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At least 433 records · Page 24

A Literature Review of NO x Emissions in Current and Future State-of-the-Art Gas Turbines

Current U.S. government policy seeks to achieve a completely carbon-free economy by 2050, with a carbon-free electricity sector by 2035 (per executive orders #14008 and #14057). To address these goals, the U.S. Department of Energy is evaluating strategies and technologies that support the production, utilization, transport, and storage of hydrogen (via initiatives such as Department of Energy's (DOE) Energy Earthshot—Hydrogen and various DOE funding opportunity announcements). A carbon-free fuel such as hydrogen cannot be overvalued in a dynamic electric energy sector seeking to decarbonize. One of the most important technologies needed to achieve the goal of a carbon-free electricity sector is a 100% hydrogen-fueled gas turbine. Accommodating hydrogen-based fuels has been a key goal for various original engine manufacturers (OEMs) for many years, but much more research and development (R&D) is needed. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the current state-of-the- art of hydrogen turbine technology, especially regarding nitrogen oxide (NO X ) emissions compared to natural gas-fueled turbines. NO X is the primary criteria pollutant from thermally driven combustion turbines and should be controlled to levels that are equivalent to or below existing standards (as reported “existing standards” for hydrogen-fueled gas turbines may need to be rebaselined). Further, this paper will provide an overview of hydrogen as a fuel and various NO X emissions control techniques that are relevant for hydrogen-based fuels. A conclusion from this overview is that, with some level of R&D, NO X emissions from hydrogen-fueled gas turbines can be controlled to levels similar to those produced by state-of-the-art (SOTA) natural gas-fueled combustion turbines while remaining competitive in terms of performance and efficiency.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A Generalization of Threshold-Based and Probability-Based Models of Information Diffusion

Diffusion of information through complex networks is of interest in studies such as propagation prediction and influence maximization, both of which have applications in viral marketing and rumor controlling. There are a variety of information diffusion models, all of which simulate the adoption and spread of information over time. However, there is a lack of understanding of whether, despite their conceptual differences, these models represent the same underlying generative structures. For instance, if two different models utilize different conceptual mechanisms, but generate the same results, does the choice of model matter? A classification of diffusion of information models is developed based on the neighbor knowledge of the model infection requirement and the stochasticity of the model. This classification allows for the identification of models that fall into each respective category. The study involves the analysis of the following agent-based models on directed scale-free networks: (1) a linear absolute threshold model (LATM), (2) a linear fractional threshold model (LTFM), (3) the independent cascade model (ICM), (4) Bass-Rand-Rust model (BRRM) (5) a stochastic linear absolute threshold model (SLATM) (6) a stochastic fractional threshold model (SLFTM), and (7) Dodds–Watts model (DWM). Through the execution of simulations and analysis of the experimental results, the distinctive properties of each model are identified. Our analysis reveals that similarity in conceptual design does not imply similarity in behavior concerning speed, final state of nodes and edges, and sensitivity to parameters. Therefore, we highlight the importance of considering the unique behavioral characteristics of each model when selecting a suitable information diffusion model for a particular application.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Systems Engineering Analysis of National Ignition Facility Industrial Controls Systems and Safety Interlock Systems Remote Input/Output Networking Migration from ControlNet to EtherNet/IP

The ControlNet industrial communications protocol and modules used in the Industrial Control System (ICS) and Safety Interlock System (SIS) at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) are no longer necessary and the ICS and SIS would be better served by migrating the communications structure to use EtherNet/Industrial Protocol (IP) and EtherNet bridge modules instead. By the admission of the vendor of ControlNet hardware, Rockwell Automation, in literature by Bill Petro [1], “Moving forward, customers will be able to optimize their asset utilization better using EtherNet/IP protocol than with ControlNet.” The NIF is one of the key elements of the Inertial Confinement Fusion (ICF) program at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), a federally funded research and development center (FFRDC). The NIF contains the systems and provides the operational capacity to perform ICF, high energy density (HED), and discovery science experiments utilizing 192 individual beamlines, a host of diagnostics, and all the industrial systems required to facilitate these beamlines and diagnostics. The industrial systems are governed by the ICS and SIS, with the ICS providing control and the SIS providing monitoring and permissives. Construction on the NIF began in 1997 and was certified complete in 2009 and, as a result, the ICS and SIS were developed during this time using the tools that were available then. This includes the communications structure and protocols for these systems, much of which was, and still is, ControlNet. ControlNet, particularly during the time that the ICS and SIS were being built, has several attractive features. ControlNet hardware is exclusive to Rockwell Automation, which was the automation hardware chosen for the ICS and SIS. One feature that could be considered an advantage or a disadvantage depending on the communication needs of the system is that ControlNet also utilizes no active network components, excluding repeaters which are not always necessary. According to the architect of the ICS system at the NIF, Gordon Lau, one of the most attractive features of the ControlNet protocol during development of the ICS and SIS was that it is deterministic, providing timing of data transfer that is executed exactly as it is defined by the developer.

42 ENGINEERING↗

An updated LLVM-based quantum research compiler with further OpenQASM support

Abstract Quantum computing is a rapidly growing field with the potential to change how we solve previously intractable problems. Emerging hardware is approaching a complexity that requires increasingly sophisticated programming and control. Scaffold is an older quantum programming language that was originally designed for resource estimation for far-future, large quantum machines, and ScaffCC is the corresponding LLVM-based compiler. For the first time, we provide a full and complete overview of the language itself, the compiler as well as its pass structure. While previous works Abhari et al (2015 Parallel Comput. 45 2–17), Abhari et al (2012 Scaffold: quantum programming language https://cs.princeton.edu/research/techreps/TR-934-12 ), have piecemeal descriptions of different portions of this toolchain, we provide a more full and complete description in this paper. We also introduce updates to ScaffCC including conditional measurement and multidimensional qubit arrays designed to keep in step with modern quantum assembly languages, as well as an alternate toolchain targeted at maintaining correctness and low resource count for noisy-intermediate scale quantum (NISQ) machines, and compatibility with current versions of LLVM and Clang. Our goal is to provide the research community with a functional LLVM framework for quantum program analysis, optimization, and generation of executable code.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Fast and accurate reduced-order modeling of a MOOSE-based additive manufacturing model with operator learning

One predominant challenge in additive manufacturing (AM) is to achieve specific material properties by manipulating manufacturing process parameters during the runtime. Such manipulation tends to increase the computational load imposed on existing simulation tools employed in AM. The goal of the present work is to construct a fast and accurate reduced-order model (ROM) for an AM model developed within the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) framework, ultimately reducing the time/cost of AM control and optimization processes. Our adoption of the operator learning (OL) approach enabled us to learn a family of differential equations produced by altering process variables in the laser’s Gaussian point heat source. More specifically, we used the Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator network (DeepONet) to develop ROMs for time-dependent responses. Furthermore, we benchmarked the performance of these OL methods against a conventional deep neural network (DNN)-based ROM. Ultimately, we found that OL methods offer comparable performance and, in terms of accuracy and generalizability, even outperform DNN at predicting scalar model responses. The DNN-based ROM afforded the fastest training time. Furthermore, all the ROMs were faster than the original MOOSE model yet still provided accurate predictions. FNO had a smaller mean prediction error than DeepONet, with a larger variance for time-dependent responses. Unlike DNN, both FNO and DeepONet were able to simulate time series data without the need for dimensionality reduction techniques. Finally, the present work can help facilitate the AM optimization process by enabling faster execution of simulation tools while still preserving evaluation accuracy.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Enabling Low-Temperature (LTP) Ignition Technologies for Multi-Mode Engines through the Development of a Validated High-Fidelity LTP Model for Predicative Simulations Tools

The goal of multi-mode engine architectures is to extend current lean-burn dilution limits with renewable fuels, which requires spark plugs to deposit high energies (hundreds of mJ) in order to initiate ignition and complete combustion. At elevated energy deposition rates, spark plugs experience increased electrode erosion and thermal losses, which ultimately shortens the spark-plug lifetime and lowers ignition efficiency. As such, in order to safeguard the efficiency gains of multi-mode concepts, new and improved ignition technologies are required. Recently, non-equilibrium low-temperature plasmas (LTP) have been shown to promote energy-efficient ignition via quenching and transport of electronically excited atoms and molecules, selective radical production and fast heating of hydrocarbon/air mixtures [1-2]. Thus, LTP is seen as a technology that can potentially improve the energy extraction efficiency of fuels, while enabling kinetically controlled combustion modes towards fuel leaner conditions to realize current DOE VTO goals of improving the sustainability of future mobility [3]. Although many previous studies have demonstrated the efficacy of plasma-assisted ignition to enhance combustion, the detailed enhancement mechanisms remain largely unknown, especially for oxygenated fuels and at elevated pressures that are most relevant to practical engine conditions. These barriers hinder the development of accurate and comprehensive numerical models that seek to describe LTP-based ignition in existing engine design software tools and methods. Current state-of-the-art simulation capabilities for LTP ignition systems are in need of improvements since they deliver qualitative results only due to important limitations of existing approaches. Firstly, validated kinetic models with elementary steps for plasma discharges in oxygenated fuel/air mixtures of relevance to the transportation sector are required. Such kinetic models do not exist at present and will be developed and validated within this project. Secondly, plasma discharges and reactive mixture ignition are multi-scale, unsteady processes requiring high-performance numerical methods and software that execute efficiently on DOE supercomputers. Such software does not exist at present and will be developed and applied to practical LTP ignition scenarios as part of this project. Thirdly, experimental databases that are tailored to serve as benchmark in support of the development of predictive computational models of LTP ignition do not exist and will be part of this project.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Expanded Capabilities and Opportunities for Virtual Beamline Code

In the 25 years since LLNL broke ground on the National Ignition Facility (NIF) - a cornerstone of the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Stockpile Stewardship Program - the NIF and Photon Science (NIF&PS) Directorate has steadily pushed the boundaries of laser physics, nonlinear optics, and photonics in service of inertial confinement fusion experiments, and advanced photon sources development. Beyond the 192 beamlines of the primary laser facility with its world-record energy and fusion yields, NIF&PS capabilities have expanded to include chirped-pulse amplification, kilojoule petawatt-class short-pulse systems to generate hard x-ray radiographic probes, high-average power lasers as secondary sources for generation or wake field particle acceleration along directed energy applications, and other scientific pursuits. The Computing Directorate partners with NIF&PS on numerous projects and technologies from diagnostic measurements and high performance control systems to data analysis, information technology infrastructure, and scientific simulation code development. “This strong collaboration enables cutting-edge science, particularly with regard to physics-based modeling and simulation,” says physicist Jean-Michel Di Nicola. One crucial capability for NIF&PS is the Virtual Beamline (VBL) laser simulation code. It can model all the major laser physics and technology involved in the design optimization, commissioning, and operations of advanced laser architectures from tabletop to NIF-scale. VBL provides researchers with high-fidelity models and high-resolution calculations of laser performance predictions—including for the entire NIF laser system, the Advanced Radiographic Capability, parts of the High Repetition-Rate Advanced Petawatt Laser System laser delivered to the Czech Republic, and the Optical Science Laser. After more than two decades of experimentally verified physics and computing enhancements, this unique workhorse code is wrapping up another major milestone: migration from Java to C++ with a flurry of user interface and optimization features, as well as laser physics and high-resolution enhancements thanks to parallel execution on Livermore Computing platforms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Continuous Monitoring and Partial Water Softening for Cooling Tower Water Treatment

Cooling towers are an integral component of many refrigeration systems, providing comfort or process cooling across a broad range of applications. They are the point in the system where heat is dissipated to the atmosphere through the evaporative cooling process. Cooling towers are commonly found in industrial applications and are also often used in water-cooled chilled water plants in medium to large commercial buildings. Continuous monitoring and partial water softening for cooling towers used in medium to large commercial buildings are the focus of this paper. Cooling towers consume large amounts of water. Cooling tower-related water consumption is one of largest potable water loads within buildings in the United States, with substantial building water use associated with heating and cooling. Regional water shortages have highlighted a need to reduce water consumption; the U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) and Executive Order 13834 place priority on reducing water consumption. This priority has fueled interest in the identification, investigation, and potential broad deployment of cost-effective opportunities to reduce water use, such as alternative water treatment (AWT) technologies for cooling towers. Traditional water treatment approaches use chemicals to extend the ability of the water to hold scaling minerals in suspension, minimize corrosion, and prevent biological growth. This treatment protects the chillers and cooling tower equipment; however, even when chemicals are used regularly, a certain percentage of condenser water must be drained and made up with fresh water to maintain system water quality parameters. In addition, the use of chemicals sometimes creates a waste disposal issue and can cause building owners to incur additional fees, such as disposal or wastewater charges. To manage cooling tower water treatment, GSA typically contracts with a company specializing in conventional chemical maintenance for a fixed fee. While there are many types and vendors of AWT systems, this project assesses the effectiveness of one technology provided by Aqualogix. This system is a chilled water plant monitoring and control system aimed at optimizing system performance by reducing the blowdown occurrences used to remove mineral build-up. The technology consists of two components – continuous programmable logic control (PLC) monitoring and side-stream filtration with partial water softening. PLC monitoring calculates cycles of concentration (CoC) and determines the optimum amount of blowdown water required to satisfy all water chemistry requirements. Side-stream filtration removes suspended matter and improves biocide efficacy while precisely dispensing softened water to achieve optimal makeup water hardness. Unlike other AWT systems evaluated by GSA to date, this system does not replace the legacy treatment system but is used in addition to chemical water treatment. The vendor claims their technology will reduce water consumption, water discharge, and maintenance costs. The AWT system evaluated in this demonstration is a commercialized technology. Given its commercialized state, the system evaluated in this report is at a Technology Readiness Level 9 according to National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) definitions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Advanced Fuels Campaign Execution Plan

The Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) Execution Plan outlines the strategy, mission, scope, near-term and long-term goals, structure, and organization associated with nuclear fuels and materials research, development, and demonstration activities within the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Nuclear Fuel Cycle and Supply Chain (NFCSC) program. NFCSC has been given responsibility to identify and mature advanced fuel technologies for the DOE using a science-based approach, focused on developing a fundamental understanding of nuclear fuels and materials to drive development of integrated nuclear fuel and materials technology. This science-based approach combines theory, experiments, and multiscale modeling and simulation to achieve a predictive understanding of relevant behaviors ranging from fuel fabrication processes (and their resulting fuel microstructures) through fuel/cladding performance under irradiation (in contrast to more empirical, observation-based approaches frequently used in fuel performance modeling and fuel qualification). The traditional scope of AFC includes the evaluation and development of multiple fuel forms to support two fuel cycle options: once-through and full recycle. The word “fuel” is used generically to include conventional fuels, transmutation targets, and any associated cladding or duct materials. The once-through fuel cycle addresses advanced light water reactor fuels with enhanced performance, extended burnup, and reduced waste generation. In fiscal year (FY) 2012, AFC’s scope expanded to include research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) for light water reactor (LWR) fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. Fuel fabrication activities include the development of innovative methods to enhance process efficiencies, reduce waste, and improve control over as-fabricated fuel microstructural properties to achieve desired in-reactor performance. Using modern modeling and simulation approaches, the objective is to predict fresh fuel properties given the feedstock characteristics and fabrication process parameters. The performance-related activities include small-scale, in-reactor, and out-of-reactor phenomenological testing (distinct from, but synergistic with, integral prototypic testing) and extensive, quantitative characterization (focusing on characterization of fuel and cladding materials at the scale of microstructure) both before and after testing. Larger-scale, prototypic experiments are conducted in concert with phenomenological testing to drive a Fuel Development and Qualification program, incorporating a fundamental understanding of fuel behavior performance characteristics. Then, using the tools developed under the productive science-based approach, fuels will be optimized to meet specific performance requirements, thereby minimizing the need to repeatedly perform large-scale, integral experiments over a wide parametric range as a means of experimental exploration. Two significant initiatives are underway within AFC. First, a gap analysis completed in early FY 2019 identified critical irradiation testing needs that are lacking within the national light water reactor (LWR) fuels testbed since the shutdown of the Halden Reactor in 2018. The identified gaps are for instrumented, prototypic testing of LWR fuels, especially under boiling water reactor conditions, ramp conditions, and conditions leading to fuel failure; these needs exist for supporting current LWR fuels and their possible extension to higher burnups, but are especially urgent relative to near-term development and qualification of accident-tolerant fuels. Recommendations that resulted from the Halden Gap Analysis focused on enhancements at Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) and Transient Reactor Test Facility (TREAT) to fill gaps in testing capabilities relative to these needs. Second, a concerted effort to develop and demonstrate a systematic approach to accelerating the development, testing, and qualification of new fuel systems has been initiated. This is highlighted by a test strategy that combines the considerable advances in multiscale, mechanistic fuel modeling of recent years with a MiniFuel separate effects test program in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) and a Fission Accelerated Steady-state Testing (FAST) semi-integral accelerated test program in ATR. This approach is being tested/demonstrated using the metallic fuel system, but if successful it is expected to be extensible to multiple fuel types and diverse applications. This document includes an overview of the NFCSC program, a definition of science-based development of nuclear fuels, near-term goals for Advanced LWR fuels (ALFs), and longer-term goals for Advanced Reactor Fuels (ARFs) RD&D. This includes the activities that will be conducted to achieve success toward the grand challenge, as well as the goals and milestones to be achieved over the next few decades of research and development. Long-term goals are based on the DOE Office of Nuclear Energ

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Understanding and controlling water-organic co-transport in amorphous microporous materials

The transport of molecules in microporous material is a significant and active area of research in separation applications. The movement of vapor/liquid molecules in a high-loading condition in microporous spaces is especially challenging to interrogate. This project aims to understand and control the transport of complex water and organic solvent mixtures in varying structures of microporous carbon molecular sieve (CMS) and activated carbon membranes. Modeling of transport behavior in such carbonaceous samples using computational modeling is difficult due to their amorphous structure. Therefore, this research intends to study the transport mechanism of water-organic mixtures by experimentally revealing fundamental transport properties, such as guest sorption amounts as well as diffusion and permeation rates. Considering the different size and guest-host affinity of water and organic solvent molecules, the objective of this research is to understand the structural conditions within the ultramicropores and micropores that generate different types of molecular transport and selection mechanisms within such complex systems. Carbonaceous materials are developed using tailored pyrolysis techniques to pyrolyze polymeric precursors, including polyvinylidene chloride (PVDC),polyvinylidene fluoride (PVDF), polymer of intrinsic microporosity (PIM) -1, and fully aromatic polyamide. The initial stage of the research will focus on the microscopic diffusion and sorption studies of pure component water, xylene isomers, and n,n- dimethylformamide within various carbons. Additional structural investigation on CMS, such as gas physisorption and neutron scattering studies, will be executed to gain deeper insight into these structure-transport relationships. Scanning electron microscopy and X-ray photoelectron microscopy are also used to further characterize these materials. The research will progress to probe mutual diffusion of complex water-organic mixtures within various CMS microstructures. Competitive sorption and permeation studies of the binary mixtures in different microstructural CMS will be followed. The obtained binary mixture transport parameters were used to predict binary water-organic mixtures transport.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Estimating the Contributions to Human Error Probability from the Convolution of the Distribution of Time Available and Time Required

As part of their duties, Human Reliability Analysis must often evaluate if crews in nuclear power plants (NPPs) can complete tasks associated with a human-failure event within time limits. For example, the time required in NPP scenarios is determined by systematic and structured walkthroughs, feasibility studies, recorded times from training exercises, and interviews with experienced operators and experts. Typically, a point estimate is derived for the estimate (mean, maximum, or 95th percentile of time required). Using point-estimate values can mask the risk associated with variability among crews, plant conditions and set-up, environmental conditions, and other impact factors under which these actions are executed. While point estimates for time required and time available have served the industry well, without considering the uncertainty they could lead to biased understanding about the risk. The Integrated Human Event Analysis System - General Methodology (IDHEAS-G) model (developed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NRC) for human error probability calculates human error probability by summing two probabilities: insufficient time and cognitive error. As such, the model takes a more holistic approach by considering the full distributions for time required and time available to calculate the human error probability because the time available to complete the task is insufficient. In this study, we expand on the work of the NRC and discuss methods for estimating these time considerations. For example, for the time required, the impact of Performance Influencing Factors (PIFs) on the distribution was divided into impacts that are aleatory in nature, such as crew-to-crew variability, and those that are epistemic (i.e., the PIFs). Starting with the factors that introduce aleatory uncertainty, a first-order distribution was developed from a large set of time required (i.e., NPP task completion times) data for the range of operator actions that occur in the NPP control room under simulated accident conditions. The first-order distribution can then be adjusted to account for epistemic uncertainty using research associated with the impact of applicable PIFs on the time required. We also develop guidance for analysts to address the probability distributions for the time available. The guidance we developed on how to estimate time required and time available distributions is based on the identification of pertinent research and data, data analyses, and expert knowledge elicitation.

human error probability, human performance, time e↗

Assembling a Cyber Range to Evaluate Artificial Intelligence / Machine Learning (AI/ML) Security Tools

In this case study, we will describe the design and assembly of a cyber security test range we have built at Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Oak Ridge, TN, USA. The range is designed to provide a flexible environment to evaluate cyber security tools—particularly those involving AI/ML—in a way that provides realistic environments and where we can control the experiments to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the tools. We have designed in the ability to repeat the evaluations, so additional tools can be evaluated and compared at a later time. The system is one that can be scaled up or down for experiment sizes. At the time of the conference we will have completed two full-scale, national, government challenges on this range. These challenges are evaluating the performance and operating costs for AI/ML-based cyber security tools for application into large, government-sized environments. These evaluations will be described, in order to provide motivation and context for various design decisions and adaptations we have made. The first challenge measured end-point security tools against 100K malware samples chosen across a range of types. The second is network detection of attempted penetration and exploitations with varying levels of covertness in a high-volume, business network. The scale of each of these challenges is requiring us to create automation systems to repeat the experiments identically for each tool. Preventing there being easy signs of malicious activity for the AI/ML tools to focus on has been a particularly interesting and challenging aspect of designing and executing these challenge events. After the events, the range continues to be used for other research such as adversarial machine learning where the repeatability, scale, and automation required for the national challenge events become essential elements for research.

Nichols, Jeff↗

GIS-Based Modeling of Contaminated Soil Volumes at Multiple Sites in the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program - 20149

The remediation of hazardous, toxic, and radioactive waste (HTRW) sites produces cost-related risks associated with the estimation of contaminated soil or debris volumes. Historical risk-management techniques include cost contingencies to cover volume uncertainties that affect project budgeting and decision-making. The Buffalo District teamed with project partners to lessen volume uncertainty and reduce project risks at multiple HTRW sites managed under the Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). Historical remedial investigations under FUSRAP commonly identified the presence of radiological material in site media, the associated human health risk, and then areas of remediation. To manage remedial execution and reduce risk, pre-design or remediation-phase sampling essentially 'chased' contamination, which was not conducive to efficient predictive budgeting derived from Feasibility Study (FS) cost analyses. The Buffalo District first optimized their approach to better understand volume uncertainty by utilizing the Argonne National Laboratory's Bayesian Approaches for Adaptive Spatial Sampling (BAASS) software [1]. BAASS processed soft data (e.g., gamma walk-over data) and spatial sampling data to estimate the lateral extent of contaminated soil irrespective of depth (i.e., gross contamination extent) and define areas of contaminant uncertainty. The software performed a binary transformation of contaminant concentrations at all sampling points based upon remedial action goals or a sum of ratios approach (i.e., clean, impacted, or range of impacts in soil). The model produced two-dimensional (horizontal) contaminant probability contours and statistical uncertainty in the sampling coverage and resulting contaminant extents. This method was translated vertically by partitioning the sampling data into depth brackets that produced a stacked representation of contaminant extents and uncertainty in the subsurface (i.e., similar to construction lifts). The results commonly led to a better understanding of project uncertainty and the need for sampling strategies that produce high-confidence soil volumes, which control costs. The BAASS-based delineations were eventually replaced by Empirical Bayesian Kriging (EBK) methods available in ArcGIS Spatial or 3D Analysts [2]. The EBK method calculates contaminant probability zones derived from user-controlled semivariograms of the spatial datasets. The resulting probability zones (e.g., 50% or 80% of contaminant probability) represent the two-dimensional surface delineation of the overall horizontal remedial area, similarly to BAASS. However, unlike BAASS, the vertical sampling data within these probability zones became vertical control points to contour a subterranean surface that connects subsurface points to the land-surface delineations of contamination. The resulting representation of horizontal and vertical impacts within an enclosed envelop (volume) of soil included uncertainty distributions that are used to plan uncertainty-reduction sampling. These data-driven and math-based models of three-dimensional sampling results produced well-bounded remedial volumes for project planning and better uncertainty predictions during project budgeting. The EBK method was applied to several FUSRAP sites managed by the Buffalo District and compared to less rigorously modeled sites previously remediated by the District. The comparison of modeled to actual remediated volumes provide a basis for validating the volume-estimation method. This comparison is important to ensure modeled volumes match physical boundaries of site remediation. FUSRAP sites with denser investigative sampling and lesser volume uncertainty proved useful in remedial planning and contracting. The Buffalo District noted that historical sites with sparser sampling arrays had greater disparity between estimated volumes and final remedial volumes. The benefit achieved over the cost of detailed soil sampling appears positive for FUSRAP projects, especially where impacts vary widely and appear unbounded by investigation-phase sampling. The subsequent Empirical Bayesian Kriging of contamination coupled with vertical contouring for soil estimations reduces uncertainty in soil volumes or indicates where sampling is required to reduce uncertainty, which together optimize remedial planning and budgeting. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

CyTRICS Impact-Based Prioritization Process

Cyber Testing for Resilient Industrial Control Systems™ (CyTRICS™) is the Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) program for cybersecurity vulnerability testing, digital subcomponent enumeration, and forensic assessment. CyTRICS leverages best-in-class test facilities and analytic capabilities at six DOE National Laboratories and strategic partnerships with key stakeholders including technology developers, manufacturers, asset owners and operators, and interagency partners. During the program’s development, CyTRICS established a unique methodology for prioritizing digital components within operational technology (OT) and industrial control systems (ICS) in the Energy Sector Industrial Base (ESIB) for cyber vulnerability testing. The CyTRICS prioritization process leverages multiple characteristics of systems, components, and their contextual deployment to calculate a quantification of individual digital components for CyTRICS testing. The initial version of the CyTRICS prioritization process was premised largely upon the impact which could result to an energy sector industrial control system if the digital component under testing was compromised, either through malicious means, faulty engineering, or other modes. CyTRICS has termed this process the “CyTRICS Impact-based Prioritization Process.” This paper describes the factors identified for use in the Impact-based Prioritization process and identifies the rationale for inclusion. During development, three National Laboratories piloted this prioritization process and generated prioritization scores for seven systems. Following the piloting of the process, laboratory subject matter experts (SME) validated that the numerical scores generated by the prioritization process were consistent with their knowledge of the impact that may occur should any of these systems be disrupted. The following document explains how to perform the prioritization process to generate prioritization scores for energy sector systems. After outlining assumptions required to conduct the process, it describes how to identify and elicit data which can be leveraged to evaluate a system and assign numerical values for each factor. The prioritization process uses different weights on different factors; rationale for each weight is included within the paper. Additionally, the paper includes some recommendations for future enhancements to prioritization, including lessons learned from developing and piloting the process. Finally, a comprehensive appendix includes example documents to be leveraged by those looking to execute the prioritization process.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Salt Vessel-Sample Generator Interface

The goal of the salt sampling program at Argonne is to develop and deploy automated molten salt sampling approaches for interfacing relevant unit operations with salt analysis to improve the timeliness and accuracy of sampling-based accountancy measurements. One technology under development is a vacuum sampler loop module. In this system, molten salt is drawn from a process vessel through a heated sampling line and into a charge vessel. Next, one or more samples are split from the volume in the charge vessel and the remaining salt is returned to the process. The vacuum sampler loop module is being developed to interface with other sample processing and analysis modules to enable rapid at-line sample characterization. The main purpose of the vacuum sampling loop module is to enable the collection of samples that are more representative of the bulk salt by replacing traditional point samplers (i.e., dip probes) with a sampling approach that captures a larger cross section of salt. Additionally, the vacuum sampling approach eliminates the risk of dross contamination of samples and avoids the use of moving parts in the salt. Two methods of interfacing the vacuum sampling loop with a precision pneumatic sample generator were investigated in FY21. This report covers the testing of fluidic coupling between the two modules. Two iterations of the fluidically coupled modules were tested. The first iteration system coupled the two modules using a freeze valve to seal the vacuum sampler during filling and to control flow into the pneumatic sample generator. While this integrated system functioned as intended, some changes were implemented to make the system more robust and better suited to remote deployment. Specifically, the system was made to be more modular and active control of the vacuum filling operation was replaced with a passive control mechanism. For passive filling, the salt charge vessel was vented to a small gas tank that was at negative pressure, causing salt to be drawn into the vessel until the force of the fluid head was in equilibrium with the gas pressure. The passive control system performed well and will be used in future iterations. Another change in the second system was a newly configured pneumatic sample generator in which sample ejection occurred through a hole in the reservoir’s stainless-steel side wall instead of through a non-wetted sapphire orifice on the bottom. This alternate configuration may be better suited for near-process deployment because it enables on-line orifice maintenance and an orifice bypass drain back to the process. A third change in the second iteration system was the transition to a two-chamber charge vessel which split off a fraction of the sampled salt as a liquid aliquot. The goal was to create a buffer mechanism that would allow reproducible aliquoting of samples, independently of variability in the charge vessel fill height. While the two-chamber design was functional, the sample size reproducibility was below target values. To improve reproducibility and overcome many of the impediments to remote deployment of the vacuum sampling loop module, separate work was conducted to replace the two-chamber liquid aliquoting mechanism with aliquoting into single-use sample tubes. Solid salt transfer in the sample tubes will replace fluidic coupling for integrating the vacuum sampler with downstream modules. Because the proposed operations can all be executed with simple overhead actuation mechanisms or other existing hot-cell technology, there will be no need for large investments in novel hot cell sample handling technologies using this alternate approach. As such, near-term deployment of the vacuum sampling technology will be achievable. This new approach for automated coupling of sample tubes with down-stream modules is covered in a separate FY21 report, and a remotely operated version of the vacuum sampler loop module with the tube aliquoting feature is planned for FY22.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning for Bioenergy Research: Opportunities and Challenges

The integration of artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) with automated experimentation, genomics, biosystems design, and bioprocessing technologies is poised to revolutionize scientific investigation and, particularly, bioenergy research. To identify the opportunities and challenges in this emerging research area, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research program (BER) and Bioenergy Technologies Office (BETO) held a joint virtual workshop on AI/ML for Bioenergy Research (AMBER) on August 23–25, 2022. These interests have since been amplified in a September 2022 Executive Order, “Advancing Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Innovation for a Sustainable, Safe, and Secure U.S. Bioeconomy,” to promote a whole-of government approach to biotechnology development (White House 2022). Approximately 50 scientists with various backgrounds and expertise from academia, industry, and DOE national laboratories met to discuss the opportunities and challenges of AI/ML for bioenergy research. Workshop participants were tasked with assessing the potential for AI/ML and laboratory automation to advance biological understanding and engineering in general. They particularly examined how integrating AI/ML tools with laboratory automation could accelerate biosystems design and optimize biomanufacturing. Discussions included the data and computational infrastructure needed to augment biosystems design applications and the expertise and workforce development efforts urgently required to shift integrated systems toward bioenergy research more broadly. Participants discussed many existing and future applications of AI/ML for biosystems design ranging from enzymes to plants and microbes, microbiomes, and bioprocess development. They also identified three key categories of scientific and technical opportunities and challenges: high-quality data, AI/ML algorithms, and laboratory automation. Several main takeaways emerged from the workshop: 1. Numerous AI/ML and automated experimentation applications exist for a variety of DOE mission needs in energy and the environment; 2. Exemplary research grand challenges for which AI/ML could provide solutions include: building microbes and microbial communities to specifications, developing closed-loop autonomous design and control for biosystems design, and advancing scale-up and automation; 3. Lack of sufficient high-quality, annotated data hinders the development of AI/ML applications; 4. New and improved AI/ML tools are needed, particularly those meeting the specific needs of the BER and BETO research communities; 5. Trade-offs in performance, cost, and reliability exist between deploying commercially available versus building custom-developed instrumentation and software for automated or autonomous experimentation; translation of manual to automated or autonomous methods is often a nontrivial endeavor; 6. Training a new generation of young scientists who can develop and apply AI/ML tools is needed to solve long-standing scientific challenges in bioenergy research. The integration of AI/ML tools and automated experimentation represents a new data-driven research paradigm complementary to the traditional hypothesis-driven research paradigm. This paradigm accelerates design and optimization of biological systems and processes for a variety of DOE mission needs in energy and the environment. The AMBER workshop broadly explored the potential of this new paradigm for bioenergy research, of particular interest to BER and BETO, and identified key challenges and opportunities that DOE can address in the coming years by leveraging its unique capabilities and resources.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Molecular characterization of a fungal gasdermin-like protein

Programmed cell death (PCD) in filamentous fungi prevents cytoplasmic mixing following fusion between conspecific genetically distinct individuals (allorecognition) and serves as a defense mechanism against mycoparasitism, genome exploitation, and deleterious cytoplasmic elements (i.e., senescence plasmids). Recently, we identified regulator of cell death-1 ( rcd-1 ), a gene controlling PCD in germinated asexual spores in the filamentous fungus Neurospora crassa . rcd-1 alleles are highly polymorphic and fall into two haplogroups in N. crassa populations. Coexpression of alleles from the two haplogroups, rcd-1–1 and rcd-1–2 , is necessary and sufficient to trigger a cell death reaction. Here, we investigated the molecular bases of rcd-1 -dependent cell death. Based on in silico analyses, we found that RCD-1 is a remote homolog of the N-terminal pore-forming domain of gasdermin, the executioner protein of a highly inflammatory cell death reaction termed pyroptosis, which plays a key role in mammalian innate immunity. We show that RCD-1 localizes to the cell periphery and that cellular localization of RCD-1 was correlated with conserved positively charged residues on predicted amphipathic α-helices, as shown for murine gasdermin-D. Similar to gasdermin, RCD-1 binds acidic phospholipids in vitro, notably, cardiolipin and phosphatidylserine, and interacts with liposomes containing such lipids. The RCD-1 incompatibility system was reconstituted in human 293T cells, where coexpression of incompatible rcd-1–1/rcd-1–2 alleles triggered pyroptotic-like cell death. Oligomers of RCD-1 were associated with the cell death reaction, further supporting the evolutionary relationship between gasdermin and rcd-1 . This report documents an ancient transkingdom relationship of cell death execution modules involved in organismal defense.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗