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NASA NTRS2010

Methods and apparatus for determining cardiac output

The present invention provides methods and apparatus for determining a dynamical property of the systemic or pulmonary arterial tree using long time scale information, i.e., information obtained from measurements over time scales greater than a single cardiac cycle. In one aspect, the invention provides a method and apparatus for monitoring cardiac output (CO) from a single blood pressure signal measurement obtained at any site in the systemic or pulmonary arterial tree or from any related measurement including, for example, fingertip photoplethysmography.According to the method the time constant of the arterial tree, defined to be the product of the total peripheral resistance (TPR) and the nearly constant arterial compliance, is determined by analyzing the long time scale variations (greater than a single cardiac cycle) in any of these blood pressure signals. Then, according to Ohm's law, a value proportional to CO may be determined from the ratio of the blood pressure signal to the estimated time constant. The proportional CO values derived from this method may be calibrated to absolute CO, if desired, with a single, absolute measure of CO (e.g., thermodilution). The present invention may be applied to invasive radial arterial blood pressure or pulmonary arterial blood pressure signals which are routinely measured in intensive care units and surgical suites or to noninvasively measured peripheral arterial blood pressure signals or related noninvasively measured signals in order to facilitate the clinical monitoring of CO as well as TPR.

Cohen, Richard J.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Boreal Winter Predictions with the GEOS-2 GCM: The Role of Boundary Forcing and Initial Conditions

Ensembles of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM) seasonal forecasts and long-term simulations (1980-94) are analyzed to assess the controlling influences of boundary forcing and memory of the initial conditions. Both the forecasts and simulations are carried out with version 2 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-2) GCM forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). While much of the focus is on the seasonal time scale (January- March) and the Pacific North American (PNA) region, we also present results for other regions, shorter time scales, and other known modes of variability in the northern hemisphere extratropics. Forecasts of indices of some of the key large-scale modes of variability show that there is considerable variability in skill between different regions of the Northern Hemisphere. The eastern North Atlantic region has the poorest long lead forecast skill showing no skill beyond about 10 days. Skillful seasonal forecasts are primarily confined to the wave-like ENSO response emanating from the tropical Pacific. In the Northern Hemisphere, this is associated with the well-known Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern. Memory of the initial conditions is the major factor leading to skillful extratropical forecasts of lead time less than one month, while SST forcing is the only factor at the seasonal time scale. SST forcing contributes to skillful forecasts at sub- seasonal time scales only over the PNA region. The GEOS-2 GCM produces average (1980-94) signal to noise ratios which are less than one everywhere in the extratropics, except for the subtropical Pacific where they approach 1.5. When confined to the ENSO years, the maximum signal to noise ratios occur in the PNA region where they exceed three. An assessment of the sampling distribution of the forecasts suggests the model's ENSO response is very likely too weak. These results show some sensitivity to the uncertainties in the estimates of the SST forcing fields. In the North Pacific region, the sensitivity to SST forcing manifests itself primarily as changes in the variability of the PNA response, underscoring the need for an ensemble approach to the seasonal prediction problem.

Chang, Yehui↗

NASA NTRS1987

The formation of the exponential disk in spiral galaxies

A mechanism for the formation of the exponential stellar disk distribution in spiral galaxies is proposed. It is assumed that the gas which falls in to form the disk behaves like an accretion disk which evolves on a viscous time scale t(v) and forms stars on a time scale t(star). It is demonstrated that if t(v) roughly equals t(star) the resulting stellar disk has an exponential distribution independent of the disk rotation law and of the assumed viscosity prescription. Why the viscous and star formation time scales might be related is briefly commented on.

Lin, D. N. C.↗

NASA NTRS2010

The Causal Connection Between Disc and Power-Law Variability in Hard State Black Hole X-Ray Binaries

We use the XMM-Newton EPIC-pn instrument in timing mode to extend spectral time-lag studies of hard state black hole X-ray binaries into the soft X-ray band. \Ve show that variations of the disc blackbody emission substantially lead variations in the power-law emission, by tenths of a second on variability time-scales of seconds or longer. The large lags cannot be explained by Compton scattering but are consistent with time-delays due to viscous propagation of mass accretion fluctuations in the disc. However, on time-scales less than a second the disc lags the power-law variations by a few ms, consistent with the disc variations being dominated by X-ray heating by the power-law, with the short lag corresponding to the light-travel time between the power-law emitting region and the disc. Our results indicate that instabilities in the accretion disc are responsible for continuum variability on time-scales of seconds or longer and probably also on shorter time-scales.

Uttley, P.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Optical variability of quasars with 20-yr photometric light curves

ABSTRACT We study the optical gri photometric variability of a sample of 190 quasars within the SDSS Stripe 82 region that have long-term photometric coverage during ∼1998−2020 with SDSS, PanSTARRS-1, the Dark Energy Survey, and dedicated follow-up monitoring with Blanco 4m/DECam. With on average ∼200 nightly epochs per quasar per filter band, we improve the parameter constraints from a Damped Random Walk (DRW) model fit to the light curves over previous studies with 10–15 yr baselines and ≲ 100 epochs. We find that the average damping time-scale τDRW continues to rise with increased baseline, reaching a median value of ∼750 d (g band) in the rest frame of these quasars using the 20-yr light curves. Some quasars may have gradual, long-term trends in their light curves, suggesting that either the DRW fit requires very long baselines to converge, or that the underlying variability is more complex than a single DRW process for these quasars. Using a subset of quasars with better-constrained τDRW (less than 20 per cent of the baseline), we confirm a weak wavelength dependence of τDRW∝λ0.51 ± 0.20. We further quantify optical variability of these quasars over days to decades time-scales using structure function (SF) and power spectrum density (PSD) analyses. The SF and PSD measurements qualitatively confirm the measured (hundreds of days) damping time-scales from the DRW fits. However, the ensemble PSD is steeper than that of a DRW on time-scales less than ∼ a month for these luminous quasars, and this second break point correlates with the longer DRW damping time-scale.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2008

Relationship between Mean Winds and Large 10-day Precipitation Anomalies over the Continental U.S.

To better understand the role of surface boundary forcing upon interannual and decadal variability of droughts and precipitation excesses over the continental U. S., an observational study has been carried out to better investigate the dynamical linkages between surface boundary forcing and droughts/floods. This study examines the relationship during the warm season between observed mean wind patterns on the 10-15 day time scale and anomalies in precipitation on that same time scale over the U. S. Each of the 7 cases of significant 10-day, warm-season drought over the U, S. since 1948 that has been investigated was accompanied by significant continental-scale ridging of the mean 10-day 250 mb wind pattern over the continental U.S. and a mid-Pacific relative maximum of 250 mb wind speed of at least 30 m/sec within 20 degrees of the international Date Line. This perhaps suggests the presence of a wave-guide phenomenon over the Pacific. The drought signal for each of these cases was still quite evident when averaged over the monthly time scale. While peak magnitudes of the precipitation anomalies were much larger for the 7 chosen cases of significant of precipitation excess were than for the drought cases none of the patterns of precipitation excess were as unambiguous or wide-spread as the drought cases. In only 2 to 3 cases was there evidence of a continental trough in the 250 mb winds. In fact, one case showed slight ridging over Canada and the extreme northern U.S. Strong southerly low-level jets, however, were evident in the 925 mb winds over south-central Texas or the nearby Gulf of Mexico in virtually all of the excessive precipitation cases, while the Great Plains LLJ was weak or displaced to the north of Texas in most of the drought cases. We will further investigate the asymmetry between droughts and precipitation excesses in their horizontal homogeneity and extent, in their temporal evolution, and in how the are forced by the combined effects of the mean 250 mb westerlies and the mean 925 mb southerly winds.

Helfand, H. Mark↗

NASA NTRS2020

Radiography in High Mass X-Ray Binaries: Micro-Structure of the Stellar Wind Through Variability of the Column Density

Context. In high mass X-ray binaries, an accreting compact object orbits a high mass star, which loses mass through a dense and in homogeneous wind. Aims. Using the compact object as an X-ray backlight, the time variability of the absorbing column density in the wind can be exploited in order to shed light on the micro-structure of the wind and obtain unbiased stellar mass-loss rates for high mass stars. Methods. We developed a simplified representation of the stellar wind where all the matter is gathered in spherical “clumps” that are radially advected away from the star. This model enables us to explore the connections between the stochastic properties of the wind and the variability of the column density for a comprehensive set of parameters related to the orbit and to the wind micro-structure, such as the size of the clumps and their individual mass. In particular, we focus on the evolution with the orbital phase of the standard deviation of the column density and of the characteristic duration of enhanced absorption episodes. Using the porosity length, we derive analytical predictions and compare them to the standard deviations and coherence time scales that were obtained. Results. We identified the favorable systems and orbital phases to determine the wind micro-structure. The coherence time scale of the column density is shown to be the self-crossing time of a single clump in front of the compact object. We thus provide a procedure to get accurate measurements of the size and of the mass of the clumps, purely based on the observable time variability of the column density. Conclusions. The coherence time scale grants direct access to the size of the clumps, while their mass can be deduced separately from the amplitude of the variability. We further show how monitoring the variability at superior conjunctions can probe the onset of the clump-forming region above the stellar photosphere. If the high column density variations in some high mass X-ray binaries are due to unaccreted clumps which are passing by the line-of-sight, this would require high mass clumps to reproduce the observed peak-to-peak amplitude and coherence time scales. These clump properties are marginally compatible with the ones derived from radiative-hydrodynamics simulations. Alternatively, the following components could contribute to the variability of the column density: larger orbital scale structures produced by a mechanism that has yet to be identified or a dense environment in the immediate vicinity of the accretor, such as an accretion disk, an outflow, or a spherical shell surrounding the magnetosphere of the accreting neutron star.

stars: mass loss↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the relation between active-region lifetimes and the autocorrelation function of light curves

ABSTRACT Rotational modulation of stellar light curves due to dark spots encloses information on spot properties and, thus, on magnetic activity. In particular, the decay of the autocorrelation function (ACF) of light curves is presumed to be linked to spot/active-region lifetimes, given that some coherence of the signal is expected throughout their lifetime. In the literature, an exponential decay has been adopted to describe the ACF. Here, we investigate the relation between the ACF and the active-region lifetimes. For this purpose, we produce artificial light curves of rotating spotted stars with different observation, stellar, and spot properties. We find that a linear decay and respective time-scale better represent the ACF than the exponential decay. We therefore adopt a linear decay. The spot/active-region time-scale inferred from the ACF is strongly restricted by the observation length of the light curves. For 1-yr light curves our results are consistent with no correlation between the inferred and the input time-scales. The ACF decay is also significantly affected by differential rotation and spot evolution: strong differential rotation and fast spot evolution contribute to a more severe underestimation of the active-region lifetimes. Nevertheless, in both circumstances the observed time-scale is still correlated with the input lifetimes. Therefore, our analysis suggests that the ACF decay can be used to obtain a lower limit of the active-region lifetimes for relatively long-term observations. However, strategies to avoid or flag targets with fast active-region evolution or displaying stable beating patterns associated with differential rotation should be employed.

Santos, A. R. G. (ORCID:0000000171956542)↗

NASA NTRS1981

On the fragmentation of rotating interstellar clouds

Simple physical arguments are used to estimate the time scale for fragmentation of a collapsing, rotating, isothermal, interstellar cloud. This time scale is compared with a similarly estimated time scale for the collapse upon itself of a transitory ring structure. It is shown to be plausible for a cloud with a given ratio of rotational to gravitational energy (beta) that as the ratio of thermal to gravitational energy (alpha) is varied, there is an intermediate range of alpha where a ring forms and collapses on itself, prior to fragmentation. For higher or lower alpha, however, the cloud fragments prior to ring self-collapse. The analysis is compared with the results of numerical multidimensional, gravitational, hydrodynamical collapse and shown to be in good agreement with them.

Boss, A. P.↗

NASA NTRS1981

On the Fragmentation of Rotating Interstellar Clouds

Simple physical arguments are used to estimate the time scale for fragmentation of a collapsing, rotating, isothermal, interstellar cloud. This time scale is compared with a similarly estimated time scale for the collapse upon itself of a transitory ring structure. It is shown to be plausible for a cloud with a given ratio of rotational to gravitational energy (beta) that as the ratio of thermal to gravitational energy (alpha) is varied, there is an intermediate range of alpha where a ring forms and collapses on itself, prior to fragmentation. For higher or lower alpha however, the cloud fragments prior to ring self-collapse. The analysis is compared with the results of numerical multidimensional, gravitational, hydrodynamical collapse and shown to be in good agreement with them.

Boss, Alan Paul↗

DOE OSTI2024

Diabatic Eddy Forcing Increases Persistence and Opposes Propagation of the Southern Annular Mode in MERRA-2

Abstract As a dominant mode of jet variability on subseasonal time scales, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) provides a window into how the atmosphere can produce internal oscillations on longer-than-synoptic time scales. While SAM’s existence can be explained by dry, purely barotropic theories, the time scale for its persistence and propagation is set by a lagged interaction between barotropic and baroclinic mechanisms, making the exact physical mechanisms challenging to identify and to simulate, even in latest generation models. By partitioning the eddy momentum flux convergence in MERRA-2 using an eddy–mean flow interaction framework, we demonstrate that diabatic processes (condensation and radiative heating) are the main contributors to SAM’s persistence in its stationary regime, as well as the key for preventing propagation in this regime. In SAM’s propagating regime, baroclinic and diabatic feedbacks also dominate the eddy–jet feedback. However, propagation is initiated by barotropic shifts in upper-level wave breaking and then sustained by a baroclinic response, leading to a roughly 60-day oscillation period. This barotropic propagation mechanism has been identified in dry, idealized models, but here we show evidence of this mechanism for the first time in reanalysis. The diabatic feedbacks on SAM are consistent with modulation of the storm-track latitude by SAM, altering the emission temperature and cloud cover over individual waves. Therefore, future attempts to improve the SAM time scale in models should focus on the storm-track location, as well as the roles of the cloud and moisture parameterizations. Significance Statement As they circumnavigate the planet, the tropospheric jet streams slowly drift north and south over about 30 days, longer than the normal limit of weather prediction. Understanding the source of this “memory” could improve our knowledge of how the atmosphere organizes itself and our ability to make long-term forecasts. Current theories have identified several possible internal atmospheric interactions responsible for this memory. Yet most of the theories for understanding the jets’ behavior assume that this behavior is only weakly influenced by atmospheric water vapor. We show that this assumption is not enough to understand jet persistence. Instead, clouds and precipitation are more important contributors in reanalysis data than internal “dry” mechanisms to this memory of the Southern Hemisphere jet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Tethered Polymers on Dynamics of Nanoparticles in Unentangled Polymer Melts

Polymer-tethered nanoparticles (NPs) are commonly added to a polymer matrix to improve the material properties. Critical to the fabrication and processing of such composites is the mobility of the tethered NPs. Here, we study the motion of tethered NPs in unentangled polymer melts using molecular dynamics simulations, which offer a precise control of the grafted chain length N g and the number z of grafted chains per particle. As Ng increases, there is a crossover from particle-dominated to tethered-chain-dominated terminal diffusion of NPs with the same z. The mean squared displacement of loosely tethered NPs in the case of tethered-chain-dominated terminal diffusion exhibits two subdiffusive regimes at intermediate time scales for small z. The first one at shorter time scales arises from the dynamical coupling of the particle and matrix chains, while the one at longer time scales is due to the participation of the particle in the dynamics of the tethered chains. The friction of loosely grafted chains in unentangled melts scales linearly with the total number of monomers in the chains, as the friction of individual monomers is additive in the absence of hydrodynamic coupling. As more chains are grafted to a particle, hydrodynamic interactions between grafted chains emerge. As a result, there is a nondraining layer of hydrodynamically coupled chain segments surrounding the bare particle. Outside the nondraining layer is a free-draining layer of grafted chain segments with no hydrodynamic coupling. The boundary of the two layers is the stick surface where the shear stress due to the relative melt flow is balanced by the friction between the grafted and melt chains in the interpenetration layer. The stick surface is located further away from the bare surface of the particle with higher grafting density.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS1992

Estimation of surface heat and moisture fluxes over a prairie grassland. II - Two-dimensional time filtering and site variability

The behavior of in situ measurements of surface fluxes obtained during FIFE 1987 is examined by using correlative and spectral techniques in order to assess the significance of fluctuations on various time scales, from subdiurnal up to synoptic, intraseasonal, and annual scales. The objectives of this analysis are: (1) to determine which temporal scales have a significant impact on areal averaged fluxes and (2) to design a procedure for filtering an extended flux time series that preserves the basic diurnal features and longer time scales while removing high frequency noise that cannot be attributed to site-induced variation. These objectives are accomplished through the use of a two-dimensional cross-time Fourier transform, which serves to separate processes inherently related to diurnal and subdiurnal variability from those which impact flux variations on the longer time scales. A filtering procedure is desirable before the measurements are utilized as input with an experimental biosphere model, to insure that model based intercomparisons at multiple sites are uncontaminated by input variance not related to true site behavior. Analysis of the spectral decomposition indicates that subdiurnal time scales having periods shorter than 6 hours have little site-to-site consistency and therefore little impact on areal integrated fluxes.

Crosson, William L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Probing time-resolved plasma-driven solution electrochemistry in a falling liquid film plasma reactor: Identification of HO$^−_2$ as a plasma-derived reducing agent

Many applications involving plasma–liquid interactions depend on the reactive processes occurring at the plasma–liquid interface. In this article, we report on a falling liquid film plasma reactor allowing for in situ optical absorption measurements of the time-dependence of the ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox reactivity, complemented with ex situ measurement of the decomposition of formate. We found excellent agreement between the measured decomposition percentages and the diffusion-limited decomposition of formate by interfacial plasma-enabled reactions, except at high pH in thin liquid films, indicating the involvement of previously unexplored plasma-induced liquid phase chemistry enabled by long-lived reactive species. We also determined that high pH facilitates a reduction-favoring environment in ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox solutions. In situ conversion measurements of a 1:1 ferricyanide/ferrocyanide redox mixture exceed the measured ex situ conversion and show that conversion of a 1:1 ferricyanide/ferrocyanide mixture is strongly dependent on film thickness. We identified three dominant processes: reduction faster than ms time scales for film thicknesses >100 µm, •OH-driven oxidation on time scales of <10 ms, and reduction on 15 ms time scales for film thickness <100 µm. We attribute the slow reduction and larger formate decomposition at high pH to HO$^−_2$ formed from plasma-produced H 2 O 2 enabled by the high pH at the plasma–liquid interface as confirmed experimentally and by computed reaction rates of HO$^−_2$ with ferricyanide. Overall, this work demonstrates the utility of liquid film reactors in enabling the discovery of new plasma-interfacial chemistry and the utility of atmospheric plasmas for electrodeless electrochemistry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Strong Red Noise Ocean Forcing on Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Assessed from Surface Heat Flux: Theory and Application

The role of ocean forcing on Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is assessed from the (downward) heat flux–SST relation in the framework of a new stochastic climate theory forced by red noise ocean forcing. Previous studies suggested that atmospheric forcing drives SST variability from monthly to interannual time scales, with a positive heat flux–SST correlation, while heat flux induced by ocean processes can drive SST variability at decadal and longer time scales, with a negative heat flux–SST correlation. Here, first, we develop a theory to show how the sign of heat flux–SST correlation is affected by atmospheric and oceanic forcing with time scale. In particular, a red noise ocean forcing is necessary for the sign reversal of heat flux–SST correlation. Furthermore, this sign reversal can be detected equivalently in three approaches: the low-pass correlation at lag zero, the unfiltered correlation at long (heat flux) lead, and the real part of the heat flux–SST coherence. Second, we develop a new scheme in combination with the theory to assess the magnitude and time scale of the red noise ocean forcing for AMV in the GFDL SPEAR model (Seamless System for Prediction and Earth System Research) and observations. In both the model and observations, the ocean forcing on AMV is in general comparable with the atmospheric forcing, with a 90% probability greater than the atmospheric forcing in observations. In contrast to the white noise atmospheric forcing, the ocean forcing has a persistence time comparable or longer than a year, much longer than the SST persistence of ~3 months. This slow ocean forcing is associated implicitly with slow subsurface ocean dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1994

Termination shock response to large-scale solar wind fluctuations

The analysis of data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft indicates the presence of large-scale fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure on the time scale of tens of days. The amplitude of the fluctuations is highly variable but often lies within a factor of 5 to 10 change from an average or mean value of the ram pressure. Since the spacecraft has presumably not encountered the termination shock yet, these fluctuations should eventually interact with the shock and thereby play a role in determining the shock location. Numerical solutions of the time-dependent gasdynamic equations are used to simulate the response of the termination shock to fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure comparable to those observed. The primary result of this study is that the maximum shock excursion due to the fluctuations is of the order of 1 AU, which is much smaller than that predicted by other studies. Additional simulations show that the limited movement is due to the fact that the time scale for the termination shock response is substantially larger than the time scale of the fluctuations. It is also shown that the heliopause acts as a barrier for the fluctuations and confines them to the heliosphere.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Termination shock response to large-scale solar wind fluctuations

The analysis of data recorded by the Voyager 2 spacecraft indicates the presence of large-scale fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure on the time scale of tens of days. The amplitude of the fluctuations is highly variable but often lies within a factor of 5 to 10 change from an average or mean value of the ram pressure. Since the spacecraft has presumably not encountered the termination shock yet, these fluctuations should eventually interact with the shock and thereby play a role in determining the shock location. Numerical solutions of the time-dependent gas dynamic equations are used to simulate the response of the termination shock to fluctuations in the solar wind ram pressure comparable to those observed. The primary result of this study is that the maximum shock excursion due to the fluctuations is of the order of 1 AU, which is much smaller than that predicted by other studies. Additional simulations show that the limited movement is due to the fact that the time scale for the termination shock response is substantially larger than the time scale of the fluctuations. It is also shown that the heliopause acts as a barrier for the fluctuations and confines them to the heliosphere.

Steinolfson, R. S.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Air-sea interactions and precipitation over the tropical oceans

In this lecture, the author principally discusses air-sea exchanges that are relevant to climate and global problems. The processes of interest are those acting over time scales of months to decades, which in some instances are influenced by smaller-time-scale processes, down to the diurnal time scale. The repsective influence of these processes varies with regions, seasons and scales over which they occur and, because these processes are mostly nonlinear, scale interactions can be quite complex. Owing to the breadth of the topic addressed, the discussion is mostly focused on the tropical regions where air-sea interactions and precipitation processes eventually affect the entire globe. This allows a look in more detail at some air-sea processes, such as those associated with the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO). This oscillation, which affects the climate of the entire globe, acts over periods of a year or longer and is caused, primarily, by sea surface temperature (SST) variations in the tropical Pacific. As a result, SST variability is often used as an indicator of coupled ocean-atmosphere low-frequency variability. Global or basin scale processes can uniquely be observed from space-born instruments with the coverage required. Space based techniques have been developed during the last decade which can now be used to illustrate the scientific issues presented and the presentation concludes with an overview of some Earth Observing System (EOS) capabilities for addressing air-sea interactions and hydrology issues.

Gautier, C.↗