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At least 433 records · Page 24
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal Performance of Neutron Sensor Qualification Device

The neutron sensor qualification device was developed to provide a temperature-controlled environment for neutron sensors and dosimetry, enabling irradiation in a neutron field at the Armed Forces Radiobiology Research Institute (AFRRI) TRIGA reactor facility. The device, constructed from low-activation and low neutron cross-section materials, features a modular tube furnace design with three independently controlled heating zones for controlling axial temperature distribution. Laboratory testing validated the device's thermal performance, including uniform temperature distribution with less than 6°C variation across the central region, a steady-state operational temperature of 350°C achieved in approximately 3 hours, and a cooling time constant of 3.5 hours. External surface temperatures remained safe for handling, with the surrounding aluminum structure remaining at ambient conditions. The results confirm the device’s suitability for neutron sensor qualification experiments, with potential for future operation at higher temperatures and further optimization of performance.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Accelerated Steady-state Test Capsule Experiments to Replicate EBR-II Fuel Behavior Using BISON Fuel Performance Analysis

Here in this work, BISON fuel performance calculations were performed to predict the fuel behavior of accelerated burnup U-Pu-Zr fuel, with temperature operation conditions of the fuel and the cladding mirroring conditions within EBR-II fuel pins. The temperature operating conditions within the FAST accelerated burnup rods were aimed at replicating EBR-II X447/X447A fuel surface and inner cladding surface temperatures. Due to the FAST capsule design, these temperatures can be replicated with fission rate densities being significantly increased. fuel performance modeling has not been assessed for novel experiments such as accelerated burnup utilizing the FAST capsule within ATR. This is an important step in understanding accelerated irradiation methods as many performance models are empirical models conforming to the results of PIE but do not always include physical models that would represent the changes in irradiation tests.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessment of Warm and Dry Bias over ARM SGP Site in E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF

Abstract Many climate models exhibit a dry and warm bias over the central United States during the summer months, including the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) and its Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF) configuration. Understanding the causes of this bias is important to shine a light on this common model error and reduce the uncertainty in future projections. In this study, we use E3SMv2 and E3SM-MMF to assess how parameterized and resolved convection affect temperature and precipitation biases over the Southern Great Plains site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program. Both configurations overestimate near-surface temperature and underestimate precipitation at the ARM SGP site. The bias is associated with a lack of low-level clouds during days without precipitation and too much incoming solar radiation causing the surface to warm. Low-level cloud fraction in E3SM-MMF during the nonprecipitating days is lower in comparison to E3SMv2 and observation, consistent with the larger warm bias. We also find that the underestimated precipitation can be characterized as “too frequent, too weak” in E3SMv2 and “too rare, too intense” in E3SM-MMF. These deficiencies conspire to sustain the warm and dry bias over the central United States.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

iButton and Tinytag snow/ground interface temperature measurements at Teller 27 and Kougarok 64 from 2022-2023, Seward Peninsula, Alaska

Snow/ground interface temperature measurements were collected at the NGEE Arctic Teller Road Site at mile marker 27 (TL_MM27) and at the Kougarok Road Site at mile marker 64 (KG_MM64) on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. Data were collected between October 1, 2022 to September 18, 2023 using iButton Link DS1921G-F5# Thermochron miniature temperature sensors (https://www.ibuttonlink.com/products/ds1921g) and Tinytag TGP-4017 internal sensors (https://www.micronmeters.com/product/tgp-4017-internal-sensor-40-to-85-c-40-f-to-185-f) deployed across the Kougarok and Teller sites. These sensors are a cost-efficient way to collect snowpack temperatures at a higher spatial resolution than what is normally achieved. iButton data were collected every 4 hours, while Tinytag data were collected every 30 minutes. In total, data were collected from 196 iButtons and 26 Tinytags. This dataset contains four *.csv files of near-ground surface temperatures at various locations throughout each study site and two *.kml files of sensor locations. Data were collected throughout the snow cover season so that snowpack characteristics could be derived using the temperature data. Sensors were placed both inside and outside of vegetation to better capture the spatial variability of snow properties across each domain.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic) was a 15-year research effort (2012-2027) to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research.The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska.Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Unexpected Oceanic Peak in Energy Input to the Atmosphere and Its Consequences for Monsoon Rainfall

Abstract Monsoons have historically been understood to be caused by the low thermal inertia of land, allowing more energy from summer insolation to be transferred to the overlying atmosphere than over adjacent ocean. Here, we show that during boreal summer, the global maximum net energy input (NEI) to the atmosphere unexpectedly lies over the Indian Ocean, not over land. Observed radiative fluxes suggest that cloud‐radiative effects (CRE) almost double the NEI over ocean, shifting the NEI peak from land to ocean. Global climate model experiments with both land and interactive sea surface temperatures confirm that CRE create the oceanic NEI maximum. Interactions between CRE, NEI, circulation, and land‐sea contrast in surface heat capacity shift precipitation from Southeast to South Asia. CRE thus alter the global partitioning of precipitation between land and ocean and the spatial structure of Earth's strongest monsoon, in ways that can be understood through the NEI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Drivers of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability using a Stochastic Model Hierarchy

The relative importance of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in generating Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) remains an open question. Comparisons between climate models with SLAB and fully-dynamic (FULL) ocean components are often used to explore this question, but cannot reveal how individual ocean processes generate these differences. We build a hierarchy of physically interpretable stochastic models to investigate the contribution of two upper-ocean processes to AMV: the role of seasonal variation and mixed-layer entrainment. This interpretability arises from the stochastic model’s simplified representation of sea surface temperature (SST), considering only the local upper ocean response to white-noise atmospheric forcing and its impact on surface heat exchange. We focus on understanding differences between SLAB and FULL non-eddy resolving pre-industrial control simulations of the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM), and estimate the stochastic model parameters from each respective simulation. Despite its simplicity, the stochastic model reproduces temporal characteristics of SST variability in the SPG, including reemergence, seasonal-to-interannual persistence and power spectra. Furthermore, unrealistically persistent SST of the CESM-SLAB ocean simulation is reproduced in the equivalent stochastic model configuration where the mixed-layer depth (MLD) is constant. The stochastic model also reveals that vertical entrainment primarily damps SST variability, thus explaining why SLAB exhibits larger SST variance than FULL. Here, the stochastic model driven by temporally stochastic, spatially coherent forcing patterns reproduces the canonical AMV pattern. However, the amplitude of low-frequency variability remains underestimated, suggesting a role for ocean dynamics beyond entrainment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Water4Energy Tier-1 Raw Observations for TVA Seasonal Prediction, Version 1

Tier-1 (Step-1) raw observation staging collection for the Water4Energy Genesis Task-1 project on weeks-to-years prediction of Tennessee Valley temperature and precipitation. This data-only deposit includes CPC/PSL teleconnection indices, NOAA OISST monthly and ERSST sea-surface temperature, ERA5-derived daily 1° fields (t2m, tp, msl for 1980–2024), CFSv2 NMME ensemble-mean seasonal baselines, and a TVA boundary mask. The product supports seasonal teleconnection diagnostics and construction of AI ready-to-train packs published separately. Multi-terabyte hourly archives are excluded from this version.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Modeling Advanced Strippers for CO2 Capture from Gas-Fired Power Plants using Aqueous Piperazine

Energy performance of 5 m piperazine was evaluated with an advanced stripper at the pilot scale, accounting for heat loss. Modeling studies indicated that heat loss at locations other than the heat source impacted the heat duty. For strippers with excess packing, the column was the most important source of heat loss, and values as low as 0.03 GJ/hr can cause pinch and reabsorption of CO2. Solvents like 5 m PZ are more affected by heat loss in the column due to a top-side temperature pinch at high lean loading. Heat loss impacts NGCC CO2 capture more than coal-based CO2 capture. Surface temperature measurements pilot plants showed that heat loss was 50-75% controlled by natural convection. Measured heat loss was correlated with steam flowrate and wind speed and ranged from 8126 to 219668 Btu/hr, representing 35% of the measured heat rate on average. Net heat duty linearly varied with CO2 removal at low lean loading and was similar for coal and NGCC conditions at fixed removal. At 90% removal, net heat duty was about 2.5 GJ/t with 4 and 12% CO2 in the flue gas. 7 At NGCC conditions, strippers with finite packing can benefit from a flashing feed to the top of the column by using a hot bypass. A flashing feed was linked to a reduction in irreversibility of the stripper from temperature driving forces. It also reduces heat duty by up to 6% at fixed packing height and reduces packing requirement for a fixed steam heater size compared to a warm bypass. Lean loading and lean solvent rate were effective handles to maximize profitability of a fixed stripper design at low gas price. High ambient temperature operation can benefit from low pressure stripping to about 0.18 lean loading at 150 ℃ to maintain the cyclic capacity at reduced rich loading. At low gas price, the capture plant was able to maximize profitability even with a high heat duty of 2.7-3.1 GJ/t at a lean loading of 0.2-0.22 mol/mol. Heat recovery by partial water vapor condensation in a gas-liquid exchanger can be replaced by a direct contact condenser (DCC). The DCC improved gas cooling and reduced heat duty compared to the CO2 exchanger at 0.2 lean loading. The DCC when used with a 150 ℃/5.5 bar stripper can reduce the cost of capture compared to the base case by $3- 4/tonne at 15 ft of packing (optimum) but increases cost of capture by $6/tonne with a 120 ℃/2 bar stripper and 10 ft of packing (optimum). The DCC can work effectively with a solvent with a high heat of absorption and thermal stability.

Suresh Babu, Athreya↗
DOE OSTI2025

Methods for Measuring and Computing the Reference Temperature in Newton’s Law of Cooling for External Flows

Newton’s law of cooling requires a reference temperature (𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 ) to define the heat-transfer coefficient (ℎ). For external flows with multiple temperatures in the freestream, obtaining 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 is a challenge. One widely used method, referred to as the adiabatic-wall (AW) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by requiring the surface of the solid exposed to convective heat transfer to be adiabatic. Another widely used method, referred to as the linear-extrapolation (LE) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by measuring/computing the heat flux ($𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$) on the solid surface at two different surface temperatures (𝑇 𝑠 ) and then linearly extrapolating to $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. A third recently developed method, referred to as the state-space (SS) method, obtains 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 by probing the temperature space between the highest and lowest in the flow to account for the effects of 𝑇 𝑠 or $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ on 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 . This study examines the foundation and accuracy of these methods via a test problem involving film cooling of a flat plate where $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ switches signs on the plate’s surface. Results obtained show that only the SS method could guarantee a unique and physically meaningful 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 on a nonadiabatic surface $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ = 0. The AW and LE methods both assume 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 to be independent of 𝑇 𝑠 , which the SS method shows to be incorrect. Though this study also showed the adiabatic-wall temperature, 𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , to be a good approximation of 𝑇 𝑟𝑒𝑓 (<10% relative error), huge errors can occur in ℎ about the solid surface where |𝑇 𝑠 −𝑇 𝐴𝑊 | is near zero because where 𝑇 𝑠 =𝑇 𝐴𝑊 , $𝑞^{′′}_𝑠$ ≠ 0.

Newton's law of cooling↗
DOE OSTI2025

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 1 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version 2-1 Level 1 (L1) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. L1 data are close to raw, but are units-transformed and have out-of-instrument-bounds, out-of-service, and outlier flags added. Duplicates and missing data are removed but otherwise these data are not filtered, and have not been subject to any additional algorithmic or human QA/QC. Any scientific analyses of L1 data should be performed with care. **This dataset will be updated quarterly with new data for the duration of the project** This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific CSV (comma separated value) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are normally logged every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L1 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024 This dataset was updated 2026-03-12: (i) data now go through 2025-12-31 (previous end was 2025-06-30) and (ii) dataset and file names updated to “…v2-1” (previously was “v2-0”).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

COMPASS-FME Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) Experiment Level 2 Sensor Data v2-1

This is the version v2-1 Level 2 (L2) data release for COMPASS-FME environmental sensors located at our Terrestrial Ecosystem Manipulation to Probe the Effects of Storm Treatments (TEMPEST) experimental site. This manipulative, ecosystem-scale TEMPEST experiment addresses the potential for freshwater and estuarine-water disturbance events to alter tree function, species composition, and ecosystem processes in a deciduous coastal forest in MD, USA. The experiment uses a large-unit (2000 m2), un-replicated experimental design, with three 50 m × 40 m plots serving as control, freshwater, and estuarine-water treatments. Level 2 (L2) data consist of sensor observations from the COMPASS-FME synoptic sites, TEMPEST, and DELUGE. Compared to the L1 data, these are more consistent (always 15-minute timestamps for the entire year); better QA/QC’d (out of bounds, out of service, and extreme outlier values are removed); and more complete, with a gap-filled time series available alongside the main observations, and additional derived (calculated) variables. L2 data are intended to be rapidly and easily usable in analyses and simulations. However, algorithmic outlier identification always carries the risk of removing valid data, and Level 1 data may be more suitable for analyses that focus on variability or extreme events. This dataset includes: - An overall dataset README file that describes the current version, gives citation and contact information, etc. - Site- and year-specific folders, each holding variable-specific Parquet (a high performance, space efficient format; see https://parquet.apache.org) data files for each site and plot in that year. - Metadata files within each site-year folder provide full information on data units, expected ranges, contact information, detailed flood times, as well as a general description of the site. - Environmental sensor types that appear in the data files include weather (ClimaVUE50, CS, RM Young, and LI instruments in the graphs below); soil conditions (TEROS12); soil redox state (Redox); groundwater variables (AquaTROLL200 and AquaTROLL600); open water sondes (Exo); tree sap velocity (Sapflow); and system voltage and state (Datalogger). Data are reported every 15 minutes. Please see v2-1 TEMPEST L2 Sensor Package Quick Start.pdf for detailed information on data package structure, temporal coverage, and versioning. Data files are in Apache Parquet, a high performance, space efficient format for tabular data. These files can be read using R's `arrow` package (https://arrow.apache.org/docs/r/), with similar tools available in other languages. The TEMPEST flood events occurred on the following dates. They lasted for ~10 hours each day and delivered ~80,000 gallons to each plot; many data streams are available at 1 or 5 minute frequency during these periods. * Tests: Aug 25 (fresh plot) and Sep 9 (salt plot), 2021 * TEMPEST 1: June 22, 2022 * TEMPEST 2: June 6-7, 2023 * TEMPEST 3: June 11-13, 2024

EARTH SCIENCE > ATMOSPHERE > ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATU↗
DOE OSTI2020

HBU R and D Cask Transportation Options - 20436

The TN-32B HBU Demonstration Cask was successfully loaded in November 2017 with 32 high burnup (HBU) fuel assemblies at Dominion's North Anna Nuclear Plant and is collecting thermal data as intended. The first two phases of this very successful project sponsored by DOE and EPRI was designed to collect thermal data of HBU fuel to support extended storage. The next phase of the project requires the cask be licensed for transportation so the cask can be relocated to a site (to be determined by DOE) to facilitate long term monitoring and additional research on the fuel. This is a unique challenge given the constraints that exist for this particular bolted metal cask. The TN-32B cask is a 234,288 lb. (storage configuration) dry storage system that was selected for this project and it was modified to provide thermal data and the ability to collect gas samples after loading. Several major issues must be addressed to obtain the transport license including protecting the seven lid penetrations that were made to allow for the insertion of the thermocouples into the selected fuel assemblies after the cask was loaded. In order to protect the integrity of the research, the payload must remain as is. Therefore, the cask system must be placed into the transportation configuration without rewetting the fuel, replacing the lid and without removing the thermocouple instrumentation that is currently installed. A critical portion of the design and engineering that was performed in the first two phases of the project was to ensure that future transportation of the cask was integrated into the approach. Efforts were made to accommodate requirements such as containment boundary leakage testing, installation of impact limiter brackets and lid bolts suitable for transportation. Due to the science requirements of the project, the fuel selected was intended to yield the highest payload temperatures permitted to provide the greatest value for the researchers. This resulted in higher than usual external dose rates and surface temperatures that warranted performing as much preparatory work prior to cask loading to ensure ALARA and personnel safety to the greatest extent practical rather than working on a loaded cask. In addition to the work performed prior to cask load, there are remaining challenges such as protecting the modified lid, design and fabrication of impact limiters that accommodate the modified cask lid and preserving the thermocouple connections for continued monitoring. The project team is currently performing the necessary calculations, engineering, and design to support the licensing as required by the US NRC. Pre-application meetings have been held to inform the regulator of the planned technical approach to ensure compliance with the applicable regulations. The current plan is to obtain the transportation C of C by the end of 2021. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2024

Experimental investigation of Multi-Mode heat transfer to a Free-Falling dilute particle cloud in a heated vertical tube

The development of dilute particle heat exchangers and reactors for advanced energy systems requires an understanding of the multi-mode heat transfer from a heated wall to falling particles. This study presents experimental results of the overall heat transfer coefficient for a free-falling, dilute flow of particles with solid volume fraction from 0.0005 to 0.006 corresponding to feed rates from 3.7 kg s -1 m -2 to 44 kg s -1 m -2 in a vertical, heated tube containing quiescent air at atmospheric pressure. Tube wall temperatures are varied between 300°C to 900°C while keeping the particle inlet temperature constant. The experimental results show that the overall heat transfer coefficient is a strong function of particle feed rate and surface temperature. Good agreement was obtained with prior studies conducted at comparable temperatures but lower particle feed rates (< 4 kg m -2 s -1 ). The established correlations for particle-to-wall radiation and particle-to-gas convection were used to estimate the wall-to-gas convective contribution from the measured overall heat transfer coefficient. The experimental results indicated a 4 to 6 times improvement in the wall convection in the solid-gas mixture compared to that expected from natural convection in a single-phase gas. Furthermore, the data presented here are applicable to characterize heat transfer in dilute particle heat exchangers, furnaces, and solar receivers.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Failure investigation and mitigation after experimental research reactor fuel plate deformation in an irradiation device

Experimental research reactor fuel testing is conducted in the Belgian Reactor 2 (BR2) of the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre (SCK CEN) in dedicated irradiation vehicles or rigs. One such vehicle allows flat full-size fuel plates to be irradiated by inserting them into slotted baskets that captures a narrow portion of the longitudinal edges of the plates. The motion of the fuel plates within the baskets is possible within the narrow slots and thus, the plate is considered to be unattached. The design intentionally omits fixing mechanisms of the fuel plates to the baskets to facilitate the inspection and repositioning of the plates between the irradiation cycles and the accommodation of thermal expansion of the plates in the lateral direction. However, loosely inserted fuel plates have weak structural boundary conditions allowing for larger out-of-plane deflections caused by hydrodynamic loads exerted by the flowing coolant, as compared to those of fixed plates. Unexpected large deformations of plates occurred in several irradiation cycles that further resulted in a loss of cladding integrity. These deformations could not be attributed to a single source. This triggered a series of thermal hydraulic, structural, and fluid-structure interaction analyses aiming at understanding the observed phenomenon. The analyses revealed that, for a certain combination of unfavorable manufacturing and assembly tolerances, fuel plate edges could escape out of the slots in the irradiation basket due to the hydrodynamic load. Subsequently, the plate could become wedged inside the basket coolant channel opening. This resulted in reduced coolant flow and accelerated temperature increase and thermal expansion of the plate while under irradiation. This unfavorable feedback loop could then lead to excessive plate surface temperatures, deformed plates and cladding failure, as was observed in the experiments. These analyses not only provided a probable cause of the fuel plate failures, but also resulted in a new and improved design of the irradiation basket to avoid these issues in the future. In conclusion, a series of recent successful irradiations confirm that the sources of failures were identified correctly, and the implemented mitigations were adequate.

BR2↗
DOE OSTI2020

Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends

Anthropogenically forced changes in ocean biogeochemistry are underway and critical for the ocean carbon sink and marine habitat. Detecting such changes in ocean biogeochemistry will require quantification of the magnitude of the change (anthropogenic signal) and the natural variability inherent to the climate system (noise). Here we use Large Ensemble (LE) experiments from four Earth system models (ESMs) with multiple emissions scenarios to estimate Time of Emergence (ToE) and partition projection uncertainty for anthropogenic signals in five biogeochemically important upper-ocean variables. We find ToEs are robust across ESMs for sea surface temperature and the invasion of anthropogenic carbon; emergence time scales are 20–30 yr. For the biological carbon pump, and sea surface chlorophyll and salinity, emergence time scales are longer (50+ yr), less robust across the ESMs, and more sensitive to the forcing scenario considered. We find internal variability uncertainty, and model differences in the internal variability uncertainty, can be consequential sources of uncertainty for projecting regional changes in ocean biogeochemistry over the coming decades. In combining structural, scenario, and internal variability uncertainty, this study represents the most comprehensive characterization of biogeochemical emergence time scales and uncertainty to date. Our findings delineate critical spatial and duration requirements for marine observing systems to robustly detect anthropogenic change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

More Realistic Intermediate Depth Dry Firn Densification in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)

Abstract Earth system models account for seasonal snow cover, but many do not accommodate the deeper snowpack on ice sheets (aka firn) that slowly transforms to ice under accumulating snowfall. To accommodate and resolve firn depths of up to 60 m in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model's land surface model (ELM), we add 11 layers to its snowpack and evaluate three dry snow compaction equations in multi‐century simulations. After comparing results from ELM simulations (forced with atmospheric reanalysis) with empirical data, we find that implementing into ELM a two‐stage firn densification model produces more accurate dry firn densities at intermediate depths of 20–60 m. Compared to modeling firn using the equations in the (12 layer) Community Land Model (version 5), switching to the two‐stage firn densification model (with 16 layers) significantly decreases root‐mean‐square errors in upper 60 m dry firn densities by an average of 41 kg m −3 (31%). Simulations with three different firn density parameterizations show that the two‐stage firn densification model should be used for applications that prioritize accurate upper 60 m firn air content (FAC) in regions where the mean annual surface temperature is greater than roughly −31°C. Because snow metamorphism, firn density, and FAC are major components in modeling ice sheet surface albedo, melt water retention, and climatic mass balance, these developments advance broader efforts to simulate the response of land ice to atmospheric forcing in Earth system models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

The role of Northeast Pacific meltwater events in deglacial climate change

Columbia River megafloods occurred repeatedly during the last deglaciation, but the impacts of this fresh water on Pacific hydrography are largely unknown. To reconstruct changes in ocean circulation during this period, we used a numerical model to simulate the flow trajectory of Columbia River megafloods and compiled records of sea surface temperature, paleo-salinity, and deep-water radiocarbon from marine sediment cores in the Northeast Pacific. The North Pacific sea surface cooled and freshened during the early deglacial (19.0-16.5 ka) and Younger Dryas (12.9-11.7 ka) intervals, coincident with the appearance of subsurface water masses depleted in radiocarbon relative to the sea surface. We infer that Pacific meltwater fluxes contributed to net Northern Hemisphere cooling prior to North Atlantic Heinrich Events, and again during the Younger Dryas stadial. Abrupt warming in the Northeast Pacific similarly contributed to hemispheric warming during the Bølling and Holocene transitions. These findings underscore the importance of changes in North Pacific freshwater fluxes and circulation in deglacial climate events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha′apai Volcano Impact Model Observation Comparison (HTHH-MOC) project: experiment protocol and model descriptions

The 2022 Hunga volcanic eruption injected a significant amount of water vapor and a moderate amount of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, causing observable responses in the climate system. We have developed a model–observation comparison project to investigate the evolution of volcanic water and aerosols and their impacts on atmospheric dynamics, chemistry, and climate, using several state-of-the-art chemistry climate models. The project goals are (1) to evaluate the current chemistry–climate models to quantify their performance in comparison to observations and (2) to understand atmospheric responses in the Earth system after this exceptional event and investigate the potential impacts in the projected future. To achieve these goals, we designed specific experiments for direct comparisons to observations, for example from balloons and the Microwave Limb Sounder satellite instrument. Experiment 1 consists of two sets of free-running ensemble experiments from 2022 to 2031: one with fixed sea-surface temperatures and sea ice and one with coupled ocean. These experiments will help to understand the long-term evolution of water vapor and aerosols; quantify HTHH effects on stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures, dynamics, and transport; understand the impact of dynamic changes on ozone chemistry; quantify the net radiative forcings; and evaluate any surface climate impact. Experiment 2 is a nudged-run experiment from 2022 to 2023 using observed meteorology. To allow participation of more climate models with varying complexities of aerosol simulation, we include two sets of simulations in Experiment 2: Experiment 2a is designed for models with internally generated aerosol, while Experiment 2b is designed for models using prescribed aerosol surface area density. This experiment will help to analyze H 2 O and aerosol evolution, quantify the net radiative forcings, understand the impacts on mid-latitude and polar O 3 chemistry, and allow close comparisons with observations.

Zhu, Yunqian [Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (Unit↗