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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Implementing an Objectives-Driven, Risk-Informed, and Case-Assured Approach to Safety and Mission Success at NASA

NASA is developing a “Standard for Assurance of Space Flight Safety and Mission Success” that implements an objectives-driven, risk-informed, and case-assured approach to safety and mission success (S&MS) for NASA space flight programs and projects. The standard aligns with the philosophy of risk leadership that has recently been established in NASA policy to assure acceptable levels of flight crew safety and mission success risk. It is consistent with existing NASA risk management requirements and is compatible with NASA program management and systems engineering requirements. The methodology described in the standard is presented in terms of an S&MS assurance framework that is designed to allow substantial flexibility in the specific means by which programs and projects achieve acceptable mission S&MS risk. Such flexibility is necessary to accommodate the increasingly broad range of acquisition strategies employed by NASA, including commercial transportation services, as well as to accommodate the increasingly rapid evolution of space flight-related technologies and practices. A key feature of the S&MS assurance framework is the specification of S&MS success criteria for each life-cycle review (LCR). The S&MS assurance case is structured around these criteria, the satisfaction of which indicates that the program/project is adhering to the S&MS risk posture. This enables the evolving S&MS assurance case to be used as a fundamental program/project submittal at each LCR, where its inherent structure of argument, supported by evidence, directly supports the evaluation of the program/project with respect to the S&MS success criteria, and by extension, the S&MS risk posture. As such, the S&MS assurance case is integral to program/project systems engineering, risk management, and S&MS oversight activities, and provides the principal basis for S&MS risk acceptance by the Decision Authority throughout the program/project life cycle.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Risk-Informed Operations and Maintenance Decision Making Using Deep Reinforcement Learning

A challenge for operating nuclear power plants is the significant cost of operations and maintenance, at times consuming up to 66% of annual operating costs. This project aims to build a framework for a risk-informed asset-management tool that integrates inspections, repairs, spare-part inventory, supply chain, and business choices to lower overall O&M costs. Our approach uses a combination of data-driven modeling and deep reinforcement learning to create and implement optimal maintenance policies for the existing nuclear fleet, as well as new advanced reactors. The creation of an asset management tool that uses these advanced methods will give operators new capabilities to help reduce the burden of O&M spending in nuclear power plants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

An integrated integral projection model ( IPM 2 ) to disentangle size‐structured harvest and natural mortality

Abstract Body size is one of the most important traits governing individual‐level demographic rates and modulating population‐level processes. Multiple size‐dependent demographic rates can simultaneously change population structure, so distinguishing their individual contributions to overall population dynamics remains a challenge. Disentangling size‐dependent harvest rates from other demographic rates is critical for assessing the impact of removal on populations of invasive species. Inference about invasive populations can be difficult, however, as observations are often collected opportunistically as part of removal programs, rather than experimentally designed. Yet accurate inference is essential for understanding the feasibility of population suppression and optimising management decisions. We develop an integrated integral projection model (IPM 2 ) that leverages the strengths of the integrated population model and integral projection model to enable inference about complex, size‐structured demographic rates from imperfect observations. We apply the IPM 2 in the context of invasive European green crab ( Carcinus maenas ), a species for which individual body size strongly regulates both the observation‐generating process and latent, population dynamics. The IPM 2 facilitates the distinct estimation of green crab size‐structured harvest and natural mortality rates, parameters for which no explicit data is collected and that are unidentifiable in component datasets of the integrated population model. The model represents how the green crab population changes over time, providing the first estimates of size‐structured abundance of this high‐priority species. By forecasting the stable size distribution and equilibrium population size under varying removal efforts, we demonstrate that extremely high levels of removal effort can reduce the equilibrium green crab population size. Yet these high mortality rates also shift the stable size distribution and increase the equilibrium abundance of smaller crabs, since size‐selective removal alters intraspecific interactions. The ecological outcome of this shift in size structure will be variable, as green crab size modulates only some of its interactions with other species. These results highlight the value of the IPM 2 framework for inferring complex population dynamics with information needs that outpace information in individual observational datasets, providing a path forward for accurate assessment of conservation programs.

Keller, Abigail G. [Department of Environment Scie↗
DOE OSTI2024

Clean Energy to Communities: Technical Assistance for Region Five, MN

The Region Five Development Commission (“R5DC”) serves five counties in Minnesota, USA and received an Energizing Rural Communities Prize through the U.S. Department of Energy. Currently, R5DC is piloting projects in the City of Motley, for which two energy audits have been conducted. R5DC is seeking input regarding which options to pursue based on these two audits, as well a framework for future audits to be as effective and helpful as possible. This report defines a framework for future audits for R5DC, by providing an overview of the requirements for different levels of audits and identifying available resources for conducting energy audits.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Cost-Benefit Analysis for Air Conditioner in Tunisia

This is the second report from Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) in support of developing a minimum energy performance standards (MEPS) program for ACs in Tunisia. This report builds upon a market and regulatory assessment that characterized Tunisia’s market and regulations for ACs (LBNL 2022). The current report is organized in the style of the technical support documents (TSDs) produced for U.S. appliance efficiency standards and comprises the following: a description of our analytical framework (Section 1) followed by several analyses of the context for and impacts of adopting a MEPS for ACs in Tunisia: an energy-use analysis (Section 2), engineering analysis (Section 3), life-cycle cost (LCC) analysis (Section 4), and national impact analysis (Section 5). The report concludes with policy recommendations (Section 6).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

The European wood pellets for heating market - Price developments, trade and market efficiency

Competitive international markets imply adjustments towards competitive spatial equilibrium in which excess from one market is transferred to another and prices are equilibrated except for remaining differences that can be assigned to transfer costs. The European market for wood pellets used in small-scale heating systems has been expanding significantly over the past decade. Small scale pellet heating is arguably a mature technology, but whether the market is mature is another question. In this paper we analyse recent data on trade flows and price developments between Italy, Austria, Germany and France to understand the developments of wood pellet market efficiency and to draw conclusions about market function. The objective of this study is to establish a framework to test the European residential wood pellet market for competitive spatial equilibrium using modern trade theory. We find mainly inefficiently integrated markets with remaining positive marginal profits and detectable arbitrageurs’ activity. Based on a thorough discussion of these findings and the underlying data we outline possible methodology advancements and list policy recommendations to secure access and affordability of this renewable heating commodity in the long run.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Opportunities, Challenges, and Research Needs for Remote Microreactor Operations

As the nuclear industry develops new advanced reactor technologies, many companies are embracing this advancement by pursuing the development of microreactors. The term microreactor generally refers to a nuclear reactor with an operating power of 20 MW(thermal) or less. The power range of microreactors makes them appealing for many use cases, such as powering remote communities, mining sites, and military bases. Most of the microreactor designs being pursued are expected to incorporate remote facility operations into the final product. However, no framework has yet been developed to determine what remote operations systems require for reliable, resilient, and secure operation of a microreactor. Here, this work identifies the research needs for challenges that are unique to remote operations and monitoring for microreactors, specifically regarding instrumentation and control, communication methods, regulatory requirements, and operational policies. The types of commands and sensor measurements that must be transmitted between the facilities, as well as methods for verifying the trustworthiness of these signals, are assessed. This work evaluates the security, reliability, and performance requirements that must be met when considering the selection of communication hardware and protocols for use in remote operations. Also, an assessment was performed to study how remote operations fit within current regulatory requirements and what may need to be updated in regulatory policy to allow for remote operation. Finally, the operational contingencies unique to remote operations that must be in place for responses to abnormal events are identified. This paper identifies the challenges and research opportunities within the areas of importance for the design of remote operation systems.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and quantifying uncertainty in projections of climate change impacts on air quality

Climate change can aggravate air pollution, with important public health and environmental consequences. While major sources of uncertainty in climate change projections - greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenario, model response, and internal variability - have been investigated extensively, their propagation to estimates of air quality impacts has not been systematically assessed. Here, we compare these uncertainties using a coupled modeling framework that includes a human activity model, an Earth system model of intermediate complexity, and a global atmospheric chemistry model. Uncertainties in projections of U.S. air quality under 21st century climate change are quantified based on a climate-chemistry ensemble that includes multiple initializations, representations of climate sensitivity, and climate policy scenarios, under constant air pollution emissions. We find that climate-related uncertainties are comparable at mid-century, making it difficult to distinguish the impact of variations in GHG emissions on ozone and particulate matter pollution. While GHG emissions scenario eventually becomes the dominant uncertainty based on the scenarios considered, all sources of uncertainty are significant through the end of the century. The results provide insights into intrinsically different uncertainties in projections of air pollution impacts and the potential for large ensembles to better capture them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Developing an Automated Uncertainty Quantification Tool to Improve Watershed-Scale Predictions of Water and Nutrient Cycling

Managing the flow of water, nutrients, and contaminants in watersheds is vital to addressing pressing issues related to water scarcity, access to clean drinking water, energy production, resilience to natural and anthropogenic perturbations, and ecological restoration. Decisions about the management of watersheds critically depend on the accuracy with which the flow of water and chemicals through the watershed can be predicted by computer models. Prediction uncertainty can be reduced by matching the model to data, which are collected in the field at great expense. The contribution of watershed characterization data to reducing uncertainty of relevant model predictions can be evaluated in a so-called data-worth analysis, which provides transparent, quantitative metrics about a data set’s value for the support of relevant watershed management objectives. To achieve this goal, we developed a software package that implements the data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. The purpose of the proposed data-worth analysis is to help decision-makers allocate resources for watershed characterization such that the uncertainty in model predictions can be significantly reduced, which leads to better, more effective management decisions. At the same time, watershed characterization costs can be reduced. The specific technical objectives of this SBIR/STTR Phase II project were to develop a framework and associated software toolsets that implement the uncertainty quantification and data-worth analysis approach for use with state-of-the-art watershed models. This goal was achieved by (A) developing a user-friendly, robust software package that is accessible to a wide audience, including watershed managers, policy-makers, and public stakeholders; (B) by demonstrating application of the prototype on several use cases that are representative of complex watershed management challenges spanning a range of scales and that consider different open-source, DOE-based codes and other modeling platforms; and (C) by gathering information about the needs and requirements from potential users to help guide future developments, ensuring that the final product will be commercially viable. The developed software consists of a graphical user interface that guides the user through a sequence of analysis steps, supported by toolsets that leverage state-of-the-art computational simulation-optimization capabilities. A prototype of the software runs on multiple platforms (PC, Mac, multi-processor Linux environment), is linked to diverse watershed simulators (e.g., ECOSYS, TOUGH2, TOUGHREACT, Amanzi-ATS), performs multiple analysis tasks (predictive simulations, sensitivity analysis, uncertainty analysis, automatic parameter estimation, and data-worth analysis, multicomponent geothermometry), and is readily extensible to include external simulators and analysis tools. The software is being commercialized and will be continually updated to address user needs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Past Approaches for Spent Nuclear Fuel, High-Level, and Transuranic Waste Disposal in the United States—Part 1: Safety Criteria and Treatment of Uncertainty

The United States (US), with its 50-year experience in developing deep geologic disposal for transuranic waste, spent nuclear fuel (SNF), and high-level radioactive waste (HLW), has much to share with other countries. Yet, other countries are better able to translate the US experience and corresponding policy decisions into solutions sensible for their country when they understand the compliance requirements in US laws and regulations. This paper presents past approaches in the generic and site-specific standards of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and implementing regulations of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) using the framework provided by (1) key questions of the Blue Ribbon Commission on America’s Nuclear Future, and (2) international consensus standards. Both the 1985 EPA generic standards, as updated in 1993 and applied at the operating Waste Isolation Pilot Plant in southern New Mexico for transuranic waste from atomic energy defense activities, and the EPA 2008 site-specific standards and implementing regulations, as applied at the proposed Yucca Mountain repository in southern Nevada for SNF and HLW, adopt the strategy of using quantitative, probabilistic analysis to assess performance and compliance.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2021

Revisiting the guidelines for ending isolation for COVID-19 patients

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, two mainstream guidelines for defining when to end the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals have been in use: the one-size-fits-all approach (i.e. patients are isolated for a fixed number of days) and the personalized approach (i.e. based on repeated testing of isolated patients). We use a mathematical framework to model within-host viral dynamics and test different criteria for ending isolation. By considering a fixed time of 10 days since symptom onset as the criterion for ending isolation, we estimated that the risk of releasing an individual who is still infectious is low (0–6.6%). However, this policy entails lengthy unnecessary isolations (4.8–8.3 days). In contrast, by using a personalized strategy, similar low risks can be reached with shorter prolonged isolations. The obtained findings provide a scientific rationale for policies on ending the isolation of SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals.

Jeong, Yong Dam↗
DOE OSTI2023

Deep reinforcement learning assisted co-optimization of Volt-VAR grid service in distribution networks

With the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources in distribution networks, Volt-VAR control and optimization (VVC/VVO) have become very important to ensure an acceptable quality of service to all customers. System operators can rely on slow-responding utility devices, including capacitor banks and on-load tap changing transformers, along with fast-responding battery and photovoltaic (PV) inverters for the VVC/VVO implementation. Because of variations in response time of these two classes of devices, and different control actions (discrete versus continuous), coordinated and optimal scheduling and operation have become of utmost importance. Here, this paper develops a look-ahead deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based multi-objective VVO technique to improve the voltage profile of active distribution networks, decrease network and inverter power loss, and save the operational cost of the grid. It proposes a deep deterministic policy gradient (DDPG)-based approach to schedule the optimal reactive and/or active power set-points of fast-responding inverters, and a deep Q-network (DQN)-based DRL agent to schedule the discrete decisions variables of slow-responding assets. The reactive power output of PV and battery smart inverters are scheduled at 30-minute intervals and the capacitors’ commitment status is scheduled with several hour intervals. The proposed framework is validated on the modified IEEE 34-bus and 123-bus test cases with embedded PV and PV-plus-storage. To validate the efficacy of the proposed VVO, it is compared with several scenarios, including the base case without VVO, localized droop control of DERs, DDPG-only, and twin delayed DDPG (TD3) agent-based DRL techniques. The results justify the superior performance of the proposed method to improve the voltage profile, reduce network power loss, and minimize the look-ahead grid operational cost while minimizing the undesirable power losses in inverters as a result of power factor adjustments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Framework for Multisector Scenarios of Outcomes for Well-Being and Resilience

Shared community scenarios of societal and environmental system changes have underpinned a broad range of research and assessment studies over the past several decades. These scenarios have largely aimed to address specific questions within broad issue areas like climate change or biodiversity and generally provided information on the drivers of change. The consequences of those drivers, such as impacts on society and policy responses, have tended to be left to the research community to investigate, using scenarios of drivers as inputs to their studies, producing projections of a disparate set of relevant output metrics. While this approach has had many benefits, it has fallen short of producing a robust, comparable literature describing outcomes across studies in common metrics. We argue that new scenarios are needed that extend current approaches to be organized around common outcome metrics for the well-being and resilience of society and ecosystems. We propose an approach that would focus on agreed upon outcomes for well-being and resilience as well as critical drivers of change, cut across issues and scales in multiple sectors, and draw on new systematic methods of scenario generation and discovery to highlight scenarios that are most critical in understanding societal risks and responding to them. Research derived from this outcome-based scenario development approach would facilitate improved assessment of risks of and responses to a range of stressors and the multi-sector interactions they generate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Learning Sequential Distribution System Restoration via Graph-Reinforcement Learning

We report a distribution service restoration algorithm as a fundamental resilient paradigm for system operators provides an optimally coordinated, resilient solution to enhance the restoration performance. The restoration problem is formulated to coordinate distribution generators and controllable switches optimally. A model-based control scheme is usually designed to solve this problem, relying on a precise model and resulting in low scalability. To tackle these limitations, this work proposes a graph-reinforcement learning framework for the restoration problem. We link the power system topology with a graph convolutional network, which captures the complex mechanism of network restoration in power networks and understands the mutual interactions among controllable devices. Latent features over graphical power networks produced by graph convolutional layers are exploited to learn the control policy for network restoration using deep reinforcement learning. The solution scalability is guaranteed by modeling distributed generators as agents in a multi-agent environment and a proper pre-training paradigm. Comparative studies on IEEE 123-node and 8500-node test systems demonstrate the performance of the proposed solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform- 4P Model

The U.S. generates 42 million metric tons of plastic waste each year - the most of any country - of which less than 9% is recycled. This represents an estimated loss of $2.3 billion and 3.4 EJ embodied energy per year. Plastic use reduction, reuse and recycling are thus increasingly important, but making informed policy and research decisions within this space can be challenging given the diverse range of available solutions. Various recycling and waste management options are available for plastics, such as conversion into energy (incineration, pyrolysis, gasification), conversion to lower- or higher-grade plastics (mechanical recycling, chemical or enzymatic depolymerization processes, dissolution) or up-cycling to feedstock chemicals (photo/electro/catalytic methods, pyrolysis, gasification). While many previous publications have investigated a subset of these options, there is currently no modelling platform that can quantitatively assess and compare the economic and environmental impacts of all these different plastic management pathways and their respective products simultaneously. To directly compare the benefits and disadvantages of plastic-to-x technologies, we propose a novel analysis framework: the Plastic Parallel Pathways Platform (4P). 4P will model a systems analysis framework for capturing plastic material flows processed via different waste management scenarios. The total economic cost and greenhouse gas emissions (as well as additional economic, energetic, and environmental metrics indicators) of a given scenario will be calculated enabling comparison to other scenarios, thereby informing decisions on plastic recycling pathways.

circular economy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization factors and other air quality impact metrics: Case study for PM 2.5 -emitting area sources from biofuel feedstock supply

In this paper, we develop a framework and metrics for estimating the impact of emission sources on regulatory compliance and human health for applications in air quality planning and life cycle impact assessment (LCIA). Our framework is based on a pollutant's characterization factor (CF) and three new metrics: Available Regulatory Capacity for Incremental Emissions (ARCIE), Source CF Ratio, and Activity Health Impact (AHI) Ratio. ARCIE can be used to assess whether a receptor location has capacity to accommodate additional source emissions while complying with regulatory limits. We present CF as a midpoint indicator of health impacts per unit mass of emitted pollutant. Source CF Ratio enables comparison of potential new-source locations based on human health impacts. The AHI Ratio estimates the health impacts of a pollutant in relation to the utilization of the source for each unit of product or service. These metrics can be applied to any pollutant, energy source sector (e.g., agriculture, electricity), source type (point, line, area), and spatial modeling domain (nation, state, city, region). We demonstrate these metrics through a case study of fine particulate (PM 2.5 ) emissions from U.S. corn stover harvesting and local processing at various scales, representing steps in the biofuel production process. We model PM 2.5 formation in the atmosphere using a novel reduced-complexity chemical transport model called the Intervention Model for Air Pollution (InMAP). Through this case study, we present the first area-source PM 2.5 CFs that address the recommendations of several LCIA studies to establish spatially explicit CFs specific to an energy source sector or type. Overall, the framework developed in this work provides multiple new ways to consider the potential impacts of air emissions through spatially differentiated metrics.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Network-Aware and Welfare-Maximizing Dynamic Pricing for Energy Sharing

The proliferation of behind-the-meter (BTM) distributed energy resources (DER) within the electrical distribution network presents significant supply and demand flexibilities, but also introduces operational challenges such as voltage spikes and reverse power flows. In response, this paper proposes a network-aware dynamic pricing framework tailored for energy-sharing coalitions that aggregate small, but ubiquitous, BTM DER downstream of a distribution system operator's (DSO) revenue meter that adopts a generic net energy metering (NEM) tariff. By formulating a Stackelberg game between the energy-sharing market leader and its prosumers, we show that the dynamic pricing policy induces the prosumers toward a network-safe operation and decentrally maximizes the energysharing social welfare. The dynamic pricing mechanism involves a combination of a locational ex-ante dynamic price and an ex-post allocation, both of which are functions of the energy sharing's BTM DER. The ex-post allocation is proportionate to the price differential between the DSO NEM price and the energy-sharing locational price. Simulation results using real DER data and the IEEE 13-bus test systems illustrate the dynamic nature of network-aware pricing at each bus, and its impact on voltage.

aggregates↗