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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Resilient Observer Design for Cyber-Physical Systems with Data-Driven Measurement Pruning

Resilient observer design for Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS) in the presence of adversarial false data injection attacks (FDIA) is an active area of research. The existing state-of-the-art algorithms tend to break down as more and more knowledge of the system is built into the attack model; also as the percentage of attacked nodes increases. From the view of optimization theory, the problem is often cast as a classical error correction problem for which a theoretical limit of has been established as the maximum percentage attacked nodes for which state recovery is guaranteed. Beyond this limit, the performance of -minimization based schemes, for instance, deteriorates rapidly. Similar performance degradation occurs for other types of resilient observers beyond certain percentages of attacked nodes. In order to increase the corresponding percentage of attacked nodes for which state recoveries can be guaranteed, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through a data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown a strong positive correlation between the maximum attacked percentages that can be tolerated and the accuracy of the data-driven model. Motivated by these results, this chapter examines the case for pruning algorithms designed to improve the Positive Prediction Value (PPV) of the resulting prior information, given stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Theoretical quantification of the achievable improvement is given. Simulation results show that the pruning algorithm significantly increases the maximum correctable percentage of attacked nodes, even for machine learning model whose prediction power is comparable to the random flip of a coin.

Resilient Observer, Cyber-physical Systems, Data-D↗
DOE OSTI2020

Holistic Measurement Driven Resilience: Combining Operational Fault and Failure Measurements and Fault Injection for Quantifying Fault Detection, Propagation and Impact. Final report

For HPC systems to date, application resilience to faults and failures has been accomplished by the brute- force method of checkpoint/restart, which allows an application to make forward progress in the face of system and application faults, errors, and failures independent of root cause or end result. It has remained the primary resilience mechanism because we lack a way to identify faults and anticipate consequences early enough to take meaningful mitigating action. However, checkpoint/restart implementations put a tremendous burden on system resources and on the applications themselves and is becoming less feasible at scale. Because we have not yet operated at scales at which checkpoint/restart fails to provide forward progress, despite increasing costs, vendors have had little motivation to provide the instrumentation necessary for early identification of faults and failures. However, as we move from petascale to exascale, component mean time to failure (MTTF) will render the existing techniques ineffectual and/or too expensive. Furthermore, fault recovery mechanisms such as failover and/or error correction introduce performance inconsistency. Instrumentation allowing early indication of problems and tools to enable use of such information by systems, operating systems, and applications offer an alternative, more scalable and less costly solution. In the HMDR project, we built on our experience and expertise developed and accumulated over years of research on design, monitoring, measurement, and assessment of resilient computing systems. Analysis of field data on the current and past generations of extreme-scale systems revealed several challenges that, if not addressed in increasingly larger and more complex systems, may hinder the effectiveness of future exascale computing systems. Specifically, i) file systems and interconnects in current-generation large-scale systems already operate at the margins of resiliency, including consistent performance, and may not scale to larger deployments; ii) automated, software-based failover mechanisms are frequently inadequate and can introduce wider failures, such that failures during recovery may lead to system/application failures, including system-wide outages; and iii) silent data corruption represents a critical fault mode and will require efficient detection mechanisms if next-generation applications are to take full advantage of exascale hardware. To address the above challenges, we assembled a team of world-renowned experts in resilient extreme- scale computing from the University of Illinois (Electrical and Computer Engineering, Computer Science, and NCSA), SNL, LANL, NERSC, and Cray. Our team includes representatives from centers that house many of the largest HPC resources in the world, both today and over the coming years. The team has a unique track record of research in i) system and application failure characterization based on the analysis of field data, ii) data-driven design of fault/error detection mechanisms, and iii) experimental characterization of system/application resiliency. The team includes system owners/operators who provide continuous data collection and access and ensure installation of appropriate analysis tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

The parameter-level performance of covariance matrix conditioning in cosmic microwave background data analyses

Empirical estimates of the band power covariance matrix are commonly used in cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectrum analyses. While this approach easily captures correlations in the data, noise in the resulting covariance estimate can systematically bias the parameter fitting. Conditioning the estimated covariance matrix, by applying prior information on the shape of the eigenvectors, can reduce these biases and ensure the recovery of robust parameter constraints. In this work, we use simulations to benchmark the performance of four different conditioning schemes, motivated by contemporary CMB analyses. The simulated surveys measure the TT, TE, and EE power spectra over the angular multipole range 300 ≤ ℓ ≤ 3500 in Δℓ = 50 wide bins, for temperature map-noise levels of 10, 6.4, and $2\, \mu$K arcmin. We divide the survey data into N real = 30, 50, or 100 uniform subsets. We show the results of different conditioning schemes on the errors in the covariance estimate, and how these uncertainties on the covariance matrix propagate to the best-fitting parameters and parameter uncertainties. The most significant effect we find is an additional scatter in the best-fitting point, beyond what is expected from the data likelihood. For a minimal conditioning strategy, N real = 30, and a temperature map-noise level of 10$\, \mu$K arcmin, we find the uncertainty on the recovered best-fitting parameter to be ×1.3 larger than the apparent posterior width from the likelihood (×1.2 larger than the uncertainty when the true covariance is used). Stronger priors on the covariance matrix reduce the misestimation of parameter uncertainties to $\lt 1{{\ \rm per\ cent}}$. As expected, empirical estimates perform better with higher N real , ameliorating the adverse effects on parameter constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Rationally Designed, Short-Acting RPE65 Inhibitors for Visual Cycle-Associated Retinopathies

Abstract The visual cycle is a metabolic pathway essential for visual function. The bisretinoid byproducts of this pathway can induce retinal toxicity, as occurs in Stargardt disease type 1 (STGD1). Emixustat, which inhibits bisretinoid production, is a visual cycle modulator (VCM) that targets RPE65. However, it causes visual impairment due to its unfavorable duration of action. Here, we report ester-containing analogs of emixustat that are susceptible to hydrolytic clearance and function as short-acting VCMs. We show that the esterase-mediated metabolism of these compounds can be tuned while maintaining high-affinity RPE65 targeting. Compounds 6 (EYE-002) and 7 (EYE-003) containing diethyl acetate and valproate esters, respectively, allowed faster recovery of visual cycle function compared to emixustat. These molecules protected against retinal degeneration in mouse models of photic retinopathy and STGD1. These data demonstrate that shorter attenuation of the visual cycle can therapeutically intervene in retinal diseases with fewer visual side effects compared to emixustat.

Pharmacology & Pharmacy↗
DOE OSTI2020

Catalytic Bio-crude Production in a Novel, Short-Contact Time Reactor

RTI has developed a catalytic fast pyrolysis (CFP) process to produce biomass-based hydrocarbon replacement fuels. From a technology perspective, this advanced biofuels process produces liquid transportation fuels that can leverage capital expenditures in the existing petroleum distribution infrastructure. From a business perspective, this technology does not face potential market limitations caused by oxygenate blend limitations for light duty vehicle applications. A promising catalyst has been developed with excellent potential for deoxygenation to produce a hydrocarbon-rich biocrude that is more suitable for upgrading with traditional hydroprocessing technology. The role of the catalyst is to control the chemistry during biomass pyrolysis to produce a biocrude in a single step that has lower oxygen content and is more thermally stable than conventional biomass fast pyrolysis oil. Catalyst properties are optimized to minimize gas and coke production and improve catalytic deoxygenation and biocrude yields. Results from this project have demonstrated that biocrudes from catalytic fast pyrolysis contain <20 wt% oxygen, with the organic fraction as low as 12% oxygen. These oxygen numbers are > 50% lower compared to traditional fast pyrolysis oils. The biocrude produced from our CFP process can be upgraded to gasoline range hydrocarbons. A very conservative approach for upgrading included a preliminary stabilization step followed by a hydroprocessing step. The oxygen content in the upgraded product was decreased by 97% (to less than 3wt %) from the oxygen content of the biocrude sample. Additionally, the acid content was reduced by 99% from the acid content of the biocrude sample. In an optimized integrated process, the CFP step and the hydroprocessing (upgrading) step need to be carefully balanced to maximize the input biomass energy that is recovered in the finished biofuels. Hydrogen utilization and carbon recovery during both catalytic biomass pyrolysis and biocrude upgrading need to be optimized to maximize energy recovery in the finished biofuel. A nominal 1 ton per day (TPD) catalytic biomass pyrolysis system was designed based on the laboratory experimental data. The system was designed to achieve the short residence times (0.5–2 sec) and high heat transfer rates required for maximum liquid biocrude yields while optimizing process integration to maintain catalyst activity by continuous regeneration. The catalytic biomass pyrolysis reactor is a continuously circulating single-loop transport reactor design that is flexible enough to allow sensitivity studies around temperature, residence time, biomass feed rate, and catalyst-to-biomass ratio (i.e., catalyst circulation rate) for process optimization. For a nominal 100 lb/hr feed rate of dry biomass, the products include ~25 lb/hr char and coke, ~20 lb/hr permanent gases, and ~55 lb/hr condensable vapors. Pyrolysis temperatures are 350–600°C, and the system is operated close to ambient pressure. Production of the catalyst developed within the project was scaled up to provide enough material (200kg) for bench-scale testing. The 1TPD bench-scale unit was fabricated, installed and commissioned with this project. Biocrude samples from wood were produced in this unit with the CFP catalyst with material balance > 90%. The intermediate biocrude yields and chemical composition compare well with previous laboratory results and a hydroprocessing strategy for upgrading the resulting biocrude was developed. The experimental results obtained within this project were used to develop a process model for a 2000 TPD commercial facility. Detailed flow sheets were developed for all major unit operations in the process and provided a basis for an economic analysis to develop capital and operating costs. Estimates of the biofuel production costs were used to develop internal rates of return for the yields and compositions measured for the current state of technology at the end of this project and for the yields anticipated for an optimized (nth plant) scenario as additional process improvements are made.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Spatiotemporal metabolic responses to water deficit stress in distinct leaf cell-types of poplar

The impact of water-deficit (WD) stress on plant metabolism has been predominantly studied at the whole tissue level. However, plant tissues are made of several distinct cell types with unique and differentiated functions, which limits whole tissue ‘omics’-based studies to determine only an averaged molecular signature arising from multiple cell types. Advancements in spatial omics technologies provide an opportunity to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying plant responses to WD stress at distinct cell-type levels. Here, we studied the spatiotemporal metabolic responses of two poplar ( Populus tremula× P. alba ) leaf cell types -palisade and vascular cells- to WD stress using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI). We identified unique WD stress-mediated metabolic shifts in each leaf cell type when exposed to early and prolonged WD stresses and recovery from stress. During water-limited conditions, flavonoids and phenolic metabolites were exclusively accumulated in leaf palisade cells. However, vascular cells mainly accumulated sugars and fatty acids during stress and recovery conditions, respectively, highlighting the functional divergence of leaf cell types in response to WD stress. By comparing our MALDI-MSI metabolic data with whole leaf tissue gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS)-based metabolic profile, we identified only a few metabolites including monosaccharides, hexose phosphates, and palmitic acid that showed a similar accumulation trend at both cell-type and whole leaf tissue levels. Overall, this work highlights the potential of the MSI approach to complement the whole tissue-based metabolomics techniques and provides a novel spatiotemporal understanding of plant metabolic responses to WD stress. This will help engineer specific metabolic pathways at a cellular level in strategic perennial trees like poplars to help withstand future aberrations in environmental conditions and to increase bioenergy sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attack-Resilient Weighted $\ell_{1}$ Observer with Prior Pruning

Security related questions for Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) have attracted much research attention in searching for novel methods for attack-resilient control and/or estimation. Specifically, false data injection attacks (FDIAs) have been shown to be capable of bypassing bad data detection (BDD), while arbitrarily compromising the integrity of state estimators and robust controller even with very sparse measurements corruption. Moreover, based on the inherent sparsity of pragmatic attack signals, ℓ1 -minimization scheme has been used extensively to improve the design of attack-resilient estimators. For this, the theoretical maximum for the percentage of compromised nodes that can be accommodated has been shown to be 50%. In order to guarantee correct state recoveries for larger percentage of attacked nodes, researchers have begun to incorporate prior information into the underlying resilient observer design framework. For the most pragmatic cases, this prior information is often obtained through some data-driven machine learning process. Existing results have shown strong positive correlation between the tolerated attack percentages and the precision of the prior information. In this paper, we present a pruning method to improve the precision of the prior information, given corresponding stochastic uncertainty characteristics of the underlying machine learning model. Then a weighted ℓ1 -minimization is proposed based on the pruned prior. The theoretical and simulation results show that the pruning method significantly improves the observer performance for much larger attack percentages, even when moderately accurate machine learning model used.

Resilient observer, Cyber-physical systems, prunin↗
DOE OSTI2023

Using taxa-based approaches to delineate stream macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to stressor gradients in modified alluvial agroecosystems

Alluvial plain landscapes are some of the most agriculturally productive lands in the world but often have modified stream ecosystems due to cultivation history. This context requires consideration when establishing water quality management goals. We analyzed state water quality databases to demonstrate that Mississippi Alluvial Plain (MAP) ecoregion streams have elevated specific conductivity (SC) and nutrients and lower macroinvertebrate local and regional taxa pools compared to streams in other ecoregions, potentially reducing the efficacy of traditional biomonitoring approaches within the region. To overcome these challenges, we used threshold indicator taxa analysis (TITAN) to compare macroinvertebrate assemblage responses to water quality gradients among ecoregions in Mississippi. We identified individual taxa and assemblage-level responses to increasing water quality degradation in MAP streams. Observed responses occurred at higher concentrations for SC, total organic carbon (TOC) and total phosphorus (TP), but not total nitrogen (TN) relative to other ecoregions. These responses appeared to be driven by a large proportion of indicator taxa considered tolerant or unresponsive in other ecoregions, responding negatively to increasing water quality stressors in MAP streams. Our observed assemblage-level stressor responses to WQ gradients in MAP streams demonstrate shifting tolerance in highly altered ecosystems may require adjustments to recovery expectations but also provide useful measures for monitoring improvements in regional water quality. For example, our observed macroinvertebrate assemblage response to increasing TP identified a management goal similar to guidance based on distributional analysis of water quality data within the MAP ecoregion (0.11 vs 0.128 mg L –1 ) and thus provide some biological basis for previously identified nutrient goals for the region. Our approach can guide and monitor success of nutrient reduction efforts in MAP watersheds and other alluvial plain agroecosystems where reference conditions do not exist, and local and regional taxa pools are less diverse and may not support full recovery of ecological assemblages. While our results are promising, they should also be compared with more sensitive and less habitat-limited biological assemblages (e.g., algae or bacteria) to better understand complex ecological responses to best management practices designed to increase sustainability of high production agricultural regions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soil C stock and CO2 production data for Soong et al. 2021: Effects of five years of soil warming at Blodgett Forest, CA.

Subsoils below 20 cm are an important reservoir in the global carbon cycle, but little is known about their vulnerability under climate change. We measured subsoil carbon in warmed vs control plots of a conifer forest after 4.5 years of whole-soil warming (4°C). We also measured soil CO2 efflux at the surface and soil CO2 concentrations along the soil profile. Over the 4.5 years we observed that warming resulted in a loss of subsoil carbon stocks (−33 ± 11%), primarily from unprotected particulate organic matter. Warming also stimulated a sustained 30 ± 4% increase in soil CO2 efflux due to increased CO2 production through the whole-soil profile. The observed in situ decline in subsoil carbon stocks with warming is now definitive evidence of a positive soil carbon-climate feedback, which could not be concluded based on increases in CO2 effluxes alone. This dataset comprises (1) 13C and C recovery in 2014, 2016, and 2018 1m soil cores sampled in 10cm increments. (2) Monthly surface CO2 fluxes from 2014 to 2018. (3) Monthly gas well sample [CO2] and production data. And (4) density fraction data for three depths of cores recovered in 2017.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Technoeconomic assessment of distillation heat transfer intensification using aeroelastically fluttering reeds

Dry cooling, where forced air is the heat transfer medium, is a preferable cooling method in arid locations lacking readily available process water. However, such locations often experience high ambient temperatures that limit the effectiveness of air cooling. The objective of this study is to quantify the economic and energetic benefits of heat transfer intensification via the implementation of aeroelastically fluttering reeds to the air-cooled condenser of a methanol distillation column. Condenser size and performance, regarding recovered methanol and required fan power, is evaluated across condenser operating temperatures (T cond ) from 60 to 62°C and heat transfer coefficients (U) U base –2U base for a range of inlet air temperatures based on ambient temperature data from Yuma, Arizona. Under typical design sizing, condenser capital cost was reduced by 6%–35% (1.3U base –2U base ) and nominal methanol recovery was increased from 0.26% to 0.38% (T cond = 62–60°C). At optimized condenser size, all enhanced U and T cond pairs increase methanol recovery and reduce fan power costs compared to the optimal Ubase reference. Overall, using enhanced heat transfer to maintain condenser temperature under a wider range of inlet conditions, rather than to reduce operation temperature, produces more favorable performance. Methanol price is not a determining factor in which pairs are profitable. Analysis was repeated for a global warming scenario, revealing more valuable improvements under elevated temperatures. Energy savings from condenser improvement to a methanol production system are not significant with respect to an optimized conventional system. Furthermore, unit economic and energetic incentives suggest implementation of fluttering reeds may be justified in other applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Open Specy 1.0: Automated (Hyper)spectroscopy for Microplastics

Microplastic spectral analysis is one of the most time-consuming processes in studying microplastic pollution, often requiring days per sample. Researchers are transitioning to automated batch and hyperspectral image analysis techniques to enhance efficiency. Open Specy, initially aimed at manual single-spectrum analysis, has now integrated automated methods. This updated version, Open Specy 1.0, introduces several new features, including two algorithms for automated processing (smoothing and particle compression), an extensive library containing over 40,000 open-source Raman and FTIR spectra, and two machine learning classifiers (logistic regression and k medoids) developed from this library. Furthermore, it includes a revamped user interface, an R package, and a benchmark data set for testing future advancements in automated techniques. Researchers evaluated various configurations for hyperspectral smoothing, particle identification, compression, and splitting, to achieve combined recovery rates between 50 and 150% particle counts, identities, and sizes with a coefficient of variation (CV) of less than 40% (the accredited standard). Mean absorbance times the standard deviation provided a consistent particle identification. Hyperspectral smoothing led to a 96% combined recovery rate and reduced variability (CV = 38%) compared to the 86% recovery (CV = 83%) of nonsmoothed controls. Additionally, compressing spectra for particles was significantly faster (>3x) and showed similar accuracy but with reduced variability than processing each pixel individually. Key challenges persist in automating spectral analysis, particularly in refining particle splitting algorithms, and improving identification routines to minimize false positives and negatives. In conclusion, new methods in sample preparation for better stabilization and dispersion of particles could overcome some of these issues.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2019

Validation of RELAP-7 for Forced Convective and Natural Circulation Reactor Flows

New reactor designs such as small modular reactors and newly proposed passive safety systems rely on natural circulation two-phase flow cooling of the reactor core under accident conditions. Without a pump to drive the flow, the circulation rate is a strong function of void fraction. Under these conditions where the flow rate, pressure drop, and heat transfer are all closely coupled through the mixture density, the accurate prediction of void fraction is pivotal. Furthermore, while these passive systems boast a more reliable cooling option, the sensitivity of the system to two-phase flow instabilities is more likely than in forced convective cooling and can result in dangerous density wave or flow excursion conditions. Improvement of one-dimensional system codes and further development of three-dimensional code capability are all important efforts in addressing these issues. The proposed work is a critical step towards providing confidence through validation of the capability of thermal-hydraulic tools to meet the emerging challenges in reactor simulation. Historically, system analysis codes develop a stiffness over time due to fine-tuning of adjustable code parameters that result in a reluctance or inability to adopt improved models. Therefore, a rigorous effort should be invested in preparation for RELAP-7 to identify required modeling improvements of constitutive relations and validation of the code applicability to the wide range of possible reactor flow conditions. Part of this validation involves the uncertainty quantification which is a critical step in the Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty (CSAU) methodology and Best-Estimate Plus Uncertainty (BEPU) licensing method. BEPU allows recovery of safety margins and potentially optimizing plant performance, resulting in economic benefit for the reactor operators. Beginning with the collection of past experimental data covering prototypic LWR conditions, this document reviews three critical datasets available for the validation of system codes. The experimental methods, procedures, facilities, instrumentation, and supplementary information are consolidated to aid the validation efforts of this work and future projects. These three datasets (824 conditions) are chosen due to their wide acceptance and demonstrated application for code validation. Two experimental datasets from the Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (NUPEC) span prototypic conditions of Boiling Water Reactors (BWR) and Pressurized Water Reactors (PWR). These datasets are labeled as the BFBT (BWR Full-size Fine-mesh Bundle Test) and the PSBT (PWR Subchannel and Bundle Test) datasets respectively. The third dataset is taken in an internally heated annulus that is scaled based on a BWR subassembly and includes two-phase flows important to post-blowdown analysis. Together, the datasets consider the full range of pressure and mass flux expected in LWR forced convective flows from steady-state to long term cooling conditions. Recognizing the deficiency of available data under low-pressure, low-flow, a new natural circulation dataset consisting of 107 conditions is obtained. With system pressures ranging between 145 and 950 kPa, natural circulation is driven by a heat flux up to 275 kW/m2 in a 3 m long heated region of the annulus test section which is followed by a 2 m long unheated region before entering a condenser. Stable natural circulation flow rates in this facility were measured to be between 182 and 590 kg/m2-s. Pressure and temperature are measured at ten locations in the facility. In addition, measurements of void fraction, interfacial area concentration, and gas velocity are obtained at five axial locations in the annulus test section. The RELAP5-3D code demonstrates good accuracy for void fraction predictions in BFBT and PSBT benchmarks, but shows relatively large discrepancy in the annulus experiments at lower pressures. In two-phase natural circulation, large oscillations are observed in many system parameters during the simulation of 19 experiment cases which were conducted at low pressures, and the model shows good predictive performance with the remaining 88 experiment cases. However, some discrepancies in void fraction and temperature predictions are found which may require improved constitutive modeling under these low-pressure, low-flow condition. The quantified uncertainty in void fraction predictions in three forced convection benchmarks due to uncertainties in boundary conditions and geometries are relatively small, except for a few cases in the annulus experiment. The output uncertainty of the natural circulation model is quantified by considering the measurement error in boundary conditions, and it is shown that the output uncertainty ranges are relatively small for the range of conditions considered. Through this work, a clear pathway is provided for validation of RELAP7 once the code is available.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

LANL Activities on Mechanistic Approach to Analyzing and Improving Unconventional Hydrocarbon Production

Hydrocarbon production from shale reservoirs is inherently inefficient and challenging since these are low permeability plays. In addition, there is a limited understanding of the fundamentals and the controlling mechanisms, further complicating how to optimize these plays. Herein, we summarize our experimental and computational efforts fully and partially supported by the fundamental shale portfolio to reveal unconventional shale fundamentals and devise development strategies to enhance extraction efficiency with a minimal environmental footprint. Integrating these fundamentals with machine learning, we outline a pathway to improve the predictive power of our models, which enhances the forecast quality of production, thereby improving the economics of operations in unconventional reservoirs. For instance, we have developed science informed workflows and platforms for optimizing pressure-drawdown at a site, which allow operators to make reservoir-management decisions that optimize recovery in consideration of future production. Recently, our work relies on the hybridization of physics-based prediction and machine learning, whereby accurate synthetic data (combined with available site data) can enable the application of machine learning methods for rapid forecasting and optimization. Consequently, the workflow and platform are readily extendable to operations at other sites, plays, and basins.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Socioeconomically-inspired modeling to justify use of fine-grain mobility data

When designing measures to control infectious disease spread, it is crucial to understand the structure of the population for which interventions are being implemented. Recent work has highlighted the need for models that incorporate demographic heterogeneity not just in age structure but also by socioeconomic status (SES). Appropriately capturing additional sources of population heterogeneity requires considerable data and model development. To understand the potential disagreement between SES-explicit or SES-agnostic disease models, we adapted Sandia’s Adaptive Recovery Model (ARM) model to consider differences in contact structure and mortality by Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) on a theoretical network. We also incorporated an Average network that did not consider SVI. By exploring disparities in vaccine and PPE uptake by SES and comparing to Average networks, as well as analyzing the influence of global vs. local contact, we found that the two model constructions often predicted different outcomes. Whether these differences are truly reflective of incorporating SES, and which model most closely represents reality, merits further investigation.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Understanding the temperature and humidity dependence of the SiPM characteristics

A miniature version of the ICAL experiment at the India-based Neutrino Observatory, the mini-ICALis in operation at the IICHEP, Madurai. The commissioning work of a Cosmic Muon Veto detector (CMVD)on top of the mini-ICAL is continued using extruded plastic scintillators with embeddedWLS fibers and the SiPM as a photo-transducer. The CMVD is being built to study thefeasibility of a cosmic muon veto for a shallow-depth neutrino experiment. The SiPM is calibratedusing an ultrafast LED driver andthe same calibration techniques will be used during the data taking period with a simplified LED in thesame readout PCB. An experimental setup wasdesigned to characterise the SiPMs in a temperature controlled environment. The readout electronicsinvolves trans-impedance amplifiers and a voltage followers of combined gain 1.24 mV/$\mu$A and adigital storage oscilloscope for the data collection with a minimal distortion of SiPM signal.Various characteristics of the Hamamatsu SiPM (S13360-2050VE), e.g. signal shape, optically correlatedand uncorrelated noise, recovery time etc were studied as a function of $V_{ov}$, number of photoelectrons,the ambient temperature and the humidity. This paper will cover the details of those results.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing the cumulative effects of nearshore habitat restoration actions for multiple populations of juvenile salmon in Whidbey Basin, Washington: foundation and approach for synthesis and evaluation

Ecosystem restoration is a common tool for re-establishing ecosystem processes, structures, and functions to improve biodiversity and services in coastal and estuarine ecosystems. In the Salish Sea, salmon habitats have been fragmented, reduced in size, and diminished in quality, and the ecosystem processes that form and sustain these habitats have been degraded and disrupted as well. This loss is especially prevalent in estuaries, where up to 90% of former salmon habitat has been lost or compromised. Salmon species are integral to the identities and cultures of people in the Pacific Northwest, yet salmon abundances remain at historic lows, especially in urbanized areas. Recent investments in restoration are creating rearing habitat and repairing lost ecosystem function. However, restoration efforts in this region have largely proceeded at the site scale, with less attention to big-picture thinking regarding how restoration will effectively recover degraded or lost habitats for target species. As a result, no landscape-scale evaluation program exists, and the cumulative benefits of multiple interventions are unknown. We describe innovative methods for science synthesis related to the evaluation of cumulative effects of ecosystem restoration for Pacific salmon, using years of existing, but disparate data. Building from previous work on cumulative effects evaluation and incorporating a hierarchy of hypotheses approach, we propose using causal inference across numerous hypotheses in a framework to assess the cumulative benefits to Pacific salmon from multiple estuarine restoration projects. We present the framework as a method that can be used to address many complex questions and provide examples from the Salish Sea where the approach is being implemented. The framework draws on science synthesis from numerous fields and uses a hierarchy of hypotheses, causal analysis at multiple scales, and a new hierarchy of synthesis for assessing multiple lines of evidence documenting restoration effects on Pacific salmon. We propose causal inference to synthesize dissimilar data streams, in our case, to identify various manifestations of cumulative effects of restoration and benefits to salmon, and to further inform restoration and recovery planning. A unifying framework would allow for the detection of thresholds at which restoration provides measurable improvement and would greatly advance understanding of the effects of restoration on ecosystems.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Metrics for Intercomparison of Remapping Algorithms (MIRA) protocol applied to Earth system models

Abstract. Strongly coupled nonlinear phenomena such as those described by Earth system models (ESMs) are composed of multiple component models with independent mesh topologies and scalable numerical solvers. A common operation in ESMs is to remap or interpolate component solution fields defined on their computational mesh to another mesh with a different combinatorial structure and decomposition, e.g., from the atmosphere to the ocean, during the temporal integration of the coupled system. Several remapping schemes are currently in use or available for ESMs. However, a unified approach to compare the properties of these different schemes has not been attempted previously. We present a rigorous methodology for the evaluation and intercomparison of remapping methods through an independently implemented suite of metrics that measure the ability of a method to adhere to constraints such as grid independence, monotonicity, global conservation, and local extrema or feature preservation. A comprehensive set of numerical evaluations is conducted based on a progression of scalar fields from idealized and smooth to more general climate data with strong discontinuities and strict bounds. We examine four remapping algorithms with distinct design approaches, namely ESMF Regrid (Hill et al., 2004), TempestRemap (Ullrich and Taylor, 2015), generalized moving least squares (GMLS) (Trask and Kuberry, 2020) with post-processing filters, and WLS-ENOR (Li et al., 2020). By repeated iterative application of the high-order remapping methods to the test fields, we verify the accuracy of each scheme in terms of their observed convergence order for smooth data and determine the bounded error propagation using challenging, realistic field data on both uniform and regionally refined mesh cases. In addition to retaining high-order accuracy under idealized conditions, the methods also demonstrate robust remapping performance when dealing with non-smooth data. There is a failure to maintain monotonicity in the traditional L2-minimization approaches used in ESMF and TempestRemap, in contrast to stable recovery through nonlinear filters used in both meshless GMLS and hybrid mesh-based WLS-ENOR schemes. Local feature preservation analysis indicates that high-order methods perform better than low-order dissipative schemes for all test cases. The behavior of these remappers remains consistent when applied on regionally refined meshes, indicating mesh-invariant implementations. The MIRA intercomparison protocol proposed in this paper and the detailed comparison of the four algorithms demonstrate that the new schemes, namely GMLS and WLS-ENOR, are competitive compared to standard conservative minimization methods requiring computation of mesh intersections. The work presented in this paper provides a foundation that can be extended to include complex field definitions, realistic mesh topologies, and spectral element discretizations, thereby allowing for a more complete analysis of production-ready remapping packages.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Supporting data for Site-specific Design Case Study for Wet Waste Hydrothermal Liquefaction and Biocrude Upgrading to Hydrocarbon Fuels

Hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL) is a thermal process that converts wet biomass to renewable hydrocarbon fuel blendstocks (i.e., renewable naphtha, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF)). It can utilize a wide range of pure and blended wet feedstocks, including sewage sludge from water resource recovery facilities (WRRF), food and agriculture wastes, algae, fats, oils and greases (FOG) and blends of dry and wet wastes/feedstocks. Historically, techno-economic analysis (TEA) and annual state of technology (SOT) assessments with standard economic assumptions used by the Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) were conducted for the wet waste HTL pathway leveraging experimental data collected from Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) continuous flow reactor systems. The objective of the SOT assessment has been to guide and track progress of BETO’s HTL research and development (R&D) toward reduced cost and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the pathway. However, gaps exist between BETO’s traditional SOT updates and the needs of key external stakeholders that – if addressed – will accelerate technology adoption. This Business Case Study aims to bridge this gap by providing an updated design, TEA, and LCA based on PNNL’s FY23 R&D with added analyses and information that provide enhanced relevance for stakeholders of the HTL technology. This includes specific siting, regional wet waste resource inventory and transportation cost analyses, fuel market information, sustainable fuel policy impacts, economic metrics of net present value (NPV) and internal rate of return (IRR), greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions analysis, and statistical analysis of cost and technical uncertainties of the HTL plant design. The study focuses on the “Detroit combined statistical area (CSA)” region for siting of a wet waste HTL plant adjacent to the Great Lakes Water Authority (GLWA) facility with guidance from industry participants. Regional resource and siting analyses were conducted to identify feedstock availability, scale, and cost, as well as a beneficial site location. TEA with detailed rigorous capital cost estimation for the specific site application was conducted to evaluate the key economic metrics of most value to industrial partners. These include total capital investment, operating costs, minimum fuel selling price (MFSP) of the biocrude and fuel blendstock, and NPV and internal rate of return IRR with sustainable fuel credits. Life cycle analysis was conducted to evaluate the supply chain greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the wet waste HTL process as compared with petroleum derived diesel. This study is also informed by years of R&D and process de-risking learnings and was conducted with a basic engineering HTL plant design and costing that akin to a “first-of-a-kind” plant economics. This differs from our conventional “nth plant ” SOT assessments. Specifically, the HTL process model has been updated with more operationally reliable methods for feed heating and phase separations. Further, we have implemented additional spare equipment for redundancy, a more rigorous installed equipment cost estimation approach, and additional costs associated with feed formatting and delivery, building, piping and site development. An Excel-based cost sheet based on the basic engineering design is also released alongside the report that allows users to conduct customized TEA with their own feed composition and financial assumptions.

Li, Shuyun↗