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At least 433 records · Page 24

Automated ICRF heating surrogate modeling via machine learning

This work introduces automated machine learning workflows that address critical bottlenecks in surrogate model development for Ion Cyclotron Range of Frequencies (ICRF) heating applications. The automated framework includes data analysis tools that transform raw datasets into actionable insights in seconds, replacing weeks of manual exploratory effort and ensuring consistent, reproducible dataset characterization. By integrating advanced hyperparameter optimization (HPO) methods including Bayesian optimization via BoTorch and Tree-structured Parzen Estimators (TPE), the framework significantly reduces model development time from weeks to hours, decreasing computational cost and required expertise, while enabling high-accuracy surrogate models. Compared to traditional hyperparameter scanning (HPS) techniques such as methodical, randomized, and grid searches, HPO methods achieve superior convergence and predictive performance, even when compared to already well-tuned reference models. On NSTX High Harmonic Fast Wave (HHFW) heating datasets, both Random Forest Regressor (RFR) and neural network surrogates demonstrate improved accuracy, achieving R 2 values beyond 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The results show that while HPO gains are modest for robust architectures like RFR, they become essential for more sensitive models such as neural networks, highlighting the trade-offs across optimization strategies. Through automated workflows that eliminate manual hyperparameter tuning and require minimal ML expertise, this work enables widespread adoption of high-fidelity surrogate models across the fusion community for real-time plasma control, uncertainty quantification, rapid experimental scenario development, and integrated system optimization.

Sanchez-Villar, Alvaro [Princeton Plasma Physics L↗

Impact of Calibrated Land Surface Model Parameters on the Accuracy and Uncertainty of Land-Atmosphere Coupling in WRF Simulations

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface temperature and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

Star cluster classification using deep transfer learning with PHANGS- HST

Currently available star cluster catalogues from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) imaging of nearby galaxies heavily rely on visual inspection and classification of candidate clusters. Here, the time-consuming nature of this process has limited the production of reliable catalogues and thus also post-observation analysis. To address this problem, deep transfer learning has recently been used to create neural network models that accurately classify star cluster morphologies at production scale for nearby spiral galaxies (D ≲ 20 Mpc). Here, we use HST ultraviolet (UV)–optical imaging of over 20 000 sources in 23 galaxies from the Physics at High Angular resolution in Nearby GalaxieS (PHANGS) survey to train and evaluate two new sets of models: (i) distance-dependent models, based on cluster candidates binned by galaxy distance (9–12, 14–18, and 18–24 Mpc), and (ii) distance-independent models, based on the combined sample of candidates from all galaxies. We find that the overall accuracy of both sets of models is comparable to previous automated star cluster classification studies (~60–80 per cent) and shows improvement by a factor of 2 in classifying asymmetric and multipeaked clusters from PHANGS-HST. Somewhat surprisingly, while we observe a weak negative correlation between model accuracy and galactic distance, we find that training separate models for the three distance bins does not significantly improve classification accuracy. We also evaluate model accuracy as a function of cluster properties such as brightness, colour, and spectral energy distribution (SED)-fit age. Based on the success of these experiments, our models will provide classifications for the full set of PHANGS-HST candidate clusters (N ~ 200 000) for public release.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Analysis of Building Model Forecasts using Autonomous HVAC Optimization System for Residential Neighborhood

Heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems account for the highest share of home energy consumption in the United States. Optimized HVAC control can provide thermal improved comfort to the occupants, improve energy efficiency, reduce energy cost, and support grid services. In this paper, we discuss a multi-agent and cloud-based software framework that has been deployed in occupied residential neighborhood. This system enables automatic data collection, learning, optimization, and dispatches signals to neighborhood devices. HVAC optimization is based on model predictive control (MPC). Since the operational performance of MPC depends on model forecasting accuracy, it is crucial to evaluate the model continuously and modify or retrain it as necessary. In this research, we developed an automated workflow to evaluate the performance of temperature and power forecasts based on measured data in the real world. This will provide researchers with a deeper understanding of the model and how it can be improved.

Lebakula, Viswadeep↗

Finite deformation implementation of a mixed-mode single-integral type cohesive zone with reorienting surfaces of separation

To model material ductile failure and crack propagation, cohesive zone elements can be embedded along potential fracture paths in a finite element simulation. When damage criteria are met, elements in the mesh decohere, simulating the formation and propagation of a crack. In this paper, we present a novel computational algorithm based on finite deformation theory, essential to modeling crack initiation and growth in solids undergoing large deformations. This new algorithm was formulated within a Lagrangian frame of reference to extend previous cohesive zone algorithms to include modeling crack growth in finite deformation contexts. The local coordinate system, necessary for defining an embedded cohesive zone, is constructed based upon the current configuration and is updated within the nonlinear iteration process, thereby resulting in the convergence of the solution for a growing crack in a large deformation quasi-static setting. The model’s accuracy was demonstrated by comparing finite element model simulation results with the analytic case of a constant surface separation, as shown in the verification examples. The power and efficacy of the algorithm to capture large deformations during crack growth were then demonstrated with a double cantilever beam example case. It indicates that the model can be applied to a variety of physical circumstances for predicting crack initiation and growth with delamination and fracture.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Core Physics and Kinetics Calculations for the Fissioning Plasma Core Reactor

Highly efficient, compact nuclear reactors would provide high specific impulse spacecraft propulsion. This analysis and numerical simulation effort has focused on the technical feasibility issues related to the nuclear design characteristics of a novel reactor design. The Fissioning Plasma Core Reactor (FPCR) is a shockwave-driven gaseous-core nuclear reactor, which uses Magneto Hydrodynamic effects to generate electric power to be used for propulsion. The nuclear design of the system depends on two major calculations: core physics calculations and kinetics calculations. Presently, core physics calculations have concentrated on the use of the MCNP4C code. However, initial results from other codes such as COMBINE/VENTURE and SCALE4a. are also shown. Several significant modifications were made to the ISR-developed QCALC1 kinetics analysis code. These modifications include testing the state of the core materials, an improvement to the calculation of the material properties of the core, the addition of an adiabatic core temperature model and improvement of the first order reactivity correction model. The accuracy of these modifications has been verified, and the accuracy of the point-core kinetics model used by the QCALC1 code has also been validated. Previously calculated kinetics results for the FPCR were described in the ISR report, "QCALC1: A code for FPCR Kinetics Model Feasibility Analysis" dated June 1, 2002.

Butler, C.↗

Database of Properties of Meteors

A database of properties of meteors, and software that provides access to the database, are being developed as a contribution to continuing efforts to model the characteristics of meteors with increasing accuracy. Such modeling is necessary for evaluation of the risk of penetration of spacecraft by meteors. For each meteor in the database, the record will include an identification, date and time, radiant properties, ballistic coefficient, radar cross section, size, density, and orbital elements. The property of primary interest in the present case is density, and one of the primary goals in this case is to derive densities of meteors from their atmospheric decelerations. The database and software are expected to be valid anywhere in the solar system. The database will incorporate new data plus results of meteoroid analyses that, heretofore, have not been readily available to the aerospace community. Taken together, the database and software constitute a model that is expected to provide improved estimates of densities and to result in improved risk analyses for interplanetary spacecraft. It is planned to distribute the database and software on a compact disk.

Suggs, Rob↗

Association‐based activity coefficient model for electrolyte solutions

Abstract This work presents an association‐based activity coefficient model that explicitly considers the solution nonideality due to associations among ions and solvent species. Built upon the electrolyte nonrandom two‐liquid (eNRTL) model, the model greatly improves the accuracy of eNRTL model for strongly associating electrolyte solutions due to presence of ionic species with high surface charge density. The model successfully correlates mean ionic activity coefficients of 46 aqueous single‐salt systems from 10 cations and 5 anions at 298.15 K up to their solubility limits. With the ion‐specific association parameters identified, the model accurately predicts activity and osmotic coefficients for aqueous mixed‐salt systems at 298.15 K. The temperature dependence of the model results has also been examined at 273–373 K. With superior accuracy over a wide range of concentration and temperature, the model represents a major advancement over eNRTL model and has a great potential to be a next‐generation model for electrolyte solutions.

Lin, Yu‐Jeng↗

Data-driven analysis and prediction of stable phases for high-entropy alloy design

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) represent a promising class of materials with exceptional structural and functional properties. However, their design and optimization pose challenges due to the large composition-phase space coupled with the complex and diverse nature of the phase formation dynamics. In this study, a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning (ML) techniques to predict HEA phases and their composition-dependent phases is proposed. By employing a comprehensive dataset comprising 5692 experimental records encompassing 50 elements and 11 phase categories, we compare the performance of various ML models. Our analysis identifies the most influential features for accurate phase prediction. Furthermore, the class imbalance is addressed by employing data augmentation methods, raising the number of records to 1500 in each category, and ensuring a balanced representation of phase categories. The results show that XGBoost and Random Forest consistently outperform the other models, achieving 86% accuracy in predicting all phases. Additionally, this work provides an extensive analysis of HEA phase formers, showing the contributions of elements and features to the presence of specific phases. We also examine the impact of including different phases on ML model accuracy and feature significance. Notably, the findings underscore the need for ML model selection based on specific applications and desired predictions, as feature importance varies across models and phases. This study significantly advances the understanding of HEA phase formation, enabling targeted alloy design and fostering progress in the field of materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Evaluating the Accuracy of Various Irradiance Models in Detecting Soiling of Irradiance Sensors

We evaluate the feasibility of using various clear-sky models or purchased satellite data for estimating the soiling of a reference cell irradiance sensor. We find results to be more accurate for models that consider local meteorological conditions. We conclude that given the data sets considered, and depending on the requirements of the data analyst, choosing to use purchased satellite irradiance data from Solargis to estimate the soiling of a reference cell sensor tends to yield more accurate results, although there are instances where a clear-sky model performs better. The SOLIS clear-sky model in PVLIB with variable P wat provided useful soiling results, implying that the general method of using a clear-sky model with local meteorological data may provide a low-cost tool for detecting soiling of irradiance sensors.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Short-term variation in leaf-level water use efficiency in a tropical forest

Here we report the representation of stomatal regulation of transpiration and CO 2 assimilation is key to forecasting terrestrial ecosystem responses to global change. Given its importance in determining the relationship between forest productivity and climate, accurate and mechanistic model representation of the relationship between stomatal conductance (g s ) and assimilation is crucial. We assess possible physiological and mechanistic controls on the estimation of the g 1 (stomatal slope, inversely proportional to water use efficiency) and g 0 (stomatal intercept) parameters, using diurnal gas exchange surveys and leaf level response curves of six tropical broadleaf evergreen tree species. g 1 estimated from ex-situ response curves averaged 50% less than g 1 estimated from survey data. While g 0 and g 1 varied between leaves of different phenological stages, the trend was not consistent among species. We identified a diurnal trend associated with g 1 and g 0 that significantly improved model projections of diurnal trends in transpiration. The accuracy of modelled g s can be improved by accounting for variation in stomatal behavior across diurnal periods, and between measurement approaches, rather than focusing on phenological variation in stomatal behavior. Additional investigation into the primary mechanisms responsible for diurnal variation in g 1 will be required to account for this phenomena in land surface models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of the Reconstruction Accuracy of the Ultrasound Model–Based Image Reconstruction (U-MBIR) Method for Concrete to Optimize Damage Detection

Reinforced concrete is a critical structural material used to construct nuclear power plants (NPPs). As such, its safety and performance must be thoroughly examined throughout the life cycle of the NPP infrastructure system. Ultrasonic measurements have been an industry standard for both surface and subsurface inspections. To support the development of these techniques, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has researched and developed advanced image reconstruction algorithms to capture internal damage. The results and discussion presented herein summarize the current state of the ultrasonic model–based iterative reconstruction (U-MBIR) algorithm developed at ORNL. In the work documented in this report, the U-MBIR methodology was applied to four sets of ultrasonic data collected from concrete specimens. The results demonstrate that the U-MBIR algorithm can successfully detect defects within the four concrete samples. The reconstruction images help identify the specimen thickness, regions of delamination, and location of rebar embedded within the concrete. The reconstruction images allow engineers and technicians to characterize the internal defects within concrete specimens and structural members. Ultimately, this knowledge can guide engineers in making informed decisions regarding the performance, safety, and reliability of structural materials (i.e., reinforced concrete) throughout the life cycle of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

On the differences in the vertical distribution of modeled aerosol optical depth over the southeastern Atlantic

Abstract. The southeastern Atlantic is home to an expansive smoke aerosol plume overlying a large cloud deck for approximately a third of the year. The aerosol plume is mainly attributed to the extensive biomass burning activities that occur in southern Africa. Current Earth system models (ESMs) reveal significant differences in their estimates of regional aerosol radiative effects over this region. Such large differences partially stem from uncertainties in the vertical distribution of aerosols in the troposphere. These uncertainties translate into different aerosol optical depths (AODs) in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the free troposphere (FT). This study examines differences of AOD fraction in the FT and AOD differences among ESMs (WRF-CAM5, WRF-FINN, GEOS-Chem, EAM-E3SM, ALADIN, GEOS-FP, and MERRA-2) and aircraft-based measurements from the NASA ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS (ORACLES) field campaign. Models frequently define the PBL as the well-mixed surface-based layer, but this definition misses the upper parts of decoupled PBLs, in which most low-level clouds occur. To account for the presence of decoupled boundary layers in the models, the height of maximum vertical gradient of specific humidity profiles from each model is used to define PBL heights. Results indicate that the monthly mean contribution of AOD in the FT to the total-column AOD ranges from 44 % to 74 % in September 2016 and from 54 % to 71 % in August 2017 within the region bounded by 25∘ S–0∘ N–S and 15∘ W–15∘ E (excluding land) among the ESMs. ALADIN and GEOS-Chem show similar aerosol plume patterns to a derived above-cloud aerosol product from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) during September 2016, but none of the models show a similar above-cloud plume pattern to MODIS in August 2017. Using the second-generation High Spectral Resolution Lidar (HSRL-2) to derive an aircraft-based constraint on the AOD and the fractional AOD, we found that WRF-CAM5 produces 40 % less AOD than those from the HSRL-2 measurements, but it performs well at separating AOD fraction between the FT and the PBL. AOD fractions in the FT for GEOS-Chem and EAM-E3SM are, respectively, 10 % and 15 % lower than the AOD fractions from the HSRL-2. Their similar mean AODs reflect a cancellation of high and low AOD biases. Compared with aircraft-based observations, GEOS-FP, MERRA-2, and ALADIN produce 24 %–36 % less AOD and tend to misplace more aerosols in the PBL. The models generally underestimate AODs for measured AODs that are above 0.8, indicating their limitations at reproducing high AODs. The differences in the absolute AOD, FT AOD, and the vertical apportioning of AOD in different models highlight the need to continue improving the accuracy of modeled AOD distributions. These differences affect the sign and magnitude of the net aerosol radiative forcing, especially when aerosols are in contact with clouds.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

SITCOMTN-161: PSF assessment in the field of Abell 360 and shapeHSM shear profile using LSSTComCam data

The Rubin LSSTComCam on-sky campaign performed at the end of 2024 provided observations of the Abell 360 galaxy cluster; these data allow a preliminary study of cluster weak lensing analysis using Rubin Data Preview 1 (DP1) data. Among all the steps required for such analyses, accurate modeling of the PSF is essential. This work uses several diagnostics, mostly based on the residuals between the second moments of stars and the PSF model, to characterize the accuracy of the PSF modeling in the A360 field. We find the level of the residuals to be sufficiently low not to hinder the measurement of the tangential shear profile around A360. With a simple source selection process, we demonstrate that outputs of the LSST Science Pipelines can be used to detect the tangential shear profile in Abell 360 at the 3.6σ level, and our analysis indicates that contamination from PSF modeling systematics is negligible.

Dell'Antonio, Ian [Brown University]↗

Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

Hasselman, T. K.↗

Modeling the Swift BAT Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. (2014) is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of approximately greater than 97% (approximately less than 3% error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux which has an accuracy of 89:6% (10:4% error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of eta(sub 0) approximately 0.48(+0.41/-0.23) Gpc(exp -3) yr(exp -1) with power-law indices of eta(sub 1) approximately 1.7(+0.6/-0.5) and eta(sub 2) approximately -5.9(+5.7/-0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z(sub 1) approximately 6.8(+2.8/-3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting. The code used in this is analysis is publicly available online.

gamma rays: general↗

Modeling the Swift Bat Trigger Algorithm with Machine Learning

To draw inferences about gamma-ray burst (GRB) source populations based on Swift observations, it is essential to understand the detection efficiency of the Swift burst alert telescope (BAT). This study considers the problem of modeling the Swift / BAT triggering algorithm for long GRBs, a computationally expensive procedure, and models it using machine learning algorithms. A large sample of simulated GRBs from Lien et al. is used to train various models: random forests, boosted decision trees (with AdaBoost), support vector machines, and artificial neural networks. The best models have accuracies of greater than or equal to 97 percent (less than or equal to 3 percent error), which is a significant improvement on a cut in GRB flux, which has an accuracy of 89.6 percent (10.4 percent error). These models are then used to measure the detection efficiency of Swift as a function of redshift z, which is used to perform Bayesian parameter estimation on the GRB rate distribution. We find a local GRB rate density of n (sub 0) approaching 0.48 (sup plus 0.41) (sub minus 0.23) per cubic gigaparsecs per year with power-law indices of n (sub 1) approaching 1.7 (sup plus 0.6) (sub minus 0.5) and n (sub 2) approaching minus 5.9 (sup plus 5.7) (sub minus 0.1) for GRBs above and below a break point of z (redshift) (sub 1) approaching 6.8 (sup plus 2.8) (sub minus 3.2). This methodology is able to improve upon earlier studies by more accurately modeling Swift detection and using this for fully Bayesian model fitting.

gamma-ray burst: general – gamma-rays: general â↗