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At least 433 records · Page 24

Precipitation Characteristics and Future Changes Over the Southern Slope of Tibetan Plateau Simulated by a High-Resolution Global Nonhydrostatic Model

Current climate model resolution cannot accurately describe the complex topography over the Tibetan Plateau, which limits our understanding of past and future precipitation over this region. This study investigates the daily precipitation characteristics and its future changes over the Tibetan Plateau, especially for the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (SSTP), by 14-km Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model (NICAM) with explicitly calculated convection for historical and future 30-years period. By comparing with the satellite Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM), NICAM well reproduces the historical precipitation spatial pattern, seasonal cycle, and the extreme precipitation belt over SSTP, but overestimates precipitation amount by~35%. It is found that heavy precipitation probability decreases as elevation becomes higher while the light precipitation generally shows the opposite. For the precipitation changes during June to September from 1979–2008 to 2075–2104, NICAM predicts that mean precipitation will decrease over low-level SSTP but increase over high-level SSTP. Nonprecipitation and heavy precipitation probability will increase while light precipitation probability will decrease in the future over SSTP. The extreme precipitation probability and intensity will increase ~50%/°C and ~8%/°C over SSTP, and this increase is more obvious as elevation becomes higher. The robust increase of extreme precipitation along the SSTP topography is unique and has not been identified by the climate model simulations before. The strong meridional gradient of specific humidity over SSTP is found to be further enhanced under global warming, and this gradient enhancement is suggested to be responsible for the increase in the extreme precipitation over SSTP.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Deciphering the R Ψ m correlator in search for the chiral magnetic effect in relativistic heavy ion collisions

The chiral magnetic effect (CME) is extensively studied in heavy-ion collisions at the BNL Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider (RHIC) and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). An azimuthal correlator called R Ψ m was proposed to measure the CME. By observing the same R Ψ 2 and R Ψ 3 (convex) distributions from A Multi-Phase Transport (ampt) model, by contrasting data and model as well as large and small systems and by event shape engineering (ESE), a recent preprint (arXiv:2006.04251v1) from STAR suggests that the R Ψ m observable is sensitive to the CME signal and relatively insensitive to backgrounds, and their Au + Au data are inconsistent with known background contributions. Our ampt results contradict those from a recent preprint by STAR. Our toy model simulations demonstrate that R Ψ 2 is sensitive to both the CME signal and physics backgrounds. Toy model simulations of isobar collisions show similar centrality dependence and magnitudes for the relative R Ψ 2 strengths as well as the relative Δ γ strengths. We conclude that R Ψ 2 and the inclusive Δ γ are essentially the same.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A reduced-model (nSOLT) simulation of neutral recycling effects on plasma turbulence in the divertor region of MAST-U

The 2D scrape-off-layer turbulence code (nSOLT), which includes 1D kinetic neutral–plasma interactions, is applied to study effects of neutral recycling on plasma turbulence for parameters illustrative of the MAST-U divertor region. Neutral recycling is modeled by injecting a fraction of the parallel plasma flux to the divertor back into the simulation domain as a source of Franck–Condon-distributed neutrals. Stationary sources, concentrated at the magnetic separatrix, model plasma streaming into the divertor region from the upstream scrape-off-layer and sustain plasma turbulence absent neutral recycling. Starting from one such no-neutrals equilibrium, we initiate recycling in a numerical experiment designed to diagnose and identify the effects of various neutral–plasma interactions on the divertor plasma, divertor turbulence, and plasma exhaust. The onset of recycling triggers an initial burst of enhanced cross field plasma transport that is quelled by ionization cooling and charge–exchange (CX) friction, with growing neutral pressure, leading to a quiescent, turbulence-free state. Diagnosis of this transient burst reveals that (1) the sudden increase in plasma density due to ionization dominates the onset of the burst, (2) electron cooling due to ionization increases collisionality and disconnects blob filaments from the sheath, and (3) CX friction drives tripole polarization of a blob that can dominate the curvature-driven dipole polarization, leading to the stagnation of blob propagation and reduced radial turbulent transport. It is shown that CX friction is negligible compared to sheath physics in determining equilibrium mean flow shearing rates, for parameters considered herein (specifically a short connection length to the divertor target), while it can significantly reduce interchange-instability growth rates.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DEPLOYING FAST CHARGING INFRASTRUCTURE FOR ELECTRIC VEHICLES IN URBAN NETWORKS: AN ACTIVITY-BASED APPROACH

This paper explores an important problem under the domain of network modeling, the optimal configuration of charging infrastructure for electric vehicles (EVs) in urban networks considering EV users' daily activities and charging behavior. This study proposes a charging behavior simulation model considering different initial state of charge (SOC), travel distance, availability of home chargers, and the daily schedule of trips for each traveler. The proposed charging behavior simulation model examines the complete chain of trips for EV users as well as the interdependency of trips traveled by each driver. The problem of finding the optimum charging configuration is then formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear programming problem that considers the dynamics of travel time and travel distance, the interdependency of trips made by each driver, limited range of EVs, remaining battery capacity for recharging, waiting time in queue, and detour to access a charging station. This problem is solved using a metaheuristic approach for a large-scale case network. A series of examples are presented to demonstrate the model efficacy and explore the impact of energy consumption on the final SOC and the optimum charging infrastructure.

Chain of Trips↗

Predicting Deformation of Parts from HP Printers due to Sintering with Modeling and Simulation (CRADA NFE-18-07363)

This work proposes to leverage Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) sintering simulation software developed at the Manufacturing Demonstration Facility to 1) investigate the deformation of sintered parts and 2) to develop fast surrogate-based optimization methods for HP Inc. This includes the development of ORNL’s software on HP systems, integration and testing with HP part geometries and material properties, the development of surrogate models based on the results of the simulation, and modifications to the software based on feedback from HP. The expected impacts of this work are a drastic reduction in print costs, an increase in printer throughput, and the identification of novel, possibly exotic materials for 3D printing. This work will also decrease the time to market for HP’s print technology by decreasing the amount of resources and type dedicated to physical testing.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Modeling and simulation of earthquake soil structure interaction excited by inclined seismic waves

Presented is an application of wave potential formulation (WPF) together with domain reduction method (DRM) to modeling earthquake soil structure interaction (ESSI) behavior in horizontally layered ground under inclined incident seismic waves. Wave potential formulation is used to develop a spatially varying, inclined seismic wave field from incident Primary (P) and Secondary (S) waves that propagate through layered ground. Developed seismic wave field is then used to develop effective forces for Domain Reduction Method that are then used for analyzing ESSI response of a soil structure system. Developed methodology, called WPF-DRM, is verified using analytic solution for a free field response of layered ground subjected to inclined incident waves. Developed WPF-DRM methodology is illustrated through analysis of an ESSI response of a deeply embedded structure, a small modular reactor (SMR) subjected to incident S wave polarized in vertical plane (SV) with variation in inclinations and frequencies. Presented example highlights the influences of incident wave inclination and frequency on ESSI response of analyzed SMR.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

First Estimation of Model Parameters for Neutrino-Induced Nucleon Knockout Using Simulation-Based Inference

To enable an accurate determination of oscillation parameters, accelerator-based neutrino experiments require detailed simulations of nuclear interaction physics in the GeV regime. While substantial effort from both theory and experiment is currently being invested to improve the fidelity of these simulations, their present deficiencies typically oblige experimental collaborations to resort to empirical tuning of simulation model parameters. As the precision requirements of the field continue to become more stringent, machine learning techniques may provide a powerful means of handling corresponding growth in the complexity of future neutrino interaction model tuning exercises. To study the suitability of simulation-based inference (SBI) for this physics application, in this paper we revisit a tuned configuration of the GENIE neutrino event generator that was originally developed by the MicroBooNE collaboration. Despite closely reproducing the adopted values of four physics parameters when confronted with the tuned cross-section predictions as input, we find that our trained SBI algorithm prefers modestly different values (within MicroBooNE's assigned uncertainties) and achieves slightly better goodness-of-fit when inference is run on the experimental data set originally used by MicroBooNE. We also find that our trained algorithm can create a fair approximation of an alternative neutrino scattering simulation, NuWro, that shares only a subset of its physics model parameters with GENIE.

Tame-Narvaez, Karla [Fermilab] (ORCID:000000022249↗

Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage

The project Geologic Characterization of the South Georgia Rift Basin for Source Proximal CO2 Storage is one of 9 site characterization projects that were implemented as part of ARRA (American Recovery and Reinvestment Act). Data from this project was used to improve resolution of data in NATCARB in the area of study. Data related to this study has already been incorporated in NATCARB Atlas. The South Carolina Research Foundation and partners evaluated the feasibility of CCS in the Jurassic/ Triassic (J / TR) saline formations of the buried Mesozoic South Georgia Rift (SGR) Basin that extends from South Carolina into Georgia. The J / TR sequence, based on preliminary assessment of limited geologic and geophysical data, appears to have both the appropriate areal extent and multiple horizons to permanently and safely store CO2 The presence of several igneous rock layers within the sequence may potentially provide adequate seals to prevent upward CO2 migration into the Coastal Plain aquifer systems. Approximately 81 kilometers of 2-D seismic reflection data were collected by Bay Geophysical, Inc. to explore a portion of the SGR located in southern Georgia. The 81 kilometers were divided into two lines approximately 40.5 kilometers each, with Line 1 intersecting Georgia well GGS 3457. Line 2 intersects Line 1 at the southern portion of Line 1 to maximize the extent of coverage away from GGS-3457 (a deep well drilled in the 1980s for oil and gas exploration). This well had a set of usable logs, including gamma and neutron logs that provided promising results related to CO2 storage. Results showed sandstone with porosity values greater than 10 percent and a thickness of 120 meters. The design of the seismic shot was to extrapolate information away from the well and to better define the extent of the SGR and the necessary reservoir and caprock for a successful CO2 injection. A numerical simulation model of CO2 Injection and migration was developed based on the geology log for the GGS-3457 well. The simulation model was used to investigate the feasibility of injecting 30 million metric tons of CO2 into SGR J / TA sediments and integrity of the diabase layers as seals to prevent CO2 migration.

2-D seismic↗

Life Cycle of Major Sudden Stratospheric Warmings in the Southern Hemisphere from a Multimillennial GCM Simulation

Abstract Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are rare in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), making it difficult to study possible precursors or subsequent impacts. Using a multimillennial coupled climate model simulation producing 161 SSWs in the SH, we present a detailed study of their life cycle. We show that SH SSWs are predominantly displacement events forced by wave-1 planetary waves, and that a surface signature similar to the negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is detectable up to two months before the onset date, but there is a tendency for a transition from wave 1 before to zonally symmetric anomalies after onset. We identify a strong weakening of the Amundsen Sea low as one of the most prominent precursors, which weakens the climatological wave-2 and wave-3 stationary waves and strengthens wave-1 forcing. Compared to their northern counterparts, SH SSWs generally have a longer time scale, and while there is evidence of pre-onset forcing related to tropical sea surface temperatures, the Indian Ocean dipole is more important than El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Significance Statement Sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events where the winter polar stratosphere warms within a few days to temperatures usually only experienced in summer. These events are rare in the Southern Hemisphere. Therefore, both the observational record and standard climate model simulations are not enough to understand how SSWs develop, or how they might change surface weather. Here we use very long global climate simulations that produce a large number of SSWs in the Southern Hemisphere to study the development and impact of these events. This includes possible precursors as well as the influence they have on surface weather after they occur.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Modeling and simulation of multiphase flows

This presentation provides an overview of the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) multiphase computational fluid dynamics codes. The highly successful Multiphase Flows with Interphase eXchanges (MFIX) suite has been used to model a wide range of applications including post-combustion carbon capture, bioreactor optimization, and bio-FCC regeneration. MFIX-Exa, a state-of-the-art CFD code, developed under DOE’s Exascale Computing Project, is built on the AMReX software framework (https://amrex-codes.github.io/) and is designed to leverage modern accelerator-based compute architectures. This presentation further reviews the underlying physical models of both MFIX and MFIX-Exa and contrasts their similarities and differences. Examples of past and present CFD simulations will illustrate how scientific computing at NETL is being used not only for scientific exploration but also for design, optimization and scale-up of multiphase flow devices.

Musser, Jordan [NETL]↗

The Effect of Air Separations on Fast Pyrolysis Products for Forest Residue Feedstocks

This study investigates the intricate relationship between biomass preprocessing and pyrolysis product yields, employing the air classification technique for the treatment of loblolly pine residues with varying moisture content. A comprehensive exploration of the physicochemical properties of air-classified loblolly pine informs a sophisticated pyrolysis simulation model. Given the complex and multifaceted nature of biomass pyrolysis, operating across diverse temporal and spatial scales, a pyrolysis kinetics-based CFD–DEM simulation method is employed to predict product yields. Results showed that the elevated moisture content amplifies particle adhesiveness, necessitating augmented air velocities for effective separation, thereby influencing the efficiency of the separation process. While carbon and hydrogen contents exhibit relative stability across diverse moisture contents and blower frequencies, the oxygen content undergoes noticeable changes. For example, the oxygen contents were measured as 29.2 and 38.6 wt% in the light fraction of 30% moisture content sample at blower frequencies of 10 and 20 Hz, respectively. An intriguing finding emerges from pyrolysis simulation, indicating that a lower blower frequency in air classification moderately enhances bio-oil yield and significantly improves its quality, particularly in terms of water content. For instance, the water content in the bio-oil was about 1.5% and 10% in the heavy and light fractions, respectively from 10% moisture sample under 15 Hz blower frequency. In summary, a detailed understanding and strategic manipulation of critical material attributes in biomass through efficient fractionation techniques are imperative for advancing fast pyrolysis as a sustainable avenue for renewable energy and chemical production.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Bayesian analysis of (3 +1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics with the RHIC beam energy scan data

This work presents a Bayesian inference study for relativistic heavy-ion collisions in the beam energy scan program at the BNL Relativistic Heavy-Ion Collider. The theoretical model simulates event-by-event (3+1)-dimensional [(3+1)⁢D] collision dynamics using hydrodynamics and hadronic transport theory. We analyze the model's 20-dimensional posterior distributions obtained using three model emulators with different accuracy and demonstrate the essential role of training an accurate model emulator in the Bayesian analysis. Our analysis provides robust constraints on the quark-gluon plasma's transport properties and various aspects of (3+1)⁢D relativistic nuclear dynamics. By running full model simulations with 100 parameter sets sampled from the posterior distribution, we make predictions for p T -differential observables and estimate their systematic theory uncertainty. Here, a sensitivity analysis is performed to elucidate how individual experimental observables respond to different model parameters, providing useful physics insights into the phenomenological model for heavy-ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Deep operator network surrogate for phase-field modeling of metal grain growth during solidification

A deep operator network (DeepONet) has been constructed that generates accurate representations of phase-field model simulations for evolving two dimensional metal grain morphology growing from melt. These representations serve as lower resolution, computationally efficient stand-ins for quick parameter space exploration of solutions to the the Allen-Cahn equations that dictate the phase-field model simulations. The experimental target for the phase-field model is a uranium casting system cooling a 434 g uranium charge from a maximum temperature of 1400° C at an average rate of 30° C / min , traversing the crystallographic phases of the pure metal. Experimental parameters inform the phase-field model, whose higher resolution computational model solutions are used to train the DeepONet in a given parameter space with the aim of developing a faster, more efficient method for predicting the solidifying metal's microstructure at different potential experimental values. The final DeepONet generates high accuracy, lower resolution predictions with cumulative relative approximation error over all timesteps of less than 0.5%, while ensuring solutions remain within physically feasible ranges. Further, these relative error values are comparable with other state-of-the-art DeepONet models for microstructure evolution, while significantly reducing the amount of training data required. Training a convolutional neural network simultaneously with the DeepONet, enforcing realistic values at the complex metal grain boundaries, and mathematically encoding boundary conditions into the structure of the DeepONet improved prediction accuracy and computational efficiency over a standard DeepONet model.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DSO+T: Integrated System Simulation (DSO+T Study: Volume 2)

This report summarizes an integrated co-simulation model used by the Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study to represent an electrical generation, delivery, and end-load systems for the purposes of assessing the viability and value proposition of transactive energy coordination of flexible assets versus a business-as-usual case. The integrated co-simulation model includes the bulk generation and transmission system, including the day-ahead and real-time scheduling and dispatch of thermal generators. Forty distribution system operators were modelled in detail, including tens of thousands of residential and commercial buildings and their flexible end-loads. These included HVAC systems, residential water heaters, electric vehicles, and stationary, behind-the-meter, batteries. Both wholesale market and end-load results for the business-as-usual case are presented and compared to actual ERCOT system data to assess the accuracy and representativeness of the resulting model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Near-field models and simulations of pellet ablation in tokamaks

Here, detailed numerical studies of the ablation of a single neon pellet in the plasma disruption mitigation parameter space have been performed. Simulations were carried out using FronTier, a hydrodynamic/low magnetic Reynolds number MHD code with explicit tracking of material interfaces. FronTier's physics models resolve the pellet surface ablation and the formation of a dense, cold cloud of ablated material, the deposition of energy from hot plasma electrons, the expansion of the ablation cloud along magnetic field lines, and the radiation losses. A local thermodynamic equilibrium model based on Saha equations has been used to resolve atomic processes in the cloud and Redlich–Kwong corrections to the ideal gas equation of state for cold and dense gases, which have been used near the pellet surface. The FronTier pellet code is a next generation of the code described. It has been validated against the semi-analytic improved neutral gas shielding model in the 1D spherically symmetric approximation. Main results include quantification of the influence of atomic processes and Redlich–Kwong corrections on the pellet ablation in spherically symmetric approximation and verification of analytic scaling laws in a broad range of pellet and plasma parameters. Using axially symmetric MHD simulations, the properties of ablation channels and the reduction of pellet ablation rates in magnetic fields of increasing strength have been studied. While the main emphasis has been given to neon pellets for the plasma disruption mitigation, selected results on deuterium fueling pellets have also been presented.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Simulation-Based Model for Facility-Scale Eagle Presence Mapping

This talk presents the recent progress in building a predictive movement model for predicting conflict between soaring raptors and wind turbines. In particular, it details the recently developed numerical tool called Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator for simulating updraft-subsidized paths for soaring raptors through variety of wind conditions and the associated directional intent.

agent-based model↗

The root-zone soil moisture spectrum in a mediterranean ecosystem

Storage of water within soil pores of the root zone introduce memory effects in the dynamics of soil moisture that are considerably longer than the integral timescale of many atmospheric processes. Thus, hydro-climatic states can be “sustained” through land-surface heat and water vapor fluxes primarily because they can “feed off” on this long-term soil moisture memory. Root-zone soil moisture memory is only but one feature characterizing the spectrum of soil moisture dynamics, which is analyzed here using a combination of long-term measurements and models. In particular, the spectrum of root-zone soil moisture content in a Mediterranean ecosystem is examined using 14-years of half-hourly measurements. A distinguishing hydro-climatic feature in such ecosystems is that sources (mainly rainfall) and sinks (mainly evapotranspiration) of soil moisture are roughly out of phase with each other. For over 4 decades of time scales and 7 decades of energy, the canonical shape of the measured soil moisture spectrum is shown to be approximately Lorentzian determined by the soil moisture variance and its memory but with two exceptions: the occurrences of a peak at diurnal-to-daily time scales and a weaker peak at near annual time scales. Model calculations and spectral analysis demonstrate that diurnal and seasonal variations in hydroclimate forcing responsible for variability in evapotranspiration had minor impact on the normalized shape of the soil moisture spectrum. However, their impact was captured by adjustments in the temporal variance. These findings indicate that precipitation and not evapotranspiration variability dominates the multi-scaling properties of soil moisture variability consistent with prior climate model simulations. Furthermore, the soil moisture memory inferred by the annual peak of soil moisture (340 d) is consistent with climate model simulations, while the memory evaluated from the loss function of a linearized mass balance approach leads to a smaller value (50 d), highlighting the effect of weak non-stationarity on soil moisture variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How sheath properties change with gas pressure: modeling and simulation

Abstract Particle-in-cell simulations are used to study how neutral pressure influences plasma properties at the sheath edge. The high rate of ion–neutral collisions at pressures above several mTorr are found to cause a decrease in the ion velocity at the sheath edge (collisional Bohm criterion), a decrease in the edge-to-center density ratio ( h l factor), and an increase in the sheath width and sheath potential drop. A comparison with existing analytic models generally indicates favorable agreement, but with some distinctions. One is that models for the h l factor need to be made consistent with the collisional Bohm criterion. With this and similar corrections, a comprehensive fluid-based model of the plasma boundary transition is constructed that compares well with the simulation results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗