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NASA NTRS2007

Acoustic Prediction State of the Art Assessment

The acoustic assessment task for both the Subsonic Fixed Wing and the Supersonic projects under NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program was designed to assess the current state-of-the-art in noise prediction capability and to establish baselines for gauging future progress. The documentation of our current capabilities included quantifying the differences between predictions of noise from computer codes and measurements of noise from experimental tests. Quantifying the accuracy of both the computed and experimental results further enhanced the credibility of the assessment. This presentation gives sample results from codes representative of NASA s capabilities in aircraft noise prediction both for systems and components. These include semi-empirical, statistical, analytical, and numerical codes. System level results are shown for both aircraft and engines. Component level results are shown for a landing gear prototype, for fan broadband noise, for jet noise from a subsonic round nozzle, and for propulsion airframe aeroacoustic interactions. Additional results are shown for modeling of the acoustic behavior of duct acoustic lining and the attenuation of sound in lined ducts with flow.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Advanced Simulation and Computing: ASC FY24 Implementation Plan

The DOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP) is an integrated technical program for maintaining the safety, security, and reliability of the U.S. nuclear stockpile. The SSP incorporates nuclear test data, computational modeling and simulation, and experimental facilities to advance understanding of nuclear weapons. The suite of data analyzed comes from activities including previous nuclear tests, stockpile surveillance, experimental research, and development and engineering programs. This integrated national program requires the continued use of experimental facilities and the computational capabilities to support the SSP missions. These component parts, in addition to an appropriately scaled production capability, enable NNSA to support stockpile requirements. The ultimate goal of the SSP, and thus of the Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) program, is to ensure that the U.S. maintains a safe, secure, and effective strategic deterrent. The ASC program is a cornerstone of the SSP, providing simulation capabilities and computational resources to support the annual stockpile assessment and certification process, study advanced nuclear weapons design and manufacturing processes, analyze accident scenarios and weapons aging, and provide the tools to enable stockpile Life Extension Programs (LEPs) and the resolution of Significant Finding Investigations (SFIs). This work requires a balance of resources, including technical staff, hardware, simulation software, and computer science solutions. The ASC program focuses on increasing the predictive capabilities in a three-dimensional (3D) simulation environment while maintaining support to the SSP. The Program continues to improve its unique tools for understanding and solving progressively more difficult stockpile problems (sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific details), and quantifying critical margins and uncertainties. Resolving each issue requires increasingly difficult analyses because the aging process has progressively moved the stockpile further from the original test base. While the focus remains on the U.S. nuclear weapons program, where possible, the Program also enables the use of high-performance computing (HPC) and simulation tools to address broader national security needs, such as foreign nuclear weapon assessments and nuclear counterterrorism. The 2022 Nuclear Posture Review (NPR) calls for NNSA to “deliver a modern, adaptive nuclear security enterprise based on an integrated strategy for risk management, production-based resilience, science and technology innovation, and workforce initiatives.” Furthermore, “NNSA will establish a Science and Technology Innovation Initiative to accelerate the integration of science and technology (S&T) throughout its activities.” Executing this strategy necessitates the continued emphasis on developing and sustaining high-quality scientific and engineering staff, as well as supporting computational and experimental capabilities. These components constitute the foundation of the nuclear weapons program. The continued success of the SSP and LEPs is predicated upon the ability to credibly certify the stockpile, without a return to underground nuclear tests (UGTs). Shortly after the nuclear test moratorium entered into force in 1992, the Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) was established to provide an extensive simulation capability to underpin stockpile certification. While computing and simulation have always been essential to the success of the nuclear weapons program, the program goal of ASCI was to execute NNSA’s vision of using these tools in support of the stockpile stewardship mission. The ASCI program was essential to the successful demonstration of the SSP, providing critical nuclear weapons simulation and modeling capabilities. ASCI officially evolved into the ASC program in fiscal year (FY) 2005, but the mission remains essentially the same: provide the simulation and computational capabilities that underpin the ability to maintain a safe, secure, effective nuclear weapon stockpile, without returning to underground nuclear testing. The capabilities that the ASC program provides at the national laboratories play a vital role in the nuclear security enterprise and are necessary for fulfilling the stockpile stewardship and life extension requirements outlined for NNSA. The Program develops modern simulation tools that provide insights into stockpile aging issues, provide the computational and simulation tools that enable designers and analysts to certify the current stockpile and life-extended nuclear weapons, and inform the decision-making process when any modifications in nuclear warheads or the associated manufacturing processes are deemed necessary. Furthermore, ASC is enhancing the predictive simulation capabilities that are essential to evaluate weapons effects, design experiments, and ensure test readiness. The ASC program continues to improve its unique tools to solve stockpile problems— with a focus on sufficient resolution, dimensionality, and scientific detail—to enable Quantification of Margins and Uncertainties (QMU) and to resolve the increasingly difficult analyses needed for stockpile stewardship. The needs of the Stockpile Management and Production Modernization programs (formerly Directed Stockpile Work) also drive the requirements for simulation and computational resources. These requirements include planned LEPs, stockpile support activities, and mitigation efforts against the potential for technical surprise. All of the weapons within the current stockpile are in some stage of the life extension process. The simulation and computational capabilities are crucial for successful execution of these life extensions and for ensuring NNSA can certify these life-extended weapons without conducting a UGT.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS2007

Overview of Aircraft Noise Prediction Tools Assessment

The acoustic assessment task for both the Subsonic Fixed Wing and the Supersonic projects under NASA s Fundamental Aeronautics Program was designed to assess the current state-of-the-art in noise prediction capability and to establish baselines for gauging future progress. The documentation of our current capabilities included quantifying the differences between predictions of noise from computer codes and measurements of noise from experimental tests. Quantifying the accuracy of both the computed and experimental results further enhanced the credibility of the assessment. This presentation gives sample results from codes representative of NASA s capabilities in aircraft noise prediction at the system level and at the component level. These include semi-empirical, statistical, analytical, and numerical codes. An example of system level results is shown for an aircraft. Component level results are shown for airframe flaps and landing gear, for jet noise from a variety of nozzles, and for broadband fan noise. Additional results are shown for modeling of the acoustic behavior of duct acoustic lining and the attenuation of sound in lined ducts with flow.

Dahl, Milo D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Developing Metrics to Evaluate the Skill and Credibility of Downscaling

Major activities for this project consisted of three related elements: Comparing results using statistical downscaling to the dynamical downscaling performed by the UCLA (Dr. Alex Hall) team in the proposal Developing statistical downscaling methods for wind and near-surface humidity Evaluating differences in extremes across downscaling methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1992

Large-body impact and extinction in the Phanerozoic

The kill curve for Phanerozoic marine species is used to investigate large-body impact as a cause of species extinction. Current estimates of Phanerozoic impact rates are combined with the kill curve to produce an impact-kill curve, which predicts extinction levels from crater diameter, on the working assumption that impacts are responsible for all "pulsed" extinctions. By definition, pulsed extinction includes the approximately 60% of Phanerozoic extinctions that occurred in short-lived events having extinction rates greater than 5%. The resulting impact-kill curve is credible, thus justifying more thorough testing of the impact-extinction hypothesis. Such testing is possible but requires an exhaustive analysis of radiometric dating of Phanerozoic impact events.

Non-NASA Center↗

NASA NTRS2006

Determination of Extrapolation Distance With Pressure Signatures Measured at Two to Twenty Span Lengths From Two Low-Boom Models

A study was performed to determine a limiting separation distance for the extrapolation of pressure signatures from cruise altitude to the ground. The study was performed at two wind-tunnel facilities with two research low-boom wind-tunnel models designed to generate ground pressure signatures with "flattop" shapes. Data acquired at the first wind-tunnel facility showed that pressure signatures had not achieved the desired low-boom features for extrapolation purposes at separation distances of 2 to 5 span lengths. However, data acquired at the second wind-tunnel facility at separation distances of 5 to 20 span lengths indicated the "limiting extrapolation distance" had been achieved so pressure signatures could be extrapolated with existing codes to obtain credible predictions of ground overpressures.

Mack, Robert J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

NASA System Safety Handbook: System Safety Framework and Concepts for Implementation - Volume 1

System safety assessment is defined in NPR 8715.3C, NASA General Safety Program Requirements as a disciplined, systematic approach to the analysis of risks resulting from hazards that can affect humans, the environment, and mission assets. Achievement of the highest practicable degree of system safety is one of NASA's highest priorities. Traditionally, system safety assessment at NASA and elsewhere has focused on the application of a set of safety analysis tools to identify safety risks and formulate effective controls.1 Familiar tools used for this purpose include various forms of hazard analyses, failure modes and effects analyses, and probabilistic safety assessment (commonly also referred to as probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)). In the past, it has been assumed that to show that a system is safe, it is sufficient to provide assurance that the process for identifying the hazards has been as comprehensive as possible and that each identified hazard has one or more associated controls. The NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP) has made several statements in its annual reports supporting a more holistic approach. In 2006, it recommended that "... a comprehensive risk assessment, communication and acceptance process be implemented to ensure that overall launch risk is considered in an integrated and consistent manner." In 2009, it advocated for "... a process for using a risk-informed design approach to produce a design that is optimally and sufficiently safe." As a rationale for the latter advocacy, it stated that "... the ASAP applauds switching to a performance-based approach because it emphasizes early risk identification to guide designs, thus enabling creative design approaches that might be more efficient, safer, or both." For purposes of this preface, it is worth mentioning three areas where the handbook emphasizes a more holistic type of thinking. First, the handbook takes the position that it is important to not just focus on risk on an individual basis but to consider measures of aggregate safety risk and to ensure wherever possible that there be quantitative measures for evaluating how effective the controls are in reducing these aggregate risks. The term aggregate risk, when used in this handbook, refers to the accumulation of risks from individual scenarios that lead to a shortfall in safety performance at a high level: e.g., an excessively high probability of loss of crew, loss of mission, planetary contamination, etc. Without aggregated quantitative measures such as these, it is not reasonable to expect that safety has been optimized with respect to other technical and programmatic objectives. At the same time, it is fully recognized that not all sources of risk are amenable to precise quantitative analysis and that the use of qualitative approaches and bounding estimates may be appropriate for those risk sources. Second, the handbook stresses the necessity of developing confidence that the controls derived for the purpose of achieving system safety not only handle risks that have been identified and properly characterized but also provide a general, more holistic means for protecting against unidentified or uncharacterized risks. For example, while it is not possible to be assured that all credible causes of risk have been identified, there are defenses that can provide protection against broad categories of risks and thereby increase the chances that individual causes are contained. Third, the handbook strives at all times to treat uncertainties as an integral aspect of risk and as a part of making decisions. The term "uncertainty" here does not refer to an actuarial type of data analysis, but rather to a characterization of our state of knowledge regarding results from logical and physical models that approximate reality. Uncertainty analysis finds how the output parameters of the models are related to plausible variations in the input parameters and in the modeling assumptions. The evaluation of unrtainties represents a method of probabilistic thinking wherein the analyst and decision makers recognize possible outcomes other than the outcome perceived to be "most likely." Without this type of analysis, it is not possible to determine the worth of an analysis product as a basis for making decisions related to safety and mission success. In line with these considerations the handbook does not take a hazard-analysis-centric approach to system safety. Hazard analysis remains a useful tool to facilitate brainstorming but does not substitute for a more holistic approach geared to a comprehensive identification and understanding of individual risk issues and their contributions to aggregate safety risks. The handbook strives to emphasize the importance of identifying the most critical scenarios that contribute to the risk of not meeting the agreed-upon safety objectives and requirements using all appropriate tools (including but not limited to hazard analysis). Thereafter, emphasis shifts to identifying the risk drivers that cause these scenarios to be critical and ensuring that there are controls directed toward preventing or mitigating the risk drivers. To address these and other areas, the handbook advocates a proactive, analytic-deliberative, risk-informed approach to system safety, enabling the integration of system safety activities with systems engineering and risk management processes. It emphasizes how one can systematically provide the necessary evidence to substantiate the claim that a system is safe to within an acceptable risk tolerance, and that safety has been achieved in a cost-effective manner. The methodology discussed in this handbook is part of a systems engineering process and is intended to be integral to the system safety practices being conducted by the NASA safety and mission assurance and systems engineering organizations. The handbook posits that to conclude that a system is adequately safe, it is necessary to consider a set of safety claims that derive from the safety objectives of the organization. The safety claims are developed from a hierarchy of safety objectives and are therefore hierarchical themselves. Assurance that all the claims are true within acceptable risk tolerance limits implies that all of the safety objectives have been satisfied, and therefore that the system is safe. The acceptable risk tolerance limits are provided by the authority who must make the decision whether or not to proceed to the next step in the life cycle. These tolerances are therefore referred to as the decision maker's risk tolerances. In general, the safety claims address two fundamental facets of safety: 1) whether required safety thresholds or goals have been achieved, and 2) whether the safety risk is as low as possible within reasonable impacts on cost, schedule, and performance. The latter facet includes consideration of controls that are collective in nature (i.e., apply generically to broad categories of risks) and thereby provide protection against unidentified or uncharacterized risks.

Dezfuli, Homayoon↗

NASA NTRS2012

Failure Mode Analysis of V-Shaped Pyrotechnically Actuated Valves

Current V-shaped stainless steel pyrovalve initiators have rectified many of the deficiencies of the heritage Y-shaped aluminum design. However, a credible failure mode still exists for dual simultaneous initiator (NSI) firings in which low temperatures were detected at the booster cap and less consistent ignition was observed than when a single initiator was fired. In order to asses this issue, a numerical framework has been developed for predicting the flow through pyrotechnically actuated valves. This framework includes a fully coupled solution of the gas-phase equation with a non-equilibrium dispersed phase for solid particles as well as the capability to model conjugate gradient heat transfer to the booster cap. Through a hierarchy of increasingly complex simulations, a hypothesis for the failure mode of the nearly simultaneous dual NSI firings has been proven. The simulations indicate that the failure mode for simultaneous dual NSI firings may be caused by flow interactions between the flame channels. The shock waves from each initiator interact in the booster cavity resulting in a high pressure that prevents the gas and particulate velocity from rising in the booster cap region. This impedes the bulk of the particulate phase from impacting the booster cap and reduces the heat transfer to the booster cap since the particles do not impact it. Heat transfer calculations to the solid metal indicate that gas-phase convective heat transfer may not be adequate by itself and that energy transfer from the particulate phase may be crucial for the booster cap burn through.

Sachdev, Jai S.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Constraints on f ( R ) gravity from thermal-Sunyaev-Zel’dovich-effect-selected SPT galaxy clusters and weak lensing mass calibration from DES and HST

We present constraints on the f ( R ) gravity model using a sample of 1005 galaxy clusters in the redshift range 0.25–1.78 that have been selected through the thermal Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect from South Pole Telescope data and subjected to optical and near-infrared confirmation with the multicomponent matched filter algorithm. We employ weak gravitational lensing mass calibration from the Dark Energy Survey Year 3 data for 688 clusters at z < 0.95 and from the Hubble Space Telescope for 39 clusters with 0.6 < z < 1.7 . Our cluster sample is a powerful probe of f ( R ) gravity, because this model predicts a scale-dependent enhancement in the growth of structure, which impacts the halo mass function (HMF) at cluster mass scales. To account for these modified gravity effects on the HMF, our analysis employs a semianalytical approach calibrated with numerical simulations. Combining calibrated cluster counts with primary cosmic microwave background temperature and polarization anisotropy measurements from the Planck 2018 release, we derive robust constraints on the f ( R ) parameter f R 0 . Our results, log 10 | f R 0 | < − 5.32 at the 95% credible level, are the tightest current constraints on f ( R ) gravity from cosmological scales. This upper limit rules out f ( R ) -like deviations from general relativity that result in more than a ∼ 20 % enhancement of the cluster population on mass scales M 200 c > 3 × 10 14 M ⊙ . Published by the American Physical Society 2025

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS1988

An experiment in software reliability: Additional analyses using data from automated replications

A study undertaken to collect software error data of laboratory quality for use in the development of credible methods for predicting the reliability of software used in life-critical applications is summarized. The software error data reported were acquired through automated repetitive run testing of three independent implementations of a launch interceptor condition module of a radar tracking problem. The results are based on 100 test applications to accumulate a sufficient sample size for error rate estimation. The data collected is used to confirm the results of two Boeing studies reported in NASA-CR-165836 Software Reliability: Repetitive Run Experimentation and Modeling, and NASA-CR-172378 Software Reliability: Additional Investigations into Modeling With Replicated Experiments, respectively. That is, the results confirm the log-linear pattern of software error rates and reject the hypothesis of equal error rates per individual fault. This rejection casts doubt on the assumption that the program's failure rate is a constant multiple of the number of residual bugs; an assumption which underlies some of the current models of software reliability. data raises new questions concerning the phenomenon of interacting faults.

Dunham, Janet R.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing

This paper presents the results of a systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using data collected during the first year of running the Dark Energy Survey experiment. The study uses Lambda cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) as the cosmological model and two-point correlation functions for the weak lensing (WL) analysis. The results in this paper show that, independent of the WL analysis, projection biases of more than 1 σ exist and are a function of the position of the true values of the parameters h , n s , Ω b , and Ω ν h 2 with respect to their prior probabilities. For cosmic shear, and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing, this study shows that the coverage probability of the 68.27% credible intervals ranges from as high as 93% to as low as 16% and that these credible intervals are inflated, on average, by 29% for cosmic shear and 20% for the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. The results of the study also show that, in six out of nine tested cases, the reduction in error bars obtained by transforming credible intervals into confidence intervals is equivalent to an increase in the amount of data by a factor of 3.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Search for double-beta decay of $$\mathrm {^{130}Te}$$ to the $$0^+$$ states of $$\mathrm {^{130}Xe}$$ with CUORE

Abstract The CUORE experiment is a large bolometric array searching for the lepton number violating neutrino-less double beta decay ( $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β ) in the isotope $$\mathrm {^{130}Te}$$ 130 Te . In this work we present the latest results on two searches for the double beta decay (DBD) of $$\mathrm {^{130}Te}$$ 130 Te to the first $$0^{+}_2$$ 0 2 + excited state of $$\mathrm {^{130}Xe}$$ 130 Xe : the $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β decay and the Standard Model-allowed two-neutrinos double beta decay ( $$2\nu \beta \beta $$ 2 ν β β ). Both searches are based on a 372.5 kg $$\times $$ × yr TeO $$_2$$ 2 exposure. The de-excitation gamma rays emitted by the excited Xe nucleus in the final state yield a unique signature, which can be searched for with low background by studying coincident events in two or more bolometers. The closely packed arrangement of the CUORE crystals constitutes a significant advantage in this regard. The median limit setting sensitivities at 90% Credible Interval (C.I.) of the given searches were estimated as $$\mathrm {S^{0\nu }_{1/2} = 5.6 \times 10^{24} \, \mathrm {yr}}$$ S 1 / 2 0 ν = 5.6 × 10 24 yr for the $${0\nu \beta \beta }$$ 0 ν β β decay and $$\mathrm {S^{2\nu }_{1/2} = 2.1 \times 10^{24} \, \mathrm {yr}}$$ S 1 / 2 2 ν = 2.1 × 10 24 yr for the $${2\nu \beta \beta }$$ 2 ν β β decay. No significant evidence for either of the decay modes was observed and a Bayesian lower bound at $$90\%$$ 90 % C.I. on the decay half lives is obtained as: $$\mathrm {(T_{1/2})^{0\nu }_{0^+_2} > 5.9 \times 10^{24} \, \mathrm {yr}}$$ ( T 1 / 2 ) 0 2 + 0 ν > 5.9 × 10 24 yr for the $$0\nu \beta \beta $$ 0 ν β β mode and $$\mathrm {(T_{1/2})^{2\nu }_{0^+_2} > 1.3 \times 10^{24} \, \mathrm {yr}}$$ ( T 1 / 2 ) 0 2 + 2 ν > 1.3 × 10 24 yr for the $$2\nu \beta \beta $$ 2 ν β β mode. These represent the most stringent limits on the DBD of $$^{130}$$ 130 Te to excited states and improve by a factor $$\sim 5$$ ∼ 5 the previous results on this process.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Robust verification of stochastic simulation codes

We introduce a robust verification tool for computational codes, which we call Stochastic Robust Extrapolation based Error Quantification (StREEQ). Unlike the prevalent Grid Convergence Index (GCI) [1] method, our approach is suitable for both stochastic and deterministic computational codes and is generalizable to any number of discretization variables. Building on ideas introduced in the Robust Verification [2] approach, we estimate the converged solution and orders of convergence with uncertainty using multiple fits of a discretization error model. In contrast to Robust Verification, we perform these fits to many bootstrap samples yielding a larger set of predictions with smoother statistics. Here, bootstrap resampling is performed on the lack-of-fit errors for deterministic code responses, and directly on the noisy data set for stochastic responses. This approach lends a degree of robustness to the overall results, capable of yielding precise verification results for sufficiently resolved data sets, and appropriately expanding the uncertainty when the data set does not support a precise result. For stochastic responses, a credibility assessment is also performed to give the analyst an indication of the trustworthiness of the results. Furthermore, this approach is suitable for both code and solution verification, and is particularly useful for solution verification of high-consequence simulations..

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

The Fluid Dynamics Uncertainty Quantification Challenge Problem: XFOIL vs. MFOIL

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) has become more critical in aerospace engineering due to the growing dependence on computational tools for design optimization and performance analyses of aerospace vehicles. Even though the significance of UQ in assessing the credibility of computational analyses is well recognized, its costs and complexity impede its integration into standard practices, particularly in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and other fluid analyses. This paper presents a UQ study for low-fidelity computational aerodynamics analyses with XFOIL and mfoil (i.e., the MATLAB version of XFOIL with several implementation modifications); these tools are utilized widely in both research and education. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: 1) improved precision in quantifying the uncertainty of the baseline Monte Carlo results used to benchmark surrogate modeling techniques for UQ, 2) quantification of the effect of the implementation differences between XFOIL and mfoil on solution quantities of interest (QoIs), such as lift and pitching moment coefficients, and 3) development of an open-source UQ library for use with XFOIL and mfoil, which has educational values and helps promote UQ for fluid analyses with aerospace applications. Results and discussions revolve around cases 1-4 of the challenge problem posed by the AIAA Fluid Dynamics Technical Committee’s Uncertainty Quantification Discussion Group (UQDG). In case 3, this work employs CFDverify, an open-source solution verification software, to quantify the discretization error and evaluate the extrapolated QoIs based on the grid convergence index (GCI). This UQ study differentiates itself from previous studies in the rigor of handling baseline Monte Carlo uncertainty and in including mfoil, which is a more accessible alternative to XFOIL. Finally, despite the growing computing power, low-fidelity computational tools remain valuable, such as for aerodynamic shape optimization at Mach numbers below 0.65 and low-to-mid Reynolds numbers.

Lay, Aidan S [University of Tennessee, Knoxville (↗

DOE OSTI2024

Algorithmically detected rain-on-snow flood events in different climate datasets: a case study of the Susquehanna River basin

Abstract. Rain-on-snow (RoS) events in regions of ephemeral snowpack – such as the northeastern United States – can be key drivers of cool-season flooding. We describe an automated algorithm for detecting basin-scale RoS events in gridded climate data by generating an area-averaged time series and then searching for periods of concurrent precipitation, surface runoff, and snowmelt exceeding predefined thresholds. When evaluated using historical data over the Susquehanna River basin (SRB), the technique credibly finds RoS events in published literature and flags events that are followed by anomalously high streamflow as measured by gauge data along the river. When comparing four different datasets representing the same 21-year period, we find large differences in RoS event magnitude and frequency, primarily driven by differences in estimated surface runoff and snowmelt. Using dataset-specific thresholds improves agreement between datasets but does not account for all discrepancies. We show that factors such as meteorological forcing and coupling frequency, as well as choice of land surface model, play roles in how data products capture these compound extremes and suggest care is to be taken when climate datasets are used by stakeholders for operational decision-making.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Does Bayesian model averaging improve polynomial extrapolations? Two toy problems as tests

We assess the accuracy of Bayesian polynomial extrapolations from small parameter values, x, to large values of x. We consider a set of polynomials of fixed order, intended as a proxy for a fixed-order effective field theory (EFT) description of data. We employ Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to combine results from different order polynomials (EFT orders). Our study considers two 'toy problems' where the underlying function used to generate data sets is known. We use Bayesian parameter estimation to extract the polynomial coefficients that describe these data at low x. A 'naturalness' prior is imposed on the coefficients, so that they are $\mathcal{O}(1)$. We BMA different polynomial degrees by weighting each according to its Bayesian evidence and compare the predictive performance of this BMA with that of the individual polynomials. In conclusion, the credibility intervals on the BMA forecast have the stated coverage properties more consistently than does the highest evidence polynomial, though BMA does not necessarily outperform every polynomial.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Fusion-Enabled Pluto Orbiter and Lander

The Pluto orbiter mission proposed here is credible and exciting. The benefits to this and all outer-planet and interstellar-probe missions are difficult to overstate. The enabling technology, Direct Fusion Drive, is a unique fusion engine concept based on the Princeton Field-Reversed Configuration (PFRC) fusion reactor under development at the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory. The truly game-changing levels of thrust and power in a modestly sized package could integrate with our current launch infrastructure while radically expanding the science capability of these missions. During this Phase I effort, we made great strides in modeling the engine efficiency, thrust, and specific impulse and analyzing feasible trajectories. Based on 2D fluid modeling of the fusion reactors outer stratum, its scrape-off-layer (SOL), we estimate achieving 2.5 to 5 N of thrust for each megawatt of fusion power, reaching a specific impulse, Isp, of about 10,000 s. Supporting this model are particle-in-cell calculations of energy transfer from the fusion products to the SOL electrons. Subsequently, this energy is transferred to the ions as they expand through the magnetic nozzle and beyond. Our point solution for the Pluto mission now delivers 1000 kg of payload to Pluto orbit in 3.75 years using 7.5 N constant thrust. This could potentially be achieved with a single 1 MW engine. The departure spiral from Earth orbit and insertion spiral to Pluto orbit require only a small portion of the total delta-V. Departing from low Earth orbit reduces mission cost while increasing available mission mass. The payload includes a lander, which utilizes a standard green propellant engine for the landing sequence. The lander has about 4 square meters of solar panels mounted on a gimbal that allows it to track the orbiter, which beams 30 to 50 kW of power using a 1080 nm laser. Optical communication provides dramatically high data rates back to Earth. Our mass modeling investigations revealed that if current high-temperature superconductors are utilized at liquid nitrogen temperatures, they drive the mass of the engine, partly because of the shielding required to maintain their critical temperature. Second generation materials are thinner but the superconductor is a very thin layer deposited on a substrate with additional layers of metallic classing. Tremendous research is being performed on a variety of these superconducting materials, and new irradiation data is now available. This raises the possibility of operating nearfuture high-temperature superconductors at a moderately low temperature to dramatically reduce the amount of shielding required. At the same time, a first generation space engine may require low-temperature superconductors, which are higher TRL and have been designed for space coils before (AMS-02 experiment for the ISS). We performed detailed analysis of the startup system and thermal conversion system components. The ideal working fluid was determined to be a blend of Helium and Xenon. No significant problems were identified with these subsystems. For the RF system, we conceived of a new, more efficient design using state-of-the-art switch amplifiers, which have the potential for 100% efficiency. This report presents details of our engine and trajectory analyses, mass modeling efforts, and updated vehicle designs.

temperature↗

NASA NTRS1997

Comparative Soot Diagnostics Experiment Looks at the Smoky World of Microgravity Combustion

From an economic standpoint, soot is one of the most important combustion intermediates and products. It is a major industrial product and is the dominant medium for radiant heat transport in most flames used to generate heat and power. The nonbuoyant structure of most flames of practical interest (turbulent flames) makes the understanding of soot processes in microgravity flames important to our ability to predict fire behavior on Earth. In addition, fires in spacecraft are considered a credible possibility. To respond to this risk, NASA has flown fire (or smoke) detectors on Skylab and the space shuttles and included them in the International Space Station design. The design of these detectors, however, was based entirely on normal gravity (1g) data. The detector used in the shuttle fleet is an ionization detector, whereas the system planned for the space station uses forward scattering of near-infrared light. The ionization detector, which is similar to smoke detectors used in homes, has a comparative advantage for submicron particulates. In fact, the space shuttle model uses a separation system that makes it blind to particles larger than a micron (believed to be dust). In the larger size range, the lightscattering detector is most sensitive. Without microgravity smoke data, the difference in the particle size sensitivities of the two detectors cannot be evaluated. As part of the Comparative Soot Diagnostics (CSD) experiment, these systems were tested to determine their response to particulates generated during long periods of low gravity. This experiment provided the first such measurements toward understanding soot processes on Earth and for designing and implementing improved spacecraft smoke detection systems. The objectives of CSD were to examine how particulates form from a variety of sources and to quantify the performance of several diagnostic techniques. The sources tested included four overheated materials (paper, silicone rubber, Teflon-coated (DuPont) wire, and Kapton-coated (DuPont) wires), each tested at three heating rates, and a candle tested at three air velocities. Paper, silicone rubber, and wire insulation, materials found in spacecraft crew cabins, were selected because of their different smoke properties. The candle yielded hydrocarbon soot typical of many 1g flames. Four diagnostic techniques were employed: thermophoretic sampling collected particulates for size analysis; laser light extinction measurements near the source tallied total particulate production; and laser light scattering and ionization detector measurements far from the particulate source provided data for evaluating the performance of smoke detection systems for these particulate sources.

Urban, David L.↗