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At least 433 records · Page 24

Role of Satellite Rainfall Information in Improving Understanding of the Dynamical Link Between the Tropics and Extratropics Prospects of Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Sub-Seasonal Time Scales

The tropics and extratropics are two dynamically distinct regimes. The coupling between these two regimes often defies simple analytical treatment. Progress in understanding of the dynamical interaction between the tropics and extratropics relies on better observational descriptions to guide theoretical development. However, global analyses currently contain significant errors in primary hydrological variables such as precipitation, evaporation, moisture, and clouds, especially in the tropics. Tropical analyses have been shown to be sensitive to parameterized precipitation processes, which are less than perfect, leading to order-one discrepancies between estimates produced by different data assimilation systems. One strategy for improvement is to assimilate rainfall observations to constrain the analysis and reduce uncertainties in variables physically linked to precipitation. At the Data Assimilation Office at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, we have been exploring the use of tropical rain rates derived from the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and the Special Sensor Microwave/ Imager (SSM/I) instruments in global data assimilation. Results show that assimilating these data improves not only rainfall and moisture fields but also related climate parameters such as clouds and radiation, as well as the large-scale circulation and short-range forecasts. These studies suggest that assimilation of microwave rainfall observations from space has the potential to significantly improve the quality of 4-D assimilated datasets for climate investigations (Hou et al. 2001). In the next few years, there will be a gradual increase in microwave rain products available from operational and research satellites, culminating to a target constellation of 9 satellites to provide global rain measurements every 3 hours with the proposed Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission in 2007. Continued improvements in assimilation methodology, rainfall error estimates, and model parameterizations are needed to ensure that we derive maximum benefits from these observations.

Hou, Arthur Y.↗

Optimal Reflectance, Transmittance, and Absorptance Wavebands and Band Ratios for the Estimation of Leaf Chlorophyll Concentration

The present study utilized regression analysis to identify: wavebands and band ratios within the 400-850 nm range that could be used to estimate total chlorophyll concentration with minimal error; and simple regression models that were most effective in estimating chlorophyll concentrations were measured for two broadleaved species, a broadleaved vine, a needle-leaved conifer, and a representative of the grass family.Overall, reflectance, transmittance, and absorptance corresponded most precisely with chlorophyll concentration at wavelengths near 700 nm, although regressions were strong as well in the 550-625 nm range.

Carter, Gregory A.↗

Gamma-ray Burst Energetics an the Gamma-ray Burst Hubble Diagram: Promises and Limitations

We present a complete sample of 29 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) for which it has been possible to determine temporal breaks (or limits) from their afterglow light curves. We interpret these breaks within the framework of the uniform conical jet model, incorporating realistic estimates of the ambient density and propagating error estimates on the measured quantities. In agreement with our previous analysis of a smaller sample, the derived jet opening angles of those 16 bursts with redshifts result in a narrow clustering of geometrically corrected gamma-ray energies about 1.33 x 10(exp 51) ergs; the burst-to-burst variance about this value is 0.35 dex, a factor of 2.2. Despite this rather small scatter, we demonstrate in a series of GRB Hubble diagrams that the current sample cannot place meaningful constraints upon the fundamental parameters of the universe. Indeed, for GRBs to ever be useful in cosmographic measurements, we argue the necessity of two directions. First, GRB Hubble diagrams should be based upon fundamental physical quantities such as energy, rather than empirically derived and physically ill-understood distance indicators (such as those based upon prompt burst time-profiles and spectra). Second, a more homogeneous set should be constructed by culling subclasses from the larger sample. These subclasses, although now first recognizable by deviant energies, ultimately must be identifiable by properties other than those directly related to energy. We identify a new subclass of GRBs (" f-GRBs ") that appear both underluminous by factors of at least 10 and exhibit a rapid fading (f(sub nu is proportional to t(sup -2) at early times (t < or = 0.5 day). About 10%-20% of observed long-duration bursts appear to be f-GRBs.

Bloom, J. S.↗

Trajectory Reconstruction and Uncertainty Analysis Using Mars Science Laboratory Pre-Flight Scale Model Aeroballistic Testing

As part of the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) trajectory reconstruction effort at NASA Langley Research Center, free-flight aeroballistic experiments of instrumented MSL scale models was conducted at Aberdeen Proving Ground in Maryland. The models carried an inertial measurement unit (IMU) and a flush air data system (FADS) similar to the MSL Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) that provided data types similar to those from the MSL entry. Multiple sources of redundant data were available, including tracking radar and on-board magnetometers. These experimental data enabled the testing and validation of the various tools and methodologies that will be used for MSL trajectory reconstruction. The aerodynamic parameters Mach number, angle of attack, and sideslip angle were estimated using minimum variance with a priori to combine the pressure data and pre-flight computational fluid dynamics (CFD) data. Both linear and non-linear pressure model terms were also estimated for each pressure transducer as a measure of the errors introduced by CFD and transducer calibration. Parameter uncertainties were estimated using a "consider parameters" approach.

Lugo, Rafael A.↗

Radar Altimetry and Velocimetry for Inertial Navigation: A Lunar Landing Example

The traditional role that altimetry and velocimetry have played in spacecraft landings is to provide a direct measure of the spacecraft's surface altitude and surface relative velocity; however, their role in determining an inertial position and velocity has seen limited investigation. In this study, inertially sensitive measurement models for altimetry and velocimetry are formulated that include relevant instrument and environment error models. These models are applied and simulated for a realistic lunar landing scenario that is based on recent work for NASA's Altair lander. The preliminary results indicate that inertial landing accuracies of several meters are possible.

navigation systesm↗

Method for Real-Time Model Based Structural Anomaly Detection

A system and methods for real-time model based vehicle structural anomaly detection are disclosed. A real-time measurement corresponding to a location on a vehicle structure during an operation of the vehicle is received, and the real-time measurement is compared to expected operation data for the location to provide a modeling error signal. A statistical significance of the modeling error signal to provide an error significance is calculated, and a persistence of the error significance is determined. A structural anomaly is indicated, if the persistence exceeds a persistence threshold value.

Smith, Timothy A.↗

Cloud Influence on ERA5 and AMPS Surface Downwelling Longwave Radiation Biases in West Antarctica

The surface downwelling longwave radiation component (LW[down arrow]) is crucial for the determination of the surface energy budget and has significant implications for the resilience of ice surfaces in the polar regions. Accurate model evaluation of this radiation component requires knowledge about the phase, vertical distribution, and associated temperature of water in the atmosphere, all of which control the LW[down arrow] signal measured at the surface. In this study, we examine the LW[down arrow] model errors found in the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) operational forecast model and the ERA5 reanalysis model relative to observations from the AWARE campaign at McMurdo Station and the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) Divide. The errors are calculated separately for observed clear-sky conditions, ice-cloud occurrences, and liquid-bearing cloud layer (LBCL) occurrences. The analysis results show a tendency in both models at each site to underestimate the LW[down arrow] during clear sky conditions, high error variability (standard deviations > 20 W/m[exp2]) during any type of cloud occurrence, and negative LW biases when LBCLs are observed (bias magnitudes > 15 W/m[exp2] in tenuous LBCL cases; > 43 W/m[exp2] in optically thick/opaque LBCLs instances). We suggest that a generally dry and liquid-deficient atmosphere responsible for the identified LW[down arrow] biases in both models is the result of excessive ice formation and growth, which could stem from model initial and lateral boundary conditions, microphysics scheme, aerosol representation, and/or limited vertical resolution.

Israel Silber↗

Evaluation of Stereology for Snow Microstructure Measurement and Microwave Emission Modeling: A Case Study

Reliable microstructure measurement of snow is a requirement for microwave radiative transfer model validation. Snow specific surface area (SSA) can be measured using stereological methods, in which snow samples are cast in the field and photographed in the laboratory. Processing stereology photographs manually by counting intersections of test cycloids with air–ice boundaries reduces the problems in binary segmentation. This paper is a case study to evaluate the repeatability of the manually stereology interpretation by two independent research groups. We further assessed how uncertainty in snow SSA influences simulated brightness temperature(TB) driven by the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpacks (MEMLS), and how stereology compares to Near Infrared (NIR) camera and hand lens. Data was obtained from two alpine snow profiles from Steamboat Springs, Colorado. Results showed that stereological SSA values measured by two groups are highly consistent, and the ground radiometer measured TBat 19 and 37 GHz was successfully predicted (RMSE<3.8 K);simulations using NIR SSA and hand-lens geometric grain size (Dg)measurements have larger errors. This conclusion was not sensitive to uncertainty in the free parameters of TB modeling.

Microwave radiometry↗

Ultimate limits to error probabilities for ionospheric models based on solar geophysical indices and how these compare with the state of the art

An ideal model based on a given set of geophysical indices is defined as a model that provides a least squares fit to the data set as a function of the indices considered. Satellite measurements of electron content for three stations at different magnetic latitudes were used to provide such data sets which were each fitted to the geophysical indices. The magnitude of the difference between the measured value and the derived equation for the data set was used to estimate the probability of making an error greater than a given magnitude for such an ideal model. Atmospheric Explorer C data is used to examine the causes of the fluctuations and suggestions are made about how real improvements can be made in ionospheric forecasting ability. Joule heating inputs in the auroral electrojets are related to the AL and AU magnetic indices. Magnetic indices based on the time integral of the energy deposited in the electrojets are proposed for modeling processes affected by auroral zone heating.

Nisbet, J. S.↗

Statistical Error Analysis on White-Light Filter Ratio Experiments to Measure Electron Parameters

The Filter ratio technique to remotely measure electron temperature and speed using four color filters in visible light and a polarization camera was described in detail in four articles by Reginald et al., Solar physics, (2018, 2019a, 2019b, 2020). In these four articles we quantified the systematic error associated with using models of symmetric corona to interpret results from asymmetric corona. We also showed the criteria applied to select the bandwidths of filters, and the pros and cons of replacing the traditional linear polarizer with a polarization camera to measure pB. What started in 1990s as ground experiments conducted during total solar eclipses that lasted for a few minutes lead to a balloon borne experiment lasting eight hours in 2019 and will blossom into a space experiment on the International Space Station in 2023. Due to constraints on the bandwidths of the four filters, a successful mission requires quantification of the statistical error using Monte Carlo simulation to generate two feasibility profiles, which are unique to the design parameters of the coronagraph, to comprehend the feasibility to measure temperature and speed within the desired temporal and spatial resolutions. For the statistical error analysis, we use modeled K and F corona profiles, representative theoretical diffraction, scattering, and vignetting profiles, assumed efficiencies for lenses, mirrors, and polarizers, assumed detector properties on quantum efficiency, full well depth, dark noise, and read noise, and assumed instrument properties on aperture diameter, solid angle, and pixel resolution. We hope future white-light coronagraphs will exhibit capabilities to measure electron density, temperature, and speed.

Nelson Reginald↗

Improvement of a large dynamic analytical model using ground vibration test data

A method has been developed which uses measured normal modes and natural frequencies to improve an analytical mass and stiffness matrix model of a structure. The method directly identifies, without iteration, a set of minimum changes in the analytical matrices which force the eigensolutions to agree with the test measurements. An application is presented in which the analytical model had 508 degrees of freedom and 19 modes were measured at 101 locations on the structure. The resulting changes in the model are judged to be small compared to expectations of errors in the analysis. Thus the improved model is accepted as a reasonable model of the structure with improved dynamic response characteristics. In addition, it is shown that the procedure may be a useful tool in identifying apparent measured modes which are not true normal modes of the structures.

Berman, A.↗

A multivariate variational objective analysis-assimilation method. Part 1: Development of the basic model

The variational method of undetermined multipliers is used to derive a multivariate model for objective analysis. The model is intended for the assimilation of 3-D fields of rawinsonde height, temperature and wind, and mean level temperature observed by satellite into a dynamically consistent data set. Relative measurement errors are taken into account. The dynamic equations are the two nonlinear horizontal momentum equations, the hydrostatic equation, and an integrated continuity equation. The model Euler-Lagrange equations are eleven linear and/or nonlinear partial differential and/or algebraic equations. A cyclical solution sequence is described. Other model features include a nonlinear terrain-following vertical coordinate that eliminates truncation error in the pressure gradient terms of the horizontal momentum equations and easily accommodates satellite observed mean layer temperatures in the middle and upper troposphere. A projection of the pressure gradient onto equivalent pressure surfaces removes most of the adverse impacts of the lower coordinate surface on the variational adjustment.

Achtemeier, Gary L.↗

The Precise Orbit and the Challenge of Long Term Stability

The computation of a precise orbit reference is a fundamental component of the altimetric measurement. Since the dawn of the modern altimeter age, orbit accuracy has been determined by the quality of the GPS, SLR, and DORIS tracking systems, the fidelity of the measurement and force models, and the choice of parameterization for the orbit solutions, and whether a dynamic or a reduced-dynamic strategy is used to calculate the orbits. At the start of the TOPEX mission, the inaccuracies in the modeling of static gravity, dynamic ocean tides, and the nonconservative forces dominated the orbit error budget. Much of the error due to dynamic mismodeling can be compensated by reduced-dynamic tracking techniques depending on the measurement system strength. In the last decade, the launch of the GRACE mission has eliminated the static gravity field as a concern, and the background force models and the terrestrial reference frame have been systematically refined. GPS systems have realized many improvements, including better modeling of the forces on the GPS spacecraft, large increases in the ground tracking network, and improved modeling of the GPS measurements. DORIS systems have achieved improvements through the use of new antennae, more stable monumentation, and of satellite receivers that can track multiple beacons, and as well as through improved modeling of the nonconservative forces. Many of these improvements have been applied in the new reprocessed time series of orbits produced for the ERS satellites, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon and the Jason satellites, and as well as for the most recent Cryosat-2 and HY2A. We now face the challenge of maintaining a stable orbit reference for these altimetric satellites. Changes in the time-variable gravity field of the Earth and how these are modelled have been shown to affect the orbit evolution, and the calibration of the altimetric data with tide gauges. The accuracy of the reference frame realizations, and their projection into the future remains a source of error. Other sources of omission error include the geocenter for which no consensus model is as of yet applied. Although progress has been made in nonconservative force modeling through the use of detailed satellite-specific models, radiation pressure modeling, and atmospheric density modeling remain a potential source of orbit error. The longer term influence of variations in the solar and terrestrial radiation fields over annual and solar cycles remains principally untested. Also the long term variation in optical and thermal properties of the space vehicle surfaces would contribute to biases in the orbital frame if ignored. We review the status of altimetric precision orbit determination as exemplified by the recent computations undertaken by the different analysis centers for ERS, Envisat, TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, Cryosat2 and HY2A, and we provide a perspective on the challenges for future missions such as the Jason-3, SENTINEL-3 and SWOT.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

Estimates of Long Term Surface Soil Moisture in the Midwestern U.S. Derived from Satellite Microwave Observations

Soil moisture is a key component of the water and energy balances of the Earth's surface, and has been identified as a parameter of significant potential for improving the accuracy of large-scale land surface-atmosphere interaction models. However, soil moisture is often somewhat difficult to measure accurately in both space and time, especially at large spatial scales. Soil moisture is highly variable, and while point measurements are typically quite accurate, subsequent areal averaging of these measurements often leads to large errors. Since remotely sensed land surface observations are already a spatially averaged or areally integrated value, they are a logical input parameter to regional or larger scale land process models. A database of long-term soil moisture was compared to satellite microwave observations over test sites in the Midwestern United States. Ground measurements of average volumetric surface soil moisture in the top ten cm were made bimonthly at 19 locations throughout the state of Illinois. Nighttime microwave brightness temperatures were observed at a frequency of 6.6 GHz, by the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), onboard the Nimbus 7 satellite. The life of the SMMR instrument spanned from Nov. 1978 to Aug. 1987. At 6.6 GHz, the instrument provided a spatial resolution of approximately 150 km, and a temporal frequency over the test area of about 3 nighttime orbits per week. Vegetation radiative transfer characteristics, such as the canopy transmissivity, were estimated from vegetation indices such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the 37 GHz Microwave Polarization Difference Index (MPDI). Because the time of satellite coverage does not always coincide with the ground measurements of soil moisture, the existing ground data were used to calibrate a water balance for the top IO cm surface layer in order to interpolate daily surface moisture values. Such a climate-based approach is often more appropriate for estimating large-area average soil moisture because meteorological data are generally more spatially representative than isolated point measurements of soil moisture, Passive microwave remote sensing presents the greatest potential for providing regular spatially representative estimates of surface soil moisture at global scales. Real time estimates should improve weather and climate modelling efforts, while the development of historical data sets will provide necessary information for simulation and validation of long-term climate and global change studies.

Owe, M.↗

Estimation of structural parameters from dynamic test data

Parameters for a lumped linear model approximating a distributed elastic structure are determined from dynamic test data comprised of several mode shapes and frequencies. Measurement errors, nonlinear response, and nonmeasurable quantities such as mode slope components are accommodated. Some mass and stiffness parameters may be known accurately, whereas the remainder are to be estimated. The method entails minimizing a quadratic function of the difference between corresponding modes and frequencies of the theoretical model and the test specimen. This technique was applied to some actual vibration test data, and the special techniques that are required to overcome convergence problems are described.

Hall, B. M.↗

The Sm-(146,147)-Nd-(142,143) formation interval for the lunar mantle and implications for lunar evolution

Small anomalies in the isotopic abundance of Nd-142 have been measured for two A17 high-Ti basalts, ilmenite basalt 12056, olivine-pigeonite basalt 12039, feldspathic basalt 12038, and two KREEP basalts. These anomalies correlate with Sm-147/Nd-144 for the basalt source regions as calculated from initial Nd-143/Nd-144 ratios in the basalts, and are interpreted to be from decay of Sm-146 (t sub 1/2 = 103 Ma) in distinct lunar mantle reservoirs. A three-stage model for evolution of Nd-143/Nd-144 and Nd-142/Nd-144 yields reservoir Sm-147/Nd-144 ratios which, with the Nd-142/Nd-144 ratios in the basalts, form a 'mantle isochron' giving a lunar mantle formation interval of 94+2230 Ma (2c(rho)). Calculated reservoir Sm/Nd ratios are in the range expected from some earlier models of basalt petrogenesis. The isochron value of Nd-142/Nd-144 at Sm-147/Nd-144 sub CHUR = 0.1967 is within error limits of the average Nd-142/Nd-144 measured for an L6 chondrite, an H5 chondrite, and the Orgueil carbonaceous chondrite. Evolution of Nd-143 and Nd-142 for high-Ti basalt 70135 was modeled precisely, starting from chondritic relative REE and Nd-isotopic abundances and using the initial (Sm-146/Sm-144) sub 0 ratio inferred from a previous study of angrite LEW86010 as the initial solar system value of this parameter. We infer that the initial Sm/Nd ratio in precursor lunar materials was very nearly chondritic (within approximately 8 percent) prior to lunar differentiation.

Nyquist, L. E.↗

Modeling methodology for MLS range navigation system errors using flight test data

Flight test data was used to develop a methodology for modeling MLS range navigation system errors. The data used corresponded to the constant velocity and glideslope approach segment of a helicopter landing trajectory. The MLS range measurement was assumed to consist of low frequency and random high frequency components. The random high frequency component was extracted from the MLS range measurements. This was done by appropriate filtering of the range residual generated from a linearization of the range profile for the final approach segment. This range navigation system error was then modeled as an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) process. Maximum likelihood techniques were used to identify the parameters of the ARMA process.

Karmali, M. S.↗