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NASA NTRS2007

Robust Design Optimization via Failure Domain Bounding

This paper extends and applies the strategies recently developed by the authors for handling constraints under uncertainty to robust design optimization. For the scope of this paper, robust optimization is a methodology aimed at problems for which some parameters are uncertain and are only known to belong to some uncertainty set. This set can be described by either a deterministic or a probabilistic model. In the methodology developed herein, optimization-based strategies are used to bound the constraint violation region using hyper-spheres and hyper-rectangles. By comparing the resulting bounding sets with any given uncertainty model, it can be determined whether the constraints are satisfied for all members of the uncertainty model (i.e., constraints are feasible) or not (i.e., constraints are infeasible). If constraints are infeasible and a probabilistic uncertainty model is available, upper bounds to the probability of constraint violation can be efficiently calculated. The tools developed enable approximating not only the set of designs that make the constraints feasible but also, when required, the set of designs for which the probability of constraint violation is below a prescribed admissible value. When constraint feasibility is possible, several design criteria can be used to shape the uncertainty model of performance metrics of interest. Worst-case, least-second-moment, and reliability-based design criteria are considered herein. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, these strategies are easily applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fermi-Based Kinetic Model for the Sabatier Reaction: Sabatier Principle and Beyond It

The CO 2 methanation reaction (aka the Sabatier reaction) is one of the important carbon utilization technologies to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases. In this study, kinetic modeling of the Sabatier reaction proceeding via the CO route has been presented by considering weak and strong chemisorption concepts rooted in electronic theory. Based on the single-route mechanism of the Sabatier reaction, the dependence of the reaction rate on the position of the catalyst Fermi level with respect to the antibonding states of the reagent (CO 2 ) and the product (CH 4 ), is demonstrated with the classic Sabatier volcano-shape. Furthermore, the model was applied to explain experimental results of reaction rates for Ni- and Ru-based catalytic systems and to understand origin of enhancement of turnover frequencies established for dynamic catalysis.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS2006

The Art and Science of Long-Range Space Weather Forecasting

Long-range space weather forecasts are akin to seasonal forecasts of terrestrial weather. We don t expect to forecast individual events but we do hope to forecast the underlying level of activity important for satellite operations and mission pl&g. Forecasting space weather conditions years or decades into the future has traditionally been based on empirical models of the solar cycle. Models for the shape of the cycle as a function of its amplitude become reliable once the amplitude is well determined - usually two to three years after minimum. Forecasting the amplitude of a cycle well before that time has been more of an art than a science - usually based on cycle statistics and trends. Recent developments in dynamo theory -the theory explaining the generation of the Sun s magnetic field and the solar activity cycle - have now produced models with predictive capabilities. Testing these models with historical sunspot cycle data indicates that these predictions may be highly reliable one, or even two, cycles into the future.

Hathaway, David H.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Modelling the impact of quasar redshift errors on the full-shape analysis of correlations in the Lyman-α forest.

In preparation for the first cosmological measurements from the full shape of the Lyman-α (Lyα) forest from DESI, we must carefully model all relevant systematics that might bias our analysis. It was shown in Youles et al. (2022) that random quasar redshift errors produce a smoothing effect on the mean quasar continuum in the Lyα forest region. This, in turn, gives rise to spurious features in the Lyα autocorrelation and its cross-correlation with quasars. Using synthetic data sets based on the DESI survey, we confirm that the impact on BAO measurements is small, but that a bias is introduced to parameters which depend on the full shape of our correlations. We combine a model of this contamination in the cross-correlation (Youles et al. 2022) with a new model we introduce here for the auto-correlation. These are parametrised by 3 parameters, which, when included in a joint fit to both correlation functions, successfully eliminate any impact of redshift errors on our full-shape constraints. We also present a strategy for removing this contamination from real data, by removing ∼0.3% of correlating pairs.

cosmology↗

NASA NTRS1999

Engineering Overview of a Multidisciplinary HSCT Design Framework Using Medium-Fidelity Analysis Codes

An objective of the HPCC Program at NASA Langley has been to promote the use of advanced computing techniques to more rapidly solve the problem of multidisciplinary optimization of a supersonic transport configuration. As a result, a software system has been designed and is being implemented to integrate a set of existing discipline analysis codes, some of them CPU-intensive, into a distributed computational framework for the design of a High Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) configuration. The proposed paper will describe the engineering aspects of integrating these analysis codes and additional interface codes into an automated design system. The objective of the design problem is to optimize the aircraft weight for given mission conditions, range, and payload requirements, subject to aerodynamic, structural, and performance constraints. The design variables include both thicknesses of structural elements and geometric parameters that define the external aircraft shape. An optimization model has been adopted that uses the multidisciplinary analysis results and the derivatives of the solution with respect to the design variables to formulate a linearized model that provides input to the CONMIN optimization code, which outputs new values for the design variables. The analysis process begins by deriving the updated geometries and grids from the baseline geometries and grids using the new values for the design variables. This free-form deformation approach provides internal FEM (finite element method) grids that are consistent with aerodynamic surface grids. The next step involves using the derived FEM and section properties in a weights process to calculate detailed weights and the center of gravity location for specified flight conditions. The weights process computes the as-built weight, weight distribution, and weight sensitivities for given aircraft configurations at various mass cases. Currently, two mass cases are considered: cruise and gross take-off weight (GTOW). Weights information is obtained from correlations of data from three sources: 1) as-built initial structural and non-structural weights from an existing database, 2) theoretical FEM structural weights and sensitivities from Genesis, and 3) empirical as-built weight increments, non-structural weights, and weight sensitivities from FLOPS. For the aeroelastic analysis, a variable-fidelity aerodynamic analysis has been adopted. This approach uses infrequent CPU-intensive non-linear CFD to calculate a non-linear correction relative to a linear aero calculation for the same aerodynamic surface at an angle of attack that results in the same configuration lift. For efficiency, this nonlinear correction is applied after each subsequent linear aero solution during the iterations between the aerodynamic and structural analyses. Convergence is achieved when the vehicle shape being used for the aerodynamic calculations is consistent with the structural deformations caused by the aerodynamic loads. To make the structural analyses more efficient, a linearized structural deformation model has been adopted, in which a single stiffness matrix can be used to solve for the deformations under all the load conditions. Using the converged aerodynamic loads, a final set of structural analyses are performed to determine the stress distributions and the buckling conditions for constraint calculation. Performance constraints are obtained by running FLOPS using drag polars that are computed using results from non-linear corrections to the linear aero code plus several codes to provide drag increments due to skin friction, wave drag, and other miscellaneous drag contributions. The status of the integration effort will be presented in the proposed paper, and results will be provided that illustrate the degree of accuracy in the linearizations that have been employed.

Weston, R. P.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Influence of Control and Limiter Schemes on Sequence-Domain Fault Models of Grid-Forming Inverter-Interfaced Distributed Generators

Unlike synchronous generators, the fault response of grid-forming (GFM) inverter-interfaced distributed generators (IIDGs) is notably governed by the selection of control and current limiting strategies rather than inherent physical traits. While recent research has focused on the sequence domain fault model of GFM IIDGs, a research gap exists in elucidating the influence of control and current limiting schemes on this model's characteristics. This article aims to fill this void by examining how different control and current limiting schemes influence the positive and negative sequence impedances in the phasor-domain fault model of GFM IIDGs. This investigation encompasses droop-based, virtual synchronous machine-based, and virtual oscillator-based reference generation controls alongside rotating and stationary reference-frame-based voltage controls. Furthermore, saturation-based, latching-based, circular and virtual impedance-based current limiting schemes are analyzed. To achieve this goal, a thorough numerical simulation study is conducted. Findings indicate that outer reference generation controls exhibit minimal impact. Conversely, the choice of voltage control and various current limiting schemes emerge as the predominant factors shaping the sequence models of GFM IIDGs. These analyses and results are instrumental in devising reliable protection strategies within inverter-based grids, as a comprehensive understanding of electrical elements in the sequence domain is imperative for effective protective measures.

current limiters↗

NASA NTRS1975

Wind tunnel investigation of the aerodynamic characteristics of five forebody models at high angles of attack at Mach numbers from 0.25 to 2

Five forebody models of various shapes were tested in the Ames 6- by 6-Foot Wind Tunnel to determine the aerodynamic characteristics at Mach numbers from 0.25 to 2 at a Reynolds number of 800000. At a Mach number of 0.6 the Reynolds number was varied from 0.4 to 1.8 mil. Angle of attack was varied from -2 deg to 88 deg at zero sideslip. The purpose of the investigation was to determine the effect of Mach number of the side force that develops at low speeds and zero sideslip for all of these forebody models when the nose is pointed. Test results show that with increasing Mach number the maximum side forces decrease to zero between Mach numbers of 0.8 and 1.5, depending on the nose angle; the smaller the nose angle of the higher the Mach number at which the side force exists. At a Mach number of 0.6 there is some variation of side force with Reynolds number, the variation being the largest for the more slender tangent ogive.

Keener, E. R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Use of North American and European Air Quality Networks to Evaluate Global Chemistry-Climate Modeling of Surface Ozone

We test the current generation of global chemistry-climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1 degree by 1 degree grid cells, allowing commensurate model-measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (approximately 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 parts per billion, and the observed seasonal range (approximately 21 parts per billion) is underestimated by about 5 parts per billion except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 parts per billion. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 percent of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 parts per billion for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.

diurnal variations↗

NASA NTRS1972

Thermal performance of 625-kg/cu m elastomeric ablative materials on spherically blunted 0.44-radian cones

Spherically blunted 0.44-radian (25 deg) half-angle conical models coated with elastomeric ablative materials were tested in supersonic arc-heated wind tunnels to evaluate performance of the ablators over a range of conditions typical of lifting entry. Four test conditions were combinations of stagnation point-heat transfer rates of 2.3 and 4.5 MW/m2 and stagnation pressures of 20 and 2kN/m2. Afterbody values of heat transfer rate and pressure were 0.05 to 0.20 of stagnation point values. Stagnation enthalpy varied from 4.4 to 25 MJ/kg (1900 to 11000 Btu/lbm) and free-stream Mach number was in a range from 3.5 to 4. Ablative materials retained the spherical nose shape throughout tests at the lower heat transfer level, but receded, assuming a flattened nose shape, during tests at the high heat transfer level. The residue layer that formed on the conical after-body was weak, friable, and extensively cracked. The reference ablative material, which contained phenolic microspheres, generally retained the conical shape on the model afterbody. However, a modified ablator, in which phenolic microspheres were replaced with silica microspheres, deformed and separated from the undegraded material, and thereby produced a very uneven surface. Substrate temperatures and ablator recession were in good agreement with values computed by a numerical analysis.

Champman, A. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Occultation Modeling for Radiation Obstruction Effects on Spacecraft Systems

A geometric occultation model has been developed to determine line-of-sight obstruction of radiation sources expected for different NASA space exploration mission designs. Example applications includes fidelity improvements for surface lighting conditions, radiation pressure, thermal and power subsystem modeling. The model makes use of geometric two dimensional shape primitives to most effectively model space vehicles. A set of these primitives is used to represent three dimensional obstructing objects as a two dimensional outline from the perspective of an observing point of interest. Radiation sources, such as the Sun or a Moon's albedo is represented as a collection of points, each of which is assigned a flux value to represent a section of the radiation source. Planetary bodies, such as a Martian moon, is represented as a collection of triangular facets which are distributed in spherical height fields for optimization. These design aspects and the overall model architecture will be presented. Specific uses to be presented includes a study of the lighting condition on Phobos for a possible future surface mission, and computing the incident flux on a spacecraft's solar panels and radiators from direct and reflected solar radiation subject to self-shadowing or shadowing by third bodies.

de Carufel, Guy↗

NASA NTRS2010

DEM Solutions Develops Answers to Modeling Lunar Dust and Regolith

With the proposed return to the Moon, scientists like NASA-KSC's Dr. Calle are concerned for a number of reasons. We will be staying longer on the planet's surface, future missions may include dust-raising activities, such as excavation and handling of lunar soil and rock, and we will be sending robotic instruments to do much of the work for us. Understanding more about the chemical and physical properties of lunar dust, how dust particles interact with each other and with equipment surfaces and the role of static electricity build-up on dust particles in the low-humidity lunar environment is imperative to the development of technologies for removing and preventing dust accumulation, and successfully handling lunar regolith. Dr. Calle is currently working on the problems of the electrostatic phenomena of granular and bulk materials as they apply to planetary surfaces, particularly to those of Mars and the Moon, and is heavily involved in developing instrumentation for future planetary missions. With this end in view, the NASA Kennedy Space Center's Innovative Partnerships Program Office partnered with OEM Solutions, Inc. OEM Solutions is a global leader in particle dynamics simulation software, providing custom solutions for use in tackling tough design and process problems related to bulk solids handling. Customers in industries such as pharmaceutical, chemical, mineral, and materials processing as well as oil and gas production, agricultural and construction, and geo-technical engineering use OEM Solutions' EDEM(TradeMark) software to improve the design and operation of their equipment while reducing development costs, time-to-market and operational risk. EDEM is the world's first general-purpose computer-aided engineering (CAE) tool to use state-of-the-art discrete element modeling technology for the simulation and analysis of particle handling and manufacturing operations. With EDEM you'can quickly and easily create a parameterized model of your granular solids system. Computer-aided design (CAD) models of real particles can be imported to obtain an accurate representation of their shape. EDEM(TradeMark) uses particle-scale behavior models to simulate bulk solids behavior. In addition to particle size and shape, the models can account for physical properties of particles along with interaction between particles and with equipment surfaces and surrounding media, as needed to define the physics of a particular process.

Dunn, Carol Anne↗

NASA NTRS1985

Numerical study of three-dimensional turbulent flow interactions between blockage models and wind tunnels including longitudinally slotted test sections

A spatial forward-marching approach is applied to compute three-dimensional turbulent flows for several blockage models in free flight, in a solid wall wind tunnel, and in a wind tunnel with longitudinal slots in the test section. The effects of area blockage in the tunnel, model growth and tunnel wall boundary layers, and of the slots are included. The large blockage models are found to have significant wall interference effects which can be reduced by the slots. The effects of the latter are confined to the region near the tunnel wall. Model/wall interference effects are not limited to the effects of area blockage; in particular, boundary layer profile shapes for a wind tunnel model in a tunnel are different from shapes for a model in free flight even when slots are used. This indicates that the flow responds differently in these two cases with the same pressure gradient.

Lin, S.-J.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Meridional Variations of C2H2 and C2H6 in Jupiter's Atmosphere from Cassini CIRS Infrared Spectra

The abundances of hydrocarbons such as acetylene (C2H2) and ethane (C2H6) in Jupiter's atmosphere are important physical quantities, constraining our models of the chemical and dynamical processes. However, our knowledge of these quantities and their vertical and latitudinal variations has remained sparse. The flyby of the Cassini spacecraft with Jupiter at the end of 2000 provided an excellent opportunity to observe the infrared spectrum with the Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) instrument, mapping the spatial variation of emissions from 10-1400 cm-1. CIRS spectra taken at the highest resolution (0.5 cm-1) in early December 2000 have been analysed to infer atmospheric temperatures in the stratosphere at 0.5-20 mbar via the v4 of CH4, and in the troposphere at 100-400 mbar, via the hydrogen collision-induced continuum absorption at 600-800 cm. Simultaneously, we have searched for meridional abundance variations in C2H2 and C2H6 via the v5 and vg bands respectively. Tropospheric absorption and stratospheric emission are highly anti-correlated at the CIM resolution, introducing a non-uniqueness into the retrievals, which means that vertical gradient and column abundance cannot be simultaneously found without additional constraints. If we assume the profile shapes from photochemical model calculations, we show that the column abundance of C2H2 must decrease sharply towards the poles, while C2H6 is constant or slightly increasing. The relevance of these results to current photochemical and dynamical knowledge of Jupiter's atmosphere is discussed.

Nixon, C. A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

A general model of the planetary radiation pressure on a satellite with a complex shape

The purpose of this paper is to present a general model for the acceleration exerted on a spacecraft by the radiation coming from a planet. Both the solar radiation reflected by the planet and the thermal emission associated with its temperature are considered. The planet albedo and the planet emissive power are expanded in spherical harmonics with respect to an equatorial reference frame attached to the planet. The satellite external surface is assumed to consist of a juxtaposition of planar surfaces. A particular choice of variables allows to reduce the surface integrals over the lit portion of the planet visible to the satellite to one-dimension integrals.

Borderies, Nicole↗

DOE OSTI2026

Introduction to and comparison of deep learning and optimization approaches to analytical wake modeling of a tilted wind turbine

This paper introduces innovative optimization and deep learning techniques to enhance the prediction of complex wake dynamics in the downstream wind velocity of tilted wind turbines. Traditional methods for calibrating the Bastankhah wake model often lead to increased errors in wind velocity distribution due to overfitting of the local wake characteristics. To address this issue, we propose an additional global optimization step to reduce errors in wind velocity predictions with respect to various wake parameters. Despite this improvement, the Bastankhah model's axisymmetric Gaussian wake shape limits its accuracy for complex wake structures. Therefore, we also propose a deep learning approach, which demonstrates promising results by accurately modeling complex wake shapes across a broader range of tilt angles with minimal computational cost. The deep learning approach achieves near-identical predictions to high-fidelity large-eddy simulations, representing a promising advancement in wake modeling.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Effects of negative triangularity on microinstabilities in a low-recycling lithium-wall spherical tokamak

In this work, we present a linear gyrokinetic study of the impact of negative triangularity (NT) on microinstabilities in the Lithium Tokamak eXperiment-β (LTX-β), a low-recycling spherical tokamak with liquid lithium plasma-facing components that produce flat electron-temperature profiles [Elliott et al., IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. 48, 1382 (2020)]. While NT is widely recognized as a stabilizing mechanism and often associated with improved confinement in conventional tokamaks, this study reveals that its effect is not universally stabilizing in the parameter regime of LTX-β and is shown to be highly sensitive to local equilibria. Using local linear simulations with the GS2 code [Kotschenreuther et al., Comput. Phys. Commun. 88, 128 (1995)] at ρ=0.3, 0.5, and 0.8 for two representative discharges (#103955 and #109355), and employing the Miller equilibrium model to isolate shaping effects, we find that NT can transition from stabilizing to destabilizing depending on magnetic shear, safety factor, and electron-temperature gradient. In shot #103955, NT reduces growth rates across radii, with strongest stabilization at the edge, whereas in shot #109355, it is stabilizing in the core but destabilizing at mid-radius and edge under experimental conditions. Parametric scans show that flattening the electron-temperature profile, increasing magnetic shear, and reducing the safety factor recover NT stabilization. These results demonstrate that NT stabilization is tunable rather than intrinsic and requires coordinated control of magnetic geometry and gradient drive.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sensitivity calibration of a Carestream HPX-1 image plate scanner

There is a need to measure the sensitivity of the image plate scanners used to scan Z shot data. The Carestream HPX-1 image plate scanner was tested, and its performance was characterized to determine the system sensitivity in terms of signal per incident photon as a function of x-ray energy. A Manson source was used to simultaneously expose an Amptek x-ray multi-channel analyzer and image plates, allowing for a comparison of the counts as a function of energy to the signal recorded on the image plates. NIST-certified radioactive sources were used to assign an absolute sensitivity. Results indicate that the HPX-1 scanner response matches the shape of the modeled response, allowing for absolute scaling using NIST-certified radioisotope sources. The HPX-1 scanner shows a stable response with measurements taken over one week. In contrast, the sensitivity of the DITABIS scanner was characterized using the same approach, but it exhibits changes in its response that varied by more than 50% over the span of 4 days.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Insights into Stress Corrosion Cracking and Dissolution of Metal Oxides

Oxide phases such as α-Fe2O3 (hematite) and α-Al2O3 (corundum) are highly insoluble in water; however, subcritical crack growth has been observed in humidity nonetheless. Chemically induced bond breaking at the crack tip appears unlikely due to sterically hindered molecular transport. The molecular mechanics of a crack in corundum with a reactive force field reveal minimal lattice trapping, leading to bond breaking before sufficient space opens for water transport. To address this, we model a pre-built blunt crack with space for H2O molecule adsorption at the tip and show that it reduces fracture toughness by lowering the critical J-integral. Then, we explore stress-enhanced dissolution to understand the mechanism of crack tip blunting in the oxide/water system. Density functional theory combined with metadynamics was employed to describe atomic dissolution from flat hematite and corundum surfaces in pure water. Strain accelerates dissolution, stabilizing intermediate states with broken bonds before full atom detachment, while the free energy profile of unstrained surfaces is almost monotonic. The atomistic calculations provided input for a kinetic model, predicting the shape evolution of a blunt crack tip, which displays three distinct regimes: (i) dissolution primarily away from the tip, (ii) enhanced blunting near but not at the apex, and (iii) sharpening near the apex. The transition between regimes occurs at a low strain, highlighting the critical role of water in the subcritical crack growth of oxide scales, with dissolution as the fundamental microscopic mechanism behind this process.

Chemistry↗