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Analysis of TRMM-LIS Lightning and Related Microphysics Using a Cell-Scale Database

Previous studies of tropical lightning activity using Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) data performed analyses of lightning behavior over mesoscale "feature" scales or over uniform grids. In order to study lightning and the governing ice microphysics intrinsic to thunderstorms at a more process-specific scale (i.e., the scale over which electrification processes and lightning occur in a "unit" thunderstorm), a new convective cell-scale database was developed by analyzing and refining the University of Utah's Precipitation Features database and retaining precipitation data parameters computed from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), microwave imager (TMI) and LIS instruments. The resulting data base was to conduct a limited four-year study of tropical continental convection occurring over the Amazon Basin, Congo, Maritime Continent and the western Pacific Ocean. The analysis reveals expected strong correlations between lightning flash counts per cell and ice proxies, such as ice water path, minimum and average 85GHz brightness temperatures, and 18dBz echo top heights above the freezing level in all regimes, as well as regime-specific relationships between lighting flash counts and PR-derived surface rainfall rates. Additionally, radar CFADs were used to partition the 3D structure of cells in each regime at different flash counts. The resulting cell-scale analyses are compared to previous mesoscale feature and gridded studies wherever possible.

Leroy, Anita↗

Wheel Electrometer System

Two documents describe a prototype system of electrometers for measuring electrostatic fields and electrostatic responses of soils on Mars and the Moon. The electrodes of this electrometer are embedded in a wheel of an exploratory robotic vehicle, utilizing the wheel motion to bring the electrodes into proximity or contact with the soil. Each electrode resides in one of two types of sensor modules: electric-field (ELF) or triboelectric (TRIBO). In either type, what is measured is simply the electric charge induced on the electrode by exposure to the external distribution of electrostatic charge. In an ELF module, the electrode is bare and recessed radially from the wheel surface. The ELF sensor provides a measure of the charge on a small patch of undisturbed soil as the wheel rolls forward. In a TRIBO module, the electrode is only slightly recessed and covered with a polymeric insulator flush with the wheel surface. Through contact electrification, the insulator exchanges charge with the soil. There are five TRIBO sensors, each containing an insulator made of a different polymer. The charge data gathered by the five TRIBO sensors can be used to determine how the soil fits into a triboelectric series.

Calle, Carlos I.↗

Lightning Initiation Forecasting: An Operational Dual-Polarimetric Radar Technique

The objective of this NASA MSFC and NOAA CSTAR funded study is to develop and test operational forecast algorithms for the prediction of lightning initiation utilizing the C-band dual-polarimetric radar, UAHuntsville's Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR). Although there is a rich research history of radar signatures associated with lightning initiation, few studies have utilized dual-polarimetric radar signatures (e.g., Z(sub dr) columns) and capabilities (e.g., fuzzy-logic particle identification [PID] of precipitation ice) in an operational algorithm for first flash forecasting. The specific goal of this study is to develop and test polarimetric techniques that enhance the performance of current operational radar reflectivity based first flash algorithms. Improving lightning watch and warning performance will positively impact personnel safety in both work and leisure environments. Advanced warnings can provide space shuttle launch managers time to respond appropriately to secure equipment and personnel, while they can also provide appropriate warnings for spectators and players of leisure sporting events to seek safe shelter. Through the analysis of eight case dates, consisting of 35 pulse-type thunderstorms and 20 non-thunderstorm case studies, lightning initiation forecast techniques were developed and tested. The hypothesis is that the additional dual-polarimetric information could potentially reduce false alarms while maintaining high probability of detection and increasing lead-time for the prediction of the first lightning flash relative to reflectivity-only based techniques. To test the hypothesis, various physically-based techniques using polarimetric variables and/or PID categories, which are strongly correlated to initial storm electrification (e.g., large precipitation ice production via drop freezing), were benchmarked against the operational reflectivity-only based approaches to find the best compromise between forecast skill and lead-time. Forecast skill is determined by statistical analysis of probability of detection (POD), false alarm ratio (FAR), Operational Utility Index (OUI), and critical success index (CSI).

Woodard, Crystal J.↗

The Exploration Portable Electrostatic Detector (xPED)

Astronauts and rovers, while exploring dynamic environments, can experience charge buildup through Tribo-charging (contact electrification). Charge levels can become substantially high. especially in areas where photoelectric and plasma currents are reduced (e.g. lunar polar crater). Tribo-charging in areas that have little to no charge dissipative path can be severe, leaving an astronaut or roving object to remain charged for extended periods of time. Charge buildup on space suits and/or rovers is expected to present significant hazards to missions, such as electrostatic discharge and arcing, dust adhesion to space suits/equipment, and destruction of equipment. The avoidance of hazards associated with charge buildup is critical for future NASA missions to near earth objects, the Moon and Mars. The Exploration Portable Electrostatic Device (xPED) will allow astronauts to determine their charge state, and also characterize the electrical environment from their excursions. xPED would benefit manned, as well as robotic missions.

Jackson, Telana L.↗

Charging and Subsequent Dissipation of a Rover Wheel in the Lunar Polar Regions

As a roving vehicle moves along the lunar surface, electric charge will build up through tribo-charging. This charge collected by the roving object will have a dissipative path to either the surface or the ambient plasma, depending upon which path is most conductive. At the lunar terminator region and into nightside regions, the surface is very cold and becomes a very poor conductor. leaving the plasma as the dominant remediating current for dissipation. However, within lunar craters, even plasma currents become substantially reduced which then greatly increases electric 'dissipation times, This work will involve the advancement of the stepping astronaut charge model, by considering the charging and plasma dissipation of a rolling rover wheel, The objective of this work is to determine the nature of charging and discharging for a rover wheel as it rolls along the cold, plasma-starved lunar polar regions. The rotating wheel accumulates charge via contact electrification (tribo-charging) with the lunar regolith. This tribo-charging is dependent on the composition of the objects in contact, with insulators and conductors charging differently. Given the environmental plasma in the region, we then determine the dissipation time for the wheel to bleed off its excess charge into the surrounding plasma. A model of the rover wheel rotating continuously over a surface regolith within a polar crater has been applied. The environmental plasma has been described previously. We define a new tribo-charging term specifically for the rotating system, with charge levels defined as a function of the wheel size, area in contact with the regolith, regolith particle size distribution, as well as the velocity at which the wheel is turning. We recognize that as charged dust accumulates and sticks to the wheel, this behaves effectively as a new current. Hence, the overall charging of the system should no longer vary linearly. and begin to show signs of saturation, We are devising a dust current term to model this charge-limiting effect, and will present the results in discussion.

Jackson, T. L.↗

The Discharging of Roving Objects in the Lunar Polar Regions

In 2007, the National Academy of Sciences identified the lunar polar regions as special environments: very cold locations where resources can be trapped and accumulated. These accumulated resources not only provide a natural reservoir for human explorers, but their very presence may provide a history of lunar impact events and possibly an indication of ongoing surface reactive chemistry. The recent LCROSS impacts confirm that polar crater floors are rich in material including approx 5%wt of water. An integral part of the special lunar polar environment is the solar wind plasma. Solar wind protons and electrons propagate outward from the Sun, and at the Moon's position have a nominal density of 5 el/cubic cm, flow speed of 400 km/sec, and temperature of 10 eV (approx. equal 116000K). At the sub-solar point, the flow of this plasma is effectively vertically incident at the surface. However, at the poles and along the lunar terminator region, the flow is effectively horizontal over the surface. As recently described, in these regions, local topography has a significant effect on the solar wind flow. Specifically, as the solar wind passes over topographic features like polar mountains and craters, the plasma flow is obstructed and creates a distinct plasma void in the downstream region behind the obstacle. An ion sonic wake structure forms behind the obstacle, not unlike that which forms behind a space shuttle. In the downstream region where flow is obstructed, the faster moving solar wind electrons move into the void region ahead of the more massive ions, thereby creating an ambipolar electric field pointing into the void region. This electric field then deflects ion trajectories into the void region by acting as a vertical inward force that draws ions to the surface. This solar wind 'orographic' effect is somewhat analogous to that occurring with terrestrial mountains. However, in the solar wind, the ambipolar E-field operating in the collision less plasma replaces the gradient in pressure that would act in a collisional neutral gas. Human systems (roving astronauts or robotic systems created by humans) may be required to gain access to the crater floor to collect resources such as water and other cold-trapped material. However, these human systems are also exposed to the above-described harsh thermal and electrical environments in the region. Thus, the objective of this work is to determine the nature of charging and discharging for a roving object in the cold, plasma-starved lunar polar regions. To accomplish this objective, we first define the electrical charging environment within polar craters. We then describe the subsequent charging of a moving object near and within such craters. We apply a model of an astronaut moving in periodic steps/cadence over a surface regolith. In fact the astronaut can be considered an analog for any kind of moving human system. An astronaut stepping over the surface accumulates charge via contact electrification (tribocharging) v.lith the lunar regolith. We present a model of this tribo-charge build-up. Given the environmental plasma in the region, we determine herein the dissipation time for the astronaut to bleed off its excess charge into the surrounding plasma.

Jackson, T. L.↗

Using the VAHIRR Radar Algorithm to Investigate Lightning Cessation

Accurately determining the threat posed by lightning is a major area for improved operational forecasts. Most efforts have focused on the initiation of lightning within a storm, with far less effort spent investigating lightning cessation. Understanding both components, initiation and cessation, are vital to improving lightning safety. Few organizations actively forecast lightning onset or cessation. One such organization is the 45th Weather Squadron (45WS) for the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS). The 45WS has identified that charged anvil clouds remain a major threat of continued lightning and can greatly extend the window of a potential lightning strike. Furthermore, no discernable trend of total lightning activity has been observed consistently for all storms. This highlights the need for more research to find a robust method of knowing when a storm will cease producing lightning. Previous lightning cessation work has primarily focused on forecasting the cessation of cloud-to -ground lightning only. A more recent, statistical study involved total lightning (both cloud-to-ground and intracloud). Each of these previous works has helped the 45WS take steps forward in creating improved and ultimately safer lightning cessation forecasts. Each study has either relied on radar data or recommended increased use of radar data to improve cessation forecasts. The reasoning is that radar data is able to either directly or by proxy infer more about dynamical environment leading to cloud electrification and eventually lightning cessation. The authors of this project are focusing on a two ]step approach to better incorporate radar data and total lightning to improve cessation forecasts. This project will utilize the Volume Averaged Height Integrated Radar Reflectivity (VAHIRR) algorithm originally developed during the Airborne Field Mill II (ABFM II) research project. During the project, the VAHIRR product showed a trend of increasing values with increases in the electric field magnitude above 3 kV/m. An extreme value analysis showed that VAHIRR values less than or equal to 10 dBZ-km showed that the probability of having an electric field magnitude larger than 3 kV/m was less than one in ten thousand. VAHIRR also was found to be sensitive at indicating anvil clouds that posed a threat of initiating a lightning flash. This project seeks to use VAHIRR to analyze its utility as a lightning cessation tool, particularly dealing with the threat posed by detached anvils. The results from this project will serve as a baseline effectiveness of radar ]based lightning cessation algorithms. This baseline will be used in the second, and concurrent work by the co ]author fs who are developing a lightning cessation algorithm based on dual ]polarimetric radar data. Ultimately, an accurate method for identifying lightning cessation can save money on lost manpower time as well as greatly improve lightning safety.

Stano, Geoffrey T.↗

Impact of Aerosols on Convective Clouds and Precipitation

Aerosols are a critical.factor in the atmospheric hydrological cycle and radiation budget. As a major agent for clouds to form and a significant attenuator of solar radiation, aerosols affect climate in several ways. Current research suggests that aerosols have a major impact on the dynamics, microphysics, and electrification properties of continental mixed-phase convective clouds. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing a significant source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Such pollution . effects on precipitation potentially have enormous climatic consequences both in terms of feedbacks involving the land surface via rainfall as well as the surface energy budget and changes in latent heat input to the atmosphere. Basically, aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, the warm-rain process, the cold-rain process, cloud-top heights, the depth of the mixed-phase region, and the occurrence of lightning. Recently, many cloud resolution models (CRMs) have been used to examine the role of aerosols on mixed-phase convective clouds. These modeling studies have many differences in terms of model configuration (two- or three-dimensional), domain size, grid spacing (150-3000 m), microphysics (two-moment bulk, simple or sophisticated spectral-bin), turbulence (1st or 1.5 order turbulent kinetic energy (TKE)), radiation, lateral boundary conditions (i.e., closed, radiative open or cyclic), cases (isolated convection, tropical or midlatitude squall lines) and model integration time (e.g., 2.5 to 48 hours). Among these modeling studies, the most striking difference is that cumulative precipitation can either increase or decrease in response to higher concentrations of CCN. In this presentation, we review past efforts and summarize our current understanding of the effect of aerosols on convective precipitation processes. Specifically, this paper addresses the following topics: observational evidence of the effect of aerosols on precipitation processes, and results from (CRM) simulations. Note that this presentation is mainly based on a recent paper published in Geophy. Rev. (Tao et al. 2012).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Lightning Jump Algorithm and Relation to Thunderstorm Cell Tracking, GLM Proxy and Other Meteorological Measurements

The lightning jump algorithm has a robust history in correlating upward trends in lightning to severe and hazardous weather occurrence. The algorithm uses the correlation between the physical principles that govern an updraft's ability to produce microphysical and kinematic conditions conducive for electrification and its role in the development of severe weather conditions. Recent work has demonstrated that the lightning jump algorithm concept holds significant promise in the operational realm, aiding in the identification of thunderstorms that have potential to produce severe or hazardous weather. However, a large amount of work still needs to be completed in spite of these positive results. The total lightning jump algorithm is not a stand-alone concept that can be used independent of other meteorological measurements, parameters, and techniques. For example, the algorithm is highly dependent upon thunderstorm tracking to build lightning histories on convective cells. Current tracking methods show that thunderstorm cell tracking is most reliable and cell histories are most accurate when radar information is incorporated with lightning data. In the absence of radar data, the cell tracking is a bit less reliable but the value added by the lightning information is much greater. For optimal application, the algorithm should be integrated with other measurements that assess storm scale properties (e.g., satellite, radar). Therefore, the recent focus of this research effort has been assessing the lightning jump's relation to thunderstorm tracking, meteorological parameters, and its potential uses in operational meteorology. Furthermore, the algorithm must be tailored for the optically-based GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), as what has been observed using Very High Frequency Lightning Mapping Array (VHF LMA) measurements will not exactly translate to what will be observed by GLM due to resolution and other instrument differences. Herein, we present some of the promising aspects and challenges encountered in utilizing objective tracking and GLM proxy data, as well as recent results that demonstrate the value added information gained by combining the lightning jump concept with traditional meteorological measurements.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

The Kinematic and Microphysical Control of Storm Integrated Lightning Flash Extent

The objective of this preliminary study is to investigate the kinematic and microphysical control of lightning properties, particularly those that may govern the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx) in thunderstorms, such as flash rate, type and extent. The mixed-phase region is where the noninductive charging (NIC) process is thought to generate most storm electrification during rebounding collisions between ice particles in the presence of supercooled water. As a result, prior radar-based studies have demonstrated that lightning flash rate is well correlated to kinematic and microphysical properties in the mixed-phase region of thunderstorms such as updraft volume, graupel mass, or ice mass flux. There is also some evidence that lightning type is associated with the convective state. Intracloud (IC) lightning tends to dominate during the updraft accumulation of precipitation ice mass while cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning is more numerous during the downdraft-driven descent of radar echo associated with graupel and hail. More study is required to generalize these relationships, especially regarding lightning type, in a wide variety of storm modes and meteorological conditions. Less is known about the co-evolving relationship between storm kinematics, microphysics, morphology and three-dimensional flash extent, despite its importance for lightning NOx production. To address this conceptual gap, the NASA MSFC Lightning Nitrogen Oxides Model (LNOM) is applied to North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (NALMA) and Vaisala National Lightning Detection NetworkTM (NLDN) observations following ordinary convective cells through their lifecycle. LNOM provides estimates of flash type, channel length distributions, lightning segment altitude distributions (SADs) and lightning NOx production profiles. For this study, LNOM is applied in a Lagrangian sense to well isolated convective cells on 3 April 2007 (single cell and multi-cell hailstorm, non-severe multicell) and 6 July 2007 (non-severe multi-cell) over Northern Alabama. The LNOM lightning characteristics are compared to the evolution of updraft and precipitation properties inferred from dual-Doppler and polarimetric radar analyses applied to observations from a nearby Doppler radar network, including the UA Huntsville Advanced Radar for Meteorological and Operational Research (ARMOR, C-band, polarimetric). The LNOM estimated SAD and lightning NOx production profiles are placed in the context of radar derived profiles of vertical motion, precipitation types and amounts. Finally, these analyses are used to determine if storm integrated flash channel extent is as well correlated to volumetric updraft and precipitation ice characteristics in the mixed phase region as flash rate for these individual convective cells.

Carey, Lawrence↗

New Techniques to Evaluate the Incendiary Behavior of Insulators

New techniques for evaluating the incendiary behavior of insulators is presented. The onset of incendive brush discharges in air is evaluated using standard spark probe techniques for the case simulating approaches of an electrically grounded sphere to a charged insulator in the presence of a flammable atmosphere. However, this standard technique is unsuitable for the case of brush discharges that may occur during the charging-separation process for two insulator materials. We present experimental techniques to evaluate this hazard in the presence of a flammable atmosphere which is ideally suited to measure the incendiary nature of micro-discharges upon separation, a measurement never before performed. Other measurement techniques unique to this study include; surface potential measurements of insulators before, during and after contact and separation, as well as methods to verify fieldmeter calibrations using a charge insulator surface opposed to standard high voltage plates. Key words: Kapton polyimide film, incendiary discharges, brush discharges, contact and frictional electrification, ignition hazards, insulators, contact angle, surface potential measurements.

Buhler, Charles↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. In order to become a viable option for operational forecasters to incorporate into their severe storm monitoring process, the total lightning jump must be placed into the framework of several severe storm conceptual models (e.g., radar evolution, storm morphology) which forecasters have built through training and experience. Thus, one of the goals of this study is to examine and relate the lightning jump concept to often used radar parameters (e.g., dBZ vertical structure, VIL, MESH, MESO/shear) in the warning environment. Tying lightning trends and lightning jump occurrences to these radar based parameters will provide forecasters with an additional tool that they can use to build an accurate realtime depiction as to what is going on in a given environment. Furthermore, relating the lightning jump concept to these parameters could also increase confidence in a warning decision they have already made, help tip the scales on whether or not to warn on a given storm, or to draw the forecaster s attention to a particular storm that is rapidly developing. Furthermore the lightning information will add vital storm scale information in regions that are not well covered by radar, or when radar failures occur. The physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation -sized ice mass, etc.; however, very few have related the concept of the lightning jump and manifestation of severe weather to storm dynamics and microphysics using multi -Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques. Therefore, the second half of this study will combine the lightning jump algorithm and these radar techniques in order to place the lightning jump concept into a physical and dynamical framework. This analysis includes examining such parameters as mixed phase precipitation volume, charging zone, updraft strength and updraft volume. Such a study should provide increased understanding of and confidence in the strengths and limitations of the lightning jump algorithm in the storm warning process.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Electrical Anomalies Observed During DC3

The primary scientific goals of DC3 involved improving our understanding of the chemical impacts of thunderstorms and their anvils. However, the Colorado domain provided opportunities to study other interesting phenomena, including the potential impacts of smoke ingestion on convection and thunderstorms, electrification processes in smoke plumes and pyrocumulonimbus clouds, and the production of sprites by unconventional thunderstorm.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

Integration of the Total Lightning Jump Algorithm into Current Operational Warning Environment Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; AMS 10th Satellite Symposium) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end to end physical and dynamical basis for relating lightning rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relation to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation‐sized ice mass, etc.; however, relation specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Shultz, Christopher J.↗

Physical and Dynamical Linkages between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014; this conference) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Physical and Dynamical Linkages Between Lightning Jumps and Storm Conceptual Models

The presence and rates of total lightning are both correlated to and physically dependent upon storm updraft strength, mixed phase precipitation volume and the size of the charging zone. The updraft modulates the ingredients necessary for electrification within a thunderstorm, while the updraft also plays a critical role in the development of severe and hazardous weather. Therefore utilizing this relationship, the monitoring of lightning rates and jumps provides an additional piece of information on the evolution of a thunderstorm, more often than not, at higher temporal resolution than current operational radar systems. This correlation is the basis for the total lightning jump algorithm that has been developed in recent years. Currently, the lightning jump algorithm is being tested in two separate but important efforts. Schultz et al. (2014; this conference) is exploring the transition of the algorithm from its research based formulation to a fully objective algorithm that includes storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy data and the lightning jump algorithm. Chronis et al. (2014) provides context for the transition to current operational forecasting using lightning mapping array based products. However, what remains is an end-to-end physical and dynamical basis for coupling total lightning flash rates to severe storm manifestation, so the forecaster has a reason beyond simple correlation to utilize the lightning jump algorithm within their severe storm conceptual models. Therefore, the physical basis for the lightning jump algorithm in relation to severe storm dynamics and microphysics is a key component that must be further explored. Many radar studies have examined flash rates and their relationship to updraft strength, updraft volume, precipitation-sized ice mass, etc.; however, their relationship specifically to lightning jumps is fragmented within the literature. Thus the goal of this study is to use multiple Doppler and polarimetric radar techniques to resolve the physical and dynamical storm characteristics specifically around the time of the lightning jump. This information will help forecasters anticipate lightning jump occurrence, or even be of use to determine future characteristics of a given storm (e.g., development of a mesocyclone, downdraft, or hail signature on radar), providing additional lead time/confidence in the severe storm warning paradigm.

Schultz, Christopher J.↗

Python-Based Scientific Analysis and Visualization of Precipitation Systems at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center

At NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC), Python is used several different ways to analyze and visualize precipitating weather systems. A number of different Python‐based software packages have been developed, which are available to the larger scientific community. The approach in all these packages is to utilize pre‐existing Python modules as well as to be object‐oriented and scalable. The first package that will be described and demonstrated is the Python Advanced Microwave Precipitation Radiometer (AMPR) Data Toolkit, or PyAMPR for short. PyAMPR reads geolocated brightness temperature data from any flight of the AMPR airborne instrument over its 25‐year history into a common data structure suitable for user‐defined analyses. It features rapid, simplified (i.e., one line of code) production of quick‐look imagery, including Google Earth overlays, swath plots of individual channels, and strip charts showing multiple channels at once. These plotting routines are also capable of significant customization for detailed, publication‐ready figures. Deconvolution of the polarization‐varying channels to static horizontally and vertically polarized scenes is also available. Examples will be given of PyAMPR's contribution toward real‐time AMPR data display during the Integrated Precipitation and Hydrology Experiment (IPHEx), which took place in the Carolinas during May‐June 2014. The second software package is the Marshall Multi‐Radar/Multi‐Sensor (MRMS) Mosaic Python Toolkit, or MMM‐Py for short. MMM‐Py was designed to read, analyze, and display three‐dimensional national mosaicked reflectivity data produced by the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). MMM‐Py can read MRMS mosaics from either their unique binary format or their converted NetCDF format. It can also read and properly interpret the current mosaic design (4 regional tiles) as well as mosaics produced prior to late July 2013 (8 tiles). MMM‐Py can easily stitch multiple tiles together to provide a larger regional or national picture of precipitating weather systems. Composites, horizontal and vertical crosssections, and combinations thereof are easily displayed using as little as one line of code. MMM‐Py can also write to the native MRMS binary format, and sub‐sectioning of tiles (or multiple stitched tiles) is anticipated to be in place by the time of this meeting. Thus, MMM‐Py also can be used to power the creation of custom mosaics for targeted regional studies. Overlays of other data (e.g., lightning observations) are easily accomplished. Demonstrations of MMM‐Py, including the creation of animations, will be shown. Finally, Marshall has done significant work to interface Python‐based analysis routines with the U.S. Department of Energy's Py‐ART software package for radar data ingest, processing, and analysis. One example of this is the Python Turbulence Detection Algorithm (PyTDA), an MSFC‐based implementation of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Turbulence Detection Algorithm (NTDA) for the purposes of convective‐scale analysis, situational awareness, and forensic meteorology. PyTDA exploits Py‐ART's radar data ingest routines and data model to rapidly produce aviation‐relevant turbulence estimates from Doppler radar data. Work toward processing speed optimization and better integration within the Py‐ART framework will be highlighted. Python‐based analysis within the Py‐ART framework is also being done for new research related to intercomparison of ground‐based radar data with satellite estimates of ocean winds, as well as research on the electrification of pyrocumulus clouds.

Lang, Timothy J.↗

Climatological Study of the Short-Term Variation of the 0 C, -10 C, AND -20 C Altitude Levels Over the Florida Spaceport

For evaluation of the potential of cloud electrification, it is necessary to know the altitude of the 0, -10 and -20 degree Celsius levels. Cape Canaveral Air Force Station has recorded balloon launch data back to 1989. In support of rocket launches, often multiple balloons are launched within minutes of each other in the 4-6 hours leading up to launch. In the past, temperature data from sondes was typically available every hour or so through the launch countdown, allowing for frequent updates of these critical temperature thresholds. Recently, launch customers are relying on jimsphere and wind profiler data that do not have a thermodynamic component in the latter 4-6 hours of a countdown. This study compares the altitude differences of the 0, -10 and -20 degree Celsius levels from GPS-tracked consecutive balloon pairs not to exceed 6 hours apart. The analysis uses 3,198 soundings from 2001 to 2013. Approximately 20, 17, and 13 percent of the time the altitude of the temperature level in question (0, -10, -20 degrees C respectively), varies by more than 500 feet (operationally significant threshold) within 6 hours. This study analyzes the altitude variability as a function of several meteorological parameters, such as dew point depression and solar zenith angle. Additionally, the study concludes with impacts to launch operations.

altitude of 0 degree C temperature level↗