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At least 433 records · Page 24

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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗

NASA NTRS2018

A Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure and guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. The theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be 4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Launch Vehicle↗

NASA NTRS2019

Prognostic Launch Vehicle Probability of Failure Assessment Methodology for Conceptual Systems Predicated on Human Causal Factors

Lessons learned from past failures of launch vehicle developments and operations were used to create a new method to predict the probability of failure of conceptual systems. Existing methods such as Probabilistic Risk Assessments and Human Risk Assessments were considered but found to be too cumbersome for this type of system-wide application for yet-to-be-flown vehicles. The basis for this methodology were historic databases of past failures, where it was determined that various faulty human-interactions were the predominant root causes of failure rather than deficient component reliabilities evaluated through statistical analysis. This methodology contains an expert scoring part which can be used in either a qualitative or a quantitative mode. The method produces two products: a numerical score of the probability of failure or guidance to program management on critical areas in need of increased focus to improve the probability of success. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of this new method, data from a concluded vehicle program (USAF's Titan IV with the Centaur G-Prime upper stage) was used as a test case. Although the theoretical vs. actual probability of failure was found to be in reasonable agreement (4.46% vs. 6.67% respectively) the underlying sub-root cause scoring had significant disparities attributable to significant organizational changes and acquisitions. Recommendations are made for future applications of this method to ongoing launch vehicle development programs.

Craig H Williams↗

NASA NTRS2010

Statistical Analysis of a Large Sample Size Pyroshock Test Data Set Including Post Flight Data Assessment

The Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra spacecraft was launched on an Atlas IIAS launch vehicle on its mission to observe planet Earth in late 1999. Prior to launch, the new design of the spacecraft's pyroshock separation system was characterized by a series of 13 separation ground tests. The analysis methods used to evaluate this unusually large amount of shock data will be discussed in this paper, with particular emphasis on population distributions and finding statistically significant families of data, leading to an overall shock separation interface level. The wealth of ground test data also allowed a derivation of a Mission Assurance level for the flight. All of the flight shock measurements were below the EOS Terra Mission Assurance level thus contributing to the overall success of the EOS Terra mission. The effectiveness of the statistical methodology for characterizing the shock interface level and for developing a flight Mission Assurance level from a large sample size of shock data is demonstrated in this paper.

Hughes, William O.↗

NASA NTRS1992

Uncertainties in obtaining high reliability from stress-strength models

There has been a recent interest in determining high statistical reliability in risk assessment of aircraft components. The potential consequences are identified of incorrectly assuming a particular statistical distribution for stress or strength data used in obtaining the high reliability values. The computation of the reliability is defined as the probability of the strength being greater than the stress over the range of stress values. This method is often referred to as the stress-strength model. A sensitivity analysis was performed involving a comparison of reliability results in order to evaluate the effects of assuming specific statistical distributions. Both known population distributions, and those that differed slightly from the known, were considered. Results showed substantial differences in reliability estimates even for almost nondetectable differences in the assumed distributions. These differences represent a potential problem in using the stress-strength model for high reliability computations, since in practice it is impossible to ever know the exact (population) distribution. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability. An alternative reliability computation procedure is examined involving determination of a lower bound on the reliability values using extreme value distributions. This procedure reduces the possibility of obtaining nonconservative reliability estimates. Results indicated the method can provide conservative bounds when computing high reliability.

Neal, Donald M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Emulating ab initio computations of infinite nucleonic matter

We construct efficient emulators for the computation of the infinite nuclear matter equation of state. These emulators are based on the subspace-projected coupled-cluster method for which we here develop a new algorithm called small-batch voting to eliminate spurious states that might appear when emulating quantum many-body methods based on a non-Hermitian Hamiltonian. The efficiency and accuracy of these emulators facilitate a rigorous statistical analysis within which we explore nuclear matter predictions for > 10 6 different parametrizations of a chiral interaction model with explicit Δ -isobars at next-to-next-to leading order. Constrained by nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts and bound-state observables of light nuclei up to He 4 , we use history matching to identify nonimplausible domains for the low-energy coupling constants of the chiral interaction. Within these domains we perform a Bayesian analysis using sampling and importance resampling with different likelihood calibrations and study correlations between interaction parameters, calibration observables in light nuclei, and nuclear matter saturation properties. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2020

An Algorithm for Characterization of Fiber Aggregation in Composite Microstructures

Composite structures are susceptible to localized flaws, or variability, that drive global failure. To capture this variance, a multiscale model needs to be introduced that not only accurately represents the statistical nature of the composite microstructure but is also efficient. At the microscale, fiber aggregation creates local stress concentrations, where failure is likely to occur sooner than expected. A method of rapid microstructure generation, in conjunction with cluster characterization, is examined to develop accurate reproductions of 2D composite cross-sections. Parameterization of shape and size of fiber clusters is used to characterize representative volume elements. The discrete element method is used to generate pseudo-microstructures. The clustering parameters from the pseudo- and actual microstructure arrangements (obtained from micrographs) can be compared to determine the validity of the representative volume element generated with the discrete element method. Results show a promising approach to evaluating randomness of fiber distributions and how to accurately recreate microstructures for strength analysis.

Carbon fiber↗

NASA NTRS1992

Interval prediction in structural dynamic analysis

Methods for assessing the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models are examined with attention given to the effects of modal mass, stiffness, and damping uncertainties. The methods are based on a nondeterministic analysis called 'interval prediction' in which interval variables are used to describe parameters and responses that are unknown. Statistical databases for generic modeling uncertainties are derived from experimental data and incorporated analytically to evaluate responses. Covariance matrices of modal mass, stiffness, and damping parameters are propagated numerically in models of large space structures by means of three methods. The test data tend to fall within the predicted intervals of uncertainty determined by the statistical databases. The present findings demonstrate the suitability of using data from previously analyzed and tested space structures for assessing the predictive accuracy of an analytical model.

Hasselman, Timothy K.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Constraining Galaxy-Halo connection using machine learning

We investigate the potential of machine learning (ML) methods to model small-scale galaxy clustering for constraining Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) parameters. Our analysis reveals that while many ML algorithms report good statistical fits, they often yield likelihood contours that are significantly biased in both mean values and variances relative to the true model parameters. This highlights the importance of careful data processing and algorithm selection in ML applications for galaxy clustering, as even seemingly robust methods can lead to biased results if not applied correctly. ML tools offer a promising approach to exploring the HOD parameter space with significantly reduced computational costs compared to traditional brute-force methods if their robustness is established. Using our ANN-based pipeline, we successfully recreate some standard results from recent literature. Properly restricting the HOD parameter space, transforming the training data, and carefully selecting ML algorithms are essential for achieving unbiased and robust predictions. Among the methods tested, artificial neural networks (ANNs) outperform random forests (RF) and ridge regression in predicting clustering statistics, when the HOD prior space is appropriately restricted. We demonstrate these findings using the projected two-point correlation function (w p (r p )), angular multipoles of the correlation function (ξ ℓ (r)), and the void probability function (VPF) of Luminous Red Galaxies from Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument mocks. Our results show that while combining w p (r p ) and VPF improves parameter constraints, adding the multipoles ξ 0 , ξ 2 , and ξ 4 to w p (r p ) does not significantly improve the constraints.

cosmology↗

NASA NTRS1997

Evaluation of heart rate changes: electrocardiographic versus photoplethysmographic methods

The heart rate (HR) variation to forced deep breathing (HRDB) and to the Valsalva maneuver (Valsalva ratio; VR) are the two most widely used tests of cardiovagal function in human subjects. The HR is derived from a continuously running electrocardiographic (ECG) recording. Recently, HR derived from the arterial waveform became available on the Finapres device (FinapHR), but its ability to detect rapid changes in HR remains uncertain. We therefore evaluated HRDB and VR derived from FinapHR using ECG-derived HR (ECGHR) recordings as the standard. We also compared the averaged HR on Finapres (Finapav) with beat-to-beat Finapres (FinapBB) values. Studies were undertaken in 12 subjects with large HR variations: age, 34.5 +/- 9.3 (SD) years; six males and six females. FinapBB values were superimposable upon ECGHR for both HRDB and VR. In contrast, Finapav failed to follow ECGHR for HRDB and followed HRECG with a lag for the VR. To evaluate statistically how closely FinapHR approximated ECGHR, we undertook regression analysis, using mean values for each subject. To compare the two methods, we evaluated the significance of the difference between test and standard values. For HRDB, FinapBB reproducibly recorded HR (R2 = 0.998), and was significantly (p = 0.001) better than Finapav (R2 = 0.616; p < 0.001). For VR, HRBB generated a VR that was not significantly different from the correct values, while HRav generated a value that was slightly but consistently lower than the correct values (p < 0.001). We conclude that FinapHR reliably records HR variations in the beat-to-beat mode for cardiovascular HR tests.

Non-NASA Center↗

DOE OSTI2024

Catalog-level blinding on the bispectrum for DESI-like galaxy surveys

We evaluate the performance of the catalog-level blind analysis technique (blinding) presented in Brieden et al. (2020) in the context of a fixed template power spectrum and bispectrum analysis. This blinding scheme, which is tailored for galaxy redshift surveys similar to the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), has two components: the so-called “AP blinding” (concerning the dilation parameters α$_{∥}$, α$_{⊥}$) and “RSD blinding” (redshift space distortions, affecting the growth rate parameter f). Through extensive testing, including checks for the RSD part in cubic boxes, the impact of AP blinding on mocks with realistic survey sky coverage, and the implementation of a full AP+RSD blinding pipeline, our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the technique in preserving the integrity of cosmological parameter estimation when the analysis includes the bispectrum statistic. We emphasize the critical role of sophisticated — and difficult to accidentally unblind — blinding methods in precision cosmology.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Structured illumination for surface-resolved grazing-incidence X-ray scattering

Grazing-incidence (GI) scattering techniques are widely used to characterize thin films, offering high surface sensitivity and insight into morphology and structure. However, these approaches typically provide statistical averaged information due to elongated footprint or limited spatial resolution due to beam size. Here we introduce a method that combines structured illumination with GI X-ray scattering and leverages our computational imaging approach to resolve local structural details. We demonstrate that our method captures local features of an organic semiconductor thin film without the need for sample rotation as in tomography. The method expands GI techniques from statistical averaging to high-resolution imaging, thereby providing the capability for detailed analysis of local material properties, such as domain shape, orientation and polymorphism, which are critical for advancing material design towards more efficient and tailored materials.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

An approach to the prediction of airplane interior noise

At present there is no well-proven method of calculating airplane interior noise associated with jet and boundary layer sources. In this presentation, statistical energy analysis is used to calculate fuselage skin vibration and interior noise levels, with the sidewall represented as a double-wall system. The results show that, in the case of an unpressurized fuselage, the acoustic transmission is dominated by the non-resonant response of the structure. Extension of the results to include pressurization effects and turbulent boundary layer excitation is discussed, particular emphasis being placed on aerodynamic coincidence.

Wilby, J. F.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Limb-darkening and the structure of the Jovian atmosphere

By observing the transit of various cloud features across the Jovian disk, limb-darkening curves were constructed for three regions in the 4.6 to 5.1 mu cm band. Several models currently employed in describing the radiative or dynamical properties of planetary atmospheres are here examined to understand their implications for limb-darkening. The statistical problem of fitting these models to the observed data is reviewed and methods for applying multiple regression analysis are discussed. Analysis of variance techniques are introduced to test the viability of a given physical process as a cause of the observed limb-darkening.

Newman, W. I.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Autocorrelation in Landsat data

Many computer algorithms for the analysis of Landsat data have a statistical basis which requires that the observations comprise independent samples. Four distinct methods are employed to show that this assumption commonly is not fulfilled for these data. Each leads to a similar conclusion; the data must be sampled no closer than every 10th pixel in order to yield independent estimators. The implications of this are illustrated with a simple example.

Craig, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

Calculation of guaranteed mean power from wind turbine generators

A method for calculating the 'guaranteed mean' power output of a wind turbine generator is proposed. The term 'mean power' refers to the average power generated at specified wind speeds during short-term tests. Correlation of anemometers, the method of bins for analyzing non-steady data, the PROP Code for predicting turbine power, and statistical analysis of deviations in test data from theory are discussed. Guaranteed mean power density for the Clayton Mod-OA system was found to be 8 watts per square meter less than theoretical power density at all power levels, with a confidence level of 0.999. This amounts to 4 percent of rated power.

Spera, D. A.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Fuzzy Adaptive Control for Intelligent Autonomous Space Exploration Problems

The principal objective of the research reported here is the re-design, analysis and optimization of our newly developed neural network fuzzy adaptive controller model for complex processes capable of learning fuzzy control rules using process data and improving its control through on-line adaption. The learned improvement is according to a performance objective function that provides evaluative feedback; this performance objective is broadly defined to meet long-range goals over time. Although fuzzy control had proven effective for complex, nonlinear, imprecisely-defined processes for which standard models and controls are either inefficient, impractical or cannot be derived, the state of the art prior to our work showed that procedures for deriving fuzzy control, however, were mostly ad hoc heuristics. The learning ability of neural networks was exploited to systematically derive fuzzy control and permit on-line adaption and in the process optimize control. The operation of neural networks integrates very naturally with fuzzy logic. The neural networks which were designed and tested using simulation software and simulated data, followed by realistic industrial data were reconfigured for application on several platforms as well as for the employment of improved algorithms. The statistical procedures of the learning process were investigated and evaluated with standard statistical procedures (such as ANOVA, graphical analysis of residuals, etc.). The computational advantage of dynamic programming-like methods of optimal control was used to permit on-line fuzzy adaptive control. Tests for the consistency, completeness and interaction of the control rules were applied. Comparisons to other methods and controllers were made so as to identify the major advantages of the resulting controller model. Several specific modifications and extensions were made to the original controller. Additional modifications and explorations have been proposed for further study. Some of these are in progress in our laboratory while others await additional support. All of these enhancements will improve the attractiveness of the controller as an effective tool for the on line control of an array of complex process environments.

Esogbue, Augustine O.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Path Loss Prediction Over the Lunar Surface Utilizing a Modified Longley-Rice Irregular Terrain Model

This study introduces the use of a modified Longley-Rice irregular terrain model and digital elevation data representative of an analogue lunar site for the prediction of RF path loss over the lunar surface. The results are validated by theoretical models and past Apollo studies. The model is used to approximate the path loss deviation from theoretical attenuation over a reflecting sphere. Analysis of the simulation results provides statistics on the fade depths for frequencies of interest, and correspondingly a method for determining the maximum range of communications for various coverage confidence intervals. Communication system engineers and mission planners are provided a link margin and path loss policy for communication frequencies of interest.

Foore, Larry↗