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NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Version 2 of the International Sunspot Number on Naive Predictions of Solar Cycle 25

The recalibration of the International Sunspot Number brings new challenges to predictions of Solar Cycle 25. One is that the list of extrema for the original series is no longer usable because the values of all maxima and minima are different for the new version of the sunspot number. Timings of extrema are less sensitive to the recalibration but are a natural result of the calculation. Predictions of Solar Cycle 25 published before 2016 must be converted to the new version of the sunspot number. Any prediction method that looks across the entire time span will have to be reconsidered because values in the nineteenth century were corrected by a larger factor than those in the twentieth century. We report a list of solar maxima and minima values and timings based on the recalibrated sunspot number. Naïve forecasts that depend only on the current values of the time series are common in economic studies. Several naïve predictions of Solar Cycle 25, the climatological average (180 ± 60), two versions of the inertial forecast, and two versions of the even-odd forecast, are derived from that table. The climatological average forecast is the baseline for more accurate predictions and the initial forecast in assimilative models of the Sun. It also provides the error estimate for Monte Carlo techniques that anticipate the long-term effects on the terrestrial environment. The other four predictions are shown to be statistically insignificant.

Pesnell, W. Dean↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and automation, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Tong, Michael T.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Prediction of Weather Impacts on Airport Arrival Meter Fix Capacity

This paper introduces a data driven model for predicting airport arrival capacity with a look-ahead time 2-8 hour forecast. The model is suitable for air traffic flow management by explicitly investigating the impact of convective weather on airport arrival meter fix throughput. Estimation of the arrival airport capacity under arrival meter fix flow constraints due to severe weather is an important part of Air Traffic Management (ATM). Airport arrival capacity can be reduced if one or more airport arrival meter fixes are partially or completely blocked by convective weather. When the predicted airport arrival demands exceed the predicted available airport's arrival capacity for a sustained period, Ground Delay Program (GDP) operations will be triggered by ATM system. Serious imbalances between demand and capacity occur most frequently when the airport capacity is severely degraded due to either bad airport terminal surface weather or inclement convective weather around airport arrival fixes. A model that predicts the weather-impacted airport arrival meter fix throughput may help ATM personnel to plan GDP operations more efficiently. This paper identifies the characteristics of air traffic flow across arrival meter fixes at Newark Liberty International Airport (EWR). The proposed approach, based on machine-learning methods, is developed to predict the weather impacted EWR arrival Meter Fix (MF) throughput. Sector forecast coverage is used to envision the weather impact on airport arrival MF flow, and the validation is accomplished by using Convective Weather Avoidance Model (CWAM) 0.5 to 2-hour and Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP) 4 to 8-hour look-ahead forecast data for the period of April-September in 2014. Furthermore, the regression tree ensemble learning of random forests approach for translating a sector forecast coverage model to an EWR arrival meter fix throughput model is examined. The results suggest that ATM decision makers in charge of MF flow control and GDP planning may benefit from adopting the airport arrival meter capacity prediction models to estimate the inclement weather impacts.

Wang, Yao X.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Prediction of Pushback Times and Ramp Taxi Times for Departures at Charlotte Airport

When optimizing the takeoff sequence and schedule for departures at busy airports, it is important to accurately predict the taxi times from gate to runway because those are used to calculate the earliest possible takeoff times. Several airports like Charlotte Douglas International Airport show relatively long taxi times inside the ramp area with large variations, with respect to the travel times in the airport movement area. Also, the pushback process times have not been accurately modeled so far mainly due to the lack of accurate data. The recent deployment of the integrated arrival, departure, and surface traffic management system at Charlotte airport by NASA enables more accurate flight data in the airport surface operations to be obtained. Taking advantage of this system, actual pushback times and ramp taxi times from historical flight data at this airport are analyzed. Based on the analysis, a simple, data-driven prediction model is introduced for estimating pushback times and ramp transit times of individual departure flights. To evaluate the performance of this prediction model, several machine learning techniques are also applied to the same dataset. The prediction results show that the data-driven prediction model is as good as the machine learning algorithms when comparing various prediction performance metrics.

Lee, Hanbong↗
NASA NTRS2019

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multi-Model Subseasonal Prediction Experiment

SubX is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment designed around operational requirements with the goal of improving subseasonal forecasts. Seven global models have produced seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and more than a year of weekly real-time forecasts. The re-forecasts and forecasts are archived at the Data Library of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, providing a comprehensive database for research on subseasonal to seasonal predictability and predictions. The SubX models show skill for temperature and precipitation three weeks ahead of time in specific regions. The SubX multi-model ensemble mean is more skillful than any individual model overall. Skill in simulating the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), two sources of subseasonal predictability, is also evaluated with skillful predictions of the MJO four weeks in advance and of the NAO 2 weeks in advance. SubX is also able to make useful contributions to operational forecast guidance at the Climate Prediction Center. Additionally, SubX provides information on the potential for extreme precipitation associated with tropical cyclones which can help emergency management and aid organizations to plan for disasters. (Capsule Summary) A research to operations project in service of developing better operational subseasonal forecasts.

Precipitation↗
NASA NTRS2019

Using Machine Learning to Predict Core Sizes of High-Efficiency Turbofan Engines

With the rise in big data and analytics, machine learning is transforming many industries. It is being increasingly employed to solve a wide range of complex problems, producing autonomous systems that support human decision-making. For the aircraft engine industry, machine learning of historical and existing engine data could provide insights that help drive for better engine design. This work explored the application of machine learning to engine preliminary design. Engine core-size prediction was chosen for the first study because of its relative simplicity in terms of number of input variables required (only three). Specifically, machine-learning predictive tools were developed for turbofan engine core-size prediction, using publicly available data of two hundred manufactured engines and engines that were studied previously in NASA aeronautics projects. The prediction results of these models show that, by bringing together big data, robust machine-learning algorithms and data science, a machine learning-based predictive model can be an effective tool for turbofan engine core-size prediction. The promising results of this first study paves the way for further exploration of the use of machine learning for aircraft engine preliminary design.

Core Size↗
NASA NTRS2019

Integrating Remote Sensing Observations with NASA's GEOS-5 Modeling Framework in Support of Retrospective Analyses and Seasonal Prediction of Biosphere-Atmosphere CO2 Flux

The absorption of nearly half of all anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by terrestrial and marine ecosystems has played a critical role in mitigating climate change. However, a persistent lack of understanding of these uptake processes impedes attribution, and thereby introduces large uncertainties into projections of the trajectory of carbon and climate in coming decades. A better understanding and quantification of the seasonal and interannual variability of carbon flux between the atmosphere and ocean and terrestrial biospheres is critically needed to improve predictions from Earth system models. We propose to bring together a diverse suite of remote sensing observations, mechanistic models, and NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System, version 5 (GEOS-5) model to address two objective 1) quantify the processes controlling the temporal variability of biosphere-atmosphere CO2 flux on seasonal and interannual timescales from 1989 to 2018 and 2) evaluating the predictability of the components of carbon flux on seasonal timescales. Because GEOS-5 has been developed to incorporate a variety of Earth system observations and includes a complete and physically consistent depiction of the atmosphere, land, and ocean carbon cycles, it represents a unique and ideal synthesis framework for this effort. By expanding the realism of processes that could be included in GEOS-5 seasonal forecasts, this effort supports NASA's goals toward an integrated Earth system modeling and prediction framework.We propose to integrate a number of observations into the GEOS-5 modeling system to refine retrospective estimates of both terrestrial and marine carbon flux and to test hypotheses regarding the effects of climate drivers on terrestrial carbon flux. This will include assimilating several satellite ocean color products in the NASA Ocean Biogeochemistry Model (NOBM) to improve the representation of ocean biology. We will also utilize remote sensing datasets to increase the temporal resolution of global land-use change estimates and fire emissions to better constrain the temporal variability of the terrestrial carbon cycle. This information will be incorporated into two NASA terrestrial biosphere models Catchment-CN, a dynamic vegetation model that is integrated within GEOS-5 and the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, a core modeling resource supporting the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) mission to map biomass. Fluxes will be evaluated through 1) comparison to top-down flux estimates inferred from surface CO2 observations and 2) comparison against available aircraft and satellite observations.By combining predictions of net ecosystem exchange and air-sea CO2 flux from land and ocean models with statistical predictions of land use change, fire, and fossil fuel emissions, we propose to create the first dynamical CO2 forecast on seasonal timescales. Because of the experimental nature of this endeavor, an important project objective will be to evaluate the limits to the predictability of different carbon cycle processes over lead times of 1-12 months using different satellite and surface data streams.

Ott, Lesley↗
NASA NTRS2019

Circulating miRNA Signature Predicts Health Risks Associated with Radiation and Microgravity

The many known health risks currently associated with space travel include increased risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer, central nervous system related diseases, muscle degeneration, and changes with host-gut microbiome interactions that can have profound impact with these and other health risks. The majority of the risk from space travel stem of the two components of the space environment which are microgravity and radiation. From our earlier work (Beheshti et al, PLOS One, 2018), we predicted that there is a systemic component of the host that causes general increased health risks due to spaceflight driven by a circulating microRNA (miRNA) signature consisting of 13 miRNAs that directly regulates both p53 and TGF1. MiRNAs are small non-coding RNA molecules with a negative and post-transcriptional regulation on gene expression) are increasingly recognized as major systemic regulators of responses to stressors, including microgravity, oxidative stress, and DNA damage. In addition, due to the size and stability of miRNAs, it is known that miRNAs can circulate throughout the body and have been found in the majority of the bodily fluids including blood, urine, saliva, and tears. Here, we start to dissect the actual impact of this miRNA signature on both the radiation and microgravity components and prove that this miRNA signature actually exists in the circulation of a host. To achieve this, we obtained multiple tissues including, serum, liver, and spleen and utilizing droplet digital PCR (ddPCR), we start to show how this circulating miRNA signature impacts which component of the spaceflight. The tissue was obtained from experiments performed on C57BL/6 male mice (N=10 for each condition) that were hindlimb unloaded (HU) to simulated microgravity, irradiated with 2Gy gamma (IR), HU plus IR, and control mice under normal conditions. It was shown that these miRNAs were present in the serum as predicted by the in silico prediction from our earlier predictions. The HU vs Controls show significant increases of the predicted miRNAs in the serum for more than half of the miRNA signature, with remaining miRNAs increasing comparing to the controls close to statistical significance. IR vs control mice showed increases for the miRNAs, but not has pronounced as the HU conditions. Finally, the combination of the HU+IR vs controls showed increases for the majority of the miRNA signature. The data indicates that the miRNA signature originally predicted through in silico methods is mainly associated with the microgravity component and is circulating throughout the host resulting in a systemic impact of the miRNAs on the host. These miRNAs are shown in the literature to potentially increase health risks associated with several diseases. In addition, we have begun testing the potential of utilizing antagonists to this miRNA signature to act as a potential countermeasure to mitigate radiation impact on the organism. This work demonstrates for the first time the potential of a minimally invasive novel biomarker and countermeasure that can be used to mitigate both radiation and microgravity effects.

Beheshti, Afshin↗
NASA NTRS2020

A 3D Model to Predict Explicit Morphologies and Volume Fraction of Lack-of-Fusion Pores Generated in Selective Laser Melting Processes

The performance of an additively manufactured (AM) component is dependent on the distribution of process-induced defects in addition to the complex microstructure of the material, surface roughness of the component and the process-induced residual stresses. For instance, it has been well demonstrated that lack-of-fusion (LoF) pores produced in the selective laser melting (SLM) AM process can significantly limit the fatigue performance of the material. Although two-dimensional (2D) models exist to predict the 2D profiles of LoF pores, the 2D pore profiles cannot be directly inserted into a three-dimensional (3D) microstructure domain that is output from several prevailing process simulation packages. A few commercial packages that simulate the SLM process can predict LoF pores in a 3D domain, but the morphologies of LoF pores are voxelated and hence do not capture sharp corners of the pores, thereby obviating their use in fatigue crack initiation studies. In order to address the aforementioned gaps, a high-fidelity model that predicts not only the volume fraction, but also the explicit 3D morphologies and spatial distributions of LoF pores has been developed using a computer aided design-based environment. The model has been partially validated for Ti-6Al-4V alloy by comparing the predictions of the volume fraction of LoF pores predicted by the model with experimental data obtained from the literature. Absolute error in predicted volume fraction of LoF pores varied between 5.16% and 1.87% for energy density values between 13 J/mm3 and 45 J/mm3 where a significant amount (over 3% volume fraction) of LoF porosity was measured. The absolute error was within 1.87% for energy density values greater than 45 J/mm3.

Saikumar R. Yeratapally↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Improved Prediction of Losses with Large Eddy Simulation in a Low-Pressure Turbine

There is a need to improve predictions of losses resulting from large eddy simulations (LES) of low-pressure turbines (LPT) in gas turbines. This may be done by assessing the accuracy of predictions against validation data and understanding the source of any inaccuracies. LES is a promising approach for capturing the laminar/turbulent transition process in a LPT. In previous studies, the authors utilized LES to model the flow field over a Variable Speed Power Turbine (VSPT) blade and successfully captured characteristic features of separation/reattachment and transition on the suction side at both the cruise (positive incidence) and take-off conditions (negative incidence) and as well, simulated the effect of freestream turbulence (FST) on those phenomena. The predicted pressure loading profiles agreed well with the experimental data for both a high and a low FST case at a Reynolds number of Reex=220,000. In this paper, we present wake profiles resulting from computations for a range of FST values. Although the predicted wake profiles for the lowest FST case (Tu=0.5%) matched the experimental data, at higher FST (Tu=10-15%,) the wake was wider than the experimentally measured wake and for both cases were displaced laterally when compared to the experimental measurements. In our investigation of the causes of the said discrepancies we have identified important effects which could strongly influence the predicted wake profile. Predicted losses were improved by assuring the validity of the flow solution. This was done by utilizing spectral analysis to scrutinize the dynamic behavior of the wake and determine solution accuracy resulting from low mesh density and low accuracy of convective modeling.

CFD↗
NASA NTRS2022

Improved Prediction of Losses with Large Eddy Simulation in a Low-Pressure Turbine

There is a need to improve predictions of losses resulting from large eddy simulations (LES) of low-pressure turbines (LPT) in gas turbines. This may be done by assessing the accuracy of predictions against validation data and understanding the source of any inaccuracies. LES is a promising approach for capturing the laminar/turbulent transition process in a LPT. In previous studies, the authors utilized LES to model the flow field over a Variable Speed Power Turbine (VSPT) blade and successfully captured characteristic features of separation/reattachment and transition on the suction side at both the cruise (positive incidence) and take-off conditions (negative incidence) and as well, simulated the effect of free-stream turbulence (FST) on those phenomena. The predicted pressure loading profiles agreed well with the experimental data for both a high and a low FST case at a Reynolds number of Re(ex)=220,000. In this paper, we present wake profiles resulting from computations for a range of FST values. Although the predicted wake profiles for the lowest FST case (Tu=0.5%) matched the experimental data, at higher FST (Tu=10-15%,) the wake was wider than the experimentally measured wake and for both cases were displaced laterally when compared to the experimental measurements. In our investigation of the causes of the said discrepancies we have identified important effects which could strongly influence the predicted wake profile. Predicted losses were improved by assuring the validity of the flow solution. This was done by utilizing spectral analysis to scrutinize the dynamic behavior of the wake and determine solution accuracy resulting from low mesh density and low accuracy of convective modeling.

LES-LDKM↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Lift Common Research Model: RANS, HRLES and WMLES Perspectives for CLmax Prediction Using LAVA

A unified assessment of three turbulence treatments: Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes(RANS), Hybrid RANS/LES (HRLES) and Equilibrium Wall-Modelled Large Eddy Simulation(WMLES) is presented for the High-Lift Common Research Model (CRM-HL). For the free-air configuration, steady-state RANS simulations show very accurate drag polar predictions in the low-𝛼linear regime. However, strong grid sensitivity is reported near the maximum lift-state(𝐶𝐿max), with finer-grids showing larger errors and predicting erroneous flow topologies on the wing. Our RANS simulations show that several corrections for the Spalart-Allmaras (SA)turbulence model widely used in the community lead to more erroneous results compared to the baseline closure, without exception. Both scale-resolving methods (HRLES and WMLES)address these drawbacks and predict an outboard separation pattern on the main element that is in good agreement with the oil flow photographs taken from the QinetiQ wind tunnel experiments, when LES-appropriate grids and numerical discretizations are used. While RANS simulations with the baseline SA closure do not show any wing-root separation post𝐶𝐿max, both HRLES and WMLES show onset of corner flow separation with varying degrees of progression, along with a weak pitch break in the wing-contribution of the overall pitching moment. This post-𝐶𝐿max pitch break seen in the free-air simulations is weaker than the break observed in experiments, with a weaker break reported in WMLES for each iteration of grid-refinement. In-tunnel simulations using both SA-baseline RANS and WMLES show a much stronger post-𝐶𝐿max break with the WMLES predictions showing excellent agreement with the experiment in terms of both the flow-topology observed and the pressure-coefficients at various spanwise stations. Sensitivity to the tunnel wall boundary layer is characterized via comparisons between viscous and inviscid treatments for the tunnel walls. WMLES predictions show moderate sensitivity at the predicted inboard flow-state at 𝐶𝐿max along with the progression towards a post-𝐶𝐿max stall; however, this stalled state at 𝛼≈20◦(inside the tunnel) obtained with both tunnel wall treatments appears to be largely identical.

TTT↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparing Acoustic Prediction Methods for Additively Manufactured Porous Strutures

While macroscale methods for predicting the acoustic properties of porous structures have been popular in the past, they often require time-consuming manufacturing and testing workflows. Meanwhile, microscale approaches allow the prediction of transport parameters based exclusively on a periodic structure’s unit cell geometry. Here, we compare these methods to predict the characteristic impedance of additively manufactured porous structures. We use the microscale approach to estimate the geometry’s transport parameters, then predict the characteristic properties using the Johnson-Champoux-Allard (JCA) model. We measure the acoustic properties of the printed structures using a normal incidence impedance tube and estimate the transport parameters using an inverse characterization approach. We use the two-thickness method as a macroscale approach to predict the characteristic properties from the measured surface impedances of two sample thicknesses. Finally, we compare these characteristic prediction methods. Our results show that the inverse characterization and two-thickness methods offer the closest match to the measured values at low frequencies.

impedance↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Maximum Temperatures of a Li-ion Battery on a Simulated Flight Profile using a Model-based Prognostics

One of the challenges in using Li-ion packs in aeronautics is their safety, and thermal runaway (TR) is a major concern. The current engineering solutions to prevent a Li-ion pack from a catastrophic TR require additional mass and volume to isolate cells. The excess mass could be reduced by improving detection and, thus, preventing a TR event. One of the possible early warning indicators of a TR is crossing a threshold temperature. We have developed an approach, based on the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF), to predict the likelihood of reaching the threshold temperature for simulated flight profiles. The current battery prognostics algorithms for aerospace predict state-of-charge (SOC) and end-of-life (EOL) [1]. We extended this two-level algorithm to predict the maximum temperature during discharge. The amount of heat generated in a cell depends on factors such as cell chemistry, cell packaging, total cycles, operating temperature, and abuse history [2]. Our semi-empirical thermal model depends on three phenomenological parameters which account for those factors. In addition, a two-parameter reduced-order model is developed to predict the temperature rise for short bursts of “random-walk” (RW) discharge current sequence, which simulates a flight's current-loading profile. The performance of these models on different datasets and types of current loading will be presented. To predict the maximal temperatures for future cycles we must estimate the evolution of thermal parameters as the batteries age. It is found that the parameters of the 3-parametric thermal model cannot be estimated only from the RW data. To address the issue, we will present two alternative approaches: i) expanding the datasets to include discharge profiles beyond RWs; ii) model reduction to a two-parametric model. The two approaches will be illustrated by an application to the cycling data from a commercial LG 18650 cell. References: 1. M. Daigle, C.S. Kulkarni, End-of-discharge and End-of-life Prediction in Lithium-ion Batteries with Electrochemistry-based Aging Models, in: AIAA Infotech @ Aerospace, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, San Diego, California, USA, 2016. 2. M. Börner, et. al, Correlation of aging and thermal stability of commercial 18650-type lithium ion batteries, Journal of Power Sources. 342 (2017) 382–392.

Thermal runaway↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Prediction Modeling Methodologies for Aeroacoustic Characterization of Hovering sUAS Rotors

This work compared artificial neural network and multivariate orthogonal function modeling methodologies for the prediction and characterization of isolated hovering sUAS rotor aerodynamics and aeroacoustics. Design of Experiments was used to create input feature spaces over 9 input features: the number of rotor blades, rotor size, rotor speed, the amount of blade twist, blade taper ratio, tip chord length, collective pitch, airfoil camber, and airfoil thickness. CAMRAD~II and AARON were executed at the points defined by the input feature space to predict aerodynamic and aeroacoustic quantities. These predicted aerodynamic and aeroacoustic data were then used to generate artificial neural networks and polynomial response surface models. The two prediction model methodologies were evaluated over test data previously unseen by the models, which showed good prediction capabilities for both model types, with slightly lower prediction error for the artificial neural networks. A characterization study was performed, which showed that input features correspondent to the spanwise sectional blade lift and drag were the most significant factors to the aerodynamic thrust and power, respectively. It was also shown that the aeroacoustic quantities were highly dependent on variations in rotor speed and size, which affect the Doppler factor for tonal noise and the spanwise Reynolds number for broadband noise.

Christopher S Thurman↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Analysis of Barriers Preventing the Widespread Adoption of Predictive and Prescriptive Maintenance in Aviation

The aviation industry has long recognized the potential benefits of predictive maintenance, a maintenance strategy that leverages sensor and operational data to predict the future degradation of components. Prescriptive maintenance takes this a step further and considers the entire aviation ecosystem to schedule maintenance actions optimally. With the ability to reduce maintenance costs by up to 30%, as reported by the Department of Energy, these maintenance strategies have been identified to be an important investment to reduce a airline costs. However, despite great interest and technological advances in areas such as diagnostics, prognostics, sensing, computation, and machine learning, the adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance has not been widely applied in aviation. To shed light on this issue, we conducted an analysis of the barriers preventing or limiting the adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance in aviation. Through discussions with subject matter experts across industry, academia, standards bodies, and government, we identified five key challenges: complexity of prediction; validation, safety assurance, and regulatory challenges; cost of adoption; difficulty in quantifying impact and informing decisions; and data availability, quality, and ownership challenges. This study provides a detailed overview of these barriers and areas where stakeholders could invest to overcome them, aiming to support the scaled adoption of predictive and prescriptive maintenance in aviation.

Christopher Teubert↗
NASA NTRS2022

MSL MMRTG Power Modeling for Lifetime Performance Predictions

The Multi-Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generator (MMRTG) has been providing power to the Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) rover, Curiosity, for surface operations since 2012. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) has employed the Life Performance Prediction Model (LPPM) to generate predictions and outputs based upon flight data from the rover and experimental data from the thermoelectric (TE) couples. In order to make these predictions, LPPM requires various spacecraft inputs relevant to RTG performance such as fin root temperature, load voltage, general purpose heat source (GPHS) inventory, etc., combined with couple data such as thermoelectric properties, interface degradation, and sublimation properties. With tens of thousands of hours of flight data to date, LPPM can not only track performance to date, but also make predictions on the power output of the MMRTG through the 17-year end-of-design-life (EODL). These predictions are useful for mission planners and surface operators who rely on the MMRTG for power in order to perform the critical science necessary during the mission. This paper will showcase the power data extracted from the flight electronics, comparing it to the predictions and outputs generated from LPPM.

Pinkowski, Stanley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Broadband Predictions of Optimized Proprotors in Axial Forward Flight

A low-fidelity toolchain was used to predict broadband self-noise trends for three proprotors in axial flight: a baseline (C24ND) and two acoustically constrained proprotors (OPT-III and COPR-3). Rotor loads were predicted with the ANOPP Propeller Analysis System (PAS) and self-noise was predicted with the semiempirical method of Brooks, Pope, and Marcolini (BPM) implemented in the ANOPP2 Self-Noise Internal Functional Module (ASNIFM). Comparisons to experimental data revealed that trends for turbulent boundary layer trailing edge (TBL-TE) noise could be modeled across several flight conditions by increasing the boundary layer thicknesses via the trip setting. Since the Mach number range of the BPM method is exceeded in these predictions, a dependence of boundary layer displacement thickness on blade station Mach number was suggested as a possible reason for needing to model thicker boundary layers, suggesting that the TBL-TE model needs to be developed further. Bluntness vortex shedding noise (BVS) predictions required tuning the trailing edge thickness and trailing edge closure angle for each flight condition to match experimental trends, demonstrating that the BVS noise model is incomplete and that BVS noise may vary with the angle of attack. This study indicates that the BPM self-noise method needs to be improved, which will lead to more accurate broadband predictions.

Broadband self-noise↗