domain of rotated rocks is bounded by the Pinto Mountain fault on the north. In the absence of evidence for rotation of the San Bernardino Mountains or for significant right slip faults within the San Bernardino Mountains, the model requires that the late Miocene Pinto Mountain fault become a thrust fault gaining displacement to the west. The Squaw Peak thrust system of Meisling and Weldon may be a western continuation of this fault system. The Sheep Hole fault bounds the rotating domain on the east. East of this fault an array of NW-trending right slip faults and south-trending extensional transfer zones has produced a basin and range physiography while accumulating up to 14 km of right slip. This maximum is significantly less than the 37.5 km of right slip required in this region by a recent reconstruction of the central Mojave Desert. Geologic relations along the southern boundary of the rotating domain are poorly known, but this boundary is interpreted to involve a series of curved strike slip faults and non-coaxial extension, bounded on the southeast by the Mammoth Wash and related faults in the eastern Chocolate Mountains. Available constraints on timing suggest that Quaternary movement on the Pinto Mountain and nearby faults is unrelated to the rotation of the eastern Transverse Ranges, and was preceded by a hiatus during part of Pliocene time which followed the deformation producing the rotation. The reconstructed Clemens Well fault in the Orocopia Mountains, proposed as a major early Miocene strand of the San Andreas fault, projects eastward towards Arizona, where early Miocene rocks and structures are continuous across its trace. The model predicts a 14 deg clockwise rotation and 55 km extension along the present trace of the San Andreas fault during late Miocene and early Pliocene time. Palinspastic reconstructions of the San Andreas system based on this proposed reconstruction may be significantly modified from current models.

Richard, Stephen M.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Improving Lightning NO(x) Parameterizations for Global Chemical Transport Models

Parameterization of lightning NO(x) in global chemical transport models requires a method to specify the temporal and geographic distribution of flash rates, an estimate of NO production per flash, and a method to specify the effective vertical distribution of NO production. Flash rate parameterizations using the upward convective cloud mass flux have been developed and tested for several GCM and assimilated meteorological data sets. This parameterization and others involving the cloud-top height and convective precipitation provide a generally acceptable climatological distribution of flashes after normalization with satellite data. However, considerable improvement in terms of geographic and temporal variability may be achieved in the future using cloud microphysics data available from next-generation GCMs. Cloud-resolving case-study simulations of convective transport and lightning NO production have yielded results which are directly applicable to the NO production per flash and the vertical NO distribution portions of the global model lightning parameterizations. In this work we have used cloud-resolving models (the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE) and MM5) to drive an off-line cloud-scale chemical transport model (CSCTM). The CSCTM, in conjunction with aircraft measurements of NO(x) in thunderstorms and ground-based lightning observations, has been used to constrain the amount of NO produced per flash. Observed lightning flash rates have been incorporated into the CSCTM, and several scenarios of NO production per intracloud (IC) and per cloud-to-ground (CG) flash have been tested in each of several case study storms. The resulting NO(x) mixing ratios are compared with aircraft measurements taken within the storm (typically the anvil region) to determine the most likely NO production scenario. The range of values of NO production per flash (or per meter of lightning channel length) that have been deduced from the model will be shown and compared with values of production in the literature that have been deduced from observed NO spikes and from anvil flux calculations. Results show that on a per flash basis, IC flashes are nearly as productive of NO as CG flashes. Estimates of mean NO production per flash vary by a factor of three from one simulated storm to another. Vertical profiles of lightning NOx mass at the end of the 3-D storm simulations have been summarized to yield suggested profiles for use in global models. These profiles show a larger percentage of the total lightning NO(x) mass in the free troposphere than those suggested by Pickering et al. (1998).

Pickering, Kenneth E.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved Charge Sensing on a SiMOS Double Quantum Dot using a Cryogenic Skipper Readout ASIC (Quandarum)

Major outstanding questions in high-energy physics such as the nature of dark matter and the existence of interactions beyond the standard model require new measurement techniques which are extremely sensitive to minute electromagnetic fields. An array of entangled spin qubits is a promising system for building novel detectors due to its combination of sensitivity and controllability. CMOS-based electron spin qubits, which have demonstrated the operational requirements for fault-tolerant quantum computing [1], offer a particular opportunity due to their compatibility with classical electronics, which allows the leveraging of decades of development of low-noise cryogenic detectors for physics. In this work, we combine a SiMOS double-quantum dot device architecture with a state-of-the-art cryoelectronic readout circuit [2-3] aimed to demonstrate improved charge readout using a single-electron transistor (SET). We identify the design characteristics for an SET that facilitate the use of on-chip classical electronics as a low-power, high-bandwidth first amplification stage and explore opportunities for sensor-readout co-design to minimize noise. This is the first of a series of steps to demonstrate high-fidelity readout of a large array of spin qubit with enough sensitivity to probe processes of interest for the investigation of beyond-standard-model physics.

Quinn, Adam [Fermilab]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Roadmap and Benchmarking: Privacy in Federated Load Forecasting

Data-driven techniques for energy demand forecasting continue to emerge with promising impacts on distribution grid planning. However, the development of robust and generalizable machine learning models requires that representative high quality training data are available. Distributed energy resources have begun to embed intelligence, gathering large amounts of data on customer demand, behavior, and household devices that are connected to the grid. Though utilities aggregate meter-level demand data for load shaping, demand response, outage management, reliability planning, and billing applications, there lies an inherent privacy concern in sharing consumption data that may identify individual consumer behavioral patterns. Hence, while sharing the data is crucial, the private sensitive customer data must be safeguarded from being exposed or manipulated. In this study, we propose a roadmap for implementing a based privacy preserving framework to support the advancement of data-driven analytics in data-sensitive distributed energy resources environments. The roadmap incorporates federated learning–a distributed training framework, differential privacy–a statistical framework that provides guarantees to safeguard the leakage of sensitive data, secure multiparty computation and homomorphic encryption– techniques for encrypting model gradients and applying secure aggregation on the server. Moreover, we perform baseline experiments on the federated short-term load forecasting (STLF) task using open-source residential load profile datasets, offering insights into the challenges of integrating differential privacy into federated learning.

Abebe, Waqwoya [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN↗
NASA NTRS1998

Bioregenerative life support: not a picnic

If humans are to live permanently in space, regenerative life support systems are an enabling technology and must replace the picnic approach of taking all supplies required for each mission. These systems are classified by technologies as either physical/chemical or bioregenerative. Both of these system-types can recycle water, remove carbon dioxide, produce oxygen, and recover essential elements from waste products. Bioregenerative can also produce food, thus, making it essential if humans are to exist in space independent of earth. A solely bioregenerative life support system includes plants as a biomass production module and microbial organisms in bioreactors as a resource recovery module. In the Advanced Life Support Program, bioregenerative life support systems are being investigated through a research and technology development project which includes large scale testing as part of the Breadboard Project and human tests conducted in the soon to be constructed BioPlex facility. Research and technology development efforts are directed toward optimizing biomass productivity in controlled chambers by developing light weight, energy efficient, and automated systems; recycling liquid and solid wastes; baselining the operation of bioreactors; determining system microbial stability; assessing chemical contamination; and building models required for long term system operations. The program will include space flight studies in the near future to determine if these life support technologies will function in microgravity. When a bioregenerative system is finally incorporated into a mission, the conversion from a picnic and resupply mentality to permanent recycling and independence from earth will be complete.

NASA Center KSC↗
NASA NTRS2021

Methodology to Assess the Changing Risk of Yield Failure Due to Heat and Drought Stress Under Climate Change

While the understanding of average impacts of climate change on crop yields is improving, few assessments have quantified expected impacts on yield distributions and the risk of yield failures. Here we present the relative distribution as a method to assess how the risk of yield failure due to heat and drought stress (measured in terms of return period between yields falling 15% below previous five year Olympic average yield) responds to changes of the underlying yield distributions under climate change. Relative distributions are used to capture differences in the entire yield distribution between baseline and climate change scenarios, and to further decompose them into changes in the location and shape of the distribution. The methodology is applied here for the case of rainfed wheat and grain maize across Europe using an ensemble of crop models under three climate change scenarios with simulations conducted at 25 km resolution. Under climate change, maize generally displayed shorter return periods of yield failures (with changes under RCP 4.5 between −0.3 and 0 years compared to the baseline scenario) associated with a shift of the yield distribution towards lower values and changes in shape of the distribution that further reduced the frequency of high yields. This response was prominent in the areas characterized in the baseline scenario by high yields and relatively long return periods of failure. Conversely, for wheat, yield failures were projected to become less frequent under future scenarios (with changes in the return period of −0.1 to +0.4 years under RCP 4.5) and were associated with a shift of the distribution towards higher values and a change in shape increasing the frequency of extreme yields at both ends. Our study offers an approach to quantify the changes in yield distributions that drive crop yield failures. Actual risk assessments additionally require models that capture the variety of drivers determining crop yield variability and scenario climate input data that samples the range of probable climate variation.

Climate risk assessment↗
DOE OSTI2025

On High-Order/Low-Order and Micro-Macro Methods for Implicit Time-Stepping of the BGK Model

In this paper, a high-order/low-order (HOLO) method is combined with a micro-macro (MM) decomposition to accelerate iterative solvers in fully implicit time-stepping of the Bhatnagar–Gross–Krook (BGK) equation for gas dynamics. The MM formulation represents a kinetic distribution as the sum of a local Maxwellian and a perturbation. In highly collisional regimes, the perturbation away from initial and boundary layers is small and can be compressed to reduce the overall storage cost of the distribution. The convergence behavior of the MM methods, the usual HOLO method, and the standard source iteration method is analyzed on a linear BGK model. Both the HOLO and MM methods are implemented using a discontinuous Galerkin (DG) discretization in phase space, which naturally preserves the consistency between high- and low-order models required by the HOLO approach. Furthermore, the accuracy and performance of these methods are compared on the Sod shock tube problem and a sudden wall heating boundary layer problem. Overall, the results demonstrate the robustness of the MM and HOLO approaches and illustrate the compression benefits enabled by the MM formulation when the kinetic distribution is near equilibrium.

BGK model↗