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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Solid Electrolyte Interphase Formation at the Ionic Liquid Electrolyte—Lithium-Metal Interface Using an Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Approach

An interfacial study is performed using ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations to elucidate the electrochemical interfacial stability of an ionic liquid (IL) as component of an electrolyte in contact with a Li-metal anode when an additive, vinylene carbonate (VC), is added to the electrolyte. The IL electrolyte is composed of 1-butyl-1-methylpyrrolidinium bis(fluoro-sulfonyl)-imide (PYR14 + FSI − ) with lithium bis(trifluoromethane-sulfonyl)imide salt (Li + TFSI − ) in a 8:2 concentration ratio. Reactions observed at the interface electrolyte/Li-metal during the AIMD simulations are verified by electronic structure calculations using density functional theory calculations considering a continuum solvent model. We found that the addition of VC to the IL prevents further reduction of the counter-ion TFSI − and retards reduction of FSI − in comparison to the case when the additive VC is absent. The PYR14 + reduction is never observed with or without the additive. The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd electron affinities of the PYR14 + are −0.08, −0.36 and −3.65 eV, indicating little to large repulsive behavior against electrons. The opposite is observed for the two negative ions, FSI − and TFSI − , which yield 1st electron affinities of 1.73 and 1.83 eV, respectively. Reactions obtained under open circuit conditions. Dissociation mechanisms are presented for all IL components reduced at the IL/Li-metal interface.

Electrochemistry↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fiber-Coupled Multipass NIR Sensor for In Situ, Real-Time Water Vapor Outgassing Monitoring

This work presents the recent development of a fiber-coupled multipass near-infrared (NIR) gas sensor used to monitor water vapor desorption of small material coupons. The gas sensor design employs a White cell topology to maximize the optical path length over a compact, hand-size footprint. Water vapor concentrations are quantified over a large dynamic range by simultaneously applying wavelength modulation and tunable diode laser absorption spectroscopy techniques. A custom headspace optimized for material desorption experiments is assembled using commercially available vacuum chamber components. We provide in situ measurements of water vapor desorption from two geometries of the industrially important silicone elastomer Sylgard-184 as a case study for sensor viability. To corroborate the results, the gas sensor data are compared to numerical simulations based on a triple-mode diffusion–sorption model, consisting of Henry, Langmuir, and Pooling modes.

gas sensor↗
DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Information Length Concept Applied to Plasma Turbulence

A methodology to study statistical properties of anomalous transport in fusion plasma is investigated. Three time traces generated by the full-f gyrokinetic code GKNET are analyzed for this purpose. The time traces consist of heat flux as a function of the radial position, which is studied in a novel manner using statistical methods. The simulation data exhibit transport processes with both medium and long correlation length along the radius. A typical example of a phenomenon with long correlation length is avalanches. In order to investigate the evolution of the turbulent state, two basic configurations are studied, one flux-driven and one gradient-driven with decaying turbulence. The information length concept in tandem with Boltzmann–Gibbs and Tsallis entropy is used in the investigation. It is found that the dynamical states in both flux-driven and gradient-driven cases are surprisingly similar, but the Tsallis entropy reveals differences between them. This indicates that the types of probability distribution function are nevertheless quite different since the higher moments are significantly different.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOSCATO Development and Integration in Fiscal Year 2025: Implementation of Multiphase, Multiphysics Modeling Capabilities for Molten Salt Systems

MOSCATO (Molten Salt Chemistry and Transport) is a multiphysics code that provides high-fidelity, coupled simulations of fluid flow, heat transfer, mass transfer, chemistry, electrochemical phenomena, and alloy corrosion for molten salt systems. In FY25, significant developments were made to the code package, enhancing its capabilities for modeling all relevant phenomena within operating moltens salt reactors (MSRs). The developments and activities in FY25 included: 1. Implementation of Level-Set methods to enable modeling of single-bubble behavior in molten salts. In FY25, the Level-Set two-phase flow modeling implementation was improved to simulate single bubble behavior with molten salt media. The large density and viscosity ratios between typical gases and molten salt liquids present challenges for these types of numerical solvers. With enhancements to the pressure projection method, MOSCATO’s Level-Set solver was able to be successfully validated to experiments related to helium bubble rise in stagnant molten salt. The simulated bubble rising velocity showed reasonable good agreement with experimental measurements. The bubble shape and dynamics were also visually compared with experimental snapshots, demonstrating a good qualitative match. 2. Generation of mass transfer correlations for multiphase flow systems. To enable calculations of the tritium transport across the interface between gas bubbles and salt, we modeled high- Schmidt-number mass transfer around a sphere across a broad range of Reynolds numbers. The mesh near the sphere surface was highly refined to resolve steep concentration gradients caused by the low diffusion coefficient. Literature-based mass transfer correlations were compared with the numerical results, and modifications were proposed to improve agreement, particularly at higher Schmidt numbers. These mass transfer correlations were subsequently provided to other national laboratories to help enable high quality mass transfer simulations using lower-order solvers under development within the NEAMS program. 3. Preliminary implementation of a bubbly flow solver. To model bubbly flow in molten salt, we implemented a bubbly flow solver for void fractions less than 5%. To do so, an algebraic relative velocity model that assumes small bubbles with rapid momentum equilibration was added to MOSCATO to compute bubble velocities. Preliminary comparisons with experimental data showed reasonable agreement, and further improvements are underway. 4. Generation of mass transfer correlations for MSRE subchannel The Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment (MSRE) was a landmark historical project that demonstrated the feasibility of molten-salt reactor technology. The MSRE campaign also generated a significant body of experimental data and reports that continue to support molten-salt–related research. In this report, the MSRE core subchannel was used as the reference geometry for a mass transfer study performed with MOSCATO. The geometry and computational mesh were adapted from a previous study, providing adequate resolution for the relatively low Reynolds number in this case. Additional mesh refinement was applied to reach higher Schmidt numbers, enabling the derivation of a reliable mass-transfer correlation for the present scenario. 5. Simulations of oxygen ingressions into molten salt. In the previous fiscal year, we initiated a study to simulate oxygen ingression in stagnant salt. As oxygen enters the salt through its surface, it reacts with Ce 3+ to form solid CeO 2 and other reaction products. To more fully capture the complex diffusion-convection-reaction mechanisms, capabilities for modeling natural convection in the salt vessel were added. These were needed as the flow of the ingressed gas induced flow in the salt caused by surface shear and non-isothermal effects. With these updated physics in place, we were able to successfully reproduce the experimental results for the rate of change of CeCl 3 concentrations versus time. 6. Flow corrosion model validation. In FY24, MOSCATO’s corrosion model was validated against static corrosion experiments. In FY25, this work was extended to a flow corrosion experiment, where FLiNaK salt was driven by natural convection, with initial salt impurities to initiate corrosion. Despite uncertainties in parameters such as elemental diffusion coefficients in the alloy and unknown H + concentrations, the simulations achieved good agreement with experimental results, especially in predicting sample mass losses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Fidelity CFD Simulation of Mixed Convection and Forced Convection in a Pebble Bed Test Reactor Core

The Hermes low-power [35-MW(thermal)] reactor will be built and operated by Kairos Power LLC (KP) to demonstrate its fluoride salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR) technology. In the KP FHR, the reactor core is composed of randomly packed pebbles with TRISO fuel particles inside with FLiBe flow upward through the core acting as a coolant. Previous numerical and experimental studies have been limited to either a small-size bed or to a lack of detailed measurements for heat transfer. Here, to address the lack of high-fidelity heat transfer data in a real-size FHR core, in this study, we simulated a pebble bed core with 34 374 pebbles randomly packed, similar to the Hermes reactor's size. The core radius was 14 times that of the pebble diameter, while the core height was 45 times. In this work, we were particularly interested in a mixed convection regime, where buoyancy is important. Therefore, we performed several large-eddy simulations at different Reynolds numbers (160 to 1000) with gravitational force included. The spectral element computational fluid dynamics code NekRS with graphics processing unit acceleration was used for this study. The low-Mach number approximation was applied to address property changes in the FLiBe and to account for buoyancy. A pure hexahedral mesh with 60 million elements was generated by the Voronoi cell method. At the polynomial order of 5, the total degrees of freedom was 7.5 billion. The developed case in this work is the first of its kind in terms of size and complexity. The local numerical data across the domain were obtained and compared with empirical correlations. After examining the data, we found the following conclusions. For pressure drop, the Reger correlation predicted less than a 5% error. On the other hand, for heat transfer, the Wakao correlation outperformed the others. Based on our findings, we recommend the use of the Wakao correlation for the Nusselt number calculation, and for pressure drop, the KTA (Kerntechnischer Ausschuss) correclation, among the available experimental correlations. In conclusion, the Reger direct numerical simulation-driven correlation for pressure drops should also be considered, given its best agreement with our calculations.

Mixed Convection↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling, Validation, and Control of the IEA‐15 MW Reference Wind Turbine and VolturnUS‐S Platform

This paper presents the acausal modeling, validation, and control of floating offshore wind turbines (FOWTs). The model simulates the IEA‐15 MW reference turbine and the semi‐submersible VolturnUS‐S platform utilizing a Control‐oriented, Reconfigurable, and Acausal Floating Turbine Simulator (CRAFTS), which integrates the key coupled aero‐hydro‐elasto‐servo dynamics and is being developed by authors at the University of Central Florida. Verification and validation are conducted using numerical data from the industry‐standard simulation platform OpenFAST and experimental data from the Floating Offshore‐wind and Controls Advanced Laboratory (FOCAL) project, in which the authors were involved. Numerical results demonstrate the model's ability to qualitatively capture loads and responses across various load cases, highlighting the impact of the control system under different wind and wave conditions and opening new opportunities for optimizing FOWT designs. This paper provides wind turbine researchers with valuable insights into system characteristics, system frequencies, damping effects, and internal reaction forces, serving as a reference for future studies in FOWT modeling and control.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Active Divertor Heat Flux Control using Impurity Powder Dropper

Divertor plasma-facing components (PFCs) in a tokamak are typically designed to withstand average steady-state heat loads of about 5–10 MW/m 2 , a limit that applies to both solid and liquid lithium (LL) PFCs. Exceeding these design values can result in surface damage to tungsten PFCs or excessive lithium (Li) evaporation in liquid lithium divertor (LLD) PFCs. Since exceeding the divertor heat load limits has serious consequences, it is therefore prudent to develop a tool to reduce the divertor heat load and bring the heat load to within the design limit without affecting the plasma performance. Active low Z impurity injection such as Li has been suggested as a potential solution to mitigate excess heat flux as suggested previously, given that non-coronal radiation can be quite large ~ 20–30 MJ per mole of injected Li. Li is considered desirable for reducing the edge neutral recycling helping to improve plasma energy confinement. In this paper, we model the Impurity Power Dropper (IPD) to investigate its potential of divertor heat flux control. The IPD is typically located at the top of the tokamak device and uses a vertical drift tube of a few meters. In the 2 m drift tube case, the IPD powder is accelerated to ~ 6 m/sec before reaching the plasma with the upper divertor configuration, matching the condition for the in-board side pellet injection case. By modeling the IPD geometry we determined the IPD powder deposition profile, and thus the non-coronal radiation and ionization profiles in time as well. From the enhanced radiation power loss, it is therefore possible to reduce the divertor heat load using the divertor simulation code. In conclusion, the IPD divertor heat flux control can be tested in the facilities with IPD including ST-40, DIII-D, EAST, WEST and NSTX-U.

Active lithium injection↗
DOE OSTI2025

Generalized fiducial inference on differentiable manifolds

We introduce a novel approach to inference on parameters that take values in a Riemannian manifold embedded in a Euclidean space. Parameter spaces of this form are ubiquitous across many fields, including chemistry, physics, computer graphics, and geology. Here, this new approach uses generalized fiducial inference (GFI) to obtain a posterior-like distribution on the manifold, without needing to know local parameterizations that map to the constrained space from an unconstrained Euclidean space. Using mathematical tools from Riemannian geometry, we construct a constrained generalized fiducial distribution (CGFD). A Bernstein-von Mises-type result for the CGFD, which provides intuition for how the desirable asymptotic qualities of the unconstrained generalized fiducial distribution are inherited by the CGFD, is provided. To illustrate the practical use of the CGFD, we provide a proof-of-concept example in the context of a linear logspline density estimation problem, and demonstrate that CGFD-based confidence sets exhibit desirable coverage properties via simulation. As an application, we fit a CGFD to COVID-19 case count data from North Carolina, USA.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accurate Monitoring of an Electrically Energized Casing Source using Fiber Optic Sensing

This report summarizes an investigation of utilizing a Piezoelectric coating on fiber optics to monitor electric fields. The application of interest was monitoring the electric field emitted from a borehole casing being used an an Electromagnetic source in geophysical monitoring. Testing consists of using a water filled vessel with plate electrodes on opposing sides to generate electric fields while lowering a custom designed sensor into the water. The results are compared to what is conventionally available via simulations.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Classic and Quantum Task-Based Intelligent Runtime for QIRs Running on Multiple QPUs

High-performance computing systems are rapidly evolving into heterogeneous platforms that fuse quantum accelerators with traditional classical processing units (CPUs) and graphical processing units (GPUs). This convergence calls for runtimes capable of managing both classical and quantum workloads in a unified manner. We introduce an intelligent, task-based runtime that marries the Intelligent RuntIme System (IRIS) asynchronous scheduler with a quantum programming stack through the Quantum Intermediate Representation Execution Engine (QIR-EE). Our design allows programs written in the quantum intermediate representation (QIR) to be dispatched concurrently to a variety of back-ends, including multiple quantum simulators and nascent quantum processors, enabling genuine hybrid execution on a single node. To illustrate its practicality, we partition a 4-qubit and 20-qubit circuit into three sub-circuits using quantum circuit cutting via the QCut library. Each sub-circuit is simulated independently by the QIR-EE driver within IRIS, after which a classical post-processing step merges the simulation results to recover the outcome of the original full-circuit computation. This case study demonstrates how finer task granularity can enable the parallel execution and lower the simulation burden per quantum task while preserving overall accuracy, highlighting the feasibility of our hybrid approach.

Miniskar, Narasinga Rao [ORNL] (ORCID:000000018259↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting the evolution of biomass bulk density through feedstock preprocessing: Discrete element modeling, regression analysis, and pilot-scale validation

Bulk density is an important material property of biomass feedstocks, influencing handling, storage, transport costs, and conversion efficiency. In this study, predictive regression models for loose and tapped bulk densities of Alamo and Cave-in-Rock switchgrass are developed using a comprehensive dataset generated via calibrated bonded-sphere discrete element method (DEM) simulations. Here, a key contribution of this study is the use of a DEM-based approach, which correlates density with moisture content and particle size distribution parameters and enables analysis across a continuous particle size range, overcoming limitations of purely experimental data. For comparison, regression models are also developed using only experimental data from pilot-scale runs at the Biomass Feedstock National User Facility at Idaho National Laboratory. Validation against pilot-scale data showed reasonable prediction accuracy for both model types, particularly for smaller particle sizes (post-secondary grinding). While the experimental model showed slightly better performance matching the validation data in some cases, the DEM-based model benefits from a much larger dataset, reduced predictor multicollinearity, and continuous parameter coverage, highlighting the utility of validated simulation models for developing robust predictive tools for biomass preprocessing applications.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

High- and Mid-Fidelity Modeling Comparison for a Floating Marine Turbine System: Preprint

There is a lack of suitable numerical tools, particularly open-source tools, that can be used for designing and optimizing marine turbine systems. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) has added features to their widely used mid-fidelity wind turbine modeling code, OpenFAST, to enable modeling of axial flow marine turbines. This necessitated the addition of several physical effects relevant to marine turbines that can be neglected for wind turbines. These include buoyant loads, added mass and inertia loads, wave-current superposition, and changes to the coordinate systems. This updated version of OpenFAST allows for the modeling of both fixed and floating marine turbine systems at a speed comparable to real time. While efficient for long simulations, large sets of load cases, and design studies, mid-fidelity codes cannot capture all of the potentially important physical phenomenon impacting marine turbine systems. High-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations can capture more flow effects with fewer assumptions and provide detailed body pressure mapping and flow-field information. It is important to compare predictions between mid-fidelity and high-fidelity codes, both to verify the models and to understand the limitations. A floating marine turbine system designed by NREL was modeled both with OpenFAST and with the commercial CFD code, STARCCM+. The CFD model used a 3-D unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver for a volume-of-fluid numerical wave and current tank. The blade-resolved simulations used the sliding-interface technique for the spinning rotor and an overset grid to accommodate the rigid-body motion of the floating system. The mooring system was modelled with a custom coupling of the CFD solver with the open-source code, MoorDyn. This improves upon the existing quasi-static catenary solver in STARCCM+, which lacks seabed contact or line-to-line connections. Spatial and temporal convergence studies were conducted. The simulation results for a combined current and wave condition are compared between OpenFAST and CFD, highlighting the capabilities of the mid-fidelity code and identifying the areas where a high-fidelity approach is needed.

CFD↗
DOE OSTI2025

General relativistic hydrodynamic simulations of binary strange star mergers

We perform fully general-relativistic simulations of binary strange star mergers considering two different approaches for thermal effects. The first uses a cold equation of state (EOS) derived from a modified version of the MIT bag model which is then supplemented by a Γ-law correction. The second approach employs a microphysical description of the finite-temperature effects. We describe results obtained with the two treatments, highlighting the influence of thermal effects. We find that the postmerger dynamics differs significantly in the two cases, leading to quantitative differences in the postmerger gravitational-wave spectrum and ejecta mass. The peak frequency of the postmerger gravitational-wave emission is consistent with the established quasi-universal relations for binary neutron star mergers and as a result, our simulations cannot distinguish between mergers of neutron stars and those of strange stars. Our models with realistic treatment of finite-temperature effects produce a significant amount of ejecta ≳0.02 M ⊙ ​. Here, the resulting flux of strangelets near the Earth, computed assuming that all neutron star mergers are in fact strange-stars mergers and that the binary considered here is representative, is in tension with experimental upper limits. As such, our results tentatively disfavor a scenario in which strange-quark matter is the lowest energy state of matter.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Enhancing occupant behavior representation for interoperability between building information modeling and building energy modeling

Building Performance Simulation (BPS) has been adopted as an essential tool for designing, operating, and retrofitting buildings to optimize energy efficiency throughout the building life cycle. The Green Building XML (gbXML) schema facilitates seamless data exchange between Building Information Modeling (BIM) and Building Energy Modeling (BEM) software tools. However, limited occupant behavior (OB) representation in BIM often leads to inconsistent and inaccurate energy simulation in BEM software. This paper presents 154 systematic enhancements to the existing occupant behavior XML (obXML) schema v1.3.4, initially developed for standardizing OB representation for BEM, to address existing limitations and improve interoperability with BIM models. The enhancements encompass improved integration with BIM models through extended building representations and system operations, expanded support for advanced OB models with additional environmental parameters and mathematical capabilities, and implementation of a standardized model documentation framework. To facilitate seamless data transformation between gbXML and obXML schemas, we developed a publicly available gb-obXML Schema Converter. Three case studies demonstrate the enhanced schema’s capabilities: representation of building information using a two-story office building model, documentation of a window operation behavior model, and validation of the schema converter’s functionality. The enhanced obXML schema v1.4 enables sophisticated modeling of occupant-building interactions while maintaining consistency with industry-standard BIM schemas. The standardized documentation framework facilitates reproducibility and knowledge sharing in the OB research community, while the schema converter automates the integration of building information into OB simulation workflows. These enhancements establish a foundation for more accurate building performance simulation by supporting sophisticated representation of occupant behavior within the BIM-to-BEM simulation workflows.

Chung, Jihoon↗
DOE OSTI2026

CMIP7 data request: Earth system priorities and opportunities

This paper presents a comprehensive overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) request for data pertaining to Earth systems science, and provides justification for the resources needed to produce this data. Topics within the CMIP7 Earth System (CMIP7-ES) theme centre around tracking of flows of energy, carbon, water and other fluxes across domains, and constraining feedbacks between these cycles and the climate system. These topics are summarized in this paper as scientific “opportunities” describing specific model intercomparison experiments and use cases for next-generation Earth System Model (ESM) output. These opportunities were submitted by modelling groups and scientific consortia following an extended public consultation process. Contained within each opportunity are requests for groups of Climate & Forecasting (CF) variables, which are bundled into variable groups representing all data required to address the opportunities' needs. Novel opportunities in CMIP7 compared with previous phases will include running `emissions-driven' simulations that integrate carbon emissions and removal scenarios with updated representations of the global carbon cycle, expanded variable groups needed to model marine trophic interactions and biogeochemistry, and data needed to understand the risk of global tipping points, among others. The production of these variables will close key gaps and uncertainties identified during previous rounds of CMIP, and support the 7th Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report (AR7). We argue that CMIP7-ES data will be broadly used by scientific, policy, governmental, industry, and other communities that rely on climate model projections for research and decision making. As an author group we also reflect on the evolution of the CMIP7-ES data request as a part of a deliberative process in support of the global CMIP program.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Surrogate models for development of unconventional shale reservoirs by an integrated numerical approach of hydraulic fracturing, flow and geomechanics, and machine learning

We develop well-completion surrogate models by taking an integrated workflow of hydraulic fracturing, flow, geomechanics, and machine learning simulation. There are three steps in the proposed workflow. First, history-matching processes are conducted with the field data including pumping and production data for characterization. Second, full-physics simulation is performed with various parameters of the field development (e.g., cluster spacing, clusters per stage, pumping rates and times, amount of proppant, and well spacing) to generate multiple simulation results by changing the parameters of the completion design with well-known hydraulic fracturing, reservoir, geomechanics simulators to calculate fracture geometry, reservoir depressurization, induced stress changes. The workflow is demonstrated over a field in the Southern Midland Basin. Here, we take two completion scenarios: a single well case followed by a multi-well case. Finally, a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) machine learning algorithm is employed to create surrogate models that can replicate the full-physics simulation results. Furthermore, results show that the trained models applied in the single well and multi-well cases for a particular geological system can provide good accuracy close to those provided by full-physics simulations. Specifically, the site-specific surrogate models can predict fracture parameters (length, height, and surface area) and cumulative production accurately with computational efficiency, suggesting our proposed workflow can be used as a pragmatic tool for expediting the well completion optimization process.

Geomechanics↗