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NASA NTRS2020

The AERONET Version 3 Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm, Associated Uncertainties and Comparisons to Version 2

The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) Version 3 (V3) aerosol retrieval algorithm is described, which is based on the Version 2 (V2) algorithm with numerous updates. Comparisons of V3 aerosol retrievals to those of V2 are presented, along with a new approach to estimate uncertainties in many of the retrieved aerosol parameters. Changes in the V3 aerosol retrieval algorithm include (1) a new polarized radiative transfer code (RTC), which replaced the scalar RTC of V2, (2) detailed characterization of gas absorption by adding NO2 and H2O to specify total gas absorption in the atmospheric column, specification of vertical profiles of all the atmospheric species, (3) new bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF) parameters for land sites adopted from the MODIS BRDF/Albedo product, (4) a new version of the extraterrestrial solar flux spectrum, and (5) a new temperature correction procedure of both direct Sun and sky radiance measurements. The potential effect of each change in V3 on single scattering albedo (SSA) retrievals was analyzed. The operational almucantar retrievals of V2 versus V3 were compared for four AERONET sites: GSFC, Mezaira, Mongu, and Kanpur. Analysis showed very good agreement in retrieved parameters of the size distributions. Comparisons of SSA retrievals for dust aerosols (Mezaira) showed a good agreement in 440 nm SSA, while for longer wavelengths V3 SSAs are systematically higher than those of V2, with the largest mean difference at 675 nm due to cumulative effects of both extraterrestrial solar flux and BRDF changes. For non-dust aerosols, the largest SSA deviation is at 675 nm due to differences in extraterrestrial solar flux spectrums used in each version. Further, the SSA 675 nm mean differences are very different for weakly (GSFC) and strongly (Mongu) absorbing aerosols, which is explained by the lower sensitivity to a bias in aerosol scattering optical depth by less absorbing aerosols. A new hybrid (HYB) sky radiance measurement scan is introduced and discussed. The HYB combines features of scans in two different planes to maximize the range of scattering angles and achieve scan symmetry, thereby allowing for cloud screening and spatial averaging, which is an advantage over the principal plane scan that lacks robust symmetry. We show that due to an extended range of scattering angles, HYB SSA retrievals for dust aerosols exhibit smaller variability with solar zenith angles (SZAs) than those of almucantar (ALM), which allows extension of HYB SSA retrievals to SZAs less than 50∘ to as small as 25∘. The comparison of SSA retrievals from closely time-matched HYB and ALM scans in the 50 to 75∘ SZA range showed good agreement with the differences below ∼0.005. We also present an approach to estimate retrieval uncertainties which utilizes the variability in retrieved parameters generated by perturbing both measurements and auxiliary input parameters as a proxy for retrieval uncertainty. The perturbations in measurements and auxiliary inputs are assumed as estimated biases in aerosol optical depth (AOD), radiometric calibration of sky radiances combined with solar spectral irradiance, and surface reflectance. For each set of Level 2 Sun/sky radiometer observations, 27 inputs corresponding to 27 combinations of biases were produced and separately inverted to generate the following statistics of the inversion results: average, standard deviation, minimum and maximum values. From these statistics, standard deviation (labeled U27) is used as a proxy for estimated uncertainty, and a lookup table (LUT) approach was implemented to reduce the computational time. The U27 climatological LUT was generated from the entire AERONET almucantar (1993–2018) and hybrid (2014–2018) scan databases by binning U27s in AOD (440 nm), Angström exponent (AE, 440–870 nm), and SSA (440, 675, 870, 1020 nm). Using this LUT approach, the uncertainty estimates U27 for each individual V3 Level 2 retrieval can be obtained by interpolation using the corresponding measured and inverted combination of AOD, AE, and SSA.

Aliaksandr Siniuk↗
NASA NTRS1986

Mesospheric ozone changes associated with 27-day solar ultraviolet flux variations

Solar ultraviolet flux changes associated with the 27-day solar rotational period cause corresponding variations in mesospheric ozone near the maximum of the 11-year sunspot cycle. This statement is based on a correlation and spectral analysis of ozone mixing ratios, deduced from Solar Mesospheric explorer satellite-based measurements of 1.27-micron O2 airglow emission and solar flux observations made from the same spacecraft in 1982. With the Lyman-alpha flux taken as an indicator of solar ultraviolet variability, spectral analysis shows a primary period of 27.1 days with a secondary period of 13.5 days. The 27.1-day period is observed in the ozone mixing ratio data together with other periods, including 13.5 days. Both a classical statistical analysis and a time series treatment show that, for 244 days, there is a correlation between ozone and solar flux near 50 km and between 65 and 70 km. Calculations predict a positive correlation over the entire mesosphere if there is no change in temperature accompanying the solar flux. Lack of correlation is temperature induced.

Aikin, A. C.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Solar wind turbulence: Observations of MHD effects

Since the first in-situ observations it was realized that the solar wind is permeated by large-amplitude variations on a very extended range of scales. In this paper an overview of our present state of knowledge for fluctuations in the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) regime is given. These fluctuations are an important component of the solar wind variability and notably contribute to the overall energy and momentum flux. They generally have a turbulent character and their amplitude is large enough to suggest the presence of nonlinear effects. In recent years the use of high time-resolution data on an extended range of heliocentric distances has allowed major steps towards a satisfactory understanding of the solar wind MHD fluctuations. Their radial evolution in the expanding wind has been determined through detailed analyses of the variations in their spectral features. correlations. and anisotropics. The role of interplanetary sources has been carefully investigated. The influence of interactions with structures convected by the solar wind has been examined. Fluctuations have been studied in the light of theories developed to draw together the effects of both incompressibility and compressibility. Increasing attention has been devoted to the intermittent character of the turbulence. Finally, very recent observations by Ulysses at high heliographic latitudes have allowed the first in-situ analysis of turbulence features in polar regions of the heliosphere.

Bavassano, B.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Day-to-Day Variability of Ionosphere Electron Density During Solar Minimum Derived From FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 Measurements

This study examines the day-to-day variability of low-latitude ionosphere using global ionospheric specification (GIS) electron density profiles derived from FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 radio occultation measurements during a deep solar minimum period of August 2019 to July 2020. The measurements reveal significant daily variations over dayside low latitudes, yielding about 10-20% standard deviation in equinoxes, 20-30% in solstices, reaching 40-50% in winter. The nighttime deviations could be 30-60%, being largest in solstices. Day-to-day variations are also observed in the longitudinal wave-4 structures. The period mostly remained geomagnetically quiet except for some moderate disturbances on a few days. Tidal decomposition of the GIS electron density shows that in-situ forced migrating diurnal (DW1) terdiurnal (TW3) oscillations and the background zonal mean yield only ~25% of the daily variations despite accounting for almost 75-90% of the observed electron density. Thus, forcing from lower atmosphere dominates the contribution (~75%) to the observed daily variations. Only about one third of this lower atmospheric forcing comes from the migrating semidiurnal SW2 and the usually investigated non-migrating diurnal eastward DE2, DE3, stationary planetary wave SPW3, SPW4, and semidiurnal eastward SE1, and SE2 components. The residual tides other than those mentioned above, including secondary waves through non-linear interactions and other planetary waves, thus significantly influence the day-to-day variations in electron density and modify the longitudinal wave structures.

day-to-day variability↗
NASA NTRS1992

Temperature and size variabilities of the Western Pacific Warm Pool

Variabilities in sea-surface temperature and size of the Western Pacific Warm Pool were tracked with 10 years of satellite multichannel sea-surface temperature observations from 1982 to 1991. The results show that both annual mean sea-surface temperature and the size of the warm pool increased from 1983 to 1987 and fluctuated after 1987. Possible causes of these variations include solar irradiance variabilities, El Nino-Southern Oscillaton events, volcanic activities, and global warming.

Yan, Xiao-Hai↗
NASA NTRS2022

Space Weather: From Solar Origins to Risks and Hazards Evolving in Time

Space Weather is the portion of space physics that has a direct effect onhumankind. Space Weather is an old branch of space physics that originatesback to 1808 with the publication of a paper by the great naturalist Alexandervon Humboldt (Von Humboldt, Ann. Phys. 1808, 29, 425–429),first defining a“Magnetische Ungewitter”or magnetic storm from auroral observations fromhis home in Berlin, Germany. Space Weather is currently experiencing explosivegrowth, because its effects on human technologies have become more andmore diverse. Space Weather is due to the variability of solar processes thatcause interplanetary, magnetospheric, ionospheric, atmospheric and groundlevel effects. Space Weather can at times have strong impacts on technologicalsystems and human health. The threats and risks are not hypothetical, and in theevent of extreme Space Weather events the consequences could be quitesevere for humankind. The purpose of the review is to give a brief overall view ofthe full chain of physical processes responsible for Space Weather risks andhazards, tracing them from solar origins to effects and impacts in interplanetaryspace, in the Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere and at the ground. Inaddition, the paper shows that the risks associated with Space Weather have notbeen constant over time; they have evolved as our society becomes more andmore technologically advanced. The paper begins with a brief introduction tothe Carrington event, arguably the greatest geomagnetic storm in recordedhistory. Next, the descriptions of the strongest known Space Weather processesare reviewed, tracing them from their solar origins. The concepts ofgeomagnetic storms and substorms are briefly introduced. The main effects/impacts of Space Weather are also considered, including geomagneticallyinduced currents (GICs) which are thought to cause power outages. Theeffects of radiation on avionics and human health, ionospheric effects andimpacts, and thermosphere effects and satellite drag will also be discussed.Finally, we will discuss the current challenges of Space Weather forecasting andexamine some of the worst-case scenarios.

Natalia Buzulukova↗
NASA NTRS1994

Ionospheric projections of magnetospheric regions under low and high solar wind pressure conditions

The projection of magnetospheric regions into the dayside ionosphere as determined by particle precipitation characteristics was studied for dependence on solar wind parameters. It was found that the solar wind kinetic pressure p dramatically affected the map of magnetospheric projections. Under the constraint that p greater than or equal 4 nPa(yielding (p) = 5.9 nPa), the area of the cusp (magnetic latitude times magnetic local time extent) was 4.83 degree-hours; whereas under the constraint that p greater than or equal 2 nPa (yielding (p) = 1.5 nPa), the cusp area was only 1.01 degree-hours. The ionospheric footprint of the low-latitude boundary layer was similarly affected. Various possible correlations of p with other solar wind variables, including n, v, and absolute value of B(sub z), proved unable to account for the pressure effect. Because one criterion for identifying the cusp is high fluxes, the effect of nv was investigated with particular care, both in examples and statistically. Again, p itself had by far the most striking effect. Thus we concluded that some physical mechanism is needed to account for the pressure effect. One possibility is that increased direct solar wind plasma penetration of the magnetopause occurs under high-p conditions in the manner suggested by various proponents of impulsive penetration models. An alternative, which we find promising, is that, regardless of the original interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength, a high-p solar wind leads to a large compression factor for the magnetosheath field, which is the field actually in contact with the magnetosphere. From this latter viewpoint, the chief effect of high particle pressure is simply to enhance the effectiveness of the interaction of the IMF with the magnetosphere.

Newell, Patrick T.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Using Empirical Models for Communication Prediction of Spacecraft

A viable communication path to a spacecraft is vital for its successful operation. For human spaceflight, a reliable and predictable communication link between the spacecraft and the ground is essential not only for the safety of the vehicle and the success of the mission, but for the safety of the humans on board as well. However, analytical models of these communication links are challenged by unique characteristics of space and the vehicle itself. For example, effects of radio frequency during high energy solar events while traveling through a solar array of a spacecraft can be difficult to model, and thus to predict. This presentation covers the use of empirical methods of communication link predictions, using the International Space Station (ISS) and its associated historical data as the verification platform and test bed. These empirical methods can then be incorporated into communication prediction and automation tools for the ISS in order to better understand the quality of the communication path given a myriad of variables, including solar array positions, line of site to satellites, position of the sun, and other dynamic structures on the outside of the ISS. The image on the left below show the current analytical model of one of the communication systems on the ISS. The image on the right shows a rudimentary empirical model of the same system based on historical archived data from the ISS.

Quasny, Todd↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty Quantification of PV Annual Energy Estimates in the System Advisor Model

This work will detail a proposed uncertainty quantification method for PV annual energy estimates. Motivations behind the proposed methodology will be discussed, including the frequent underperformance of installed PV systems to calculated probability of exceedance values being seen in industry. A methodology in which uncertainty factors correlated to different parts of the PV annual energy model chain are applied to annual energy estimates in conjunction with uncertainty from inter-annual solar resource variability will be described. The application of this methodology in the System Advisor Model (SAM) will also be discussed with example cases and graphical outputs of the probability of exceedance data calculated for the PV annual energy estimates.

energy modeling↗
NASA NTRS1990

Solar Activity and the Sea-surface Temperature Record-evidence of a Long-period Variation in Solar Total Irradiance

There have been many suggestions over the years of a connection between solar activity and the Earth's climate on time scales long compared to the 11-year sunspot cycle. They have remained little more than suggestions largely because of the major uncertainties in the climate record itself, and the difficulty in trying to compile a global average from an assembly of measurements that are uneven in both quality and distribution. Different climate time response to solar activity, some suggesting a positive correlation, some a negative correlation, and some no correlation at all. The only excuse for making yet another such suggestion is that much effort has been devoted in recent years to compiling climate records for the past century or more that are internally consistent and believable, and that a decadal-scale record of solar total irradiance is emerging from spacecraft measurements, and can be used to set limits on the variation that is likely to have occurred on these time scales. The work described here was originally inspired by the observation that the time series of globally averaged sea-surface temperatures over the past 120 years or so, as compiled by the British Meteorological Office group (Folland and Kates, 1984), bore a resonable similarity to the long-term average sunspot number, which is an indicator of the secular variability of solar activity. The two time series are shown where the sunspot number is shown as the 135-month running mean, and the SST variation is shown as the departure from an arbitrary average value. The simplest explanation of the similarity, if one accepts it as other than coincidental, is that the sun's luminosity may have been varying more or less in step with the level of solar activity, or in other words that there is a close coupling between the sun's magnetic condition and its radiative output on time scales longer than the 11-year cycle. Such an idea is not new, and in fact the time series shown can be regarded as a modern extension of the proposal put forward by Eddy (1977) to explain the covariance between various global climate indicators and solar activity as revealed by the C-14 record over the past millenium.

Reid, George C.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Speculation on a Solar Chronometer for Climate

Solar activity has been correlated to climatic fluctuations and has been postulated as a major factor in quasi-periodic global climatic change. However, correlations are not explanations of physical mechanisms and do not couple cause with effect. A mechanism for a chronometer for solar output variability is proposed based on relations between properties of thermonuclear fusion, nuclear magnetic moment, and nuclear magnetic resonance. A fundamental oscillation of a nucleus with a net nuclear magnetic moment (NMM) is the precession of its axis of rotation when subjected to a magnetic field. Nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) is the preferred frequency of precession for a nucleus of a particular isotope when placed in a magnetic field of specific intensity. The NMM for those isotopes involved in the proton-proton (p-p) chain pathway for solar fusion varies from strong positive to strong negative. Individual fusion events, for hydrogen and helium isotopes which release varying amounts of energy, may be controlled by NMR frequencies. The pulses of energy from fusion events occurring at NMR frequencies in the solar interior may be transformed into pressure or gravity waves that emerge as gravity or acoustic waves at the surface. Dictated by spherical harmonics, certain wavelengths may be reinforced and reenter the solar interior to modulate the fusion process. Qualitative analysis of solar and climatic data support the interaction of the three basic components of the chronometer, magnetic activity, oscillation frequency, and solar energy output.

Perry, Charles A.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Heliocentric Distance and Solar Activity Dependence of Sustained Quasi-radial Interplanetary Magnetic Field Occurrence

Planets close to their stars experience an interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that is dominantly quasi-radial. Our solar system serves as a laboratory to study how the occurrence of quasi-radial IMF varies away from the star and under different stellar activities. Furthermore, on time and spatial scales relevant to magnetospheric physics, solar wind variability prevails in the form of structures generated both at the Sun and locally in the interplanetary space. The stationary Parker spiral model only approximates the large-scale structure of the IMF. Deviations from the Parker spiral often result in strongly radial magnetic fields that give rise to kinetic foreshock turbulence, which in turn can impact planetary magnetospheres. The relative significance of this type of interaction can be estimated statistically based on the occurrence rate of cases where the IMF is directed along the radial direction, leading to the entire day-side magnetosphere being downstream of the ion foreshock. We use observations covering radial distances from 0.1 to 10 au and more than 2 solar cycles to quantify the prevalence of radial IMFs throughout the heliosphere. Near Earth's orbit, it is found that the occurrence rates of quasi-radial and southward IMF orientations are similar, and that the Pearson correlation coefficient is ${{ \mathcal R }}_{{xy}}\sim -0.7$ calculated between quasi-radial IMF occurrence rate and solar activity. A negative correlation is demonstrated for radial distances extending to at least Mars but not to Saturn.

Brandon L Burkholder↗
NASA NTRS2019

Forecasting the Structure and Orientation of Earthbound Coronal Mass Ejections

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the key drivers of strong to extreme space weather storms at the Earth that can have drastic consequences for technological systems in space and on ground.The ability of a CME to drive geomagnetic disturbances depends crucially on the magnetic structure of the embedded flux rope, which is thus essential to predict. The current capabilities in forecasting in advance(at least half a day before) the geo effectiveness of a given CME is however severely hampered by the lack of remote-sensing measurements of the magnetic field in the corona and adequate tools to predict how CMEs deform, rotate, and deflect during their travel through the coronal and interplanetary space as they interact with the ambient solar wind and other CMEs. These problems can lead not only to over estimation or underestimation of the severity of a storm, but also to forecasting "misses" and "false alarms" that are particularly difficult for the end-users. In this paper, we discuss the current status and future challenges and prospects related to forecasting of the magnetic structure and orientation of CMEs. We focus both on observational- and modeling-based (first principle and semiempirical) approaches and discuss the space- and ground-based observations that would be the most optimal for making accurate space weather predictions. We also cover the gaps in our current understanding related to the formation and eruption of the CME flux rope and physical processes that govern its evolution in the variable ambient solar windbackground that complicate the forecasting.

Kilpua, E. K. J.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Economic evaluation of variable renewable energy participation in U.S. ancillary services markets

Variable renewable energy (VRE) is not yet meaningfully participating in U.S. ancillary services (AS) markets. VRE participation in AS markets could provide a new source of revenue for VRE resource owners to offset declining energy and capacity values and a new tool for power system operators to address emerging system constraints. This paper uses a price-taker dispatch model and historical prices to estimate the economic value of standalone and hybrid (battery-paired) VRE participation in AS markets, from the resource owner and electricity system perspectives, in each of the seven U.S. independent system operator and regional transmission organization (ISO/RTO) markets where ancillary service prices are set. Across ISO/RTO markets, average (2015–2019) simulated incremental revenues from power regulation market participation were 0.0–2.9 USD/MWh (+0–15% of revenue without participation) for standalone VRE owners and 1–33 USD/MWh (+1–69%) for hybrid VRE owners. However, ISO/RTO reserve markets are relatively thin and have the potential to become saturated by energy storage projects that are currently in ISO/RTO interconnection queues. In most markets, standalone and hybrid VRE could provide power regulation reserves during periods with high power regulation prices, suggesting that VRE participation in AS markets could have high system value. The analysis highlights the relevance of separate upward and downward power regulation products and indicates that ISOs/RTOs might consider initially focusing on enabling hybrid VRE provision of AS.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2020

SCOPE: Spectral cloud optical property estimation using real-time GOES-R longwave imagery

The output of ground-based, solar power generation systems is strongly dependent on cloud cover, which is the main contributor to solar power variability and uncertainty. Cloud optical properties are typically over-simplified in forecasting applications due to the lack of realtime, accurate estimates. In this work, we introduce a method, the Spectral Cloud Optical Property Estimation (SCOPE), for estimating cloud optical properties directly from high-resolution (5-min, 2 km) imagery from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES)-R, which is the newest generation of the GOES system. The SCOPE method couples a two-stream, spectrally resolved radiative model with the longwave GOES-R sensor output to simultaneously estimate the cloud optical depth, cloud top height, and cloud thickness during both day and night at 5-min intervals. The accuracy of SCOPE is evaluated using one year (2018) of downwelling longwave (DLW) radiation measurements from the Surface Radiation Budget Network, which consists of seven sites spread across climatically diverse regions of the contiguous United States. During daytime clear-sky periods, SCOPE predicts DLW within instrument uncertainty (10 W m -2 ) for four of the seven locations, with the remaining locations yielding errors of the order of 11.2, 17.7, and 20.2 W m -2 . For daytime cloudy-sky, daytime all-sky (clear or cloudy), and nighttime all-sky periods, SCOPE achieves root mean square error values of 23.0–34.5 W m -2 for all seven locations. These results, together with the low-latency of the method (1 s per sample), show that SCOPE provides a viable solution to real-time, accurate estimation of cloud optical properties for both day and night.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗
DOE OSTI2024

National Climate Database (NCDB)

The National Climate Database (NCDB) is a high resolution, bias-corrected climate dataset consisting of the three most widely used variables of solar radiation- global horizontal (GHI), direct normal (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI)- as well as other meteorological data. The goal of the NCDB is to provide unbiased high temporal and spatial resolution climate data needed for renewable energy modeling. The NCDB is modeled using a statistical downscaling approach with Regional Climate Model (RCM)-based climate projections obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX; linked below). Daily climate projections simulated by the Canadian Regional Climate Model 4 (CanRCM4) forced by the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 or moderate emissions scenario and RCP8.5 or highest baseline emission scenario) are selected as inputs to the statistical downscaling models. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to build and calibrate statistical models.

Array↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impacts of Climate Change on the Generation Potential of Solar and Wind Energy Systems in India

Low-carbon energy sources like wind and solar are essential for decarbonizing the electricity sector. In addition, the cost of electricity generated from these sources has plummeted over the last decade. Therefore, these energy sources are poised to take a significant share of the total installed capacity soon. However, they are susceptible to the impacts of climate change as their generation potential depends on the weather conditions. Estimating the installed capacity requirements of solar and wind energy to decarbonize the power sector without accounting for these possible changes in generation potential could lead to missing out on the set climate goals and meeting future electricity demand. This study evaluates the effect of climate change on the generation potential of wind and solar energy systems in India for two future periods, 2050 and 2070, under two climate scenarios or Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP): SSP245 and SSP585. Almost all regions show a decrease, and most regions show a significant decline (>5%) in the generation potential of solar Photovoltaic (PV) as compared to 2010 levels under both climate scenarios and future periods. The changes in the generation potential of wind energy are more significant (>10%), and the majority of regions show a decline in generation potential. Southwestern and central regions show an increase in wind generation potential for 2070 as compared to 2050 levels under the SSP245 scenario and the SSP585 scenario, respectively.

climate change↗