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NASA NTRS2026

Manufacturing and Scale-Up of Natural Fiber Composite eVTOL Propeller Skin and C-Channel

This report presents the manufacturing and scale-up of natural fiber composites for aerospace applications, conducted within NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions portfolio to advance aircraft capabilities and efficiency. The effort focused on the development and demonstration of two proof-of-concept articles, an Electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (eVTOL) propeller skin and a C-channel, produced through an iterative design and process optimization approach. Best practices and guidance on addressing key challenges with bio-based composite materials and manufacturing is provided. Ideally suited for non-load-bearing structural components, these emerging materials offer potential for weight reduction, vibration damping, noise mitigation, interference-free communication, and cost savings, without compromising the performance of safety-critical primary structures.

Natural fibers↗
NASA NTRS2026

Spacecraft Water Impurity Monitor, a System for Water Quality Analysis on Exploration Missions Beyond Low Earth Orbit

Exploration missions beyond low-earth-orbit (LEO) will require advanced instrumentation to monitor water quality. Traveling beyond LEO means the transfer of water samples to an Earth-based laboratory for detailed analysis is not feasible. Detailed analysis of water composition during exploration is still necessary, because having the capability to determine the specific organic chemical causing a change in total organic carbon (TOC) or the specific metal or ionic species causing a change in conductivity has the potential to inform the crew health and system management decisions. On a new vehicle such as a lunar or Mars surface habitat or a Mars transit vehicle, finding “new” impurities not seen on ISS should be expected. The key is to identify the impurity so the correct action can be taken. On ISS we can measure TOC, conductivity, and other physical properties but do not have the capability for detailed analysis using vehicle instrumentation. This is acceptable because ISS can send samples down to Earth for further analysis and obtain the detailed composition. The Spacecraft Water Impurity Monitor (SWIM) will provide detailed water quality analysis for missions in which sample down mass is not available. SWIM is a system comprising organic and inorganic analysis modules. For organic chemicals, a gas chromatograph mass spectrometer (GCMS) detects and identifies organic impurities. For inorganic species, a capillary electrophoresis capacitively coupled contactless conductivity detection (CE-C4D) system as well as ion specific electrodes detect and identify metal ions and other inorganic salts / acids. The SWIM technology demonstration project has completed a System Requirements Review (SRR) to finalize detection requirements and is currently working to refine vehicle interface requirements for a future technology demonstration. The project also has begun preliminary flight design activities for the core analyzers in the instrument suite.

Water Monitoring↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ultrafast Nanoimaging of Carrier Funneling in Composition-Graded Semiconductor Nanowires

Recent advances in bandgap engineering of low-dimensional semiconductors have enabled high-efficiency carrier transport in miniaturized electronic and optoelectronic devices. The physical properties and functionalities of these materials are governed by complex carrier dynamics coupled with multiple transport mechanisms in tailored band structures. Here, we report ultrafast nanoimaging of carrier funneling and recombination in composition-grade CdSxSe1-x nanowires using pump-probe near-field nanoscopy. Leveraging the high resolution of this technique in both space and time, we resolve nanoscale local carrier dynamics along composition-graded nanowires, revealing the local variation of composition-dependent carrier mobilities and lifetimes that significantly differ from their uniform composition counterparts. Furthermore, we demonstrate a length-dependent behavior wherein shorter nanowires exhibit enhanced funneling effects, accelerating carrier transport by up to 33%. Our findings provide direct visualization of nanoscale carrier transport while supporting an effective approach for investigating complex carrier interactions in inhomogeneous semiconductor nanostructures, with implications for optimizing next-generation optoelectronic devices.

Yang, Rundi↗
DOE OSTI2025

3D Printing of Polyelectrolyte Complex-Integrated Photocurable Hydrogel Resins

In this study, we developed a photocurable hydrogel resin incorporating a polyelectrolyte complex (PEC) for 3D printing. Acrylamide-based monomers were formulated with varying PEC contents (0–15 wt %) in an aqueous KBr medium to fabricate patterned porous hydrogel structures. The morphology of printed hydrogels was characterized by field-emission scanning electron microscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. Notably, the PEC5 and PEC10 formulations exhibited optimal thermal stability and compressive properties, attributed to the homogeneous distribution of PEC domains within the hydrogel matrix. Furthermore, dye adsorption experiments demonstrated excellent removal efficiency, highlighting the potential of PEC-containing hydrogels for environmental remediation applications, particularly in the treatment of dye-contaminated wastewater.

Yang, Jinchul [University of Tennesse Knoxville]↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advanced Materials for the Lunar Surface: Multiscale Computational Design of Refractory Alloys and Carbides

Emerging operational environments, such as the lunar surface, present novel challenges for NASA and drive the need for advanced materials in applications like fission surface power systems. To address these demands, computational materials science is rapidly evolving to augment or replace costly and hazardous empirical testing. Although materials selection at NASA remains predominantly experimentally driven, advanced simulation methodologies are being steadily integrated into the engineering lifecycle. This work details the application of multiscale simulation techniques—including first-principles calculations, CALPHAD, dislocation dynamics, and molecular dynamics—at NASA's Ames Research Center to evaluate advanced materials for extreme environments. First, we present contributions to the Space Nuclear Propulsion Project. Be-cause propellant channel coatings in nuclear thermal rockets must withstand high-pressure, high-temperature hydro-gen, optimizing these materials is critical. First-principles calculations were employed to establish a rigorous quantitative and qualitative understanding of the behavior of the refractory carbides ZrC, NbC, and their mixtures in high-enthalpy hydrogen environments. This necessitated the generation of high-fidelity thermodynamic models for both stoichiometric and carbon-depleted carbides, both with and without the presence of hydrogen. Furthermore, we highlight efforts under the Refractory Alloy Additive Manufacturing Build Optimization (RAAMBO) project, where existing and novel alloy compositions were assessed for additive manufacturing printability and subsequent performance in applications such as heat pipes and rocket nozzle extensions. This was accomplished through a comprehensive multiscale simulation framework that bridged the gap from the nanometer to the millimeter scale. Across both initiatives, rigorous validation against empirical data was prioritized. By systematically employing a verified and validated computational frame-work, we demonstrate how simulation effectively supports multidisciplinary engineering efforts, builds project-wide confidence, and drives critical materials development.

computational materials↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technology & Design Innovations to Maximize the Reduction Effect on DCFC Unit Cost Economics (Max‐REDUCE)

With the high cost and reliability issues of DCFC infrastructure the project specifically addressed the needs of innovating on the AC to DC power conversion. We proved the integration of a new power module into existing charger units, and that theoretical educational work on single stage energy conversion is commercially viable, and a reduced cost compared to existing methods. Our A sample shown 3 PH 480VAC 60hz to 350VDC 8.5kW power transfer, and our software and simulation proved efficiency greater than 97% from 20kW to > 60kW, over the DC output voltage range 200 – 1200V. The project was stopped before we could implement B sample and execute full power testing, validation and integration into a demonstration charger (budget period 3).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Optical nanofiber testbeds for benchmarking membrane-waveguide photonic integrated circuit platforms toward on-chip quantum inertial sensing

Recent advances in cold atom interferometry with optical and magnetic atom guides have set the stage for quantum inertial sensors capable of operating in dynamic environments. In this work, we present three key innovations—evanescent-field (EF) atom guides, optical nanofiber testbeds, and membrane-waveguide photonic integrated circuit (PIC) platforms—to advance EF-guided atom interferometry. First, we demonstrate EF atom guides on optical nanofiber testbeds, which serve as performance benchmarks for our membrane-waveguide PIC platforms. Second, we achieve low-power (⁠ ~ 5 mW) guiding of freely moving, laser-cooled 133 Cs atoms in two-color, traveling-wave EF optical dipole traps at the novel, heat-efficient magic wavelengths of 793 and 937 nm (i.e., “793/937-nm EF atom guides”). Concurrently, we design and fabricate membrane-waveguide PIC platforms for these EF atom guides; in our prior work, we showed that these structures safely accommodate 4–6 times the required optical trap power under vacuum and enable dense cold atom generation via magneto-optical trapping in the vicinity of the optical wavguide for efficient loading. Third, we verify preserved atomic coherence via microwave fields and EF-coupled Doppler-free Raman beams; to our knowledge, this is the first report of coherence fringes driven by co-propagating EF-coupled Raman beams with only 150 nW of total optical power. By providing a direct comparison between optical nanofiber testbeds and membrane-waveguide PIC platforms, our results lay critical groundwork for the on-chip realization of EF-guided atom interferometry and the development of fully integrated, compact, lightweight, and low-power quantum accelerometers and gyroscopes.

Orozco, Adrian [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-↗
DOE OSTI2026

Solar Heat for Industrial Processes: Integration with Chemical Reactors

The integration of solar thermal systems with chemical reactors has been proposed as part of a larger effort to develop and deploy solar heat for industrial processes (SHIP) technologies. A strong motivation for SHIP processes and technologies is the potential for high thermal efficiency coupled with low-cost thermal energy storage (TES) which can enable commercial deployment of such systems. While there are different ways to categorize SHIP technologies, one important such distinction is between directly irradiated systems and indirect off-sun process driven by a SHIP system. While directly irradiated systems can provide high thermal efficiencies and high fluxes, they usually require complex engineering solutions due to the need for redesigning the established processes and unit operations. In most cases, it is also more challenging to couple such a process to a TES system, losing some of the benefits of SHIP. On the other hand, using a SHIP system to drive an industrial process off-sun can allow better integration with existing process chains, easier TES capabilities, and potential for more applications fitting a specific SHIP technology. However, the integration of SHIP systems with the industrial processes is not fully explored in detail, especially in the case of high-temperature processes such as reforming, cracking, cement manufacturing, and iron/steelmaking. Many of these systems require heating fluxes of >50 kW/m^2, supplied via combustion of hydrocarbons in a fire box and benefitting from radiative heat transfer between the flue gases and the reaction zones. As such, using SHIP systems for such processes is more complex than providing the same thermal input in the form of a heat transfer medium (HTM) entering the reactor, kiln, or furnace. Moreover, in case convective heat transfer using SHIP is envisioned, for example using supercritical CO2 as the HTM from a particle receiver, the thermal integration might be more challenging than initially envisioned: lower heat transfer coefficients and limited approach temperature might require large flow rates, causing a mismatch between the process thermal requirements and the thermal capacity of the SHIP system. In addition, even if the heat exchange between SHIP and reactor is effective, there is still a cold leg HTM at the reaction temperature or slightly below it. Chemical plants usually include a set of heat exchangers, heat recovery steam generators, and even power generation units - in a tightly integrated design - to recover the flue gases which are eventually vented. With SHIP systems mostly operating on a closed HTM loop, bottoming the cold leg is crucial. In this talk, we will present different modeling results for a variety of syngas production reactions, using catalytic and chemical looping processes, and discuss some of the challenges and design considerations for off-sun chemical reactors using SHIP systems.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Concerted Electron-Ion Transport by Polyacrylonitrile Elucidated with Reactive Deep Learning Potentials

Charge transport in polymers, such as polyacrylonitrile (PAN), is crucial for electronics and energy storage. For instance, PAN can transport cations e.g., Li + , by facilitating dynamic cation-nitrile coordination in batteries. However, little is known regarding the underlying role of complex reactive polymer configurations. Herein, we develop a deep-learning potential, trained on ab initio energies and forces of nonequilibrium reactive PAN configurations, to unravel the kinetics of PAN cyclization initiated by a nucleophile (OH – dissociated from LiOH) attacking the terminal nitrile carbon. We find, based on the reaction free-energetics, rates, and charge analysis, that the nucleophile attack producing the first ring is the rate-limiting step, which subsequently triggers Li + -coupled electron transfer along the PAN backbone, causing ∼10 4 times faster sequential ring-formation of the remaining nitriles. PAN’s extended configurations, where dipolar and H-bonding interactions are minimal, enable such rapid kinetics. By validating our computational findings with IR and NMR experiments, we establish a pathway for designing reactive polymers with enhanced charge transport for energy applications.

Chahal-Crockett, Rajni [Oak Ridge National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗
NASA NTRS1962

ELECTRIC PROPULSION- A NEW TECHNOLOGY

Within the past 3 years, electric thrust devices have passed from the first exploratory feasibility experiments to the flight-engineered hardware phase. This rapid surge of development has been punctuated by equally rapid improvements in the performance figures of electrical thrust devices. The most spectacular advances were made in ion engine technology. Total energy expenditure per ion pair has gone from 35,000 ev in 1958 to about 600 ev at the present time leading to power utilization efficiencies of up to 80 per cent, depending upon the specific impulse. The percentage of the particles intercepting the accelerating and focusing electrodes has been reduced from more than 50 per cent in 1958 to less than 0.01 per cent at the present time. Great improvements in ion current per unit area have also been realized, leading to greater thrust "pressures."

ELECTRIC PROPULSION↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Lessons Learned From A Cryogenic Motor Configuration Study for Aircraft Propulsion

Cryogenic electric machines are a promising technology for multi megawatt electric aircraft drivetrains. Superconducting stators that make use of low AC loss superconducting wires are considered to be a key component for these cryogenic machines. NASA has undertaken 6-year technical challenge to address this need by designing a 5 MW superconducting motor and cryogenic drive and developing multi-MW prototypes. This poster shares the lessons learned from a completed design study that evaluated several configurations of a 5 MW cryogenic motor for this application. The lessons are drawn from a qualitative study of 16 configurations and a quantitative study of 8 down selected configurations. The quantitative study involved using a motor design code based on analytical calculations (electromagnetic, thermofluid, mechanical, and motor sizing) to determine each configuration’s Pareto front of total efficiency and total specific power. This poster builds upon preliminary results that were previously presented by (1) reporting final results based on a revised design code for each configuration, including a considerable increase in fidelity for a novel radial flux motor and (2) making a down selection of the configuration for future detailed design and demonstration and documenting the rationale for the selection.

Superconductors↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

First N 2 Profile for Venus’ Deep Lower Atmosphere

We present the first N 2 profile for Venus’ deep lower atmosphere (<15 km) and a constrained isotopic composition for cloud N 2 [1]. This work directly addresses unresolved questions for Venus using legacy observations. Prior to this work, there were no reported measurements for N 2 abundances at <15 km and the isotopic composition remained unconstrained [2]. The N 2 parameters are critical to understanding the evolution and thermal properties of the atmosphere [3-7]. Our N 2 results were obtained by re-analysis of data acquired in 1978 by the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer (LNMS) [8]. The archived mass spectra from 64.2 to 0.2 km were treated using the analytical procedures specifically developed for the LNMS [9-11]. Judicious peak fitting permitted disambiguation of (A) N 2 + and CO + at 28 u and (B) 14 N 15 N+, 13 CO + , and C 2 H 5 + at 29 u. Quality controls included comparing the (A) LNMS CO + /CO 2 + ratios to the NIST database and literature and (B) fitted counts for CO + to the expected counts of CO + calculated from C 18 O + and 13 CO + using the LNMS 16 O/ 18 O and 12 C/ 13 C ratios (obtained from CO 2 ). Our results show that N 2 is uniformly mixed across the deep lower atmosphere between ~0.2 and 15 km (2.49 ± 0.10 v%). In contrast, N 2 is non-uniformly mixed across the sub-cloud atmosphere and clouds (~15–59 km), where N 2 abundances increase by ~ 2-fold between ~15 km (2.45 ± 0.32 v%) and ~59-51 km (5.21 ± 0.18 v%). Using the cloud data, we also obtained a constrained 15 N/ 14 N ratio (2.93×10 -3 ± 0.13×10 -3 ) and δ 15 N value (-204 ± 35‰). Thus, the LNMS results [1] suggest that (A) the atmosphere is unstable at <15 km, (B) N 2 is not well-mixed >15 km, and (C) the cloud δ 15 N falls between Earth and the solar wind [12, 13]. Comparisons of the N 2 abundances and isotopic compositions for nitrogen, carbon, and oxygen to other Venus measurements will be discussed.

deep lower atmosphere↗
NASA NTRS2026

Mathematical Model of a Regenerative Fuel Cell for System Optimization

This thesis developed a system-level optimization model of a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) system for long-duration, off-world energy storage applications. Prior RFC design studies have typically been limited to reduced parameter sets and simplified constraints due to computational limitations relative to the number of relevant degrees of freedom. As a result, important nonlinear interactions between subsystems have not been fully captured. This work began to address that gap by developing a higher-fidelity, nonlinear optimization framework that incorporates a broader set of design variables and coupled constraints, enabling a multidimensional model that captures the coupled behavior of RFC subsystems and demonstrates the feasibility of applying optimization to such systems. An expanded system-level optimization approach was established that captures interactions between electrochemical performance, structural requirements, and storage design. This enabled a more comprehensive evaluation of trade-offs than conventional formulations. The model integrates four coupled subsystems: a fuel cell, an electrolyzer, reactant gas, and high-pressure storage tanks, and was formulated to accommodate a wide range of mission parameters, including operational time and required output power. It incorporates constraints on available solar array power, reactant mass balance between production and consumption, and pressure-dependent storage requirements. To enable reliable convergence, the optimization problem was reformulated to reduce dimensionality and improve numerical stability, with subsystem models organized for efficient evaluation. Problem dimensionality was reduced by consolidating lower-level design variables into higher-level representative quantities, and subsystem behavior was evaluated within the optimization loop. A multi-start initialization strategy was employed to mitigate sensitivity to local minima and improve solution quality, while nonlinear relationships were solved using robust numerical methods. The results showed that convergence was achieved across a range of required output power values. Specific energy reached a maximum at a critical mission power level, where the electrolyzer power matched the available solar input and operated near its voltage and current density limits. Beyond this point, further increases in required power resulted in less mass-efficient operation, increasing total system mass and reducing overall performance. The developed model represents an advancement in RFC system-level optimization by enabling analysis of a broader and more tightly coupled design space than previous considerations. While convergence behavior and computational cost remain challenges, the methods introduced improve solvability and allow inclusion of additional design variables with minimal loss of physical fidelity. However, the numerical results should not be interpreted as definitive design recommendations, as the model includes simplifying assumptions and omits several higher-order effects. Future work should extend this framework by incorporating additional subsystems and loss mechanisms, such as thermal management, parasitic power consumption, and reactant losses, to improve fidelity and ensure more representative design conclusions.

Electrochemistry↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Turbo-Design: Open-Source Radial Equilibrium Turbomachinery Solver: Part I - Turbines

Advances in 3D Geometrical Designs and Cooling have played a significant role in improving the efficiency of turbomachinery. However, these advancements must be effectively translated back to the modeler. Machine learning can facilitate this transition. Specifically, machine learning–based loss models can bridge the gap between 3D and 1D designs, enabling modelers not only to predict velocity triangles but also to extract additional geometric features. Currently, the design tools used at NASA have not been updated to support such integration—until now. TurboDesign is an open-source, Python-based framework that replaces TD2 (LEW-11029-1) and AXOD2 (LEW-16323-1), both of which are radial equilibrium solvers for axial turbines. The goal of this update is to enable the integration of machine learning loss models into radial equilibrium equations. Additionally, TurboDesign is designed to support radial machines. This paper presents the governing equations, the assumptions underlying the code, the integration of legacy loss models, an example of machine learning model integration, and a validation comparison with CFD. All code, tutorials, and documentation are available at: https://www.github.com/nasa/turbo-design

Radial Equilibrium↗
NASA NTRS2026

Ultrasonic Washer–Dryer System for Space Habitats: Design Upgrades and Parabolic Flight Readiness

Clothing makes up nearly 25% of all non-food supplies sent to the International Space Station (ISS). To support sustainable human missions in deep space, NASA’s Life Support and Habitation Systems Focus Area looks to advance technologies to support and improve logistics. Our team is creating a compact ultrasonic clothing washer/dryer system that bypasses traditional limitations and is suitable for space. Thermal drying uses a lot of energy to evaporate water, while our ultrasonic drying method offers a quicker, more efficient alternative. It uses piezoelectric transducers to vibrate textiles at the micron scale, mechanically removing water as cold mist rather than evaporating it. This speeds up drying and reduces energy use, no matter the fabric makeup. This paper details recent upgrades to a full-scale ultrasonic washer–dryer system, readying it for parabolic flight testing. Improvements include an enhanced human–machine interface, better packaging, and optimized performance and control. We also present extensive pre-flight ground tests conducted to ensure reliability and identify potential risks. Collaborating with P&G, we report preliminary cleaning tests using various detergents. These results lay a crucial foundation for the laundry system designed specifically for space. By cutting clothing-related payload and waste by over 97%, this technology supports long-term human exploration missions on the ISS, the Moon, Mars, and beyond.

Laundry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Tracing U.S. fuel life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions in a multi-sector dynamics model using LC-GCAM

Model-based analysis of fuel pathways is essential for informing energy and environmental policy. Two major model types are typically used: multi-sector dynamics models, which capture the broader energy-economy, such as GCAM (Global Change Analysis Model), and life cycle assessment models, such as GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation). Each has distinct strengths and limitations, and recent studies increasingly adopt hybrid approaches to harness the advantages of both. However, such integration is often time-consuming and complicated by inconsistencies in system boundaries and technology definitions. We present LC-GCAM, a new tool that enables estimation of life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions and primary energy use for any fuel pathway represented in GCAM. We apply LC-GCAM to 300 scenarios designed to explore key uncertainties affecting the life-cycle performance of future fuel options in the U.S. freight sector. To evaluate LC-GCAM, we compare its results with those from GREET for nine fuel types in a 2030 reference scenario. When input assumptions are modestly aligned, LC-GCAM and GREET estimates typically agree within 10% (absolute sum-based mean absolute percentage error). LC-GCAM offers a flexible and efficient approach to generating life-cycle metrics within an integrated modeling framework, supporting robust policy analysis across a wide range of interacting energy system uncertainties.

Wolfram, Paul↗