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Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of parameter values. We suggest 'consensus' parameter values for military and civilian populations in the form of normal distributions so that they may be further used in other applications. Representing the parameter values as distributions, instead of point values, allows us to capture the uncertainty and scatter in the parameters. Quantifying the uncertainty allows us to use these models further in inverse problems, predictions under uncertainty and various other studies involving risk.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MULTILEVEL MONTE CARLO (MLMC) SIMULATIONS: PERFORMANCE RESULTS FOR SPE10 (XY SLICES)

In this report we first describe a generic multilevel Monte Carlo method and then illustrate its superior performance over a traditional single-level Monte Carlo method for second order elliptic PDEs corresponding to two-dimensional layers in (x, y)-direction of the Tenth SPE Comparative Solution project (SPE 10) which gives high-contrast permeability coefficients. The SPE10 data set is used as a coarse level in the Monte Carlo method and the respective permeability coefficient k (provided in the SPE10 dataset) is used as a mean in the simulation. The actual coefficients are drawn based on a KL-expansion assuming that the log-mean is perturbed by a log-normal distributed samples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Pu239 Cross-Section Variations Based on Experimental Uncertainties and Covariances

Algorithms and software have been developed for producing variations in plutonium-239 neutron cross sections based on experimental uncertainties and covariances. The varied cross-section sets may be produced as random samples from the multi-variate normal distribution defined by an experimental mean vector and covariance matrix, or they may be produced as Latin-Hypercube/Orthogonal-Array samples (based on the same means and covariances) for use in parametrized studies. The variations obey two classes of constraints that are obligatory for cross-section sets and which put related constraints on the mean vector and covariance matrix that detemine the sampling. Because the experimental means and covariances do not obey some of these constraints to sufficient precision, imposing the constraints requires modifying the experimental mean vector and covariance matrix. Modification is done with an algorithm based on linear algebra that minimizes changes to the means and covariances while insuring that the operations that impose the different constraints do not conflict with each other.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Feature Selection and Inferential Procedures for Video Data [Slides]

With the rise of electronic and high-dimensional data, new and innovative feature detection and statistical methods are required to perform accurate and meaningful statistical analysis of these datasets that provide unique statistical challenges. In the area of feature detection, much of the recent feature detection research in the computer vision community has focused on deep learning methods, which require large amounts of labeled training data. However, in many application areas, training data is very limited and often difficult to obtain. We develop methods for fast, unsupervised, precise feature detection for video data based on optical flows, edge detection, and clustering methods. We also use pretrained neural networks and interpretable linear models to extract features using very limited training data. In the area of statistics, while high-dimensional data analysis has been a main focus of recent statistical methodological research, much focus has been on populations of high-dimensional vectors, rather than populations of high-dimensional tensors, which are three-dimensional arrays that can be used to model dependent images, such as images taken of the same person or ripped video frames. Our feature detection method is a non-model-based method that fusses information from dense optical flow, raw image pixels, and frame differences to generate detections. Our hypothesis testing methods are based on the assumption that dependent images are concatenated into a tensor that follows a tensor normal distribution, and from this assumption, we derive likelihood-ratio, score, and regression-based tests for one- and multiple-sample testing problems. Our methods will be illustrated on simulated and real datasets. We conclude this report with comments on the relationship between feature detection and hypothesis testing methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Time Series Dimension Reduction for Surrogate Models of Port Scanning Cyber Emulations

Surrogate model development is a key resource in the scientific modeling community for providing computational expedience when simulating complex systems without loss of great fidelity. The initial step to development of a surrogate model is identification of the primary governing components of the system. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used data science technique that provides inspection of such driving factors, when the objective for modeling is to capture the greatest sources of variance inherent to a dataset. Although an efficient linear dimension reduction tool, PCA makes the fundamental assumption that the data is continuous and normally distributed. Thus, it provides ideal performance when these conditions are met. In the case for which cyber emulations provide realizations of a port scanning scenario, the data to be modeled follows a discrete time series function comprised of monotonically increasing piece-wise constant steps. The sources of variance are related to the timing and magnitude of these steps. Therefore, we consider using XPCA, an extension to PCA for continuous and discrete random variates. This report provides the documentation of the trade-offs between the PCA and XPCA linear dimension reduction algorithms, for the intended purpose to identify key components of greatest variance in our time series data. These components will ultimately provide the basis for future surrogate models of port scanning cyber emulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Performance Assessment for the E-Area Low-Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility at the Savannah River Site: Appendix I

As stated in Section 9.1.2.2, a final inventory of parent radionuclides is projected for every DU at the time of facility operational closure in 2065. These final closure inventories are upper-bound estimates wherein each DU is assumed to reach its activity capacity. Composition vectors based on existing DU inventories are employed to estimate the final compositions of all existing and future DUs. Specifically, (1) the existing DU compositions are assumed to remain constant; (2) future DUs are assigned averaged existing compositions based on appropriately averaged DUs. This information is detailed in Appendix H, Section H.7. In addition, the variability in composition among existing DUs is used to generate log-normal distributions for uncertainty quantification, which is detailed in Section I.1.1.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Development and Integration of a Stochastic Clad Damage Propagation Model into PRONGHORN-SC Subchannel Analysis Code

The failure of fuel pins in nuclear reactors is intrinsically stochastic. Typically, a combination of variation in manufacturing that affects the material characteristics and the fuel assembly dimensions, variation in operating conditions, such as local power, coolant flow rate, and irradiation induced changes in material properties lead to a large uncertainty in failure margin of the fuel pins. Failure, therefore, may occur in exceptional pins with adverse combinations of these variations. Upon a metal fuel pin (U-Pu-Zr/HT9) failure, depressurization of the fuel pin takes place by release of fission gas, liquid sodium bond, and potentially solid fuel particles or molten/eutectic fuel droplets through the hole in cladding. The effect of a fission gas jet on neighbor fuel pins and possible propagation of a clad damage during normal operation was studied experimentally in 1970s and it was found that the post-failure fission gas jet insulates the jet impingement area of the target fuel pin surface and could increase the target pin’s surface temperature by as much as 100 – 200 K during the failed pin depressurization. It was concluded that the effect should not lead to fuel pin failure propagation during normal operation. In accident scenarios of sodium and lead fast reactors such as Unprotected Loss-Of-Flow (ULOF) or Unprotected Transient Over Power (UTOP), the fuel pins can be subjected to higher clad temperatures and fuel pin pressures or fuel clad mechanical/chemical interaction where thermal creep margin becomes significantly lower compared to the normal operation conditions. Therefore, possible stochastic failure and the post-failure fission gas/fuel jet impingement could be critical in order to predict fuel pin failure propagation. Pin depressurization due to fission gas release may degrade the heat transfer by formation of a gas blanket on a neighboring pin surface, which is a local phenomenon, and by causing coolant flow deceleration and starvation, which could affect a surrounding region as well. Furthermore, the potential presence of solid fuel particles or molten fuel at the time of clad failure could boost post-failure jet induced degradation even further. The present study models the U-Pu-Zr/HT9 metal fuel pin failure and stochastic clad damage propagation by biased sampling based on a Cumulative Damage Fraction (CDF) type clad failure criterion and the normal distribution of fuel failure probability density as a function of logarithm of Cumulative Damage Fraction. In addition, the effect of post-failure fission gas jet on heat transfer degradation is modeled for the target pins. This model is called stochastic Clad Damage Propagation (CDAP). The CDAP model is now fully integrated into developmental version of PRONGHORN-SC subchannel analysis code, allowing for modeling local failures and its propagation potential. Section 2 describes the components of the CDAP models. Section 3 describes the model implementation to PRONGHORN-SC and input specifications. Section 4 describes the CDAP model validation coupled to PRONGHORN-SC.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Building ControlScore: General Service Administration Office Building Deployment

Improvements to building control systems can lead to energy savings and increased occupant comfort. In an optimized system, process variables such as air temperature will closely follow their desired setpoints and avoid excess energy use. Typically, experts must manually inspect individual control loops to identify poor performance and opportunities for improvement. However, this approach is difficult in modern buildings that have a prohibitively large number of controllers. To address this issue, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) created the ControlScore concept, which takes operating data from the many controllers within a building and generates standardized scores for each loop on a scale of 0 to 10 (a score of 0 indicates poor control, a score of 10 indicates good control). PNNL applied the Building ControlScore application to all available data from a General Services Administration office building within the period of January 1, 2023, to March 9, 2023. The building scored a 4.7 overall, with all 74 of the building’s loops fitting a roughly normal distribution centered around 5. These results indicate that the analyzed systems have below-average performance with room for improvement, especially in the poorly scored systems. Airflow loops tended to have much lower scores than zone temperature loops. The lowest and highest performing systems in the building section were identified, as were all loops with a score less than 1. While the ControlScore identifies loops and systems that aren’t meeting their designated setpoints, it does not indicate the cause of those issues. For example, consider a supply air terminal unit’s airflow loop that received a low score due to it delivering less air than specified by the setpoint. The lower-than-desired airflow could be due to equipment limitations (e.g., the terminal unit or duct serving is too small to accommodate that airflow), malfunctioning equipment (e.g., a stuck damper or bad sensor), or something else entirely. The ControlScore does not diagnose problems it simply identifies the symptoms that can be explored and addressed by building operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

LiG Metrology, Correlated Error, and the Integrity of the Global Surface Air-Temperature Record

The published 95% uncertainty of the global surface air-temperature anomaly (GSATA) record through 1980 is impossibly less than the 2σ = ±0.25 °C lower limit of laboratory resolution of 1 °C/division liquid-in-glass (LiG) thermometers. The ~0.7 °C/century Joule-drift of lead- and soft-glass thermometer bulbs renders unreliable the entire historical air-temperature record through the 19th century. A circa 1900 Baudin meteorological spirit thermometer bulb exhibited intense Pb X-ray emission lines (10.55, 12.66, and 14.76 keV). Uncorrected LiG thermometer non-linearity leaves 1σ = ±0.27 °C uncertainty in land-surface air temperatures prior to 1981. The 2σ = ±0.43 °C from LiG resolution and non-linearity obscures most of the 20th century GSATA trend. Systematic sensor-measurement errors are highly pair-wise correlated, possibly across hundreds of km. Non-normal distributions of bucket and engine-intake difference SSTs disconfirm the assumption of random measurement error. Semivariogram analysis of ship SST measurements yields half the error difference mean, ±½Δε 1,2, not the error mean. Transfer-function adjustment following a change of land station air-temperature sensor eliminates measurement independence and forward-propagates the antecedent uncertainty. LiG resolution limits, non-linearity, and sensor field calibrations yield GSATA mean ±2σ RMS uncertainties of, 1900–1945, ±1.7 °C; 1946–1980, ±2.1 °C; 1981–2004, ±2.0 °C; and 2005–2010, ±1.6 °C. Finally, the 20th century (1900–1999) GSATA, 0.74 ± 1.94 °C, does not convey any information about rate or magnitude of temperature change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Objective Phenotyping of Root System Architecture Using Image Augmentation and Machine Learning in Alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.)

Active breeding programs specifically for root system architecture (RSA) phenotypes remain rare; however, breeding for branch and taproot types in the perennial crop alfalfa is ongoing. Phenotyping in this and other crops for active RSA breeding has mostly used visual scoring of specific traits or subjective classification into different root types. While image-based methods have been developed, translation to applied breeding is limited. This research is aimed at developing and comparing image-based RSA phenotyping methods using machine and deep learning algorithms for objective classification of 617 root images from mature alfalfa plants collected from the field to support the ongoing breeding efforts. Our results show that unsupervised machine learning tends to incorrectly classify roots into a normal distribution with most lines predicted as the intermediate root type. Encouragingly, random forest and TensorFlow-based neural networks can classify the root types into branch-type, taproot-type, and an intermediate taproot-branch type with 86% accuracy. With image augmentation, the prediction accuracy was improved to 97%. Coupling the predicted root type with its prediction probability will give breeders a confidence level for better decisions to advance the best and exclude the worst lines from their breeding program. This machine and deep learning approach enables accurate classification of the RSA phenotypes for genomic breeding of climate-resilient alfalfa.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

THE X-RAY LUMINOSITY FUNCTION OF LOW MASS X-RAY BINARIES IN EARLY-TYPE GALAXIES, THEIR METAL-RICH, AND METAL-POOR GLOBULAR CLUSTERS

We present the X-ray luminosity function (XLF) of low-mass X-ray binaries (LMXBs) in the globular clusters (GCs) and fields of seven early-type galaxies. These galaxies are selected to have both deep Chandra observations, which allow their LMXB populations to be observed to X-ray luminosities of 10{sup 37}–10{sup 38} erg s{sup −1}, and Hubble Space Telescope optical mosaics that enable the X-ray sources to be separated into field LMXBs, GC LMXBs, and contaminating background and foreground sources. We find that at all luminosities the number of field LMXBs per stellar mass is similar in these galaxies. This suggests that the field LMXB populations in these galaxies are not effected by the GC specific frequency, and that properties such as binary fraction and the stellar initial mass function are either similar across the sample or change in a way that does not affect the number of LMXBs. We compare the XLF of the field LMXBs to that of the GC LMXBs and find that they are significantly different with a p-value of 3 × 10{sup −6} (equivalent to 4.7σ for a normal distribution). The difference is such that the XLF of the GC LMXBs is flatter than that of the field LMXBs, with the GCs hosting relatively more bright sources and fewer faint sources. A comparison of the XLF of the metal-rich and metal-poor GCs hints that the metal-poor clusters may have more bright LMXBs, but the difference is not statistically significant.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

THE IONIZED GAS IN NEARBY GALAXIES AS TRACED BY THE [NII] 122 AND 205 μm TRANSITIONS

The [N ii] 122 and 205 μ m transitions are powerful tracers of the ionized gas in the interstellar medium. By combining data from 21 galaxies selected from the Herschel KINGFISH and Beyond the Peak surveys, we have compiled 141 spatially resolved regions with a typical size of ∼1 kpc, with observations of both [N ii] far-infrared lines. We measure [N ii] 122/205 line ratios in the ∼0.6–6 range, which corresponds to electron gas densities of n {sub e} ∼ 1–300 cm{sup −3}, with a median value of n {sub e} = 30 cm{sup −3}. Variations in the electron density within individual galaxies can be as high as a factor of ∼50, frequently with strong radial gradients. We find that n {sub e} increases as a function of infrared color, dust-weighted mean starlight intensity, and star-formation rate (SFR) surface density (Σ{sub SFR}). As the intensity of the [N ii] transitions is related to the ionizing photon flux, we investigate their reliability as tracers of the SFR. We derive relations between the [N ii] emission and SFR in the low-density limit and in the case of a log-normal distribution of densities. The scatter in the correlation between [N ii] surface brightness and Σ{sub SFR} can be understood as a property of the n {sub e} distribution. For regions with n {sub e} close to or higher than the [N ii] line critical densities, the low-density limit [N ii]-based SFR calibration systematically underestimates the SFR because the [N ii] emission is collisionally quenched. Finally, we investigate the relation between [N ii] emission, SFR, and n {sub e} by comparing our observations to predictions from the MAPPINGS-III code.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Stellar Proper Motions in the Orion Nebula Cluster

The Orion Nebula Cluster (ONC) is the nearest site of ongoing massive star formation, which allows us to study the kinematics and dynamics of the region in detail and constrain star formation theories. Using HST ACS/WFPC2/WFC3IR and Keck II NIRC2 data, we have measured the proper motions of 701 stars within an ∼6′ × 6′ field of view around the center of the ONC. We have found more than 10 escaping star candidates, concentrated predominantly at the core of the cluster. The proper motions of the bound stars are consistent with a normal distribution, albeit elongated north–south along the Orion filament, with proper-motion dispersions of (σ{sub μ,α{sup ∗}},σ{sub μ,δ})=(0.83±0.02,1.12±0.03) mas yr{sup −1} or intrinsic velocity dispersions of (σ{sub v,α{sup ∗}},σ{sub v,δ})=(1.57±0.04,2.12±0.06) km s{sup −1} assuming a distance of 400 pc to the ONC. The cluster shows no evidence for tangential-to-radial anisotropy. Our velocity dispersion profile agrees with the prediction from the observed stellar + gas density profile from Da Rio et al., indicating that the ONC is in virial equilibrium. This finding suggests that the cluster was formed with a low star formation efficiency per dynamical timescale based on comparisons with current star formation theories. Our survey also recovered high-velocity IR sources BN, x and n in the BN/KL region. The estimated location of the first two sources ∼500 yr ago agrees with that of the radio source I, consistent with their proposed common origin from a multistellar disintegration. However, source n appears to have a small proper motion and is unlikely to have been involved in the event.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Massive warm/hot galaxy coronae as probed by UV/X-ray oxygen absorption and emission. I. Basic model

We construct an analytic phenomenological model for extended warm/hot gaseous coronae of L{sub *} galaxies. We consider UV O vi Cosmic Origins Spectrograph (COS)-Halos absorption line data in combination with Milky Way (MW) X-ray O vii and O viii absorption and emission. We fit these data with a single model representing the COS-Halos galaxies and a Galactic corona. Our model is multi-phased, with hot and warm gas components, each with a (turbulent) log-normal distribution of temperatures and densities. The hot gas, traced by the X-ray absorption and emission, is in hydrostatic equilibrium in an MW gravitational potential. The median temperature of the hot gas is 1.5×10{sup 6} K and the mean hydrogen density is ∼5×10{sup −5} cm{sup −3}. The warm component as traced by the O vi, is gas that has cooled out of the high density tail of the hot component. The total warm/hot gas mass is high and is 1.2×10{sup 11} M{sub ⊙}. The gas metallicity we require to reproduce the oxygen ion column densities is 0.5 solar. The warm O vi component has a short cooling time (∼2×10{sup 8} years), as hinted by observations. The hot component, however, is ∼80% of the total gas mass and is relatively long-lived, with t{sub cool}∼7×10{sup 9} years. Our model supports suggestions that hot galactic coronae can contain significant amounts of gas. These reservoirs may enable galaxies to continue forming stars steadily for long periods of time and account for “missing baryons” in galaxies in the local universe.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

X-ray counterpart of gravitational waves due to binary neutron star mergers: light curves, luminosity function, and event rate density

Zhang proposed a type of GRB-less X-ray transient associated with double neutron star (NS–NS) mergers under the conjecture of a rapidly spinning magnetar merger product with the line of sight off the short gamma-ray burst (GRB) jet. We investigate possible light curves of these transients by considering different observers’ viewing angles. We perform Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the peak luminosity function (LF) and event rate density of these X-ray transients. By considering that a fraction of massive neutron stars may be supra-massive and later collapse into black holes after spinning down, we investigate how the predicted LF depends on the equation of state (EoS) of the central object and the geometry of the system. In general, the LF can be fit by two log-normal distributions peaking around 10{sup 46.4} and 10{sup 49.6} erg s{sup −1}, corresponding to the trapped and free zones, respectively. For the majority of the EoS models, the current non-detection is consistent with having a free zone solid angle, at most a few times the solid angle of the short GRB jet. The event rate density of these X-ray transients is around a few tens of Gpc{sup −3} yr{sup −1} for luminosity above 10{sup 45} erg s{sup −1}. We predict that future X-ray telescopes (such as Einstein Probe) with sensitivity ∼10{sup −11} erg s{sup −1} cm{sup −2} would detect as many as several tens of such transients per year per steradian. Within 200 Mpc, the aLIGO average range for NS–NS mergers, the estimated event rate of these transients is about 1 transient per year all sky.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Are the Formation and Abundances of Metal-poor Stars the Result of Dust Dynamics?

Large dust grains can fluctuate dramatically in their local density, relative to the gas, in neutral turbulent disks. Small, high-redshift galaxies (before reionization) represent ideal environments for this process. We show via simple arguments and simulations that order-of-magnitude fluctuations are expected in local abundances of large grains (>100 Å) under these conditions. This can have important consequences for star formation and stellar metal abundances in extremely metal-poor stars. Low-mass stars can form in dust-enhanced regions almost immediately after some dust forms even if the galaxy-average metallicity is too low for fragmentation to occur. We argue that the metal abundances of these “promoted” stars may contain interesting signatures as the CNO abundances (concentrated in large carbonaceous grains and ices) and Mg and Si (in large silicate grains) can be enhanced and/or fluctuate almost independently. Remarkably, the otherwise puzzling abundance patterns of some metal-poor stars can be well fit by standard IMF-averaged core-collapse SNe yields if we allow for fluctuating local dust-to-gas ratios. We also show that the observed log-normal distribution of enhancements in pure SNe yields, shows very large enhancements and variations up to factors of ≳100 as expected in the dust-promoted model, preferentially in the [C/Fe]-enhanced metal-poor stars. Together, this suggests that (1) dust exists in second-generation star formation, (2) local dust-to-gas ratio fluctuations occur in protogalaxies and can be important for star formation, and (3) the light element abundances of these stars may be affected by the local chemistry of dust where they formed, rather than directly tracing nucleosynthesis from earlier populations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Probing Large Galaxy Halos at Z ∼ 0 with Automated Lyα-absorption Matching

We present initial results from an ongoing large-scale study of the circumgalactic medium in the nearby Universe (cz ⩽ 10,000 km s{sup −1}), using archival Cosmic Origins Spectrograph spectra of background quasi-stellar objects. This initial sample contains 33 sightlines chosen for their proximity to large galaxies (D⩾25 kpc) and high signal-to-noise ratios (S/N ⩾ 10), yielding 48 Lyα absorption lines that we have paired with 33 unique galaxies, with 29 cases where multiple absorbers within a single sightline are paired with the same galaxy. We introduce a likelihood parameter to facilitate the matching of galaxies to absorption lines in a reproducible manner. We find the usual anti-correlation between Lyα equivalent width (EW) and impact parameter (ρ) when we normalize by galaxy virial radius (R {sub vir}). Galaxies associated with a Lyα absorber are found to be more highly inclined than galaxies in the survey volume at a > 99% confidence level (equivalent to ∼3.6σ for a normal distribution). In contrast with suggestions in other recent papers of a correlation with azimuth angle for Mg ii absorption, we find no such correlation for Lyα.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

High-resolution Observations of a White-light Flare with NST

Using high-resolution data from the New Solar Telescope, we studied fine spatial and temporal details of an M1.3 white-light (WL) flare, which was one of three homologous solar flares (C6.8, M1.3, and M2.3) observed in close proximity to the west solar limb on 2014 October 29 in NOAA active region 12192. We report that the TiO WL flare consists of compact and intense cores surrounded by less intense spatial halos. The strong and compact WL cores were measured to be ≈0.2 Mm across, with an area of about 10{sup 14} cm{sup 2}. Several TiO features were not cospatial with Hα flare ribbons and were displaced toward the disk center by about 500 km, which suggests that the TiO and Hα radiation probably did not originate in the same chromospheric volume. The observed TiO intensity enhancements are not normally distributed and are structured by the magnetic field of the penumbra.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗