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At least 433 records · Page 24

Volcanic eruptions and solar activity

The historical record of large volcanic eruptions from 1500 to 1980 is subjected to detailed time series analysis. In two weak but probably statistically significant periodicities of about 11 and 80 yr, the frequency of volcanic eruptions increases (decreases) slightly around the times of solar minimum (maximum). Time series analysis of the volcanogenic acidities in a deep ice core from Greenland reveals several very long periods ranging from about 80 to about 350 yr which are similar to the very slow solar cycles previously detected in auroral and C-14 records. Solar flares may cause changes in atmospheric circulation patterns that abruptly alter the earth's spin. The resulting jolt probably triggers small earthquakes which affect volcanism.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

A study of periodicities and recurrences in solar activity and cosmic ray modulation

The 154d periodicity was found in the cosmic ray intensity (RE) vs Flares, and some other peaks of coherency in the RC vs aa sub I, that when interpreted as aliased values, might correspond to recurring interplanetary magnetic field structures and solar wind streams. It cannot be excluded, however, that some of the correspondence with aa are of terrestrial origin. This study cannot be considered exhaustive due to the fact that other solar variables, such as polar hole size, are possibly correlated to cosmic ray intensities. However, the number of observations is small so that the interpretation of the results is very difficult.

Attolini, M. R.↗

Middle Atmosphere Program. Handbook for MAP, volume 29. Part 1: Extended Abstracts, International Symposium on Solar Activity Forcing of the Middle Atmosphere. Part 2: MASH Workshop

The proceedings of the symposium is presented. Eight different sessions were presented: (1) Papers generally related to the subject; (2) Papers on the influence of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation; (3) Papers on the influence of the solar electromagnetic radiation variability; (4) Papers on the solar wind and high energy particle influence; (5) Papers on atmospheric circulation; (6) Papers on atmospheric electricity; (7) Papers on lower ionospheric variability; and (8) Solar posters, which are not included in this compilation.

Lastovicka, Jan↗

Dynamical Evolution of the Inner Heliosphere Approaching Solar Activity Maximum: Interpreting Ulysses Observations Using a Global MHD Model

In this study we describe a series of MHD simulations covering the time period from 12 January 1999 to 19 September 2001 (Carrington Rotation 1945 to 1980). This interval coincided with: (1) the Sun s approach toward solar maximum; and (2) Ulysses second descent to the southern polar regions, rapid latitude scan, and arrival into the northern polar regions. We focus on the evolution of several key parameters during this time, including the photospheric magnetic field, the computed coronal hole boundaries, the computed velocity profile near the Sun, and the plasma and magnetic field parameters at the location of Ulysses. The model results provide a global context for interpreting the often complex in situ measurements. We also present a heuristic explanation of stream dynamics to describe the morphology of interaction regions at solar maximum and contrast it with the picture that resulted from Ulysses first orbit, which occurred during more quiescent solar conditions. The simulation results described here are available at: http://sun.saic.com.

Riley, Pete↗

GPM Orbital Maintenance Planning and Operations in Low Solar Activity Environment

The orbital maintenance operations of the GPM Core Observatory was predicted to have routine drag makeup maneuvers to maintain the mission orbit. The maneuver frequency and estimated fuel usage calculated prelaunch were very comparable to the actual values observed after launch for the first two years. However, when the solar minimum was being entered, instead of seeing the need for less frequent station keeping maneuvers the operations team had to adjust the maneuver plan operations in order to maintain orbit requirements during the low atmospheric drag period predicted to last as long as 2021. This paper will provide the original plan, requirements and restriction, and the plan changes that were made to adjust to this condition. The document will also discuss lessons learned.

flight dynamics↗

GPM Orbital Maintenance Planning and Operations in Low Solar Activity Environment

The orbital maintenance operations of the GPM Core Observatory was predicted to have routine drag makeup maneuvers to maintain the mission orbit. The maneuver frequency and estimated fuel usage calculated prelaunch were very comparable to the actual values observed after launch for the first two years. However, when the solar minimum was being entered, instead of seeing the need for less frequent station keeping maneuvers the operations team had to adjust the maneuver plan operations in order to maintain orbit requirements during the low atmospheric drag period predicted to last as long as 2021.

flight dynamics↗

Plasma sheet ion composition at various levels of geomagnetic and solar activity

The data obtained in the earth's plasma sheet by the Plasma Composition Experiment on the ISEE-1 spacecraft are briefly reexamined. The data are shown in the form of statistically averaged bulk parameters for the four major ions H(+), He(2+), He(+), and O(+) to illustrate the apparent mixture of solar and terrestrial ions, a mixture that varies with geomagnetic and other conditions. Some major differences in the statistical properties of different ions, which may have a bearing on the physics of the solar wind-magnetosphere interaction, are highlighted.

Lennartsson, W.↗

Solar activity influences on atmospheric electricity and on some structures in the middle atmosphere

Only processes in the troposphere and the lower stratosphere are reviewed. General aspects of global atmospheric electricity are summarized in Chapter 3 of NCR (1986); Volland (1984) has outlined the overall problems of atmospheric electrodynamics; and Roble and Hays (1982) published a summary of solar effects on the global circuit. The solar variability and its atmospheric effects (overview by Donelly et al, 1987) and the solar-planetary relationships (survey by James et al. 1983) are so extremely complex that only particular results and selected papers of direct relevance or historical importance are compiled herein.

Reiter, Reinhold↗

Geomagnetic responses to the solar wind and the solar activity

Following some historical notes, the formation of the magnetosphere and the magnetospheric tail is discussed. The importance of electric fields is stressed and the magnetospheric convection of plasma and magnetic field lines under the influence of large-scale magnetospheric electric fields is outlined. Ionospheric electric fields and currents are intimately related to electric fields and currents in the magnetosphere and the strong coupling between the two regions is discussed. The energy input of the solar wind to the magnetosphere and upper atmosphere is discussed in terms of the reconnection model where interplanetary magnetic field lines merge or connect with the terrestrial field on the sunward side of the magnetosphere. The merged field lines are then stretched behind earth to form the magnetotail so that kinetic energy from the solar wind is converted into magnetic energy in the field lines in the tail. Localized collapses of the crosstail current, which is driven by the large-scale dawn/dusk electric field in the magnetosphere, divert part of this current along geomagnetic field lines to the ionosphere, causing substorms with auroral activity and magnetic disturbances. The collapses also inject plasma into the radiation belts and build up a ring current. Frequent collapses in rapid succession constitute the geomagnetic storm.

Svalgaard, L.↗

High correlations between variations in monthly averages of solar activity and total atmospheric ozone

Estimates of the ozone total columnar content, derived from Nimbus IV IRIS data, have been analyzed to estimate monthly averages of the total global atmospheric ozone. Over a 9-month interval, the variation in this monthly average is approximately an order of magnitude greater than its associated uncertainty, and has characteristics in common with variations in the 10.7 cm solar flux, the Zurich sunspot number, and the total solar Lyman alpha flux. The highest correlation, 0.94, exists between the variation in the total Lyman alpha flux and the variation in the estimated total atmospheric ozone.

Blackshear, W. T.↗

Solar Activity FARside Investigation (SAFARI) Science

This presentation describes what kind of heliospheric problems can be solved with simultaneous observations of spatially separated sound signals on the Sun. It is based on previously published work.

solar physics↗

An influence of solar activity on latitudinal distribution of atmospheric ozone and temperature in 2-D radiative-photochemical model

On the basis of the 2-D radiative-photochemical model of the ozone layer at heights 0 to 60 km in the Northern Hemisphere there are revealed and analyzed in detail the characteristic features of the season-altitude-latitude variations of ozone and temperature due to changes of the solar flux during the 11 year cycle, electron and proton precipitations.

Dyominov, I. G.↗

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗

The gross energy balance of solar active regions

Parker's (1974) model in which sunspots denote regions of increased heat transport from the convection zone is briefly described. The amount of excess mechanically transported power supposed to be delivered to the atmosphere is estimated for a typical active region, and the total radiative power output of the active-region atmosphere is computed. It is found that only a very small fraction (about 0.001) of the sunspot 'missing flux' can be accounted for by radiative emission from the atmosphere above a spot group in the manner suggested by Parker. The power-loss mechanism associated with mass loss to the solar wind is briefly considered and shown not to be sufficient to account for the sunspot missing flux.

Evans, K. D.↗

Plasma Beta Above a Solar Active Region: Rethinking the Paradigm

In this paper, we present a model of the plasma beta above an active region and discuss its consequences in terms of coronal magnetic field modeling. The beta-plasma model is representative and derived from a collection of sources. The resulting beta variation with height is used to emphasize the assumption that the magnetic pressure dominates over the plasma pressure must be carefully considered depending on what part of the solar atmosphere is being considered. This paper points out (1) that the paradigm that the coronal magnetic field can be constructed from a force-free magnetic field must be used in the correct context, since the forcefree region is sandwiched between two regions which have beta greater than 1, (2) that the chromospheric MgIICIV magnetic measurements occur near the beta-minimum, and (3) that, moving from the photosphere upwards, beta can return to 1 at relatively low coronal heights, e.g. R approximately 1.2R(sub)s.

Gary, G. Allen↗

On the relationship between early solar activity and the evolution of terrestrial planet atmospheres

Mass fractionation during hydrodynamic escape of hydrogen-rich primordial atmospheres form Venus, earth, and Mars can account for most of the salient features of mass distributions in their present-day atmospheres. The principal assumptions and results of an escape-fractionation model for the evolution of terrestrial planet atmospheres from primary to final states are qualitatively described, with emphasis on the astrophysical conditions needed to enable the loss process. A substantial and rapidly declining flux of energetic solar radiation into atmospheric exospheres is required, initially (at solar ages of about 1-10 million years) two to three orders of magnitude more intense than that supplied by extreme-ultraviolet emission from the contemporary sun. The solar accretion disk must have dissipated if such radiation is to penetrate the system midplane to planetray distances. On both criteria, hydrodynamic escape from planets appears plausible in the astrophysical environment of the naked T-Tauri stars.

Repin, Robert O.↗