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NASA NTRS2008

MISR Instrument Data Visualization

The MISR Interactive eXplorer (MINX) software functions both as a general-purpose tool to visualize Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument data, and as a specialized tool to analyze properties of smoke, dust, and volcanic plumes. It includes high-level options to create map views of MISR orbit locations; scrollable, single-camera RGB (red-greenblue) images of MISR level 1B2 (L1B2) radiance data; and animations of the nine MISR camera images that provide a 3D perspective of the scenes that MISR has acquired. NASA Tech Briefs, September 2008 55 The plume height capability provides an accurate estimate of the injection height of plumes that is needed by air quality and climate modelers. MISR provides global high-quality stereo height information, and this program uses that information to perform detailed height retrievals of aerosol plumes. Users can interactively digitize smoke, dust, or volcanic plumes and automatically retrieve heights and winds, and can also archive MISR albedos and aerosol properties, as well as fire power and brightness temperatures associated with smoke plumes derived from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Some of the specialized options in MINX enable the user to do other tasks. Users can display plots of top-of-atmosphere bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) versus camera-angle for selected pixels. Images and animations can be saved to disk in various formats. Also, users can apply a geometric registration correction to warp camera images when the standard processing correction is inadequate. It is possible to difference the images of two MISR orbits that share a path (identical ground track), as well as to construct pseudo-color images by assigning different combinations of MISR channels (angle or spectral band) to the RGB display channels. This software is an interactive application written in IDL and compiled into an IDL Virtual Machine (VM) ".sav" file.

Nelson, David↗

NASA NTRS1994

Does human cognition allow Human Factors (HF) certification of advanced aircrew systems?

This paper has examined the requirements of HF specification and certification within advanced or complex aircrew systems. It suggests reasons for current inadequacies in the use of HF in the design process, giving some examples in support, and suggesting an avenue towards the improvement of the HF certification process. The importance of human cognition to the operation and performance of advanced aircrew systems has been stressed. Many of the shortfalls of advanced aircrew systems must be attributed to over automated designs that show little consideration on either the mental limits or the cognitive capabilities of the human system component. Traditional approaches to system design and HF certification are set within an over physicalistic foundation. Also, traditionally it was assumed that physicalistic system functions could be attributed to either the human or the machine on a one to one basis. Moreover, any problems associated with the parallel needs, or promoting human understanding alongside system operation and direction, were generally equated in reality by the natural flexibility and adaptability of human skills. The consideration of the human component of a complex system is seen as being primarily based on manifestations of human behavior to the almost total exclusion of any appreciation of unobservable human mental and cognitive processes. The argument of this paper is that the considered functionality of any complex human-machine system must contain functions that are purely human and purely cognitive. Human-machine system reliability ultimately depends on human reliability and dependability and, therefore, on the form and frequency of cognitive processes that have to be conducted to support system performance. The greater the demand placed by an advanced aircraft system on the human component's basic knowledge processes or cognition, rather than on skill, the more insiduous the effects the human may have on that system. This paper discusses one example of an attempt to devise an improved method of specificaiton and certification with relation to the advanced aircrew system, that of the RN Merlin helicopter. The method is realized to have limitations in practice, these mainly associated with the late production of the system specification in relation to the system development process. The need for a careful appreciation of the capabilities and support needs of human cognition within the design process of a complex man machine system has been argued, especially with relation to the concept of system functionality. Unlike the physicalistic Fitts list, a new classification of system functionality is proposed, namely: (1) equipment - system equipment related; (2) cognitive - human cognition related; and (3) associated - necessary combinatin of equipment and cognitive. This paper has not proposed a method for a fuller consideration of cognition within systems design, but has suggested the need for such a method and indicated an avenue towards its development. Finally, the HF certification of advanced aircrew systems is seen as only being possible in a qualified sense until the important functions of human cognition are considered within the system design process. (This paper contains the opinions of its authors and does not necessarily refledt the standpoint of their respective organizations).

Macleod, Iain S.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Two-dimensional high temperature strain measurement system

Two-dimensional optical strain measurements on high temperature test specimens are presented. This two-dimensional capability is implemented through a rotatable sensitive strain axis. Three components of surface strain can be measured automatically, from which the first and second principal strains are calculated. One- and two-dimensional strain measurements at temperatures beyond 750 C with a resolution of 15 microstrain are demonstrated. The system is based on a one-dimensional speckle shift technique. The speckle shift technique makes use of the linear relationship between surface strain and the differential shift of laser speckle patterns in the diffraction plane. Laser speckle is a phase effect that occurs when spatially coherent light interacts with an optically rough surface. Since speckle is generated by any diffusely reflecting surface, no specimen preparation is needed to obtain a good signal. Testing was done at room temperature on a flat specimen of Inconel 600 mounted in a fatigue testing machine. A load cell measured the stress on the specimen before and after acquiring the speckle data. Strain components were measured at 0 C (parallel to the load axis) and at plus or minus 45 C, and plots indicate the calculated values of the first and second principal strains. The measured values of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio are in good agreement with handbook values. Good linearity of the principal strain moduli at high temperatures indicate precision and stability of the system. However, a systematic error in the high-temperature test setup introduced a scale factor in the slopes of the two-dimensional stress-strain curves. No high temperature effects, however, have been observed to degrade speckle correlation.

Lant, Christian T.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Applications of artificial intelligence to mission planning

The scheduling problem facing NASA-Marshall mission planning is extremely difficult for several reasons. The most critical factor is the computational complexity involved in developing a schedule. The size of the search space is large along some dimensions and infinite along others. It is because of this and other difficulties that many of the conventional operation research techniques are not feasible or inadequate to solve the problems by themselves. Therefore, the purpose is to examine various artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to assist conventional techniques or to replace them. The specific tasks performed were as follows: (1) to identify mission planning applications for object oriented and rule based programming; (2) to investigate interfacing AI dedicated hardware (Lisp machines) to VAX hardware; (3) to demonstrate how Lisp may be called from within FORTRAN programs; (4) to investigate and report on programming techniques used in some commercial AI shells, such as Knowledge Engineering Environment (KEE); and (5) to study and report on algorithmic methods to reduce complexity as related to AI techniques.

Ford, Donnie R.↗

NASA NTRS1982

An evaluation of NASA's program in human factors research: Aircrew-vehicle system interaction

Research in human factors in the aircraft cockpit and a proposed program augmentation were reviewed. The dramatic growth of microprocessor technology makes it entirely feasible to automate increasingly more functions in the aircraft cockpit; the promise of improved vehicle performance, efficiency, and safety through automation makes highly automated flight inevitable. An organized data base and validated methodology for predicting the effects of automation on human performance and thus on safety are lacking and without such a data base and validated methodology for analyzing human performance, increased automation may introduce new risks. Efforts should be concentrated on developing methods and techniques for analyzing man machine interactions, including human workload and prediction of performance.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1996

Performance Evaluation in Network-Based Parallel Computing

Network-based parallel computing is emerging as a cost-effective alternative for solving many problems which require use of supercomputers or massively parallel computers. The primary objective of this project has been to conduct experimental research on performance evaluation for clustered parallel computing. First, a testbed was established by augmenting our existing SUNSPARCs' network with PVM (Parallel Virtual Machine) which is a software system for linking clusters of machines. Second, a set of three basic applications were selected. The applications consist of a parallel search, a parallel sort, a parallel matrix multiplication. These application programs were implemented in C programming language under PVM. Third, we conducted performance evaluation under various configurations and problem sizes. Alternative parallel computing models and workload allocations for application programs were explored. The performance metric was limited to elapsed time or response time which in the context of parallel computing can be expressed in terms of speedup. The results reveal that the overhead of communication latency between processes in many cases is the restricting factor to performance. That is, coarse-grain parallelism which requires less frequent communication between processes will result in higher performance in network-based computing. Finally, we are in the final stages of installing an Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) switch and four ATM interfaces (each 155 Mbps) which will allow us to extend our study to newer applications, performance metrics, and configurations.

Dezhgosha, Kamyar↗

NASA NTRS2011

Seating Considerations for Spaceflight: The Human to Machine Interface

Seating is one of the most critical components to be considered during design of a spacecraft. Since seats are the final interface between the occupant and the vehicle wherein all launch and landing operations are performed, significant effort must be spent to ensure proper integration of the human to the spacecraft. The importance of seating can be divided into two categories: seat layout and seat design. The layout of the seats drives the overall cabin configuration - from displays and controls, to windows, to stowage, to egress paths. Since the layout of the seats is such a critical design parameter within the crew compartment, it is one of the first design challenges that must be completed in the critical path of the spacecraft design. In consideration of seat layout in the vehicle, it is important for the designers to account for often intangible factors such as safety, operability, contingency performance, crew rescue. Seat layout will lead to definition of the quantity, shape, and posture of the seats. The seats of the craft must restrain and protect the occupant in all seated phases of flight, while allowing for nominal mission performance. In design of a spacecraft seat, the general posture of the occupant and the landing loads to be encountered are the greatest drivers of overall design. Variances, such as upright versus recumbent postures will dictate fit of the seat to the occupant and drive the total envelope of the seat around the occupant. Seat design revolves around applying sound principles of seated occupant protection coupled with the unique environments driven by the seat layout, landing loads, and operational and emergency scenarios.

Gohmert, Dustin M.↗

NASA NTRS1994

What to Do Until the Money Runs Out: A Refinement Framework for Cognitive Engineering in the Real World

A case study is presented to illustrate some of the problems of applying cognitive science to complex human-machine systems. Disregard for facts about human cognition often undermines the safety, reliability, and cost-effectiveness of complex systems. Yet single-point methods (for example, better user-interface design), whether rooted in computer science or in experimental psychology, fall far short of addressing systems-level problems in a timely way using realistic resources. A model-based methodology is proposed for organizing and prioritizing the cognitive engineering effort, focusing appropriate expertise on major problems first, then moving to more sophisticated refinements if time and resources permit. This case study is based on a collaborative effort between the Human Factors Division at NASA-Ames and the Spaceborne Imaging Radar SIR-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) Project at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), California institute of Technology. The first SIR-C/X-SAR Shuttle mission flew successfully in April, 1994. A series of such missions is planned to provide radar data to study Earth's ecosystems, climatic and geological processes, hydrologic cycle, and ocean circulation. In addition to JPL and NASA personnel, the SIR-C/X-SAR operations team included Scientists and engineers from the German and Italian space agencies.

Shafto, Michael G.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Holistic Approach to Procedures

Aviation is a dynamic industry which is constantly changing. These changes require the continuous update of people’s knowledge and skills. A fundamental part of that knowledge and skill is procedures, because procedures form the backbone of aviation operations. On the flightdeck, on the ramp, and in the maintenance shop, procedures and checklists help support pilots, line crews, and mechanics in performing their work effectively, efficiently, and thus -- safely. To design effective and efficient procedures and checklists, one must take into account the full operational context within which these procedures are embedded. This context is defined by the requirements of the technology, the capabilities and limitations of the human operators, and the constraints and affordances of the operational environment. The complexity of this context arises from the interactions of the human, machine, and environment. Procedures are in place to govern those interactions. We present a model of that operational context, namely THE Model (Technology, Human, Environment in the context of a Mission), that lays a foundation for the analysis of each of these elements and their interactions. But procedures have their limitations, and there are risks involved in over-proceduralizing. To understand these limitations and risks, and to determine when to proceduralize and when not, we present the 4P Framework (Practice, Procedures, Policies, Philosophy) as a holistic approach to procedures. This approach brings together the understanding of human behavior, of organizational and operational factors, and of the technologies involved.

procedures↗

NASA NTRS1989

Laser-boosted lightcraft technology demonstrator

The ultimate goal for this NASA/USRA-sponsored 'Apollo Lightcraft Project' is to develop a revolutionary manned launch vehicle technology that can potentially reduce payload transport costs by a factor of 1000 below the space shuttle orbiter. The Rensellaer design team proposes to utilize advanced, highly energetic, beamed-energy sources (laser, microwave) and innovative combined-cycle (airbreathing/rocket) engines to accomplish this goal. This year's effort, the detailed description and performance analysis of an unmanned 1.4-m Lightcraft Technology Demonstrator (LTD) drone, is presented. The novel launch system employs a 100-MW-class ground-based laser to transmit power directly to an advanced combined-cycle engine that propels the 120-kg LTD to orbit, with a mass ratio of two. The single-stage-to-orbit (SSTO) LTD machine then becomes an autonomous sensor satellite that can deliver precise, high-quality information typical of today's large orbital platforms. The dominant motivation behind this study is to provide an example of how laser propulsion and its low launch costs can induce a comparable order-of-magnitude reduction in sensor satellite packaging costs. The issue is simply one of production technology for future, survivable SSTO aerospace vehicles that intimately share both laser propulsion engine and satellite functional hardware. A mass production cost goal of 10(exp 3)/kg for the LTD vehicle is probably realizable.

Antonison, M.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Market Survey 2020: Commercial Clinical Decision Support Systems and Wellness Tools

For long-duration, deep space exploration missions, current methods for managing and supporting crew health and medical conditions will be unsuitable. Communication and data transmission lags will necessitate the use of a sophisticated clinical decision support system (CDSS) that will tailor diagnosis and treatment guidance that is context-sensitive for anticipated astronaut health, wellness, and medical conditions. A variety of clinical decision support (CDS) and wellness tools (WT) are currently available in the commercial market and a broad-brush survey of this market can provide an initial impression of the current state of the art which, in turn, can inform the roadmap of NASA deep space CDSS development and associated requirements. Such a survey was undertaken during the first six months of 2020 using directed convenience sampling to obtain information provided by vendors on their websites; both commercially available CDS and WT (such as those used to track and monitor nutrition, exercise, and sleep) were included. Areas assessed were item type (e.g., software/application, device); primary purpose of the item (e.g., diagnostic support, nutrition tracking); additional purposes (if any); reported features, capabilities, and functionality; setting of use (e.g., inpatient, outpatient); intended user (e.g., clinician, patient); location and sources of data/information used or produced by the item; integration with patient electronic health record (EHR); compliance with interoperability ontologies and standards (e.g., Health Level 7 [HL7], Systematized Nomenclature of Medicine – Clinical Terminology [SNOMED-CT]); and whether the item is knowledge-based (derived from research findings) or non-knowledge-based (derived through artificial intelligence, machine learning, advanced probability and statistics), among others. Ninety-seven (97) vendor websites describing 196 CDS and 73 WT (269 total) were reviewed and coded. The primary purpose of the majority of CDS reviewed is diagnosis or diagnosis/treatment/drug decision support—targeted for clinician use— and the primary purpose of the majority of WT reviewed is the monitoring of different health metrics, most often through the use of a biosensor device (e.g., blood pressure)—targeted for patient use. Very few CDS or WT appear to comply with major international interoperability standards or can be integrated with a patient’s EHR data. None consider contextual factors, such as conditions of the physical environment (e.g., CO2 levels). The majority of CDS and WT reviewed are non-knowledge, cloud- or web-based applications or software. Forty-three (43) major findings were identified and the implications those findings have for NASA will be discussed. Example major findings include: CDS-WT capabilities range from diagnosis to treatment applications, CDS-WT may be wearable or non-wearable and are technologically advanced and only a few CDS-WT tools referenced compliance to ensure interoperability, among other findings. Recommendations will also be offered that will help to address ExMC Gap, Medical-701: Enhance medical capabilities within an exploration medical system.

market survey↗

NASA NTRS1993

Turbulence modeling of free shear layers for high performance aircraft

In many flowfield computations, accuracy of the turbulence model employed is frequently a limiting factor in the overall accuracy of the computation. This is particularly true for complex flowfields such as those around full aircraft configurations. Free shear layers such as wakes, impinging jets (in V/STOL applications), and mixing layers over cavities are often part of these flowfields. Although flowfields have been computed for full aircraft, the memory and CPU requirements for these computations are often excessive. Additional computer power is required for multidisciplinary computations such as coupled fluid dynamics and conduction heat transfer analysis. Massively parallel computers show promise in alleviating this situation, and the purpose of this effort was to adapt and optimize CFD codes to these new machines. The objective of this research effort was to compute the flowfield and heat transfer for a two-dimensional jet impinging normally on a cool plate. The results of this research effort were summarized in an AIAA paper titled 'Parallel Implementation of the k-epsilon Turbulence Model'. Appendix A contains the full paper.

Sondak, Douglas↗

NASA NTRS1994

Sub-ply level scaling approach investigated for graphite-epoxy composite beam columns

Scale model graphite-epoxy composite specimens were fabricated using the 'sub-ply level' approach and tested as beam-columns under an eccentric axial load to determine the effect of specimen size on flexural response and failure. In the current research project, although the fiber diameters are not scaled, the thickness of the pre-preg material itself has been scaled by adjusting the number of fibers through the thickness of a single ply. Three different grades of graphite-epoxy composite material (AS4/3502) were obtained from Hercules, Inc., in which the number of fibers through the thickness of a single ply was reduced (Grade 190 with 12 to 16 fibers, Grade 95 with 6 to 8 fibers, and Grade 48 with 3 to 4 fibers). Thus, using the sub-ply level approach, a baseline eight ply quasi-isotropic laminate could be fabricated using either the Grade 48 or Grade 95 material and the corresponding full-scale laminate would be constructed from Grade 95 or standard Grade 190 material, respectively. Note that in the sub-ply level approach, the number of ply interfaces is constant for the baseline and full-scale laminates. This is not true for the ply level and sublaminate level scaled specimens. The three grades of graphite-epoxy composite material were used to fabricate scale model beam-column specimens with in-plane dimensions of 0.5*n x 5.75*n, where n=1,2,4 corresponsing to 1/4, 1/2, and full-scale factors. Angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic laminate stacking sequences were chosen for the investigation and the test matrices for each laminate type are given. Specimens in each laminate family with the same in-plane dimensions but different thicknesses were tested to isolate the influence of the thickness dimension on the flexural response and failure. Also, specific lay-ups were chosen with blocked plies and dispersed plies for each laminate type. Specimens were subjected to an eccentric axial load until failure. The load offset was introduced through a set of hinges which were attached to the platens of a standard load test machine. Three sets of geometrically scaled hinges were used to ensure that scaled loading conditions were applied. This loading condition was chosen because it promotes large flexural deformations and specimens fail at the center of the beam, away from the grip supports. Five channels of data including applied vertical load, end shortening displacement, strain from gages applied back-to-back at the midspan of the beam, and rotation of the hinge from a bubble inclinometer were recorded for each specimen. The beam-column test configuration was used previously to study size effects in ply level scaled composite specimens of the same material system, sizes, and stacking sequences. Thus, a direct comparison between the two scaling approaches is possible. Ply level scaled beam-columns with angle ply, cross ply, and quasi-isotropic lay-ups exhibited no size dependencies in the flexural response, but significant size effects in strength. The reduction in strength with increasing specimen size was not predicted successfully by analysis techniques. It is anticipated that results from this investigation will lead to a better understanding of the strength scale effect in composite structures.

Jackson, Karen E.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stepwise Regression Analysis of MDOE Balance Calibration Data Acquired at DNW

This paper reports a comparison of two experiment design methods applied in the calibration of a strain-gage balance. One features a 734-point test matrix in which loads are varied systematically according to a method commonly applied in aerospace research and known in the literature of experiment design as One Factor At a Time (OFAT) testing. Two variations of an alternative experiment design were also executed on the same balance, each with different features of an MDOE experiment design. The Modern Design of Experiments (MDOE) is an integrated process of experiment design, execution, and analysis applied at NASA's Langley Research Center to achieve significant reductions in cycle time, direct operating cost, and experimental uncertainty in aerospace research generally and in balance calibration experiments specifically. Personnel in the Instrumentation and Controls Department of the German Dutch Wind Tunnels (DNW) have applied MDOE methods to evaluate them in the calibration of a balance using an automated calibration machine. The data have been sent to Langley Research Center for analysis and comparison. This paper reports key findings from this analysis. The chief result is that a 100-point calibration exploiting MDOE principles delivered quality comparable to a 700+ point OFAT calibration with significantly reduced cycle time and attendant savings in direct and indirect costs. While the DNW test matrices implemented key MDOE principles and produced excellent results, additional MDOE concepts implemented in balance calibrations at Langley Research Center are also identified and described.

DeLoach, RIchard↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA Tech Briefs, March 2010

Topics covered include: Software Tool Integrating Data Flow Diagrams and Petri Nets; Adaptive Nulling for Interferometric Detection of Planets; Reducing the Volume of NASA Earth-Science Data; Reception of Multiple Telemetry Signals via One Dish Antenna; Space-Qualified Traveling-Wave Tube; Smart Power Supply for Battery-Powered Systems; Parallel Processing of Broad-Band PPM Signals; Inexpensive Implementation of Many Strain Gauges; Constant-Differential-Pressure Two-Fluid Accumulator; Inflatable Tubular Structures Rigidized with Foams; Power Generator with Thermo-Differential Modules; Mechanical Extraction of Power From Ocean Currents and Tides; Nitrous Oxide/Paraffin Hybrid Rocket Engines; Optimized Li-Ion Electrolytes Containing Fluorinated Ester Co-Solvents; Probabilistic Multi-Factor Interaction Model for Complex Material Behavior; Foldable Instrumented Bits for Ultrasonic/Sonic Penetrators; Compact Rare Earth Emitter Hollow Cathode; High-Precision Shape Control of In-Space Deployable Large Membrane/Thin-Shell Reflectors; Rapid Active Sampling Package; Miniature Lightweight Ion Pump; Cryogenic Transport of High-Pressure-System Recharge Gas; Water-Vapor Raman Lidar System Reaches Higher Altitude; Compact Ku-Band T/R Module for High-Resolution Radar Imaging of Cold Land Processes; Wide-Field-of-View, High-Resolution, Stereoscopic Imager; Electrical Capacitance Volume Tomography with High-Contrast Dielectrics; Wavefront Control and Image Restoration with Less Computing; Polarization Imaging Apparatus; Stereoscopic Machine-Vision System Using Projected Circles; Metal Vapor Arcing Risk Assessment Tool; Performance Bounds on Two Concatenated, Interleaved Codes; Parameterizing Coefficients of a POD-Based Dynamical System; Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition; Algorithm for Lossless Compression of Calibrated Hyperspectral Imagery; Universal Decoder for PPM of any Order; Algorithm for Stabilizing a POD-Based Dynamical System; Mission Reliability Estimation for Repairable Robot Teams; Processing AIRS Scientific Data Through Level 3; Web-Based Requesting and Scheduling Use of Facilities; AutoGen Version 5.0; Time-Tag Generation Script; PPM Receiver Implemented in Software; Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer Product File Readers; Reporting Differences Between Spacecraft Sequence Files; Coordinating "Execute" Data for ISS and Space Shuttle; Database for Safety-Oriented Tracking of Chemicals; Apparatus for Cold, Pressurized Biogeochemical Experiments; Growing B Lymphocytes in a Three-Dimensional Culture System; Tissue-like 3D Assemblies of Human Broncho-Epithelial Cells; Isolation of Resistance-Bearing Microorganisms; Oscillating Cell Culture Bioreactor; and Liquid Cooling/Warming Garment.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Human Interfaces and Management of Information (HIMI) Challenges for “In-time” Aviation Safety Management Systems (IASMS)

The envisioned transformation of the National Airspace System to integrate an In-time Aviation Safety Management System(IASMS)to assure safety in Advanced Air Mobility(AAM)brings unprecedented challenges to the design of human interfaces and management of safety information. Safety in design and operational safety assurance are critical factors for how humans will interact with increasingly autonomous systems. The IASMS Concept of Operations builds from traditional commercial operator safety management and scales in complexity to AAM. The transformative changes in future aviation systems pose potential new critical safety risks with novel types of aircraft and other vehicles having different performance capabilities, flying in increasingly complex airspace, and using adaptive contingencies to manage normal and non-normal operations. These changes compel development of new and emerging capabilities that enable innovative ways for humans to interact with data and manage information. In-creasing complexity of AAM corresponds with use of predictive modeling, data analytics, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to effectively address known hazards and emergent risks. The roles of humans will dynamically evolve in increments with this technological and operational evolution. The interfaces for how humans will interact with increasingly complex and assured systems designed to operate autonomously and how information will need to be presented are important challenges to be resolved.

Lawrence J Prinzel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a rapidly growing and evolving discipline, especially within the aerospace community. Performing analysis with UQ can provide decision makers with a wealth of information about a candidate design. However, the value of UQ is fully realized when the information gained during UQ analysis is leveraged in a feedback loop of a design optimization process, often referred to as design under uncertainty. Although design under uncertainty can be a powerful risk mitigation technique, there are a number of roadblocks that prevent its implementation. Two primary factors are computational costs and added complexity of the analysis. High fidelity simulations on the order tens of uncertain variables quickly become computationally infeasible. Also, implementing UQ into an existing multidisciplinary design and optimization (MDO) process often requires extensive knowledge of the UQ methods and careful treatment of the problem formulation. The objective of this work is to address these two primary roadblocks and enable practitioners to efficiently perform design under uncertainty with limited knowledge of the UQ discipline. Methods outlined in this paper demonstrate MDO incorporating UQ into the design process, leveraging an analytic derivative tool chain through the entire optimization. The proposed approach leverages machine learning techniques to generate a differentiable confidence interval output from polynomial chaos models. This technique, coupled with the incorporation of analytical derivatives through the Polynomial Chaos Expansion (PCE) process, eliminates the need to estimate derivatives which are usually obtained from finite difference, complex step, or similar methods. Developing a differentiable confidence interval allows mixed uncertainty problems (both epistemic and aleatory) to be modeled. Without such modeling, these problems cannot accurately predict objective functions containing statistical quantities such as mean and variance. The addition of analytic derivatives to a polynomial chaos-based UQ method decreases the computational costs of performing design under uncertainty by orders of magnitude in comparison with methods such as complex step. The method and codes developed are modular in nature and are a drop-in solution for design under uncertainty within existing MDO problems. A low-fidelity analytical multidisciplinary optimization under uncertainty for a wing design in OpenMDAO is detailed in this paper. This demonstration case will include both objective functions and constraints which are influenced by uncertain parameters.

Ben D Phillips↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

End-To-End Uncertainty Quantification with Analytical Derivatives for Design Under Uncertainty

Ben Phillips↗