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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Fisher for complements: extracting cosmology and neutrino mass from the counts-in-cells PDF

In this work, we comprehensively analyse the cosmology dependence of counts-in-cells statistics. Furthermore, we focus on the shape of the one-point probability distribution function (PDF) of the matter density field at mildly non-linear scales. Based on large-deviation statistics, we parametrize the cosmology dependence of the matter PDF in terms of the linear power spectrum, the growth factor, the spherical collapse dynamics, and the non-linear variance. We extend our formalism to include massive neutrinos, finding that the total matter PDF is highly sensitive to the total neutrino mass Mν and can disentangle it from the clustering amplitude σ 8 . Additionally, using more than a million PDFs extracted from the Quijote simulations, we determine the response of the matter PDF to changing parameters in the νΛCDM model and successfully cross-validate the theoretical model and the simulation measurements. We present the first νΛCDM Fisher forecast for the matter PDF at multiple scales and redshifts, and its combination with the matter power spectrum. We establish that the matter PDF and the matter power spectrum are highly complementary at mildly non-linear scales. The matter PDF is particularly powerful for constraining the matter density Ωm, clustering amplitude σ 8 and the total neutrino mass Mν. Adding the mildly non-linear matter PDF to the mildly non-linear matter power spectrum improves constraints on Ω m by a factor of 5 and σ 8 by a factor of 2 when considering the three lowest redshifts. In our joint analysis of the matter PDF and matter power spectrum at three redshifts, the total neutrino mass is constrained to better than 0.01 eV with a total volume of 6 (Gpc h -1 ) 3 . We discuss how density-split statistics can be used to translate those encouraging results for the matter PDF into realistic observables in galaxy surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantal diffusion approach for multinucleon transfer processes in the 58,64 Ni + 208 Pb reactions: Toward the production of unknown neutron-rich nuclei

In recent years, substantial efforts have been made for the study of multinucleon transfer reactions at energies around the Coulomb barrier both experimentally and theoretically, aiming at the production of unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei. It is crucial to provide reliable theoretical predictions based on microscopic theories with sufficient predictive power. Purpose: This article aims to clarify the applicability of the quantal diffusion approach based on the stochastic mean-field (SMF) theory for multinucleon transfer processes. Isotope production cross sections are evaluated for the reactions of 64 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 268 MeV and 58 Ni + 208 Pb at E c.m. = 270 MeV and are compared with available experimental data. Methods: Three-dimensional time-dependent Hartree-Fock (TDHF) calculations are carried out for a range of initial orbital angular momenta with Skyrme SLy4d functional. Quantal diffusion equations, derived based on the SMF theory, for variances and covariance of neutron and proton numbers of reaction products are solved, with microscopic drift and diffusion coefficients obtained from time evolution of occupied single-particle orbitals in TDHF. Secondary de-excitation processes, both particle evaporation and fission, are simulated by a statistical compound-nucleus de-excitation model, gemini++. Dynamics of a fast isospin equilibration process followed by a slow drift toward the mass symmetry are commonly observed, as expected. Various reaction outcomes are evaluated, including average mass and charge numbers of reaction products, total kinetic energy loss (TKEL), scattering angle, contact time, and production cross sections for primary and secondary products. By comparing with the experimental data, we find that SMF and TDHF quantitatively reproduce experimental data for few-nucleon-transfer channels around the average values. In contrast, for many-nucleon-transfer channels, we find that the SMF approach provides much better description of the experimentally measured isotopic distributions. The results underline the importance of beyond-mean-field effects, especially one-body (mean-field) fluctuations and correlations, in describing multinucleon transfer processes. Moreover, through a combined analysis of SMF with a statistical model, gemini++, we find a significant contribution of transfer-induced fission, which is consistent with the experimental observation. In some cases, the SMF approach overestimates the isotopic width, requiring further improvements of the theoretical description. Possible ways to improve the description are discussed. The SMF approach is designed to describe the quantum many-body problem according to an ensemble of mean-field trajectories, taking into account part of many-body correlations in the description. As it requires feasible computational costs comparable to the ordinary TDHF approach, together with further model improvements, it will be a promising tool in the search for optimal reaction conditions to produce yet-unknown neutron-rich heavy nuclei through the multinucleon transfer reaction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Long‐Term Observations of Turbulence Vertical Velocity Spectra in a Convective Mixed Layer: Dependence on Land‐Surface Forcing in the U.S. Southern Great Plains

Doppler lidar vertical velocity retrievals were analyzed for the scale and structure of mixed-layer turbulence over a 7-year period, on fair-weather warm season days (442 cases) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. Based on the hypothesized influence of land-surface forcing and updraft size on convective boundary layer clouds, a spectral analysis was performed to quantify effects of surface forcing (surface buoyancy flux, friction velocity, and evaporative fraction) on turbulence scale. Significant (order-of-magnitude) variations in spectral density were found in the energy-production subrange and mesoscale regimes. Integral scale decreased with increasing buoyancy flux (and Monin-Obukhov stability parameter), while spectral density in the energy-production subrange increased, implying a transition to buoyancy-driven cellular structures with narrower updrafts. The influence of stability parameter was limited to the neutral to convective transition, and could not explain the wide variation in spectral density in the mesoscale regime. However, high friction velocity (u* > 0.5 m s –1 ) was associated with larger integral scale (updraft width), and a greater portion of spectral density in the mesoscale regime. Lidar profiles and radar reflectivity for individual cases revealed evidence of roll and wave-like structures contributing to mesoscale variability on high friction velocity days, suggesting shear instabilities on days with wetter land surface conditions and smaller buoyancy flux. The role of friction velocity emphasizes the multivariate nature of surface influences on turbulence, and implies that variance-based turbulence closures may not be adequate for capturing effects of surface forcing on updraft size.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

MOOSE ProbML: Parallelizable Probabilistic Machine Learning and Uncertainty Quantification Capabilities

The Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) is a widely used open- source finite element software for performing multiphysics multiscale simulations in a massively parallel fashion. Recently, the computational team at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has implemented Probabilistic Machine Learning (ProbML) capabilities in MOOSE—in a parallelized fashion—and enable active learning with large-scale computational models for tasks such as surrogate model development, scale bridging, forward/inverse uncertainty quantification (UQ), Bayesian optimization, etc. This presentation summarizes these developments in MOOSE along with demonstrations on several real applications relevant to nuclear energy. At the fundamental level, samplers like Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube, variance reduction, parallelized Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) support uncertainty propagation in both forward and inverse settings. These samplers can be integrated with the Gaussian processes (GP) suite in MOOSE, which offer several variants like scalar GPs, multi-output GPs, and deep GPs, to enable active learning. These GPs can be tuned using gradient-based optimization methods like Adam and its variants or gradient-free methods like the elliptical slice sampler (a variant of MCMC adept under Gaussian settings) for more complex covariance kernels or likelihoods whose gradient computations can be cumbersome. A variety of batch acquisition functions permit parallelized evaluation of the computational model and support different learning objectives with high efficiency like Bayesian inference, global surrogate development, optimization, etc. Furthermore, libtorch integration supports training, evaluation, and re-training of neural networks and other complex machine learning models in active learning settings. The impacts of these developments are shown on several real applications: (1) nuclear fuel inverse UQ and model inadequacy assessment using the Kennedy O’Hagan framework; (2) uncertainty aware surrogate modeling for additive manufacturing to predict field quantities; (3) nuclear reactor rare events analysis; and (4) complex fluid flow prediction using a global surrogate with quantified prediction uncertainty. Finally, the outlook of MOOSE ProbML is discussed for both outer-loop and inner-loop computations in the broad view to accelerate fuels and materials qualification, address gaps in knowledge and data, and assess new reactor/fuel systems.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Exploration of multifidelity UQ sampling strategies for computer network applications.

Network modeling is a powerful tool to enable rapid analysis of complex systems that can be challenging to study directly using physical testing. Here, two approaches are considered: emulation and simulation. The former runs real software on virtualized hardware, while the latter mimics the behavior of network components and their interactions in software. Although emulation provides an accurate representation of physical networks, this approach alone cannot guarantee the characterization of the system under realistic operative conditions. Operative conditions for physical networks are often characterized by intrinsic variability (payload size, packet latency, etc.) or a lack of precise knowledge regarding the network configuration (bandwidth, delays, etc.); therefore uncertainty quantification (UQ) strategies should be also employed. UQ strategies require multiple evaluations of the system with a number of evaluation instances that roughly increases with the problem dimensionality, i.e., the number of uncertain parameters. It follows that a typical UQ workflow for network modeling based on emulation can easily become unattainable due to its prohibitive computational cost. In this paper, a multifidelity sampling approach is discussed and applied to network modeling problems. The main idea is to optimally fuse information coming from simulations, which are a low-fidelity version of the emulation problem of interest, in order to decrease the estimator variance. By reducing the estimator variance in a sampling approach it is usually possible to obtain more reliable statistics and therefore a more reliable system characterization. Several network problems of increasing difficulty are presented. For each of them, the performance of the multifidelity estimator is compared with respect to the single fidelity counterpart, namely, Monte Carlo sampling. For all the test problems studied in this work, the multifidelity estimator demonstrated an increased efficiency with respect to MC.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Range cost-effectiveness of plug-in electric vehicle for heterogeneous consumers: An expanded total ownership cost approach

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEV) appears to have sales momentum in major personal vehicle markets but are still at the early market stage. Opportunities to accelerate PEV adoption can be discovered through comprehensive total cost of ownership (TCO) analysis. Understanding the cost-effective electric ranges of PEVs for consumers, manufacturers, and the society is critical for any discussion of PEV mass markets. This study expanded the traditional TCO approach by (1) fully considering heterogeneous consumer driving patterns, (2) quantifying the charging inconvenience and range anxiety cost of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), and (3) monetizing both tangible and intangible PEV policies. Uncertainties were handled through Monte Carlo simulation. The results suggest that BEVs with an electric range of 250–350 km have the lowest TCO in cities with government-enacted purchase limitations, and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) have the lowest TCO in cities without purchase limitations, even when considering PEV subsidies. The lowest TCO for some consumer groups is obtained by BEVs with an electric range of 400–450 km, especially in northern China, where the weather is colder. The cost-effective all-electric range for BEVs in each city in 2025 will decrease due to improved battery performance in cold environments and an expanded charging infrastructure. Finally, based on TCO, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are currently more suitable for drivers with a high average daily mileage or a large mileage variance. However, by 2025, BEVs with a long driving range may become a more cost-effective choice for these drivers.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A data-driven method for modelling dissipation rates in stratified turbulence

We present a deep probabilistic convolutional neural network (PCNN) model for predicting local values of small-scale mixing properties in stratified turbulent flows, namely the dissipation rates of turbulent kinetic energy and density variance, $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ . Inputs to the PCNN are vertical columns of velocity and density gradients, motivated by data typically available from microstructure profilers in the ocean. The architecture is designed to enable the model to capture several characteristic features of stratified turbulence, in particular the dependence of small-scale isotropy on the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_b:=\varepsilon /(\nu N^2)$ , where $\nu$ is the kinematic viscosity and $N$ is the background buoyancy frequency, the correlation between suitably locally averaged density gradients and turbulence intensity and the importance of capturing the tails of the probability distribution functions of values of dissipation. Empirically modified versions of commonly used isotropic models for $\varepsilon$ and $\chi$ that depend only on vertical derivatives of density and velocity are proposed based on the asymptotic regimes $Re_b\ll 1$ and $Re_b\gg 1$ , and serve as an instructive benchmark for comparison with the data-driven approach. When trained and tested on a simulation of stratified decaying turbulence which accesses a range of turbulent regimes (associated with differing values of $Re_b$ ), the PCNN outperforms assumptions of isotropy significantly as $Re_b$ decreases, and additionally demonstrates improvements over the fitted empirical models. A differential sensitivity analysis of the PCNN facilitates a comparison with the theoretical models and provides a physical interpretation of the features enabling it to make improved predictions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multitaper Magnitude‐Squared Coherence for Time Series With Missing Data: Understanding Oscillatory Processes Traced by Multiple Observables

To explore the hypothesis of a common source of variability in two time series, observers may estimate the magnitude-squared coherence (MSC), which is a frequency-domain view of the cross correlation. For time series that do not have uniform observing cadence, MSC can be estimated using Welch's overlapping segment averaging. However, multitaper has superior statistical properties to Welch's method in terms of the tradeoff between bias, variance, and bandwidth. The classical multitaper technique has recently been extended to accommodate time series with underlying uniform observing cadence from which some observations are missing. This situation is common for solar and geomagnetic data sets, which may have gaps due to breaks in satellite coverage, instrument downtime, or poor observing conditions. We demonstrate the scientific use of missing-data multitaper magnitude-squared coherence by detecting known solar mid-term oscillations in simultaneous, missing-data time series of solar Lyman α flux and geomagnetic Disturbance Storm Time index. Due to their superior statistical properties, we recommend that multitaper methods be used for all heliospheric time series with underlying uniform observing cadence.

Astro-statistics techniques (1886)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of a Novel Heat Pump Model for Estimating Economic Viability and Barriers of Heat Pumps in Dairy Applications in the United States

Heat pumps represent an important opportunity for energy savings and decarbonization. This work investigates the techno-economic performance of high-temperature heat pumps (HTHPs) for use in the U.S. dairy industry. The studied heat pump performs a 50 °C temperature lift on a waste heat stream of cleaning water and applies the upgraded heat stream to a fluid milk pasteurization process. This work involved the creation of a HTHP model that estimated the coefficient of performance (COP), internal rate of return (IRR), net present value (NPV), and payback period (PBP), and emissions saved for a heat pump replacing a natural gas boiler. Capital costs, operations, and maintenance (O&M) cost, heat pump lifetime, electricity prices, natural gas prices, and a cost of carbon were varied to perform a parametric study on the factors affecting the break-even price of HTHPs. The results show that HTHP economics are highly sensitive to COP and energy price environment, and less sensitive to capital and O&M cost variance, leading to a large scatter of positive and negative NPVs based on U.S. location. PBPs demonstrate a defined threshold, based on energy price environment, below which favorable two-to-three-year PBPs predominate. This work is focused on the U.S. dairy industry, but international application in relation to fossil vs. electricity price regimes. Heat pumps have seen wider adoption in regions with a high ratio of fossil energy to electricity prices ($/MMBTU vs. $/kWh). The U.S. has plentiful natural gas resulting in lower fossil energy prices which has reduced heat pump adoption. This paper identifies potential first mover industries for HTHP adoption and their associated price regimes even in regions with lower ratios of fossil energy to electricity prices that exist many places globally.

ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION,↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploration of a Novel Technique for Waste Heat Recovery Through Molecular Dynamics: Influence of Wettability and Electric Field on Water and Water-Based Nanofluids

Most of the energy produced globally comes by way of a heat engine. The Carnot principle places a limit as to how thermodynamically efficient a heat engine can be. There is no heat engine that can be 100% thermodynamically efficient and as such a substantial proportion of all heat supplied to a heat engine is lost as waste heat. Waste heat therefore is a large energy source ready to be properly utilized. Herein, a novel approach for converting waste heat to electricity is discussed. It involves the use of the liquid to vapor phase change of a material dielectric (water) or electrolyte (nanofluid) in the embodiment of a capacitor for direct thermal to electrostatic energy conversion. While this method of waste heat recovery could potentially be added to the ever expanding portfolio of energy conversion techniques, a number of aspects must be addressed before it can be brought into practice. Water was seen as an ideal dielectric phase change material given its high relative permittivity ratio when in the liquid form as compared to its vapor form. However, given its short voltage holdoff time the phase change of water would need to occur rapidly. This brings up concerns of explosive boiling. Herein, molecular dynamics analysis into the explosive boiling behavior of thin water films gave more insight into how the interaction between the surface and liquid affected explosive boiling onset time. A Lennard-Jones potential with one interaction site and a Morse potential with three interaction sites between water and solid substrate were used. It was found generally that a stronger interaction between water film and substrate led to faster explosive boiling onset times but an increase in the number of interaction sites delayed explosive boiling, even at the same wettability (contact angle). Understanding changes in the density and enthalpy of vaporization of a liquid dielectric such as water in the presence of an electric field is of importance due to the electrostatic nature of the waste heat conversion method under consideration. Specifically, if both density and enthalpy of vaporization are increased, the thermodynamic efficiency of the waste heat conversion method under consideration is decreased. Electric field effects are explored herein via molecular dynamics using two water models, the TIP4P-Ew and SWM4-NDP. The SWM4-NDP model is polarizable while the TIP4P-Ew model is not, which allows for a determination of the importance of model polarizability (i.e. variation in water model dipole moment) on these two properties of water when subjected to an electric field. Herein it was found that both water models respond similarly in terms of density and vaporization enthalpy variance upon the introduction of an electric field. Comparison was also made to the pressure induced by the electric field (electrostriction pressure) by way of a density comparison and it was found that the predicted electrostriction pressure overestimates the pressure experienced by water. Water by itself has a high enthalpy of vaporization, which limits the efficiency of the newly proposed conversion method. Research both experimental and through simulation has shown that the vaporization enthalpy of nanofluids can be engineered via nanoparticle size and material selection. An avenue less explored is manipulating the enthalpy of vaporization by altering the interaction strength between the nanoparticles and the base fluid. In practice this could be achieved through the addition of coatings to the nanoparticles to alter their wettability to the base fluid. This was explored by using a Lennard-Jones potential and Morse potential to model the interaction between base fluid (water) and the nanoparticle. For nanoparticles 2nm in diameter and at weight percentages up to 6%, the change in vaporization enthalpy due to alterations of the interaction strength between nanoparticle and base fluid was not significant (less than a 1% difference) when compared to the effect of altering the weight percentage of nanoparticles in the nanofluid or introducing an electric field. However, the effect of wettability may still become important at other nanoparticle concentrations and sizes. In all, the studies presented here further the understanding of phase change and thermodynamic properties of water and water based nanofluids under an electrostatic field which will help inform the development of a novel approach to waste heat conversion. The reduction of waste heat will improve energy sustainability outlooks.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian calibration of irradiated graphite property models under high temperatures

Graphite under high temperatures and irradiation is central to advanced reactors. We develop a Bayesian calibration framework for graphite property models that explicitly represents model-data mismatch via a Gaussian-process discrepancy. The approach propagates uncertainty from parameters, experimental noise, and model form, with a hierarchical variance structure to capture group and cross-group noise. Using two predictive models across five grades (IG-110, NBG-18, PCEA, NBG-17, 2114) and four properties-irradiation-induced dimension change, creep, Young’s modulus change ratio, and coefficient of thermal expansion change ratio-we obtain average predictive-error reductions of 54%, 65%, 17%, and 17% when discrepancy is included. We illustrate engineering impact with a multiphysics model of a very-high-temperature reactor prismatic reflector brick, analyzing stresses under high fluence and temperature. Accounting for model discrepancy markedly improves predictive accuracy and provides a robust basis for reliable graphite component design in advanced reactors.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Preliminary RAM-RODD results for the MUSiC subcritical configurations

The Measurement of Uranium Subcritical and Critical (MUSiC) was performed at the DOE’s National Criticality Experiments Research Center (NCERC) located in the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). The measurement utilized the Rocky Flats shells to perform benchmark measurements of similar highly enriched uranium (HEU) systems that span a wide range of reactivities. The Rocky Flats (RF) shells are 93.16% U-235 enriched metal hemishells that can be stacked concentrically. Ten configurations were measured with effective multiplication factors spanning between deeply subcritical (~ 0.64) through delayed critical. Details of the measured configurations are listed in Table 1. This unique set of measurements with its large span of reactivies is being used to determine the range over which neutron noise techniques such as Feynman variance-to-mean, Rossi-alpha, and pulsed neutron source techniques can be accurately employed for a bare HEU system. The results of the measurements will be published as a benchmark in The International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) Handbook. The results will support the growing amount of subcritical benchmark data, such as the SCRaP measurements, that is available to the community. The measurements were performed using several different detector systems for the purposes of cross-validation and obtaining detector independent results. Four detector systems were deployed, three by the NCERC team and one from the University of Michigan. The detector systems included a Neutron Multiplicity Array Detector (NoMAD) system (similar to the MC-15), four small volume 0.635 cm (Ø) × 7.59 cm 3 He detectors (ideal for measuring prompt neutron decay constants due to their fast recovery speed), the Rossi Alpha Measurements – Rapid Organic (n, γ) Discrimination Detector (RAM-RODD), and the Organic Scintillator Array (OSCAR). RAM-RODD is an array of eight 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm EJ-309 organic scintillator detectors. OSCAR is a University of Michigan system and is an array of twelve 5.08 cm (Ø) × 5.08 cm stilbene detectors. Details of measurements performed with OSCAR will be discussed in a separate talk. The focus of this work is preliminary results obtained by RAM-RODD for the 8 subcritical configurations. Additional details on the measurements and on the setup and deployment of RAM-RODD will be discussed. Preliminary neutron noise analysis results including Rossi-alpha and Feynman-alpha will also be presented.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

The miniJPAS survey quasar selection – I. Mock catalogues for classification

In this series of papers, we employ several machine learning (ML) methods to classify the point-like sources from the miniJPAS catalogue, and identify quasar candidates. Since no representative sample of spectroscopically confirmed sources exists at present to train these ML algorithms, we rely on mock catalogues. In this first paper, we develop a pipeline to compute synthetic photometry of quasars, galaxies, and stars using spectra of objects targeted as quasars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey . To match the same depths and signal-to-noise ratio distributions in all bands expected for miniJPAS point sources in the range 17.5 ≤ r < 24, we augment our sample of available spectra by shifting the original r-band magnitude distributions towards the faint end, ensure that the relative incidence rates of the different objects are distributed according to their respective luminosity functions, and perform a thorough modelling of the noise distribution in each filter, by sampling the flux variance either from Gaussian realizations with given widths, or from combinations of Gaussian functions. Finally, we also add in the mocks the patterns of non-detections which are present in all real observations. Although the mock catalogues presented in this work are a first step towards simulated data sets that match the properties of the miniJPAS observations, these mocks can be adapted to serve the purposes of other photometric surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for two-point correlation function for early DESI data

ABSTRACT We present an extended validation of semi-analytical, semi-empirical covariance matrices for the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on simulated catalogs representative of luminous red galaxies (LRGs) data collected during the initial 2 months of operations of the Stage-IV ground-based Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). We run the pipeline on multiple effective Zel’dovich (EZ) mock galaxy catalogs with the corresponding cuts applied and compare the results with the mock sample covariance to assess the accuracy and its fluctuations. We propose an extension of the previously developed formalism for catalogs processed with standard reconstruction algorithms. We consider methods for comparing covariance matrices in detail, highlighting their interpretation and statistical properties caused by sample variance, in particular, non-trivial expectation values of certain metrics even when the external covariance estimate is perfect. With improved mocks and validation techniques, we confirm a good agreement between our predictions and sample covariance. This allows one to generate covariance matrices for comparable data sets without the need to create numerous mock galaxy catalogs with matching clustering, only requiring 2PCF measurements from the data itself. The code used in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/oliverphilcox/RascalC.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Spectral fluctuations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev model

We present a detailed quantitative analysis of spectral correlations in the Sachdev-Ye-Kitaev (SYK) model. We find that the deviations from universal Random Matrix Theory (RMT) behavior are due to a small number of long-wavelength fluctuations (of the order of the number of Majorana fermions N ) from one realization of the ensemble to the next one. These modes can be parameterized effectively in terms of Q-Hermite orthogonal polynomials, the main contribution being due to scale fluctuations for which we give a simple analytical estimate. Our numerical results for N = 32 show that only the lowest eight polynomials are needed to eliminate the nonuniversal part of the spectral fluctuations. The covariance matrix of the coefficients of this expansion can be obtained analytically from low-order double-trace moments. We evaluate the covariance matrix of the first six moments and find that it agrees with the numerics. We also analyze the spectral correlations in terms of a nonlinear σ-model, which is derived through a Fierz transformation, and evaluate the one and two-point spectral correlation functions to two-loop order. The wide correlator is given by the sum of the universal RMT result and corrections whose lowest-order term corresponds to scale fluctuations. However, the loop expansion of the σ-model results in an ill-behaved expansion of the resolvent, and it gives universal RMT fluctuations not only for q= 4 or higher even q-body interactions, but also for the q= 2 SYK model albeit with a much smaller Thouless energy while the correct result in this case should have been Poisson statistics. In our numerical studies we analyze the number variance and spectral form factor for N = 32 and q = 4. We show that the quadratic deviation of the number variance for large energies appears as a peak for small times in the spectral form factor. After eliminating the long-wavelength fluctuations, we find quantitative agreement with RMT up to an exponentially large number of level spacings for the number variance or exponentially short times in the case of the spectral form factor.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗