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NASA NTRS1998

Upper Limits of Predictability in Long-Range Climate/Hydrologic Forecasts

The accurate forecasting of el nino or la nina conditions in the tropical Pacific can potentially lead to valuable predictions of hydrological anomalies over land at seasonal to interannual timescales. Even with highly accurate earth system models, though, our ability to generate these continental forecasts will always be limited by the chaotic nature of the atmospheric circulation. The nature of this fundamental limitation is explored through the use of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. In each simulation of the first ensemble, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are given the same realistic interannual variations over a 45-year period, and land surface state is allowed to evolve with that of the atmosphere. Analysis of the results shows that the SSTs control the temporal organization of continental precipitation anomalies to a significant extent in the tropics and to a much smaller extent in midlatitudes. In each simulation of the second ensemble, we prescribe SSTs as before, but we also prescribe interannual variations in the low frequency component of evaporation efficiency over land. Thus, in the second ensemble, we effectively make the extreme assumption that surface boundary conditions across the globe are perfectly predictable, and we quantify the consistency with which the atmosphere (particularly precipitation) responds to these boundary conditions. The resulting "absolute upper limit" on the predictability of precipitation is found to be quite high in the tropics yet only moderate in many midlatitude regions.

Koster, R. D.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Current Limitations on VLBI Accuracy

The contribution of VLBI to geophysics and geodesy arises from its ability to measure distances between stations in a network and to determine the orientation of stations in the network as well as the orientation of the network with respect to the external reference frame of extragalactic radio objects. Integrating nearly two decades of observations provides useful information about station positions and velocities and the orientation of the Earth, but the complications of the real world and the limitations of observing, modeling and analysis prevent recovery of all effects. Of the factors that limit the accuracy of seemingly straightforward geodetic parameters, the neutral propagation medium has been subject to the greatest scrutiny, but the treatment of the mapping function, the wet component and spatial/temporal inhomogeneities is still improving. These affect both the terrestrial scale and consistency over time. The modeling of non-secular site motions (tides and loading) has increased in sophistication, but there are some differences between the models and the observations. VLBI antennas are massive objects, so their behavior is quite unlike GPS monuments, but antenna deformations add some (generally) unmodeled signal. Radio sources used in geodetic VLBI observations are selected for strength and (relative) absence of structure, but apparent changes in position can leak into geodetic parameters. A linear rate of change of baseline or site parameters is the simplest model and its error improves with time span. However, in most cases the VLBI data distribution is insufficient to look for real non-linear behavior that might affect the average rate. A few sites have multiple VLBI antennas, and some show small differences in rate. VLBI intrinsically measures relative positions and velocities, but individual site positions and velocities are generally more useful. The creation of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame, which transforms relative information into individual results, is an empirical process that has intrinsic errors. While UT1 is uniquely measured by VLBI, the geographical distribution and availability of VLBI stations, especially in the southern hemisphere, and the consistency of the VLBI terrestrial reference frame may limit the accuracy of Earth orientation measurements. The effects of particular error sources on geodetic and geophysical parameters derived from VLBI data will be illustrated.

Ma, Chopo↗

NASA NTRS1999

Investigation of Near Shannon Limit Coding Schemes

Turbo codes can deliver performance that is very close to the Shannon limit. This report investigates algorithms for convolutional turbo codes and block turbo codes. Both coding schemes can achieve performance near Shannon limit. The performance of the schemes is obtained using computer simulations. There are three sections in this report. First section is the introduction. The fundamental knowledge about coding, block coding and convolutional coding is discussed. In the second section, the basic concepts of convolutional turbo codes are introduced and the performance of turbo codes, especially high rate turbo codes, is provided from the simulation results. After introducing all the parameters that help turbo codes achieve such a good performance, it is concluded that output weight distribution should be the main consideration in designing turbo codes. Based on the output weight distribution, the performance bounds for turbo codes are given. Then, the relationships between the output weight distribution and the factors like generator polynomial, interleaver and puncturing pattern are examined. The criterion for the best selection of system components is provided. The puncturing pattern algorithm is discussed in detail. Different puncturing patterns are compared for each high rate. For most of the high rate codes, the puncturing pattern does not show any significant effect on the code performance if pseudo - random interleaver is used in the system. For some special rate codes with poor performance, an alternative puncturing algorithm is designed which restores their performance close to the Shannon limit. Finally, in section three, for iterative decoding of block codes, the method of building trellis for block codes, the structure of the iterative decoding system and the calculation of extrinsic values are discussed.

Kwatra, S. C.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Force Limited Vibration Test of HESSI Imager

The High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) is a solar x-ray and gamma-ray observatory scheduled for launch in November 2000. Vibration testing of the HESSI imager flight unit was performed in August 1999. The HESSI imager consists of a composite metering tube, two aluminum trays mounted to the tube on titanium flexure mounts, and nine modulation grids mounted on each tray. The vibration tests were acceleration controlled and force limited, in order to prevent overtesting. The force limited strategy reduced the shaker force and notched the acceleration at resonances. The test set-up, test levels, and results are presented. The development of the force limits is also discussed. The imager successfully survived the vibration testing.

Amato, Deborah↗

NASA NTRS2000

Follow on Validation of Force-Limited Vibration Testing

A second sounding rocket experiment was performed in the summer of 1998 in a continuing effort to validate the force limits techniques used in random vibration tests. The accuracy of the force limiting prediction techniques has not clearly been sufficiently confirmed with in-flight data as of this time. The flight was on board one of the BlackBrant series of sounding rockets. This vehicle is the one most commonly used for suborbital scientific payloads by NASA. An aluminum double deck structure simulating a dynamic source and load was flown. The hardware was instrumented with accelerometers and force sensors that measured input acceleration, forces and acceleration responses on the load. Force limiting analysis methods are compared with the flight measurements in order to evaluate analysis predictions methods and test procedures. This sounding rocket flight is the second in a series of flights that will be performed.

Kaufman, Daniel S.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT): A Linearized State-Space Model

Vibration acceleration levels on large space platforms exceed the requirements of many space experiments. The Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) is being built by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to attenuate these disturbances to acceptable levels. G-LIMIT uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to levitate and isolate payloads at the individual experiment/sub-experiment (versus rack) level. Payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation measurements are fed to a state-space controller. The controller, in turn, determines the actuator Currents needed for effective experiment isolation. This paper presents the development of an algebraic, state-space model of g-LIMIT, in a form suitable for optimal controller design. The equations are first derived using Newton's Second Law directly, then simplified to a linear form for the purpose of controller design.

Hampton, R. David↗

NASA NTRS2000

G-LIMIT

Dynamic modeling and controller design efforts were conducted at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) on the Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT), under NAG8-1598; the funded period of performance was 8/26/98 through 12/31/00. The title of the grant was 'Support of g-LIMIT for Isolation of Space Science Experiments: Dynamic Modeling and Optimal Controller Synthesis.' Design codes were developed for implementation of a steady-state H infinity controller design method using the frequency weighted plant for the MDOF g-LIMIT design case.

Hampton, R. David↗

NASA NTRS2001

Optimal Control Design Using an H2 Method for the Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT)

The acceleration environment on the International Space Station (ISS) will likely exceed the requirements of many micro-gravity experiments. The Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) is being built by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to attenuate the nominal acceleration environment and provide some isolation for micro-gravity science experiments. G-LIMIT uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to isolate a platform for mounting science payloads from the nominal acceleration environment. The system utilizes payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation measurements in a feedback controller to accomplish the vibration isolation task. The controller provides current command to six magnetic actuators, producing the required experiment isolation from the ISS acceleration environment. This paper presents the development of a candidate control law to meet the acceleration attenuation requirements for the g-LIMIT experiment platform. The controller design is developed using linear optimal control techniques for both frequency-weighted H(sub 2) and H(sub infinity) norms. Comparison of the performance and robustness to plant uncertainty for these two optimal control design approaches are included in the discussion.

Calhoun, Phillip C.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Quantitative Studies on the Propagation and Extinction of Near-Limit Premixed Flames under Normal- and Micro-gravity

Strained laminar flames have been systematically studied, as the understanding of their structure and dynamic behavior is of relevance to turbulent combustion.. Most of these studies have been conducted in opposed-jet, stagnation-type flow configurations. Studies at high strain rates are important in quantifying and understanding the response of vigorously burning flames and determine extinction states. Studies of weakly strained flames can be of particular interest for all stoichiometries. For example, the laminar flame speeds, S(sup o)(sub u), can be accurately determined by using the counterflow technique only if measurements are obtained at very low strain rates. Furthermore, near-limit flames are stabilized by weak strain rates. Previous studies have shown that near-limit flames are particularly sensitive to chain mechanisms, thermal radiation, and unsteadiness. The stabilization and study of weakly strained flames is complicated by the presence of buoyancy that can render the flames unstable to the point of extinction. Thus, the use of microgravity (mu-g) becomes essential in order to provide meaningful insight into this important combustion regime. In our past studies the laminar flame speeds and extinction strain rates were directly measured at ultra-low strain rates. The laminar flame speeds were measured by having a positively strained planar flame undergoing a transition to a negatively strained Bunsen flame and by measuring the propagation speed during that transition. The extinction strain rates of near-limit flames were measured in mu-g. Results obtained for CH4/air and C3H8/air mixtures are in agreement with those obtained by Maruta et al.

Egolfopoulos, F. N.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Equations of Motion for the g-LIMIT Microgravity Vibration Isolation System

A desirable microgravity environment for experimental science payloads may require an active vibration isolation control system. A vibration isolation system named g-LIMIT (GLovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology) is being developed by NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to support microgravity science experiments using the microgravity science glovebox. In this technical memorandum, the full six-degree-of-freedom nonlinear equations of motion for g-LIMIT are derived. Although the motivation for this model development is control design and analysis of g-LIMIT, the equations are derived for a general configuration and may be used for other isolation systems as well.

Kim, Y. K.↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Influence of Power Limitations on Closed Environment Life Support System Applications

The future of manned space exploration will be determined through a process which balances the innate need of humanity to explore its surroundings and the costs associated with accomplishing these goals. For NASA, this balance is derived from economics and budgetary constraints that hold it accountable for the expenditure of public funds. These budgetary realities demand a reduction in cost and expenditures of exploration and research activities. For missions venturing out to the edge of habitability, the development of cost effective life support approaches will have a significant influence on mission viability. Over the past several years, a variety of mission scenarios for potential Lunar and Mars missions have been developed. The most promising of these scenarios attempt to provide basic mission requirements at a minimum cost. As a result, these scenarios are extremely power limited. For Closed Environment Life Support System (CELSS) applications, these realities impose both limitations and direction to future research. This paper presents a summary of these mission scenarios and an evaluation of the impact which these power limitations will have on CELSS system design.

Flynn, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2002

Volcanic Plume Heights on Mars: Limits of Validity for Convective Models

Previous studies have overestimated volcanic plume heights on Mars. In this work, we demonstrate that volcanic plume rise models, as currently formulated, have only limited validity in any environment. These limits are easily violated in the current Mars environment and may also be violated for terrestrial and early Mars conditions. We indicate some of the shortcomings of the model with emphasis on the limited applicability to current Mars conditions. Specifically, basic model assumptions are violated when (1) vertical velocities exceed the speed of sound, (2) radial expansion rates exceed the speed of sound, (3) radial expansion rates approach or exceed the vertical velocity, or (4) plume radius grossly exceeds plume height. All of these criteria are violated for the typical Mars example given here. Solutions imply that the convective rise, model is only valid to a height of approximately 10 kilometers. The reason for the model breakdown is hat the current Mars atmosphere is not of sufficient density to satisfy the conservation equations. It is likely that diffusion and other effects governed by higher-order differential equations are important within the first few kilometers of rise. When the same criteria are applied to eruptions into a higher-density early Mars atmosphere, we find that eruption rates higher than 1.4 x 10(exp 9) kilograms per second also violate model assumptions. This implies a maximum extent of approximately 65 kilometers for convective plumes on early Mars. The estimated plume heights for both current and early Mars are significantly lower than those previously predicted in the literature. Therefore, global-scale distribution of ash seems implausible.

Glaze, Lori S.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Limits to Cloud Susceptibility

1-kilometer AVHRR observations of ship tracks in low-level clouds off the west coast of the U S. were used to determine limits for the degree to which clouds might be altered by increases in anthropogenic aerosols. Hundreds of tracks were analyzed to determine whether the changes in droplet radii, visible optical depths, and cloud top altitudes that result from the influx of particles from underlying ships were consistent with expectations based on simple models for the indirect effect of aerosols. The models predict substantial increases in sunlight reflected by polluted clouds due to the increases in droplet numbers and cloud liquid water that result from the elevated particle concentrations. Contrary to the model predictions, the analysis of ship tracks revealed a 15-20% reduction in liquid water for the polluted clouds. Studies performed with a large-eddy cloud simulation model suggested that the shortfall in cloud liquid water found in the satellite observations might be attributed to the restriction that the 1-kilometer pixels be completely covered by either polluted or unpolluted cloud. The simulation model revealed that a substantial fraction of the indirect effect is caused by a horizontal redistribution of cloud water in the polluted clouds. Cloud-free gaps in polluted clouds fill in with cloud water while the cloud-free gaps in the surrounding unpolluted clouds remain cloud-free. By limiting the analysis to only overcast pixels, the current study failed to account for the gap-filling predicted by the simulation model. This finding and an analysis of the spatial variability of marine stratus suggest new ways to analyze ship tracks to determine the limit to which particle pollution will alter the amount of sunlight reflected by clouds.

Coakley, James A., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Optimal Control Design using an H(sub 2) Method for the Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (G-Limit)

The acceleration environment on the International Space Station (ISS) will likely exceed the requirements of many micro-gravity experiments. The Glovebox Integrated Microgravity Isolation Technology (g-LIMIT) is being built by the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center to attenuate the nominal acceleration environment and provide some isolation for microgravity science experiments. G-LIMIT uses Lorentz (voice-coil) magnetic actuators to isolate a platform for mounting science payloads from the nominal acceleration environment. The system utilizes payload acceleration, relative position, and relative orientation measurements in a feedback controller to accomplish the vibration isolation task. The controller provides current commands to six magnetic actuators, producing the required experiment isolation from the ISS acceleration environment. This paper presents the development of a candidate control law to meet the acceleration attenuation requirements for the g-LIMIT experiment platform. The controller design is developed using linear optimal control techniques for frequency-weighted H(sub 2) norms. Comparison of the performance and robustness to plant uncertainty for this control design approach is included in the discussion.

Calhoun, Philip C.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Feature Visibility Limits in the Non-Linear Enhancement of Turbid Images

The advancement of non-linear processing methods for generic automatic clarification of turbid imagery has led us from extensions of entirely passive multiscale Retinex processing to a new framework of active measurement and control of the enhancement process called the Visual Servo. In the process of testing this new non-linear computational scheme, we have identified that feature visibility limits in the post-enhancement image now simplify to a single signal-to-noise figure of merit: a feature is visible if the feature-background signal difference is greater than the RMS noise level. In other words, a signal-to-noise limit of approximately unity constitutes a lower limit on feature visibility.

Jobson, Daniel J.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Radiation-Dependent Limit for the Viability of Bacterial Spores in Halite Fluid Inclusions and on Mars

When claims for the long-term survival of viable organisms are made, either within terrestrial minerals or on Mars, considerations should be made of the limitations imposed by the naturally occurring radiation dose to which they have been exposed. We investigated the effect of ionizing radiation on different bacterial spores by measuring the inactivation constants for B. subtilis and s. marismortui spores in solution as well as for dry spores of B. subtilis and B. thuringiensis. S. marismortui is a halophilic spore that is genetically similar to the recently discovered 2-9-3 bacterium from a halite fluid inclusion, claimed to be 250 million years old, B. thuringiensis is a soil bacterium that is genetically similar to the human pathogens B. anthracis and B. cereus. To relate the inactivation constant to some realistic environments, we calculated the radiation regimen in a halite fluid inclusion and in the Martian subsurface over time. Our conclusion is that the ionizing dose of radiation in those environments limits the survival of viable bacterial spores over long periods. In the absence of an active repair mechanism in the dormant state, the long-term survival of spores is limited to less than 109 million years in halite fluid inclusions, to 100 to 160 million years in the Martian subsurface below 3 m, and to less than 600,000 years in the upper-most meter of Mars.

Kminek, Gerhard↗

NASA NTRS2003

Torque Limit for Bolted Joint for Composites: TTTC Properties of Laminated Composites - Part A

The existing design code for torque limit of bolted joints for composites at Marshall Space Flight Center is MSFC-STD-486B, which was originally developed in 1960s for metallic materials. The theoretical basis for this code was a simplified mechanics analysis, which takes into account only the bolt, nut and washers, but not the structural members to be connected. The assumption was that metallic materials would not fail due to the bearing stress at the contact area between washer and the mechanical member. This is true for metallic materials; but for composite materials the results could be completely different. Unlike most metallic materials, laminated composite materials have superior mechanical properties (such as modulus and strength) in the in-plane direction, but not in the out-of-plane, or through-the-thickness (TTT) direction. During the torquing, TTT properties (particularly compressive modulus and compressive strength) play a dominant role in composite failure. Because of this concern, structural design engineers at Marshall are currently using a compromised empirical approach: using 50% of the torque value for composite members. Companies like Boeing is using a similar approach. An initial study was conducted last summer on this topic to develop theoretical model(s) that takes into consideration of composite members. Two simplified models were developed based on stress failure criterion and strain failure criterion, respective. However, these models could not be used to predict the torque limit because of the unavailability of material data, specifically, through-the-thickness compression (TTTC) modulus and strength. Therefore, the task for this summer is to experimentally determine the TTTC properties. Due to the time limitation, only one material has been tested: IM7/8552 with [0 degrees,plus or minus 45 degrees, 90 degree ] configuration. This report focuses the test results and their significance, while the experimentation will be described in a separate report by Mr. Kris Kostreva.

Zhao, Yi↗

NASA NTRS2003

Optimal Limited Contingency Planning

For a given problem, the optimal Markov policy over a finite horizon is a conditional plan containing a potentially large number of branches. However, there are applications where it is desirable to strictly limit the number of decision points and branches in a plan. This raises the question of how one goes about finding optimal plans containing only a limited number of branches. In this paper, we present an any-time algorithm for optimal k-contingency planning. It is the first optimal algorithm for limited contingency planning that is not an explicit enumeration of possible contingent plans. By modelling the problem as a partially observable Markov decision process, it implements the Bellman optimality principle and prunes the solution space. We present experimental results of applying this algorithm to some simple test cases.

Meuleau, Nicolas↗