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Who is participating in residential energy efficiency programs? Exploring demographic and other household characteristics of participants in utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs
In addition to benefiting all customers by reducing the total electric system cost, utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs provide direct benefits to the participants. Understanding the current demographic and household characteristics of participants will help assess the extent of inequities in program participation and figure out what characteristics need to be targeted to achieve equitable outcomes. This report describes how 11 demographic and household characteristics including income, race and ethnicity, and education affect participation in residential utility customer-funded energy efficiency programs. It compiles previous work on this topic and adds new primary analysis of four datasets with different levels of detail from the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), two New England states, and a Midwestern state.
Optimal operation of multi-plant steam district heating systems for enhanced efficiency and sustainability
Despite their crucial role in supplying heat and power to universities, industries, and healthcare facilities, many steam-based district heating systems rely on outdated control methods. Among these, multi-central plant districts are particularly challenging due to the complexities of coordinating multiple plants, optimizing load distributions, and managing system downtime. In response, new operational strategies are developed to enhance the efficiency and sustainability of steam districts while utilizing existing resources. These strategies include reducing plant operational pressure without compromising the reliable supply to buildings and optimizing load allocation across multiple plants. The load allocation considers boiler part-load efficiency, runtime, network losses, and building pressure set points, and is compared with traditional multi-boiler controls. To support this exploration, new dynamic Modelica models are developed. In addition, methods to reduce modeling complexities are incorporated, enhancing their suitability for practical applications. A holistic district-wide analysis using a real university case study demonstrates a 4.7% fuel savings by lowering boiler operational pressure from 900 kPa to 600 kPa, along with a 13.3% reduction in condensation losses across the distribution network. Furthermore, the load allocation approach results in a 13.1% reduction in fuel consumption during peak winter periods and 15.3% during shoulder periods, with corresponding decreases in carbon emissions and fuel costs. This approach can also save maintenance costs by reducing the boiler runtime by 49.6%. In conclusion, this research underscores the benefits of retrofitting aging steam district heating systems, offering immediate operational improvements by enhancing efficiency, meeting regulatory compliance, and extending infrastructure lifespans while delaying costly overhauls.
Multicarrier Energy Systems: Shaping Our Energy Future
Multicarrier energy systems (MCESs) are characterized by strong coordination in operation and planning across multiple energy vectors and/or sectors to deliver reliable, cost-effective energy services to end users/customers with minimal impact on the environment. They have efficiency and flexibility benefits and are deployed in large and small scales on the supply and demand sides and at the network level but are more complex to control and manage. Here, MCESs are reviewed in the context of future low carbon energy systems based on electrification and very high variable renewable energy penetrations. Fully exploiting these systems requires some cost reductions, more sophisticated operations enabled by standardized communications and control capabilities detailed planning paradigms, and addressing their corresponding economic challenges. All these point toward the direction of analysis, markets, and technology research and development coupled with better policy and regulatory frameworks. One futuristic vision of a very low carbon energy system is proposed that illustrates potential pathways to an MCES-dominated energy future.
LLNS Request for Variance from 10 CFR 851 for Construction of LLNL Digital Infrastructure Capabilities Expansion Project
Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC (LLNS) requests variance to 10 CFR 851 (the Rule) for the construction of the Digital Infrastructure Capabilities Expansion (DICE) project. The request isin continued support of the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) “pilot” to streamline the delivery of commercial-like line-item construction projects under $50 million. This pilot is aligned with the approved NA-50 safety approach. Experience gained in the construction of the new Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Emergency Operations Facility (EOC) under the variance granted in June 2020 is very encouraging. While detailed analysis will be forthcoming after that project is completed, there are strong indicators that a benefit has been realized by the subcontractors executing the work. The variance has permitted local/regional construction businesses contracted to Management & Operation contractor operated facilities and lower tier subcontractors to bid, operate, execute, and comply with safety and health standards they utilize in their business outside of the Department of Energy (DOE) Complex. While compliance to standards that are as safe and healthful as those in 10 CFR 851: confusion, additional cost, and inefficiencies associated with the burden of compliance to an unfamiliar regulatory spectrum has been avoided. Safety and health performance on the EOC construction project including the number of inspection and surveillance issues is comparable to other subcontractors and projects at LLNL executed under 10 CFR 851.
Structural, Thermal, and Mechanical Characterization of a Thermally Conductive Polymer Composite for Heat Exchanger Applications
Polymer composites are being considered for numerous thermal applications because of their inherent benefits, such as light weight, corrosion resistance, and reduced cost. In this work, the microstructural, thermal, and mechanical properties of a 3D printed polymer composite with high thermal conductivity are examined using multiple characterization techniques. Infrared spectroscopy and X-ray diffraction reveal that the composite contains a polyphenylene sulfide matrix with graphitic fillers, which is responsible for the high thermal conductivity. Furthermore, differential scanning calorimetry determines that the glass transition and melting point of the composite are 87.6 °C and 285.6 °C, respectively. Thermogravimetric analysis reveals that the composite is thermally stable up to ~400 °C. Creep tests are performed at different isotherms to evaluate the long-term performance of the composite. The creep result indicates that the composite can maintain mechanical integrity when used below its glass transition temperature. Nanoindentation tests reveal that modulus and hardness of the composite is not significantly influenced by heating or creep conditions. These findings indicate that the composite is potentially suitable for heat exchanger applications.
Understanding and Modeling Pooled Rideshare Acceptance: Influential Factors, Preferred User Experiences, and Implications
This dissertation explores factors influencing pooled rideshare (PR) adoption to provide actionable insights for transportation network companies (TNCs) and policymakers. PR allows travelers to share rides with unknown passengers, offering benefits such as cost reduction and congestion relief. However, adoption remains limited due to safety concerns, privacy issues, and trust in rideshare platforms. A national U.S. survey with 5,385 respondents examined transportation preferences and barriers to PR adoption. Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses identified five key factors influencing PR consideration—safety, service experience, privacy, traffic/environment, and time/cost. Second factor analyses examined ways to optimize PR experiences, revealing four factors—comfort/ease of use, convenience, vehicle technology/accessibility, and passenger safety. Privacy concerns, for instance, using regression analysis, were found to reduce the likelihood of PR adoption by 77%, and convenience had the potential to increase it by 156%. The Pooled Rideshare Acceptance Model (PRAM), based on the Technology Acceptance Model, assessed the impact of these factors using the Structural Equation Model (SEM). Privacy, safety, trust, and convenience had a large effect (Cohen's f2 > 0.35) on PR acceptance, while multigroup analyses (PRAMMA) explored 16 demographic variables such as gender, generation, and income, emphasizing the need for tailored strategies. Based on all the statistical analysis and workshops using descriptive statistics, 95 actionable recommendations were made from the riders' perspective. Findings highlight the importance of customized services, user experience improvements, and policy interventions to enhance PR adoption. This dissertation provides a roadmap for future research and policy development, ensuring evidence-based, practical strategies to improve PR services in the U.S. and beyond.
Enabling residential heating decarbonization through hydronic low-temperature thermal distribution using forced-air assistive devices
Space heating represents approximately one-tenth of the United States’ energy use and has a breadth of potential for emission reduction. An element of space heating, hydronic heat distribution methods, use water supply temperatures up to 82.2 °C (180 °F). However, this operating temperature can be incompatible with high-efficiency heat generation systems, which typically provide heating temperatures of up to 60 °C (140 °F). In this work, a low-cost retrofit solution is developed using experimentally validated computational tools by incorporating an airflow distributor that preferentially directs the airflow from a fan to enhance heat transfer over the finned-tube heat exchanger found in conventional baseboards. The same heat output of traditional baseboard heat distribution systems operating at higher water supply temperatures (71.1 – 82.2 °C) can also be achieved at lower temperatures (≤60 °C). Specifically, results indicate that the technology can produce more than a 46.7% improvement in the heat transfer output at temperatures as low as 60 °C (140 °F), effectively matching the same output range achieved by 71.1 – 82.2 °C (160–180 °F) water supply temperatures. An important benefit of this solution is that it utilizes the existing infrastructure as opposed to requiring the replacement of the entire distribution system. Additionally, this technology enables existing building infrastructure to be coupled with newer, high-efficiency heating systems such as condensing boilers, solar-thermal systems, and geothermal/air-to-water heat pumps that may produce lower water supply temperatures (60 °C). A geospatially resolved techno-economic and environmental analysis is completed and presented to further understand the equivalent carbon footprint of enabling higher efficiency heat generation systems with the improved efficiency heat distribution system disclosed. Using 2021 grid-average emission factors, an emission reduction of up to a 67.5% decrease (2658 kgCO 2 /yr) for a single-family home, depending on state and climate region, could be realized by replacing a traditional natural gas-fired boiler with an air-to-water heat pump coupled to the same high-temperature heat distribution system along with the low-cost retrofit solution. A complete CO 2 emission reduction of 6688 kgCO 2 /yr, depending on state and climate region, could be realized if all electricity is further renewably sourced. Thus, this study provides a possible pathway towards enabling the reduction of operational emissions in space heating.
Initial Systems-Level Assessment of a Distributed Direct Air Capture System Concept at the Urban-scale (UrbanDAC)
Direct Air Capture (DAC) systems offer a promising solution for mitigating global carbon emissions by directly removing ambient carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from the atmosphere. While future DAC facilities are typically envisioned as being large and centralized, small-scale systems present an alternative approach with advantages such as adaptability and lower uptake costs. By harnessing waste heat from the built environment, such small-scale systems become distributed DAC at the urban scale (UrbanDAC) that benefit from existing urban infrastructure, while presenting challenges such as identifying eligible buildings and sustainable transportation and storage of captured CO 2 . Collaborating with engineering experts and developers of a DAC unit that can be co-located with cooling towers of existing commercial buildings, this study explores the systems-level implications of UrbanDAC using a geographically explicit multi-decision criteria analysis (MCDA) framework. By considering various infrastructure and environmental factors, network analysis and geospatial techniques are applied to identify optimal building candidates for distributed DAC units within Knoxville, Tennessee, USA, as a representative mid-size city. The selected outputs of the MCDA are used to explore a scenario that assumes a CO 2 collection and transport route for 20 high-ranking candidate buildings; total carbon emissions, EV energy consumption, and net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) are then calculated. Results suggest that the spatial variation of optimal candidates between thriving commercial areas is an important planning consideration. Examining the feasibility of UrbanDAC at an urban planning level provides valuable insights into the barriers and enabling conditions for CDR in cities, where the vast majority of CO 2 emissions are produced, and supports decision-making processes for the implementation of decarbonization initiatives. Through this initial assessment, this research acts as a pilot study for an emerging technology that highlights the importance of distributed DAC technologies in addressing climate change and emphasizes the need for further research and exploration in this domain.
Making Data-Driven Policy Decisions for the Nation’s First Building Energy Performance Standards
Nearly every major U.S. city has committed itself to ambitious climate action goals – for Washington, DC this means a 50 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by 2032 and carbon neutrality by 2050. In support of these goals, Washington, DC has passed one of the most aggressive and practical climate action bills in the nation—with the Clean Energy DC Omnibus Act, DC became the first city in the U.S. to adopt energy performance standards for existing buildings. DC’s Building Energy Performance Standards (BEPS) require energy efficiency improvements for all commercial and multifamily buildings that do not meet a sector-specific minimum ENERGY STAR score or equivalent metric, with iterative compliance cycles every five years that will accelerate the pace of whole building retrofits. This paper explores this revolutionary policy framework and uses two data analysis projects that DC conducted to evaluate the potential impact of the BEPS and move towards carbon neutrality. First, we analyze the potential energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions, as well as potential cost impacts, from the implementation of a BEPS policy in DC We then examine the role of BEPS in a carbon neutrality strategy, how BEPS savings iterate over time, and what additional existing building improvements will be driven by the gravitational pull of new building codes on median performance. The paper highlights the benefits and limitations of such data-driven approaches to support policy decisions. Finally, we will review ongoing BEPS implementation, including expected policy directions, critical supportive programs, and lessons learned to date.
Task 2.1: Adsorption-Based ISPR for BETO-Relevant Bioproducts
This task focuses on the development of adsorption-based in situ product recovery (ISPR) integrated with simulated moving bed chromatography for the recovery and purification of carboxylate products that are relevant to BETO. ISPR has been pursued previously in the Separations Consortium to recover carboxylic acids near or below their pKa values with liquid-liquid extraction coupled to downstream distillation. However, there are many acid products in the BETO portfolio that require neutralization well above their pKa values wherein ISPR could still be a major benefit to the bioprocess performance, including muconic acid, beta-ketoadipic acid, 3-hydroxypropionic acid, itaconic acid, butyric acid, and others. In this task, we are combining dynamic filtration with a rotating ceramic disk, resin capacity measurements, tailored resin synthesis, and simulated moving bed chromatography into an ISPR system that can be used to recover BETO-relevant carboxylates from bioreactor cultivations. We are working across process scales and using computational modeling where applicable alongside techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment to understand major cost, energy, and GHG emissions drivers. The impact of this project will be a bench-scale integrated approach to recover carboxylate products in situ, which will reduce the waste generation from biological carboxylate production processes and improve the productivities of biological systems.
An assessment of China’s methane mitigation potential and costs and uncertainties through 2060
Abstract China, the world’s largest methane emitter, is increasingly focused on methane mitigation in support of its climate goals, but gaps exist in the understanding of key methane sources, as well as mitigation opportunities and their associated uncertainties. We use a bottom-up modeling approach with updated methane emission projections and abatement cost analysis to account for additional sources, uncertainties, and mitigation measures in China’s energy and agricultural sectors. Here we show the significant cost-effective potential for reducing methane emissions in China by 2030, with 660 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent possible with average negative abatement costs of US$6.40 per tonne CO 2 e. Most of this potential exists in the energy sector, particularly coal mining, but the greater potential will shift towards agriculture by 2060. Aquaculture and biochar applications in rice cultivation have net economic benefits but need greater support for deployment, while new mitigation measures will be needed for remaining emissions from enteric fermentation, rice cultivation, and wastewater.
A call to standardize metrics for monitoring baleen whales near marine construction activities
Effective monitoring is necessary to protect marine mammal species during the construction of offshore infrastructure. The tools for detecting or monitoring marine mammals span traditional (e.g., visual observers, optical cameras), to newer (e.g., passive acoustic monitoring, infrared cameras, tags), and emerging (e.g., satellite imagery, environmental DNA, dimethyl sulfide concentration) technologies. Some are better suited for use during offshore development; however, peer-reviewed literature does not typically evaluate and report on the performance of these various technologies. We define a minimum set of metrics related to efficacy (i.e., confusion matrix, precision and recall, probability of missed mitigation), detection range (i.e., maximum and reliable detection range, spatial resolution), and data delivery (i.e., detection latency, system reliability, temporal resolution) that we recommend are needed to assess the utility of monitoring technologies for this purpose. Following a literature review of relevant studies, we highlight which publications reported these metrics and used multiple technologies to compare relative performance. We also emphasize the benefits of multi-modal approaches and recommend performance assessments through modeling or large-scale collaborative field testing. These metrics will standardize data collection, reporting, and analysis; promote consistent and comparable results; and foster collaboration among developers, regulatory agencies, and scientists. This may lead to the co-development of technology that achieves multiple goals, has greater application, and can answer research questions while collecting data to fulfill permitting requirements. These metrics may also inform decisions on what systems regulatory agencies might consider using and reduce monitoring costs, which is critical to support the marine sector's rapid growth alongside marine mammal conservation.
Large-Scale Simulation of Regional Demand Flexibility Implementation and Customer Economic Impact
The Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study conducted a large-scale simulation of over 60,000 customers in a region the size of Texas to demonstrate the effective coordination of distributed energy resources (DERs) in commercial and residential buildings. The integrated simulation included both the bulk (wholesale generation and transmission) and distribution systems. The DERs (including batteries, electric vehicles, air conditioning, and water heaters) participated in a transactive energy retail market that was integrated into an existing competitive wholesale market. The engineering and economic performance of the resulting demand flexibility was evaluated over annual simulations for both moderate and high renewable generation scenarios. A detailed parametric cost model was developed to enable detailed economic analysis of key stakeholders. In addition, fixed and dynamic customer tariffs were designed and applied to the customer population. This allowed the impact on annual customer bills to be analyzed for various building types (residential versus commercial; single- versus multi-family). This paper presents results showing the relative flexibility of batteries, electric vehicles, and building loads throughout the year and under different renewable scenarios. This feeds a detailed breakdown of the impact this flexibility has on the operating costs of the grid and the resulting net economic benefit. Finally, the study showed that practically all customer classes (including non-participating customers) save money under the proposed demand flexibility scheme. The study found overall net annual economic savings of $3.3-5.0B for a region the size of Texas equating to average customer bill savings of 10-16%.
Ambient-Pressure Chemical Recycling of Thermoset Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymers via Low-Temperature Solvolysis: Techno-Economic and Life-Cycle Assessment
Carbon fiber-reinforced polymer (CFRP) waste is rapidly accumulating, with global volumes projected to exceed 500,000 tons annually by 2050. Virgin carbon fiber production is extremely energy- and cost-intensive, and growing demand has intensified supply-chain vulnerabilities associated with precursor availability and reliance on critical materials. Scalable recycling technologies therefore offer not only environmental benefits but also opportunities to reduce material costs and strengthen domestic composite supply chains. This study introduces an efficient, mild chemical recycling method for epoxy-amine CFRPs, utilizing acetic acid (80 wt%) and zinc acetate (1 wt%) at atmospheric pressure and low temperature (~110 °C). The solvolysis process preserves residual resin (~40%) on recycled carbon fibers (rCF), enhancing interfacial bonding in remanufactured composite materials. Recycled fibers retain ~90% of their mechanical properties, and recovered oligomers show potential for reuse in epoxy formulations, supporting material circularity. Techno-economic analysis (TEA) and life-cycle assessment (LCA) confirm the scalability and sustainability of this process.
Grid Value Analysis of Geothermal Systems for End-Use Applications
Fuel based end-uses for residential, commercial, and industrial consumers require a technology change to achieve economy-wide decarbonization. Space heating accounts for 42% of residential and 32% of commercial energy demand, much of which is currently met through carbon emitting fuels. Industrial energy use is heavily fuel based with electricity currently representing 13% of energy demand. Geothermal heat pumps (GHPs) and geothermal direct use can eliminate the need for CO2 emitting and simultaneously allow for more efficient electrification of end uses. Past work has assessed the impact on total energy costs and generation investments but did not identify specific grid services benefited. Energy usage in residential and commercial structures was assessed by leveraging data from ComStock and ResStock models. These models utilize housing attributes, occupancy patterns, weather data, and sophisticated energy simulations to generate hourly load profiles for individual buildings identified by unique IDs associated with their locations. Industrial sector energy use was evaluated using information from the Manufacturing Energy Consumption Survey (MECS) as well as plant utilization data from the US Census to estimate hourly plant operations. The change in end-use demand for electricity, natural gas, and other fuels was calculated for different technologies that could meet this need. Using the ReEDS capacity expansion model, we produce regional price profiles that capture the grid benefit associated with the amount and timing of energy shifts in the power system from the adoption of geothermal systems relative to other technologies that could meet space heating, space cooling, and process heat requirements. We find that geothermal systems for meeting end-use demand add value to the energy system. In buildings where geothermal systems increase grid costs, these values are offset by reduced fuel costs and benefits to externalities, including emissions and health impacts.
Impact of undoped substrates on high performance silicon solar cells
Today's highest-efficiency silicon solar cells typically operate near the threshold between low-level and high-level injection. It is not well understood if pushing further into a regime in which the cell operating point is solidly in high-level injection at all times of the day has further benefits for the solar cell performance. From a reliability perspective, cells fabricated on lower doped silicon have a larger breakdown voltage. This advantage can affect the design of modules allowing higher voltages and a relaxation of the number of bypass diodes needed. In this project, we present a comprehensive assessment, both experimental and using simulation, of how bulk resistivity, light intensity, and operation temperature impact the performance of the silicon solar cell. This work incorporates a comprehensive device physics analysis assisted by numerical simulation. The source code is now available under General Public License (GPL3), and to further leverage the findings of this project and outreach people outside of the scientific community, we are working with www.pveducation.org (which receives >1 million visitors a year) to create interactive content using our simulation results. The simulation results indicate that high bulk resistivity wafers (>>10 Ωcm) require bulk Shockley-Read-Hall (SRH) lifetimes in the millisecond range to outperform wafers with standard bulk resistivities (<10 Ωcm). Additionally, above bulk resistivities of 10 Ωcm (the exact value depends on the bulk characteristics of the wafer), the cell efficiency is weakly dependent on the bulk resistivity. As a result, ingot manufactures may have an opportunity to further reduce wafer cost by growing higher resistivity ingots that are more tolerant to resistivity variations. This project is particularly relevant today, as solar cell architectures with improved surface passivation and milliseconds lifetimes wafers are commercially available, leveraging potential benefits of using higher bulk resistivities. Outside of interdigitated back contact (IBC) cell, reported studies on high resistivity silicon (>100 Ωcm) are very limited. To the best of our knowledge, this project provides for the first-time experimental insight on solar cells fabricated on wafers with bulk resistivities up to several thousand Ωcm, delivering a comprehensive vision of their performance under real-world temperature and light intensity operation conditions. We manufactured and characterized solar cells with bulk resistivities in the range of 1 Ωcm to >15k Ωcm. Under standard testing conditions (STC), we measured solar cells efficiencies over 20% over the entire range of bulk resistivities, using our baseline cell processing. To evaluate the cell performance in real-world operation conditions, the solar cells were measured at different temperatures (25-80°C) and at different light intensities (0.1-1 suns). The measurements show that the bulk resistivity does not impact the solar cell response to temperature and light intensity. Similar thermal coefficients (TC) were measured for standard and high bulk resistivities, and they are comparable with the TC values reported in the literature for standard bulk resistivities <10 Ωcm. After light soaking, the solar cell didn’t show signs of light-induced degradation (LID). This result was expected since n-type float zone (FZ) wafers were used in this work, i.e. low traces of boron and low concentration of oxygen (oxygen is typically found in the seed end of Czochralski (CZ) ingots). We measured for high bulk resistivities (>10 Ωcm) extremely high breakdown voltages (>1000V). In conclusion, the insight provided by this project can positively impact the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of the photovoltaic systems through its effect on cell and ingot manufacturing yield, silicon cell power output, and module reliability.
A comparative techno-economic analysis of renewable methanol synthesis from biomass and CO 2 : Opportunities and barriers to commercialization
Global demand for methanol as both a chemical precursor and a fuel additive is rising. At the same time, numerous renewable methanol production pathways are under development, which, if commercialized, could provide significant environmental benefits over traditional methanol synthesis pathways. However, it is difficult to compare technologies at different maturity levels, with differing feedstocks, and with significant differences in overall process design. Thus, there is a need to harmonize the analyses of renewable pathways using a consistent techno-economic approach to evaluate the potential for commercialization of various pathways. This analysis uses a novel cross-comparison method to assess near-term and long-term viability of both low- and high-maturity level technologies. Furthermore, the techno-economic assessment considers cost factors critical to market acceptance combined with carbon- and energy-efficiency assessments of three renewable pathways compared with a commercial baseline. We find that biomass gasification to methanol represents a near-term viable pathway with a high technology readiness level and commercially competitive market price. If cost-reducing technological improvements can be realized and scaled up in the CO 2 electrolysis pathways, the potential for higher carbon efficiencies may help drive market adoption of these more modular, direct conversion pathways in future markets as they present an opportunity to better support global decarbonization efforts through efficient waste carbon utilization.