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Results for “likelihood estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1993

Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer deep survey observations of a large flare on AU Microscopii

We have made the first extended observation of a stellar flare in the EUV with 100 s time resolution. The flare was detected on AU Mic by the Extreme Ultraviolet Explorer satellite at 12:38 UT on 1992 July 15 during a 4 d observation from 1992 July 14 to 18. This was a large flare detected in the Lexan/boron (65-190 A) band with an observed peak count rate of 7.0 +/- 0.5 counts/s, corresponding to a peak luminosity of 10 exp 30 erg/s in the Lexan/boron bandpass. This is significantly above the measured quiescent level of 0.4 +/- 0.2 counts/s. The flare consisted of a sharp peak lasting about 2 hr, followed by a decaying tail that lasted more than a day. The total EUV energy of the event is estimated to be 3 x 10 exp 34 ergs. A second, smaller flare was also observed and is described. We conclude that the large emission measures on order of 6 x 10 exp 53/cu cm are due to large volumes with characteristic length scales of order the stellar radius. We compare these EUV observations with stellar flare observations in other bandpasses and estimate the likelihood of seeing similar flares in future observations.

Cully, Scott L.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Multiple-Symbol, Partially Coherent Detection of MPSK

Proposed method of reception of multiple-phase-shift-keyed (MPSK) radio signals involves multiple-symbol, partially coherent detection. Instead of attempting to determine phase of transmitted signal during each symbol period as in coherent detection, receiver acquires signal data during multiple-symbol observation interval, then produces maximum-likelihood-sequence estimate of phases transmitted during interval. Combination of coherent-reception and incoherent-reception decision rules are used.

Simon, Marvin K.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Pseudo-coherent demodulation for mobile satellite systems

This paper proposes three so-called pseudo-coherent demodulation schemes for use in land mobile satellite channels. The schemes are derived based on maximum likelihood (ML) estimation and detection of an N-symbol observation of the received signal. Simulation results for all three demodulators are presented to allow comparison with the performance of differential PSK (DPSK) and ideal coherent demodulation for various system parameter sets of practical interest.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparison of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar performance

The performance of 2- and 10-micron coherent Doppler lidar is presented in terms of the statistical distribution of the maximum-likelihood velocity estimator from simulations for fixed range resolution and fixed velocity search space as a function of the number of coherent photoelectrons per estimate. The wavelength dependence of the aerosol backscatter coefficient, the detector quantum efficiency, and the atmospheric extinction produce a simple shift of the performance curves. Results are presented for a typical boundary layer measurement and a space-based measurement for two regimes: the pulse-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the transmitted pulse, and the atmospheric-dominated regime where the signal statistics are determined by the velocity fluctuations over the range gate. The optimal choice of wavelength depends on the problem under consideration.

Frehlich, Rod↗
NASA NTRS2000

An Adaptive Buddy Check for Observational Quality Control

An adaptive buddy check algorithm is presented that adjusts tolerances for outlier observations based on the variability of surrounding data. The algorithm derives from a statistical hypothesis test combined with maximum-likelihood covariance estimation. Its stability is shown to depend on the initial identification of outliers by a simple background check. The adaptive feature ensures that the final quality control decisions are not very sensitive to prescribed statistics of first-guess and observation errors, nor on other approximations introduced into the algorithm. The implementation of the algorithm in a global atmospheric data assimilation is described. Its performance is contrasted with that of a non-adaptive buddy check, for the surface analysis of an extreme storm that took place in Europe on 27 December 1999. The adaptive algorithm allowed the inclusion of many important observations that differed greatly from the first guess and that would have been excluded on the basis of prescribed statistics. The analysis of the storm development was much improved as a result of these additional observations.

Dee, Dick P.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Prediction of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction using transesophageal echocardiography

Identification of thrombus-related mechanical prosthetic valve dysfunction (MPVD) has important therapeutic implications. We sought to develop an algorithm, combining clinical and echocardiographic parameters, for prediction of thrombus-related MPVD in a series of 53 patients (24 men, age 52 +/- 16 years) who had intraoperative diagnosis of thrombus or pannus from 1992 to 1997. Clinical and echocardiographic parameters were analyzed to identify predictors of thrombus and pannus. Prevalence of thrombus and diagnostic yields relative to the number of predictors were determined. There were 22 patients with thrombus, 19 patients with pannus, and 12 patients with both. Forty-two of 53 masses were visualized using transesophageal echocardiography (TEE), including 29 of 34 thrombi or both thrombi and panni and 13 of 19 isolated panni. Predictors of thrombus or mixed presentation include mobile mass (p = 0.009), attachment to occluder (p = 0.02), elevated gradients (p = 0.04), and an international normalized ratio of < or = 2.5 (p = 0.03). All 34 patients with thrombus or mixed presentation had > or = 1 predictor. The prevalence of thrombus in the presence of < or = 1, 2, and > or = 3 predictors is 14%, 69%, and 91%, respectively. Thus, TEE is sensitive in the identification of abnormal mass in the setting of MPVD. An algorithm based on clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic predictors may be useful to estimate the likelihood of thrombus in the setting of MPVD. In the presence of > or = 3 predictors, the probability of thrombus is high.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗
NASA NTRS2009

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Lutes, Loren D.↗
NASA NTRS2009

KSC Tech Transfer News, Volume 2, No. 2

This issue contains articles about: (1) the Innovative Partnerships Program (IPP) and the manager of the program, Alexis Hongamen, (2) New Technology Report (NTR) on a Monte Carlo Simulation to Estimate the Likelihood of Direct Lightning Strikes, (3) Kennedy Space Center's Applied Physics Lab, (4) a virtual ruler that is used for many applications, (5) a portable device that finds low-level leaks, (6) a sun-shield, that supports in-space cryogenic propellant storage, (7) lunar dust modeling software, (8) space based monitoring of radiation damage to DNA, (9) the use of light-emitting diode (LED) arrays vegetable production system, (10) Dust Tolerant Intelligent Electrical Connection Systems, (11) Ice Detection Camera System Upgrade, (12) Repair Techniques for Composite Structures, (13) Cryogenic Orbital Testbed, and (14) copyright protection.

Makufka, David↗
NASA NTRS2005

Multiple-Bit Differential Detection of OQPSK

A multiple-bit differential-detection method has been proposed for the reception of radio signals modulated with offset quadrature phase-shift keying (offset QPSK or OQPSK). The method is also applicable to other spectrally efficient offset quadrature modulations. This method is based partly on the same principles as those of a multiple-symbol differential-detection method for M-ary QPSK, which includes QPSK (that is, non-offset QPSK) as a special case. That method was introduced more than a decade ago by the author of the present method as a means of improving performance relative to a traditional (two-symbol observation) differential-detection scheme. Instead of symbol-by-symbol detection, both that method and the present one are based on a concept of maximum-likelihood sequence estimation (MLSE). As applied to the modulations in question, MLSE involves consideration of (1) all possible binary data sequences that could have been received during an observation time of some number, N, of symbol periods and (2) selection of the sequence that yields the best match to the noise-corrupted signal received during that time. The performance of the prior method was shown to range from that of traditional differential detection for short observation times (small N) to that of ideal coherent detection (with differential encoding) for long observation times (large N).

Simon, Marvin↗
NASA NTRS2012

Experimental Validation of Pulse Phase Tracking for X-Ray Pulsar Based

Pulsars are a form of variable celestial source that have shown to be usable as aids for autonomous, deep space navigation. Particularly those sources emitting in the X-ray band are ideal for navigation due to smaller detector sizes. In this paper X-ray photons arriving from a pulsar are modeled as a non-homogeneous Poisson process. The method of pulse phase tracking is then investigated as a technique to measure the radial distance traveled by a spacecraft over an observation interval. A maximum-likelihood phase estimator (MLE) is used for the case where the observed frequency signal is constant. For the varying signal frequency case, an algorithm is used in which the observation window is broken up into smaller blocks over which an MLE is used. The outputs of this phase estimation process were then looped through a digital phase-locked loop (DPLL) in order to reduce the errors and produce estimates of the doppler frequency. These phase tracking algorithms were tested both in a computer simulation environment and using the NASA Goddard Space flight Center X-ray Navigation Laboratory Testbed (GXLT). This provided an experimental validation with photons being emitted by a modulated X-ray source and detected by a silicon-drift detector. Models of the Crab pulsar and the pulsar B1821-24 were used in order to generate test scenarios. Three different simulated detector trajectories were used to be tracked by the phase tracking algorithm: a stationary case, one with constant velocity, and one with constant acceleration. All three were performed in one-dimension along the line of sight to the pulsar. The first two had a constant signal frequency and the third had a time varying frequency. All of the constant frequency cases were processed using the MLE, and it was shown that they tracked the initial phase within 0.15% for the simulations and 2.5% in the experiments, based on an average of ten runs. The MLE-DPLL cascade version of the phase tracking algorithm was used in the varying frequency case. This resulted in tracking of the phase and frequency by the DPLL outputs in both the simulation and experimental environments. The crab pulsar was experimentally tested with a trajectory with a higher acceleration. In this case the phase error tended toward zero as the observation extended to 250 seconds and the doppler frequency error tended to zero in under 100 seconds.

Experimental↗
NASA NTRS2016

Maximum Likelihood Synchronization for Pulse Position Modulation with Inter-Symbol Guard Times

Deep space optical communications promises orders-of-magnitude growth in communication capacity, supporting high data rate applications such as video streaming and high-bandwidth science instruments. Pulse position modulation is the modulation format of choice for deep space applications, and by inserting inter-symbol guard times between the symbols, the signal carries the timing information needed by the demodulator. Accurately extracting this timing information is crucial to demodulating and decoding this signal. In this paper we propose a low complexity maximum likelihood timing estimator for pulse position modulation with inter-symbol guard times which significantly outperforms the prior art in this domain. We show that this estimator can achieve the same performance as prior estimators with an order-of-magnitude less signal flux, or multiple orders-of-magnitude less flux-accumulation time. Further we show that this estimator achieves the Cramer-Rao bound, making it asymptotically efficient. This method does not require an explicit synchronization sequence, freeing up channel resources for data transmission.

Rogalin, Ryan↗
NASA NTRS1993

Pseudo-Coherent Demodulation for Mobile Satellite Systems

This paper proposes three so-called pseudo-coherent demodulation schemes for use in land mobile satellite channels. The schemes are derived based on maximum-likelihood (ML) estimation and detection of an N-symbol observation of the received signal.

Mobile↗
NASA NTRS1978

A computer program for estimation from incomplete multinomial data

Coding is given for maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation of the vector p of multinomial cell probabilities from incomplete data. Also included is coding to calculate and approximate elements of the posterior mean and covariance matrices. The program is written in FORTRAN 4 language for the Control Data CYBER 170 series digital computer system with network operating system (NOS) 1.1. The program requires approximately 44000 octal locations of core storage. A typical case requires from 72 seconds to 92 seconds on CYBER 175 depending on the value of the prior parameter.

Credeur, K. R.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Frequency Domain Quasi Maximum Likelihood Identification of Low Order Aeroservoelastic Models from Flight-Test Data

In this paper a quasi maximum likelihood method for estimating a low order model of a flexible vehicle has been developed and demonstrated. The quasi maximum likelihood method uses a large number of sensors to estimate the parameters and covariance in a method consistent with the maximum likelihood filter-error method. The cost function has been defined in a frequency domain to improve computational efficiency and to enable estimation of an unstable plant. The method has been demonstrated using flight data from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration X-56A Multi-Utility Technology Testbed flex wing tests, which include unstable flutter modes. The method was able to effectively estimate the frequency and damping of the dynamics of the aircraft and generate a transfer function that is useful for control system evaluations.

Jeffrey Ouellette↗