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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24

NASA Earth Exchange – Current overview of climate and wildfire-oriented works

NASA Earth Exchange (NEX) combines state-of-the-art supercomputing, Earth system modeling, and NASA remote sensing data feeds to deliver a work environment for exploring and analyzing petabyte-scale datasets covering large regions, continents, or the globe. As an accessible platform, NEX can accelerate fundamental research, develop new applications, and reduce overall project costs by providing the research community with data, software, and high-end computing power. Two research thrusts for the NEX community are developing and distributing the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 downscaled climate dataset and the community-driven wildfire research. NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and across two of the four “Tier 1” greenhouse gas emissions scenarios known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). The wildfire research thrust leverages geostationary and low earth orbit remote sensing platforms and advanced modeling (WRF). We present a high-level overview of the NEX community, discuss relevant datasets and show several visualization techniques of data used in the wildfire research activity.

NEX↗

Advanced technology satellites in the commercial environment. Volume 1: Executive summary

A set of scenarios, based on a set of traffic demand forecasts is postulated. The scenarios use a demand-driven model to launch satellites, with other limits on the available (and economical) technology. The results using a low traffic forecast show a continuing oversupply of transponders. However, the scenarios using a high traffic forecast show that considerable advanced technology including the use of 30/20 GHz is needed to satisfy demand.

Source record↗

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗

A New Approach to Evaluate and Reduce Uncertainty of Model-Based Biodiversity Projections for Conservation Policy Formulation

Biodiversity projections with uncertainty estimates under different climate, land-use, and policy scenarios are essential to setting and achieving international targets to mitigate biodiversity loss. Evaluating and improving biodiversity predictions to better inform policy decisions remains a central conservation goal and challenge. A comprehensive strategy to evaluate and reduce uncertainty of model outputs against observed measurements and multiple models would help to produce more robust biodiversity predictions. We propose an approach that integrates biodiversity models and emerging remote sensing and in-situ data streams to evaluate and reduce uncertainty with the goal of improving policy-relevant biodiversity predictions. In this article, we describe a multivariate approach to directly and indirectly evaluate and constrain model uncertainty, demonstrate a proof of concept of this approach, embed the concept within the broader context of model evaluation and scenario analysis for conservation policy, and highlight lessons from other modeling communities.

Bonnie J E Myers↗

A Martian global groundwater model

A global groundwater flow model was constructed for Mars to study hydrologic response under a variety of scenarios, improving and extending earlier simple cross sectional models. The model is capable of treating both steady state and transient flow as well as permeability that is anisotropic in the horizontal dimensions. A single near surface confining layer may be included (representing in these simulations a coherent permafrost layer). Furthermore, in unconfined flow, locations of complete saturation and seepage are determined. The flow model assumes that groundwater gradients are sufficiently low that DuPuit conditions are satisfied and the flow component perpendicular to the ground surface is negligible. The flow equations were solved using a finite difference method employing 10 deg spacing of latitude and longitude.

Howard, Alan D.↗

Network modelling for the Space Station Training Facility

Simulation models for LANs to be used in the proposed Space Station Training Facility, including models developed for Ethernet, Starlan, token ring, and Fiber Distributed Data Interface LANs, are discussed. Results of model runs for the basic configuration, for burst traffic, and for a growth scenario are presented. The PAWS and Network II.5 modeling tools are compared.

Hajare, Ankur R.↗

A Cognitive-System Model for En Route Air Traffic Management

NASA Ames Research Center has been engaged in the development of advanced air traffic management technologies whose basic form is cognitive aiding systems for air traffic controller and flight deck operations. In the design and evaluation of such systems the dynamic interaction between the airborne aiding system and the ground-based aiding systems forms a critical coupling for control. The human operator is an integral control element in the system and the optimal integration of human decision and performance parameters with those of the automation aiding systems offers a significant challenge to cognitive engineering. This paper presents a study in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance. We have found that this combination of methodologies provide a powerful design-aiding process. We have extended the computational model Man Machine Integrated Design and Analysis System (N13DAS) to include representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems), operating aircraft airline operations centers and air traffic control centers in the evolving airspace. The demands of this application require the representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, and coordinating action/intention with cooperative scheduling of goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator's activity structures have been developed to include prioritization and interruption of multiple parallel activities among multiple operators, to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. We have exercised this model in a multi-air traffic sector scenario with potential conflict among aircraft at and across sector boundaries. We have modeled the control situation as a multiple closed loop system. The inner and outer loop alerting structure of air traffic management has many implications that need to be investigated to assure adequate design. First, there are control and stability factors implicit in the design. As the inner loop response time approaches that of the outer loop, system stability may be compromised in that controllers may be solving a problem the nature of which has already been changed by pilot action. Second, information exchange and information presentation for both air and ground must be designed to complement as opposed to compete with each other. Third, the level of individual and shared awareness in trajectory modification and flight conformance needs to be defined. Fourth, the level of required awareness and performance impact of mixed fleet operations and failed-mode recovery must be explored.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

Evaluating the Credibility of Transport Processes in Simulations of Ozone Recovery using the Global Modeling Initiative Three-dimensional Model

The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) has integrated two 36-year simulations of an ozone recovery scenario with an offline chemistry and tra nsport model using two different meteorological inputs. Physically ba sed diagnostics, derived from satellite and aircraft data sets, are d escribed and then used to evaluate the realism of temperature and transport processes in the simulations. Processes evaluated include barri er formation in the subtropics and polar regions, and extratropical w ave-driven transport. Some diagnostics are especially relevant to sim ulation of lower stratospheric ozone, but most are applicable to any stratospheric simulation. The global temperature evaluation, which is relevant to gas phase chemical reactions, showed that both sets of me teorological fields have near climatological values at all latitudes and seasons at 30 hPa and below. Both simulations showed weakness in upper stratospheric wave driving. The simulation using input from a g eneral circulation model (GMI(GCM)) showed a very good residual circulation in the tropics and Northern Hemisphere. The simulation with inp ut from a data assimilation system (GMI(DAS)) performed better in the midlatitudes than it did at high latitudes. Neither simulation forms a realistic barrier at the vortex edge, leading to uncertainty in the fate of ozone-depleted vortex air. Overall, tracer transport in the offline GML(GCM) has greater fidelity throughout the stratosphere tha n it does in the GMI(DAS)

Strahan, Susan E.↗

Monte Carlo Simulations of the Formation Flying Dynamics for the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) Mission

The MMS mission is an ambitious space physics mission that will fly 4 spacecraft in a tetrahedron formation in a series of highly elliptical orbits in order to study magnetic reconnection in the Earth's magnetosphere. The mission design is comprised of a combination of deterministic orbit adjust and random maintenance maneuvers distributed over the 2.5 year mission life. Formal verification of the requirements is achieved by analysis through the use of the End-to-End (ETE) code, which is a modular simulation of the maneuver operations over the entire mission duration. Error models for navigation accuracy (knowledge) and maneuver execution (control) are incorporated to realistically simulate the possible maneuver scenarios that might be realized These error models, coupled with the complex formation flying physics, lead to non-trivial effects that must be taken into account by the ETE automation. Using the ETE code, the MMS Flight Dynamics team was able to demonstrate that the current mission design satisfies the mission requirements.

Schiff, Conrad↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-27659-DND

The Arctic is warming fast, a trend expected to continue. Rapid Arctic warming has far-reaching implications affecting the global energy budget, sea level rise, the global carbon cycle, and potentially the atmospheric and oceanic circulation. Our understanding of the forcing mechanisms driving Arctic climate change has rapidly evolved in the last decade. For 40 years, the melting of sea ice and snow has been implicated as the primary driver of amplified Arctic warming, however our results indicate a shift, whereby changes in the atmospheric temperature, humidity, and clouds have surpassed the warming effects of snow and sea ice loss in the latest CMIP5 model simulations. We examine the impacts of climate feedbacks on the Arctic surface energy budget: namely surface albedo, clouds, shortwave clear-sky feedbacks, longwave clear-sky feedbacks, ocean heat content, and surface turbulent fluxes. Simulations from 16 CMIP5 models running RCP8.5, a high-emission scenario are used. We employ the methodology used in Lu and Cai (2009) on a single CMIP3 model allowing an analysis of changes between CMIP3 and CMIP5.

Robyn C Boeke↗

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for LOX/LNG explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

An Interim Set of TNT Curves for LOX/LNG Explosions

Space launch companies are actively developing, or in some cases have already developed, new vehicles that use large quantities of liquid oxygen (LOX) and liquid natural gas (LNG) propellants. This propellant mixture currently lacks sound/verified LOX/LNG explosive safety standards for use in explosive siting and flight safety analysis. In the U.S., multiple government and commercial organizations have conducted limited testing, or are preparing to conduct tests, intended to provide a sound technical basis for explosive standards applicable to space launch vehicle ground and flight operations. The limited testing and analysis conducted so far indicates the potential to produce extremely energetic explosions due to the miscibility of LOX/LNG (methane), a unique feature relative to previously used propellant mixtures such as hydrogen/oxygen or kerosene/oxygen. MOX is a homogenous mixture of methane and oxygen that is possible because of methane’s 100% miscibility in LOX. Preliminary testing by N2L, Inc. described in this paper shows that it is possible to form MOX with a variety of mixing methods, and that MOX is a sensitive high explosive capable of producing overpressures greater than comparable masses of C-4. The limited amount and quality of large-scale LOX/LNG explosive test data, and the potential formation of high-explosive MOX, create significant unknowns in the determination of hazard areas (cleared of the public) for ground operations (such as a static fire test) and flights of launch vehicles with LOX/LNG propellant. This paper will review the methods used by NASA to develop and validate the LOX/LH2 blast model using large-scale explosive test programs such as Project PYRO, the Hydrogen-Oxygen Vertical Impact (HOVI), and the Large-Scale Hydrogen-Oxygen Explosion (LSHOE) tests. This paper will describe how the same process was used to prepare an interim LOX/LNG blast model that applies to various LV failure scenarios and conservatively accounts for potential MOX formation. This paper also summarizes past and future testing and modeling efforts funded by a consortium of NASA, the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), and the US Space Force (USSF). These test programs should be concluded within the next 3 years and are intended to provide empirical data for model verification and validation.

Liquid Oxygen↗

Models for Type I supernovae

Two somewhat disjoint scenarios for Type I supernovae are presented. One scenario is based on mass accretion by a white dwarf in a binary system, while the other involves a star of 8 to 10 solar masses which may or may not be a solitary star. In spite of the apparent dissimilarities of the two models, it may be that each occurs to some extent in nature, for they both share the possibility of producing substantial quantities of Ni-56 and explosions in stars devoid of hydrogen envelopes. It is concluded that these are two properties that must be shared by any viable Type I model.

Woosley, S. E.↗

An Investigation Into Transecting Satellites in Future Space Traffic Management Scenarios

The number of satellites expected to populate the near-Earth space environment is set to dramatically increase in the coming decade as new large constellations are approved and deployed. Current strategies for placing new batches of these satellites on orbit often involve launching into an initial orbit, and then performing apogee raising maneuvers to reach a target altitude. Similarly, end-of-life planning for these constellation satellites can consist of de-orbit burns that lower perigee to permit disposal via re-entry. Both the raising and de-orbiting maneuvers can result in the individual satellites traveling in high-eccentricity orbits that have the potential to transect other spacecraft trajectories. While individual large constellations may be able to coexist in separate altitude and inclination bands, having thousands of satellites moving between these bands as new satellites are replaced and old ones are removed could pose additional collision risks. Similar concerns have been raised regarding the impact that large numbers of university-class CubeSats might have in terms of their overall collision risk, especially as these satellites typically do not have propulsion systems for active maneuvering. To assess the impact that transecting satellites might have to future space traffic management strategies, this study explored a variety of future realistic scenarios using a high-fidelity simulation tool. The model can simulate the orbit of tens of thousands of resident space objects (RSOs) simultaneously, to include active satellites, debris, rocket bodies, or even future hypothetical scenarios, using a realistic force model that incorporates non-spherical gravity, atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, and more. As the model is run forward in time, various statistics and meta-data are gathered on any predicted conjunction event, providing insight into the nature and frequency of potential collisions, e.g., what size are the two satellites, who operates the satellites, are they active or passive objects, etc. Additional customization is available in terms of how probability of collision is computed, and how the probability ellipsoids and screening volumes are determined. The simulation tool also allows for rule-based maneuvers for active satellites, e.g, given an advance conjunction “warning,” one or both of the satellites can maneuver to a safe distance. A wide range of maneuvers can be implemented using impulsive or low-thrust methods, and the latencies can also be varied, e.g., using maneuver lead times of 48 hours, 24 hours, or 12 hours. Validation of the simulation results is performed against current and historical datasets available, to include comparisons to prior conjunction data messages (CDMs), object properties (mass, volume, etc.), and two-line-element records from both public and internal sources. Using the simulation environment, an assessment on the general risks that transecting satellites might pose for hypothetical future space object environments will be presented. This will involve the simulation of approximately 50,000 new large constellation satellites, in addition to the existing catalog of approximately 20,000 known resident space objects (RSOs), over propagation periods of one month to one year. A description of the simulation methodologies, scenarios evaluated, and validation methods will also be presented, as well as a preliminary assessment of the effectiveness of several candidate maneuver strategies that have the potential to reduce collision risk between active satellites.

Brian Gunter↗

Insights into Spatial Sensitivities of Ice Mass Response to Environmental Change from the SeaRISE Ice Sheet Modeling Project I: Antarctica

Atmospheric, oceanic, and subglacial forcing scenarios from the Sea-level Response to Ice Sheet Evolution (SeaRISE) project are applied to six three-dimensional thermomechanical ice-sheet models to assess Antarctic ice sheet sensitivity over a 500 year timescale and to inform future modeling and field studies. Results indicate (i) growth with warming, except within low-latitude basins (where inland thickening is outpaced by marginal thinning); (ii) mass loss with enhanced sliding (with basins dominated by high driving stresses affected more than basins with low-surface-slope streaming ice); and (iii) mass loss with enhanced ice shelf melting (with changes in West Antarctica dominating the signal due to its marine setting and extensive ice shelves; cf. minimal impact in the Terre Adelie, George V, Oates, and Victoria Land region of East Antarctica). Ice loss due to dynamic changes associated with enhanced sliding and/or sub-shelf melting exceeds the gain due to increased precipitation. Furthermore, differences in results between and within basins as well as the controlling impact of sub-shelf melting on ice dynamics highlight the need for improved understanding of basal conditions, grounding-zone processes, ocean-ice interactions, and the numerical representation of all three.

SeaRISE↗

Benefits to world agriculture through remote sensing

Remote sensing of agricultural land permits crop classification and mensuration which can lead to improved forecasts of production. This technique is particularly important for nations which do not already have an accurate agricultural reporting system. Better forecasts have important economic effects. International grain traders can make better decisions about when to store, buy, and sell. Farmers can make better planting decisions by taking advantage of production estimates for areas out of phase with their own agricultural calendar. World economic benefits will accrue to both buyers and sellers because of increased food supply and price stabilization. This paper reviews the econometric models used to establish this scenario and estimates the dollar value of benefits for world wheat as 200 million dollars annually for the United States and 300 to 400 million dollars annually for the rest of the world.

Buffalano, A. C.↗

Historical and projected power requirements

Policy planning for projected space power requirements is discussed. Topics of discussion cover: (1) historical space power trends (prime power requirements and power system costs); and (2) two approaches to future space power requirements (mission/traffic model approach and advanced system scenario approach). Graphs, tables, and flow charts are presented.

Wolfe, M. G.↗

Constraints on early atmosphere from planetary accretion processes

Evidence for composition and dynamics of release of the earliest volatiles was in lack of anything better being sought from the most ancient sediments known at the time, although they were recognized to be younger than three billion years. Origin of life on Earth was considered to require a lasting atmosphere with hydrogen and methane as major components. The new observations together with theoretical studies generated by the space program and by systematic exploration of the Earth's oceanic crust changed the climate of opinion in which the questions of the primordial atmosphere are discussed. Even though existing evidence does not permit conclusive choice of any specific scenario, the acceptance of specific model elements now forces the consideration of a series of consequences, some of which may be tested by observation.

Arrhenius, G.↗