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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1972

Procedure for estimating stability and control parameters from flight test data by using maximum likelihood methods employing a real-time digital system

A maximum likelihood parameter estimation procedure and program were developed for the extraction of the stability and control derivatives of aircraft from flight test data. Nonlinear six-degree-of-freedom equations describing aircraft dynamics were used to derive sensitivity equations for quasilinearization. The maximum likelihood function with quasilinearization was used to derive the parameter change equations, the covariance matrices for the parameters and measurement noise, and the performance index function. The maximum likelihood estimator was mechanized into an iterative estimation procedure utilizing a real time digital computer and graphic display system. This program was developed for 8 measured state variables and 40 parameters. Test cases were conducted with simulated data for validation of the estimation procedure and program. The program was applied to a V/STOL tilt wing aircraft, a military fighter airplane, and a light single engine airplane. The particular nonlinear equations of motion, derivation of the sensitivity equations, addition of accelerations into the algorithm, operational features of the real time digital system, and test cases are described.

Grove, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Development of advanced techniques for rotorcraft state estimation and parameter identification

An integrated methodology for rotorcraft system identification consists of rotorcraft mathematical modeling, three distinct data processing steps, and a technique for designing inputs to improve the identifiability of the data. These elements are as follows: (1) a Kalman filter smoother algorithm which estimates states and sensor errors from error corrupted data. Gust time histories and statistics may also be estimated; (2) a model structure estimation algorithm for isolating a model which adequately explains the data; (3) a maximum likelihood algorithm for estimating the parameters and estimates for the variance of these estimates; and (4) an input design algorithm, based on a maximum likelihood approach, which provides inputs to improve the accuracy of parameter estimates. Each step is discussed with examples to both flight and simulated data cases.

Hall, W. E., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Estimation of dynamic stability parameters from drop model flight tests

A recent NASA application of a remotely-piloted drop model to studies of the high angle-of-attack and spinning characteristics of a fighter configuration has provided an opportunity to evaluate and develop parameter estimation methods for the complex aerodynamic environment associated with high angles of attack. The paper discusses the overall drop model operation including descriptions of the model, instrumentation, launch and recovery operations, piloting concept, and parameter identification methods used. Static and dynamic stability derivatives were obtained for an angle-of-attack range from -20 deg to 53 deg. The results of the study indicated that the variations of the estimates with angle of attack were consistent for most of the static derivatives, and the effects of configuration modifications to the model (such as nose strakes) were apparent in the static derivative estimates. The dynamic derivatives exhibited greater uncertainty levels than the static derivatives, possibly due to nonlinear aerodynamics, model response characteristics, or additional derivatives.

Chambers, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Joint estimation of biogeochemical model parameters from multiple experiments: A bayesian approach applied to mercury methylation

Here, to characterize complex biogeochemical systems, results from multiple experiments, where each targets a specific subprocess, are commonly combined. The resulting datasets are interpreted through the calibration of biogeochemical models for process inference and predictions. Commonly used calibration approaches of fitting datasets from individual experiments to subprocess models one at a time is prone to missing information shared between datasets and incomplete uncertainty propagation. We propose a Bayesian joint-fitting scheme addressing the above-mentioned concerns by jointly fitting all the available datasets, thus calibrating the entire biogeochemical model in one go using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The identification of null spaces in the parameter distributions from MCMC guided the simplification of certain subprocess models. For example, fast kinetic sorption was replaced by equilibrium sorption, and Monod demethylation was replaced by first-order demethylation. Joint fitting of datasets resulted in complete uncertainty propagation with parameter estimates informed by all available data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1989

Estimation of aircraft aerodynamic parameters from flight data

Several ways for obtaining aerodynamic parameters of an aircraft from flight data are presented. A brief description of data analysis from steady measurements is given, and a concept of system identification is introduced. This is followed by a mathematical model of an aircraft with aerodynamic forces and moments approximated either by polynomials or splines and a detailed treatment of two often-used techniques for parameter estimation. Because of renewed interest in frequency-domain analysis, one section of the paper is devoted to this problem. The methods are demonstrated in several examples using real flight data.

Klein, Vladislav↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Lamaire, Richard Orville↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of multidimensional precipitation parameters by areal estimates of oceanic rainfall

The parameters of the multidimensional precipitation model proposed by Waymire et al. (1984) are estimated using the areal-averaged radar measurements of precipitation of the Global Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) data set. The procedure followed was the fitting of the first- and second-order moments at different aggregation scales by nonlinear regression techniques. The numerical estimates of the parameters using different subsets of GATE information were reasonably stable, i.e., they were not affected by changes of the area-averaging size, temporal length of the records, and percentage of areal coverage of rainfall. This suggests that the estimation procedure is relatively robust and suitable to estimate the parameters of the multidimensional model in areas of sparse density of rain gages. The use of the space-time spectrum of rainfall to help in the determination of sampling errors due to intermittent visits of future space-borne low-altitude sensors of precipitation is also discussed.

Valdes, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Improved Analysis of GW150914 Using a Fully Spin-Precessing Waveform Model

This paper presents updated estimates of source parameters for GW150914, a binary black-hole coalescence event detected by the Laser Interferometer Gravitational-wave Observatory (LIGO) in 2015 [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 061102 (2016).]. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] presented parameter estimation of the source using a 13-dimensional, phenomenological precessing-spin model (precessing IMRPhenom) and an 11-dimensional nonprecessing effective-one-body (EOB) model calibrated to numerical-relativity simulations, which forces spin alignment (nonprecessing EOBNR). Here, we present new results that include a 15-dimensional precessing-spin waveform model (precessing EOBNR) developed within the EOB formalism. We find good agreement with the parameters estimated previously [Abbott et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).], and we quote updated component masses of 35(+5)(-3) solar M; and 30(+3)(-4) solar M; (where errors correspond to 90 symmetric credible intervals). We also present slightly tighter constraints on the dimensionless spin magnitudes of the two black holes, with a primary spin estimate is less than 0.65 and a secondary spin estimate is less than 0.75 at 90% probability. Abbott et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 116, 241102 (2016).] estimated the systematic parameter-extraction errors due to waveform-model uncertainty by combining the posterior probability densities of precessing IMRPhenom and nonprecessing EOBNR. Here, we find that the two precessing-spin models are in closer agreement, suggesting that these systematic errors are smaller than previously quoted.

Abbott, B. P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Inferring the spread of COVID-19: the role of time-varying reporting rate in epidemiological modelling

The role of epidemiological models is crucial for informing public health officials during a public health emergency, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. However, traditional epidemiological models fail to capture the time-varying effects of mitigation strategies and do not account for under-reporting of active cases, thus introducing bias in the estimation of model parameters. To infer more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty of these estimates, we extend the SIR and SEIR epidemiological models with two time-varying parameters that capture the transmission rate and the rate at which active cases are reported to health officials. Using two real data sets of COVID-19 cases, we perform Bayesian inference via our SIR and SEIR models with time-varying transmission and reporting rates and via their standard counterparts with constant rates; our approach provides parameter estimates with more realistic interpretation, and 1-week ahead predictions with reduced uncertainty. Furthermore, we find consistent under-reporting in the number of active cases in the data that we consider, suggesting that the initial phase of the pandemic was more widespread than previously reported.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Misclassification in Workers’ Telecommuting Frequency Choices Using a Generalized Extreme Value Model

Telecommuting frequency is a response variable collected in travel surveys and is, therefore, prone to errors leading to mismeasurements or misclassification. Misclassification of explanatory variables is a common risk when using statistical modeling techniques. We define “misclassification” as a response reported or recorded in the wrong category; for example, a variable is recorded as a 1 when it should be 0. Here, in this context, this study aims to develop a statistical model to analyze telecommuting data which accounts for potential misclassification errors by building on existing literature in econometrics. The empirical analysis was undertaken using the 2017 National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) and the general extreme value (GEV) models available in the literature. Specifically, the frequency of telecommuting days was analyzed using the negative binomial (NB) model recast as the multinomial logit (MNL) model. By nature—and consistent with other studies—NHTS data are prone to errors that can be classified as intentional or unintentional misinformation provided by the person being interviewed. Ignoring these errors while modeling telecommuting frequencies using standard discrete count models can result in biased parameter estimates. The misclassification parameter was calculated for both over-reporting and under-reporting scenarios. The misclassification errors can be as high as 14% over-reported and 10% under-reported, particularly for the neighboring values. Statistical fit comparison between the models shows that models that ignore misclassification have worse data fit and biased parameter estimates with significant policy implications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1984

Estimating location parameters in a mixture

The problem of estimating the parameters in a finite mixture is considered. The approach is based on an integral equation formulation of the form h sub t (x) = integral (limits b and a) f(x-y) g sut t (y)dy where h sub t is a smoothed version of h and g sub t is a prior function that tends to be concentrated on the translation values. A solution for g sub t that uses the method of regularization and one based on a posterior operator approach is considered. Numerical simulations are presented to bring out some of the estimation and numerical problems of these approaches.

Heydorn, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS2002

System IDentification Programs for AirCraft (SIDPAC)

A collection of computer programs for aircraft system identification is described and demonstrated. The programs, collectively called System IDentification Programs for AirCraft, or SIDPAC, were developed in MATLAB as m-file functions. SIDPAC has been used successfully at NASA Langley Research Center with data from many different flight test programs and wind tunnel experiments. SIDPAC includes routines for experiment design, data conditioning, data compatibility analysis, model structure determination, equation-error and output-error parameter estimation in both the time and frequency domains, real-time and recursive parameter estimation, low order equivalent system identification, estimated parameter error calculation, linear and nonlinear simulation, plotting, and 3-D visualization. An overview of SIDPAC capabilities is provided, along with a demonstration of the use of SIDPAC with real flight test data from the NASA Glenn Twin Otter aircraft. The SIDPAC software is available without charge to U.S. citizens by request to the author, contingent on the requestor completing a NASA software usage agreement.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗
NASA NTRS1987

The effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements

A statistical model of water vapor fluctuations is used to describe the effect of the dynamic wet troposphere on radio interferometric measurements. It is assumed that the spatial structure of refractivity is approximated by Kolmogorov turbulence theory, and that the temporal fluctuations are caused by spatial patterns moved over a site by the wind, and these assumptions are examined for the VLBI delay and delay rate observables. The results suggest that the delay rate measurement error is usually dominated by water vapor fluctuations, and water vapor induced VLBI parameter errors and correlations are determined as a function of the delay observable errors. A method is proposed for including the water vapor fluctuations in the parameter estimation method to obtain improved parameter estimates and parameter covariances.

Treuhaft, R. N.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Attitude-Independent Magnetometer Calibration for Spin-Stabilized Spacecraft

The paper describes a three-step estimator to calibrate a Three-Axis Magnetometer (TAM) using TAM and slit Sun or star sensor measurements. In the first step, the Calibration Utility forms a loss function from the residuals of the magnitude of the geomagnetic field. This loss function is minimized with respect to biases, scale factors, and nonorthogonality corrections. The second step minimizes residuals of the projection of the geomagnetic field onto the spin axis under the assumption that spacecraft nutation has been suppressed by a nutation damper. Minimization is done with respect to various directions of the body spin axis in the TAM frame. The direction of the spin axis in the inertial coordinate system required for the residual computation is assumed to be unchanged with time. It is either determined independently using other sensors or included in the estimation parameters. In both cases all estimation parameters can be found using simple analytical formulas derived in the paper. The last step is to minimize a third loss function formed by residuals of the dot product between the geomagnetic field and Sun or star vector with respect to the misalignment angle about the body spin axis. The method is illustrated by calibrating TAM for the Fast Auroral Snapshot Explorer (FAST) using in-flight TAM and Sun sensor data. The estimated parameters include magnetic biases, scale factors, and misalignment angles of the spin axis in the TAM frame. Estimation of the misalignment angle about the spin axis was inconclusive since (at least for the selected time interval) the Sun vector was about 15 degrees from the direction of the spin axis; as a result residuals of the dot product between the geomagnetic field and Sun vectors were to a large extent minimized as a by-product of the second step.

Natanson, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS2000

Parametric Modeling and Fault Tolerant Control

Fault tolerant control is considered for a nonlinear aircraft model expressed as a linear parameter-varying system. By proper parameterization of foreseeable faults, the linear parameter-varying system can include fault effects as additional varying parameters. A recently developed technique in fault effect parameter estimation allows us to assume that estimates of the fault effect parameters are available on-line. Reconfigurability is calculated for this model with respect to the loss of control effectiveness to assess the potentiality of the model to tolerate such losses prior to control design. The control design is carried out by applying a polytopic method to the aircraft model. An error bound on fault effect parameter estimation is provided, within which the Lyapunov stability of the closed-loop system is robust. Our simulation results show that as long as the fault parameter estimates are sufficiently accurate, the polytopic controller can provide satisfactory fault-tolerance.

Wu, N. Eva↗
NASA NTRS1993

bpshape wk4: a computer program that implements a physiological model for analyzing the shape of blood pressure waveforms

We describe the theory and computer implementation of a newly-derived mathematical model for analyzing the shape of blood pressure waveforms. Input to the program consists of an ECG signal, plus a single continuous channel of peripheral blood pressure, which is often obtained invasively from an indwelling catheter during intensive-care monitoring or non-invasively from a tonometer. Output from the program includes a set of parameter estimates, made for every heart beat. Parameters of the model can be interpreted in terms of the capacitance of large arteries, the capacitance of peripheral arteries, the inertance of blood flow, the peripheral resistance, and arterial pressure due to basal vascular tone. Aortic flow due to contraction of the left ventricle is represented by a forcing function in the form of a descending ramp, the area under which represents the stroke volume. Differential equations describing the model are solved by the method of Laplace transforms, permitting rapid parameter estimation by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm. Parameter estimates and their confidence intervals are given in six examples, which are chosen to represent a variety of pressure waveforms that are observed during intensive-care monitoring. The examples demonstrate that some of the parameters may fluctuate markedly from beat to beat. Our program will find application in projects that are intended to correlate the details of the blood pressure waveform with other physiological variables, pathological conditions, and the effects of interventions.

Non-NASA Center↗