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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Failure Mode Analysis of V-Shaped Pyrotechnically Actuated Valves

Current V-shaped stainless steel pyrovalve initiators have rectified many of the deficiencies of the heritage Y-shaped aluminum design. However, a credible failure mode still exists for dual simultaneous initiator (NSI) firings in which low temperatures were detected at the booster cap and less consistent ignition was observed than when a single initiator was fired. In order to asses this issue, a numerical framework has been developed for predicting the flow through pyrotechnically actuated valves. This framework includes a fully coupled solution of the gas-phase equation with a non-equilibrium dispersed phase for solid particles as well as the capability to model conjugate gradient heat transfer to the booster cap. Through a hierarchy of increasingly complex simulations, a hypothesis for the failure mode of the nearly simultaneous dual NSI firings has been proven. The simulations indicate that the failure mode for simultaneous dual NSI firings may be caused by flow interactions between the flame channels. The shock waves from each initiator interact in the booster cavity resulting in a high pressure that prevents the gas and particulate velocity from rising in the booster cap region. This impedes the bulk of the particulate phase from impacting the booster cap and reduces the heat transfer to the booster cap since the particles do not impact it. Heat transfer calculations to the solid metal indicate that gas-phase convective heat transfer may not be adequate by itself and that energy transfer from the particulate phase may be crucial for the booster cap burn through.

Sachdev, Jai S.↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Evolution of On-Board Emergency Training for the International Space Station Crew

The crew of the International Space Station (ISS) receives extensive ground‐training in order to safely and effectively respond to any potential emergency event while on‐orbit, but few people realize that their training is not concluded when they launch into space. The evolution of the emergency On‐ Board Training events (OBTs) has recently moved from paper "scripts" to an intranet‐based software simulation that allows for the crew, as well as the flight control teams in Mission Control Centers across the world, to share in an improved and more realistic training event. This emergency OBT simulator ensures that the participants experience the training event as it unfolds, completely unaware of the type, location, or severity of the simulated emergency until the scenario begins. The crew interfaces with the simulation software via iPads that they keep with them as they translate through the ISS modules, receiving prompts and information as they proceed through the response. Personnel in the control centers bring up the simulation via an intranet browser at their console workstations, and can view additional telemetry signatures in simulated ground displays in order to assist the crew and communicate vital information to them as applicable. The Chief Training Officers and emergency instructors set the simulation in motion, choosing the type of emergency (rapid depressurization, fire, or toxic atmosphere) and specific initial conditions to emphasize the desired training objectives. Project development, testing, and implementation was a collaborative effort between ISS emergency instructors, Chief Training Officers, Flight Directors, and the Crew Office using commercial off the shelf (COTS) hardware along with simulation software created in‐house. Due to the success of the Emergency OBT simulator, the already‐developed software has been leveraged and repurposed to develop a new emulator used during fire response ground‐training to deliver data that the crew receives from the handheld Compound Specific Analyzer for Combustion Products (CSA‐CP). This CSA‐CP emulator makes use of a portion of codebase from the Emergency OBT simulator dealing with atmospheric contamination during fire scenarios, and feeds various data signatures to crew via an iPod Touch with a flight‐like CSA‐CP display. These innovative simulations, which make use of COTS hardware with custom in‐house software, have yielded drastic improvements to emergency training effectiveness and risk reduction for ISS crew and flight control teams during on‐orbit and ground training events.

LaBuff, Skyler↗
DOE OSTI2019

The Community Land Model Version 5: Description of New Features, Benchmarking, and Impact of Forcing Uncertainty

The Community Land Model (CLM) is the land component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and is used in several global and regional modeling systems. In this paper, we introduce model developments included in CLM version 5 (CLM5), which is the default land component for CESM2. We assess an ensemble of simulations, including prescribed and prognostic vegetation state, multiple forcing data sets, and CLM4, CLM4.5, and CLM5, against a range of metrics including from the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMBv2) package. CLM5 includes new and updated processes and parameterizations: (1) dynamic land units, (2) updated parameterizations and structure for hydrology and snow (spatially explicit soil depth, dry surface layer, revised groundwater scheme, revised canopy interception and canopy snow processes, updated fresh snow density, simple firn model, and Model for Scale Adaptive River Transport), (3) plant hydraulics and hydraulic redistribution, (4) revised nitrogen cycling (flexible leaf stoichiometry, leaf N optimization for photosynthesis, and carbon costs for plant nitrogen uptake), (5) global crop model with six crop types and time-evolving irrigated areas and fertilization rates, (6) updated urban building energy, (7) carbon isotopes, and (8) updated stomatal physiology. New optional features include demographically structured dynamic vegetation model (Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator), ozone damage to plants, and fire trace gas emissions coupling to the atmosphere. Conclusive establishment of improvement or degradation of individual variables or metrics is challenged by forcing uncertainty, parametric uncertainty, and model structural complexity, but the multivariate metrics presented here suggest a general broad improvement from CLM4 to CLM5.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2019

Oxy-Combustion Modeling for Direct-Fired Supercritical CO 2 Power Cycles

We report that supercritical CO 2 power cycles for fossil energy power generation will likely employ oxy-combustion at very high pressures, possibly exceeding 300 bar. At these high pressures, a direct fired oxy-combustor is more likely to behave like a rocket engine than any type of conventional gas turbine combustor. Issues such as injector design, wall heat transfer, and combustion dynamics may play a challenging role in combustor design. Computational fluid dynamics modeling will not only be useful, but may be a necessity in the combustor design process. To accurately model turbulent reacting flows, combustion submodels appropriate for the conditions of interest as defined by the turbulent time and length scales as well as chemical kinetic time scales are necessary. Here, this paper presents a comparison of various turbulence–chemistry interaction (TCI) modeling approaches on a canonical, single injector, direct-fired sCO 2 combustor. Large eddy simulation is used to model the turbulent combustion process with varying levels of injector oxygen concentration while comparing the effect of the combustion submodel on CO emissions and flame shape. While experimental data are not yet available to validate the simulations, the sensitivity of CO production and flame shape can be studied as a function of combustion modeling approach and oxygen concentration in an effort to better understand how to approach combustion modeling at these unique conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2016

Advanced Computational Methods for Thermal Radiative Heat Transfer

Participating media radiation (PMR) in weapon safety calculations for abnormal thermal environments are too costly to do routinely. This cost may be s ubstantially reduced by applying reduced order modeling (ROM) techniques. The application of ROM to PMR is a new and unique approach for this class of problems. This approach was investigated by the authors and shown to provide significant reductions in the computational expense associated with typical PMR simulations. Once this technology is migrated into production heat transfer analysis codes this capability will enable the routine use of PMR heat transfer in higher - fidelity simulations of weapon resp onse in fire environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

MASTODON Theory Manual

Multi-hazard Analysis for STOchastic time-DOmaiN phenomena (MASTODON) is a finite element application that aims at analyzing the response of 3-D soil-structure systems to natural and man-made hazards such as earthquakes, floods and fire. MASTODON currently focuses on the simulation of seismic events and has the capability to perform extensive ‘source-to-site’ simulations including earthquake fault rupture, nonlinear wave propagation and nonlinear soil-structure interaction (NLSSI) analysis. MASTODON is being developed to be a dynamic probabilistic risk assessment framework that enables analysts to not only perform deterministic analyses, but also easily perform probabilistic or stochastic simulations for the purpose of risk assessment.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1996

Computational Pollutant Environment Assessment from Propulsion-System Testing

An asymptotic plume growth method based on a time-accurate three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics formulation has been developed to assess the exhaust-plume pollutant environment from a simulated RD-170 engine hot-fire test on the F1 Test Stand at Marshall Space Flight Center. Researchers have long known that rocket-engine hot firing has the potential for forming thermal nitric oxides, as well as producing carbon monoxide when hydrocarbon fuels are used. Because of the complex physics involved, most attempts to predict the pollutant emissions from ground-based engine testing have used simplified methods, which may grossly underpredict and/or overpredict the pollutant formations in a test environment. The objective of this work has been to develop a computational fluid dynamics-based methodology that replicates the underlying test-stand flow physics to accurately and efficiently assess pollutant emissions from ground-based rocket-engine testing. A nominal RD-170 engine hot-fire test was computed, and pertinent test-stand flow physics was captured. The predicted total emission rates compared reasonably well with those of the existing hydrocarbon engine hot-firing test data.

Wang, Ten-See↗
NASA NTRS2012

Plume-Free Stream Interaction Heating Effects During Orion Crew Module Reentry

During reentry of the Orion Crew Module (CM), vehicle attitude control will be performed by firing reaction control system (RCS) thrusters. Simulation of RCS plumes and their interaction with the oncoming flow has been difficult for the analysis community due to the large scarf angles of the RCS thrusters and the unsteady nature of the Orion capsule backshell environments. The model for the aerothermal database has thus relied on wind tunnel test data to capture the heating effects of thruster plume interactions with the freestream. These data are only valid for the continuum flow regime of the reentry trajectory. A Direct Simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) analysis was performed to study the vehicle heating effects that result from the RCS thruster plume interaction with the oncoming freestream flow at high altitudes during Orion CM reentry. The study was performed with the DSMC Analysis Code (DAC). The inflow boundary conditions for the jets were obtained from Data Parallel Line Relaxation (DPLR) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) solutions. Simulations were performed for the roll, yaw, pitch-up and pitch-down jets at altitudes of 105 km, 125 km and 160 km as well as vacuum conditions. For comparison purposes (see Figure 1), the freestream conditions were based on previous DAC simulations performed without active RCS to populate the aerodynamic database for the Orion CM. Other inputs to the analysis included a constant Orbital reentry velocity of 7.5 km/s and angle of attack of 160 degrees. The results of the study showed that the interaction effects decrease quickly with increasing altitude. Also, jets with highly scarfed nozzles cause more severe heating compared to the nozzles with lower scarf angles. The difficulty of performing these simulations was based on the maximum number density and the ratio of number densities between the freestream and the plume for each simulation. The lowest altitude solutions required a substantial amount of computational resources (up to 1800 processors) to simulate approximately 2 billion molecules for the refined (adapted) solutions.

Marichalar, J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Vehicle-Level Oxygen/Methane Propulsion System Hotfire Testing at Thermal Vacuum Conditions

A prototype integrated liquid oxygen/liquid methane propulsion system was hot-fire tested at a variety of simulated altitude and thermal conditions in the NASA Glenn Research Center Plum Brook Station In-Space Propulsion Thermal Vacuum Chamber (formerly B2). This test campaign served two purposes: 1) Characterize the performance of the Plum Brook facility in vacuum accumulator mode and 2) Collect the unique data set of an integrated LOX/Methane propulsion system operating in high altitude and thermal vacuum environments (a first). Data from this propulsion system prototype could inform the design of future spacecraft in-space propulsion systems, including landers. The test vehicle for this campaign was the Integrated Cryogenic Propulsion Test Article (ICPTA), which was constructed for this project using assets from the former Morpheus Project rebuilt and outfitted with additional new hardware. The ICPTA utilizes one 2,800 lbf main engine, two 28 lbf and two 7 lbf reaction control engines mounted in two pods, four 48-inch propellant tanks (two each for liquid oxygen and liquid methane), and a cold helium system for propellant tank pressurization. Several hundred sensors on the ICPTA and many more in the test cell collected data to characterize the operation of the vehicle and facility. Multiple notable experiments were performed during this test campaign, many for the first time, including pressure-fed cryogenic reaction control system characterization over a wide range of conditions, coil-on-plug ignition system demonstration at the vehicle level, integrated main engine/RCS operation, and a non-intrusive propellant mass gauging system. The test data includes water-hammer and thermal heat leak data critical to validating models for use in future vehicle design activities. This successful test campaign demonstrated the performance of the updated Plum Brook In-Space Propulsion thermal vacuum chamber and incrementally advanced the state of LOX/Methane propulsion technology through numerous system-level and subsystem experiments.

Morehead, Robert L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-situ Lunar Launch and Landing Pad Construction with Regolith-Thermoset Polymer Composite Materials

Lunar launch and landing pads are necessary to mitigate risks to lander/ascent vehicles and surrounding surface assets from rocket plume ejected regolith. The current state of the art of landing and launching from the lunar surface is to land/launch on unprepared regolith surfaces. Though this has been a relatively successful approach, significant risks exist for the Artemis Program due to higher thrust levels leading to increased ejecta and cratering, presence of co-located assets in the ejecta path, and potential strict surface levelness requirements. Regolith-thermoset polymer composite materials were developed and evaluated for off Earth launch and landing pad applications. Performance under hot fire conditions was assessed for two simulated Starship lunar launch/landing environments, one targeting thermal conditions and the second targeting pressure conditions. Paver test articles were prepared at 20% and 11% polymer mass fractions. Sintered paver test articles were prepared with 20% polymer grouting filling the seams between pavers. Though significant erosion was experienced during the more extreme thermal testing conditions, all test articles successfully mitigated regolith ejecta from plume effects. A concept for preparing and emplacing the materials was developed and tested in laboratory conditions. The testing evaluated the feasibility of using twin and single screw extruder technology to mix, convey and deposit materials. Both the twin and single screw extruders were capable of processing and extruding the composite with a maximum of 90% mass fraction of regolith achieved by the twin screw extruder.A primary risk for application of regolith-thermoset polymer composites as lunar launch/landingpad is the mass of polymer required to be landed on the moon. Calculations were performed that show that a 100 m diameter, 0.025 m thick pad with polymer mass fraction of 15% will require a payload mass of 72 mt to the Lunar surface. This is below the planned Starship payload capacity to the lunar surface of 100 mt. The regolith-thermoset polymer composite based construction approach proved feasibility in three critical areas: performance under launch/landing conditions, demonstration of a mixing and depositing strategy, and fitting within the planned lunar payload capacity. It is recommended that materials and systems be developed to TRL 6 for a small-scale lunar demonstration of emplacement of a launch/landing pad via a CLPS mission to support Artemis Program roadmap gap closure activities.

ISRU↗
NASA NTRS2004

Fire Suppression in Low Gravity Using a Cup Burner

Longer duration missions to the moon, to Mars, and on the International Space Station increase the likelihood of accidental fires. The goal of the present investigation is to: (1) understand the physical and chemical processes of fire suppression in various gravity and O2 levels simulating spacecraft, Mars, and moon missions; (2) provide rigorous testing of numerical models, which include detailed combustion suppression chemistry and radiation sub-models; and (3) provide basic research results useful for advances in space fire safety technology, including new fire-extinguishing agents and approaches. The structure and extinguishment of enclosed, laminar, methane-air co-flow diffusion flames formed on a cup burner have been studied experimentally and numerically using various fire-extinguishing agents (CO2, N2, He, Ar, CF3H, and Fe(CO)5). The experiments involve both 1g laboratory testing and low-g testing (in drop towers and the KC-135 aircraft). The computation uses a direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry and radiative heat-loss models. An agent was introduced into a low-speed coflowing oxidizing stream until extinguishment occurred under a fixed minimal fuel velocity, and thus, the extinguishing agent concentrations were determined. The extinguishment of cup-burner flames, which resemble real fires, occurred via a blowoff process (in which the flame base drifted downstream) rather than the global extinction phenomenon typical of counterflow diffusion flames. The computation revealed that the peak reactivity spot (the reaction kernel) formed in the flame base was responsible for attachment and blowoff of the trailing diffusion flame. Furthermore, the buoyancy-induced flame flickering in 1g and thermal and transport properties of the agents affected the flame extinguishment limits.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗
NASA NTRS2004

Fire Suppression in Low Gravity Using a Cup Burner

Longer duration missions to the moon, to Mars, and on the International Space Station increase the likelihood of accidental fires. The goal of the present investigation is to: (1) understand the physical and chemical processes of fire suppression in various gravity and O2 levels simulating spacecraft, Mars, and moon missions; (2) provide rigorous testing of numerical models, which include detailed combustion-suppression chemistry and radiation sub-models; and (3) provide basic research results useful for advances in space fire safety technology, including new fire-extinguishing agents and approaches.The structure and extinguishment of enclosed, laminar, methane-air co-flow diffusion flames formed on a cup burner have been studied experimentally and numerically using various fire-extinguishing agents (CO2, N2, He, Ar, CF3H, and Fe(CO)5). The experiments involve both 1g laboratory testing and low-g testing (in drop towers and the KC-135 aircraft). The computation uses a direct numerical simulation with detailed chemistry and radiative heat-loss models. An agent was introduced into a low-speed coflowing oxidizing stream until extinguishment occurred under a fixed minimal fuel velocity, and thus, the extinguishing agent concentrations were determined. The extinguishment of cup-burner flames, which resemble real fires, occurred via a blowoff process (in which the flame base drifted downstream) rather than the global extinction phenomenon typical of counterflow diffusion flames. The computation revealed that the peak reactivity spot (the reaction kernel) formed in the flame base was responsible for attachment and blowoff of the trailing diffusion flame. Furthermore, the buoyancy-induced flame flickering in 1g and thermal and transport properties of the agents affected the flame extinguishment limits.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗
NASA NTRS1991

A distributed Petri Net controller for a dual arm testbed

This thesis describes the design and functionality of a Distributed Petri Net Controller (DPNC). The controller runs under X Windows to provide a graphical interface. The DPNC allows users to distribute a Petri Net across several host computers linked together via a TCP/IP interface. A sub-net executes on each host, interacting with the other sub-nets by passing a token vector from host to host. One host has a command window which monitors and controls the distributed controller. The input to the DPNC is a net definition file generated by Great SPN. Thus, a net may be designed, analyzed and verified using this package before implementation. The net is distributed to the hosts by tagging transitions that are host-critical with the appropriate host number. The controller will then distribute the remaining places and transitions to the hosts by generating the local nets, the local marking vectors and the global marking vector. Each transition can have one or more preconditions which must be fulfilled before the transition can fire, as well as one or more post-processes to be executed after the transition fires. These implement the actual input/output to the environment (machines, signals, etc.). The DPNC may also be used to simulate a Great SPN net since stochastic and deterministic firing rates are implemented in the controller for timed transitions.

Bjanes, Atle↗
DOE OSTI2018

Fluid–Solid Coupling Simulation on the Temperature Distribution of Tuyere Used for Oxygen Bottom Blowing Converter

For an oxygen bottom blowing converter, a high-temperature fire spot zone forms above the tuyere owing to oxygen reaction. The bottom blowing tuyere and surrounding brick are simultaneously heated by high-temperature fire spot and flowing molten steel. High-speed fluids flowing in the inner tube and the annular gap of the tuyere can remove part of the heat transferred from the fire spot zone and molten steel, playing a vital role in cooling the tuyere. To determine the temperature distributions of the tuyere and surrounding brick under the condition of oxygen bottom blowing, a fluid–solid coupling heat transfer numerical model that considers both the radiation of the fire spot and convection of the molten steel was established in this study. The simulation results agree well with previous experimental results; thus, the numerical model was validated. Utilizing the validated model, the influences of the tuyere inner tube material and fire spot zone temperature on the tuyere temperature distribution were studied in detail. Along with an increase in the material thermal conductivity, the maximum temperature of the inner tube at the hot face decreased, verifying the superiority of copper as the inner tube. More importantly, it was found that reducing the fire spot zone temperature by mixing CO{sub 2} in the bottom blowing oxygen fundamentally alleviated the burning loss of the tuyere and the surrounding brick.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Future Fire Impacts on Smoke Concentrations, Visibility, and Health in the Contiguous United States

Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from U.S. anthropogenic sources is decreasing. However, previous studies have predicted that PM2.5 emissions from wildfires will increase in the midcentury to next century, potentially offsetting improvements gained by continued reductions in anthropogenic emissions. Therefore, some regions could experience worse air quality, degraded visibility, and increases in population-level exposure. We use global climate model simulations to estimate the impacts of changing fire emissions on air quality, visibility, and premature deaths in the middle and late 21st century. We find that PM2.5 concentrations will decrease overall in the contiguous United States (CONUS) due to decreasing anthropogenic emissions (total PM2.5 decreases by 3% in Representative Concentration Pathway [RCP] 8.5 and 34% in RCP4.5 by 2100), but increasing fire-related PM2.5 (fire-related PM2.5 increases by 55% in RCP4.5 and 190% in RCP8.5 by 2100) offsets these benefits and causes increases in total PM2.5 in some regions. We predict that the average visibility will improve across the CONUS, but fire-related PM2.5 will reduce visibility on the worst days in western and southeastern U.S. regions. We estimate that the number of deaths attributable to total PM2.5 will decrease in both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (from 6% to 4–5%), but the absolute number of premature deaths attributable to fire-related PM2.5 will double compared to early 21st century. We provide the first estimates of future smoke health and visibility impacts using a prognostic land-fire model. Our results suggest the importance of using realistic fire emissions in future air quality projections.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2016

HRSSA – Efficient hybrid stochastic simulation for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks

This paper introduces HRSSA (Hybrid Rejection-based Stochastic Simulation Algorithm), a new efficient hybrid stochastic simulation algorithm for spatially homogeneous biochemical reaction networks. HRSSA is built on top of RSSA, an exact stochastic simulation algorithm which relies on propensity bounds to select next reaction firings and to reduce the average number of reaction propensity updates needed during the simulation. HRSSA exploits the computational advantage of propensity bounds to manage time-varying transition propensities and to apply dynamic partitioning of reactions, which constitute the two most significant bottlenecks of hybrid simulation. A comprehensive set of simulation benchmarks is provided for evaluating performance and accuracy of HRSSA against other state of the art algorithms.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

An Observation-Driven Framework for Modeling Post-Fire Hydrologic Response: Evaluation for Two Central California Case Studies

In a warming climate, wildfires are becoming increasingly common, especially in semi-arid environments. Wildfires can disrupt forest ecosystems and induce changes to the land surface. Collectively, these impacts can alter the hydrologic response of a catchment following a fire, resulting in increased potential for surface runoff, reduced evapotranspiration, and, ultimately, a higher risk for flash flooding and mass wasting. The timescale for post-fire recovery of hydrological processes to return to pre-fire conditions is not well established due to the lack of ground measurements. Accurate characterization of fire impacts on hydrologic response is also challenging to simulate, given the complex interplay of various processes. Here, we present a generalized framework to quantify wildfire impacts on runoff generation. We consider the vegetation and soil disturbances as the primary contributors to post-fire floods. Using an ensemble modeling structure to account for parameter uncertainty and consider model sensitivity, remotely sensed leaf area index (LAI) is assimilated into a land surface model (LSM) to simulate vegetation disturbance, and the maximum land surface saturation LSM parameter is decreased to parameterize the soil disturbance following observed fires. We evaluated the impacts of fire-induced changes to LAI and soil saturation on hydrologic states like runoff and evapotranspiration. Analysis of two events in central California shows that 1) the LAI assimilation has a greater impact on water balance; and 2) the soil scheme captures a range of outcomes, with substantial impacts on surface runoff for some ensemble members, which could affect flood potential.

Timothy M Lahmers↗
NASA NTRS2019

Importance of Tree- and Species-Level Interactions With Wildfire, Climate, and Soils in Interior Alaska: Implications for Forest Change Under A Warming Climate

The boreal zone of Alaska is dominated by interactions between disturbances, vegetation, and soils. These interactions are likely to change in the future through increasing permafrost thaw, more frequent and intense wildfires, and vegetation change from drought and competition. We utilize an individual tree-based vegetation model, the University of Virginia Forest Model Enhanced (UVAFME), to estimate current and future forest conditions across sites within interior Alaska. We updated UVAFME for application within interior Alaska, including improved simulation of permafrost dynamics, litter decay, nutrient dynamics, fire mortality, and post-fire regrowth. Following these updates, UVAFME output on species-specific biomass and stem density was comparable to inventory measurements at various forest types within interior Alaska. We then simulated forest response to climate change at specific inventory locations and across the Tanana Valley River Basin on a 2 × 2 km2 grid. We derived projected temperature and precipitation from a five-model average taken from the CMIP5 archive under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Results suggest that climate change and the concomitant impacts on wildfire and permafrost dynamics will result in overall decreases in biomass (particularly for spruce (Picea spp.)) within the interior Tanana Valley, despite increases in quaking aspen (Populus tremuloides) biomass, and a resulting shift towards higher deciduous fraction. Simulation results also predict increases in biomass at cold, wet locations and at high elevations, and decreases in biomass in dry locations, under both moderate (RCP 4.5) and extreme (RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios. These simulations demonstrate that a highly detailed, species interactive model can be used across a large region within Alaska to investigate interactions between vegetation, climate, wildfire, and permafrost. The vegetation changes predicted here have the capacity to feed back to broader scale climate-forest interactions in the North American boreal forest, a region which contributes significantly to the global carbon and energy budgets.

forest modeling↗