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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking FFTF LOFWOS Test# 13 using SAM code: Baseline model development and uncertainty quantification

The development and deployment of advanced reactors, such as the sodium-cooled fast reactor (SFR), relies on sophisticated modeling tools to ensure the safety of the design under various transients. The predictive capability of these advanced modeling tools requires validation to garner trust in supporting the licensing of the advanced reactors. For this reason, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) initiated a coordinated research project (CRP) in 2018 for the analysis of the Fast Flux Test Facility (FFTF) Loss of Flow Without Scram (LOFWOS) Test #13.In this study, we present and discuss the benchmarking efforts of the modern system code SAM on the FFTF LOFWOS Test #13. Further, the SAM baseline model was developed according to the benchmark specification, which included a detailed core model with reactivity feedback. Generally, good agreement was observed between the baseline results and benchmark measurements; however, discrepancies persisted, particularly in predicted fuel assembly coolant outlet temperatures. Utilizing the baseline model, uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analysis (SA) were conducted with the assistance of various statistical learning and machine learning methods, including kernel density estimation, Gaussian processes, and Sobol indices. Following the baseline model prediction and UQ and SA results, we discuss the reasons for the simulation discrepancies and propose further improvements to the model. This benchmarking effort adheres to the best-estimate plus uncertainty approach and can serve as a valuable example for supporting risk-informed licensing of advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

LSTM-Based Data Integration to Improve Snow Water Equivalent Prediction and Diagnose Error Sources

Accurate prediction of snow water equivalent (SWE) can be valuable for water resource managers. Recently, deep learning methods such as long short-term memory (LSTM) have exhibited high accuracy in simulating hydrologic variables and can integrate lagged observations to improve prediction, but their benefits were not clear for SWE simulations. Here we tested an LSTM network with data integration (DI) for SWE in the western United States to integrate 30-day-lagged or 7-day-lagged observations of either SWE or satellite-observed snow cover fraction (SCF) to improve future predictions. SCF proved beneficial only for shallow-snow sites during snowmelt, while lagged SWE integration significantly improved prediction accuracy for both shallow- and deep-snow sites. The median Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient (NSE) in temporal testing improved from 0.92 to 0.97 with 30-day-lagged SWE integration, and root-mean-square error (RMSE) and the difference between estimated and observed peak SWE values d max were reduced by 41% and 57%, respectively. DI effectively mitigated accumulated model and forcing errors that would otherwise be persistent. Moreover, by applying DI to different observations (30-day-lagged, 7-day-lagged), we revealed the spatial distribution of errors with different persistent lengths. For example, integrating 30-day-lagged SWE was ineffective for ephemeral snow sites in the southwestern United States, but significantly reduced monthly-scale biases for regions with stable seasonal snowpack such as high-elevation sites in California. These biases are likely attributable to large interannual variability in snowfall or site-specific snow redistribution patterns that can accumulate to impactful levels over time for nonephemeral sites. These results set up benchmark levels and provide guidance for future model improvement strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Machine Learning Classical Interatomic Potentials for Molecular Dynamics from First-Principles Training Data

The ever-increasing power of modern super-computers, along with the availability of highly scalable atomistic simulation codes, has begun to revolutionize predictive modeling of materials. In particular, molecular dynamics (MD) has led to breakthrough advances in diverse fields, including tribology, catalysis, sensing, and nanoparticle self-assembly. Furthermore, recent integration of MD simulations with X-ray characterization has demonstrated promise in real-time 3-D characterization of materials on the atomic scale. The popularity of MD is driven by its applicability at disparate length/time scales, ranging from ab initio MD (hundreds of atoms and tens of picoseconds) to all-atom classical MD (millions of atoms over microseconds), and coarse-grained (CG) models (micrometers and tens of microseconds). Nevertheless, a substantial gap persists between AIMD, which is highly accurate but restricted to extremely small sizes, and those based on classical force fields (atomistic and CG) with limited accuracy but access to larger length/time scales. The accuracy and predictive power of classical MD simulations is dictated by the empirical force fields, and their capability to capture the relevant physics. Here, we discuss some of our recent work on the use of machine learning (ML) to combine the accuracy and flexibility of electronic structure calculations with the speed of classical potentials. Our ML framework attempts to bridge the significant gulf that exists between the handful of research groups that develop new interatomic potential models (often requiring several years of effort), and the increasingly large user community from academia and industry that applies these models. Our data-driven approach represents significant departure from the status quo and involves several steps including generation and manipulation of extensive training data sets through electronic structure calculations, defining novel potential functional forms, employing state-of-the-art ML algorithms to formulate highly optimized training procedures, and subsequently developing user-friendly workflow tools integrating these algorithms on high-performance computers (HPCs). Our ML approach shows marked success in developing force fields for a wide range of materials from metals, oxides, nitrides, and heterointerfaces to two-dimensional (2D) materials.

Chan, Henry↗
DOE OSTI2024

A hybrid finite volume method and smoothed particle hydrodynamics approach for efficient and accurate blast simulations

Modeling strong shock waves in fluids remains a persistent challenge in computational physics. Essential to research efforts in industry and defense, numerous methods have been devised to improve the accuracy and efficiency of shock simulations. A novel, hybrid Finite Volume Method (FVM)-Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) approach is capable of further improving efficiency and retaining accuracy by exploiting the favorable characteristics of each respective method. This hybrid approach is presented for shock capturing in compressible fluids. The Python framework Pyro2 is employed to simulate a coarse FVM mesh, while the Python framework PySPH is utilized to model the fluid in regions with high gradients through SPH particles. The performance of the hybrid FVM-SPH scheme, compared to the individual FVM and SPH methods, is assessed in 1 kt and 10 kt blast simulations. Our results indicate that the hybrid approach offers higher computational efficiency than SPH while preserving its accuracy and characteristics. The hybrid approach had a relative speedup of 11.3x and 22.3x over the FVM and SPH approaches for the 1 kt simulation and a relative speedup of 14.7x and 20.9x over the FVM and SPH approaches for the 10 kt simulation. The hybrid SPH algorithm enables future compressible fluid simulations with more extensive capabilities than grid-based methods alone, presenting potential applications in modeling fluid-structure interactions and solid deformation and fracturing in blast simulations.

Myers, Conner↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining long‐term model predictions for woody growth using tropical tree rings

The strength and persistence of the tropical carbon sink hinges on the long-term responses of woody growth to climatic variations and increasing CO 2 . However, the sensitivity of tropical woody growth to these environmental changes is poorly understood, leading to large uncertainties in growth predictions. Here, we used tree ring records from a Southeast Asian tropical forest to constrain ED2.2-hydro, a terrestrial biosphere model with explicit vegetation demography. Specifically, we assessed individual-level woody growth responses to historical climate variability and increases in atmospheric CO 2 (C a ). When forced with historical C a , ED2.2-hydro reproduced the magnitude of increases in intercellular CO 2 concentration (a major determinant of photosynthesis) estimated from tree ring carbon isotope records. In contrast, simulated growth trends were considerably larger than those obtained from tree rings, suggesting that woody biomass production efficiency (WBPE = woody biomass production:gross primary productivity) was overestimated by the model. The estimated WBPE decline under increasing C a based on model-data discrepancy was comparable to or stronger than (depending on tree species and size) the observed WBPE changes from a multi-year mature-forest CO 2 fertilization experiment. In addition, we found that ED2.2-hydro generally overestimated climatic sensitivity of woody growth, especially for late-successional plant functional types. The model-data discrepancy in growth sensitivity to climate was likely caused by underestimating WBPE in hot and dry years due to commonly used model assumptions on carbon use efficiency and allocation. To our knowledge, this is the first study to constrain model predictions of individual tree-level growth sensitivity to C a and climate against tropical tree-ring data. Our results suggest that improving model processes related to WBPE is crucial to obtain better predictions of tropical forest responses to droughts and increasing C a . Finally, more accurate parameterization of WBPE will likely reduce the stimulation of woody growth by C a rise predicted by biosphere models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2017

Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part II: A Theoretical Explanation

In Part I of this study, it was shown that the Eurasian cold anomalies related to Arctic warming depend strongly on the quasi stationarity and persistence of the Ural blocking (UB). The analysis here revealed that under weak mean westerly wind (MWW) and vertical shear (VS) (quasi barotropic) conditions with weak synoptic-scale eddies and a large planetary wave anomaly, the growth of UB is slow and its amplitude is small. For this case, a quasi-stationary and persistent UB is seen. However, under strong MWW and VS (quasi baroclinic) conditions, synoptic-scale eddies are stronger and the growth of UB is rapid; the resulting UB is less persistent and has large amplitude. In this case, a marked retrogression of the UB is observed. The dynamical mechanism behind the dependence of the movement and persistence of UB upon the background conditions is further examined using a nonlinear multiscale model. The results show that when the blocking has large amplitude under quasi-baroclinic conditions, the blocking-induced westward displacement greatly exceeds the strong mean zonal-wind-induced eastward movement and hence generates a marked retrogression of the blocking. By contrast, under quasi-barotropic conditions because the UB amplitude is relatively small the blocking-induced westward movement is less distinct, giving rise to a quasi-stationary and persistent blocking. It is further shown that the strong mid–high-latitude North Atlantic mean zonal wind is the quasi-barotropic condition that suppresses UB’s retrogression and thus is conducive to the quasi stationarity and persistence of the UB. The model results show that the blocking duration is longer when the mean zonal wind in the blocking region or eddy strength is weaker.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radiative, Hydrologic, and Circulation Responses to Warming in Cess‐Potter Simulations Using the Global 3.25‐km SCREAM

Using the global 3.25-km Simple Cloud Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM 3 km), a pair of 13-month Cess-Potter simulations are performed to quantify the radiative feedbacks and the hydrologic and circulation responses to warming. Large-scale aspects of SCREAM 3 km's top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes, precipitation rates, and circulations are in good agreement with observations and reanalysis, with notable differences, including a drier lower free-troposphere in the Tropics, reduced precipitation and humidity over the Tropical West Pacific, and poleward shifted Southern Hemisphere midlatitude jet. In response to warming, SCREAM 3 km predicts a total radiative feedback within the top 15% of the CMIP5 and CMIP6 models, which puts it substantially higher than the feedback reported by other kilometer-scale models. SCREAM 3 km's high radiative feedback stems from a strongly positive shortwave cloud feedback, most prominent over the mid- and high-latitudes. SCREAM 3 km's high precipitation response also puts it among the highest of CMIP models, whereas its circulation response is within the spread of CMIP models. An ensemble of five perturbed initial condition Cess-Potter simulations with a 12 km version of SCREAM (SCREAM 12 km) is performed to characterize uncertainty and resolution sensitivity. It suggests that the uncertainty from analyzing a pair of 1-year simulations is small compared to the inter-model spread in feedbacks and precipitation response. SCREAM 12 km also produces a strong precipitation response to warming but a much lower cloud feedback and total radiative feedback. The results from these experiments suggest that the spread in climate feedbacks will likely persist in the next generation of kilometer-scale models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2009

Monitoring Coastal Marshes for Persistent Saltwater Intrusion

Primary goal: Provide resource managers with remote sensing products that support ecosystem forecasting models requiring salinity and inundation data. Work supports the habitat-switching modules in the Coastal Louisiana Ecosystem Assessment and Restoration (CLEAR) model, which provides scientific evaluation for restoration management (Visser et al., 2008). Ongoing work to validate flooding with radar (NWRC/USGS) and enhance persistence estimates through "fusion" of MODIS and Landsat time series (ROSES A.28 Gulf of Mexico). Additional work will also investigate relationship between saltwater dielectric constant and radar returns (Radarsat) (ROSES A.28 Gulf of Mexico).

Kalcic, Maria↗
DOE OSTI2024

Crystal Engineering of Hydrogen Bonding for Direct Air Capture of CO2: A Quantum Crystallography Perspective

Rising atmospheric CO2 levels demand efficient and sustainable carbon capture solutions. Direct air capture (DAC) via crystallizing hydrogen-bonded frameworks such as carbonate salts has emerged as a promising approach. This review explores the potential of crystal engineering, in tandem with advanced quantum crystallography techniques and computational modeling, to unlock the full potential of DAC materials. We examine the critical role of hydrogen bonding and other noncovalent interactions within a family of bis-guanidines that governs the formation of carbonate salts with high CO2 capture capacity and low regeneration energies for utilization. Quantum crystallography and charge density analysis prove instrumental in elucidating these interactions. A case study of a highly insoluble carbonate salt of a 2,6-pyridine-bis-(iminoguanidine) exemplifies the effectiveness of these approaches. However, challenges remain in the systematic and precise determination of hydrogen atom positions and atomic displacement parameters within DAC materials using quantum crystallography, and limitations persist in the accuracy of current energy estimation models for hydrogen bonding interactions. Future directions lie in exploring diverse functional groups, designing advanced hydrogen-bonded frameworks, and seamlessly integrating experimental and computational modeling with machine learning. This synergistic approach promises to propel the design and optimization of DAC materials, paving the way for a more sustainable future.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Convolutional neural networks for intra-hour solar forecasting based on sky image sequences

Accurate and timely solar forecasts play an increasingly critical role in power systems. Compared to longer forecasting timescales, very short-term solar forecasting has lagged behind in both research and practice. In this paper, we propose deep convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to provide operational intra-hour (10-minute-ahead to 60-minute-ahead) solar forecasts. We develop two CNN structures inspired by a widely-used CNN architecture. The CNNs are tailored to our solar forecasting regression tasks and rely solely on sky image sequences. Case studies based on six years of data (over 150,000 data points) demonstrate that the best CNN model has forecast skill scores of 20%-39% over the naive persistence of cloudiness benchmark, even at these very short timescales. The CNNs also have consistently superior performance when compared to shallow machine learning models with meteorological predictors, where the improvement averages around 7%. The sensitivity analyses show that the sky image length, resolution, and weather conditions have impacts on the deep learning model accuracy. In our intra-hour problem with specific setups, two sky images with a 10-minute 128 x 128 resolution yield the most accurate forecasts. Current limitations, future work, and deployment challenges and solutions are also discussed.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2024

Mineral Dust Optical Properties for Remote Sensing and Global Modeling: A Review

Dust plays a key role in many Earth system processes and is ubiquitous in the Martian atmosphere. Various intensive field campaigns, laboratory analyses, space-based remote sensing missions, and global modeling efforts aim to characterize dust optical properties. This is a bountiful time for dust scientists, and yet the interpretation of retrievals and comparison to models remains complicated by various conflicting assumptions that are part of each algorithm. For example, the conversion of satellite radiance measurements into products like aerosol optical depth for model evaluation depends upon aerosol properties like particle size and shape that are often prescribed and not part of the retrieval. Conversely, the model calculation of aerosol optical depth often uses different assumptions. The goal of this review is to first document algorithmic assumptions by various satellite retrieval products and models, and identify where there is consistency and where there are differences. In general, the differences documented in this paper reflect uncertainties resulting from incomplete observational characterization of dust aerosols and limitations in our understanding. Second, we note what observations might reduce uncertainties in our knowledge and bring greater consistency to retrievals and models, allowing for a more rigorous and harmonious comparison. The lack of comprehensive and realistic shape models for dust is an outstanding issue, such that closure between forward modeling from particle refractive index, shape, and size and observed optical properties cannot be achieved. Limitations in the computational methods that must be applied to model scattering from complex shapes also makes accurate optical modeling for dust challenging. Field observations indicate the persistence of coarse and giant dust particles at higher altitudes and farther downwind from their source than previously expected. Remote sensing retrieval algorithms based on observations at visible wavelengths have limited sensitivity to these particles and generally do not consider them, although a recent product based on longwave radiances is encouraging. Current measurements of the refractive index of bulk dust and fundamental dust minerology components such as hematite vary widely, inhibiting attempts to represent the variability in dust optical properties and forcing, as expected from different major dust source regions on Earth that have varying mineralogical composition. Some remote sensing retrieval algorithms allow for limited refractive index variability in their inversion solutions through mixing with other fine mode aerosol models, or optimizing the single scattering albedo, but Earth system models surveyed for this paper assume a globally uniform, size-invariant refractive index. Although no Martian dust samples have yet been returned to Earth, remote sensing observations indicate that Martian dust is globally homogenous in composition, and a single spectral refractive index assumption has been widely adopted to represent Martian dust. The lack of comprehensive, statistically representative measurements of dust particle microphysical properties (size distribution, morphology, complex index of refraction spectra, internal structure heterogeneity), and the resulting optical properties, limits our ability to verify the fidelity of these assumptions. A chain of measurements is needed, ranging from characterizing individual dust mineralogy components (e.g., pure hematite and goethite) to in situ sampling of complex atmospheric aerosol mixtures. Such results could be applied to both remote sensing retrievals that characterize the optical properties of the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere from total radiance measurements, and to global models that represent the total aerosol burden in the atmosphere by building it up from the balance of individual aerosol sources and sinks.

Aeolian dust↗
DOE OSTI2019

THERMAL STRATIFICATION IN A POOL-TYPE GEOMETRY

Sodium fast reactors are poised to be a leading candidate for the next generation of commercial reactor deployment. Before licensing can be completed it is important that information be gathered which examines reactor transients during loss of flow accidents. During loss of flow accidents thermally stratified layers can form in the reactor pool. The formation of thermal stratification in the primary pool of a sodium fast reactor during a loss of flow accident can cause cyclic thermal fatigue on the reactor vessel potentially leading to crack formation and weld failure. Computational models have been built to analyze the formation and persistence of thermal stratification during accident transients, but are not currently validated by experimental data. A thermal stratification research facility has been developed and tested to research thermal stratification with loss of flow type conditions. Data from the experiments will be used to validate computational models. The facility can simulate both protected and unprotected loss of flow accident transients in the temperature range of 200-325 [C] with flow rates from 2 gpm to 20 gpm.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRS1993

Feasibility study on conducting overflight measurements of shaped sonic boom signatures using the Firebee BQM-34E RPV

A study was performed to determine the feasibility of establishing if a 'shaped' sonic boom signature, experimentally shown in wind tunnel models out to about 10 body lengths, will persist out to representative flight conditions of 200 to 300 body lengths. The study focuses on the use of a relatively large supersonic remotely-piloted and recoverable vehicle. Other simulation methods that may accomplish the objective are also addressed and include the use of nonrecoverable target drones, missiles, full-scale drones, very large wind tunnels, ballistic facilities, whirling-arm techniques, rocket sled tracks, and airplane nose probes. In addition, this report will also present a background on the origin of the feasibility study including a brief review of the equivalent body concept, a listing of the basic sonic boom signature characteristics and requirements, identification of candidate vehicles in terms of desirable features/availability, and vehicle characteristics including geometries, area distributions, and resulting sonic boom signatures. A program is developed that includes wind tunnel sonic boom and force models and tests for both a basic and modified vehicles and full-scale flight tests.

Maglieri, Domenic J.↗
DOE OSTI2017

Inhibition of potassium currents is involved in antiarrhythmic effect of moderate ethanol on atrial fibrillation

Excessive consumption of alcohol is a well-established risk factor of atrial fibrillation (AF). However, the effects of moderate alcohol drinking remain to be elucidated. This study was designed to determine the effects of moderate ethanol ingestion on atrial fibrillation and the electrophysiological mechanisms. In acetylcholine-induced canine and mouse AF models, the moderate ethanol prevented the generation and persistence of AF through prolonging the latent period of AF and shortening the duration of AF. The action potential duration (APD) was remarkably prolonged under the concentration range of 12.5–50.0 mM ethanol in guinea pig atrial myocytes. Ultra-rapid delayed rectified potassium currents (I{sub Kv1.5}) were markedly inhibited by 12.5–50.0 mM ethanol in a concentration-dependent manner. Ethanol with 50.0 mM could inhibit rapid delayed rectifier potassium currents (I{sub hERG}). Ethanol under 6.25–50.0 mM did not affect on inward rectifier potassium currents (I{sub Kir2.1}). Collectively, the present study provided an evidence that moderate ethanol intake can prolong the APD of atrial myocytes by inhibition of I{sub Kv1.5} and I{sub hERG}, which contributed to preventing the development and duration of AF. - Highlights: • Moderate ethanol prevented the development of AF in animal models. • Moderate ethanol prolonged APD in guinea pig atrial myocytes. • Moderate ethanol inhibited Kv1.5 currents.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Ruling out the power-law form of the scalar primordial spectrum

Combining Planck CMB temperature [1] and BICEP2 B-mode polarization data [2,3] we show qualitatively that, assuming inflationary consistency relation, the power-law form of the scalar primordial spectrum is ruled out at more than 3σ CL. This is an important finding, since the power-law form of the scalar primordial spectrum is one of the main assumptions of concordance model of cosmology and also a direct prediction of many inflationary scenarios. We show that a break or step in the form of the primordial scalar perturbation spectrum, similar to what we studied recently analyzing Planck data [4], can address both Planck and BICEP2 results simultaneously. Our findings also indicate that the data may require more flexibilities than what running of scalar spectral index can provide. Finally we show that an inflaton potential, originally appeared in [5], can generate both the step and the break model of scalar primordial spectrum in two different limits. The discussed potential is found to be favored by Planck data but marginally disfavored by BICEP2 results as it produces slightly lower amplitude of tensor primordial spectrum. Hence, if the tensor-to-scalar ratio (r) quoted by BICEP2 persists, it is of importance that we generate inflationary models with large r and at the same time provide suppression in scalar primordial spectrum at large scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AUTOIGNITION DELAY TIMES FOR REFORMATE GAS MIXTURES FROM METHANE GAS ENGINES

Methane slip is a prominent issue in natural gas reciprocating engines that are used in transportation and marine applications. The incomplete combustion that results in methane slip can be resolved with the introduction of hydrogen within the combustion mixture to improve methane oxidation and further enable combustion within the engine crevices where methane has previously remained unreacted. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a common method used to produce hydrogen and can be used to design an onboard device to reduce methane slip from reciprocating engines. The development of this reformer device requires the validation of high-fidelity chemical kinetic models at the low temperatures of the crevice volumes of these engines. In this work, auto-ignition data is obtained using a shock tube at lean (φ—0.714 or λ—1.4) and stoichiometric (φ, λ = 1) equivalence ratios spanning a temperature range of 1042–1234 K at the 80-bar operating pressure of the test engine. Blends of methane, hydrogen, and reformate products from the SMR reaction are shock-heated in synthetic air, with the ignition delay time measured using an OH* chemiluminescence detector at 310 nm and a CH* detector at 430 nm. The experimental results are compared to several state-of-the-art chemical kinetic mechanisms from the literature. In general, most of the mechanisms show very good agreement with experiments at higher temperatures, with simulation results showing little deviation from experiments at lower temperatures. A sensitivity analysis was conducted, and the results reveal that the reaction H2 + CH3O2 = H + CH3O2H has a very significant role in determining low-temperature ignition delay times (IDTs) of SMR mixtures. These findings provide valuable insights into the chemical kinetics governing methane reformate combustion and contribute to the optimization of onboard reformer designs aimed at mitigating methane slip in natural gas-fueled engines.

Fraze, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can mesoscale models capture the effect from cluster wakes offshore?

Long wakes from offshore wind turbine clusters can extend tens of kilometers downstream, affecting the wind resource of a large area. Given the ability of mesoscale numerical weather prediction models to capture important atmospheric phenomena and mechanisms relevant to wake evolution, they are often used to simulate wakes behind large wind turbine clusters and their impact over a wider region. Yet, uncertainty persists regarding the accuracy of representing cluster wakes via mesoscale models and their wind turbine parameterizations. Here, we evaluate the accuracy of the Fitch wind farm parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting model in capturing cluster-wake effects using two different options to represent turbulent mixing in the planetary boundary layer. To this end, we compare operational data from an offshore wind farm in the North Sea that is fully or partially waked by an upstream array against high-resolution mesoscale simulations. In general, we find that mesoscale models accurately represent the effect of cluster wakes on front-row turbines of a downstream wind farm. However, the same models may not accurately capture cluster-wake effects on an entire downstream wind farm, due to misrepresenting internal-wake effects.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗