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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Multi-Dimensional Measurements of Combustion Species in Flame Tube and Sector Gas Turbine Combustors

The higher temperature and pressure cycles of future aviation gas turbine combustors challenge designers to produce combustors that minimize their environmental impact while maintaining high operation efficiency. The development of low emissions combustors includes the reduction of unburned hydrocarbons, smoke, and particulates, as well as the reduction of oxides of nitrogen (NO(x)). In order to better understand and control the mechanisms that produce emissions, tools are needed to aid the development of combustor hardware. Current methods of measuring species within gas turbine combustors use extractive sampling of combustion gases to determine major species concentrations and to infer the bulk flame temperature. These methods cannot be used to measure unstable combustion products and have poor spatial and temporal resolution. The intrusive nature of gas sampling may also disturb the flow structure within a combustor. Planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) is an optical technique for the measurement of combustion species. In addition to its non-intrusive nature, PLIF offers these advantages over gas sampling: high spatial resolution, high temporal resolution, the ability to measure unstable species, and the potential to measure combustion temperature. This thesis considers PLIF for in-situ visualization of combustion species as a tool for the design and evaluation of gas turbine combustor subcomponents. This work constitutes the first application of PLIF to the severe environment found in liquid-fueled, aviation gas turbine combustors. Technical and applied challenges are discussed. PLIF of OH was used to observe the flame structure within the post flame zone of a flame tube combustor, and within the flame zone of a sector combustor, for a variety of fuel injector configurations. OH was selected for measurement because it is a major combustion intermediate, playing a key role in the chemistry of combustion, and because its presence within the flame zone can serve as a qualitative marker of flame temperature. All images were taken in the environment of actual engines during flight, using actual jet fuel. The results of the PLIF study led directly to the modification of a fuel injector.

Hicks, Yolanda Royce↗
NASA NTRS2010

Using Whispering-Gallery-Mode Resonators for Refractometry

A method of determining the refractive and absorptive properties of optically transparent materials involves a combination of theoretical and experimental analysis of electromagnetic responses of whispering-gallery-mode (WGM) resonator disks made of those materials. The method was conceived especially for use in studying transparent photorefractive materials, for which purpose this method affords unprecedented levels of sensitivity and accuracy. The method is expected to be particularly useful for measuring temporally varying refractive and absorptive properties of photorefractive materials at infrared wavelengths. Still more particularly, the method is expected to be useful for measuring drifts in these properties that are so slow that, heretofore, the properties were assumed to be constant. The basic idea of the method is to attempt to infer values of the photorefractive properties of a material by seeking to match (1) theoretical predictions of the spectral responses (or selected features thereof) of a WGM of known dimensions made of the material with (2) the actual spectral responses (or selected features thereof). Spectral features that are useful for this purpose include resonance frequencies, free spectral ranges (differences between resonance frequencies of adjacently numbered modes), and resonance quality factors (Q values). The method has been demonstrated in several experiments, one of which was performed on a WGM resonator made from a disk of LiNbO3 doped with 5 percent of MgO. The free spectral range of the resonator was approximately equal to 3.42 GHz at wavelengths in the vicinity of 780 nm, the smallest full width at half maximum of a mode was approximately equal to 50 MHz, and the thickness of the resonator in the area of mode localization was 30 microns. In the experiment, laser power of 9 mW was coupled into the resonator with an efficiency of 75 percent, and the laser was scanned over a frequency band 9 GHz wide at a nominal wavelength of approximately equal to 780 nm. Resonance frequencies were measured as functions of time during several hours of exposure to the laser light. The results of these measurements, plotted in the figure, show a pronounced collective frequency drift of the resonator modes. The size of the drift has been estimated to correspond to a change of 8.5 x 10(exp -5) in the effective ordinary index of refraction of the resonator material.

Matsko, Andrey↗
DOE OSTI2023

Photometry of Outer Solar System Objects from the Dark Energy Survey. I. Photometric Methods, Light-curve Distributions, and Trans-Neptunian Binaries

We report the methods of and initial scientific inferences from the extraction of precision photometric information for the >800 trans-Neptunian objects (TNOs) discovered in the images of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). Scene-modeling photometry is used to obtain shot-noise-limited flux measures for each exposure of each TNO, with background sources subtracted. Comparison of double-source fits to the pixel data with single-source fits are used to identify and characterize two binary TNO systems. A Markov Chain Monte Carlo method samples the joint likelihood of the intrinsic colors of each source as well as the amplitude of its flux variation, given the time series of multiband flux measurements and their uncertainties. A catalog of these colors and light-curve amplitudes A is included with this publication. We show how to assign a likelihood to the distribution q(A) of light-curve amplitudes in any subpopulation. Using this method, we find decisive evidence (i.e., evidence ratio <0.01) that cold classical (CC) TNOs with absolute magnitude 6 < H$_{r}$ < 8.2 are more variable than the hot classical (HC) population of the same H$_{r}$, reinforcing theories that the former form in situ and the latter arise from a different physical population. Resonant and scattering TNOs in this H$_{r}$ range have variability consistent with either the HCs or CCs. DES TNOs with H$_{r}$ < 6 are seen to be decisively less variable than higher-H$_{r}$ members of any dynamical group, as expected. More surprising is that detached TNOs are decisively less variable than scattering TNOs, which requires them to have distinct source regions or some subsequent differential processing.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1999

Damage Tolerance and Reliability of Turbine Engine Components

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Probabilistic Methods for Structural Design and Reliability

This report describes a formal method to quantify structural damage tolerance and reliability in the presence of a multitude of uncertainties in turbine engine components. The method is based at the material behavior level where primitive variables with their respective scatter ranges are used to describe behavior. Computational simulation is then used to propagate the uncertainties to the structural scale where damage tolerance and reliability are usually specified. Several sample cases are described to illustrate the effectiveness, versatility, and maturity of the method. Typical results from this method demonstrate, that it is mature and that it can be used to probabilistically evaluate turbine engine structural components. It may be inferred from the results that the method is suitable for probabilistically predicting the remaining life in aging or in deteriorating structures, for making strategic projections and plans, and for achieving better, cheaper, faster products that give competitive advantages in world markets.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Lift & Learn: Physics-informed machine learning for large-scale nonlinear dynamical systems

In this work, we present Lift & Learn, a physics-informed method for learning low-dimensional models for large-scale dynamical systems. The method exploits knowledge of a system’s governing equations to identify a coordinate transformation in which the system dynamics have quadratic structure. This transformation is called a lifting map because it often adds auxiliary variables to the system state. The lifting map is applied to data obtained by evaluating a model for the original nonlinear system. This lifted data is projected onto its leading principal components, and low-dimensional linear and quadratic matrix operators are fit to the lifted reduced data using a least-squares operator inference procedure. Analysis of our method shows that the Lift & Learn models are able to capture the system physics in the lifted coordinates at least as accurately as traditional intrusive model reduction approaches. This preservation of system physics makes the Lift & Learn models robust to changes in inputs. Numerical experiments on the FitzHugh–Nagumo neuron activation model and the compressible Euler equations demonstrate the generalizability of our model.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A simplified approach for creep damage and remaining life calculation for materials surveillance in advanced reactors

High temperature reactor materials will experience a combination of mechanical degradation caused by creep and fatigue and environmental degradation caused by neutron irradiation and, in some cases, exposure to corrosive coolants. A materials surveillance program is one option for ensuring the safe, reliable operation of key reactor components under these conditions. Such a program would monitor the degradation in key material properties over time, using this data to predict how changes in the material properties affect components performance. This could then be used to make plant operational decisions and support eventual plant license extensions. Past work de-scribes such a material surveillance program based on passively actuated mechanical test articles that impose creep-fatigue type loading on test materials driven only by changes in temperature, for example those experienced by components under standard operating cycles. This report focuses on two aspects of the proposed material surveillance program: how to design the test articles to mimic the mechanical response of the corresponding component and how to use ex-situ test data to deter-mine the amount of damaged experienced by the test article (and hence the corresponding compo-nent) in service. Specifically, this report derives and validated simplified methods for both tasks, replacing earlier, more complicated approaches based on simulating the test article response and finding the best specimen design or current damage via complex numerical optimization. The sim-plified methods for each task developed here can be implemented in spreadsheet software and are simple enough for practical use in future operating plants. This report derives the methods (one for sizing and two options for damage inference), verifies the simplified approaches versus more so-phisticated methods, and compares the results of applying the simplified methods to previous re-sults using the complex numerical optimization approach. The report also provides a worked sam-pled problem applying the simplified techniques to a realistic high temperature reactor component.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1990

Cloud altitude determination from infrared spectral radiances

The CO2 slicing method is generally recognized as the most accurate means of inferring cloud altitude from passive infrared radiance observations. The method is applicable to semi-transparent and broken clouds. During the cirrus FIRE and COHMEX field experiments, CO2 channel radiance data suitable for cloud altitude specification were achieved from moderate spectral resolution satellite sounders (NOAA-TOVS and GOES-VAS) and from a High spectral resolution Interferometer Spectrometer (HIS) flown on the NASA U2/ER2 aircraft. Also aboard the ER2 was a down-looking active lidar unit capable of providing cloud top pressure verifications with high accuracy. A third instrument, the Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) provided 50 meter resolution infrared window data which is used wtih radiosonde data to verify the heights of middle and low level clouds. Comparisons of lidar and MAMS/radiosonde ground truth cloud heights are made with those determined from: high resolution (0.5/cm) HIS spectra, HIS spectra degraded to the moderate resolution (15/cm) of the VAS/TOVS instruments, and spectrally averaged HIS radiances for individual pairs of VAS spectral channels. The results show that the best results are achieved from high resolution spectra; the RMS difference with the ground truth is 23 mb. The RMS differences between the infrared radiance determination and ground truth increase by 35 percent when the spectral resolution is degraded to the moderate spectral resolution of the VAS/TOVS instruments and by 52 to 183 percent, depending upon channel combinations, when only two spectral channels at VAS/TOVS spectral resolution are used.

Smith, William L.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winners are not keepers: Characterizing household engagement, gains, and energy patterns in demand response using machine learning in the United States

Demand-response programs can help utilities manage rapidly evolving electric grids, but these programs are subject to the complexities of human behavior. This paper explores a novel method for uncovering heterogeneity in households. In this work, we use a machine-learning method known as a Conditional Inference Tree (c-tree) algorithm to categorize households based on their energy behavior characteristics collected via smart meters, and explore how this translates through into heterogeneity in their real-world response to a DR program. Using data from randomized controlled trial, we generate estimates of the changes in energy use caused by the program within each household group. Our results show that the c-tree approach differentiates households by their energy-use characteristics in a way that increases the spread in enrollment rates and critical peak reduction among household groups, compared with the spreads achieved via several conventional segmentation methods. Thus, the c-tree analysis enables the most tailored targeting of major potential energy savers and could provide the greatest increase in cost-effectiveness of household recruitment into DR programs. Our results also offer fresh insights into the relationships between household energy behavior characteristics – such as peak energy use and “structural winningness” (the ability to save money under a DR program without changing energy-use behaviors) – and household decisions about enrolling in DR programs and reducing energy use. Our research also demonstrates the potential of smart meter data, combined with machine learning and econometric methods, to provide significant value to utilities, program implementers, researchers, and other stakeholders.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1999

Spectral Gradients and u-v Sampling

I describe a systematic method for characterizing the effects of differences in u-v coverage in terms of inferred spectral gradients in interferometric images. This method is directly applicable to optical and radio interferometry; it is useful in situations when observations using scale arrays are not feasible.

u-v sampling spectral gradients interferometric im↗
DOE OSTI2018

Classification of Reactor Facility Operational State Using SPRT Methods with Radiation Sensor Networks

We consider the problem of inferring the operational state of a reactor facility by using measurements from a radiation sensor network, which is deployed around the facility’s ventilation stack. The radiation emissions from the stack decay with distance, and the corresponding measurements are inherently random with parameters determined by radiation intensity levels at the sensor locations. We fuse measurements from network sensors to estimate the intensity at the stack, and use this estimate in a one-sided Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to infer the on/off state of the reactor facility. We demonstrate the superior performance of this method over conventional majority vote fusers and individual sensors using (i) test measurements from a network of NaI sensors, and (ii) emulated measurements using radioactive effluents collected at a reactor facility stack. We analytically quantify the performance improvements of individual sensors and their networks with adaptive thresholds over those with fixed ones, by using the packing number of the radiation intensity space.

Ramirez Aviles, Camila A.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Multi-Modal Bayesian Neural Network Surrogates with Conjugate Last-Layer Estimation

As data collection and simulation capabilities advance, multi-modal learning, the task of learning from multiple modalities and sources of data, is becoming an increasingly important area of research. Surrogate models that learn from data of multiple auxiliary modalities to support the modeling of a highly expensive quantity of interest have the potential to aid outer loop applications such as optimization, inverse problems, or sensitivity analyses when multi-modal data are available. We develop two multi-modal Bayesian neural network surrogate models and leverage conditionally conjugate distributions in the last layer to estimate model parameters using stochastic variational inference (SVI). We provide a method to perform this conjugate SVI estimation in the presence of partially missing observations. Here, we demonstrate improved prediction accuracy and uncertainty quantification compared to unimodal surrogate models for both scalar and time series data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring subhalo effective density slopes from strong lensing observations with neural likelihood-ratio estimation

ABSTRACT Strong gravitational lensing has emerged as a promising approach for probing dark matter (DM) models on sub-galactic scales. Recent work has proposed the subhalo effective density slope as a more reliable observable than the commonly used subhalo mass function. The subhalo effective density slope is a measurement independent of assumptions about the underlying density profile and can be inferred for individual subhaloes through traditional sampling methods. To go beyond individual subhalo measurements, we leverage recent advances in machine learning and introduce a neural likelihood-ratio estimator to infer an effective density slope for populations of subhaloes. We demonstrate that our method is capable of harnessing the statistical power of multiple subhaloes (within and across multiple images) to distinguish between characteristics of different subhalo populations. The computational efficiency warranted by the neural likelihood-ratio estimator over traditional sampling enables statistical studies of DM perturbers and is particularly useful as we expect an influx of strong lensing systems from upcoming surveys.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian time-varying occupancy model for West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada

Occupancy models determine the true presence or absence of a species by adjusting for imperfect detection in surveys. They often assume that species presences can be detected only if sites are occupied during a sampling season. We extended these models to estimate occupancy rates that vary throughout a sampling season as well as account for spatial dependence among sites. For these methods, we constructed a fast Gibbs sampler with the Pólya-Gamma augmentation strategy to conduct inference on covariate effects. We applied these methods to evaluate how environmental conditions and surveillance practices are associated with the presence of West Nile virus in mosquito traps across Ontario, Canada from 2002 to 2017. We found that urban land cover and warm temperatures drove viral occupancy, whereas viral testing on pools with higher proportions of Culex mosquitoes was more likely to result in a positive test for West Nile virus. Models with time-varying occupancy effects achieved much lower Watanabe-Akaike information criteria than models without such effects. Our final model had strong predictive performance on test data that included some of the most extreme seasons, demonstrating the promise of these methods in the study of pathogens spread by mosquito vectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Precision Measurement of the Microwave Dielectric Loss of Sapphire in the Quantum Regime with Parts-per-Billion Sensitivity

Dielectric loss is known to limit state-of-the-art superconducting qubit lifetimes. Recent experiments imply upper bounds on bulk dielectric loss tangents on the order of 100 parts per billion but because these inferences are drawn from fully fabricated devices with many loss channels, these experiments do not definitely implicate or exonerate the dielectric. To resolve this ambiguity, we devise a measurement method capable of separating and resolving bulk dielectric loss with a sensitivity at the level of 5 ×10 –9 . The method, which we call the dielectric dipper, involves the in situ insertion of a dielectric sample into a high-quality microwave cavity mode. Smoothly varying the participation of the sample in the cavity mode enables a differential measurement of the dielectric loss tangent of the sample. The dielectric dipper can probe the low-power behavior of dielectrics at cryogenic temperatures and does so without the need for any lithographic process, enabling controlled comparisons of substrate materials and processing techniques. We demonstrate the method with measurements of sapphire grown by edge-defined film-fed growth (EFG) in comparison to high-grade sapphire grown by the heat-exchanger method (HEMEX). For EFG sapphire, we infer a bulk loss tangent of 63⁢(8) ×10 –9 and a substrate-air interface loss tangent of 15⁢(3) ×10 –4 (assuming a sample surface thickness of 3 nm). For a typical transmon, this bulk loss tangent would limit device quality factors to Q ≲20 ×10 6 , suggesting that bulk loss is likely the dominant loss mechanism in the longest-lived transmons on sapphire. We also demonstrate this method on HEMEX sapphire and bound its bulk loss tangent to be less than 19⁢(6) ×10 –9 . As this bound is about 3 times smaller than the bulk loss tangent of EFG sapphire, the use of HEMEX sapphire as a substrate would lift the bulk dielectric coherence limit of a typical transmon qubit to several milliseconds.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparative Study of Wind Energy Potential Estimation Methods for Wind Sites in Togo and Benin (West Sub-Saharan Africa)

The characterization of wind speed distribution and the optimal assessment of wind energy potential are critical factors in selecting a suitable site for wind power plants (WPP). The Weibull distribution law has been used extensively to analyze the wind characteristics of candidate WPP sites, and to estimate the available and deliverable energy. This paper presents a comparative study of five wind energy resource assessment methods as they applied to the context of wind sites in West Sub-Saharan Africa. We investigated three numerical approaches, namely, the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), the multilayer perceptron method (MLP), and support vector regression (SVR), to derive the distribution law of wind speeds and to optimally quantify the corresponding wind energy potential. Next, we compared these three approaches to two well-known Weibull distribution law-based methods: the empirical method of Justus (EMJ) and the maximum likelihood method (MLM). Case study results indicated that the neural network-based methods, ANFIS and MLP, yielded the most accurate distribution fits and wind energy potential estimates, and consequently, are the most recommended methods for the wind sites in Togo and Benin. The orders of magnitude of the root mean squared error (RMSE) in estimating the recoverable energy using ANFIS were, respectively, 10-4 and 10-5 for Lomé and Cotonou, while MLP achieved an RMSE order of magnitude of 10-3 for both sites.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2020

Characterization of partially observed epidemics through Bayesian inference: application to COVID-19

We demonstrate a Bayesian method for the "real-time'" characterization and forecasting of partially observed COVID-19 epidemic. Characterization is the estimation of infection spread parameters using daily counts of symptomatic patients.The method is designed to help guide medical resource allocation in the early epoch of the outbreak. The estimation problem is posed as one of Bayesian inference and solved using a Markov chain Monte Carlo technique. The data used in this study was sourced before the arrival of the second wave of infection in July 2020. The proposed modeling approach, when applied at the country level, generally provides accurate forecasts at the regional, state and country level. The epidemiological model detected the flattening of the curve in California, after public health measures were instituted.The method also detected different disease dynamics when applied to specific region of New Mexico

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗