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At least 433 records · Page 24

Adaptive experimental design for multi-fidelity surrogate modeling of multi-disciplinary systems

We present an adaptive algorithm for constructing surrogate models of multi-disciplinary systems composed of a set of coupled components. With this goal we introduce “coupling” variables with a priori unknown distributions that allow surrogates of each component to be built independently. Once built, the surrogates of the components are combined to form an integrated-surrogate that can be used to predict system-level quantities of interest at a fraction of the cost of the original model. The error in the integrated-surrogate is greedily minimized using an experimental design procedure that allocates the amount of training data, used to construct each component-surrogate, based on the contribution of those surrogates to the error of the integrated-surrogate. Here, the multi-fidelity procedure presented is a generalization of multi-index stochastic collocation that can leverage ensembles of models of varying cost and accuracy, for one or more components, to reduce the computational cost of constructing the integrated-surrogate. Extensive numerical results demonstrate that, for a fixed computational budget, our algorithm is able to produce surrogates that are orders of magnitude more accurate than methods that treat the integrated system as a black-box.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Π4U: A high performance computing framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification of complex models

We present Π4U,{sup 1} an extensible framework, for non-intrusive Bayesian Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation (UQ+P) of complex and computationally demanding physical models, that can exploit massively parallel computer architectures. The framework incorporates Laplace asymptotic approximations as well as stochastic algorithms, along with distributed numerical differentiation and task-based parallelism for heterogeneous clusters. Sampling is based on the Transitional Markov Chain Monte Carlo (TMCMC) algorithm and its variants. The optimization tasks associated with the asymptotic approximations are treated via the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolution Strategy (CMA-ES). A modified subset simulation method is used for posterior reliability measurements of rare events. The framework accommodates scheduling of multiple physical model evaluations based on an adaptive load balancing library and shows excellent scalability. In addition to the software framework, we also provide guidelines as to the applicability and efficiency of Bayesian tools when applied to computationally demanding physical models. Theoretical and computational developments are demonstrated with applications drawn from molecular dynamics, structural dynamics and granular flow.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Data driven analytic continuation for one particle spectral functions

In this proceeding, an idea is outlined suggesting a generic treatment on any type of input data for a numerical analytic continuation problem, which is needed when dynamical information is to be extracted from a calculationally convenient one particle imaginary time Green function. The quality of the resulting spectral function will rely only on the data to be treated, viz, data-driven. This is different from the Maximum Entropy or the Stochastic method which relies on an entropy term to guide convergence of the resulting spectral function.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Discriminating chaotic and stochastic dynamics through the permutation spectrum test

In this paper, we propose a new heuristic symbolic tool for unveiling chaotic and stochastic dynamics: the permutation spectrum test. Several numerical examples allow us to confirm the usefulness of the introduced methodology. Indeed, we show that it is robust in situations in which other techniques fail (intermittent chaos, hyperchaotic dynamics, stochastic linear and nonlinear correlated dynamics, and deterministic non-chaotic noise-driven dynamics). We illustrate the applicability and reliability of this pragmatic method by examining real complex time series from diverse scientific fields. Taking into account that the proposed test has the advantages of being conceptually simple and computationally fast, we think that it can be of practical utility as an alternative test for determinism.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Stochastic Models for an Optimal Blending of Biomass under Cost, Quality and Uncertainty Considerations

Blending biomass materials of different physical or chemical properties provides an opportunity to passively adjust the quality of the feedstock to meet the specifications of the conversion platform. We propose a model which identifies the right mix of biomass to optimize the performance of the Thermochemical conversion process at the minimum cost. This is a chance-constraint programming (CCP) model which takes into account the stochastic nature of biomass availability and quality. The proposed CCP model takes as inputs the physical and chemical properties, and biomass availability. We use the sample average approximation (SAA) method to solve the problem. We develop a case study for South Carolina by using data provided by the Billion Ton Study. We conduct extensive numerical analysis to evaluate the quality of the solutions obtained.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

A one-time truncate and encode multiresolution stochastic framework

In this work a novel adaptive strategy for stochastic problems, inspired from the classical Harten's framework, is presented. The proposed algorithm allows building, in a very general manner, stochastic numerical schemes starting from a whatever type of deterministic schemes and handling a large class of problems, from unsteady to discontinuous solutions. Its formulations permits to recover the same results concerning the interpolation theory of the classical multiresolution approach, but with an extension to uncertainty quantification problems. The present strategy permits to build numerical scheme with a higher accuracy with respect to other classical uncertainty quantification techniques, but with a strong reduction of the numerical cost and memory requirements. Moreover, the flexibility of the proposed approach allows to employ any kind of probability density function, even discontinuous and time varying, without introducing further complications in the algorithm. The advantages of the present strategy are demonstrated by performing several numerical problems where different forms of uncertainty distributions are taken into account, such as discontinuous and unsteady custom-defined probability density functions. In addition to algebraic and ordinary differential equations, numerical results for the challenging 1D Kraichnan–Orszag are reported in terms of accuracy and convergence. Finally, a two degree-of-freedom aeroelastic model for a subsonic case is presented. Though quite simple, the model allows recovering some physical key aspect, on the fluid/structure interaction, thanks to the quasi-steady aerodynamic approximation employed. The injection of an uncertainty is chosen in order to obtain a complete parameterization of the mass matrix. All the numerical results are compared with respect to classical Monte Carlo solution and with a non-intrusive Polynomial Chaos method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Lattice Monte Carlo simulation of Galilei variant anomalous diffusion

The observation of an increasing number of anomalous diffusion phenomena motivates the study to reveal the actual reason for such stochastic processes. When it is difficult to get analytical solutions or necessary to track the trajectory of particles, lattice Monte Carlo (LMC) simulation has been shown to be particularly useful. To develop such an LMC simulation algorithm for the Galilei variant anomalous diffusion, we derive explicit solutions for the conditional and unconditional first passage time (FPT) distributions with double absorbing barriers. According to the theory of random walks on lattices and the FPT distributions, we propose an LMC simulation algorithm and prove that such LMC simulation can reproduce both the mean and the mean square displacement exactly in the long-time limit. However, the error introduced in the second moment of the displacement diverges according to a power law as the simulation time progresses. We give an explicit criterion for choosing a small enough lattice step to limit the error within the specified tolerance. We further validate the LMC simulation algorithm and confirm the theoretical error analysis through numerical simulations. The numerical results agree with our theoretical predictions very well.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Optimal control of coupled quantum systems based on the first-order Magnus expansion: Application to multiple dipole-dipole-coupled molecular rotors

This paper presents a method for performing approximate optimal control simulations for quantum systems with multiple coupled degrees of freedom. In this work, the time evolution is simulated using the first-order Magnus expansion in the interaction picture, where the couplings between different degrees of freedom are treated as the perturbation. A numerical implementation procedure is presented that leverages upon pairwise couplings and the separability of the zeroth-order time evolution operator to achieve a reduced computational cost, which is analyzed with respect to the number of degrees of freedom. The formulation is compatible with gradient-free methods to optimize the control field, and a stochastic hill climbing algorithm is adopted for this purpose. As illustrations, optimal control simulations are performed for systems of two and three dipole-dipole-coupled molecular rotors under the influence of a control field. For the two-rotor system, the field is optimized to achieve either orientation or entanglement objectives. For the three-rotor system, the field is optimized either to orient all three rotors in the same direction or to orient one rotor in a particular direction while the other two rotors point in the opposite direction.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Competition between roughness and strength for scale-dependent surfaces

Rocks famously have scale-dependent strength, yet the actual dependence is notoriously hard to measure or incorporate into any theoretical framework. Natural rough surfaces present an opportunity to solve the problem. Surfaces sliding in shear evolve as protrusions collide. These asperities can deform or break, thus creating a new surface shape. In particular, natural surfaces have roughness at all scales as well as scale-dependent strength. Based on a scaling analysis, we have previously suggested that the scale-dependent aspect ratio of steady-state surfaces should be proportional to the scale-dependent shear strain at yield. If true, scale-dependent strength could easily be inferred from natural surfaces. Thus, moving beyond the scaling argument to a rigorous treatment of scale-dependent strength for multiscale rough surfaces in shear is important. However, analytic frameworks for analyzing multiscale problems are challenging, as conventional continuum mechanics typically involves a single value for a material property across scales. Here, in this work, we build on the formalism of Persson (2001) that presents a method to compute contact area for rough surfaces with a prescribed topographic spectrum using a stochastic differential equation. The Persson formalism allows for plastic yield under normal loading of otherwise elastic materials and leaves open the possibility of scale-dependent yield stress. In this study, we pursue this route to develop a theory and numerical results for the yielding of a rough, elastoplastic surface with scale-dependent yield stress. Here, we examine surfaces for which the power spectrum of the topography 𝐶 and yield stress 𝑌 follow power laws as a function of scale 𝜆, such that 𝐶∼𝜆 −𝑚 and 𝑌∼𝜆 −𝑛 , respectively. In this formal treatment of the problem, we focus on surfaces in contact and the resulting yield and do not impose shear. Numerical solutions show that the deviation from the elastic scaling solution is bounded as expected by the prior 1D heuristic scaling argument that anticipates the Hurst exponent as 1−𝑛. We also show that the plasticity is expected to erode the contacts if 𝑚 is lower than 𝑛−3, which corresponds to a Hurst exponent lower than 1−𝑛/2. This result is rigorously sound for 2D, i.e., realistic surfaces, and quantitatively different than the prior scaling argument. The theory now permits a correspondingly quantitative approach to interpreting natural surfaces.

elasticity↗

A Hybrid Method for Tensor Decompositions that Leverages Stochastic and Deterministic Optimization

In this paper, we propose a hybrid method that uses stochastic and deterministic search to compute the maximum likelihood estimator of a low-rank count tensor with Poisson loss via state-of-theart local methods. Our approach is inspired by Simulated Annealing for global optimization and allows for fine-grain parameter tuning as well as adaptive updates to algorithm parameters. We present numerical results that indicate our hybrid approach can compute better approximations to the maximum likelihood estimator with less computation than the state-of-the-art methods by themselves.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A First-Passage Kinetic Monte Carlo method for reaction–drift–diffusion processes

Stochastic reaction–diffusion models are now a popular tool for studying physical systems in which both the explicit diffusion of molecules and noise in the chemical reaction process play important roles. The Smoluchowski diffusion-limited reaction model (SDLR) is one of several that have been used to study biological systems. Exact realizations of the underlying stochastic processes described by the SDLR model can be generated by the recently proposed First-Passage Kinetic Monte Carlo (FPKMC) method. This exactness relies on sampling analytical solutions to one and two-body diffusion equations in simplified protective domains. In this work we extend the FPKMC to allow for drift arising from fixed, background potentials. As the corresponding Fokker–Planck equations that describe the motion of each molecule can no longer be solved analytically, we develop a hybrid method that discretizes the protective domains. The discretization is chosen so that the drift–diffusion of each molecule within its protective domain is approximated by a continuous-time random walk on a lattice. New lattices are defined dynamically as the protective domains are updated, hence we will refer to our method as Dynamic Lattice FPKMC or DL-FPKMC. We focus primarily on the one-dimensional case in this manuscript, and demonstrate the numerical convergence and accuracy of our method in this case for both smooth and discontinuous potentials. We also present applications of our method, which illustrate the impact of drift on reaction kinetics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Implicit and explicit schemes for mass consistency preservation in hybrid particle/finite-volume algorithms for turbulent reactive flows

This work addresses the issue of particle mass consistency in Large Eddy Simulation/Probability Density Function (LES/PDF) methods for turbulent reactive flows. Numerical schemes for the implicit and explicit enforcement of particle mass consistency (PMC) are introduced, and their performance is examined in a representative LES/PDF application, namely the Sandia–Sydney Bluff-Body flame HM1. A new combination of interpolation schemes for velocity and scalar fields is found to better satisfy PMC than multilinear and fourth-order Lagrangian interpolation. A second-order accurate time-stepping scheme for stochastic differential equations (SDE) is found to improve PMC relative to Euler time stepping, which is the first time that a second-order scheme is found to be beneficial, when compared to a first-order scheme, in an LES/PDF application. An explicit corrective velocity scheme for PMC enforcement is introduced, and its parameters optimized to enforce a specified PMC criterion with minimal corrective velocity magnitudes.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Global stochastic optimization of stellarator coil configurations

In the construction of a stellarator, the manufacturing and assembling of the coil system is a dominant cost. These coils need to satisfy strict engineering tolerances, and if those are not met the project could be cancelled as in the case of the National Compact Stellarator Experiment (NCSX) project. Therefore, our goal is to find coil configurations that increase construction tolerances without compromising the performance of the magnetic field. In this paper, we develop a gradient-based stochastic optimization model which seeks robust stellarator coil configurations in high dimensions. In particular, we design a two-step method: first, we perform an approximate global search by a sample efficient trust-region Bayesian optimization; second, we refine the minima found in step one with a stochastic local optimizer. To this end, we introduce two stochastic local optimizers: BFGS applied to the sample average approximation; and Adam, equipped with a control variate for variance reduction. Numerical simulations performed on a W7-X-like coil configuration demonstrate that our global optimization approach finds a variety of promising local solutions at less than 0.1% of the cost of previous work, which considered solely local stochastic optimization.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Aging phenomena in the two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

The complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with additive noise is a stochastic partial differential equation that describes a remarkably wide range of physical systems which include coupled non-linear oscillators subject to external noise near a Hopf bifurcation instability and spontaneous structure formation in non-equilibrium systems, e.g., in cyclically competing populations or oscillatory chemical reactions. Here, we employ a finite-difference method to numerically solve the noisy complex Ginzburg-Landau equation on a two-dimensional domain with the goal to investigate its non-equilibrium dynamics when the system is quenched into the “defocusing spiral quadrant”. We observe slow coarsening dynamics as oppositely charged topological defects annihilate each other, and characterize the ensuing aging scaling behavior. We conclude that the physical aging features in this system are governed by non-universal aging scaling exponents. We also investigate systems with control parameters residing in the “focusing quadrant”, and identify slow aging kinetics in that regime as well. Finally, we provide heuristic criteria for the existence of slow coarsening dynamics and physical aging behavior in the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Constant pressure and temperature discrete-time Langevin molecular dynamics

We present a new and improved method for simultaneous control of temperature and pressure in molecular dynamics simulations with periodic boundary conditions. The thermostat-barostat equations are built on our previously developed stochastic thermostat, which has been shown to provide correct statistical configurational sampling for any time step that yields stable trajectories. Here, we extend the method and develop a set of discrete-time equations of motion for both particle dynamics and system volume in order to seek pressure control that is insensitive to the choice of the numerical time step. The resulting method is simple, practical, and efficient. The method is demonstrated through direct numerical simulations of two characteristic model systems—a one-dimensional particle chain for which exact statistical results can be obtained and used as benchmarks, and a three-dimensional system of Lennard-Jones interacting particles simulated in both solid and liquid phases. The results, which are compared against the method of Kolb and Dünweg [J. Chem. Phys. 111, 4453 (1999)], show that the new method behaves according to the objective, namely that acquired statistical averages and fluctuations of configurational measures are accurate and robust against the chosen time step applied to the simulation.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Hypothesis testing of scientific Monte Carlo calculations

The steadily increasing size of scientific Monte Carlo simulations and the desire for robust, correct, and reproducible results necessitates rigorous testing procedures for scientific simulations in order to detect numerical problems and programming bugs. However, the testing paradigms developed for deterministic algorithms have proven to be ill suited for stochastic algorithms. In this paper we demonstrate explicitly how the technique of statistical hypothesis testing, which is in wide use in other fields of science, can be used to devise automatic and reliable tests for Monte Carlo methods, and we show that these tests are able to detect some of the common problems encountered in stochastic scientific simulations. We argue that hypothesis testing should become part of the standard testing toolkit for scientific simulations.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Towards a reference numerical scheme using MCNPX for PWR control rod tip fluence estimations

Recent occurrences of cracks and fissures on the cladding tubes of PWR control rod (CR) fingers employed in the Swiss reactors prompted the need to develop more reliable analytical methods for CR tip fluence estimations. To partly address this need, a deterministic methodology based on SIMULATE-3/CASMO-4 was in recent years developed at PSI. Although this methodology has already been applied for independent support to licensing issues related to CR lifetime, two main questions are currently being the center of attention for further enhancements. First, the methodology relies on several assumptions that have so far not been verified. Secondly, an assessment of the achieved accuracy has not been addressed. In an attempt to answer both these open questions, it was considered appropriate to develop an alternative computational scheme based on the stochastic MCNPX code with the objective to provide reference numerical solutions. This paper presents the first steps undertaken in that direction. To start, a methodology for a volumetric neutron source transfer to full core MCNPX models with detailed CR as well as axial reflector representations is established. On this basis, the assumptions of the deterministic methodology are studied for selected CR configurations for two Beginning-of-Life cores by comparing the spatial neutron flux distributions obtained with the two approaches for the entire spectrum. Finally, for the high-energy range (E> 1 MeV) and for a few CRs, the new MCNPX scheme is applied to estimate the accumulated fluence over one real operated cycle and the results are compared with the deterministic approach. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

A variance deconvolution estimator for efficient uncertainty quantification in Monte Carlo radiation transport applications

Monte Carlo simulations are at the heart of many high-fidelity simulations and analyses for radiation transport systems. As is the case with any complex computational model, it is important to propagate sources of input uncertainty and characterize how they affect model output. Unfortunately, uncertainty quantification (UQ) is made difficult by the stochastic variability that Monte Carlo transport solvers introduce. The standard method to avoid corrupting the UQ statistics with the transport solver noise is to increase the number of particle histories, resulting in very high computational costs. In this contribution, we propose and analyze a sampling estimator based on the law of total variance to compute UQ variance even in the presence of residual noise from Monte Carlo transport calculations. Here, we rigorously derive the statistical properties of the new variance estimator, compare its performance to that of the standard method, and demonstrate its use on neutral particle transport model problems involving both attenuation and scattering physics. We illustrate, both analytically and numerically, the estimator’s statistical performance as a function of available computational budget and the distribution of that budget between UQ samples and particle histories. We show analytically and corroborate numerically that the new estimator is unbiased, unlike the standard approach, and is more accurate and precise than the standard estimator for the same computational budget.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗