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431 records · Page 24

Experimental Measurements of Soot and Soot Precursors of Sustainable Aviation Fuels

Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) are promising for decarbonizing the challenging-to-electrify aerospace sector and reducing yearly greenhouse gas emissions by thousands of tons. Developing predictive detailed chemical kinetic models for SAF (and traditional) fuel mixtures necessitates a robust experimental database to elucidate the intricate pyrolysis and oxidation chemistry of SAF fuel blend components. Two critical components of SAF surrogate mixtures are iso-dodecane isomers and trans-decalin. This report characterizes the structure of three slightly sooting, laminar, non-premixed, nitrogen-diluted Planar Mixing Layer Flames (PMLFs) fueled by either pure ethylene, ethylene doped with 1500ppm of either 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin. The flames have the same stoichiometric mixture fraction and total mole fraction of fuels in the fuel stream (X F,F = X C2H4,F + X Dopant,F = 0.26), resulting in approximately the same maximum temperature (T max ≈ 1800 K) to highlight the effect of doping on soot and its gaseous precursors. The PMLF is unconfined and established between adjacent planar jets of the fuel and oxidizer streams surrounded by annular shielding nitrogen. The flow is stabilized by exhausting the hot buoyant flame products through a slot in a downstream plate onto which the cold flow impinges. Importantly, any horizontal cross-section of the PMLF has a self-similar thermochemical structure of a reactive boundary layer that grows at increasing Height Above the Burner (HAB). Therefore, the horizontal cross-sections of a PMLF can be modeled as a One-Dimensional Counterflow Flame (1D-CF) with very low strain rates which are unachievable in traditional CFs and yield a structure that is several millimeters thick. In brief, the PMLF is ideal for performing spatially resolved measurements with minimal effects of the sampling-induced perturbations, to develop and validate detailed chemical kinetic models on time scales of a few tens of milliseconds that are relevant in aviation applications. The horizontal profiles of C0-C18 gaseous species at HAB = 50 mm and soot volume fraction at 25 and 50 mm are measured using capillary sampling followed by GC-MS analyses and Laser Induced Emission Spectroscopy (LIES), respectively. Additionally, the Elastic Laser Light Scattering (E-LLS) coefficient is measured at HAB = 50 mm and 25 mm to determine the strain rates of the 1D-CFs equivalent to the characterized PMLF horizontal cross sections and the profile of the E-LLS equivalent diameter of soot. The comparison of the results in the base PMLF fueled only by ethylene with those in either doped PMLF in which 1500 ppm of ethylene are replaced with 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane or trans-decalin, reveals that the doping increases the mole fraction of several Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) at both HABs by a factor of approximately 2.5, and the soot volume fraction at both HABs by factors of ~1.5 for 2,2,4,6,6-pentamethyl-heptane and ~1.25 for trans-decalin doping, respectively. Conversely, doping causes a near doubling of the soot equivalent diameter only at HAB = 50 mm, without significant effects at 25 mm. The experimental results partially validate the tested state-of-the-art detailed chemical kinetic model and also point toward the further improvement of its predictive capabilities.

10 SYNTHETIC FUELS↗

Multi-Scale Integrated Monitoring System for Enhancing Methane Emission Detection, Quantification & Prediction

This report details the progress and findings of a comprehensive study on reviewing existing solutions, identifying technology gaps, and formulating an “all-in-one” integrated strategy for developing the next-generation multiscale methane monitoring and modeling platform, conducted under grant number DE-FE0032292. Co-led by Dr. David Ebert, Dr. Binbin Weng, and Dr. Chenghao Wang at the University of Oklahoma, the project’s goal was to develop an integrated approach for building this engineering platform to detect, quantify, and mitigate methane emissions across various temporal scale, spatial scales, and sectors. The planning grant study began with an extensive review of various methane sensing and monitoring technologies and systems, surveying over 100 technology providers globally. This review revealed the prevalence of optical methods over chemical methods in commercially available sensors, with Non-Dispersive Infrared (NDIR), Tunable Diode Laser Absorption Spectroscopy (TDLAS), and Optical Gas Imaging (OGI) cameras being the most prevalent options. A trend towards more advanced optical techniques was observed, driven by increased regulatory focus and technological advancements. The technical evaluation of these sensing technologies provided crucial insights into their capabilities and limitations. The study examined emerging technologies such as Differential Absorption LiDAR (DIAL), which show promise for high-precision and long-range detection. The team then investigated the features and application bandwidth of various sensing platforms, including handheld, fixed/stationary, mobile, aerials, and spaceborne monitors. Pilot field studies were conducted to assess the capabilities of solutions for different emission scenarios. Field work with sensor deployments was conducted at three distinct site types: an oil & gas industry site, a cattle ranching operation, and a waste processing facility. The team also conducted a thorough review of methane flux inverse modeling approaches, focused on physically based methods. These approaches were categorized into simple, intermediate, and advanced methods. A realtime WRF-GHG (Weather Research and Forecasting-Greenhouse Gas) modeling system was developed and applied, incorporating multiple data sources to guide field experiments and inform methane plume detection. The project identified and analyzed numerous categories of methane data sources, including satellite measurements, ground-based sensors, and inventory databases. Key platforms examined include EDGAR, EPA GHGI, NASA TROPOMI, Carbon Mapper, and Climate TRACE, among others. The team proposed an architecture for a comprehensive methane monitoring platform. This system incorporates multi-source data acquisition, advanced data processing and assimilation, interactive visualization tools, and analytical capabilities for emissions forecasting and scenario analysis. The proposed platform aims to provide a user-friendly interface catering to various stakeholders, from researchers to policymakers. The architecture includes sophisticated data ingestion methods, a centralized data warehouse, and advanced analytical tools for data fusion and interpretation. To ensure the relevance and effectiveness of the proposed system, a comprehensive survey was conducted to gather stakeholder input on system requirements. Key findings include a strong need for integrating various data types and formats, a preference for real-time data updates and advanced visualization tools, and a demand for user-friendly interfaces catering to different expertise levels.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Minimally Mutated HIV-1 Broadly Neutralizing Antibodies to Guide Reductionist Vaccine Design

An optimal HIV vaccine should induce broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) that neutralize diverse viral strains and subtypes. However, potent bnAbs develop in only a small fraction of HIV-infected individuals, all contain rare features such as extensive mutation, insertions, deletions, and/or long complementarity-determining regions, and some are polyreactive, casting doubt on whether bnAbs to HIV can be reliably induced by vaccination. We engineered two potent VRC01-class bnAbs that minimized rare features. According to a quantitative features frequency analysis, the set of features for one of these minimally mutated bnAbs compared favorably with all 68 HIV bnAbs analyzed and was similar to antibodies elicited by common vaccines. This same minimally mutated bnAb lacked polyreactivity in four different assays. We then divided the minimal mutations into spatial clusters and dissected the epitope components interacting with those clusters, by mutational and crystallographic analyses coupled with neutralization assays. Finally, by synthesizing available data, we developed a working-concept boosting strategy to select the mutation clusters in a logical order following a germline-targeting prime. We have thus developed potent HIV bnAbs that may be more tractable vaccine goals compared to existing bnAbs, and we have proposed a strategy to elicit them. This reductionist approach to vaccine design, guided by antibody and antigen structure, could be applied to design candidate vaccines for other HIV bnAbs or protective Abs against other pathogens.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

A Voxel-Based Approach to Explore Local Dose Differences Associated With Radiation-Induced Lung Damage

Purpose: To apply a voxel-based (VB) approach aimed at exploring local dose differences associated with late radiation-induced lung damage (RILD). Methods and Materials: An interinstitutional database of 98 patients who were Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) survivors treated with postchemotherapy supradiaphragmatic radiation therapy was analyzed in the study. Eighteen patients experienced late RILD, classified according to the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group scoring system. Each patient's computed tomographic (CT) scan was normalized to a single reference case anatomy (common coordinate system, CCS) through a log-diffeomorphic approach. The obtained deformation fields were used to map the dose of each patient into the CCS. The coregistration robustness and the dose mapping accuracy were evaluated by geometric and dose scores. Two different statistical mapping schemes for nonparametric multiple permutation inference on dose maps were applied, and the corresponding P<.05 significance lung subregions were generated. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC)-based test was performed on the mean dose extracted from each subregion. Results: The coregistration process resulted in a geometrically robust and accurate dose warping. A significantly higher dose was consistently delivered to RILD patients in voxel clusters near the peripheral medial-basal portion of the lungs. The area under the ROC curves (AUC) from the mean dose of the voxel clusters was higher than the corresponding AUC derived from the total lung mean dose. Conclusions: We implemented a framework including a robust registration process and a VB approach accounting for the multiple comparison problem in dose-response modeling, and applied it to a cohort of HL survivors to explore a local dose–RILD relationship in the lungs. Patients with RILD received a significantly greater dose in parenchymal regions where low doses (∼6 Gy) were delivered. Interestingly, the relation between differences in the high-dose range and RILD seems to lack a clear spatial signature.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Collaborative atomic-scale design, analysis, and nanofabrication for record breaking, single-crystal Zn(x)Cd(1-x)Te solar cell arrays

Cadmium telluride (CdTe) based photovoltaics provide a viable solar energy solution because of their short payback time, low manufacturing cost, and high theoretical efficiency ~29%. However, the highest record laboratory efficiency is only 22.1% and long-term performance degradation is ~1 % per year which hinders greater economic viability. Higher open circuit voltage (Voc) and fill factor (FF) are needed to increase the efficiency of the solar cell. Cells with record energy conversion efficiencies report short current (Jsc) values close to their theoretical maximum. However, Voc and FF in these devices remain well below their anticipated optimum. These electrical parameters depend on the quality of the various layers in the solar cell. In particular they depend on the crystalline quality including the defect and impurity concentrations. Therefore understanding how defects and impurities form and evolve in the material layers is important to design devices with higher efficiency and stability. The aim of this project is to create a novel path around the fundamental barriers to achieve high open-circuit voltages (VOC ≥ 1.0 V) in CdTe/CdS solar cells. The idea of the project was to combine nanopatterned crystal growth and alloy compositional grading (with concomitant lattice parameter and energy band gap grading) to reduce the defect density and dramatically improve spatial uniformity of ZnxCd(1-x)Te/CdS cells. The lattice mismatch between ZnTe and CdS is 3.9% compared to a much larger 9.2% between CdTe and CdS. Importantly, when crystal growth is contained to the nanoscale, the strain in each layer is reduced by a factor of two due to strain partitioning and 3D strain relief mechanisms that come into play. This reduces the strain in the ZnTe from 3.9% to 1.95% which is within the range of metamorphic crystal growth. In preliminary studies, molecular dynamics simulation of ZnTe/CdS islands predicted dislocation-free material when the patterning was reduced to ~80 nm in diameter. The energy band gap of ZnxCd(1-x)Te is also graded in conjunction with alloy composition. ZnTe has an energy band gap of 2.3 eV. Finally, an added benefit of patterned growth is that it enables direct one-to-one study of the relationships between fabrication, microstructure and performance of individual crystal grains within the array. Experimental characterization techniques such as atomic probe tomography (APT) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) have elucidated much about the microstructure of the layers. However, the techniques are destructive, costly and have limitations on the information they convey. For example, TEM gives information with atomic scale resolution but on 2-dimensional substrates. On the other hand, APT gives 3-dimensional information but is not able to resolve atomic scale structure. Alternatively, Molecular Dynamics (MD) simulations offer a solution to rapidly generate time-resolved, 3-dimensional, atomic scale structures of crystal growth. Direct MD simulations of microstructures of Cu-doped II-VI compound multilayers can impact the research on CdTe/CdS solar cells. Such MD simulations require an interatomic potential database that includes at least four elements Cu, Cd, Te, and S. The Stillinger-Weber (SW) potential is the most widely used interatomic potential for semiconductors. However, while SW potentials have been developed for Ga-In-As-Se-Te, Al-Ga-In-P-As-Sb, Cd-Te-Zn-As-Si, In-Ga-N systems, no potentials existed to simulate Cd-Zn-Hg-Se-S-Te-Cu. The goal of this effort was to fill the knowledge gap by developing a Zn-Cd-Hg-S-Se-Te-Cu SW potential database to enable MD simulations of microstructures of Cu-doped CdTe/CdS solar cells. The new potential was then applied, via MD crystal growth simulations, to study the growth mechanisms and atomic structures of the ZnTe/Cu/CdTe/CdS multilayers under various conditions. The objective of the project was to inform the solar cell community on crystal growth and defect formation at the interface between CdTe-based epilayers grown on CdS substrates. MD simulations offered a unique opportunity to analyze the 3-dimensional crystal growth evolution of Cu doped ZnxCd(1-x)TeyS(1-y) alloys with atomic scale resolution under a variety of conditions. The effect of substrate orientation and polycrystallinity on crystal growth was studied. Substrates with grain boundaries were created and the growth evolution on these substrates were analyzed. Another focus was to elucidate the effect of dopant incorporation on the nature of polycrystallinity crystal growth. Dopants available through the Stillinger-Weber potential developed in this project included Cu, Zn, S, Se, Hg and native vacancies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

The miniJPAS survey: A search for extreme emission-line galaxies

Context. Galaxies with extreme emission lines (EELGs) may play a key role in the evolution of the Universe, as well as in our understanding of the star formation process itself. For this reason an accurate determination of their spatial density and fundamental properties in different epochs of the Universe will constitute a unique perspective towards a comprehensive picture of the interplay between star formation and mass assembly in galaxies. In addition to this, EELGs are also interesting in order to explain the reionization of the Universe, since their interstellar medium (ISM) could be leaking ionizing photons, and thus they could be low z, analogous of extreme galaxies at high z . Aims. This paper presents a method to obtain a census of EELGs over a large area of the sky by detecting galaxies with rest-frame equivalent widths ≥300 Å in the emission lines [O II]λλ3727,3729Å, [O III]λ5007Å, and Hα. For this, we aim to use the J-PAS survey, which will image an area of ≈8000 deg 2 with 56 narrow band filters in the optical. As a pilot study, we present a methodology designed to select EELGs on the miniJPAS images, which use the same filter dataset as J-PAS, and thus will be exportable to this larger survey. Methods. We make use of the miniJPAS survey data, conceived as a proof of concept of J-PAS, and covering an area of ≈1 deg 2 . Objects were detected in the r SDSS images and selected by imposing a condition on the flux in a given narrow-band J-PAS filter with respect to the contiguous ones, which is analogous to requiring an observed equivalent width larger than 300 Å in a certain emission line within the filter bandwidth. The selected sources were then classified as galaxies or quasi-stellar objects (QSOs) after a comparison of their miniJPAS fluxes with those of a spectral database of objects known to present strong emission lines. This comparison also provided a redshift for each source, which turned out to be consistent with the spectroscopic redshifts when available (|Δz/(1 + z spec )| ≤ 0.01). Results. The selected candidates were found to show a compact appearance in the optical images, some of them even being classified as point-like sources according to their stellarity index. After discarding sources classified as QSOs, a total of 17 sources turned out to exhibit EW 0 ≥ 300 Å in at least one emission line, thus constituting our final list of EELGs. Our counts are fairly consistent with those of other samples of EELGs in the literature, although there are some differences, which were expected due to biases resulting from different selection criteria.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Toward Better Understanding of Microphysical Processes and Resulting Precipitation Physics: A Merger Of Observations and Cloud Models (Final Report)

A large database of global disdrometer observations and a diverse set of simulations from the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) were compared using principal component analysis (PCA) in order to better understand warm and ice-based precipitation processes. The analysis demonstrated that six distinct precipitation groups (PGs) with common characteristics were revealed in both the observations and model simulations. These PGs were defined by similar co-variability of rain parameters. However, the model showed large concentrations of drops with a given size compared to the observations. Detailed investigations determined the parameterization of drop breakup was forcing the drops to an equilibrium size with a stronger constraint than was indicated by the observations. A series of sensitivity studies permutating the rain shape parameter in the RAMS 2-moment bulk scheme demonstrated how the assumed shape of the rain distribution influences the microphysics as well as precipitation characteristics. Results were compared to the same simulations performed with a bin microphysics scheme where the rain shape parameter is freely evolving. In the bin scheme, a wide range of shape parameters were found, with horizontal and vertical variability, in addition to being a function of storm lifetime. The results of this study highlight the limitations of a fixed assumed rain distribution in 2-moment microphysics schemes. Model simulations were used to probe the microphysical origins of the six PGs. Rain budgets from a supercell case showed that several of the groups hypothesized to be associated with strong ice microphysical processes had significant contributions from melting hail, but the complexity of ice and warm-rain processes in the supercell precluded definitive determination of microphysical origins for many of the PGs. A case study from the Mid-latitude Continental Convection and Clouds Experiment (MC3E) compared the model PGs to disdrometer observations, and demonstrated the spatial and temporal variability of the PGs which is not possible from disdrometer point measurements alone. The analyses performed during this project demonstrated how statistical analysis can provide a robust method for comparing model simulations and observations, which ultimately resulted identification of limitations in some current microphysics parameterizations as well as insights into precipitation variability which ultimately benefits both observations and modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Region templates: Data representation and management for high-throughput image analysis

Compartment fires exhibit unique features associated with smoke accumulation and restricted air ventilation. The objective of the present study is to evaluate the ability of CFD-based fire models to simulate these features and in particular the effects of flame extinction that results from under-ventilated fire conditions. The study is performed using FireFOAM; FireFOAM is an advanced fire modeling software developed by FM Global and is based on a general-purpose open-source software called OpenFOAM. A new flame extinction model based on the concept of a critical value of the flame Damköhler number is incorporated into FireFOAM. The performance of the extinction model is evaluated via comparisons with a previously developed experimental database corresponding to a reduced-scale, heptane-fueled, compartment fire configuration. The numerical simulations also include a description of fuel evaporation driven by the computed gas-to-liquid heat feedback. Comparisons between experimental data and numerical results provide a suitable test bed to evaluate the ability of CFD-based fire models to describe the transition from over- to under-ventilated fire conditions, as well as the transition from extinction-free conditions to conditions in which the flame experiences partial or total quenching.

Energy & Fuels↗

Initial Mobility Analysis for ORNL VA-EDH Synthetic Populations

Travel burdens are a major barrier to healthcare access among US Veteran patient populations, particularly those residing in rural areas. Spatial accessibility to points of care for US Veteran populations is commonly assessed in two ways. The first approach uses open data from the US Census to represent collective travel burdens, for example the distance between population-weighted census tract centroids and VHA points of care. The second approach uses restricted-access VHA patient data to measure travel costs (e.g., distance, time) for accessing points of care with respect to geolocated patient addresses and real or approximated transportation networks. While the advantage of the open data approach lies in its reproducibility, it has notable limitations in its tendency to infer individual travel behavior from aggregate population characteristics, a problem known as ecological fallacy. Conversely, while the patient data approach is able to account for individual travel behavior, its ability to account for localized access disparities (e.g., a neighborhood with exceptionally high transportation costs) and patient demographics is limited as protecting individual patient data requires their storage in closed systems with limited capacity for adequately modeling real-world travel patterns or for supplementing patient attributes. Additionally, the patient data approach cannot account for veterans who are not enrolled in the VHA system but who may be eligible for care. These challenges limit the ability to perform “what if” analyses on the effects of place-specific interventions on veteran populations with high access barriers to healthcare. To address these challenges, we explore the application of realistic synthetic populations to examine travel burdens and spatial accessibility issues among veteran patient populations. Synthetic populations provide a virtual, individually-resolved and cross-sectional representation of the veteran patient population that enables investigation of spatial access to points of care in ways in which aggregate data and patient data do not. First, synthetic populations allow one to directly assess how individuals access points of care, from synthesized residential locations to outpatient facilities on real-world transportation networks. Modeling access to points of care at the individual scale addresses the ecological fallacy problem associated with using aggregated census data to represent veteran populations and patterns of movement. Second, synthetic populations provide a means of completely representing an area’s veteran population using only publicly available, anonymized census microdata from the American Community Survey (ACS) to ensure the privacy of real-world individuals. Generating synthetic populations from the ACS also expands descriptive characteristics beyond what patient data typically offers to include socio-demographic, economic, housing, and mobility attributes. More detailed profiles of both VHA patient populations and veterans not enrolled in the VA system will provide a comprehensive picture of groups that may benefit from interventions or outreach. As an initial exercise for using synthetic populations to measure veteran travel burdens to VA care, we apply Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s (ORNL) UrbanPop capability to generate a series of synthetic VHA patient populations for 9 Veterans Integrated Services Networks (VISN) market areas in 9 Census Divisions across the continental United States, which are listed in Table 1. We use UrbanPop to produce synthetic populations for the VISN markets selected for each US Census Division, then assign VA outpatient clinic destinations to synthetic VHA patients based on travel about each VISN market’s road network. To demonstrate using the synthetic populations to evaluate healthcare travel burdens, we compare the time-based impedance between simulated home locations and VA outpatient clinics in each VISN market. We then perform validation exercises on the synthetic populations with respect to neighborhood (block group) demographic composition as well as patient mobility, comparing aggregate origin-destination statistics for the synthetic population to outpatient visits available in restricted patient data from the VA’s Corporate Data Warehouse (CDW) database.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A Hybrid AI/ML and Computational Mechanics Based Approach for Time-Series State and Fatigue Life Estimation of Nuclear Reactor Components

Environmental fatigue modeling is a complex problem due to multiple failure modes and their intermixing. The failure modes are function of various underlying causes in addition to the corrosive effect of reactor coolant environment. Some of the major causes are time-dependence of material associated with cyclic loading, load sequence effect associated with random/variable amplitude loading, effect of strain amplitude and rates, effect of varying temperature (along both temporal and spatial directions) and the effect of mean strain and stress. The nonlinear intermixing of failure modes associated with above mentioned causing parameters makes the environmental fatigue modeling is a challenging task. Because of this challenge, fatigue is traditionally being modeled based on experimental data. However, test based empirical approach often requires hundreds of fatigue tests to model the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes even for a single material system. The problem is further exaggerated for reactor component made from multi-material systems such as made from both carbon and stainless-steel base metals and their similar and dissimilar metal welds. With the difficulty of conducting hundreds of fatigue tests to capture the above-mentioned intermixing failure causes, fatigue modeling approaches often depends on empirical models based on limited available test data such as available through ASME code and NUREG 6909. However, these limited test-data-based models may not be enough to accurately predict the life of reactor components. Accurate prediction of life of reactor component would become a necessity, particularly when the license of the reactors to be extended for long-term-operation (LTO) that is for well beyond its original design life of 40 years. The requirement of extending the license of reactor under LTO requires hundreds of fatigue tests to be conducted to understand the mechanism associated with the above-mentioned interdependent failure causes. However, conducting large number of fatigue tests is not a feasibility due to the cost involved. To address this issues Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) with the sponsorship of DOE Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program trying to develop a hybrid predictive modeling approach. This is based on limited experiment-data, Artificial-intelligence (AI) – Machine-Learning (ML) - Deep-Learning (DL) based techniques and Multiphysics-computational-mechanics based modeling tools. The hybrid approach not-only can improve the accuracy of the existing stress analysis and fatigue modeling approach but also can reduce the over-dependency on test-based approach. Towards this goal following are some of the major contributions based on ANL’s FY-20 environmental fatigue modeling activities: 1) A cyclic plasticity material model database for 82/182 dissimilar metal weld, which can be readily shared with US nuclear industry and regulatory agency on request. 2) A well validated analytical modeling methodology to perform cycle-by-cycle stress prediction under both constant amplitude fatigue loading and variable amplitude fatigue loading (with load-sequence effect). 3) An AI/ML/DL based methodology to predict unmeasurable cyclic strain based on other available sensor signals. This type of approach can be used for estimating strain in real reactor components from other sensor readings. 4) An AI/ML based approach to improve the US capability on environmental fatigue testing. This is by improving ANL’s existing environmental fatigue testing capacity to conduct ASME required strain-controlled tests (by controlling strain amplitudes and its rate), while not measuring the strain (due to the difficulty of placing an extensometer in a narrow autoclave in a PWR-water-test system). 5) A simulation and experiment based probabilistic modeling methodology for time-series fatigue state and life estimation of reactor metal such as dissimilar metal weld.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Simulation Study of Near-Surface Coupling of Nuclear Devices vs. Equivalent High-Explosive Charges

A computational study was performed to examine the differences in near-surface ground-waves and air-blast waves generated by high-explosive energy sources and those generated by much higher energy - density low - yield nuclear sources. The study examined the effect of explosive-source emplacement (i.e., height-of-burst, HOB, or depth-of-burial, DOB) over a range from depths of -35m to heights of 20m, for explosions with an explosive yield of 1-kt . The chemical explosive was modeled by a JWL equation-of-state model for a ~14m diameter sphere of ANFO (~1,200,000kg – 1 k t equivalent yield ), and the high-energy-density source was modeled as a one tonne (1000 kg) plasma of ‘Iron-gas’ (utilizing LLNL’s tabular equation-of-state database, LEOS) in a 2m diameter sphere, with a total internal-energy content equivalent to 1 k t . A consistent equivalent-yield coupling-factor approach was developed to compare the behavior of the two sources. The results indicate that the equivalent-yield coupling-factor for air-blasts from 1 k t ANFO explosions varies monotonically and continuously from a nearly perfec t reflected wave off of the ground surface for a HOB ≈ 20m, to a coupling factor of nearly zero at DOB ≈ -25m. The nuclear air - blast coupling curve, on the other hand, remained nearly equal to a perfectly reflected wave all the way down to HOB’s very near zero, and then quickly dropped to a value near zero for explosions with a DOB ≈ -10m. The near - surface ground - wave traveling horizontally out from the explosive source region to distances of 100’s of meters exhibited equivalent - yield coupling - factors t hat varied nearly linearly with HOB/DOB for the simulated ANFO explosive source, going from a value near zero at HOB ≈ 5m to nearly one at DOB ≈ -25m. The nuclear-source generated near-surface ground wave coupling-factor remained near zero for almost all HOB’s greater than zero, and then appeared to vary nearly - linearly with depth-of-burial until it reached a value of one at a DOB between 15m and 20m. These simulations confirm the expected result that the variation of coupling to the ground, or the air, change s much more rapidly with emplacement location for a high-energy-density (i.e., nuclear-like) explosive source than it does for relatively low - energy - density chemical explosive sources. The Energy Partitioning, Energy Coupling (EPEC) platform at LLNL utilizes laser energy from one quad (i.e. 4-laser beams) of the 192 - beam NIF Laser bank to deliver ~10kJ of energy to 1mg of silver in a hohlraum creating an effective small-explosive ‘source’ with an energy density comparable to those in low-yield nuclear devices. Such experiments have the potential to provide direct experimental confirmation of the simulation results obtained in this study, at a physical scale (and time-scale) which is a factor of 1000 smaller than the spatial- or temporal-scales typically encountered when dealing with nuclear explosions.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

Data for Grogan et al. "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets"

This data set provides model output and post-processing files required to reproduce the results, tables, and figures in the paper "Bringing Hydrologic Realism to Water Markets" by Grogan et al. (in review). Other input data used in this study includes: Lisk, M., Grogan, D., Zuidema, S., Caccese, R., Peklak, D., Zheng, J., Fisher-Vanden, K., Lammers, R., Olmstead, S., & Fowler, L. (2023). Harmonized Database of Western U.S. Water Rights (HarDWR) (Version v1) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/2205619 Two models were used in this study: (1) The University of New Hampshire Water Balance Model WBM, and (2) a Water Market Model. Market model code and model output post-processing code that make use of these data can be found here Model output files are: 1. WBM output files: scenario[x]_wbm_output.zip Where [x] is one of 1, 2, 2a, 3, and 3a Each zipped directory contains 7 gridded NetCDF files, each reporting the 10-year annual average value of a given variable, in units of average mm/day: File Name: wbm_indUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by industry (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_domUseGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals by the domestic sector (part of the urban sector) File Name: wbm_irrigationGross_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals for agriculture File Name: wbm_irrigationExtra_yc.nc; Description: Water withdrawals from unsustainable groundwater for agriculture File Name: wbm_indUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by industry File Name: wbm_domUseEvap_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by the domestic sector File Name: wbm_irrigationNet_yc.nc; Description: Consumptive water use by agriculture The file full_cell_area.nc gives the area of each grid cell in km2, which is used for converting water depth to water volume. 2. Water market model output & post processing output Folder: marketTrdSummaries/ Description: Files in this folder are used as input to code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R. They summarize historical water right trade transactions in each state. File Name: welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: welfare gains by WMA from actual historical trades, as shown in Figure 3A. This data is the output of code 1_WelfareCalculation_actual_trades.R File Name: welfare_summary_simulated.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 1. Produced by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_summary_cutoffs_SGMS.xlsx; Description: Welfare gains by state as simulated by the market model in Scenario 2a. Produced by code 3_DemandCurves_simulated_trades_cutoffs.R, and used in code 4_WelfareCalculation.R. File Name: welfare_data_actual.rdata; Description: Spatial data, actual historical welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3A. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 1 welfare gains by WMA as shown in Figure 3B. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2 welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. File Name: welfare_data_simulated_cutoffs_SGMA.rdata; Description: Spatial data, simulated Scenario 2a welfare gains by WMA. Produced by code 4_WelfareCalculation.R and used by code Figure3.R. Additional files are provided for efficient reproduction of tables and figures. These include: File Name: wma_thresold_dates_Scenario2(a).csv; Description: Wet vs. paper right threshold dates for each WMA. Shown in Figure 2A,B. Produced and used by code calculate_thresolds_Figure2.R File Name: WWRTradeBounds (directory); Description: Trade boundary shapefile required to reproduce Figure 3A-D. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: welfare_region_totals.csv; Description: Welfare gains for the entire study region, as shown in Figure 3E. Used in code Figure3.R File Name: Welfare_gain_by_state_sector.csv; Description: Welfare gains by state and sector, as shown in Figure 3F. Used in code Figure3.R and produced (as a .xlsx file) by code 2_DemandCurves_simulated_trades.R File Name: WECC_MERIT_5min_v3b_mask.nc; Description: Gridded file that identified which land grid cells are in the WBM model domain, used for processing in code Figure4.py File Name: Table_1.csv; Description: All data in Table 1, reproducible from WBM output files using code table_1.R

Economics↗

Data, model inputs, and analysis scripts associated with a manuscript on stream intermittency controls across spatial scales in Pacific Northwest watersheds

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript "Hydroclimatic Memory and Watershed Template Shape Stream Intermittency: Multi-scale Attribution Using Process-based Simulation and Explainable ML" by Niroula et al. (2026), submitted to Water Resources Research (WRR). The study investigates the dominant controls on stream intermittency across local, reach, and watershed scales using a coupled process-based simulation and explainable machine-learning framework. Long-term daily simulations from the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) were used to generate wetness states and ponded-depth responses over river-corridor cells. These ATS outputs were then aggregated across scales and used to train XGBoost (eXtreme Gradient Boosting) models. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) was applied to quantify the relative importance of hydroclimatic forcings, watershed template attributes, and antecedent-memory effects in shaping intermittency behavior. The analysis is carried out for three contrasting Pacific Northwest watersheds: Oak Creek (OCW), American River Watershed (ARW), and H.J. Andrews (HJA). Across these testbeds, the package contains ATS-ready watershed inputs, ATS run configuration and selected output files, model-evaluation data products, intermittency-analysis datasets, machine-learning target-feature tables, SHAP outputs, and notebooks used to organize, analyze, and visualize results. At a high level, the package documents a workflow in which ATS provides the physically based simulation backbone and explainable machine learning is used as a post-processing attribution tool. The contents are intended to support interpretation of the manuscript figures and results, provide context for how intermittency metrics were generated at multiple scales, and preserve the key artifacts needed to understand and reuse the analysis workflow. The package contains a high-level directory summary file (`summary.txt`) and four main content folders (1) `evaluation_plots` contains evaluation figures and supporting evaluation datasets; (2) `intermittency_plots` contains intermittency-focused analysis notebook and prepared datasets; (3) `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` contains ML training inputs, SHAP outputs, and figure-generation notebooks; and (4) `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` contains ATS model setup materials, forcing inputs, geometry, and selected run files. More specifically, the `evaluation_plots` folder contains the notebook used for ATS evaluation plotting and site-specific evaluation datasets. These include evapotranspiration and water-balance products for three watersheds, as well as an Oak Creek field-measurement discharge file. The `intermittency_plots` folder contains the notebook used for intermittency analysis and the prepared datasets used to analyze intermittent and non-intermittent wetness behavior across the study watersheds. The `ml-training-and-shap_values_plots` folder contains notebooks and outputs for the machine-learning and explainability workflow. This includes the main XGBoost and SHAP notebook(s), a beeswarm plotting notebook, target-feature tables for machine-learning training, SHAP summary tables, and per-sample SHAP value archives. The `watershed_mesh_and_ats_input` folder contains ATS-related watershed inputs and supporting materials. This includes mesh and shape products, ATS-readable LAI and meteorological forcing inputs, selected ATS spinup and transient-run files, and a watershed workflow example notebook. Subdirectories are organized by watershed where applicable.All files are .cpg (codepage files), .csv (comma-separated values), .dbf (database files), .exo (Exodus mesh format), .h5 (HDF5 format), .ipynb (Jupyter notebooks), .pkl (Python pickle), .prj (projection files), .sh (shell scripts), .shp (shapefile geometry), .shx (shapefile index), .txt (text files), or .xml (markup data).

Advanced Terrestrial Simulator↗

Theory and Simulation of Ultrafast Multidimensional Nonlinear X-ray Spectroscopy of Molecules (Final Report)

Emerging X-ray free electron laser (XFEL) beam sources offer new types of probes of matter with unprecedented spatial and temporal resolutions. These experimental advances must be met by robust theoretical and computational tools that provide predictive modeling capacity of the underlining electronic and structural dynamics. The latter will be essential for the design of sophisticated multi-pulse experiments and for their interpretation. The proposed research effort will focus on developing cutting- edge simulation tools for nonlinear multidimensional X-ray/optical spectroscopies and aims to address key questions in Priority Research Opportunities 1 (Probing and controlling electron motion within a molecule) and 3 (Capturing rare events and intermediate states in the transformation of matter) as mentioned in the BES Roundtable Report “Opportunities for Basic Research at the Frontiers of XFEL Ultrafast Science”. XFEL multidimensional nonlinear techniques, which combine sequences of X-ray and possibly optical pulses, provide a unique experimental toolbox for probing the dynamics of core and valence electronic excitations, as well as material structure. Predictive modeling of these dynamical processes requires the combination of analytical theory for nonlinear interactions of light and matter, robust quantum-chemical methodologies for the accurate description of electronic structure of various materials, and multiscale ab initio electron and nuclear dynamics techniques operating beyond Born-Oppenheimer approximation. These challenges will be addressed with three research thrusts (i) Develop and implement theoretical apparatus for modeling a broad range of multidimensional spectroscopic techniques enabled by present and upcoming XFEL facilities. This thrust also includes the incorporation of a computational module in the DOE supported open-source NWChem computational chemistry package as well as the development of other open-source codes ready for dissemination across a broad user base; (ii) Propose and design new multi-pulse experiments that make use of the capabilities of the incoming LCLS-II facility; (iii) Perform selected applications to specific molecular systems that can be carried out at LCLS-II and demonstrate how these X-ray sources may be used to study nonadiabatic dynamics through conical interactions, electronic correlations in multi-core excitons, and charge transfer/energy transfer processes. The proposed research will be carried out by a multi-disciplinary four-institution research team which combines academia and national laboratories and spans the broad and necessary expertise in theoretical spectroscopy, nonlinear optics, quantum chemistry, molecular non-adiabatic dynamics and code development. The work will be performed in a highly interactive team environment with junior researchers shared between institutions thus cementing cross- disciplinary interactions. The developed simulation tools will be immediately deployed for XFEL facility users, both experimentalists and theorists, via freely distributed codes and databases. Altogether, this project will facilitate establishing XFEL-based multidimensional spectroscopies as a novel diagnostic tool for monitoring electronic and structural dynamics in molecular materials.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

An Investigation of Poorly Studied Open Cluster NGC 4337 Using Multicolor Photometric and Gaia DR2 Astrometric Data

We present a comprehensive analysis (photometric and kinematical) of the poorly studied open cluster NGC 4337 using 2MASS, WISE, APASS, and Gaia DR2 databases. By determining the membership probabilities of stars, we identified the 624 most probable members with membership probability higher than 50% by using proper motion and parallax data taken from Gaia DR2. The mean proper motion of the cluster is obtained as μ{sub x}=−8.83±0.01 and μ {sub y} = 1.49 ± 0.006 mas yr{sup −1}. We find the normal interstellar extinction toward the cluster region. The radial distribution of members provides a cluster radius of 7.′75 (5.63 pc). The estimated age of 1600 ± 180 Myr indicates that NGC 4337 is an old open cluster with a bunch of red giant stars. The overall mass function slope for main-sequence stars is found as 1.46±0.18 within the mass range 0.75−2.0 M{sub ⊙}, which is in fair agreement with Salpeter’s value (x = 1.35) within uncertainty. The present study demonstrates that NGC 4337 is a dynamically relaxed open cluster. Using the Galactic potential model, Galactic orbits are obtained for NGC 4337. We found that this object follows a circular path around the Galactic center. Under the kinematical analysis, we compute the apex coordinates (A, D) by using two methods: (i) the classical convergent point method and (ii) the AD-diagram method. The obtained coordinates are (A {sub conv}, D {sub conv}) = (96.°27 ± 0.°10, 13.°14 ± 0.°27) and (A {sub ◦}, D {sub ◦}) = (100.°282 ± 0.°10, 9.°577 ± 0.°323) respectively. We also computed the Velocity Ellipsoid Parameters, matrix elements (μ {sub ij}), direction cosines (l {sub j}, m {sub j}, n {sub j}), and the Galactic longitude of the vertex (l {sub 2}).

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evolution of the SARS-CoV -2 proteome in three dimensions (3D) during the first 6 months of the COVID -19 pandemic

Understanding the molecular evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 virus as it continues to spread in communities around the globe is important for mitigation and future pandemic preparedness. Three-dimensional structures of SARS-CoV-2 proteins and those of other coronavirusess archived in the Protein Data Bank were used to analyze viral proteome evolution during the first 6 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. Analyses of spatial locations, chemical properties, and structural and energetic impacts of the observed amino acid changes in >48 000 viral isolates revealed how each one of 29 viral proteins have undergone amino acid changes. Catalytic residues in active sites and binding residues in protein–protein interfaces showed modest, but significant, numbers of substitutions, highlighting the mutational robustness of the viral proteome. Energetics calculations showed that the impact of substitutions on the thermodynamic stability of the proteome follows a universal bi-Gaussian distribution. Here detailed results are presented for potential drug discovery targets and the four structural proteins that comprise the virion, highlighting substitutions with the potential to impact protein structure, enzyme activity, and protein–protein and protein–nucleic acid interfaces. Characterizing the evolution of the virus in three dimensions provides testable insights into viral protein function and should aid in structure-based drug discovery efforts as well as the prospective identification of amino acid substitutions with potential for drug resistance.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of an accelerator-based diagnostic for plasma-facing surfaces in magnetic confinement devices

The focus of this work was the development of the Accelerator-based In-situ Material Surveillance (AIMS) diagnostic. The understanding of plasma-material interaction processes in fusion devices has been greatly hampered by the lack of ability to measure the surface ~micron layers of solid surfaces that are in contact with and greatly modified by the boundary fusion plasma. AIMS was the first diagnostic developed and deployed that allowed non-destructive surface measurements with adequate spatial and time resolution. The deployment was primarily carried out on the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. AIMS diagnostic goal is to remotely generate isotopic concentration maps on a plasma shot-to-shot timescale that cover a large fraction of the plasma-facing surface inside of a magnetic fusion device without the need for vacuum breaks or physical access to the material surfaces. The diagnostic used a compact (~ 1 m), high-current (~ 1 milliamp) radio-frequency quadrupole accelerator to inject 0.9 MeV deuterons into the Alcator C-Mod tokamak. The tokamak magnetic fields were controlled – in between plasma shots – to steer the deuterons to material surfaces where the deuterons cause high-Q nuclear reactions with low-Z isotopes up to 5 microns into the material. The induced neutrons and gamma rays are measured with scintillation detectors; energy spectra analysis provides quantitative reconstruction of surface compositions. Experimental validation showed that low-Z isotopes such as deuterium and boron can be quantified on the material surfaces, and that magnetic steering provides access to different measurement locations. AIMS measurements of D retention on inner wall PFCs were acquired during diverted and limited plasma operations and during wall conditioning experiments om Alcator C-Mod. Intershot measurements demonstrate the local erosion and co-deposition of boron films on PFC surfaces with a constant D-B ratio. This is consistent with previous results suggesting that D co-=deposition with boron is insufficient to account for the net retention observed in Alcator C-Mod. Changes in deuterium concentration during boronization, electron cyclotron and glow cleanings were also measured. These initial results were limited to studying low-Z surface properties, because the Coulomb barrier precludes nuclear reactions between high-Z elements and the ~1 MeV AIMS deuteron beam. In order to measure the high-Z erosion of interest in Alcator C-Mod and future fusion devices, a new technique using deuteron-induced gamma emission and a low-Z depth marker was developed using implanted depth markers as a method of measuring bulk erosion and redeposition. This method is dubbed DEA: Depth marker Erosion with AIMS. DEA simulations and experiments were used to validate this technique, both in the laboratory and via experiments in the EAST tokamak. Based on these results, the DEA technique, using ion beam implanted depth markers as a reference to the surface in order to monitor surfaces for erosion and redeposition, is a viable option as a diagnostic, both in and ex situ. These markers show stability to temperature, the tokamak environment, and multiple probing beams. The ex-situ (eDEA) method, which uses resonances in the cross sections of gamma producing reactions to track the surface, was used to successfully measure erosion in samples that were exposed in the EAST tokamak. The in-situ (iDEA) method, which uses the gamma yield ratio to monitor changes to the surface, was used to differentiate between markers implanted to different depths. Both techniques were successfully simulated, and both presented unique challenges experimentally and in data analysis. In particular, the eDEA probing beam was found to have energy variations leading to initial experimental uncertainty, and the iDEA gamma spectra had conflicting gamma peaks which make data analysis difficult. However, the end result is a promising framework for a diagnostic technique that supplements the abilities of AIMS and expands the possibilities of surface diagnostics in fusion devices. While the results of this work are overwhelmingly encouraging for further development of AIMS in general, and the DEA technique specifically, several areas require significant development before this diagnostic is as robust and widely applicable as a surface diagnostic ought to be. Recommended future work includes the development of a cross section/yield measurement database, erosion tests with secondary verification of results using a fiducial mark from a focused ion beam, and acquiring a new accelerator with a more reliable high energy proton and deuterium beam The project resulted in 14 publications, including the PhD theses of three MIT graduate students, cited in the included bibliography.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗