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The winter anomaly in the winter of 1982/83 is compared with the winter anomalies of earlier winters (1960-82) from the point of view of amplitude and timing of the winter anomaly, and geomagnetic and dynamic activity influences. Some evidence of a negative influence of sudden stratospheric warnings on the winter anomaly is given.
The formation and evolution of the polar laminated terrain depends on rates of dust transport to the polar caps. A simplified dynamical model is shown similar to models used to simulate terrestrial stratospheric polar warmings could simulate certain observed features of the circulation during Martian global dust storms. Model simulations of dust transport showed that substantial quantities of dust, enough to produce optical depths of approx. 1, could reach the pole during these storms.
We present a trajectory technique, contour advection with surgery (CAS), for tracing the evolution of material contours in a specified (including observed) evolving flow. CAS uses the algorithms developed by Dritschel for contour dynamics/surgery to trace the evolution of specified contours. The contours are represented by a series of particles, which are advected by a specified, gridded, wind distribution. The resolution of the contours is preserved by continually adjusting the number of particles, and finescale features are produced that are not present in the input data (and cannot easily be generated using standard trajectory techniques). The reliability, and dependence on the spatial and temporal resolution of the wind field, of the CAS procedure is examined by comparisons with high-resolution numerical data (from contour dynamics calculations and from a general circulation model), and with routine stratospheric analyses. These comparisons show that the large-scale motions dominate the deformation field and that CAS can accurately reproduce small scales from low-resolution wind fields. The CAS technique therefore enables examination of atmospheric tracer transport at previously unattainable resolution.
At the NASA Goddard Data Assimilation Office (DAO), a 1D variational radiance assimilation system has been developed. This system, called DAOTOVS (Tiros operational vertical sounder (TOVS)), uses (A)TOVS level 1b radiances. It has been implemented within the DAO's semi-operational system as well as within the next generation data assimilation system that uses a finite-volume dynamical core. We will show results from (A)TOVS assimilation, including stratospheric analyses and validation. We will also describe our systematic error correction scheme which is based on collocated radiosondes.
The Limb Infrared Monitor of the Stratosphere (LIMS) measured polar stratospheric enhancements of NO2 mixing ratios due to energetic particle precipitation (EPP) in the Arctic winter of 1978-1979. Recently reprocessed LIMS data are compared to more recent measurements from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) and the Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment Fourier transform spectrometer (ACE-FTS) to place the LIMS measurements in the context of current observations. The amount of NOx (NO + NO2) entering the stratosphere that has been created by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (EPP-NOx) has been quantified for the 1978-1979 and 2002-2003 through 2008-2009 Arctic winters. The NO2 enhancements in the LIMS data are similar to those in MIPAS and ACE-FTS data in the Arctic winters of 2002-2003, 2004-2005, 2006-2007, and 2007-2008. The largest enhancement by far is in 2003-2004 (approximately 2.2 Gmol at 1500 K), which is attributed to a combination of elevated EPP and unusual dynamics that led to strong descent in the upper stratosphere/lower mesosphere in late winter. The enhancements in 2005-2006 and 2008-2009, during which large stratospheric NOx enhancements were caused by a dynamical situation similar to that in 2003 2004, are larger than in all the other years (except 2003-2004) at 3000 K. However, by 2000 K the enhancements in 2005-2006 (2008-2009) are on the same order of magnitude as (smaller than) all other years. These results highlight the importance of the timing of the descent in determining the potential of EPP-NOx for reaching the middle stratosphere.
The US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been monitoring the ozone layer from space using optical remote sensing techniques since 1970. With concern over catalytic destruction of ozone (mid-1970s) and the development of the Antarctic ozone hole (mid-1980s), long term ozone monitoring has become the primary focus of NASA's series of ozone measuring instruments. A series of TOMS (Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer) and SBUV (Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet) instruments has produced a nearly continuous record of global ozone from 1979 to the present. These instruments infer ozone by measuring sunlight backscattered from the atmosphere in the ultraviolet through differential absorption. These measurements have documented a 15 Dobson Unit drop in global average ozone since 1980, and the declines in ozone in the antarctic each October have been far more dramatic. Instruments that measure the ozone vertical distribution, the SBUV and SAGE (Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment) instruments for example, show that the largest changes are occurring in the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere. The goal of ozone measurement in the next decades will be to document the predicted recovery of the ozone layer as CFC (chlorofluorocarbon) levels decline. This will require a continuation of global measurements of total column ozone on a global basis, but using data from successor instruments to TOMS. Hyperspectral instruments capable of measuring in the UV will be needed for this purpose. Establishing the relative roles of chemistry and dynamics will require instruments to measure ozone in the troposphere and in the stratosphere with good vertical resolution. Instruments that can measure other chemicals important to ozone formation and destruction will also be needed.
Our research focused on Kelvin waves in the tropical lower stratosphere, and resulted in three papers published or submitted to the Journal of Geophysical Research. The first of these, published in 2002, used temperature data from the Microwave Limb Sounder to examine the amplitude, frequency, phase, and spatial structure of leading modes of Kelvin waves. The second and third, submitted late in 2002 and currently in revision, described the response to Kelvin waves of various trace constituents measured by MLS and CLAES (methane, nitrous oxide, CFC-12, and ozone in the second paper; water vapor in the third paper). Water vapor is a special case because the vertical structure induced by Kelvin waves is convolved with water vapor's seasonally varying vertical profile induced by seasonal variations in temperature at the tropical tropopause. Forward modeling indicated that the vertical resolution of MLS was indeed adequate to capture this complicated structure, yet it was not visible in the MLS data, though the Kelvin wave signature was clear on certain UARS levels. The effects of Kelvin waves on the tropical tropopause and on stratosphere- troposphere exchange cannot be quantified from UARS data because of poor vertical resolution and sensitivity in that region. It is recommended that this analysis be repeated using data from the new MLS and HIRDLS instruments aboard Aura, and that priority be given to fine-scale retrievals of temperature, water vapor, and ozone in the tropical tropopause region.
Extensive measurement campaigns by the NASA ER-2 research aircraft have obtained a nearly pole-to-pole database of the species that control HOx (OH + HO2) chemistry. The wide dynamic range of these in situ measurements provides an opportunity to demonstrate empirically the mechanisms that control the HOx system. Measurements in the lower stratosphere show a remarkably tight correlation of OH concentration with the solar zenith angle (SZA). This correlation is nearly invariant over latitudes ranging from 70 S to 90 N and all seasons. An analysis of the production and loss of HOx in terms of the rate determining steps of reaction sequences developed by Johnston and Podolske and Johnston and Kinnison is used to clarify the behavior of the system and to directly test our understanding of the system with observations. Calculations using in situ measurements show that the production rate of HOx is proportional to O3 and ultraviolet radiation flux. The loss rate is proportional to the concentration and the partitioning of NOy (reactive nitrogen) and the concentration of HO2. In the absence of heterogeneous reactions, the partitioning of NOy is controlled by O3 and NOx and the concentration of HO2 is controlled by NOy and O3, so that the removal rate of OH is buffered against changes in the correlation of O3 and NOy. The heterogeneous conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is not an important net source of HO, because production and removal sequences are nearly balanced. Changes in NOy partitioning resulting from heterogeneous chemistry have a large effect on the loss rates of HOx, but little or no impact on the measured abundance of OH. The enhanced loss rates at high NO2/HNO3 are offset in the data set examined here by enhanced production rates resulting from increased photolysis rates resulting from the decreased O3 column above the ER-2.
A novel method of calculating the downward ozone flux across the midlatitude (30 deg-60 deg) tropopause shows the Northern Hemisphere (NH) ozone flux to be significantly larger (approximately 24%) than that calculated in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) during the year 2000. This diagnostic method makes it possible to separate dynamical aspects of transport from the seasonal cycle of ozone in the lowermost stratosphere and explain the hemispheric difference in the ozone flux. The SH total horizontal area of exchange is equal to or slightly greater than the area of exchange in the NH throughout an annual cycle. The mean changes in potential vorticity of parcels near the tropopause are also similar or slightly greater in the SH, suggesting that NH and SH downward total mass transport to the troposphere are comparable. These results imply that the greater NH ozone flux is mostly due to the amount of ozone available for exchange rather than net hemispheric dynamical differences near the tropopause level.
The utilization of stratospheric aerosol and ozone measurements obtained from the NASA developed SAM II and SAGE satellite instruments were investigated for their global scale transports. The stratospheric aerosols showed that during the stratospheric warming of the winter 1978 to 1979, the distribution of the zonal mean aerosol extinction ratio in the northern high latitude exhibited distinct changes. Dynamic processes might have played an important role in maintenance role in maintenance of this zonal mean distribution. As to the stratospheric ozone, large poleward ozone transports are shown to occur in the altitude region from 24 km to 38 km near 55N during this warming. This altitude region is shown to be a transition region of the phase relationship between ozone and temperature waves from an in-phase one above 38 km. It is shown that the ozone solar heating in the upper stratosphere might lead to enhancement of the damping rate of the planetary waves due to infrared radiation alone in agreement with theoretical analyses and an earlier observational study.
The Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) science team has developed a three dimensional chemistry and transport model (CTM) to evaluate the impact of the exhaust of supersonic aircraft on the stratosphere. An important goal of the GMI is to test modules for numerical transport, photochemical integration, and model dynamics within a common framework. This work is focussed on the dependence of the overall assessment on the wind and temperature fields used by the CTM. Three meteorological data sets for the stratosphere were available to GMI: the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model (CCM2), the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS), and the Goddard Institute for Space Studies general circulation model (GISS-2'). Objective criteria were established by the GMI team to evaluate which of these three data sets provided the best representation of trace gases in the stratosphere today. Tracer experiments were devised to test various aspects of model transport. Stratospheric measurements of long-lived trace gases were selected as a test of the CTM transport. This presentation describes the criteria used in grading the meteorological fields and the resulting choice of wind fields to be used in the GMI assessment. This type of objective model evaluation will lead to a higher level of confidence in these assessments. We suggest that the diagnostic tests shown here be used to augment traditional general circulation model evaluation methods.
SRI International is presently developing an Arctic lidar (ARCLITE) facility at the incoherent-scatter radar site in Sondre Stromfjord, Greenland (67.0 degrees N, 209.2 degrees W). The project, funded by NSF through the CEDAR (Coupling Energetics and Dynamics of Atmospheric Regions) initiative, is to perform high-altitude molecular/aerosol backscatter measurements in the Arctic covering the stratosphere/mesosphere region during nighttime and daytime conditions. The lidar system employs an injection seeded, high-energy GCR-5 Spectra Physics Nd:YAG laser for primary operation at 532 nm (550 mJ per pulse at 30 Hz). The receiver system is designed around a 36-inch Cassegrainian telescope of astronomical quality with receiver components and photon-counting electronics for day and night operations. The Rayleigh backscatter measurements will conduct investigations concerning long-term studies of the basic density and temperature structure of the Arctic stratosphere/mesosphere region; effects of stratospheric warming on the structure of the stratosphere/mesosphere region; occurrence and properties of polar stratospheric clouds; occurrence of noctilucent clouds and their properties at high latitudes; and dynamic and thermodynamic coupling between the stratosphere/mesosphere region and the lower thermosphere.
Ozone (O3) is a greenhouse gas and toxic pollutant which plays a major role in air quality and atmospheric chemistry. The understanding and ability to model the horizontal and vertical structure of O3 mixing ratios is difficult due to the complex formation/destruction processes and transport pathways that cause large variability of O3. The Environmental Protection Agency has National Ambient Air Quality Standards for O3 set at 75 ppb with future standards proposed to be as low as 65 ppb. These lower values emphasize the need to better understand/simulate the transport processes, emission sources, and chemical processes controlling precursor species (e.g., NOx, VOCs, and CO) which influence O3 mixing ratios. The uncertainty of these controlling variables is particularly large in the southeast United States (US) which is a region impacted by multiple different emission sources of precursor species (anthropogenic and biogenic) and transport processes resulting in complex spatio-temporal O3 patterns. During this work we will evaluate O3 and precursor species in the southeast US applying models, ground-based and airborne in situ data, and lidar observations. In the summer of 2013, the UAH O3 Differential Absorption Lidar (DIAL) (part of the Tropospheric Ozone Lidar Network (TOLNet)) measured vertical O3 profiles from the surface up to approximately 12 km. During this period, the lidar observed numerous periods of dynamic temporal and vertical O3 structures. In order to determine the sources/processes impacting these O3 mixing ratios we will apply the CTM GEOS-Chem (v9-02) at a 0.25 deg x 0.3125 deg resolution. Using in situ ground-based (e.g., SEARCH Network, CASTNET), airborne (e.g., NOAA WP-3D - SENEX 2013, DC-8 - SEAC4RS), and TOLNet lidar data we will first evaluate the model to determine the capability of GEOS-Chem to simulate the spatio-temporal variability of O3 in the southeast US. Secondly, we will perform model sensitivity studies in order to quantify which emission sources (e.g., anthropogenic, biogenic, lighting, wildfire) and transport processes (e.g., stratospheric, long-range, local scale) are contributing to these TOLNet-observed dynamic O3 patterns. Results from the evaluation of the model and the study of sources/processes impacting observed O3 mixing ratios will be presented.
Explaining the observed ozone trends discussed in an earlier update and predicting future trends requires an understanding of the stratospheric processes that affect ozone. Stratospheric processes occur on both large and small spatial scales and over both long and short periods of time. Because these diverse processes interact with each other, only in rare cases can individual processes be studied by direct observation. Generally the cause and effect relationships for ozone changes were established by comparisons between observations and model simulations. Increasingly, these comparisons rely on the developing, observed relationships among trace gases and dynamical quantities to initialize and constrain the simulations. The goal of this discussion of stratospheric processes is to describe the causes for the observed ozone trends as they are currently understood. At present, we understand with considerable confidence the stratospheric processes responsible for the Antarctic ozone hole but are only beginning to understand the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes. Even though the causes of the ozone trends at middle latitudes were not clearly determined, it is likely that they, just as those over Antarctica, involved chlorine and bromine chemistry that was enhanced by heterogeneous processes. This discussion generally presents only an update of the observations that have occurred for stratospheric processes since the last assessment (World Meteorological Organization (WMO), 1990), and is not a complete review of all the new information about stratospheric processes. It begins with an update of the previous assessment of polar stratospheres (WMO, 1990), followed by a discussion on the possible causes for the ozone trends at middle latitudes and on the effects of bromine and of volcanoes.
Stratospheric composition and transport patterns are changing because of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and declining levels of ozone depleting substances. Superimposed on forced trends are: dynamical variability at a range of time scales and unforeseen perturbations such as those resulting from injections of volcanic material and smoke from PyroCb events. Chemical reanalyses can be powerful tools for studying the composition of the stratosphere and disentangling forced responses from internal variability. This presentation introduces a new chemical reanalysis of stratospheric constituents developed and produced at NASA’s Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) using the recently developed GMAO Constituent Data Assimilation System. Called the MERRA-2 Stratospheric Composition Reanalysis with Aura MLS (M2-SCREAM), this reanalysis consists of assimilated global three-dimensional fields of stratospheric ozone, water vapor, hydrogen chloride (HCl), nitric acid (HNO3) and nitrous oxide (N2O) mixing ratios and covers the period since the beginning of MLS observations in September 2004 to the present. M2-SCREAM assimilates version 4.2 MLS profiles of the five constituents alongside total ozone column from the Ozone Monitoring Instrument. The dynamics and tropospheric water vapor are constrained by assimilated meteorological fields from MERRA-2. The assimilated constituent fields and meteorology are provided to users at a 50-km horizontal resolution and a three-hourly frequency. Monthly analysis uncertainties and flags are also provided to the users. M2-SCREAM is an accurate and dynamically consistent high-resolution data record of the five constituents, all of which are of primary importance to stratospheric chemistry and transport studies. We will present a description of M2-SCREAM and selected results of a process-based evaluation of this product using independent data. As an illustration, we will discuss the perturbation to stratospheric composition from the eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai in January 2022 as seen in the reanalysis. We will also propose potential scientific applications of M2-SCREAM and outline plans for an upcoming comprehensive composition reanalysis that is being developed at NASA GMAO.
Understanding changes in UTLS ozone is exceptionally challenging because of large spatial and temporal variability and because of the difficulty of satellite measurements in the UTLS. It is also exceptionally important: for example, to understand climate impacts of radiatively active substances and to understand physical and biological effects of pollution transport and stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE). Multi-decadal global observations of UTLS ozone are now available from numerous satellite platforms, as well as local and regional observations from aircraft, balloons, and lidar. The upper tropospheric (UT) jets and tropopauses are important drivers of composition variability in the UTLS, acting as transport barriers and controlling STE and long-range transport. We report here on investigations of relationships between extratropical UTLS ozone variability and dynamical diagnostics of mixing / transport barriers, Rossby Wave breaking, and stratosphere-troposphere exchange. We will view these relationships in the context of ozone mapped into dynamical coordinates with respect to the UTLS jets and / or the tropopause. This work will help provide direction for analyses within the Stratosphere-troposphere Processes And their Role in Climate (SPARC) Observed Composition Trends and Variability in the UTLS (OCTAV-UTLS) activity, which aims to use dynamical coordinate mapping to help detect and attribute observed UTLS composition trends, and to project future data needs to better quantify those trends. The work we report on here will focus on satellite ozone observations (primarily from the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder, additionally from ACE-FTS and OSIRIS) and assimilated ozone and dynamical fields (from multiple reanalyses); we will also provide some examples of comparisons with aircraft and balloon observations.
This project used a hierarchy of cloud resolving models to address the following science issues of relevance to CRYSTAL-FACE: What ice crystal nucleation mechanisms are active in the different types of cirrus clouds in the Florida area and how do these different nucleation processes influence the evolution of the cloud system and the upper tropospheric humidity? How does the feedback between supersaturation and nucleation impact the evolution of the cloud? What is the relative importance of the large-scale vertical motion and the turbulent motions in the evolution of the crystal size spectra? How does the size spectra impact the life-cycle of the cloud, stratospheric dehydration, and cloud radiative forcing? What is the nature of the turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere generated by precipitating deep convective cloud systems? How do cirrus microphysical and optical properties vary with the small-scale dynamics? How do turbulence and waves in the upper troposphere influence the cross-tropopause mixing and stratospheric and upper tropospheric humidity? The models used in this study were: 2-D hydrostatic model with explicit microphysics that can account for 30 size bins for both the droplet and crystal size spectra. Notably, a new ice crystal nucleation scheme has been incorporated into the model. Parcel model with explicit microphysics, for developing and evaluating microphysical parameterizations. Single column model for testing bulk microphysics parameterizations
The ascent and descent of the Brewer-Dobson circulation plays a large role in determining the distributions of many constituents in the extratropical lower stratosphere. However, relatively fast, quasi-horizontal transport out of the tropics and polar regions also significantly contribute to determining these distributions. The tropical tape recorder signal assures that there must be outflow from the tropics into the extratropical lower stratosphere. The phase of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and state of the polar vortex are known to modulate the transport from the tropical and polar regions, respectively. In this study we examine multiple years of ozone distributions in the extratropical lower stratosphere observed by the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) and the Aura High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS). The distributions are compared with analyses of irreversible, meridional isentropic transport. We show that there is considerable year-to-year seasonal variability in the amount of irreversible transport from the tropics, which is related to both the phase of the QBO and the state of the polar vortex. The reversibility of the transport is consistent with the number of observed breaking waves. The variability of the atmospheric index of refraction in the lower stratosphere is shown to be significantly correlated with the wave breaking and amount of irreversible transport. Finally, we will show that the seasonal extratropical stratosphere to troposphere transport of ozone can be substantially modulated by the amount of irreversible meridional transport in the lower stratosphere and we investigate how observable these differences are in data of tropospheric ozone.