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NASA NTRS2023

Potentially Underestimated Gas Flaring Activities—A New Approach to Detect Combustion Using Machine Learning and NASA’s Black Marble Product Suite

Monitoring changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission is critical for assessing climate mitigation efforts towards the Paris Agreement goal. A crucial aspect of science-based GHG monitoring is to provide objective information for quality assurance and uncertainty assessment of the reported emissions. Emission estimates from combustion events (gas flaring and biomass burning) are often calculated based on activity data (AD) from satellite observations, such as those detected from the visible infrared imaging radiometer suite (VIIRS) onboard the Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20 satellites. These estimates are often incorporated into carbon models for calculating emissions and removals. Consequently, errors and uncertainties associated with AD propagate into these models and impact emission estimates. Deriving uncertainty of AD is therefore crucial for transparency of emission estimates but remains a challenge due to the lack of evaluation data or alternate estimates. This work proposes a new approach using machine learning (ML) for combustion detection from NASA's Black Marble product suite and explores the assessment of potential uncertainties through comparison with existing detections. We jointly characterize combustion using thermal and light emission signals, with the latter improving detection of probable weaker combustion with less distinct thermal signatures. Being methodologically independent, the differences in ML-derived estimates with existing approaches can indicate the potential uncertainties in detection. The approach was applied to detect gas flares over the Eagle Ford Shale, Texas. We analyzed the spatio-temporal variations in detections and found that approximately 79.04% and 72.14% of the light emission-based detections are missed by ML-derived detections from VIIRS thermal bands and existing datasets, respectively. This improvement in combustion detection and scope for uncertainty assessment is essential for comprehensive monitoring of resulting emissions and we discuss the steps for extending this globally.

gas flaring↗

NASA NTRS2024

Development of a Data Fusion Methodology for Lineload Aerodynamic Databases for a Launch Vehicle during Liftoff and Transition

The need for databases for the distributed loading on launch vehicles during the early portion of flight necessitates the use of expensive computational flows in regimes where wake effects dominate. While also being expensive, this is a regime that computational tools tend to historically have problems simulating accurately. To help tackle this problem, a method of data fusion to combine computational results to wind tunnel derived force and moment data is developed. Using this method, significant reduction in computational costs and increases in confidence of the final product is possible and has been used to generate several databases for the Space Launch System (SLS) at NASA. While the full details of database generation are not part of this work, the crucial method at its core is developed here. Two SLS geometries are used throughout the work to demonstrate the techniques. These are two of the larger geometries and represent both planned crewed missions to the Moon as well as potential cargo missions to deep space. The method uses principal component analysis (PCA) to generate a reduced ordered model (ROM) to help fill in the full parameter space. Other similar techniques are explored, but were not found to have a significant result on the predictions of the ROM. Because the full number of components are kept to generate the model, this lack of difference is expected. This method is then extended to ensure that predicted surfaces match trusted force and moment data derived from wind tunnel testing. This extension is done by setting up a constrained optimization problem in order to minimize the deviation from the surface resolved computational data while still integrating to the desired values. When generating the constrained optimization problem, a weighting factor to balance these competing needs is introduced. The work compares previously introduced weighting terms from similar work to the proposed terms and shows that the previously used terms do not have as desirable behavior in this flow regime. This method is then expanded by developing a technique to incorporate uncertainty quantification into the developed data fusion methodology. This expansion takes a two pronged approach. One examines transferring the uncertainties in the force and moment database and characterizes how those adjustments change the predicted lineloads. The second looks at model form error and looks how rebuilding the model using slightly different data changes the predictions. These two terms are then combined in order to create an uncertainty model that takes both effects into account. The limitations of the proposed methods is then discussed as well as possible techniques to address these shortcomings.

Launch Vehicles↗

DOE OSTI2023

Fast and Thermal Neutron Spectrum Dosimetry Measurements in the Advanced Test Reactor large-B and small-I Positions Following the Sixth Core Internals Change-out [Slides]

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) has a wide variety of irradiation positions that have had experiments that were developed by users from around the world. Most experiment irradiations rely on thoroughly benchmarked numerical models. However, some irradiation positions in ATR are not as well- characterized and are complicated by spectral perturbations from control cylinder orientation. The “small I” and “large-B” irradiation positions are located nearby control cylinders and suffer from these flux perturbations from control cylinder orientations that change during an irradiation cycle to maintain the desired core power distribution. Models predicted that these types of position would exhibit both spectral shifts and amplitude changes in neutron flux, but few measurements have been conducted to benchmark these predictions. Recently, requalification testing was performed to confirm the operational readiness of the ATR following the completion of the Core Internals Change-out (CIC). These tests provided a unique opportunity to validate the analytical methods used to simulate the ATR because nearly all components in the reactor were in a clean as-built state, significantly reducing modelling uncertainties. One subset of the testing included characterization of the fast and thermal neutron flux in the “small-I” and “large-B” positions using silver, cobalt, and nickel neutron dosimetry. In contrast to typical irradiation cycles, the control cylinders were held in position during the post-CIC nuclear testing. The specific activity of these dosimeter wires was measured following two low-power tests with different control cylinder positions.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

DOE OSTI2024

A317_Fast and Thermal Neutron Spectrum Dosimetry Measurements in the Advanced Test Reactor large-B and small-I Positions Following the Sixth Core Internals Change-out

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Impact and Estimation of Uncertainty Correlation for Multi-Angle Polarimetric Remote Sensing of Aerosols and Ocean Color

Multi-angle polarimetric (MAP) measurements contain rich information for characterization of aerosol microphysical and optical properties that can be used to improve atmospheric correction in ocean color remote sensing. Advanced retrieval algorithms have been developed to obtain multiple geophysical parameters in the atmosphere-ocean system, although uncertainty correlation among measurements is generally ignored due to lack of knowledge on its strength and characterization. In this work, we provide a practical framework to evaluate the impact of the angular uncertainty correlation from retrieval results and a method to estimate correlation strength from retrieval fitting residuals. The Fast Multi-Angular Polarimetric Ocean coLor (FastMAPOL) retrieval algorithm, based on neural network forward models, is used to conduct the retrievals and uncertainty quantification. In addition, we also discuss a flexible approach to include a correlated uncertainty model in the retrieval algorithm. The impact of angular correlation on retrieval uncertainties is discussed based on synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 measurements using a Monte Carlo uncertainty estimation method. Correlation properties are estimated using auto-correlation functions based on the fitting residuals from both synthetic AirHARP and HARP2 data and real AirHARP measurement, with the resulting angular correlation parameters found to be larger than 0.9 and 0.8 for reflectance and DoLP, respectively, which correspond to correlation angles of 10° and 5°. Although this study focuses on angular correlation from HARP instruments, the methodology to study and quantify uncertainty correlation is also applicable to other instruments with angular, spectral, or spatial correlations, and can help inform laboratory calibration and characterization of the instrument uncertainty structure.

PACE↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Emissions Characterization and Smoke Transport of A Prescribed Fire

Under the background of climate change, vast regions of the world will face a hotter and probably drier future that favors ignition and spread of wildfires. This poses additional challenges to the communities who are fighting the ever-larger wildfires. Fire and smoke models are valuable tools to fire managers and decision-makers to mitigate the impact of fires. Existing fire modeling systems bear large uncertainties due to the difficulty in collecting data to characterize fire behavior and smoke transport. More observations are urgently needed for improvement of fire modeling and reduction in model uncertainty. The coordinated prescribed burn experiment, such as the Fire and Smoke Model and Measurement Evaluation Experiment (FSMMEE), will allow the concurrent collection of critical measurements of fuel, fire behavior, smoke, and meteorology to better understand and model fires. In this preliminary investigation, we employed the data from the prescribed burn experiment at Langdon Mountain, Utah, in November 2019, to reconstruct the fire emissions and characterize the smoke transport. The NASA Unified Weather Research and Forecasting Model (NU-WRF) was utilized to assist in identifying the potential pre-fire remote sensing capabilities, such as fuel load, moisture, and fire radiative power, which are helpful to model development and advancement. Along the way, two sets of NU-WRF experiments would be done by applying either a default fire emissions inventory (i.e., NASA’s Quick Fire Emissions Dataset, QFED) or reconstructed fire emissions using the data collected from the prescribed fire. The results would help answer the questions such as “How do reconstructed emissions compare to QFED emissions and their impact on plume transport”.

NU-WRF↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Probabilistic Blast Damage Modeling Uncertainties and Sensitivities

Blast overpressure is the predominant source of ground damage posed by potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. Estimates of the extent, severity, and likelihoods of potential blast damage regions will be one of the key metrics needed to mount civil defense or disaster response plans in the face of an impending impact. However, there are many inherent sources of uncertainty in evaluating the damage, both in characterizing the properties of the incoming object and in the approaches used to model the entry/impact and resulting damage, which make it difficult to produce a single ‘accurate’ or ‘best guess’ prediction of ground damage. The current 2021 PDC hypothetical impact scenario poses a particular challenge due to its short warning time. The need for rapid disaster response to prepare for an immanent impact, combined with lack of observational opportunities to refine basic knowledge about the object’s basic size and properties, make understanding the range and relative likelihood of consequences particularly critical. The potential damage caused by these blasts can be evaluated using a range of modeling and simulation approaches and levels of fidelity. Fast-running engineering-level models can be used to run large numbers of probabilistically sampled cases covering wide variations of uncertain properties or parameters. High-fidelity simulations, on the other hand, can capture more detailed/accurate blast physics, but can only be performed for a small selection of specific cases, requiring many assumptions to be made about the initial object and its unpredictable entry/breakup characteristics. In order to provide a more complete picture of the potential threat for effective disaster response, both types of analysis need to be employed together. In this approach, high-fidelity simulations are used to refine and anchor engineering models, and the probabilistic engineering models are used to evaluate broad parameters spaces and guide selection of the most pertinent simulation cases for a given scenario. This presentation expands upon the probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessments being performed as part of the 2021 PDC hypothetical impact exercise, focusing on key aspects of blast damage modeling uncertainties and sensitivities. We review the current modeling and simulation approaches employed in the current assessment, compare the relative levels of uncertainty stemming from each main element of the problem (i.e., knowledge of the asteroid properties, modeling of the atmospheric entry/breakup and airburst, and estimates of the ground damage from the resulting blasts waves), and highlight any notable trends and sensitivities for the current scenario case.

SMD↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Absolute Characterization of Gravity Sag

G-release –defined as the knowledge uncertainty of a mirror’s gravity-sag or the residual error between the mirror’s predicted and actual on-orbit shape –is a critical error budget element for space telescopes. For a UV/Optical telescope, G-release needs to be less than 4 nm rms. Absolute metrology techniques developed for high-accuracy optical surface testing can be used for characterizing gravity-sag of space optics. This paper presents the importance of gravity sag for space optics and reviews methods for its compensation, characterization or correction.

H Philip Stahl↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validation of the MODIS "Clear-Sky" Surface Temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet

Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented from 1981 to present. We extend and refine this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. To permit changes to be observed over time, we are developing a well-characterized monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites. We use the MODIS ice-surface temperature (IST) algorithm. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between the Terra and Aqua IST maps; 2) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 3) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 4) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. In this work, we focus on 1) and 2) above. Surface temperatures on the Greenland Ice Sheet have been studied on the ground, using automatic weather station (AWS) data from the Greenland-Climate Network (GC-Net), and from analysis of satellite sensor data. Using Advanced Very High Frequency Radiometer (AVHRR) weekly surface temperature maps, warming of the surface of the Greenland Ice Sheet has been documented from 1981 to present. We extend and refine this record using higher-resolution Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data from March 2000 to the present. To permit changes to be observed over time, we are developing a well-characterized monthly climate-data record (CDR) of the "clear-sky" surface temperature of the Greenland Ice Sheet using data from both the Terra and Aqua satellites. We use the MODIS ice-surface temperature (IST) algorithm. Validation of the CDR consists of several facets: 1) comparisons between the Terra and Aqua IST maps; 2) comparisons between ISTs and in-situ measurements; 3) comparisons between ISTs and AWS data; and 4) comparisons of ISTs with surface temperatures derived from other satellite instruments such as the Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer. In this work, we focus on 1) and 2) above. First we provide comparisons between Terra and Aqua swath-based ISTs at approximately 14:00 Local Solar Time, reprojected to 12.5 km polar stereographic cells. Results show good correspondence when Terra and Aqua data were acquired within 2 hrs of each other. For example, for a cell centered over Summit Camp (72.58 N, 38.5 W), the average agreement between Terra and Aqua ISTs is 0.74 K (February 2003), 0.47 K (April 2003), 0.7 K (August 2003) and 0.96 K (October 2003) with the Terra ISTs being generally lower than the Aqua ISTs. More precise comparisons will be calculated using pixel data at the swath level, and correspondence between Terra and Aqua IST is expected to be closer. (Because of cloud cover and other considerations, only a few common cloud-free swaths are typically available for each month for comparison.) Additionally, previous work comparing land-surface temperatures (LSTs) from the standard MODIS LST product and in-situ surface-temperature data at Summit Camp on the Greenland Ice Sheet show that Terra MODIS LSTs are about 3 K lower than in-situ temperatures at Summit Camp, during the winter of 2008-09. This work will be repeated using both Terra and Aqua IST pixel data (in place of LST data). In conclusion, we demonstrate that the uncertainties in the CDR will be well characterized as we work through the various facets of its validation.

Hall, Dorothy K.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model for Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (Rev. 0)

A new, revised three-dimensional (3-D) hydrostratigraphic framework model (HFM) for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units 101 and 102 was completed in 2019. The initial (Phase I) model was completed in 2002 and was documented in A Hydrostratigraphic Model and Alternatives for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada (BN, 2002). Subsequent flow and transport modeling revealed the need to collect additional data to reduce uncertainties. The Phase II data collection and characterization effort included extensive well drilling and testing activities, and rebuilding of the Phase I 3-D HFM, resulting in the Phase II HFM (NSTec, 2014). Further drilling (Well ER-20-12), data collection, and interpretive work (e.g., Thirsty Canyon Lineament [Wurtz and Day, 2018]) were incorporated into the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) HFM. The PM-OV HFM incorporates the area of interest from the Phase II HFM and adds additional areas, primarily to the north and west with minor additions to the south and east. The new, expanded area matches the PM-OV groundwater basin as defined in Fenelon et al. (2016) and includes Pahute Mesa, a former nuclear testing area at the Nevada National Security Site; and Oasis Valley, a groundwater discharge area downgradient from contaminant source areas on Pahute Mesa. The data and information necessary to build the PM-OV HFM are provided in Navarro (2019). The PM-OV HFM will be used by hydrologic modelers who are tasked with developing a model to determine how contaminants are transported by groundwater flow in an area of complex geology. The model area is large (more than 6,250 square kilometers) and geologically complex, including Paleozoic- to Mesozoic-age structures (e.g., thrust faults, Thirsty Canyon Lineament), at least seven Tertiary-age calderas, several intrusive bodies, and many relatively recent basin-and-range normal faults. Investigators from the U.S. Geological Survey; National Security Technologies, LLC; National Laboratories; and U.S. Department of Energy contractors have organized the more than 300 volcanic units and other rocks in the model area into 77 hydrostratigraphic units (HSUs). The volcanic rocks are subdivided into 42 aquifers, 11 confining units, and 9 composite units (containing both aquifer and confining unit rocks). The underlying pre-Tertiary rocks were divided into 5 HSUs, comprising 2 aquifers and 3 confining units. The model also includes 1 alluvial aquifer unit, 8 intrusive confining units, and 1 granite confining unit. The model depicts the thickness, extent, and geometric relationships of these HSUs (“layers” in the model) along with all the major structural features that control them, including calderas and faults. The most substantive differences between the Phase II HFM and the PM-OVHFM include (1) addition of the new data and resulting revised interpretations from the additional area encompassed by the PM-OV groundwater basin; (2) incorporation of 16 new faults; (3) 12 boreholes from the northern extension; (4) 2 additional caldera-collapse collars; and (5) correlation of the simulated faulting and hydrostratigraphy in the eastern part of the model domain with the delineations represented in the neighboring Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain HFM-Prime and Yucca Flat-Climax Mine HFM. All PM-OV HFM delineations were based on published and unpublished data from geophysical investigations, surface geologic maps, and drill-hole records. Phase II approached model uncertainty using the model-building software to test model configurations and hydrologic consequences using a range of values for parameters such as fault offset amounts and HSU elevations. The PM-OV HFM expands on this approach to encompass the entire PM-OV groundwater basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Pre-launch Radiometric Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis of Landsat Thermal Infrared Sensor 2

The Thermal Infrared Sensor-2 that will be on-board Landsat 9 has undergone a pre-launch testing campaign to characterize its radiometric, spectral, and spatial performance and demonstrate compliance to its requirements. This work reviews key elements of the instrument-level radiometric testing using an SI traceable source to derive its uncertainties. Those arising from on-orbit calibration using the TIRS-2 on-board blackbody are also discussed. We use a Monte Carlo approach to propagate the uncertainties through a non-linear calibration equation and address both random and systematic uncertainty terms. Achieving the required performance demonstrates the instrument’s potential for enhancing our understanding of the Earth’s environment.

Landsat↗

NASA NTRS2023

Characterization of Errors in Satellite-Based HCHO/NO 2 Tropospheric Column Ratios With Respect to Chemistry, Column-to-PBL Translation, Spatial Representation, and Retrieval Uncertainties

The availability of formaldehyde (HCHO) (a proxy for volatile organic compound reactivity) and nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) (a proxy for nitrogen oxides) tropospheric columns from ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) satellites has motivated many to use their ratios to gain some insights into the near-surface ozone sensitivity. Strong emphasis has been placed on the challenges that come with transforming what is being observed in the tropospheric column to what is actually in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) and near the surface; however, little attention has been paid to other sources of error such as chemistry, spatial representation, and retrieval uncertainties. Here we leverage a wide spectrum of tools and data to quantify those errors carefully. Concerning the chemistry error, a well-characterized box model constrained by more than 500 h of aircraft data from NASA's air quality campaigns is used to simulate the ratio of the chemical loss of HO 2 + RO 2 (LRO x ) to the chemical loss of NO x (LNO x ). Subsequently, we challenge the predictive power of HCHO/NO 2 ratios (FNRs), which are commonly applied in current research, in detecting the underlying ozone regimes by comparing them to LRO x /LNO x . FNRs show a strongly linear (R 2 =0.94) relationship with LRO x /LNO x , but only on the logarithmic scale. Following the baseline (i.e., ln(LRO x /LNO x ) = −1.0 ± 0.2) with the model and mechanism (CB06, r2) used for segregating NO x -sensitive from VOC-sensitive regimes, we observe a broad range of FNR thresholds ranging from 1 to 4. The transitioning ratios strictly follow a Gaussian distribution with a mean and standard deviation of 1.8 and 0.4, respectively. This implies that the FNR has an inherent 20 % standard error (1σ) resulting from not accurately describing the RO x –HO x cycle. We calculate high ozone production rates (PO 3 ) dominated by large HCHO × NO 2 concentration levels, a new proxy for the abundance of ozone precursors. The relationship between PO 3 and HCHO × NO 2 becomes more pronounced when moving towards NO x -sensitive regions due to nonlinear chemistry; our results indicate that there is fruitful information in the HCHO × NO 2 metric that has not been utilized in ozone studies. The vast amount of vertical information on HCHO and NO 2 concentrations from the air quality campaigns enables us to parameterize the vertical shapes of FNRs using a second-order rational function permitting an analytical solution for an altitude adjustment factor to partition the tropospheric columns into the PBL region. We propose a mathematical solution to the spatial representation error based on modeling isotropic semivariograms. Based on summertime-averaged data, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) loses 12 % of its spatial information at its native resolution with respect to a high-resolution sensor like the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) (> 5.5 × 3.5 km 2 ). A pixel with a grid size of 216 km 2 fails at capturing ∼ 65 % of the spatial information in FNRs at a 50 km length scale comparable to the size of a large urban center (e.g., Los Angeles). We ultimately leverage a large suite of in situ and ground-based remote sensing measurements to draw the error distributions of daily TROPOMI and OMI tropospheric NO 2 and HCHO columns. At a 68 % confidence interval (1σ), errors pertaining to daily TROPOMI observations, either HCHO or tropospheric NO 2 columns, should be above 1.2–1.5 × 10 16 molec. cm −2 to attain a 20 %–30 % standard error in the ratio. This level of error is almost non-achievable with the OMI given its large error in HCHO. The satellite column retrieval error is the largest contributor to the total error (40 %–90 %) in the FNRs. Due to a stronger signal in cities, the total relative error (< 50 %) tends to be mild, whereas areas with low vegetation and anthropogenic sources (e.g., the Rocky Mountains) are markedly uncertain (> 100 %). Our study suggests that continuing development in the retrieval algorithm and sensor design and calibration is essential to be able to advance the application of FNRs beyond a qualitative metric.

Amir H. Souri↗

DOE OSTI2022

Absolute Energy Measurements with Superconducting Transition-Edge Sensors for Muonic X-ray Spectroscopy at 44 keV

Superconducting transition-edge sensor (TES) microcalorimeters have great utility in X-ray applications owing to their high energy resolution, good collecting efficiency and the feasibility of being multiplexed into large arrays. In this work, we develop hard X-ray TESs to measure the absolute energies of muonic-argon (R-Ar) transition lines around 44 keV and 20 keV. TESs with sidecar absorbers of different heat capacities were fabricated and characterized for their energy resolution and calibration uncertainty. Here, we achieved similar to 1 eV absolute energy measurement accuracy at 44 keV, and < 12 eV energy resolution at 17.5 keV.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessment of Model Hub Height Wind Speed Performance Using DOE Lidar Buoy Data

As the offshore wind industry continues to gain momentum both in the U.S. and globally, reanalysis products remain essential tools for the lifecycle of a wind farm. From project siting and production estimates to determining construction and maintenance windows, reanalysis products play an important role. These regional and global long-term models also serve as inputs to higher resolution models. With such wide-ranging impacts on the offshore wind industry, the need for validation of reanalysis products is strong, particularly at typical turbine hub heights. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinelTM buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) in order to collect meteorological and oceanographic data, including hub height wind speed, in areas of interest for offshore wind development. This work uses DOE buoy observations off the coasts of New Jersey and Virginia to evaluate the performance of Modern Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications-2 (MERRA-2), the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis 5th generation (ERA5), and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) assimilation system Rapid Refresh (RAP). Biases and degrees of correspondence are determined for each reanalysis product in order to provide insights on the performance and uncertainty for long-term wind resource characterization. With the baseline metrics determined, this work proceeds with an investigation into the sources of large deviations between the modeled and observed hub height wind speeds during the East Coast lidar buoy deployments. Consistent sources of reanalysis model error include stably stratified flow conditions, high wind shear, flow parallel to the coastline, and tropical and winter storms. For the near shore New Jersey location, offshore winds (i.e. blowing from land to water) tend to be associated with model overestimation of observed hub height wind speed, while winds parallel to the coastline are correlated with model underestimation of wind speed. Similarly, near the Virginia buoy, during southerly winds (parallel to the coastline) models underestimate the observed wind speed due to coastal upwelling. Reanalysis model wind speeds underestimate the hub height winds with increasing stable atmospheric stratification. Reanalysis model biases are seen when the observed wind speeds approach or exceed typical turbine cut-out speeds (around 20 m s-1). Large model errors during winter and tropical storm events, high wind speed events, and ramp events are often the result of wind speed timing and magnitude offsets. Overall, ERA5 provides the most successful representation of observed offshore hub height wind speeds at the U.S. East Coast buoy locations and is therefore best suited as an input boundary condition for model case studies. ERA5 performs well for a variety of atmospheric phenomena, including storms and sea breezes, however RAP, the next most successful reanalysis model, performs best in capturing the frequency of ramp events.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

LANL end of the year report (2023)

This report summarizes the advances made by LANL in the XMAT-H2 program over FY23. In summary LANL was tasked with leading efforts related to (1) the development of models predicting hydrogen (H) redistribution within polycrystals (H redistribution model), (2) the development of models for the mechanical performance of metals/steels under H environments (Model for H effects on plasticity), The development of a framework to quantify the uncertainty in model parameters (Uncertainty in model parameters), (3) small scale characterization of the mechanical response of 347H (Microstructure characterization).

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1980

Analysis of air quality management with emphasis on transportation sources

The current environment and practices of air quality management were examined for three regions: Denver, Phoenix, and the South Coast Air Basin of California. These regions were chosen because the majority of their air pollution emissions are related to mobile sources. The impact of auto exhaust on the air quality management process is characterized and assessed. An examination of the uncertainties in air pollutant measurements, emission inventories, meteorological parameters, atmospheric chemistry, and air quality simulation models is performed. The implications of these uncertainties to current air quality management practices is discussed. A set of corrective actions are recommended to reduce these uncertainties.

English, T. D.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples, volume 1

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes. These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗

NASA NTRS1992

An improved approach for flight readiness certification: Methodology for failure risk assessment and application examples. Volume 2: Software documentation

An improved methodology for quantitatively evaluating failure risk of spaceflight systems to assess flight readiness and identify risk control measures is presented. This methodology, called Probabilistic Failure Assessment (PFA), combines operating experience from tests and flights with engineering analysis to estimate failure risk. The PFA methodology is of particular value when information on which to base an assessment of failure risk, including test experience and knowledge of parameters used in engineering analyses of failure phenomena, is expensive or difficult to acquire. The PFA methodology is a prescribed statistical structure in which engineering analysis models that characterize failure phenomena are used conjointly with uncertainties about analysis parameters and/or modeling accuracy to estimate failure probability distributions for specific failure modes, These distributions can then be modified, by means of statistical procedures of the PFA methodology, to reflect any test or flight experience. Conventional engineering analysis models currently employed for design of failure prediction are used in this methodology. The PFA methodology is described and examples of its application are presented. Conventional approaches to failure risk evaluation for spaceflight systems are discussed, and the rationale for the approach taken in the PFA methodology is presented. The statistical methods, engineering models, and computer software used in fatigue failure mode applications are thoroughly documented.

Moore, N. R.↗