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DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Demand Control Ventilation

This documentation focuses on a single end-use savings shape measure - Demand Control Ventilation (DCV). DCV can save energy by reducing the rate at which outdoor air (OA) is delivered during periods of less-than-design occupancy. This measure will enable DCV for air loops using applicable HVAC system types (all except dedicated outdoor air systems [DOAS], packaged systems, or that have an energy recovery ventilator [ERV]) and serving applicable space types (all except kitchens, dining areas, patient spaces, mechanical rooms, stairwells and corridors, or high exhaust space types) using model occupancy schedules to control the DCV. The measure is applicable to 72.7% of the stock floor area. As office buildings outside of California in ComStock are modeled using a single, whole-building space type, DCV is not applied to these building types. The DCV measure demonstrates 2.6% total site energy savings (119 trillion British thermal units [TBtu]) for the U.S. commercial building stock modeled in ComStock.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Measure Documentation: Economizers

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock™ and ComStock™ models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) measures. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility measure applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: Wall and Roof Insulation and New Windows

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Window Replacement, Exterior Wall Insulation, and Roof Insulation, which we will refer to collectively as the "High Efficiency Envelope" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

End-Use Savings Shapes Upgrade Package Documentation: LED Lighting, HP-RTU and ASHP-Boiler

Building on the successfully completed effort to calibrate and validate the U.S. Department of Energy's ResStock and ComStock models over the past 3 years, the objective of this work is to produce national data sets that empower analysts working for federal, state, utility, city, and manufacturer stakeholders to answer a broad range of analysis questions. The goal of this work is to develop energy efficiency, electrification, and demand flexibility end-use load shapes (electricity, gas, propane, or fuel oil) that cover a majority of the high-impact, market-ready (or nearly market-ready) upgrade measures, or upgrades. "Measures" refers to energy efficiency variables that can be applied to buildings during modeling. An end-use savings shape is the difference in energy consumption between a baseline building and a building with an energy efficiency, electrification, or demand flexibility upgrade applied. It results in a time-series profile that is broken down by end use and fuel (electricity or on-site gas, propane, or fuel oil use) at each time step. ComStock is a highly granular, bottom-up model that uses multiple data sources, statistical sampling methods, and advanced building energy simulations to estimate the annual subhourly energy consumption of the commercial building stock across the United States. The baseline model intends to represent the U.S. commercial building stock as it existed in 2018. The methodology and results of the baseline model are discussed in the final technical report of the End-Use Load Profiles project. This documentation focuses on an upgrade package of three end-use savings shapes upgrades - Light Emitting Diode (LED) Lighting, Heat Pump Rooftop Unit (RTU) (HP-RTU), and Air-Source Heat Pump (ASHP) Boiler, which we will refer to collectively as the "Interior Lighting and Heat Pump" package. More details on the individual upgrades can be found on the ComStock Measures Documentation page. An upgrade package applies two or more EUSS upgrades to a single building model simulation. Since ComStock is a bottom-up physics-based model, an upgrade package will go beyond aggregating or summing the individual upgrade results and produce novel results by simulating interactions between the upgrades. For example, pairing an envelope upgrade with an electrification upgrade would likely result in higher savings results than the sum of these upgrades individually, and the size of the heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment may be reduced if the envelope upgrade reduces the loads significantly.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Home Energy Upgrades as a Pathway to Home Decarbonization in the US: A Literature Review

This work aims to characterize how home energy upgrade projects and programs in the US have evolved over the past decade. It also identifies what changes are needed to drive expansion of the US energy retrofit market in such a way that addresses carbon emissions from buildings, improves resilience and upgrades the housing stock. This review focuses on whole-home energy upgrades, targeting deep energy retrofit savings of >30%. The topics we cover include trends in home electrification, US and European home energy upgrade programs, energy upgrade measure costs, business economics, and health effects. Key changes in project design noted in this review include: (1) the electrification of dwellings with rapidly improving heat pump systems and low-cost solar photovoltaic technology; and (2) a shift away from high-cost building envelope strategies and towards more traditional home performance/weatherization envelope upgrades. Promising program design strategies covered include: (1) end-use electrification programs; (2) novel financing approaches; (3) the use of carbon-based program and project metrics; and (4) “one-stop shop” programs. Based on the existing market barriers, we suggest that the industry should adopt new project performance metrics. Additionally, market drivers are needed to spur widespread energy upgrades in the US housing stock. Costs must be reduced, and projects designed to appeal to homeowners and contractors.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicted annual biomass input to maintain soil organic carbon under contrasting management

Corn (Zea mays L.) residue is an important source of lignocellulosic feedstocks for meeting the US renewable energy goals. However, there is uncertainty in how much biomass can be sustainably harvested. The objectives of this study were to (i) simulate soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics in the 0–20, 20–30, and 0–30 cm soil depths for the 2005–2015 study period using CQESTR, a process-based C model; (ii) establish trends in SOC with residue removal and tillage management over the predictive period of 2016–2035; and (iii) recommend practices to maintain SOC stocks in a corn–soybean (Glycine max L. [Merr.]) rotation with corn residue removal in western Minnesota. The residue removal treatments in the conventional tillage since 1995 (CT 95 ) and no tillage since 1995 (NT 95 ) were initiated in 2005, and in 2006 for the no tillage since 2005 (NT 05 ). Corn residue removal treatments were none, cob removal, ~50% removal, and ~75% removal (R0, RCob, R50, and R75, respectively). Only R0 in NT 05 increased SOC (0.32 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 ) stocks in the top 30 cm soil depth by 2035 with annual aboveground biomass input of 6.30 Mg ha –1 yr –1 . It was concluded that only the NT 05 field has the potential to maintain SOC at the current rate of biomass addition, and a minimal annual aboveground C (MSC) input of 3.75 Mg C ha –1 yr –1 is required to maintain SOC until 2035. These simulation results indicate that caution should be used in removing residue especially under conventional tillage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The climate change mitigation potential of annual grasslands under future climates

Abstract Composted manure and green waste amendments have been shown to increase net carbon (C) sequestration in rangeland soils and have been proposed as a means to help lower atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. However, the effect of climate change on soil organic C (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in rangelands is not well understood, and the viability of climate change mitigation strategies under future conditions is even less certain. We used a process‐based biogeochemical model (DayCent) at a daily time step to explore the long‐term effects of potential future climate changes on C and greenhouse gas dynamics in annual grassland ecosystems. We then used the model to explore how the same ecosystems might respond to climate change following compost amendments to soils and determined the long‐term viability of net SOC sequestration under changing climates. We simulated net primary productivity (NPP), SOC, and greenhouse gas fluxes across seven California annual grasslands with and without compost amendments. We drove the DayCent simulations with field data and with site‐specific daily climate data from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM‐ES) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100. NPP and SOC stocks in unamended and amended ecosystems were surprisingly insensitive to projected climate changes. A one‐time amendment of compost to rangeland acted as a slow‐release organic fertilizer and increased NPP by up to 390–814 kg C ha −1 year −1 across sites. The amendment effect on NPP was not sensitive to Earth system model or emissions scenario and endured through the end of the century. Net SOC sequestration amounted to 1.96 ± 0.02 Mg C ha −1 relative to unamended soils at the maximum amendment effect. Averaged across sites and scenarios, SOC sequestration peaked 22 ± 1 years after amendment and declined but remained positive throughout the century. Though compost stimulated nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions, the cumulative net emissions (in CO 2 equivalents) due to compost were far less than the amount of SOC sequestered. Compost amendments resulted in a net climate benefit of 69.6 ± 0.5 Tg CO 2 e 20 ± 1 years after amendment if applied to similar ecosystems across the state, amounting to 39% of California's rangeland. These results suggest that the biogeochemical benefits of a single amendment of compost to rangelands in California are insensitive to climate change and could contribute to decadal‐scale climate change mitigation goals alongside emissions reductions.

Mayer, Allegra↗
DOE OSTI2024

Restoring freshwater habitat mosaics to promote resilience of vulnerable salmon populations

Phenotypic diversity and abundance drive salmon resilience in the face of increasing environmental variability. But what happens when human activities fundamentally alter the habitat complexity that drives this diversity? And how can we restore habitats to recover both diversity and abundance to support salmon persistence in a warming climate? Here, we looked at the impact of a large watershed restoration effort on the abundance and climate resilience of the three remaining core natural spring-run Chinook Salmon populations in the California Central Valley (Butte, Mill, and Deer Creek). Butte Creek fish, which have floodplain access, had higher overall productivity and faster juvenile growth compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, and the proportion of floodplain inundation was positively correlated with Butte Creek adult abundance two years later. While Butte Creek exhibited significant increases in abundance post-restoration (~2000%), it generally exhibited lower phenotypic diversity and only a marginal increase in population stability after restoration based on the coefficient of variation (CV). In particular, Butte Creek salmon tended to exhibit larger drops in escapement following dry years (e.g., return years 2010, 2017) compared with Mill and Deer Creek populations, presumably due to limited inundation of its downstream floodplain. The late-migrating juvenile strategy (i.e., yearling), which disproportionately supported Mill and Deer Creek populations during droughts, was uncommon among Butte Creek adults (averaging 60% of returns for Mill and Deer Creek vs. 0.3% for Butte Creek). Increased spring-run stock complex stability was found, post-restoration, when combining the three spring-run populations (i.e., lower aggregate CV). However, among-river pairwise correlations also suggested increased synchronization in population abundances post-restoration, potentially due to increasing frequency and severity of extreme climatic events (e.g., droughts and ocean warming). This study underscores the importance of restoring a connected mosaic of aquatic habitats across modified landscapes, such as cold water refugia and floodplains, to preserve multiple (across-population) life history pathways for increasing salmon stock complex stability and abundance. These landscape-scale process-based habitat restoration efforts are likely to be crucial for the successful long-term recovery of vulnerable species in a rapidly changing climate.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

Passage and survival of juvenile salmonid smolts through dams in the Columbia and Snake Rivers, 2010-2018

Minimizing the mortality and migration time of juvenile salmon (smolts) passing dams is a longstanding objective in the pursuit of salmon recovery in the Columbia River Basin. We compiled and analyzed 40 juvenile salmonid acoustic-tag studies that were performed at seven of the eight hydroelectric projects in the Federal Columbia River Power System between 2010–2018. We found the utilization of non-turbine routes decreased monotonically moving downstream from the Snake River to the mainstem Columbia River and that route usage and associated mortality differed substantially between the dams in the two rivers. Spillways were the predominant passage route at mainstem Columbia River dams, whereas passage through surface weirs and juvenile bypass systems was more common and generally provided higher survival at Snake River dams. Stocks exhibited variable passage behaviors and mortalities, with the estimated probability of an individual passing through all eight dams in the system and never using a turbine route at 0.31, 0.47, and 0.60 for subyearling Chinook Salmon, yearling Chinook Salmon, and steelhead, respectively. Although subyearling Chinook Salmon were generally more likely to pass through a turbine route, they also experienced less turbine-associated mortality than other stocks, especially steelhead. Notably, the proportion of smolts passing through the spillway relative to the amount of water released was lowest at Bonneville Dam, the largest and lowermost dam in the system. Bonneville Dam also stood out as having the highest proportion of smolts passing through turbines, but the lowest rate of turbine-associated mortality.

Skalski, J R.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Long‐term changes in soil carbon and nitrogen fractions in switchgrass, native grasses, and no‐till corn bioenergy production systems

Cellulosic bioenergy is a primary land-based climate mitigation strategy, with soil carbon (C) storage and nitrogen (N) conservation as important mitigation elements. Here, we present 13 years of soil C and N change under three cellulosic cropping systems: monoculture switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a five native grasses polyculture, and no-till corn (Zea mays L.). Soil C and N fractions were measured four times over 12 years. Bulk soil C in the 0–25 cm depth at the end of the study period ranged from 28.4 (± 1.4 se) Mg C ha −1 in no-till corn, to 30.8 (± 1.4) Mg C ha −1 in switchgrass, and to 34.8 (± 1.4) Mg C ha −1 in native grasses. Mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) ranged from 60% to 90% and particulate organic matter (POM) from 10% to 40% of total soil C. Over 12 years, total C as well as both C fractions persisted under no-till corn and switchgrass and increased under native grasses. In contrast, POM N stocks decreased 33% to 45% across systems, whereas MAOM N decreased only in no-till corn and by less than 13%. Declining POM N stocks likely reflect pre-establishment land use, which included alfalfa and manure in earlier rotations. Root production and large soil aggregate formation explained 69% (p < 0.001) and 36% (p = 0.024) of total soil C change, respectively, and 60% (p = 0.020) and 41% (p = 0.023) of soil N change, demonstrating the importance of belowground productivity and soil aggregates for producing and protecting soil C and conserving soil N. Differences between switchgrass and native grasses also indicate a dependence on plant diversity. Soil C and N benefits of bioenergy crops depend strongly on root productivity and pre-establishment land use.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Root Characteristics Vary with Depth Across Four Lowland Seasonal Tropical Forests

Fine roots are key to ecosystem-scale nutrient, carbon (C), and water cycling, yet our understanding of fine root trait variation within and among tropical forests, one of Earth’s most C-rich ecosystems, is limited. We characterized root biomass, morphology, nutrient content, and arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal (AMF) colonization to 1.2 m depths across four distinct lowland Panamanian forests, and related root characteristics to soil C stocks. We hypothesized that: (H1) Fine root characteristics vary consistently with depth across seasonal tropical forests, with deeper roots exhibiting more exploratory traits, such as for deep water acquisition; (H2) fine root characteristics vary among tropical forests mainly in surface soils, where resource availability also varies. Here we found consistent variation with depth across the four forests, including decreased root biomass, root tissue density, and AMF, and increased specific root length. Among the forests, there was variation in some fine root characteristics, including greater surface root biomass and lower SRL in the wettest forest, and smaller fine root diameter in the driest forest. We also found that root characteristics were related to total soil C stocks, which were positively related to root biomass and negatively related to specific root length. These results indicate emergent properties of root variation with depth across tropical forests, and show site-scale variation in surface root characteristics. Future work could explore the flexibility in root characteristics under changing conditions such as drought.

13C NMR↗
DOE OSTI2023

Experimentally simulated sea level rise destabilizes carbon-mineral associations in temperate tidal marsh soil

How sea level rise (SLR) alters carbon (C) dynamics in tidal salt marsh soils is unresolved. Changes in hydrodynamics could influence organo-mineral associations, influencing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) fluxes. As SLR increases the duration of inundation, we hypothesize that lateral DOC export will increase due to reductive dissolution of C-bearing iron (Fe) oxides, destabilizing soil C stocks and influencing greenhouse gas emissions. To test this, soil cores (0–8 cm depth) were collected from the high marsh of a temperate salt marsh that currently experiences changes in water level and soil redox oscillation due to spring-neap tides. Mesocosms experimentally simulated SLR by continuously inundating high marsh soils and were compared to mesocosms with Control conditions, where the water level oscillated on a spring-neap cycle. Porewater DOC, lateral DOC, and porewater reduced Fe (Fe 2+ ) concentrations were significantly higher in SLR treatments (1.7 ± 0.5 mM, 0.63 ± 0.14 mM, and 0.15 ± 0.11 mM, respectively) than Control treatments (1.2 ± 0.35 mM, 0.56 ± 0.15 mM, and 0.08 ± 01 mM, respectively Solid phase analysis with Fe extended X-ray absorption fine-structure spectroscopy further revealed that SLR led to > 3 times less Fe oxide-C coprecipitates than Control conditions In addition, the overall global warming potential (GWP) decreased under SLR due to suppressed CO 2 emissions. Our data suggest that SLR may increase lateral C export of current C stocks by dissolving C-bearing Fe oxides but decrease the overall GWP from emissions of soil trace gases. Finally, these findings have implications for understanding the fate of SOC dynamics under future SLR scenarios.

dissolved organic carbon↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deployment of plug-in electric vehicles in China and the USA: issues and opportunities, foreword

Plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), including battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), have been promoted globally for their emission reductions and energy conservation. In addition to financial incentives for PEVs in many countries (Stephens et al. 2018), emission and energy regulatory systems provide additional incentives for PEVs in the USA, Europe, and China (European Union 2014; Innovation Center for Energy and Transportation 2019; U.S. EPA and NHTSA 2012). These incentives, together with PEV technology advances and cost reductions, have caused PEV sales to grow exponentially in many countries and global regions; PEV stocks totaled more than 5 million by the end of 2018 (Fig. 1). The International Energy Agency (2019) projects that PEV sales will grow even more quickly through 2030 to reach a total global PEV stock of 130 million to 250 million.

China↗
DOE OSTI2024

Storage and persistence of organic carbon in the upper three meters of soil under arable and native prairie land use

Aims: Land use change from native grasslands to arable lands globally impacts soil ecosystem functions, including the storage of soil organic carbon (SOC). Understanding the factors affecting SOC changes in topsoil and subsoil due to land use is crucial for effective mitigation strategies. We determined SOC storage and persistence as affected by land use change from native prairies to arable lands. Methods: Here we examined SOC stocks, soil δ 13 C and Δ 14 C signatures, microbial communities (bacteria and fungi), and soil mineral characteristics under native prairies and long-term arable lands (i.e., > 40 years) down to 3 m in the U.S. Midwest. Results: Native prairie soils had higher SOC stocks in the A horizon and 0–50 cm depth increment than arable soils. For both land use types, the δ 13 C and Δ 14 C values significantly decreased with depth, with the latter pointing towards highly stabilized SOC, especially in the B- and C-horizons. Analysis of the microbial communities indicated that the diversity of bacteria and fungi decreased with increasing soil depth. The content of oxalate soluble Al appeared to be the single most important predictor of SOC across horizons and land use types. Conclusion: Our data suggest that most SOC gains and losses and transformation and translocation processes seem to be restricted to the uppermost 50 cm. Increasing SOC retention in the A and B horizons within the 0–50 cm depth would enhance organic material serving as substrate and nutrients for microbes and plants (A horizon) and facilitate long-term SOC storage in the subsoil (B horizon).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Impact of installation faults in air conditioners and heat pumps in single-family homes on U.S. energy usage

To ensure that new residential air conditioners and heat pumps operate optimally, care must be taken during the initial system design and installation to avoid missteps that immediately degrade a system’s performance. Laboratory and simulation studies have quantified the impact that faults can have on capacity and efficiency. Field studies have demonstrated that installation-related faults are commonplace. However, the national impact of installation-related faults cannot be accurately estimated by only simulating a limited number of homes at several fault levels because of the variety of home characteristics and climates involved. In our analysis, we use an improved residential building stock simulation tool to predict the annual energy increase and additional utility costs resulting from two common installation faults: indoor airflow rate and refrigerant charge level. Our method considers the wide range of building characteristics and climate zones of the U.S. housing stock. We use existing field data to develop fault intensity probability distributions to inform our analysis. The study shows that these two faults result in approximately 20.7 TWh/y of additional energy use for central air conditioners and air-source heat pumps in U.S. single-family detached homes, which is a 9% increase over baseline (no-fault) usage, costing homeowners approximately $2.5 billion annually on utility bills. Air-source heat pumps are responsible for a disproportionate fraction of this energy use increase because of the larger number of operating hours compared to central air conditioners and the sensitivity of heating mode performance to the faults analyzed compared to cooling mode.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction

Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.

AMI data↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing first- and second-generation bioethanol by-products from sugarcane: Impact on soil carbon and nitrogen dynamics

The first- and second-generation bioethanol by-products (bagasse and fermentation by-product, respectively) have different biochemical characteristics relating to carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) due to their production processes. To examine the impacts of fermentation by-product and bagasse on soil C and N dynamics, a 120 day laboratory incubation experiment was conducted by applying these amendments in soil at an equal carbon application rate (2.2 g C kg -1 soil). There was a significant increase in overall cumulative CO 2 -C production from amended soil compared to the control soil, though the loss was greatest in bagasse amended soil. However, δ13C-CO 2 measurements suggested that fermentation by-product addition suppressed native soil C mineralization and prompted strong negative C priming (-57%). In contrast, bagasse amendment maintained similar native soil C mineralization to control soil. Decreased microbial biomass turnover time appears to be the major driving force for increased CO 2 -C production and soil C loss following bioethanol by-product amendments. Increased mineral N production indicated net N mineralization after fermentation by-product addition, while addition of bagasse resulted in lower N availability and N immobilization. Overall, results suggested that fermentation by-product application is advantageous in maintaining native soil C stock and N mineralization compared to bagasse. Thus, in a sustainable second-generation bioethanol production system, bagasse may be used for second-generation bioethanol production and the cogenerated by-product could be used as an amendment to improve soil C stock and N availability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifying spatial and vertical variations in soil C:N relationships in permafrost-affected landscapes

Permafrost regions are experiencing rapid changes that affect carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles, with implications for vegetation dynamics and gas exchanges with the atmosphere. Soil C:N ratio is a key indicator of organic matter quality, yet spatial estimates of N stocks and C:N ratios lag behind those for C. We used quantile regression forests to compare direct and indirect digital soil mapping approaches for predicting soil C:N ratios at 0–30, 30–60, and 60–100 cm depths across a latitudinal transect in Alaska. The indirect approach – deriving C:N from separately predicted C and N stocks – outperformed direct mapping for the surface layer (0–30 cm), while direct mapping was marginally better at greater depths. However, prediction accuracy decreased with depth for both methods. Temperature and topography were the most important predictors. Both approaches overestimated low and underestimated high C:N ratios, with direct mapping showing greater bias. Our results underscore the challenges of modeling C:N ratios in heterogeneous, data-sparse permafrost soils, but also suggest that indirect mapping holds promise if supported by more extensive datasets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗