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Robonaut 2 - IVA Experiments On-Board ISS and Development Towards EVA Capability

Robonaut 2 (R2) has completed its fixed base activities on-board the ISS and is scheduled to receive its climbing legs in early 2014. In its continuing line of firsts, the R2 torso finished up its on-orbit activities on its stanchion with the manipulation of space blanket materials and performed multiple tasks under teleoperation control by IVA astronauts. The successful completion of these two IVA experiments is a key step in Robonaut's progression towards an EVA capability. Integration with the legs and climbing inside the ISS will provide another important part of the experience that R2 will need prior to performing tasks on the outside of ISS. In support of these on-orbit activities, R2 has been traversing across handrails in simulated zero-g environments and working with EVA tools and equipment on the ground to determine manipulation strategies for an EVA Robonaut. R2 made significant advances in robotic manipulation of deformable materials in space while working with its softgoods task panel. This panel features quarter turn latches that secure a space blanket to the task panel structure. The space blanket covers two cloth cubes that are attached with Velcro to the structure. R2 was able to open and close the latches, pull back the blanket, and remove the cube underneath. R2 simulated cleaning up an EVA worksite as well, by replacing the cube and reattaching the blanket. In order to interact with the softgoods panel, R2 has both autonomously and with a human in the loop identified and localized these deformable objects. Using stereo color cameras, R2 identified characteristic elements on the softgoods panel then extracted the location and orientation of the object in its field of view using stereo disparity and kinematic transforms. R2 used both vision processing and supervisory control to successfully accomplish this important task. Teleoperation is a key capability for Robonaut's effectiveness as an EVA system. To build proficiency, crewmembers have attempted increasingly difficult tasks using R2 inside the Station. After donning motion capture equipment and a virtual reality visor, Expedition 34/35 flight engineer Tom Marshburn began operations with simple hand movements. Having gained confidence, Marshburn guided R2's arms in a leader-follower exercise with crewmate Chris Cassidy. He was also able to use the hand to grab a tumbling roll of tape, a task only demonstrable in microgravity. Later efforts saw Cassidy handle softgoods through shared control with ground operators, mimicking an activity previously achieved using only autonomy. Robotic climbing through the ISS on handrails requires both precision motion and compliant grasps in order to both position grippers on handrails/seat track and prevent large internal forces. R2 climbs using actively controlled compliance and torque limiting to meet both the precision and softness requirements. During a step, the attached leg is controlled to be strong and stiff in order to maintain precision trajectory tracking. The swing leg is controlled to be stiff but weak to minimize unintentional impact forces while maintaining precision. During a simulated dual limb grasp (as shown in Figure 1), the R2 controller maintains one limb rigid and one limb soft to prevent large internal forces from building up. R2's grippers also use a form of force control to limit grip force while not fully closed on either a handrail or seat track thus limiting unintentional forces on cables/objects that may be present in R2's translational path. The on-board torso R2 safety system relies on a single end-effector velocity limit to prevent potential impact forces from exceeding Station maximum load requirements. R2's mobile configuration required modifications to the velocity limiting safety function due to its large, dynamic inertia. R2's legs maneuver the robot's mass creating configuration dependent, joint-relative inertias. A single all-encompassing velocity limit to cover worst case inertia is prohibitively low. The upgraded R2 control and safety systems solve this problem using momentum limiting, momentum control, and kinetic energy minimization. Momentum and kinetic energy take the robot mass into account relieving low velocity restrictions on low inertia end-effectors while ensuring that the overall mass of R2 is limited from hazardous velocities. The momentum of R2's five safety nodes (each of the four end-effectors and the body) is monitored and compared to a single momentum limit. If any of the five nodes exceeds the safety limit, the motor power is removed and the robot comes to a stop. Momentum control/limiting also provides a simple, reliable method to integrate hand held tools into the safety system by providing the tool mass to the control system thus automatically reducing the allowable velocity of the end-effector with the tool. Work on the ground continues to build the skill set for an EVA Robonaut. Recent experiments (Figure 2) demonstrate how a teleoperator can use R2 to manipulate a tether hook, an important safety precaution on spacewalks. Another task displayed Robonaut's ability to pull back a protective jacket over a hose and search for damage, as well as inspect a quick-disconnect fitting for debris. Demonstrations such as these are indicative of EVA work done on ISS, specifically seen during a series of spacewalks over 2012 and 2013 where astronauts searched for an ammonia leak in one of the external cooling loops. Through experiments both on ISS and on the ground, R2 is evolving and providing the information needed to plan out the upgrades that will make an EVA Robonaut an effective tool. With the addition of legs, R2 will start climbing inside the space station and supply invaluable information on how the climbing strategies and task stabilization techniques must be refined. Ground R2 systems will continue to work with additional EVA tools and equipment in preparation for onboard IVA testing and future EVA applications.

Diftler, Myron↗

Mangroves Cover Change Trajectories 1984-2020: The Gradual Decrease of Mangroves in Colombia

Awareness of the significant benefits of mangroves to human lives and their role in regulating environmental processes has increased during the recent decades. Yet there remains significant uncertainty about the mangrove change trajectories and the drivers of change at national scales. In Colombia, the absence of historical satellite imagery and persistent cloud cover have impeded the accurate mapping of mangrove extent and change over time. We create a temporally consistent Landsat-derived dataset using the LandTrendr algorithm to track the historical land cover and mangrove conversion from 1984-2020 across Colombia. Over this period, mangrove extent decreased by ~48.000ha (14% of total mangrove area). We find a gradual reduction of mangrove extent along the Pacific coast since 2004, whereas, in the Caribbean, mangrove cover declined around during 1984-1988 and also after 2012. Our time-series analysis matches with drivers of mangrove change at three local sites. For instance, hydroclimatic events, dredging activities, and high sediment loads transported by the rivers have collectively improved mangrove recovery in some sites. In contrast, human activities pressure linked to agricultural expansion and road construction have degraded mangroves. The transition from dense mangrove to other vegetation types is the most significant conversion affecting mangrove cover in Colombia, impacting an area of 38,469 ± 2,829 ha. We anticipate increased mangrove loss, especially along the Pacific coast, resulting from intensified human activity. Prioritization of conservation areas is needed to support local institutions, maintain currently protected areas, and develop strategies (e.g. payment for ecosystem services) to preserve one of the most pristine mangrove regions in the Western Hemisphere.

Landsat↗

Evaluation of the table Mountain Ronchi telescope for angular tracking

The performance of the University of California at San Diego (UCSD) Table Mountain telescope was evaluated to determine the potential of such an instrument for optical angular tracking. This telescope uses a Ronchi ruling to measure differential positions of stars at the meridian. The Ronchi technique is summarized and the operational features of the Table Mountain instrument are described. Results from an analytic model, simulations, and actual data are presented that characterize the telescope's current performance. For a star pair of visual magnitude 7, the differential uncertainty of a 5-min observation is about 50 nrad (10 marcsec), and tropospheric fluctuations are the dominant error source. At magnitude 11, the current differential uncertainty is approximately 800 nrad (approximately 170 marcsec). This magnitude is equivalent to that of a 2-W laser with a 0.4-m aperture transmitting to Earth from a spacecraft at Saturn. Photoelectron noise is the dominant error source for stars of visual magnitude 8.5 and fainter. If the photoelectron noise is reduced, ultimately tropospheric fluctuations will be the limiting source of error at an average level of 35 nrad (7 marcsec) for stars approximately 0.25 deg apart. Three near-term strategies are proposed for improving the performance of the telescope to the 10-nrad level: improving the efficiency of the optics, masking background starlight, and averaging tropospheric fluctuations over multiple observations.

Lanyi, G.↗

Informing New Concepts for UAS and Autonomous System Safety Management using Disaster Management and First Responder Scenarios

As emerging flight operations become more prevalent and increasingly automated and distributed, the capabilities for managing safety of vehicles and operations will also need to evolve. To address this challenge, the National Academies has envisioned an In-Time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) capability for a wide range of aviation operations including current commercial operations as well as new entrants envisioned with advanced air mobility (AAM). The suite of IASMS services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) would be implemented in a federated approach and would address trends as well as individual operations. Through predictive modeling and data analysis, IASMS is envisioned to identify arising risks so that they can be mitigated, in-time, before a safety incident occurs. IASMS and its requisite set of SFCs must leverage a wide range of information to perform. To better understand these new needs, FSF worked with the aviation and humanitarian communities to develop and validate scenarios that include traditional aviation operations and UAS operations intermingled as they are deployed for disaster management and first responder (DMFR) situations. The three scenarios developed include: • Post Natural disaster response, such as a hurricane, involving multiple parties utilizing traditional aviation and UAS to support rescue operations, surveil damage, and locate survivors needing assistance. • Wildfire fighting in remote locations with traditional aircraft for transport and fire-retardant delivery combined with UAS for surveillance of fire locations as well as to track individual firefighter locations. • Medical Operations and AAM in Urban Environments including passenger-carrying helicopters and AAM vehicles, medical missions (such as transport of radio-pharmaceuticals), and other UAS delivery operations (such as the delivery of defibrillators). Each scenario was developed and validated by representatives with expertise in humanitarian operations, urban and rural emergency response, air traffic management, UAS operations, and traditional flight operations. The scenario definitions address roles and responsibilities of individual actors, the appropriate utilization of UAS, and the actions taken by those actors to appropriately manage risks associated with the mission and environment. The risks to aviation traffic and to people on the ground explored included potential risks arising from incompatibilities in calculating reference altitudes (eg, differing uses of AGL, MSL, barometric, or GPS-derived values), loss of command and control (C2) communications, rapid changes in weather and winds, and physical interference. For each risk, IASMS SFCs were postulated in the context of monitoring services, risk assessment capabilities, and identifying appropriate mitigation strategies. The identified SFC capabilities were envisioned from known services postulated for IASMS and for UTM. For these unique environments, IASMS SFCs are needed to address conditions such as hazardous payloads, micro-climates and urban canyons, and the need to keep uninvolved air traffic out of the area where DMFR operations are being conducted. The second phase of analysis focused on inferring the specific information needs and the SFCs for IASMS, utilizing a structure of 16 information classes to organize requirements. For each of the risks identified in the workshops, it was postulated what data sources would be necessary to monitor critical aspects of the risk (eg, surrounding air traffic, ground population, terrain, etc). to be directly measured as well as data that would be derived, which implies additional SFCs for different actors to understand what information would likely be exchanged between parties. For an IASMS to be effective, additional research is needed to develop the advanced algorithms that can address the increasingly autonomous and complex operations in differing environments and to develop means of identifying unknown risks. Looking at these scenarios highlighted a number of research issues. These include the ability to quickly "cordon off" airspace thru temporary flight restrictions (TFRs) or other means, developing clear definitions to enable automation-based algorithms for prioritizing operations, defining airspace density metrics, standardization of altitude reporting, and establishing a basis for safety data metrics definition and collection. This paper seeks to outline the development of an IASMS in the context of the DMFR scenarios and resulting demonstrations. Utilizing this contextual approach, NASA will generate recommendations for an assured safety framework for AAM operations that enables AAM operations to safely access the NAS.

In Time Aviation Safety Management System↗

Testing theories of Gravitation with the Interstellar Probe Radio Experiment

General Relativity (GR) will soon celebrate its 110th birthday, holding up against all experimental enquiry. Nonetheless, unification theories attempting to quantize gravity, such as string theory, are gaining footing. These hypothesize additional scalar, vector, and tensor long-range fields that couple to matter (Will, 2014), introducing violations to GR. Although such violations have never been detected, it is likely that GR will not be the ultimate theory of gravity. What is certain is that gravity tests are alive and well, pushing the validity of GR to new scales and accuracies, or -potentially- suggesting alternative routes for new physics. Building upon the legacy of Voyager and Pioneer missions, which demonstrated the capability to survive in the outer reaches of the solar system, the Interstellar Probe mission concept (McNutt et al., 2022) aims to characterise our heliosphere through state-of-the-art instrumentation, opening new frontiers also for GR testing. In this work, we investigate the possibility of constraining the Nordtvedt parameter η and the mass of the graviton via the Compton wavelength λc, by simulating the processing of 10 years of radiometric data from the Interstellar Probe. Station calibration and clock synchronisation, as well as limiting spacecraft precession manoeuvres are highlighted as key strategies for obtaining high-quality estimates. In the most favourable scenario, η can be constrained to less than 1.5 · 10 -5 , reducing the uncertainty obtained via Lunar Laser Ranging (Hofmann and Müller, 2018), and a lower bound of 1.4 ‧ 10 14 km is set for λc, improving the estimates obtained from planetary ephemerides (Bernus et al., 2020) and gravitational wave detection (Abbott et al., Jun 2021). Extending ranging measurement acquisition to 20 years improves the results tenfold. This experiment interrogates fundamental physics from a unique dynamical setting, investigating possible violations of the Equivalence Principle (EP) underlying GR.

general relativity↗

Cosmogenic nuclides in the Martian surface: Constraints for sample recovery and transport

Stable and radioactive cosmogenic nuclides and radiation damage effects such as cosmic ray tracks can provide information on the surface history of Mars. A recent overview on developments in cosmogenic nuclide research for historical studies of predominantly extraterrestrial materials was published previously. The information content of cosmogenic nuclides and radiation damage effects produced in the Martian surface is based on the different ways of interaction of the primary galactic and solar cosmic radiation (GCR, SCR) and the secondary particle cascade. Generally the kind and extent of interactions as seen in the products depend on the following factors: (1) composition, energy and intensity of the primary SCR and GCR; (2) composition, energy and intensity of the GCR-induced cascade of secondary particles; (3) the target geometry, i.e., the spatial parameters of Martian surface features with respect to the primary radiation source; (4) the target chemistry, i.e., the chemical composition of the Martian surface at the sampling location down to the minor element level or lower; and (5) duration of the exposure. These factors are not independent of each other and have a major influence on sample taking strategies and techniques.

Englert, Peter A. J.↗

Monocular Ranging for Small Unmanned Aerial Systems in the Far-Field

Recent proliferation of small Unmanned Aerial Systems (sUAS) applications requires onboard collision avoidance systems to mitigate the risk of collision with non-cooperative aircraft and manned aircraft, which may not see sUAS in time to perform an avoidance maneuver. An attractive avenue for onboard collision avoidance is the utilization of machine vision cameras due to their low size, weight and power (SWaP) requirements. In this paper, we characterize the range performance of a machine vision system developed in-house and mounted onto an sUAS. The technique was designed to estimate the performance of a sense-and-avoid system to ensure that the sensing components meet the well-clear requirements for the chosen platform and avoidance strategy. Experimental flight-test data was acquired from test-flights flown along multiple collision geometries for two intruders: a general Aviation (GA) aircraft and a fixed-wing sUAS. The ownship and both intruders were instrumented with inertial navigation systems (INS) recording position and attitude information. The range at first detection, 𝑹𝟎, was extracted from in-flight imagery of head-on collision course geometry synchronized with INS data from both aircraft and ground-truth values extracted from the raw imagery. This initial detection distance, 𝑹𝟎, scales with atmospheric attenuation. Therefore, under clear sky conditions, the derived 𝑹𝟎 value represents the upper bound on the detection range achievable by the test configuration of the detector. Results indicate that the maximum initial detection distance for a 4k resolution action camera fitted with a 41º Field of View (FOV) lens is 2.763 ± 0.037 km for a GA aircraft and 0.881 ± 0.061 km for a fixed-wing sUAS, respectively. The in results this study suggest that a vision-based detect and track system may be analyzed using the sensor characterization and contextualized within aircraft well-clear volumes.

Chester V. Dolph↗

An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal

The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.

Liou, Jer-Chyi↗

The Future Intensification of the North Atlantic Winter Storm Track: The Key Role of Dynamic Ocean Coupling

Climate models project an intensification of the wintertime North Atlantic storm track, over its downstream region, by the end of this century. Previous studies have suggested that ocean-atmosphere coupling plays a key role in this intensification, but the precise role of the different components of the coupling has not been explored and quantified. In this paper, using a hierarchy of ocean coupling experiments, we isolate and quantify the respective roles of thermodynamic (changes in surface heat fluxes) and dynamic (changes in ocean heat flux convergence) ocean coupling in the projected intensification of North Atlantic transient eddy kinetic energy (TEKE). We show that dynamic coupling accounts for nearly all of the future TEKE strengthening as it overcomes the much smaller effect of surface heat flux changes to weaken the TEKE. We further show that by reducing the Arctic amplification in the North Atlantic, ocean heat flux convergence increases the meridional temperature gradient aloft, causing a larger eddy growth rate, and resulting in the strengthening of North Atlantic TEKE. Our results stress the importance of better monitoring and investigating the changes in ocean heat transport, for improving climate change adaptation strategies.

North Atlantic winter storms↗

Fiber-Based Multi-Resolution Imaging and Multidimensional X-ray Diagnostics for Ejecta Dynamics in Plume Surface Interactions

The interaction of a rocket exhaust plume with a particulate-laden surface creates a complex, multiphase flow field that can destabilize the vehicle and damage nearby equipment. This study investigates two methods for capturing the particulate dynamics of plume-surface interaction (PSI): optical fiber-based multi-resolution Mie scattering and multi-dimensional X-ray radiography. Mie scattering was used to track PSI-interacted particles, trace their paths, and measure velocities. While effective for the jet periphery and early PSI stages, the technique becomes limited as the scattering cross-section increases over time due to particle displacement from the soil bed, causing the core to become optically dense and appear as a luminous, opaque region. To address this, X-ray radiography was explored as a complementary method for visualizing the optically dense core. PSI experiments were conducted with both reacting and non-reacting jets to evaluate these approaches across a range of optical and flow parameters. The results demonstrated the capability of the fiber-based multi-resolution imaging system to capture simultaneous fields of view at varying magnifications (1x, 2x, 4x), and the ability of X-ray imaging to penetrate the optically dense plume, revealing flow structures that would otherwise be obscured in scattering-based methods. Data were collected for various PSI parameters, including three different heights above the surface, to analyze the ejecta properties and the plume’s temporal evolution. These results provide the first imaging strategy capable of resolving flow structures over a wide spatial dynamic range while also offering the first visualization of the optically dense core.

Ejecta↗

Baseband pulse shaping techniques for nonlinearly amplified pi/4-QPSK and QAM systems

A new generation of multi-stage pi/4-shifted QPSK and of superposed quadrature-amplitude-modulated (SQAM) modulators-coherent demodulators (modems) and of continuous phase modulated (CPM)-gaussian premodulation filtered minimum-shift-keying (MGMSK) systems is proposed and studied. These modems will lead to bandwidth and power efficient satellite communications systems designs. As an illustrative application, a baseband processing technique pi/4-controlled transition PSK (pi/4-CTPSK) is described. To develop a cost and power efficient design strategy, we assume that nonlinear, fully saturated high power amplifiers (HPA) are utilized in the satellite earth station transmitter and in the satellite transponder. Modem structures which could lead to application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) satellite on-board processing universal modem applications are also considered. Multistate GMSK (i.e., MGMSK) signal generation methods by means of two or more RF combined nonlinearly amplified SQAM modems and by one multistate (in-phase and quadrature-baseband premodulation filtered-superposed) SQAM architecture and one RF nonlinear amplifier are studied. During the SQAM modem development phase we investigate the potential system advantages of the pi/4-shifted logic. The bandwidth efficiency of the proposed multistate GMSK and baseband filtered PAM-FM modulator (a new class in the CPM family) will be significantly higher than that of conventional G-MSK systems. To optimize the practical P(sub e) = f((E sub b)/(N sub o)) performance we consider improved coherent demodulation MGMSK structures such as deviated-frequency locking coherent demodulators. For relative low bit rate SATCOM applications, e.g., bit rates less than 300 kb/s, phase noise tracking cancellation (for fixed site earth station) and phase noise cancellation as well as Doppler compensation (for satellite to mobile earth station) applications may be required. We study digital channel sounding methods which could cancel the phase noise-caused degradations of CPM and GMSK modems.

Feher, Kamilo↗

Riley County Water Resources Project Summary - Comparing Runoff Curve Calculation Methods to Inform Local Resiliency Initiatives in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for land cover-specific CN and account for various farming techniques but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Improvements of VIIRS and MODIS Solar Diffuser and Lunar Calibration

Both VIIRS and MODIS instruments use solar diffuser (SD) and lunar observations to calibrate their reflective solar bands (RSB). A solar diffuser stability monitor (SDSM) is used to track the SD on-orbit degradation. On-orbit observations have shown similar wavelength-dependent SD degradation (larger at shorter VIS wavelengths) and SDSM detector response degradation (larger at longer NIR wavelengths) for both VIIRS and MODIS instruments. In general, the MODIS scan mirror has experienced more degradation in the VIS spectral region whereas the VIIRS rotating telescope assembly (RTA) mirrors have seen more degradation in the NIR and SWIR spectral region. Because of this wavelength dependent mirror degradation, the sensor's relative spectral response (RSR) needs to be modulated. Due to differences between the solar and lunar spectral irradiance, the modulated RSR could have different effects on the SD and lunar calibration. In this paper, we identify various factors that should be considered for the improvements of VIIRS and MODIS solar and lunar calibration and examine their potential impact. Specifically, we will characterize and assess the calibration impact due to SD and SDSM attenuation screen transmission (uncertainty), SD BRF uncertainty and onorbit degradation, SDSM detector response degradation, and modulated RSR resulting from the sensor's optics degradation. Also illustrated and discussed in this paper are the calibration strategies implemented in the VIIRS and MODIS SD and lunar calibrations and efforts that could be made for future improvements.

VIIRS↗

Tracking the Impacts of Precipitation Phase Changes Through the Hydrologic Cycle in Snowy Regions: From Precipitation to Reservoir Storage

Cool season precipitation plays a critical role in regional water resource management in the western United States. Throughout the twenty-first century, regional precipitation will be impacted by rising temperatures and changing circulation patterns. Changes to precipitation magnitude remain challenging to project; however, precipitation phase is largely dependent on temperature, and temperature predictions from global climate models are generally in agreement. To understand the implications of this dependence, we investigate projected patterns in changing precipitation phase for mountain areas of the western United States over the twenty-first century and how shifts from snow to rain may impact runoff. We downscale two bias-corrected global climate models for historical and end-century decades with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model to estimate precipitation phase and spatial patterns at high spatial resolution (9 km). For future decades, we use the RCP 8.5 scenario, which may be considered a very high baseline emissions scenario to quantify snow season differences over major mountain chains in the western U.S. Under this scenario, the average annual snowfall fraction over the Sierra Nevada decreases by >45% by the end of the century. In contrast, for the colder Rocky Mountains, the snowfall fraction decreases by 29%. Streamflow peaks in basins draining the Sierra Nevada are projected to arrive nearly a month earlier by the end of the century. By coupling WRF with a water resources model, we estimate that California reservoirs will shift towards earlier maximum storage by 1–2 months, suggesting that water management strategies will need to adapt to changes in streamflow magnitude and timing.

Melissa L. Wrzesien↗

Relating Land Cover Change to Runoff Distribution Using NASA Earth Observations in Riley County, Kansas

Riley County, Kansas, has observed increased levels of flooding, potentially due to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and seasonal vegetation variation. This study contrasts two methods of generating runoff curve numbers (CN) from 2006-2020. (1) The traditional Soil Conservation Service CN calculation method uses a look-up table and tracked LULC to determine runoff changes. These tables allow for CN values specific to various land and crop cover types and account for various farming best practices but lack flexibility in calculations for various seasons or plant health. (2) A dynamic method employs normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) compiled over the rainy season each year to calculate CN using seasonal vegetation. This method allows for a more precise analysis of runoff variability within and between rainy seasons because it can be updated with greater temporal detail and it captures higher spatial resolutions by using NDVI as a proxy for LULC. This study further uses inputs from the United States Geologic Survey (USGS) National Land Cover Database (NLCD), the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Cropland Data Layer, and Landsat imagery to create more precise LULC raster datasets including both urban cover and crop-specific land use and curve number maps of the area. Results can guide decision makers in the City of Manhattan, Riley County Department of Planning and Development, Riley County Conservation District, the Kansas Forest Service, and the Kansas Department of Health and Environment toward informed decisions on resiliency strategies to address future flooding.

Ella Griffith↗

Development and Evaluation of a Cloud-Gap-Filled MODIS Daily Snow-Cover Product

The utility of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow-cover products is limited by cloud cover which causes gaps in the daily snow-cover map products. We describe a cloud-gap-filled (CGF) daily snowcover map using a simple algorithm to track cloud persistence, to account for the uncertainty created by the age of the snow observation. Developed from the 0.050 resolution climate-modeling grid daily snow-cover product, MOD10C1, each grid cell of the CGF map provides a cloud-persistence count (CPC) that tells whether the current or a prior day was used to make the snow decision. Percentage of grid cells "observable" is shown to increase dramatically when prior days are considered. The effectiveness of the CGF product is evaluated by conducting a suite of data assimilation experiments using the community Noah land surface model in the NASA Land Information System (LIS) framework. The Noah model forecasts of snow conditions, such as snow-water equivalent (SWE), are updated based on the observations of snow cover which are obtained either from the MOD1 OC1 standard product or the new CGF product. The assimilation integrations using the CGF maps provide domain averaged bias improvement of -11 %, whereas such improvement using the standard MOD1 OC1 maps is -3%. These improvements suggest that the Noah model underestimates SWE and snow depth fields, and that the assimilation integrations contribute to correcting this systematic error. We conclude that the gap-filling strategy is an effective approach for increasing cloud-free observations of snow cover.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

GLGM-3: A Degree-ISO Lunar Gravity Model from the Historical Tracking Data of NASA Moon Orbiters

In preparation for the radio science experiment of the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) mission, we analyzed the available radio tracking data of previous NASA lunar orbiters. Our goal was to use these historical observations in combination with the new low-altitude data to be obtained by LRO. We performed Precision Orbit Determination on trajectory arcs from Lunar Orbiter 1 in 1966 to Lunar Prospector in 1998, using the GEODYN II program developed at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. We then created a set of normal equations and solved for the coefficients of a spherical harmonics expansion of the lunar gravity potential up to degree and order 150. The GLGM-3 solution obtained with a global Kaula constraint (2.5 x 10(exp -4)/sq l) shows good agreement with model LP150Q from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, especially over the nearside. The levels of data fit with both gravity models are very similar (Doppler RMS of approx.0.2 and approx. 1-2 mm/s in the nominal and extended phases, respectiVely). Orbit overlaps and uncertainties estimated from the covariance matrix also agree well. GLGM-3 shows better correlation with lunar topography and admittance over the nearside at high degrees of expansion (l > 100), particularly near the poles. We also present three companion solutions, obtained with the same data set but using alternate inversion strategies that modify the power law constraint and expectation of the individual spherical harmonics coefficients. We give a detailed discussion of the performance of this family of gravity field solutions in terms of observation fit, orbit quality, and geophysical consistency.

Mazarico, E.↗

A Sundial-Atlas Precursor to the TIMED Mission: A Quick-Response Global Investigation into Coupled Lower Thermospheric, Ionospheric, and Mesospheric Physics

The SUNDIAL-ATLAS effort was a global-scale investigation which responded to the science priorities of the ITM Panel, the Integrated SPD Strategy Implementation Plan as a whole, and the need for potential cost-saving design criteria for the TIMED mission. The investigation focused on coupling processes in the ionospheric-thermospheric system, taking advantage of the timelines of the ATLAS-1 mission (March 1992), and the global-scale ground-based measurement and modeling activities of the SUNDIAL program. The collaborative SUNDIAL-ATLAS activity was the first opportunity for global measurements of the chemistry, kinetics, and electrodynamics which couple the E-, Fl-, and F2-regions into a single interactive system. As such, the program represented an important first step in studying global issues; and accordingly, was an important proof of concept experiment relevant to the strategic mission plans for the ITM community and the upcoming intermediate class satellite program called TIMED. To meet its projected goals, TIMED must perform a number of critical measurements and execute a number of correlations that were to be tried and tested for the first time in the SUNDIAL-ATLAS investigation. This was designed to include global correlations of thermospheric and ionospheric composition during quiet and disturbed conditions and the co-registration of global-scale ground-based measurements with along-track satellite diagnostics. The SUNDIAL component of the current investigation addressed this need by acquiring, reducing, and analyzing a multi-sensor database that complemented and extended that which was generated in the ATLAS mission (Atmospheric Laboratory for Applications and Science). The SUNDIAL data defined the state and condition of the global-scale ionosphere in the altitude range from 100 km to the F2-peak. These data specified the peak heights and densities of the E-, Fl-, and F2-regions, along with the global distributions of intermediate, descending, and sequential layers which play a critical role in the dynamo region of the lower ionospheric-thermospheric domain. The data were collected by the SUNDIAL network of more than 50 ground-based stations utilizing ionosondes, radars, photometers, Fabry-Perot interferometers, and total electron content measurements. The data were acquired during a three-week period centered on the eight-day ATLAS-1 mission, which provided image and photometric sensing of the altitude distributions of the major and minor ions and neutrals in the ITM system. This report focuses on the scientific contributions of the SUNDIAL component of the overall investigation. Specific findings are described in seven papers (attached) published in the Journal of Geophysical Research.

Szuszczewicz, E. P.↗