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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Frequency variations of the earth's obliquity and the 100-kyr ice-age cycles

Changes in the earth's climate are induced by variations in the earth's orbital parameters which modulate the seasonal distribution of solar radiation. Periodicities in the geological climate record with cycles of 100, 41, and 23 kyr have been linked with changes in obliquity, eccentricity, and precession of the equinoxes. The effect of variations of eccentricity during a 100 kyr period is weak relative to the signals from obliquity and precession variations and it may therefore be expected that the 100 kyr signal in the climate record would be of low intensity. However, this signal dominates the climate record and internal nonlinear processes within the climate system have previously been proposed to account for this fact. The author shows that variations in the frequency of the obliquity cycle can give rise to strong 100-kyr forcing of climate.

Liu, Han-Shou↗
NASA NTRS2014

Assessing the Impact of Laurentide Ice-sheet Topography on Glacial Climate

Simulations of past climates require altered boundary conditions to account for known shifts in the Earth system. For the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and subsequent deglaciation, the existence of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets caused profound changes in surface topography and albedo. While ice-sheet extent is fairly well known, numerous conflicting reconstructions of ice-sheet topography suggest that precision in this boundary condition is lacking. Here we use a high-resolution and oxygen-isotopeenabled fully coupled global circulation model (GCM) (GISS ModelE2-R), along with two different reconstructions of the Laurentide Ice Sheet (LIS) that provide maximum and minimum estimates of LIS elevation, to assess the range of climate variability in response to uncertainty in this boundary condition.We present this comparison at two equilibrium time slices: the LGM, when differences in ice-sheet topography are maximized, and 14 ka, when differences in maximum ice-sheet height are smaller but still exist. Overall, we find significant differences in the climate response to LIS topography, with the larger LIS resulting in enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and warmer surface air temperatures, particularly over northeastern Asia and the North Pacific. These up- and downstream effects are associated with differences in the development of planetary waves in the upper atmosphere, with the larger LIS resulting in a weaker trough over northeastern Asia that leads to the warmer temperatures and decreased albedo from snow and sea-ice cover. Differences between the 14 ka simulations are similar in spatial extent but smaller in magnitude, suggesting that climate is responding primarily to the larger difference in maximum LIS elevation in the LGM simulations. These results suggest that such uncertainty in ice-sheet boundary conditions alone may significantly impact the results of paleoclimate simulations and their ability to successfully simulate past climates, with implications for estimating climate sensitivity to greenhouse gas forcing utilizing past climate states.

glaciology↗
NASA NTRS2000

Measurements and Modeling of Aerosol Absorption and Single Scattering Albedo at Ambient Relative Hum

Uncertainties in the aerosol single scattering albedo have been identified to be an important source of errors in current large-scale model estimates of the direct aerosol radiative forcing of climate. A number of investigators have obtained estimates of the single scattering albedo from a variety of remote sensing and in situ measurements during aerosol field experiments. During the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX, 1996) for example, estimates of the aerosol single scattering albedo were obtained (1) as a best-fit parameter in comparing radiative flux changes measured by airborne pyranometer to those computed from independently measured aerosol properties; (2) from estimates of the aerosol complex index of refraction derived using a combination of airborne sunphotometer, lidar backscatter and in situ size distribution measurements; and (3) from airborne measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption using nephelometers and absorption photometers. In this paper, we briefly compare the results of the latter two methods for two TARFOX case studies, since those techniques provide height-resolved information about the aerosol single scattering albedo. Estimates of the aerosol single scattering albedo from nephelometer and absorption photometer measurements require knowledge of the scattering and absorption humidification (i.e., the increase in these properties in response to an increase in ambient relative humidity), since both measurements are usually carried out at a relative humidity different from the ambient atmosphere. In principle, the scattering humidification factor can be measured, but there is currently no technique widely available to measure the absorption of an aerosol sample as a function of relative humidity. Frequently, for lack of better knowledge, the absorption humidification is assumed to be unity (meaning that there is no change in aerosol absorption due to an increase in ambient relative humidity). This assumption then enters the estimate of the single scattering albedo at ambient relative humidity. To investigate the validity of this assumption we have carried out modeling studies of the absorption humidification factor, assuming that the aerosols contain an insoluble soot core and a coating which determines its hygroscopic growth behavior. The aerosol optical properties are then computed on the basis of the shell/core particle morphology using a Mie-code for concentric shells. From basic physical principles, it is conceivable that aerosol absorption increases when an atmospheric aerosol particle collects a non-absorbing shell, since the soot core is then exposed to an increased (focused) electric field strength. Indeed, our preliminary modeling studies show that the absorption of an atmospheric aerosol particle composed of a soot core and an aqueous sulfuric acid shell may increase by a factor of 50% due to a change in ambient relative humidity from 30 to 95%. We will show how this increased absorption is a function of the initial particle size and soot mass fraction.

Redemann, J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program May 2003 Intensive Operations Period Examining Aerosol Properties and Radiative Influences: Preface to Special Section

Atmospheric aerosols influence climate by scattering and absorbing radiation in clear air (direct effects) and by serving as cloud condensation nuclei, modifying the microphysical properties of clouds, influencing radiation and precipitation development (indirect effects). Much of present uncertainty in forcing of climate change is due to uncertainty in the relations between aerosol microphysical and optical properties and their radiative influences (direct effects) and between microphysical properties and their ability to serve as cloud condensation nuclei at given supersaturations (indirect effects). This paper introduces a special section that reports on a field campaign conducted at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement site in North Central Oklahoma in May, 2003, examining these relations using in situ airborne measurements and surface-, airborne-, and space-based remote sensing.

Ferrare, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2001

Retrieval of Black Carbon Absorption from Proposed Satellite Measurements Over the Ocean Glint

Haze and air pollution includes many chemicals that together form small particles suspended in the air called aerosols. One of the main ingredients found to affect climate and human health is Black Carbon. Black particles emitted from engines that do not burn the fuel completely, e.g. old trucks. Black carbon absorption of sunlight emerges as one of the key components of man-made forcing of climate. However, global characterization of black carbon emissions, distribution and pathways in which it can affect the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the atmosphere is very uncertain. A new method is proposed to measure sunlight absorption by fine aerosol particles containing black carbon over the ocean glint from a satellite mission designed for this purpose. The satellite will scan the same spot over the ocean in the glint plane and a plane 40 degrees off-glint a minute apart, collecting measurements of the reflected light across the solar spectrum. First the dark ocean off the glint is used to derive aerosol properties. Then the black carbon absorption is derived prop the attenuation of the bright glint by the aerosol layer. Such measurements if realized in a proposed future mission - COBRA are expected to produce global monthly climatology of black carbon absorption with high accuracy (110 to 15%) that can show their effect on climate.

Kaufman, Y. J.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Aerosol Remote Sensing from Space - Where We Stand, Where We're Heading

The MISR and MODIS instruments aboard the NASA Earth Observing System's Terra Satellite have been collecting data containing information about the state of Earth's atmosphere and surface for over twelve years. Among the retrieved quantities are the amount and type of wildfire smoke, desert dust, volcanic effluent, urban and industrial pollution particles, and other aerosols. Data from these instruments have been used to develop a global, monthly climatology of aerosol amount that is widely used as a constraint on climate models, including those used for the 2007 IPCC assessment report. However, the broad scientific challenges of understanding aerosol impacts on climate and health place different, and very exacting demands on our measurement capabilities. And these data sets, though much more advanced in many respects than previous aerosol data records, are imperfect. The next frontier in assessing aerosol radiative forcing of climate is aerosol type, and in particular, the absorption properties of major aerosol air masses. In this presentation, I will summarize current understanding of MISR and MODIS aerosol product strengths and limitations, discuss how they relate to the bigger aerosol science questions we must address, and give my view of the way forward.

Kahn, Ralph↗
NASA NTRS2019

Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity Estimated by Equilibrating Climate Models

The methods to quantify equilibrium climate sensitivity are still debated. We collect millennial length simulations of coupled climate models and show that the global mean equilibrium warming is higher than those obtained using extrapolation methods from shorter simulations. Specifically, 27 simulations with 15 climate models forced with a range of CO2 concentrations show a median 17% larger equilibrium warming than estimated from the first 150 years of the simulations. The spatial patterns of radiative feedbacks change continuously, in most regions reducing their tendency to stabilizing the climate. In the equatorial Pacific, however, feedbacks become more stabilizing with time. The global feedback evolution is initially dominated by the tropics, with eventual substantial contributions from the midlatitudes. Time dependent feedbacks underscore the need of a measure of climate sensitivity that accounts for the degree of equilibration, so that models, observations, and paleo proxies can be adequately compared and aggregated to estimate future warming.

Maria Rugenstein↗
NASA NTRS1999

Assessed Using Satellite Data and Ground Based Sun/Sky Radiometers

The short aerosol lifetime and the variety of sources and atmospheric processes that affect the aerosol concentration and properties, generate a very heterogeneous aerosol field. Satellite data are needed to assess the daily global distribution of aerosol loading, properties and radiative forcing of climate. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument launched in July 1999 measures the aerosol properties and backscattered radiation in 7 spectral channels across the solar channel with spatial resolution of 500 m. Novel inversion techniques are used to derive the aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere in these 7 spectral bands with even higher accuracy than the derivation of the aerosol loading or microphysical properties. But satellites cannot sense the aerosol attenuation of radiation reaching the Earth surface. A network of 100 sun/sky radiometers, members of the AErosol RObotic NEtwork (AERONET) is used to assess, simultaneously, the radiative forcing of aerosol at the surface level. The relevance of MODIS and AERONET to assess the global aerosol forcing, and the inversion techniques will be presented and discussed.

Kaufman, Yoram J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Evaluation of preindustrial to present-day black carbon and its albedo forcing from Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP)

As part of the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP), we evaluate the historical black carbon (BC) aerosols simulated by 8 ACCMIP models against observations including 12 ice core records, long-term surface mass concentrations, and recent Arctic BC snowpack measurements. We also estimate BC albedo forcing by performing additional simulations using offline models with prescribed meteorology from 1996-2000. We evaluate the vertical profile of BC snow concentrations from these offline simulations using the recent BC snowpack measurements. Despite using the same BC emissions, the global BC burden differs by approximately a factor of 3 among models due to differences in aerosol removal parameterizations and simulated meteorology: 34 Gg to 103 Gg in 1850 and 82 Gg to 315 Gg in 2000. However, the global BC burden from preindustrial to present-day increases by 2.5-3 times with little variation among models, roughly matching the 2.5-fold increase in total BC emissions during the same period.We find a large divergence among models at both Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) high latitude regions for BC burden and at SH high latitude regions for deposition fluxes. The ACCMIP simulations match the observed BC surface mass concentrations well in Europe and North America except at Ispra. However, the models fail to predict the Arctic BC seasonality due to severe underestimations during winter and spring. The simulated vertically resolved BC snow concentrations are, on average, within a factor of 2-3 of the BC snowpack measurements except for Greenland and the Arctic Ocean. For the ice core evaluation, models tend to adequately capture both the observed temporal trends and the magnitudes at Greenland sites. However, models fail to predict the decreasing trend of BC depositions/ice core concentrations from the 1950s to the 1970s in most Tibetan Plateau ice cores. The distinct temporal trend at the Tibetan Plateau ice cores indicates a strong influence from Western Europe, but the modeled BC increases in that period are consistent with the emission changes in Eastern Europe, the Middle East, South and East Asia. At the Alps site, the simulated BC suggests a strong influence from Europe, which agrees with the Alps ice core observations. At Zuoqiupu on the Tibetan Plateau, models successfully simulate the higher BC concentrations observed during the non-monsoon season compared to the monsoon season but overpredict BC in both seasons. Despite a large divergence in BC deposition at two Antarctic ice core sites, some models with a BC lifetime of less than 7 days are able to capture the observed concentrations. In 2000 relative to 1850, globally and annually averaged BC surface albedo forcing from the offline simulations ranges from 0.014 to 0.019Wm−2 among the ACCMIP models. Comparing offline and online BC albedo forcings computed by some of the same models, we find that the global annual mean can vary by up to a factor of two because of different aerosol models or different BC-snow parameterizations and snow cover. The spatial distributions of the offline BC albedo forcing in 2000 show especially high BC forcing (i.e., over 0.1W/sq. m) over Manchuria, Karakoram, and most of the Former USSR. Models predict the highest global annual mean BC forcing in 1980 rather than 2000, mostly driven by the high fossil fuel and biofuel emissions in the Former USSR in 1980.

snow cover↗
DOE OSTI2022

Atmospheric Brown Carbon on the Tibetan Plateau: Regional Differences in Chemical Composition and Light Absorption Properties

In this work, fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) filter samples were collected from two high-altitude remote sites located in the southern (QOMS) and northern (WLG) regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) to explore the regional differences in brown carbon (BrC) properties. Chemical differences in BrC composition representative of these two areas were inferred from molecular-level analysis of the PM 2.5 samples using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled with photodiode array and high-resolution mass spectrometry detectors. The results show that more polar BrC chromophores were abundant in QOMS samples, while contributions from polar and less polar chromophores were comparable in WLG samples. A higher mass absorption coefficient of BrC was observed at QOMS than at WLG. Strong BrC chromophores in QOMS samples were identified as oxygenated aromatics and nitrophenol compounds, while organosulfate compounds were found in the WLG sample. The results of this study indicate regional differences in BrC chromophores and provide insights into their sources and chemical processes, which should be considered for predictive understanding and modeling of the radiative forcing of aerosol in the TP area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Ten-Year Global Record of Absorbing Aerosols Above Clouds from OMI's Near-UV Observations

Aerosol-cloud interaction continues to be one of the leading uncertain components of climate models, primarily due to the lack of an adequate knowledge of the complex microphysical and radiative processes associated with the aerosol-cloud system. The situations when aerosols and clouds are found in the same atmospheric column, for instance, when light-absorbing aerosols such as biomass burning generated carbonaceous particles or wind-blown dust overlay low-level cloud decks, are commonly found over several regional of the world. Contrary to the cloud-free scenario over dark surface, for which aerosols are known to produce a net cooling effect (negative radiative forcing) on climate, the overlapping situation of absorbing aerosols over cloud can potentially exert a significant level of atmospheric absorption and produces a positive radiative forcing at top-of-atmosphere. The magnitude of direct radiative effects of aerosols above cloud depends directly on the aerosol loading, microphysical-optical properties of the aerosol layer and the underlying cloud deck, and geometric cloud fraction. We help in addressing this problem by introducing a novel product of optical depth of absorbing aerosols above clouds retrieved from near-UV observations made by the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on board NASA's Aura platform. The presence of absorbing aerosols above cloud reduces the upwelling radiation reflected by cloud and produces a strong 'color ratio' effect in the near-UV region, which can be unambiguously detected in the OMI measurements. Physically based on this effect, the OMACA algorithm retrieves the optical depths of aerosols and clouds simultaneously under a prescribed state of atmosphere. The algorithm architecture and results from a ten-year global record including global climatology of frequency of occurrence and above-cloud aerosol optical depth, and a discussion on related future field campaigns are presented.

Ozone Monitoring Instrument↗
NASA NTRS1982

Sensitivity of the boundary layer energy fluxes to forcing parameters in a simple climate model

Winter and summer surface temperatures and time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are calculated by utilizing the Saltzman-Ashe parameterization for boundary layer fluxes in a two-level static model. The results are found to agree with observed patterns. Within the framework of this simple model, sensitivity analyses of the time-averaged boundary layer energy fluxes are conducted. Based on these results some of the forcing parameters (such as the subsurface temperature, cloud cover, surface albedo, etc.) are arranged in a hierarchical order of importance. A generalized method of sensitivity analysis is also suggested.

Rao, M. S.↗
NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peatland fires in Alaska will double by the end of the century

During recent summers, warm and dry conditions have increased the occurrence of wildfires and potentially peat-fires across Alaska. Limitations in resolving the fine-scale distribution of peatlands and climate observations have constrained our ability to accurately predict peat-fire dynamics. Using a new high-resolution peatland map of Alaska, we evaluated the climate and environmental controls of past and future peat-fire activity. Ensemble machine learning models identified reduced soil moisture, higher temperatures, and evapotranspiration as key predictors of annual total burned peatland area (tenfold CV R 2 = 0.62, RMSE = 221.1 km 2 ). By the end of the twenty-first century, models forced with climate datasets from representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 emission scenarios project a statewide doubling of burned peatlands (increasing 61–121%), with regional increases ranging from 25–165% in polar, 61–95% in boreal, and 102–106% in maritime ecoregions. These projections indicate that wildfires will progressively encroach further into organic-rich moist and wet peaty soils, potentially amplifying soil carbon release across Alaska.

climate-change ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Stratospheric aerosol forcing for CMIP7 – Part 1: optical properties for pre-industrial, historical, and scenario simulations

Stratospheric aerosols, most of which originate from explosive volcanic sulfur emissions into the stratosphere, are a key natural driver of climate variability. They are thus a forcing provided by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Climate Forcings Task Team to climate modelling groups participating in phase 7 of CMIP. For the historical period, we provide two datasets covering 1750–2023: (i) a volcanic upper tropospheric-stratospheric sulfur emission dataset, documented in a companion paper; and (ii) a stratospheric sulfate aerosol optical property dataset, documented in this paper. For the satellite era (from 1979 onwards), stratospheric aerosol optical properties are derived from the Global Space-based Stratospheric Aerosol Climatology (GloSSAC) dataset. For the pre-satellite era (1750–1978), optical properties are derived from our volcanic SO 2 emission dataset using a new version of the reduced-complexity volcanic aerosol model Easy Volcanic Aerosol (Height) (EVA_H v2). A background, non-volcanic stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1998–2001 period with a trend over 1850–1978 accounting for increasing anthropogenic aerosols. A monthly stratospheric aerosol climatology is derived from the 1850–2021 average for both pre-industrial and scenario (future) simulations, with a 9-year ramp over 2022–2030 for scenario simulations to ensure a smooth transition from the historical period. CMIP7 simulations should use version 2.2.1 of our pre-industrial and historical datasets, and version 2.2.2 of our scenario dataset. Our methodology to produce historical aerosol optical properties significantly differs from CMIP6 for the pre-satellite era, and the resulting forcings in turn largely differ. In particular, the CMIP6 dataset was mostly based on the sparse and uncertain pyrheliometer record, which resulted in strongly underrepresented emissions from small-to-moderate magnitude eruptions. The resulting bias is addressed in CMIP7, which is entirely emission-derived in the pre-satellite era and uses more recent ice-core-based volcanic sulfur emission inventories than CMIP6. Our approach results in an overall larger volcanic aerosol forcing for CMIP7, with the 1850–2014 mean mid-visible global mean stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in CMIP7 (0.0138) being 29 % higher than in CMIP6 (0.0107). The pre-industrial mean of the same variable is 26 % higher in CMIP7 (0.0135, derived from the historical 1850–2021) than CMIP6 (0.0107, derived from the historical 1850–2014 mean). Using a reduced-complexity climate model, we simulate a global mean surface temperature that is 0.07 °C colder for 1850–1900 when using the CMIP7 dataset instead of CMIP6, whereas 2000–2014 is 0.03 °C warmer in CMIP7. Our dataset also exhibits lower forcing for 1960–1980, resulting in temperatures 0.06 °C warmer when averaged over 1960–1990, a period for which CMIP6 climate models exhibit a cold bias. Given the large uncertainties characterizing the dataset, in particular for the pre-satellite era, we advise against treating the CMIP7 or CMIP6 dataset as uniquely superior for any specific year and highlight the need for further evaluation. We conclude the study by discussing sources of uncertainty for the dataset, future research avenues to improve it, as well as requirements to operationalize the production of the dataset, i.e. extend it and update it on an annual basis instead of every 5–7 years following CMIP cycles.

Aubry, Thomas J. [Univ. of Exeter, Devon (United K↗
NASA NTRS2024

Scenario Setup and Forcing Data for Impact Model Evaluation and Impact Attribution Within the Third Round of the Inter-Sectoral Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a)

This paper describes the rationale and the protocol of the first component of the third simulation round of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3a, http://www.isimip.org, last access: 2 November 2023) and the associated set of climate-related and direct human forcing data (CRF and DHF, respectively). The observation-based climate-related forcings for the first time include high-resolution observational climate forcings derived by orographic downscaling, monthly to hourly coastal water levels, and wind fields associated with historical tropical cyclones. The DHFs include land use patterns, population densities, information about water and agricultural management, and fishing intensities. The ISIMIP3a impact model simulations driven by these observation-based climate-related and direct human forcings are designed to test to what degree the impact models can explain observed changes in natural and human systems. In a second set of ISIMIP3a experiments the participating impact models are forced by the same DHFs but a counterfactual set of atmospheric forcings and coastal water levels where observed trends have been removed. These experiments are designed to allow for the attribution of observed changes in natural, human, and managed systems to climate change, rising CH 4 and CO 2 concentrations, and sea level rise according to the definition of the Working Group II contribution to the IPCC AR6.

Inter Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Projec↗
DOE OSTI2020

A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models

This dataset, produced through the Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2, represents the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st Century global wind-wave climate projections available (henceforth COWCLIP2.0). COWCLIP2.0 comprises general and extreme statistics of significant wave height (H S ), mean wave period (T m ), and mean wave direction (θ m ) computed over time-slices 1979–2004 and 2081–2100, at different frequency resolutions (monthly, seasonally and annually). The full ensemble comprising 155 global wave climate simulations is obtained from ten CMIP5-based state-of-the-art wave climate studies and provides data derived from alternative wind-wave downscaling methods, and different climate-model forcing and future emissions scenarios. The data has been produced, and processed, under a specific framework for consistency and quality, and follows CMIP5 Data Reference Syntax, Directory structures, and Metadata requirements. Technical comparison of model skill against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height has been undertaken at global and regional scales. This new dataset provides support for future broad scale coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments and climate adaptation studies in many offshore and coastal engineering applications.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability of Clouds Over a Solar Cycle

One of the most controversial aspects of climate studies is the debate over the natural and anthropogenic causes of climate change. Historical data strongly suggest that the Little Ice Age (from 1550 to 1850 AD when the mean temperature was colder by about 1 C) was most likely caused by variability of the sun and not greenhouse molecules (e.g., CO2). However, the known variability in solar irradiance and modulation of cosmic rays provides too little energy, by many orders of magnitude, to lead to climate changes in the troposphere. The conjecture is that there is a 'trigger mechanism'. This idea may now be subjected to a quantitative test using recent global datasets. Using the best available modern cloud data from International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP), Svensmark and Friis-Christensen found a correlation of a large variation (3-4%) in global cloud cover with the solar cycle. The work has been extended by Svensmark and Marsh and Svensmark. The implied forcing on climate is an order of magnitude greater than any previous claims. Are clouds the long sought trigger mechanism? This discovery is potentially so important that it should be corroborated by an independent database, and, furthermore, it must be shown that alternative explanations (i.e., El Nino) can be ruled out. We used the ISCCP data in conjunction with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data to carry out in in depth study of the cloud trigger mechanism.

Yung, Yuk L.↗