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NASA NTRS2014

The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble Model (GCE): Improvements and Applications for Studying Precipitation Processes

Convection is the primary transport process in the Earth's atmosphere. About two-thirds of the Earth's rainfall and severe floods derive from convection. In addition, two-thirds of the global rain falls in the tropics, while the associated latent heat release accounts for three-fourths of the total heat energy for the Earth's atmosphere. Cloud-resolving models (CRMs) have been used to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes and phenomena from micro-scale to cloud-scale and mesoscale as well as their interactions with radiation and surface processes. CRMs use sophisticated and realistic representations of cloud microphysical processes and can reasonably well resolve the time evolution, structure, and life cycles of clouds and cloud systems. CRMs also allow for explicit interaction between clouds, outgoing longwave (cooling) and incoming solar (heating) radiation, and ocean and land surface processes. Observations are required to initialize CRMs and to validate their results. The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble model (GCE) has been developed and improved at NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center over the past three decades. It is amulti-dimensional non-hydrostatic CRM that can simulate clouds and cloud systems in different environments. Early improvements and testing were presented in Tao and Simpson (1993) and Tao et al. (2003a). A review on the application of the GCE to the understanding of precipitation processes can be found in Simpson and Tao (1993) and Tao (2003). In this paper, recent model improvements (microphysics, radiation and land surface processes) are described along with their impact and performance on cloud and precipitation events in different geographic locations via comparisons with observations. In addition, recent advanced applications of the GCE are presented that include understanding the physical processes responsible for diurnal variation, examining the impact of aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei or CCN and ice nuclei or IN) on precipitation processes, utilizing a satellite simulator to improve the microphysics, providing better simulations for satellite-derived latent heating retrieval, and coupling with a general circulation model to improve the representation of precipitation processes.

GCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hy-DAT: A Tool to Address Hydropower Modeling Gaps Using Interdependency, Efficiency Curves, and Unit Dispatch Models

As the power system continues to be flooded with intermittent resources, it becomes more important to accurately assess the role of hydro and its impact on the power grid. While hydropower generation has been studied for decades, dependency of power generation on water availability and constraints in hydro operation are not well represented in power system models used in the planning and operation of large-scale interconnection studies. There are still multiple modeling gaps that need to be addressed; if not, they can lead to inaccurate operation and planning reliability studies, and consequently to unintentional load shedding or even blackouts. As a result, it is very important thathydropower is represented correctly in both steady-state and dynamic power system studies. In this paper, we discuss the development and use of the Hydrological Dispatch and Analysis Tool (Hy-DAT) as an interactive graphical user interface (GUI), that uses a novel methodology to address the hydropower modeling gaps like water availability and inter-dependency using a database, and algorithms, to generate accurate representative models for power system simulation.

Wang, Dewei↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive for Manuscript Titled "Evaluation of a Coupled Surface–Subsurface Hydrologic Model Using Dense Water‑Level Sensors in a Mixed Urban–Rural Watershed"

This archive provides scripts, input files, and datasets used for the implementation and evaluation of a fully coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic model in the Neches River Basin, southeast Texas. The study uses the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) to simulate coupled surface–subsurface hydrologic processes over a mixed urban–rural watershed and evaluates model performance using a dense network of 136 in situ water-level sensors, nine U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges, and SSEBop-derived evapotranspiration estimates during the period October 2014–June 2024. The workflow is implemented primarily in Python 3 using the Watershed Workflow package. The Jupyter notebooks can be executed using open-source software such as Anaconda JupyterLab or Visual Studio Code. Other data files include TXT, CSV, XML, SHP, TIF, NetCDF, HDF5, and ExodusII files, which can be processed using the provided Python scripts. ATS input files are provided in XML format and can be edited using any commonly used text editor. This archive contains: *Scripts and input files used to generate the ATS model setup, including watershed discretization, mesh generation, parameter mapping, and model configuration. *Jupyter notebooks used for preprocessing observational data, evaluating streamflow, water levels, and evapotranspiration, computing performance metrics, and generating the figures presented in the manuscript. *ATS simulation outputs and processed observational datasets, including OneRain and DD6 water-level sensors, USGS streamflow observations, GIS data, and supporting spatial datasets used throughout the study.

Dense water-level sensor network↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metallorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greater than 16 percent AMO) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AMO efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, Raj K.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of heteroepitaxial indium phosphide solar cells

Metalorganic chemical-vapor-deposited heteroepitaxial indium phosphide (InP) solar cell experimental results were simulated by using a PC-1D computer model. The effect of emitter parameter variation on the performance of n(+)/p/p(+) heteroepitaxial InP/GaAs solar cell was presented. The thinner and lighter doped emitters were observed to offer higher cell efficiencies. The influence of emitter thickness and minority carrier diffusion length on the cell efficiency with respect to dislocation density was studied. Heteroepitaxial cells with efficiencies similar to present day homojunction InP efficiencies (greaater than 16 percent AM0) were shown to be attainable if a dislocation density lower than 10(exp 6)/sq cm could be achieved. A realistic optimized design study yielded InP solar cells of over 22 percent AM0 efficiency at 25 C.

Jain, R. K.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computing Reaction Kinetics with MC-PDFT–OPESf: Combining Multireference Electronic Structure Theory and Enhanced Sampling

Accurate rate constants are crucial for understanding and optimizing catalytic reactions mediated by enzymes, metalloproteins, and heterogeneous catalysts. These systems frequently present a dual computational challenge. Multiconfigurational reaction sites require multireference techniques for the accurate treatment of the electronic structure, and high activation barriers prevent efficient sampling of unbiased reactive transitions. In this work, we combine multiconfiguration pair-density functional theory (MC-PDFT) as an accurate and efficient multireference electronic structure method with on-the-fly probability-enhanced sampling flooding (OPESf) as an enhanced sampling method capable of accelerating reactive transitions. We demonstrate the approach on the Diels–Alder [4+2] cycloaddition between cis-butadiene and ethene as a reaction characterized by a large activation barrier and multireference character. MC-PDFT–OPESf provides reaction rates in agreement with experiments at a fraction of the computational cost required by conventional unbiased ab initio calculations. Here, we propose MC-PDFT–OPESf as an efficient approach for computing kinetics in strongly correlated molecular systems.

Chemical calculations↗

NASA NTRS2008

Constitutive Soil Properties for Unwashed Sand and Kennedy Space Center

Accurate soil models are required for numerical simulations of land landings for the Orion Crew Exploration Vehicle. This report provides constitutive material models for one soil, unwashed sand, from NASA Langley's gantry drop test facility and three soils from Kennedy Space Center (KSC). The four soil models are based on mechanical and compressive behavior observed during geotechnical laboratory testing of remolded soil samples. The test specimens were reconstituted to measured in situ density and moisture content. Tests included: triaxial compression, hydrostatic compression, and uniaxial strain. A fit to the triaxial test results defines the strength envelope. Hydrostatic and uniaxial tests define the compressibility. The constitutive properties are presented in the format of LS-DYNA Material Model 5: Soil and Foam. However, the laboratory test data provided can be used to construct other material models. The four soil models are intended to be specific to the soil conditions discussed in the report. The unwashed sand model represents clayey sand at high density. The KSC models represent three distinct coastal sand conditions: low density dry sand, high density in-situ moisture sand, and high density flooded sand. It is possible to approximate other sands with these models, but the results would be unverified without geotechnical tests to confirm similar soil behavior.

Thomas, Michael A.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Leveraging ARM Data to Improve Models for Predictive Understanding of Energy and Security Challenges

Extreme weather and natural hazards can disrupt the energy sector, affecting demand, generation, transmission, distribution, consumption and operational planning at regional and national scales. These disruptions stem from a broad range of atmospheric phenomena, including winter storms, freezing rain, wet snow loading, severe convection, flooding and landslides, wildfires, prolonged heat, and drought. Many of these same phenomena can also affect national security through impacts to transportation and infrastructure. To support the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) focus on energy resilience and national security, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility is uniquely positioned to contribute measurement data, analyses, and modeling frameworks that can significantly improve predictive understanding of these hazards to mitigate their effects. To explore this opportunity, ARM convened a two-part virtual workshop in November 2025. The workshop engaged interdisciplinary experts in atmospheric science, energy systems, modeling, and operations. The goal of the meeting was to engage with these interdisciplinary experts to address three questions: • What are examples of atmospheric processes that represent significant risks to energy security or national security and where are those risks greatest? • What measurements or measurement strategies would improve ARM’s capacity to address these issues? • How can ARM and users of the ARM facility better work with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and multi-sector modeling communities to apply ARM data to improving E3SM simulations of these phenomena? Participants were asked to submit white papers ahead of the meeting to initiate thinking on these themes and to help organize discussions. Workshop sessions were then organized around themes identified in the white papers. First from the white papers and then through subsequent discussions, workshop participants identified many examples that address the three questions listed above. Participants called out energy system vulnerabilities to weather phenomena such as the impact of freezing rain, strong winds, and excessive heat on power grids. They also noted the effects that weather phenomena could have on energy demand or supply (e.g., through effects of extreme temperatures). They called out security vulnerabilities such as impacts to crops from aerosol-borne pathogens and risks to industry due to melting permafrost in the Arctic. In all, over a dozen meteorological phenomena were linked to energy or security vulnerabilities. For many of the identified phenomena, participants pointed out where ARM was well poised to address issues (e.g., through measurements of cloud microphysics to inform studies of freezing rain) but also noted needs for additional measurements or modified measurement strategies. For example, adaptive scanning of severe weather would be valuable for probing winter storms or severe convection. Participants pointed out the value in integrating external observations with ARM measurements and with applying artificial intelligence (AI) to ARM observation analysis and they advocated for using model simulations to help optimize measurement strategies through Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs). It was clear from the workshop that there are many ways that ARM observations can be used to mitigate energy and security concerns, but meeting participants were also asked to identify what they considered to be the greatest opportunities by ranking issues pertaining to the three workshop questions. This was accomplished through a survey administered to participants between the two virtual sessions. The highest-priority phenomena identified were winter storms, severe convection, and arctic processes. Discussion in the second session, therefore, focused primarily on these three areas, which were most fully developed in exploring ARM opportunities. Nevertheless, it was also clear that ARM has opportunities to contribute to all the identified topics. This report describes the workshop, including input from discussion and white papers (Sections 2 and 3) and a list of priority recommendations (section 4). Many other ideas for ARM contributions are discussed in individual white papers (Appendix D).

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1994

Axial focusing of impact energy in the Earth's interior: Proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis

A causal link between major impact events and global processes would probably require a significant change in the thermal state of the Earth's interior, presumably brought about by coupling of impact energy. One possible mechanism for such energy coupling from the surface to the deep interior would be through focusing due to axial symmetry. Antipodal focusing of surface and body waves from earthquakes is a well-known phenomenon which has previously been exploited by seismologists in studies of the Earth's deep interior. Antipodal focusing from impacts on the Moon, Mercury, and icy satellites has also been invoked by planetary scientists to explain unusual surface features opposite some of the large impact structures on these bodies. For example, 'disrupted' terrains have been observed antipodal to the Caloris impact basis on Mercury and Imbrium Basin on the Moon. Very recently there have been speculations that antipodal focusing of impact energy within the mantle may lead to flood basalt and hotspot activity, but there has not yet been an attempt at a rigorous model. A new hypothesis was proposed and preliminary proof-of-principle tests for the coupling of energy from major impacts to the mantle by axial focusing of seismic waves was performed. Because of the axial symmetry of the explosive source, the phases and amplitudes are dependent only on ray parameter (or takeoff angle) and are independent of azimuthal angle. For a symmetric and homogeneous Earth, all the seismic energy radiated by the impact at a given takeoff angle will be refocused (minus attenuation) on the axis of symmetry, regardless of the number of reflections and refractions it has experienced. Mantle material near the axis of symmetry will experience more strain cycles with much greater amplitude than elsewhere and will therefore experience more irreversible heating. The situation is very different than for a giant earthquake, which in addition to having less energy, has an asymmetric focal mechanism and a larger area. Two independent proof-of-principle approaches were used. The first makes use of seismic simulations, which are being performed with a realistic Earth model to determine the degree of focusing along the axis and to estimate the volume of material, if any, that experiences significant irreversible heating. The second involves two-dimensional hydrodynamic code simulations to determine the stress history, internal energy, and temperature rise as a function of radius along the axis.

Boslough, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS2003

A Physical Validation Program for the GPM Mission

The GPM mission is currently planned for start in the late 2007 - early 2008 time frame. Its main scientific goal is to help answer pressing scientific problems arising within the context of global and regional water cycling. These problems cut across a hierarchy of scales and include climate-water cycle interactions, techniques for improving weather and climate predictions, and better methods for combining observed precipitation with hydrometeorological prediction models for applications to hazardous flood-producing storms, seasonal flood draught conditions, and fresh water resource assessments. The GPM mission will expand the scope of precipitation measurement through the use of a constellation of some 9 satellites, one of which will be an advanced TRMM-like core satellite carrying a dual-frequency Ku-Ka band precipitation radar and an advanced, multifrequency passive microwave radiometer with vertical-horizontal polarization discrimination. The other constellation members will include new dedicated satellites and co-existing operational/research satellites carrying similar (but not identical) passive microwave radiometers. The goal of the constellation is to achieve approximately 3-hour sampling at any spot on the globe -- continuously. The constellation's orbit architecture will consist of a mix of sun-synchronous and non-sun-synchronous satellites with the core satellite providing measurements of cloud-precipitation microphysical processes plus calibration-quality rainrate retrievals to be used with the other retrieval information to ensure bias-free constellation coverage. A major requirement before the retrieved rainfall information generated by the GPM mission can be used effectively by prognostic models to improve weather forecasts, hydrometeorological forecasts, and climate model reanalysis simulations is a capability to quantify the error characteristics of the retrievals. A solution for this problem has been upheld in past precipitation missions because of the lack of suitable error modeling systems incorporated into the validation programs and data distribution systems. An overview of how NASA intends to overcome this problem for the GPM mission using a physically-based error modeling approach within a multi-faceted validation program is described. The solution is to first identify specific user requirements and then determine the most stringent of these requirements that embodies all essential error characterization information needed by the entire user community. In the context of NASA s scientific agenda for the GPM mission, the most stringent user requirement is found within the data assimilation community. The fundamental theory of data assimilation vis-a-vis ingesting satellite precipitation information into the pre-forecast initializations is based on quantifying the conditional bias and precision errors of individual rain retrievals, and the space-time structure of the precision error (i.e., the spatial-temporal error covariance). By generating the hardware and software capability to produce this information in a near real-time fashion, and to couple the derived quantitative error properties to the actual retrieved rainrates, all key validation users can be satisfied. The talk will describe the essential components of the hardware and software systems needed to generate such near real-time error properties, as well as the various paradigm shifts needed within the validation community to produce a validation program relevant to the precipitation user community.

Smith, Eric A.↗

DOE OSTI2022

CO 2 zonal injection rate allocation and plume extent evaluation through wellbore temperature analysis

Temperature analysis during a pause in injection operations, known as warmback analysis, has been used in the petroleum industry for evaluating the injection conformance and estimating the location of the flooded front in applications, such as waterflooding oil reservoirs. Here in this work, methods are introduced to extend the application of temperature warmback analysis to estimate the zonal CO 2 injection rate and zonal CO 2 plume extent during geologic CO 2 storage in a saline aquifer. First, novel analytical solutions are developed to model transient temperature in the aquifer during the injection and subsequent shut-in periods considering two-phase flow (gaseous CO 2 and aqueous brine) conditions in the aquifer. The solution involves a discretization of the aquifer into regions; the energy and mass conservation equations for the regions are solved simultaneously considering appropriate boundary conditions at the interfaces. Two solutions techniques are presented: multi-region and three-region solutions. Inverse models are developed accordingly to evaluate the injection profile and estimate the extent of the plume front in the reservoir during the injection period. The multi-region solution results in an inversion approach that requires regression analysis. However, the three-region formulation results in a simple graphical technique for inverse modeling. The analytical solutions are validated against a thermally coupled reservoir simulation tool using different synthetic cases for CO 2 injection in deep saline aquifers. The results of the developed solutions provide a good match with numerical results during forward and inverse modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-Level Impacts of Extreme Climate-Related Events on Food Supply Chain: Idaho Potato's Case Study

Background: The world is experiencing frequent extreme weather events like droughts, floods, snowstorms, and shifting of seasons due to climate change. Increasing frequencies and severity of these extreme weather events threaten food security because agriculture is extremely vulnerable to climate change. Higher temperature reduces overall yields of the desirable crops but proliferates weeds and harmful pests. Current data shows that every year U.S. farmers spend more than 11 billion USD to fight weeds and this number is expected to rise in the coming years due to climate change. Due to droughts, the water required for irrigation is becoming scarcer. Since many areas are becoming climatically unusable for crop production, the amount of farmland area is shrinking rapidly. In addition, changes in precipitation patterns are causing crop failures and negatively impacting expected yields. In this study, we investigated how different extreme climate events impact different stages of a food supply chain. Approach: As a case study, we chose Idaho’s potato supply chain (SC). Idaho is the top potato producing state in the U.S. and contributes around 30% of the nation’s potato production. Using the agent-based modeling (ABM) approach, we developed a multi-echelon potato supply chain computer simulation model with six types of agents – seed producers, farmers, shippers, processors, retailers, and logistics companies. In addition to the baseline scenario, we developed two additional climate-related disruption events – drought and snowstorm. We investigated how each of these disruption events impacts different stakeholders across the supply chain in terms of revenue and some other key performance metrics such as lead time, food waste, number of delayed orders, and order fulfillment rate. Results: Extreme climate events not only impact the growers but there is also cascading ripple effects downstream of the supply chain. The methodology developed in this study could be applied to other food and agricultural SC to understand the vulnerabilities of the different links. The findings would potentially help to adopt new policies for the well-being of the overall SC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrodynamics of countercurrent flow in an additive-manufactured column with triply periodic minimal surfaces for carbon dioxide capture

Computational investigation of the countercurrent flows in an additively manufactured (AM) column packed with triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) is challenging. Multiphase flow simulations using the volume of fluid (VOF) method can explain the column’s hydrodynamic characteristics, including interfacial area, liquid holdup, pressure drop, flow regime, etc. The interfacial area is a key factor dictating the mass transfer via the absorption process, and thereby the overall efficiency of the column. The impacts of a solvent's physical properties, liquid and gas loads, and contact angle on the hydrodynamics are extensively explored. The solvents include traditional solvent (monoethanolamine [MEA]) used in industry as well as a water-lean solvent (EEMPA) as prospective solvents for carbon capture. As expected, interfacial area and liquid holdup increase with increasing liquid loads (q L ). The EEMPA exhibits higher values for the interfacial area and liquid holdup compared to those for the MEA. The dry and wet pressure drops per unit length in the column at different gas loads (F G ) are calculated and further compared with the empirical correlations for traditional packings. At low gas loads, i.e., in the preloading regime, the predicted values of the wet and dry pressure drops match well with the corresponding values calculated from available correlations. The gas load has a marginal impact on the interfacial area at its lower value, but the higher value of F G (>2.18 $\sqrt{Pa}$) causes flooding in the column. The effect of varying contact angles on the interfacial area and liquid holdup in the preloading regime is also studied. Both interfacial area and liquid holdup decrease with the increase in the value of the contact angle. Altogether, the effect of the contact angle on interfacial area is more pronounced than other parameters influencing the interfacial area.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1992

The origins of radial fracture systems and associated large lava flows on Venus

Magellan images have revealed the existence of systems of radial fractures on venus that are very similar in form to terrestrial dike swarms such as the Mackenzie swarm in Northern Canada. The association of many of the fracture systems with lava flows, calderas, and volcanic edifices further support the idea of a dike emplacement origin. A global survey of the Magellan images has allowed the location of 300 such fracture systems. Two types of fracture systems are defined. A series of models were developed to simulate the emplacement of dikes on Venus. Observations of fracture lengths and widths were then used to constrain the emplacement conditions. The model results show that the great length and relatively large width of the fractures can only be explained if the dikes that produce them were emplaced in high driving pressure (pressure buffered) conditions. Such conditions imply high rates of melt production, which is consistent with the melt being derived directly from a plume head. We have recently modeled the vertical emplacement of a dike from the top of a mantle plume and calculated the eruption rates such a dike would produce on reaching the surface. This modeling shows that eruption rates of approximately 0.1 cu km/hr can readily be generated by such a dike, consistent with the above results. However, the sensitivity of the model to dike width and therefore driving pressure means that eruption rates from dikes emplaced from the base of the crust or the head of a mantle plume could be orders of magnitude higher than this. Clearly, therefore, the model needs to be refined in order to better constrain eruption conditions. However, it is worth noting here that the initial results do show that even for moderate dike widths, eruption rates could be at least on the order of those estimated for terrestrial flood basalts.

Parfitt, Elisabeth A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

pyTCR: A tropical cyclone rainfall model for python

pyTCR is a climatology software package developed in the Python programming language. It integrates the capabilities of several legacy physical models and increases computational efficiency to allow rapid estimation of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall consistent with the large-scale environment. Specifically, pyTCR implements a horizontally distributed and vertically integrated model [Zhu et al., 2013] for simulating rainfall driven by TCs. Along storm tracks, rainfall is estimated by computing the cross-boundary-layer, upward water vapor transport caused by different mechanisms including frictional convergence, vortex stretching, large-scale baroclinic effect (i.e., wind shear), topographic forcing, and radiative cooling [Lu et al., 2018]. The package provides essential functionalities for modeling and interpreting spatio-temporal TC rainfall data. pyTCR requires a limited number of model input parameters, making it a convenient and useful tool for analyzing rainfall mechanisms driven by TCs. To sample rare (most intense) rainfall events that are often of great societal interest, pyTCR adapts and leverages outputs from a statistical-dynamical TC downscaling model [Lin et al., 2023] capable of rapidly generating a large number of synthetic TCs given a certain climate. As a result, pyTCR significantly reduces computational effort and improves the efficiency in capturing extreme TC rainfall events at the tail of the distributions from limited datasets. Furthermore, the TC downscaling model is forced entirely by large-scale environmental conditions from reanalysis data or coupled General Circulation Models (GCMs), simplifying the projection of TC-induced rainfall and wind speed under future climate using pyTCR. Finally, pyTCR can be coupled with hydrological and wind models to assess risks associated with independent and compound events (e.g., storm surges and freshwater flooding).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Conditions Affecting Global Mesoscale Convective System Occurrence

Abstract The ERA5 environments of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), tracked from satellite observations, are assessed over a 20-yr period. The use of a large set of MCS tracks allows us to robustly test the sensitivity of the results to factors such as region, latitude, and diurnal cycle. We aim to provide novel information on environments of observed MCSs for assessments of global atmospheric models and to improve their ability to simulate MCSs. Statistical analysis of all tracked MCSs is performed in two complementary ways. First, we investigate the environments when an MCS has occurred at different spatial scales before and after MCS formation. Several environmental variables are found to show marked changes before MCS initiation, particularly over land. The vertically integrated moisture flux convergence shows a robust signal across different regions and when considering MCS initiation diurnal cycle. We also found spatial scale dependence of the environments between 200 and 500 km, providing new evidence of a natural length scale for use with MCS parameterization. In the second analysis, the likelihood of MCS occurrence for given environmental conditions is evaluated, by considering all environments and determining the probability of being in an MCS core or shield region. These are compared to analogous non-MCS environments, allowing discrimination between conditions suitable for MCS and non-MCS occurrence. Three environmental variables are found to be useful predictors of MCS occurrence: total column water vapor, midlevel relative humidity, and total column moisture flux convergence. Such relations could be used as trigger conditions for the parameterization of MCSs, thereby strengthening the dependence of the MCS scheme on the environment. Significance Statement Large storm systems called mesoscale convective systems form across Earth. These are collections of thunderstorms, with associated high-level clouds that produce substantial, lighter rainfall and modulate Earth’s energy balance. They produce hazardous weather conditions, such as floods and high winds, and are responsible for a high percentage of rainfall in many regions globally. We investigate the environmental conditions under which they form, so that we can understand the spatial extent of the environment which is important for their formation, and also where and when the effects of these storms might be felt. The novel information generated here should help improve the representation of these storms in weather and climate models, improving the prediction of rainfall, thunderclouds, and high-level clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of minority carrier diffusion lengths in InP/GaAs solar cells

Minority carrier diffusion length is one of the most important parameters affecting the solar cell performance. An attempt is made to estimate the minority carrier diffusion lengths is the emitter and base of InP/GaAs heteroepitaxial solar cells. The PC-1D computer model was used to simulate the experimental cell results measured at NASA Lewis under AMO (air mass zero) spectrum at 25 C. A 16 nm hole diffusion length in the emitter and a 0.42 micron electron diffusion length in the base gave very good agreement with the I-V curve. The effect of varying minority carrier diffusion lengths on cell short current, open circuit voltage, and efficiency was studied. It is also observed that the front surface recombination velocity has very little influence on the cell performance. The poor output of heteroepitaxial cells is caused primarily by the large number of dislocations generated at the interfaces that propagate through the bulk indium phosphide layers. Cell efficiency as a function of dislocation density was calculated and the effect of improved emitter bulk properties on cell efficiency is presented. It is found that cells with over 16 percent efficiencies should be possible, provided the dislocation density is below 10(exp 6)/sq cm.

Jain, R. K.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Mesoscale Convective Systems Over the US in Conventional and Multiscale Modeling Framework Configurations of E3SMv1

Organized mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) contribute a significant amount of precipitation in the Central and Eastern US during spring and summer, which impacts the availability of freshwater and flooding events. However, current global Earth system models cannot capture MCSs well and misrepresent the statistics of precipitation in the region. In this study, we investigate the representation of MCSs in three configurations of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv1) by tracking individual storms based on outgoing longwave radiation using a new application of TempestExtremes. Our results indicate that conventional parameterizations of convection, implemented in both low (LR; ~150 km) and high (HR; ~25 km) resolution configurations, fail to capture almost all MCS-like events, in-part because they underestimate high-level cloud ice associated with deep convection. On the other hand, the multiscale modeling framework (MMF; cloud-resolving models embedded in each grid-column of ~150 km resolution E3SMv1) configuration represents MCSs and their annual cycle better. Nevertheless, relative to observations, the E3SMv1-MMF spatial distribution of MCSs and associated precipitation is shifted eastward, and the diurnal timing is lagged. A comparison between the large-scale environment in E3SMv1-MMF and ERA5 reanalysis suggests that the biases during the summer in E3SMv1-MMF are associated with biases in low-level humidity and meridional moisture transport within the low-level jet. The fact that conventional parameterizations of convection, even with high-resolution, cannot capture MCSs over the US suggests that methods with explicit representation of kilometer-scale convective organization, such as the MMF, may be necessary for improving the simulation of these convective systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗