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NASA NTRS1997

Gauging the Nearness and Size of Cycle Minimum

By definition, the conventional onset for the start of a sunspot cycle is the time when smoothed sunspot number (i.e., the 12-month moving average) has decreased to its minimum value (called minimum amplitude) prior to the rise to its maximum value (called maximum amplitude) for the given sunspot cycle. On the basis (if the modern era sunspot cycles 10-22 and on the presumption that cycle 22 is a short-period cycle having a cycle length of 120 to 126 months (the observed range of short-period modern era cycles), conventional onset for cycle 23 should not occur until sometime between September 1996 and March 1997, certainly between June 1996 and June 1997, based on the 95-percent confidence level deduced from the mean and standard deviation of period for the sample of six short-pei-iod modern era cycles. Also, because the first occurrence of a new cycle, high-latitude (greater than or equal to 25 degrees) spot has always preceded conventional onset of the new cycle by at least 3 months (for the data-available interval of cycles 12-22), conventional onset for cycle 23 is not expected until about August 1996 or later, based on the first occurrence of a new cycle 23, high-latitude spot during the decline of old cycle 22 in May 1996. Although much excitement for an earlier-occurring minimum (about March 1996) for cycle 23 was voiced earlier this year, the present study shows that this exuberance is unfounded. The decline of cycle 22 continues to favor cycle 23 minimum sometime during the latter portion of 1996 to the early portion of 1997.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Comment on "The Predicted Size of Cycle 23 Based on the Inferred three-cycle Quasiperiodicity of the Planetary Index Ap"

Recently, Ahluwalia reviewed the solar and geomagnetic data for the last 6 decades and remarked that these data "indicate the existence of a three-solar-activity-cycle quasiperiodicity in them." Furthermore, on the basis of this inferred quasiperiodicity, he asserted that cycle 23 represents the initial cycle in a new three-cycle string, implying that it "will be more modest (a la cycle 17) with an annual mean sunspot number count of 119.3 +/- 30 at the maximum", a prediction that is considerably below the consensus prediction of 160 +/- 30 by Joselin et al. and of similar predictions by others based on a variety of predictive techniques. Several major sticking points of Ahluwalia's presentation, however, must be readdressed, and these issues form the basis of this comment. First, Ahluwalia appears to have based his analysis on a data set of Ap index values that is erroneous. For example, he depicts for the interval of 1932-1997 the variation of the Ap index in terms of annual averages, contrasting them against annual averages of sunspot number (SSN), and he lists for cycles 17-23 the minimum and maximum value of each, as well as the years in which they occur and a quantity which he calls "Amplitude" (defined as the numeric difference between the maximum and minimum values). In particular, he identifies the minimum Ap index (i.e., the minimum value of the Ap index in the vicinity of sunspot cycle minimum, which usually occurs in the year following sunspot minimum and which will be called hereafter, simply, Ap min) and the year in which it occur for cycles 17 - 23 respectively.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Effects of Faraday Rotation Observed in Filter Magnetograph Data

In this paper we analyze the effects of Faraday rotation on the azimuth of the transverse magnetic field from observations taken with the Marshall Space Flight Center's vector magnetograph for a simple sunspot observed on June 9, 1985. Vector magnetograms were obtained over the wavelength interval of 170 mA redward of line center of the Fe I 5250.22 A spectral line to 170 mA to the blue, in steps of 10 mA. These data were analyzed to produce the variation of the azimuth as a function of wavelength at each pixel over the field of vi ew of the sunspot. At selected locations in the sunspot, curves of the observed variation of azimuth with wavelength were compared with model calculations for the amount of Faraday rotation of the azimuth. From these comparisons we derived the amount of rotation as functions of bo th the magnitude and inclination of the sunspot's field and deduced the ranges of these field values for which Faraday rotation presents a significant problem in observations taken near the center of a spectral line.

Hagyard, Mona J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Measuring Solar Radiation Incident on Earth: Solar Constant-3 (SOLCON-3)

Life on Earth is possible because the climate conditions on Earth are relatively mild. One element of the climate on Earth, the temperature, is determined by the heat exchanges between the Earth and its surroundings, outer space. The heat exchanges take place in the form of electromagnetic radiation. The Earth gains energy because it absorbs solar radiation, and it loses energy because it emits thermal infrared radiation to cold space. The heat exchanges are in balance: the heat gained by the Earth through solar radiation equals the heat lost through thermal radiation. When the balance is perturbed, a temperature change and hence a climate change of the Earth will occur. One possible perturbation of the balance is the CO2 greenhouse effect: when the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere increases, this will reduce the loss of thermal infrared radiation to cold space. Earth will gain more heat and hence the temperature will rise. Another perturbation of the balance can occur through variation of the amount of energy emitted by the sun. When the sun emits more energy, this will directly cause a rise of temperature on Earth. For a long time scientists believed that the energy emitted by the sun was constant. The 'solar constant' is defined as the amount of solar energy received per unit surface at a distance of one astronomical unit (the average distance of Earth's orbit) from the sun. Accurate measurements of the variations of the solar constant have been made since 1978. From these we know that the solar constant varies approximately with the 11-year solar cycle observed in other solar phenomena, such as the occurrence of sunspots, dark spots that are sometimes visible on the solar surface. When a sunspot occurs on the sun, since the spot is dark, the radiation (light) emitted by the sun drops instantaneously. Oddly, periods of high solar activity, when a lot of sunspot numbers increase, correspond to periods when the average solar constant is high. This indicates that the background on which the sunspots occur becomes brighter during high solar activity.

Dominique Crommelynck↗
NASA NTRS2003

Evaluating Ground-based Proxies for Solar Irradiance Variation

In order to determine what ground-based proxies are best for evaluating solar irradiance variation before the advent of space observations, it is necessary to test these proxies against space observations. We have tested sunspot number, total sunspot area, and sunspot umbral area against the Nimbus-7 measurements of total solar irradiance variation cover the eleven year period 1980-1990. The umbral area yields the best correlation and the total sunspot area yields the poorest. Reasons for expecting the umbral area to yield the best correlation are given, the statistical procedure followed to obtain the results is described, and the value of determining the best proxy is discussed. The latter is based upon the availability of an excellent database from the Greenwich Observatory obtained over the period 1876-1976, which can be used to estimate the total solar irradiance variation before sensitive space observations were available. The ground-based observations used were obtained at the Coimbra Solar Observatory. The analysis was done at Goddard using these data and data from the Nimbus-7 satellite.

Oegerle, William↗
NASA NTRS2005

Maunder's Butterfly Diagram in the 21st Century

E. Walter Maunder created his first "Butterfly Diagram" showing the equatorward drift of the sunspot latitudes over the course of each of two solar cycles in 1903. This diagram was constructed from data obtained through the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) starting in 1874. The RGO continued to acquire data up until 1976. Fortunately, the US Air Force (USAF) and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have continued to acquire similar data since that time. This combined RGO/USAF/NOAA dataset on sunspot group positions and areas now extends virtually unbroken from the 19th century to the 21st century. The data represented in the Butterfly Diagram contain a wealth of information about solar activity and the solar cycle. Solar activity (as represented by the sunspots) appears at mid-latitudes at the start of each cycle. The bands of activity spread in each hemisphere and then drift toward the equator as the cycle progresses. Although the equator itself tends to be avoided, the spread of activity reaches the equator at about the time of cycle maximum. The cycles overlap at minimum with old cycle spots appearing near the equator while new cycle spots emerge in the mid-latitudes. Large amplitude cycles tend to have activity starting at higher latitudes with the activity spreading to higher latitudes as well. Large amplitude cycles also tend to be preceded by earlier cycles with faster drift rates. These drift rates may be tied to the Sun s meridional circulation - a component in many dynamo theories for the origin of the sunspot cycle. The Butterfly Diagram must be reproduced in any successful dynamo model for the Sun.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

The Solar Cycle

Sunspots provided the first evidence for the 11-year cycle of solar activity and continue to provide key indicators of the level and nature of solar activity. Solar flares, prominence eruptions, and coronal mass ejections increase in frequency as the number of sunspots increases during the rising phase of the solar cycle. The total irradiance of the Sun and its irradiance in ultraviolet light and x-rays also increase as the sunspot number increases. On the other hand, the flux of galactic cosmic rays reaching Earth decreases as the sunspot number increases. These changes in the heliospheric environment produce significant effects on our environment. Our technological assets, in space, in the air, and on the ground, can be adversely affected by solar activity. Satellite drag, single-event upsets in electronic components, radio communication outages, power outages, and terrestrial climate can all be influenced by solar activity. In this lecture I will describe many of the significant characteristics of the solar cycle, their roots in solar magnetism, the mechanisms of the Sun's magnetic dynamo, and predictions for the amplitude and timing of next solar cycle.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Forecast of the Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 Based on the Disturbed Days Precursor

R. J. Thompson (1993, Solar Physics 148, 383) exhibited a significant linear relationship between the number of geomagnetically disturbed days (those that exceed some threshold value of the Ap or nu index) in a solar cycle and the sum of the peak sunspot number in that cycle and the next cycle. Thus, the number of disturbed days during a full cycle, together with the peak sunspot number in that cycle, is a predictor of the amplitude of the next cycle. The work reported here applies Thompson's method to the current cycle. Linear relationships as described above are derived both for the pure aa record (1868-2006) and for a composite of aa (1868-1931) and Ap (1932-2006). For the composite record, the relationship between aa and Ap is determined cycle-by-cycle during the period of overlap. The method is tested for sensitivity to the adopted Ap (or equivalent aa) threshold. The highest smoothed monthly sunspot number for Cycle 24 is forecasted to be R(sub z) = 115 plus or minus 30, where the uncertainty is conservatively based on the full spread of the data around the fitted line in the sunspot number direction. In terms of smoothed monthly 10.7-cm radio flux, the forecast is F10.7 = 164 plus or minus 28.

Rabin, Douglas M.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Hi-C Observations of Penumbral Bright Dots

We use high-quality data obtained by the High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C) to examine bright dots (BDs) in a sunspot's penumbra. The sizes of these BDs are on the order of 1 arcsecond (1") and are therefore hard to identify using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly's (AIA) 0.6" pixel(exp −1) resolution. These BD become readily apparent with Hi-C's 0.1" pixel(exp −1) resolution. Tian et al. (2014) found penumbral BDs in the transition region (TR) by using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). However, only a few of their dots could be associated with any enhanced brightness in AIA channels. In this work, we examine the characteristics of the penumbral BDs observed by Hi-C in a sunspot penumbra, including their sizes, lifetimes, speeds, and intensity. We also attempt to find any association of these BDs to the IRIS BDs. There are fewer Hi-C BDs in the penumbra than seen by IRIS, though different sunspots were studied. We use 193 Angstroms Hi-C data from July 11, 2012 which observed from approximately 18:52:00 UT- 18:56:00 UT and supplement it with data from AIA's 193 Angstrom passband to see the complete lifetime of the dots that were born before and/or lasted longer than Hi- C's 5-minute observation period. We use additional AIA passbands and compare the light curves of the BDs at different temperatures to test whether the Hi-C BDs are TR BDs. We find that most Hi-C BDs show clear movement, and of those that do, they move in a radial direction, toward or away from the sunspot umbra. Single BDs interact with other BDs, combining to fade away or brighten. The BDs that do not interact with other BDs tend to move less. Many of the properties of our BDs are similar to the extreme values of the IRIS BDs, e.g., they move slower on average and their sizes and lifetimes are on the higher end of the IRIS BDs. We infer that our penumbral BDs are the large-scale end of the distribution of BDs observed by IRIS.

Alpert, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Transition-Region/Coronal Signatures of Penumbral Microjets: Hi-C, SDO/AIA and Hinode (SOT/FG) Observations

Penumbral microjets are bright, transient features seen in the chromosphere of sunspot penumbrae. Katsuaka et al. (2007) noted their ubiquity and characterized them using the Ca II H-line filter on Hinode's Solar Optical Telescope (SOT). The jets are 1000{4000 km in length, 300{400 km in width, and last less than one minute. It was proposed that these penumbral microjets could contribute to the transition-region and coronal heating above sunspots. We examine whether these microjets appear in the transition-region (TR) and/or corona or are related{ temporally and spatially{ to similar brightenings in the TR and/or corona. First, we identify penumbral microjets with the SOT's Ca II H-line filter. The chosen sunspot is observed on July 11, 2012 from 18:50:00 UT to 20:00:00 UT at approx. 14 inches, -30 inches. We then examine the sunspot in the same field of view and at the same time in other wavelengths. We use the High Resolution Coronal Imager Telescope (Hi-C) at 193A and the 1600A, 304A, 171A, 193A, and 94A passbands of the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) onboard the Solar Dynamic Observatory. We include examples of these jets and where they should appear in the other passbands, but find no signifcant association, except for a few jets with longer lifetimes and bigger sizes seen at locations in the penumbra with repeated stronger brightenings. We conclude that the normal microjets are not heated to transition-region/coronal temperatures, but the larger jets are.

Tiwari, Sanjiv K.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Hi-C Observations of Penumbral Bright Dots: Comparison with the IRIS Results

We observed bright dots (BDs) in a sunspot penumbra by using data acquired by the High Resolution Coronal Imager (Hi-C). The sizes of these BDs are on the order of 1 arcsecond (1') and are therefore hard to identify using the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly's (AIA) 0.6' pixel -1 resolution. These BDs become readily apparent with Hi-C's 0.1' pixel -1 resolution. Tian et al. (2014) found penumbral BDs in the transition region (TR) by using the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph (IRIS). However, only a few of their dots could be associated with any enhanced brightness in AIA channels. In this work, we examine the characteristics of the penumbral BDs observed by Hi-C in a sunspot penumbra, including their sizes, lifetimes, speeds, and intensity. We also attempt to relate these BDs to the IRIS BDs. There are fewer Hi-C BDs in the penumbra than seen by IRIS, though different sunspots were studied and Hi-C had a short observation time. We use 193 A Hi-C data from July 11, 2012 which observed from 18:52:00 UT{18:56:00 UT and supplement it with data from AIA's 193 A passband to see the complete lifetime of the dots that were born before and/or lasted longer than Hi-C's 5-minute observation period. We use additional AIA passbands and compare the light curves of the BDs at different temperatures to test whether the Hi-C BDs are TR BDs. We find that most Hi-C BDs show clear movement, and of those that do, they move in a radial direction, toward or away from the sunspot umbra, sometimes doing both. BDs interact with other BDs, combining to fade away or brighten. The BDs that do not interact with other BDs tend to move less and last longer. We examine the properties of the Hi-C BDs and compare them with the IRIS BDs. Our BDs are similar to the exceptional values of the IRIS BDs: they move slower on average and their sizes and lifetimes are on the higher end of the distributions of IRIS BDs. We infer that our penumbral BDs are some of the larger BDs observed by IRIS.

Alpert, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Horizontal Flows in the Photosphere and Subphotosphere of Two Active Regions

We compare horizontal flow fields in the photosphere and in the subphotosphere (a layer 0.5 megameters below the photosphere) in two solar active regions: AR11084 and AR11158. AR11084 is a mature, simple active region without significant flaring activity, and AR11158 is a multipolar, complex active region with magnetic flux emerging during the period studied. Flows in the photosphere are derived by applying the Differential Affine Velocity Estimator for Vector Magnetograms (DAVE4VM) on HMI-observed vector magnetic fields, and the subphotospheric flows are inferred by time-distance helioseismology using HMI-observed Dopplergrams. Similar flow patterns are found for both layers for AR11084: inward flows in the sunspot umbra and outward flows surrounding the sunspot. The boundary between the inward and outward flows, which is slightly different in the photosphere and the subphotosphere, is within the sunspot penumbra. The area having inward flows in the subphotosphere is larger than that in the photosphere. For AR11158, flows in these two layers show great similarities in some areas and significant differences in other areas. Both layers exhibit consistent outward flows in the areas surrounding sunspots. On the other hand, most well-documented flux-emergence-related flow features seen in the photosphere do not have counterparts in the subphotosphere. This implies that the horizontal flows caused by flux emergence do not extend deeply into the subsurface.

SOLAR↗
NASA NTRS2014

Predicting Solar Cycle 24 Using a Geomagnetic Precursor Pair

We describe using Ap and F(10.7) as a geomagnetic-precursor pair to predict the amplitude of Solar Cycle 24. The precursor is created by using F(10.7) to remove the direct solar-activity component of Ap. Four peaks are seen in the precursor function during the decline of Solar Cycle 23. A recurrence index that is generated by a local correlation of Ap is then used to determine which peak is the correct precursor. The earliest peak is the most prominent but coincides with high levels of non-recurrent solar activity associated with the intense solar activity of October and November 2003. The second and third peaks coincide with some recurrent activity on the Sun and show that a weak cycle precursor closely following a period of strong solar activity may be difficult to resolve. A fourth peak, which appears in early 2008 and has recurrent activity similar to precursors of earlier solar cycles, appears to be the "true" precursor peak for Solar Cycle 24 and predicts the smallest amplitude for Solar Cycle 24. To determine the timing of peak activity it is noted that the average time between the precursor peak and the following maximum is approximately equal to 6.4 years. Hence, Solar Cycle 24 would peak during 2014. Several effects contribute to the smaller prediction when compared with other geomagnetic-precursor predictions. During Solar Cycle 23 the correlation between sunspot number and F(10.7) shows that F(10.7) is higher than the equivalent sunspot number over most of the cycle, implying that the sunspot number underestimates the solar-activity component described by F(10.7). During 2003 the correlation between aa and Ap shows that aa is 10 % higher than the value predicted from Ap, leading to an overestimate of the aa precursor for that year. However, the most important difference is the lack of recurrent activity in the first three peaks and the presence of significant recurrent activity in the fourth. While the prediction is for an amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 of 65 +/- 20 in smoothed sunspot number, a below-average amplitude for Solar Cycle 24, with maximum at 2014.5+/-0.5, we conclude that Solar Cycle 24 will be no stronger than average and could be much weaker than average.

predictions↗
NASA NTRS2018

Precursors of Magnetic Flux Emergence in the Moat Flows of Active Region AR12673

We report on observations of magnetic disturbances in active region AR12673 between 1 and 3 September 2017 seen as a disruption of the moat flow several hours before the onset of strong flux emergence near the main sunspot. The moat flow is commonly known as a radially oriented strong outflow of photospheric plasma surrounding sunspots, which ends abruptly and thus shapes an annular pattern around the penumbra. Using highly accurate methods of tracking this photospheric flow applied to Solar Dynamics Observatory/Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager data, we are able to describe the evolution of the moat surrounding the main sunspot of AR 12673. We find that several hours before the emergence of strong magnetic flux near the main sunspot, the moat boundaries are broken at these very same locations. This behavior is observed both on 1 and 3 September. There is no such behavior observed in the absence of flux emergence. These observational results pose the question of how often they occur in other active regions and whether the disruption of the moat flow might be, like in this case, an indication of impending enhanced magnetic activity or simply a coincidental event.

Attie, R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Application of Synoptic Magnetograms for Prediction of Solar Activity Using Ensemble Kalman Filter

Solar activity predictions using the data assimilation approach have demonstrated great potential to build reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to a non-linear dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. These developments assume an empirical relationship between the mean toroidal magnetic field flux and the sunspot number. Estimated from the sunspot number series, variations of the toroidal field have been used to assimilate the data into the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin (PKR) dynamo model by applying the EnKF method. The dynamo model describes the evolution of the toroidal and poloidal components of the magnetic field and the magnetic helicity. Full-disk magnetograms provide more accurate and complete input data by constraining both the toroidal and poloidal global field components, but these data are available only for the last four solar cycles. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of limited time series observations on the accuracy of solar activity predictions. We present EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach.

Kitiashvili, Irina N.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Deciphering Solar Magnetic Activity: The (Solar) Hale Cycle Terminator of 2021

McIntosh and colleagues identified an event in the solar timeline that appeared to play a role in how Sunspot Cycle 23 (SC23) transitioned into Sunspot Cycle 24 (SC24). The timeframe for this transition was rapid, taking place in as short as time as a solar rotation. M2014 inferred that the transition observed was a critical episode for the Sun’s global-scale magnetic field that was being manifest in the spatially and temporally overlapping and magnetic systems belonging to the Sun’s 22-year (Hale) magnetic cycle. These events have been dubbed as Hale Cycle terminations, or ‘terminators’ for short. Further exploration revealed a relationship between terminator separation (as a measure of overlap in the Hale Cycles) and the upcoming sunspot cycle amplitude. McIntosh and colleagues extrapolated upon this relationship to identify the termination of the SC24 carrying Hale Cycle band in Mid-2020 and inferred that this would result in a very large Sunspot Cycle 25 (SC25). This paper presents observational analysis of the end of SC24 and the initial months of SC25 growth following a terminator that occurred in mid-December 2021 (approximately 12/13/2021). We use the December 2021 terminator to finalize the forecast of SC25 amplitude 184 (±17 with 95% confidence, and ±63 with 68% confidence). Finally, we use other terminator-related superposed epoch analyses to project the timing of SC25 maxima in late 2023 to mid 2024.

Sun↗
NASA NTRS1993

Long-Term Variations in Total Solar Irradiance

For more than a decade total solar irradiance has been monitored simultaneously from space by different satellites. The detection of total solar irradiance variations by satellite -based experiments during the past decade and a half has stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data, using "proxy" indicators of solar activity, for the time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper the variations in total solar irradiance observed by the Nimbus-7/ERB, SMM/ACRIM I, and UARS/ACRIM II radiometers are compared to the changes in sunspot darkening and the enhanced emission of bright magnetic elements, including faculae and the magnetic network. Quantitative indices of sunspot darkening have been derived from the area and position of sunspots published in the NOAA-WDC Solar Geophysical Data catalog. The Mg core-to-wing ratio, derived from the irradiance observations of Nimbus-7 and NOAA9 satellites, is used as a proxy for the bright magnetic elements. It has been found that a model, calculated from the Mg II core-to-wing ratio underestimates the observed total irradiance at the time of maximum and during the beginning of the declining portion of solar cycle 22 similar in behaviour just before the maximum of solar cycle 21. Similar results are found using He-line equivalent width and 10.7 cm radio flux which indicates that the current irradiance models are in general not capable to reproducing the changes observed in total solar irradiance.

total↗
NASA NTRS1971

Solar activity prediction

A statistical study of formulas for predicting the sunspot number several years in advance is reported. By using a data lineup with cycle maxima coinciding, and by using multiple and nonlinear predictors, a new formula which gives better error estimates than former formulas derived from the work of McNish and Lincoln is obtained. A statistical analysis is conducted to determine which of several mathematical expressions best describes the relationship between 10.7 cm solar flux and Zurich sunspot numbers. Attention is given to the autocorrelation of the observations, and confidence intervals for the derived relationships are presented. The accuracy of predicting a value of 10.7 cm solar flux from a predicted sunspot number is dicussed.

Slutz, R. J.↗