Radial distribution functions for the gaussian model.
Comparison of monte carlo, percus-yevick integral equations and convolution-hypernetted-chain methods for computing radial distribution functions of gaussian model
RADIAL DISTRIBUTION↗
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The reality of comet groups and pairs
Although the common genetic origin of the Kreutz family of sun-grazing comets has generally been accepted, there remains uncertainty with regard to genetic identity among other groups of comets whose orbital elements are nearly alike. Porter (1952) has listed a number of such groups, and Opik (1971) has made a statistical study of the orbits of 472 comets with aphelion distances beyond Saturn. Opik lists 97 groups that show similarities among their three angular elements, calculates an overall probability of some 10 to the -39th power that these similarities could have occurred by chance, and thus concludes that 60% or more of such comets fall into genetic groups containing from two to seven members. This paper explores the statistical reality of Opik's groups utilizing the Monte Carlo method of statistics as well as ordinary probability theory. The conclusion is reached that except for a few pairs, the similarity among orbital elements within the groups is no greater than random expectation.
Whipple, F. L.↗
Comparison of Histograms for Use in Cloud Observation and Modeling
Cloud observation and cloud modeling data can be presented in histograms for each characteristic to be measured. Combining information from single-cloud histograms yields a summary histogram. Summary histograms can be compared to each other to reach conclusions about the behavior of an ensemble of clouds in different places at different times or about the accuracy of a particular cloud model. As in any scientific comparison, it is necessary to decide whether any apparent differences are statistically significant. The usual methods of deciding statistical significance when comparing histograms do not apply in this case because they assume independent data. Thus, a new method is necessary. The proposed method uses the Euclidean distance metric and bootstrapping to calculate the significance level.
Green, Lisa↗
Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data
Feature extraction and classification algorithms for high dimensional data are investigated. Developments with regard to sensors for Earth observation are moving in the direction of providing much higher dimensional multispectral imagery than is now possible. In analyzing such high dimensional data, processing time becomes an important factor. With large increases in dimensionality and the number of classes, processing time will increase significantly. To address this problem, a multistage classification scheme is proposed which reduces the processing time substantially by eliminating unlikely classes from further consideration at each stage. Several truncation criteria are developed and the relationship between thresholds and the error caused by the truncation is investigated. Next an approach to feature extraction for classification is proposed based directly on the decision boundaries. It is shown that all the features needed for classification can be extracted from decision boundaries. A characteristic of the proposed method arises by noting that only a portion of the decision boundary is effective in discriminating between classes, and the concept of the effective decision boundary is introduced. The proposed feature extraction algorithm has several desirable properties: it predicts the minimum number of features necessary to achieve the same classification accuracy as in the original space for a given pattern recognition problem; and it finds the necessary feature vectors. The proposed algorithm does not deteriorate under the circumstances of equal means or equal covariances as some previous algorithms do. In addition, the decision boundary feature extraction algorithm can be used both for parametric and non-parametric classifiers. Finally, some problems encountered in analyzing high dimensional data are studied and possible solutions are proposed. First, the increased importance of the second order statistics in analyzing high dimensional data is recognized. By investigating the characteristics of high dimensional data, the reason why the second order statistics must be taken into account in high dimensional data is suggested. Recognizing the importance of the second order statistics, there is a need to represent the second order statistics. A method to visualize statistics using a color code is proposed. By representing statistics using color coding, one can easily extract and compare the first and the second statistics.
Lee, Chulhee↗
Statistical Evaluation and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads
Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield/ultimate strength and high- cycle fatigue capability. This Technical Publication examines the cumulative distribution percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematica to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile is then presented along with a curve tit to this value. Another Excel macro that calculates the combination using Monte Carlo simulation is shown. Unlike the traditional techniques. these methods quantify the calculated load value with a consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Additionally, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can substantially lower the design loading without losing any of the identified structural reliability.
Brown, A. M.↗
Statistical Comparison and Improvement of Methods for Combining Random and Harmonic Loads
Structures in many environments experience both random and harmonic excitation. A variety of closed-form techniques has been used in the aerospace industry to combine the loads resulting from the two sources. The resulting combined loads are then used to design for both yield ultimate strength and high cycle fatigue capability. This paper examines the cumulative distribution function (CDF) percentiles obtained using each method by integrating the joint probability density function of the sine and random components. A new Microsoft Excel spreadsheet macro that links with the software program Mathematics is then used to calculate the combined value corresponding to any desired percentile along with a curve fit to this value. Another Excel macro is used to calculate the combination using a Monte Carlo simulation. Unlike the traditional techniques, these methods quantify the calculated load value with a Consistent percentile. Using either of the presented methods can be extremely valuable in probabilistic design, which requires a statistical characterization of the loading. Also, since the CDF at high probability levels is very flat, the design value is extremely sensitive to the predetermined percentile; therefore, applying the new techniques can lower the design loading substantially without losing any of the identified structural reliability.
Brown, Andrew M.↗
Statistical properties of nonlinear systems subject to random excitation.
Nonlinear system under random excitation, discussing analytic solution method and statistical properties
Hu, P. Y.↗
Statistical study of evolution of gamma-ray bursts detected by Apex/Phobos and BATSE/COMPTON instruments
The new method of statistical studying of cosmic gamma-ray bursts is presented based on the averaging of time profiles. The comparison is done between bright and dim events: while no differences were found between average flux curves, the hardness ratios pointed out the effect of hardness/brightness correlation.
Mitrofanov, I. G.↗
Statistical design for microwave systems
This paper presents an introduction to statistical system design. Basic ideas needed to understand statistical design and a method for implementing statistical design are presented. The nonlinear characteristics of the system amplifiers and mixers are accounted for in the given examples. The specification of group delay, signal-to-noise ratio and output power are considered in these statistical designs.
Cooke, Roland↗
Statistical retrieval techniques for sounding the meteorological structure of the atmosphere
Statistical retrieval methods for remote sounding are reviewed. Methods are given for constraining an essentially incomplete problem by means of the known statistical behavior of the solution. Information content of the observations and the meteorological structure are discussed. Linear versions of maximum probability and minimum variance methods are given in some detail, and extensions to the nonlinear case are described.
Rodgers, C. D.↗
Review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials
A review and statistical analysis of the ultrasonic velocity method for estimating the porosity fraction in polycrystalline materials is presented. Initially, a semi-empirical model is developed showing the origin of the linear relationship between ultrasonic velocity and porosity fraction. Then, from a compilation of data produced by many researchers, scatter plots of velocity versus percent porosity data are shown for Al2O3, MgO, porcelain-based ceramics, PZT, SiC, Si3N4, steel, tungsten, UO2,(U0.30Pu0.70)C, and YBa2Cu3O(7-x). Linear regression analysis produced predicted slope, intercept, correlation coefficient, level of significance, and confidence interval statistics for the data. Velocity values predicted from regression analysis for fully-dense materials are in good agreement with those calculated from elastic properties.
Roth, D. J.↗
SeaWiFS Technical Report Series. Volume 7: Cloud screening for polar orbiting visible and infrared (IR) satellite sensors
Methods for detecting and screening cloud contamination from satellite derived visible and infrared data are reviewed in this document. The methods are applicable to past, present, and future polar orbiting satellite radiometers. Such instruments include the Coastal Zone Color Scanner (CZCS), operational from 1978 through 1986; the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR); the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), scheduled for launch in August 1993; and the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (IMODIS). Constant threshold methods are the least demanding computationally, and often provide adequate results. An improvement to these methods are the least demanding computationally, and often provide adequate results. An improvement to these methods is to determine the thresholds dynamically by adjusting them according to the areal and temporal distributions of the surrounding pixels. Spatial coherence methods set thresholds based on the expected spatial variability of the data. Other statistically derived methods and various combinations of basic methods are also reviewed. The complexity of the methods is ultimately limited by the computing resources. Finally, some criteria for evaluating cloud screening methods are discussed.
Darzi, Michael↗
Quantum theory of an optical maser. III - Theory of photoelectron counting statistics.
Quantum mechanics method for obtaining photocount distribution from optical maser photoelectron counting statistics
Lamb, W. E., Jr.↗
Statistical dependency in visual scanning
A method to identify statistical dependencies in the positions of eye fixations is developed and applied to eye movement data from subjects who viewed dynamic displays of air traffic and judged future relative position of aircraft. Analysis of approximately 23,000 fixations on points of interest on the display identified statistical dependencies in scanning that were independent of the physical placement of the points of interest. Identification of these dependencies is inconsistent with random-sampling-based theories used to model visual search and information seeking.
Ellis, Stephen R.↗
Advanced Gear Alloys for Ultra High Strength Applications
Single tooth bending fatigue (STBF) test data of UHS Ferrium C61 and C64 alloys are presented in comparison with historical test data of conventional gear steels (9310 and Pyrowear 53) with comparable statistical analysis methods. Pitting and scoring tests of C61 and C64 are works in progress. Boeing statistical analysis of STBF test data for the four gear steels (C61, C64, 9310 and Pyrowear 53) indicates that the UHS grades exhibit increases in fatigue strength in the low cycle fatigue (LCF) regime. In the high cycle fatigue (HCF) regime, the UHS steels exhibit better mean fatigue strength endurance limit behavior (particularly as compared to Pyrowear 53). However, due to considerable scatter in the UHS test data, the anticipated overall benefits of the UHS grades in bending fatigue have not been fully demonstrated. Based on all the test data and on Boeing s analysis, C61 has been selected by Boeing as the gear steel for the final ERDS demonstrator test gearboxes. In terms of potential follow-up work, detailed physics-based, micromechanical analysis and modeling of the fatigue data would allow for a better understanding of the causes of the experimental scatter, and of the transition from high-stress LCF (surface-dominated) to low-stress HCF (subsurface-dominated) fatigue failure. Additional STBF test data and failure analysis work, particularly in the HCF regime and around the endurance limit stress, could allow for better statistical confidence and could reduce the observed effects of experimental test scatter. Finally, the need for further optimization of the residual compressive stress profiles of the UHS steels (resulting from carburization and peening) is noted, particularly for the case of the higher hardness C64 material.
Shen, Tony↗
Planning Bias: Planning as a Source of Sampling Bias
Many data-driven planning methods are trained on data generated by planners. It is well known that many statistical learning methods are sensitive to sampling bias, and yet there has been little or no attention to planning as a sampling method and its role in introducing sampling bias into planner-generated training data. Recently, it has been demonstrated that A**,* in the presence of problems with variable heuristic error, prefers some solutions over other equally cost-optimal solutions. But, as we discuss in this paper, mitigation may not be as simple as resolving arbitrary tie-breaking by sampling from ties uniformly at random. In this paper, we formalize an intuition of planning bias. We focus on problems which output a single solution. Diverse planning only complicates the problem by generalizing it to bias in the set of sets; we show how it is subject to bias in the single solution. We make some useful observations about deterministic algorithms in contrast to non-deterministic algorithms. We explain how information entropy may be a good way to measure planning bias, and discuss some issues in evaluating practical approaches to measurement. We address the intuition that uniform random tiebreaking should mitigate bias; and sketch a novel approach to constructing an appropriate random distribution for duplicate detection during forward search for unbiased A*. Finally, we suggest directions for future work.
Planning Scheduling Algorithms↗
Analysis of wind perturbation activity for the NSTS launches
A method for statistical analysis of wind perturbation activity is proposed for application in NSTS prelaunch assessment of the wind environment. Methods for comparing day-of-launch wind perturbation standard deviations with historical data at the launch site are described. A statistical model based on the Gumbel extreme value distribution is developed for the largest vector and component perturbations in a wind profile as a function of high-pass filter cutoff wavelength. Application of the model is proposed for assessing extreme perturbations within prelaunch sequential Jimsphere wind profiles.
Adelfang, Stanley I.↗
Applying Monte Carlo Simulation to Launch Vehicle Design and Requirements Verification
This paper is focused on applying Monte Carlo simulation to probabilistic launch vehicle design and requirements verification. The approaches developed in this paper can be applied to other complex design efforts as well. Typically the verification must show that requirement "x" is met for at least "y" % of cases, with, say, 10% consumer risk or 90% confidence. Two particular aspects of making these runs for requirements verification will be explored in this paper. First, there are several types of uncertainties that should be handled in different ways, depending on when they become known (or not). The paper describes how to handle different types of uncertainties and how to develop vehicle models that can be used to examine their characteristics. This includes items that are not known exactly during the design phase but that will be known for each assembled vehicle (can be used to determine the payload capability and overall behavior of that vehicle), other items that become known before or on flight day (can be used for flight day trajectory design and go/no go decision), and items that remain unknown on flight day. Second, this paper explains a method (order statistics) for determining whether certain probabilistic requirements are met or not and enables the user to determine how many Monte Carlo samples are required. Order statistics is not new, but may not be known in general to the GN&C community. The methods also apply to determining the design values of parameters of interest in driving the vehicle design. The paper briefly discusses when it is desirable to fit a distribution to the experimental Monte Carlo results rather than using order statistics.
Hanson, John M.↗