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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

WRF-ELM v1.0: a regional climate model to study land–atmosphere interactions over heterogeneous land use regions

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) is a state-of-the-art land surface model that simulates the intricate interactions between the terrestrial land surface and other components of the Earth system. Originating from the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, ELM has been under active development, with added new features and functionality, including plant hydraulics, radiation–topography interaction, subsurface multiphase flow, and more explicit land use and management practices. This study integrates ELM v2.1 with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF; WRF-ELM) model through a modified Lightweight Infrastructure for Land Atmosphere Coupling (LILAC) framework, enabling affordable high-resolution regional modeling by leveraging ELM's innovative features alongside WRF's diverse atmospheric parameterization options. This framework includes a top-level driver for variable communication between WRF and ELM and Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) caps for the WRF atmospheric component and ELM workflow control, encompassing initialization, execution, and finalization. Importantly, this LILAC–ESMF framework demonstrates a more modular approach compared to previous coupling efforts between WRF and land surface models. It maintains the integrity of ELM's source code structure and facilitates the transfer of future developments in ELM to WRF-ELM. To test the ability of the coupled model to capture land–atmosphere interactions over regions with a variety of land uses and land covers, we conducted high-resolution (4 km) WRF-ELM ensemble simulations over the Great Lakes region (GLR) in the summer of 2018 and systematically compared the results against observations, reanalysis data, and WRF-CTSM (WRF coupled with the Community Terrestrial Systems Model). In general, the coupled WRF-ELM model has reasonably captured the spatial distribution of surface state variables and fluxes across the GLR, particularly over the natural vegetation areas. The evaluation results provide a baseline reference for further improvements in ELM in the regional application of high-resolution weather and climate predictions. Our work serves as an example to the model development community for expanding an advanced land surface model's capability to represent fully-coupled land–atmosphere interactions at fine spatial scales. The development and release of WRF-ELM marks a significant advancement for the ELM user community, providing opportunities for fine-scale regional representation, parameter calibration in coupled mode, and examination of new schemes with atmospheric feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Microstructure Variability in Laser Powder Bed Fusion 316 L Stainless Steel Microstructures with Spatial Statistics

Here, we have explored data-driven methods for material microstructure quantification that improve sensitivity to microstructural changes compared to traditional approaches. The methods integrate multiple microstructural properties, including grain morphology, crystallographic orientation, and material phase information. The simpler method employs maps of the Euclidean distance transformation metric to evaluate the morphology of grain boundary networks. The more intensive approach employs generalized spherical harmonic mapping for crystallographic orientations, per-pixel phase information, and a variational auto-encoder for dimensionality reduction and results in a multidimensional clustering of by microstructure similarity. Applied to an experimental dataset of additively manufactured steel, both methods detected slight variations in samples produced under nominally identical processing conditions. Both methods were able to distinguish between samples from multiple (nominally identical) builds, while the generalized spherical harmonics-based method could additionally cluster data samples rotated at two orientations on the build plate. The improved sensitivity of the methods, demonstrated through comparison with traditional microstructure characterization techniques, offers advantages for microstructure quantification and comparisons in advanced manufacturing applications.

SS316L↗
DOE OSTI2023

Projections of Hourly Meteorology by County Based on the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulations

This dataset contains 40 years (1980-2019) of historical hourly meteorology and 80 years (2020-2099) of projected hourly meteorology for each county in the conterminous United States. Details about the scenarios and variables included in this dataset are in the readme.pdf file. This dataset is derived from the IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) simulations (https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). More details on the TGW approach can be found at: https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/. If you use this dataset please also cite the raw TGW dataset (Jones, A. D., Rastogi, D., Vahmani, P., Stansfield, A., Reed, K., Thurber, T., Ullrich, P., & Rice, J. S. (2022). IM3/HyperFACETS Thermodynamic Global Warming (TGW) Simulation Datasets (v1.0.0) [Data set]. MSD-LIVE Data Repository. https://doi.org/10.57931/1885756). The four future climate scenarios in the TGW data are: rcp45cooler, rcp45hotter, rcp85cooler, and rcp85hotter. For the historical period and each of the four future scenarios the dataset has hourly estimates of the spatial-average of six meteorological variables for each county: Temperature, specific humidity, shortwave radiation, longwave radiation, and the U (east-west) and V (north-south) components of the wind speed. Times for each file are in the filename and all times are in Coordinated Universal Time (UTC). Counties are identified by their Federal Information Processing Standard (FIPS) code. The mapping between counties and FIPS codes is provided in the state_and_county_fips_codes.csv file. The code to go from the raw TGW data to county-level projections is available at: https://github.com/IMMM-SFA/im3components/tree/main/im3components/wrf_to_tell.

County↗
DOE OSTI2024

Characterizing model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore wind over the northeast U.S. using multi-platform measurements from the TCAP field campaign

Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, are widely used to provide estimates of the offshore wind energy resource owing to their large spatial coverage compared to available observations. Nevertheless, spatiotemporal distribution of model biases is highly dependent on factors including model configuration, location, and the interplay of multi-scale physical processes. Here, in this study, we focus on the characterization of model uncertainties in simulated coast-to-offshore winds over the northeast U.S., by varying sea surface temperature (SST) forcings, surface layer (SL) and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations, as well as identifying biases that may be directly passed from initial and boundary conditions. Multiple measurements, including aircraft data collected during the U.S. Department of Energy's Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP) experiment, are used to constrain the model results and facilitate quantitative comparisons. Our analysis indicates while SST forcing has notable impacts on simulated air temperature and moisture within PBL, the modeled winds are in general more sensitive to the choices of SL and PBL physics than to SST. The model’s forcing data not only controls the vertical dependence of wind speed errors, but also alters regional variability in wind speed’s spatial correlation. Bias comparisons between ERA5 reanalysis and ensemble simulations revealed significant similarity, particularly in wind speed biases during winter, underscoring their dependency on initial and boundary conditions. Coastal and offshore near-surface wind speed biases tend to exhibit much higher similarity in winter than in summer due to the presence of much stronger and more persistent synoptic wind conditions. This study highlights the importance of accurate atmospheric forcing and parameterization choices in improving wind forecasts and suggests the potential for extrapolating coastal wind biases to offshore locations, aiding wind energy forecasting and informing the Wind Forecast Improvement Project-3 (WFIP3).

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Long-Term Trends in Aerosols, Low Clouds, and Large-Scale Meteorology Over the Western North Atlantic From 2003 to 2020

Here, a continuous decrease in aerosols over the Western North Atlantic Ocean (WNAO) on a decadal timescale provides a long-term benchmark to evaluate how various natural and anthropogenic processes affect the manifestation of aerosol-cloud interactions in this region. Furthermore, the WNAO serves as a natural laboratory with diverse aerosol sources, marine boundary layer clouds more variable than those in marine stratocumulus deck regions, and unique flow regimes established by the Gulf Stream and the semi-permanent Bermuda High. We investigate how satellite-retrieved macrophysical and microphysical properties of low clouds and the surface shortwave irradiance changed from 2003 to 2020, in tandem with this aerosol decrease. The decadal changes in large-scale meteorology related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are also examined. We find a reduction in low-cloud optical thickness, accompanied by fewer and larger cloud droplets, yet observe no significant changes in low-cloud fraction and liquid water path. Despite the reduction in low-cloud optical thickness together with aerosol decrease, a corresponding increase in the trends of surface shortwave irradiance, also known as surface brightening, is lacking. This absence of brightening is potentially related to concomitant changes found in large-scale meteorology associated with NAO—Bermuda High strengthening, sea surface warming, and atmospheric moistening— as well as an increase in high-level cloud fraction that can counteract the surface brightening. Ultimately, our findings suggest that spatial patterns of decadal meteorological variability introduce complexities in the surface cloud radiative effect over the WNAO, thereby complicating the isolation and examination of aerosol-cloud interactions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Deep Learning enabled spectral energy conversion for in situ exposure measurements

A detector-specific deep learning (DL) approach is presented for spectra-to-exposure conversion using large-format sodium iodide (NaI(Tl)) detectors deployed for in situ environmental radiation measurements in emergency response scenarios. Accurate determination of exposure from NaI spectra is challenging due to poor energy resolution, partial energy absorption, and the strong sensitivity of traditionally deployed analytical conversion methods to calibrated source geometry and pre-deployment assumptions. Here, to address these limitations, a multi-layer perceptron model was trained on a hybrid in situ /Monte Carlo dataset constructed to span a broad range of photon energies, spatial extents, and realistic deployment variability, representative of general in situ emergency response conditions. The DL model was evaluated against commonly fielded analytical approaches under matched simulation conditions, including a single-factor method, a G-function method, and a modeled pressurized ion chamber (PIC) baseline. This study was intentionally computational in scope to enable controlled, like-for-like comparisons between conversion techniques while minimizing confounding real-world variability. Comparison to the modeled PIC provides contextual benchmarking and is not intended as a field inter-comparison with deployed instruments. Across the evaluated 20 keV to 3 MeV energy range, the DL approach consistently exhibited higher accuracy and reduced variance relative to the analytical methods against a deterministically calculated exposure. This may indicate improved robustness to spectral complexity without reliance on source-, geometric-, or spectral region-specific optimization. While results do not represent real-world validation, the presented work demonstrates that deep learning may effectively learn the nonlinear detector response-to-exposure relationship for asymmetric NaI(Tl) detectors and offers a promising pathway for improving in situ exposure estimation using spectroscopic systems already integrated into initial real-time emergency response operations.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Contributions of vegetation heterogeneity within tower footprint to CO 2 flux estimations through graph neural network modeling

Net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 (Fc) measured directly by eddy covariance towers is based on various assumptions, including large, flat and homogenous land cover type. In reality, often a tower site is not large enough for flux measurements, and landscapes consist of patches of different land cover types within the flux footprint. In addition, some portions of fluxes are contributed by different cover types when a footprint exceeds the size of the target ecosystem. The contributions of non-dominant patches to Fc are often ignored. Here, in this study, we propose a novel integrated modeling framework that combines random forest (RF) and XGBoost with a residual correction module based on a deep graph convolutional network (DeeperGCN) to simulate Fc for seven flux measurement sites in southwest Michigan. High-resolution remote sensing vegetation indices, soil properties, meteorological variables, and footprint-weighted spatial features were used as model inputs at three spatial resolutions (10 m, 20 m, 30 m), and their importance in predicting Fc with DeeperGCN was assessed. We found that residual correction using DeeperGCN significantly improved prediction accuracy, with the R 2 increasing from 0.9098 to 0.9479 for RF and from 0.9235 to 0.9433 for XGBoost. At site level, the maximum improvement in R 2 reached 0.1617. Paired t-tests confirmed that these improvements were statistically significant (p < 0.05). Among all predictors, leaf area index and incoming shortwave radiation emerged as the dominant drivers of spatial residual variation, followed by precipitation, relative humidity, and selected vegetation indices. The 20 m resolution yielded the best balance between model performance and computational efficiency. In conclusion, our modeling framework effectively captures both spatial heterogeneity and nonlinear interactions, offering a robust solution for spatially explicit flux modeling in structurally diverse ecosystems beyond the study sites.

footprint model↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data initiatives for ocean-driven melt of Antarctic ice shelves

Ocean-driven melt of Antarctic ice shelves is an important control on mass loss from the ice sheet, but is complex to study due to significant variability in melt rates both spatially and temporally. Here we assess the strengths and weakness of satellite and field-based observations as tools for testing models of ice-shelf melt. We discuss how the complementary use of field, satellite and model data can be a powerful but underutilised tool for studying melt processes. Finally, we identify some community initiatives working to collate and publish coordinated melt rate datasets, which can be used in future for validating satellite-derived maps of melt and evaluating processes in numerical simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Optical Waveguiding Charge-Transfer Cocrystals: Examining the Impact of Molecular Rotations on Their Photoluminescence

Here, we present the first example of a binary optical waveguiding (OWG) cocrystal with large anisotropy featuring a fluorinated acceptor molecule (CPP-TFPN, 1) with on-plane rotational dynamics, confirmed by solid-state NMR ( 19 F T 1 ) and theoretical calculations. Spatially resolved microphotoluminescence and variable-temperature photoluminescence experiments allowed us to examine the OWG performance and photophysical properties of both single crystals and bulk microcrystalline samples. A comparison with an analogous cocrystal containing a regioisomeric acceptor (CPP-TFTN, 2) revealed that the photoluminescence characteristics of 1 are associated with the rotational motions of the acceptor, offering insights into how the molecular motion changes this property.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

On the Relationship Between Shallow Cumulus Cloud Field Properties and Surface Solar Irradiance

Abstract Shallow cumulus clouds exhibit highly three‐dimensional (3‐D) spatial structure leading to complex variability in the surface solar irradiance (SSI) beneath. This variability is captured by the typically bimodal shape of the SSI probability density function (PDF). Using large eddy simulation to generate well‐resolved cloud fields and Monte Carlo 3‐D radiative transfer to reproduce realistic associated SSI PDFs, we seek direct relationships between the cloud field properties and the SSI PDF shape. Applying both random forest and artificial neural network algorithms, we find variations in the two modes of the SSI PDF are well predicted by just a handful of cloud field properties. The two algorithms utilize cloud properties similarly, with indistinguishable performance despite their different architectures. These results offer a marked improvement in realism relative to one‐dimensional radiative transfer while bypassing computationally expensive 3‐D radiative transfer, with immediate application to renewable energy assessments, and potential for several other geophysical applications.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drivers of Decadal Carbon Fluxes Across Temperate Ecosystems

Long-running eddy covariance flux towers provide insights into how the terrestrial carbon cycle operates over multiple timescales. Here, we evaluated variation in net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) across the Chequamegon Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study AmeriFlux core site cluster in the upper Great Lakes region of the USA from 1997 to 2020. The tower network included two mature hardwood forests with differing management regimes (US-WCr and US-Syv), two fen wetlands with varying levels of canopy sheltering and vegetation (US-Los and US-ALQ), and a very tall (400 m) landscape-level tower (US-PFa). Together, they provided over 70 site-years of observations. The 19-tower Chequamegon Heterogenous Ecosystem Energy-balance Study Enabled by a High-density Extensive Array of Detectors 2019 campaign centered around US-PFa provided additional information on the spatial variation of NEE. Decadal variability was present in all long-term sites, but cross-site coherence in interannual NEE in the earlier part of the record became weaker with time as non-climatic factors such as local disturbances likely dominated flux time series. Average decadal NEE at the tall tower transitioned from carbon source to sink to near neutral over 24 years. Respiration had a greater effect than photosynthesis on driving variations in NEE at all sites. Declining snowfall offset potential increases in assimilation from warmer springs, as less-insulated soils delayed start of spring green-up. Higher CO 2 increased maximum net assimilation parameters but not total gross primary productivity. Stand-scale sites were larger net sinks than the landscape tower. Clustered, long-term carbon flux observations provide value for understanding the diverse links between carbon and climate and the challenges of upscaling these responses across space.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Non‐Intrusive Machine Learning Framework for Debiasing Long‐Time Coarse Resolution Climate Simulations and Quantifying Rare Events Statistics

Abstract Due to the rapidly changing climate, the frequency and severity of extreme weather is expected to increase over the coming decades. As fully‐resolved climate simulations remain computationally intractable, policy makers must rely on coarse‐models to quantify risk for extremes. However, coarse models suffer from inherent bias due to the ignored “sub‐grid” scales. We propose a framework to non‐intrusively debias coarse‐resolution climate predictions using neural‐network (NN) correction operators. Previous efforts have attempted to train such operators using loss functions that match statistics. However, this approach falls short with events that have longer return period than that of the training data, since the reference statistics have not converged. Here, the scope is to formulate a learning method that allows for correction of dynamics and quantification of extreme events with longer return period than the training data. The key obstacle is the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics. To overcome this challenge, we introduce a dynamical systems approach where the correction operator is trained using reference data and a coarse model simulation nudged toward that reference. The method is demonstrated on debiasing an under‐resolved quasi‐geostrophic model and the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). For the former, our method enables the quantification of events that have return period two orders longer than the training data. For the latter, when trained on 8 years of ERA5 data, our approach is able to correct the coarse E3SM output to closely reflect the 36‐year ERA5 statistics for all prognostic variables and significantly reduce their spatial biases.

Barthel Sorensen, B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound Mesoscale Convective Systems and Low‐Pressure Systems in Tropical Monsoon Regions: Assessing Their Meteorology and Precipitation

Mesoscale convective systems (MCS) and low-pressure systems (LPS) are both strongly associated with precipitation across the regions where they occur, particularly within global monsoon systems; however, their co-occurrence and its relationship to precipitation have not been systematically examined. Here, we use LPS and MCS trackers to detect compound MCS and LPS events in five monsoon regions and assess the association of this co-occurrence with anomalies of winds, precipitation, and other atmospheric variables. Additionally, we investigate the spatial distribution of precipitating MCS and LPS events. Our results show that most (∼60%) MCS and LPS co-occurrences are located in the lower latitudes, where they contribute up to 40% of annual precipitation. We find that compound events generally produce more extreme precipitation than MCS-only or LPS-only events. Furthermore, our assessment of the synoptic and mesoscale composites reveals that the underlying dynamics of compound events exhibit anomalously positive convective available potential energy and an anomalously low-pressure within the location of the event. In terms of the synoptic environment of the features, the compound MCS and LPS events are associated with inverted troughs in three out of five monsoon locations assessed.

Environmental sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis techniques for blob properties from gas puff imaging data

Filamentary structures, also known as blobs, are a prominent feature of turbulence and transport at the edge of magnetically confined plasmas. They cause cross-field particle and energy transport and are, therefore, of interest in tokamak physics and, more generally, nuclear fusion research. Several experimental techniques have been developed to study their properties. Among these, measurements are routinely performed with stationary probes, passive imaging, and, in more recent years, Gas Puff Imaging (GPI). In this work, we present different analysis techniques developed and used on 2D data from the suite of GPI diagnostics in the Tokamak à Configuration Variable, featuring different temporal and spatial resolutions. Although specifically developed to be used on GPI data, these techniques can be employed to analyze 2D turbulence data presenting intermittent, coherent structures. We focus on size, velocity, and appearance frequency evaluation with, among other methods, conditional averaging sampling, individual structure tracking, and a recently developed machine learning algorithm. We describe in detail the implementation of these techniques, compare them against each other, and comment on the scenarios to which these techniques are best applied and on the requirements that the data must fulfill in order to yield meaningful results.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Epigenetic drift underlies epigenetic clock signals, but displays distinct responses to lifespan interventions, development, and cellular dedifferentiation

Changes in DNA methylation with age are observed across the tree of life. The stereotypical nature of these changes can be modeled to produce epigenetic clocks capable of predicting chronological age with unprecedented accuracy. Despite the predictive ability of epigenetic clocks and their utility as biomarkers in clinical applications, the underlying processes that produce clock signals are not fully resolved, which limits their interpretability. Here, we develop a computational approach to spatially resolve the within read variability or “disorder” in DNA methylation patterns and test if age-associated changes in DNA methylation disorder underlie signals comprising epigenetic clocks. We find that epigenetic clock loci are enriched in regions that both accumulate and lose disorder with age, suggesting a link between DNA methylation disorder and epigenetic clocks. We then develop epigenetic clocks that are based on regional disorder of DNA methylation patterns and compare their performance to other epigenetic clocks by investigating the influences of development, lifespan interventions, and cellular dedifferentiation. We identify common responses as well as critical differences between canonical epigenetic clocks and those based on regional disorder, demonstrating a fundamental decoupling of epigenetic aging processes. Collectively, we identify key linkages between epigenetic disorder and epigenetic clocks and demonstrate the multifaceted nature of epigenetic aging in which stochastic processes occurring at non-random loci produce predictable outcomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing individual movement, habitat use, and behavior of non-breeding marine birds in relation to prey availability in the US Atlantic

Resource availability is a key factor driving marine bird movements and distributions, but direct information on prey availability is difficult to obtain at relevant scales. We present novel methods for describing multi-scale trophic associations, combining movement analyses of marine birds with estimates of forage fish surface aggregations from digital aerial survey data and species occupancy from bottom trawl survey data. We analyzed satellite telemetry data from northern gannets Morus bassanus , red-throated loons Gavia stellata , and long-tailed ducks Clangula hyemalis in the US Atlantic during the non-breeding period. Using discrete-time hidden Markov models to distinguish area-restricted (i.e. putative foraging) from transit movements, we examined how environmental factors influence movement, and how forage fish species distributions and surface aggregations influence habitat use by gannets and loons that have greater dietary reliance. Our results suggest that chlorophyll a concentration significantly affected movement behavior across species, highlighting the importance of higher-productivity areas around estuaries during colder months when regional productivity is low. Though variable across species and seasons, spatial cross-correlation analysis revealed that herring species (Family Clupeidae), including Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus , may be important resources; it also showed positive spatial correlations with forage fish aggregations. This suggests that prey patch dynamics and factors driving aggregation formation may be as important as species composition. However, spatial patterns were generally low (<0.3), suggesting a mismatch in spatiotemporal resolution, exemplifying the challenges in quantifying trophic relationships in marine systems. Disentangling predator-prey relationships is critical to understanding the mechanisms driving marine bird behavior in rapidly changing marine systems.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Interpreting machine learning prediction of fire emissions and comparison with FireMIP process-based models

Annual burned areas in the United States have increased 2-fold during the past decades. With more large fires resulting in more emissions of fine particulate matter, an accurate prediction of fire emissions is critical for quantifying the impacts of fires on air quality, human health, and climate. This study aims to construct a machine learning (ML) model with game-theory interpretation to predict monthly fire emissions over the contiguous US (CONUS) and to understand the controlling factors of fire emissions. The optimized ML model is used to diagnose the process-based models in the Fire Modeling Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) to inform future development. Results show promising performance for the ML model, Community Land Model (CLM), and Joint UK Land Environment Simulator-Interactive Fire And Emission Algorithm For Natural Environments (JULES-INFERNO) in reproducing the spatial distributions, seasonality, and interannual variability of fire emissions over the CONUS. Regional analysis shows that only the ML model and CLM simulate the realistic interannual variability of fire emissions for most of the subregions (r >0.95 for ML and r =0.14~0.70 for CLM), except for Mediterranean California, where all the models perform poorly (r =0.74 for ML and r <0.30 for the FireMIP models). Regarding seasonality, most models capture the peak emission in July over the western US. However, all models except for the ML model fail to reproduce the bimodal peaks in July and October over Mediterranean California, which may be explained by the smaller wind speeds of the atmospheric forcing data during Santa Ana wind events and limitations in model parameterizations for capturing the effects of Santa Ana winds on fire activity. Furthermore, most models struggle to capture the spring peak in emissions in the southeastern US, probably due to underrepresentation of human effects and the influences of winter dryness on fires in the models. As for extreme events, both the ML model and CLM successfully reproduce the frequency map of extreme emission occurrence but overestimate the number of months with extremely large fire emissions. Comparing the fire PM 2.5 emissions from the ML model with process-based fire models highlights their strengths and uncertainties for regional analysis and prediction and provides useful insights into future directions for model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw: Modeling Archive

This Modeling Archive is in support of a NGEE Arctic publication in review "Drying of tundra landscapes will limit subsidence-induced acceleration of permafrost thaw". The study used a cryohydrology model to assess the potential risk of abrupt permafrost thaw triggered by melting ground ice, a key open question associated with permafrost response to a warming Arctic. The spatially resolved simulations are for a small catchment 465 ice-wedge polygons in polygonal tundra near Utqiagvik, Alaska in the high-emissions RCP8.5 climate scenario. The simulations are compared to runoff, evapotranspiration and subsidence in the current climate and agree well. The study used the ATS code configured as an intermediate-scale cryohydrology model (Advanced Terrestrial Simulator, Version v2). The archive includes input files for spinup (1985 to 2005) and projections (2006 to 2100 - the manuscript reports 2006 to 2098). Three of the projections include the effects of subsidence and microtopography change with different depth profiles of ice content corresponding to the median, 20th percentile and 80th percentile. The fourth projection has subsidence turnoff and uses the reference case (median) ice content. Spatially averaged or aggregated output variables are included for the projections. Selected checkpoint files for the projections and postprocessing scripts are also included. Files included are *.xml; *.h5; *.exo; *.py; *.sh, *. nb, mesh files, and one file in the original Excel format plus *.csv and *.pdf to conserve formatting contained in the original file. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗