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NASA NTRS2013

Development and Testing of a Variable Conductance Thermal Acquisition, Transport, and Switching System

This paper describes the development and testing of a scalable thermal management architecture for instruments, subsystems, or systems that must operate in severe space environments with wide variations in sink temperature. The architecture involves a serial linkage of one or more hot-side variable conductance heat pipes (VCHPs) to one or more cold-side loop heat pipes (LHPs). The VCHPs provide wide area heat acquisition, limited distance thermal transport, modest against gravity pumping, concentrated LHP startup heating, and high switching ratio variable conductance operation. The LHPs provide localized heat acquisition, long distance thermal transport, significant against gravity pumping, and high switching ratio variable conductance operation. The single-VCHP, single-LHP system described herein was developed to maintain thermal control of a small robotic lunar lander throughout the lunar day-night thermal cycle. It is also applicable to other variable heat rejection space missions in severe environments. Operationally, despite a 60-70% gas blocked VCHP condenser during ON testing, the system was still able to provide 2-4 W/K ON conductance, 0.01 W/K OFF conductance, and an end-to-end switching ratio of 200-400. The paper provides a detailed analysis of VCHP condenser performance, which quantified the gas blockage situation. Future multi-VCHP/multi-LHP thermal management system concepts that provide power/transport length scalability are also discussed.

Bugby, David C.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Iidentification of Robust Teleconnections to East African Rainfall Variability in Observations and Models

Providing advance warning of East African rainfall variations is a particular focus of several groups including those participating in the Famine Early Warming Systems Network. Both seasonal and long-term model projections of climate variability are being used to examine the societal impacts of hydrometeorological variability on seasonal to interannual and longer time scales. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of both seasonal and climate model projections to develop downscaled scenarios for using in impact modeling. The utility of these projections is reliant on the ability of current models to capture the embedded relationships between East African rainfall and evolving forcing within the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land climate system. Previous studies have posited relationships between variations in El Niño, the Walker circulation, Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and anthropogenic forcing. This study applies machine learning methods (e.g. clustering, probabilistic graphical model, nonlinear PCA) to observational datasets in an attempt to expose the importance of local and remote forcing mechanisms of East African rainfall variability. The ability of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS5) coupled model to capture the associated relationships will be evaluated using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations.

Roberts, J. Brent↗
NASA NTRS2013

Variability in the Speed of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation as Observed by Aura/MLS

We use Aura/MLS stratospheric water vapour (H2O) measurements as tracer for dynamics and infer interannual variations in the speed of the Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) from 2004 to 2011. We correlate one-year time series of H2O in the lower stratosphere at two subsequent pressure levels (68 hPa, approx.18.8 km and 56 hPa, approx 19.9 km at the Equator) and determine the time lag for best correlation. The same calculation is made on the horizontal on the 100 hPa (approx 16.6 km) level by correlating the H2O time series at the Equator with the ones at 40 N and 40 S. From these lag coefficients we derive the vertical and horizontal speeds of the BDC in the tropics and extra-tropics, respectively. We observe a clear interannual variability of the vertical and horizontal branch. The variability reflects signatures of the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO). Our measurements confirm the QBO meridional circulation anomalies and show that the speed variations in the two branches of the BDC are out of phase and fairly well anti-correlated. Maximum ascent rates are found during the QBO easterly phase. We also find that transport of H2O towards the Northern Hemisphere (NH) is on the average two times faster than to the Southern Hemisphere (SH) with a mean speed of 1.15m/s at 100 hPa. Furthermore, the speed towards the NH shows much more interannual variability with an amplitude of about 21% whilst the speed towards the SH varies by only 10 %. An amplitude of 21% is also observed in the variability of the ascent rate at the Equator which is on the average 0.2mm/s.

Brewer-Dobson circulation↗
NASA NTRS2013

Associating Long-term Gamma-ray Variability with the Superorbital Period of LS I + 61 Deg. 303

Gamma-ray binaries are stellar systems for which the spectral energy distribution (discounting the thermal stellar emission) peaks at high energies. Detected from radio to TeV gamma rays, the gamma-ray binary LS I + 61◦303 is highly variable across all frequencies. One aspect of this system's variability is the modulation of its emission with the timescale set by the approx. 26.4960 day orbital period. Here we show that, during the time of our observations, the gamma-ray emission of LS I + 61 deg. 303 also presents a sinusoidal variability consistent with the previously known superorbital period of 1667 days. This modulation is more prominently seen at orbital phases around apastron, whereas it does not introduce a visible change close to periastron. It is also found in the appearance and disappearance of variability at the orbital period in the power spectrum of the data. This behavior could be explained by a quasi-cyclical evolution of the equatorial outflow of the Be companion star, whose features influence the conditions for generating gamma rays. These findings open the possibility to use gamma-ray observations to study the outflows of massive stars in eccentric binary systems.

Be↗
NASA NTRS2014

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

Thrust↗
NASA NTRS2013

An Extremely Luminous and Variable Ultraluminous X-ray Source in the Outskirts of Circinus Observed with Nustar

Following a serendipitous detection with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR), we present a multiepoch spectral and temporal analysis of an extreme ultraluminous X-ray source (ULX) located in the outskirts of the Circinus galaxy, hereafter Circinus ULX5, including coordinated XMM-Newton+NuSTAR follow-up observations. The NuSTAR data presented here represent one of the first instances of a ULX reliably detected at hard (E greater than 10 keV) X-rays. CircinusULX5is variable on long time scales by at least a factor of approx. 5 in flux, and was caught in a historically bright state during our 2013 observations (0.3-30.0 keV luminosity of 1.6 × 10(exp 40) erg s(exp−1)). During this epoch, the source displayed a curved 3-10 keV spectrum, broadly similar to other bright ULXs. Although pure thermal models result in a high energy excess in the NuSTAR data, this excess is too weak to be modeled with the disk reflection interpretation previously proposed to explain the 3-10 keV curvature in other ULXs. In addition to flux variability, clear spectral variability is also observed. While in many cases the interpretation of spectral components in ULXs is uncertain, the spectral and temporal properties of all the high quality data sets currently available strongly support a simple disk-corona model reminiscent of that invoked for Galactic binaries, with the accretion disk becoming more prominent as the luminosity increases. However, although the disk temperature and luminosity are well correlated across all time scales currently probed, the observed luminosity follows L alpha T (exp 1.70+/-0.17), flatter than expected for simple blackbody radiation. The spectral variability displayed here is highly reminiscent of that observed from known Galactic black hole binaries (BHBs) at high luminosities. This comparison implies a black hole mass of approx. 90M for Circinus ULX5. However, given the diverse behavior observed from Galactic BHB accretion disks, this mass estimate is still uncertain. Finally, the limits placed on any undetected iron absorption features with the 2013 data set imply that we are not viewing the central regions of Circinus ULX5 through any extreme super-Eddington outflow.

black hole physics↗
NASA NTRS2014

Relating Jet Structure to Photometric Variability: the Herbig Ae Star HD 163296

Herbig Ae/Be stars are intermediate-mass pre-main sequence stars surrounded by circumstellar dust disks. Some are observed to produce jets, whose appearance as a sequence of shock fronts (knots) suggests a past episodic outflow variability. This "jet fossil record" can be used to reconstruct the outflow history. We present the first optical to near-infrared (NIR) spectra of the jet from the Herbig Ae star HD 163296, obtained with VLT/X-shooter. We determine the physical conditions in the knots and also their kinematic "launch epochs". Knots are formed simultaneously on either side of the disk, with a regular interval of ∼16 yr. The velocity dispersion versus jet velocity and the energy input are comparable between both lobes. However, the mass-loss rate, velocity, and shock conditions are asymmetric. We find ˙M(jet)/ ˙M(acc) is approximately 0.01−0.1, which is consistent with magneto-centrifugal jet launching models. No evidence of any dust is found in the high-velocity jet, suggesting a launch region within the sublimation radius (greater than 0.5 au). The jet inclination measured from proper motions and radial velocities confirms that it is perpendicular to the disk. A tentative relation is found between the structure of the jet and the photometric variability of the central source. Episodes of NIR brightening were previously detected and attributed to a dusty disk wind. We report for the first time significant optical fadings lasting from a few days up to a year, coinciding with the NIR brightenings. These are very likely caused by dust lifted high above the disk plane, and this supports the disk wind scenario. The disk wind is launched at a larger radius than the high-velocity atomic jet, although their outflow variability may have a common origin. No significant relation between outflow and accretion variability could be established. Our findings confirm that this source undergoes periodic ejection events, which may be coupled with dust ejections above the disk plane.

kinematic launch epochs↗
NASA NTRS2015

Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling of a Supersonic Nozzle and Integration into a Variable Cycle Engine Model

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for a variable cycle turbofan engine and nozzle that can be integrated with an overall vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) model. A previously developed variable cycle turbofan engine model is used for this study and is enhanced here to include variable guide vanes allowing for operation across the supersonic flight regime. The primary focus of this study is to improve the fidelity of the model's thrust response by replacing the simple choked flow equation convergent-divergent nozzle model with a MacCormack method based quasi-1D model. The dynamic response of the nozzle model using the MacCormack method is verified by comparing it against a model of the nozzle using the conservation element/solution element method. A methodology is also presented for the integration of the MacCormack nozzle model with the variable cycle engine.

Control Theory↗
NASA NTRS2015

Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions for Converting Surface Strains into Deflections for Structural Deformed Shape Predictions

Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions were formulated for shape predictions of complex wing structures, for which surface strain-sensing stations must be properly distributed to avoid jointed junctures, and must be increased in the high strain gradient region. Each embedded beam (depth-wise cross section of structure along a surface strain-sensing line) was discretized into small variable domains. Thus, the surface strain distribution can be described with a piecewise linear or a piecewise nonlinear function. Through discretization, the embedded beam curvature equation can be piece-wisely integrated to obtain the Variable-Domain Displacement Transfer Functions (for each embedded beam), which are expressed in terms of geometrical parameters of the embedded beam and the surface strains along the strain-sensing line. By inputting the surface strain data into the Displacement Transfer Functions, slopes and deflections along each embedded beam can be calculated for mapping out overall structural deformed shapes. A long tapered cantilever tubular beam was chosen for shape prediction analysis. The input surface strains were analytically generated from finite-element analysis. The shape prediction accuracies of the Variable- Domain Displacement Transfer Functions were then determined in light of the finite-element generated slopes and deflections, and were fofound to be comparable to the accuracies of the constant-domain Displacement Transfer Functions

displacement transfer functions↗
NASA NTRS2008

Comparison of TID Effects in Space-Like Variable Dose Rates and Constant Dose Rates

The degradation of the LM193 dual voltage comparator has been studied at different TID dose rate profiles, including several different constant dose rates and a variable dose rate that simulates the behavior of a solar flare. A comparison of results following constant dose rate vs. variable dose rates is made to explore how well the constant dose rates used for typical part testing predict the performance during a simulated space-like mission. Testing at a constant dose rate equal to the lowest dose rate seen during the simulated flare provides an extremely conservative estimate of the overall amount of degradation. A constant dose rate equal to the average dose rate is also more conservative than the variable rate. It appears that, for this part, weighting the dose rates by the amount of total dose received at each rate (rather than the amount of time at each dose rate) results in an average rate that produces an amount of degradation that is a reasonable approximation to that received by the variable rate.

Solar Flare↗
NASA NTRS2014

The Variable Hard X-Ray Emission of NGC4945 as Observed by NuSTAR

We present a broadband (approx. 0.5 - 79 keV) spectral and temporal analysis of multiple NuSTAR observations combined with archival Suzaku and Chandra data of NGC4945, the brightest extragalactic source at 100 keV. We observe hard X-ray (> 10 keV) flux and spectral variability, with flux variations of a factor 2 on timescales of 20 ksec. A variable primary continuum dominates the high energy spectrum (> 10 keV) in all the states, while the reflected/scattered flux which dominates at E< 10 keV stays approximately constant. From modelling the complex reflection/transmission spectrum we derive a Compton depth along the line of sight of Thomson approx.2.9, and a global covering factor for the circumnuclear gas of approx. 0.15. This agrees with the constraints derived from the high energy variability, which implies that most of the high energy flux is transmitted, rather that Compton-scattered. This demonstrates the effectiveness of spectral analysis in constraining the geometric properties of the circumnuclear gas, and validates similar methods used for analyzing the spectra of other bright, Compton-thick AGN. The lower limits on the e-folding energy are between 200 − 300 keV, consistent with previous BeppoSAX, Suzaku and Swift BAT observations. The accretion rate, estimated from the X-ray luminosity and assuming a bolometric correction typical of type 2 AGN, is in the range approx. 0.1 − 0.3 lambda(sub Edd) depending on the flux state. The substantial observed X-ray luminosity variability of NGC4945 implies that large errors can arise from using single-epoch X-ray data to derive L/L(sub Edd) values for obscured AGNs.

galaxies: active aEuro" galaxies: individual (NGC4↗
NASA NTRS2014

Evaluation of a Variable-Impedance Ceramic Matrix Composite Acoustic Liner

As a result of significant progress in the reduction of fan and jet noise, there is growing concern regarding core noise. One method for achieving core noise reduction is via the use of acoustic liners. However, these liners must be constructed with materials suitable for high temperature environments and should be designed for optimum absorption of the broadband core noise spectrum. This paper presents results of tests conducted in the NASA Langley Liner Technology Facility to evaluate a variable-impedance ceramic matrix composite acoustic liner that offers the potential to achieve each of these goals. One concern is the porosity of the ceramic matrix composite material, and whether this might affect the predictability of liners constructed with this material. Comparisons between two variable-depth liners, one constructed with ceramic matrix composite material and the other constructed via stereolithography, are used to demonstrate this material porosity is not a concern. Also, some interesting observations are noted regarding the orientation of variable-depth liners. Finally, two propagation codes are validated via comparisons of predicted and measured acoustic pressure profiles for a variable-depth liner.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluation of Variable-Depth Liner Configurations for Increased Broadband Noise Reduction

This paper explores the effects of variable-depth geometry on the amount of noise reduction that can be achieved with acoustic liners. Results for two variable-depth liners tested in the NASA Langley Grazing Flow Impedance Tube demonstrate significant broadband noise reduction. An impedance prediction model is combined with two propagation codes to predict corresponding sound pressure level profiles over the length of the Grazing Flow Impedance Tube. The comparison of measured and predicted sound pressure level profiles is sufficiently favorable to support use of these tools for investigation of a number of proposed variable-depth liner configurations. Predicted sound pressure level profiles for these proposed configurations reveal a number of interesting features. Liner orientation clearly affects the sound pressure level profile over the length of the liner, but the effect on the total attenuation is less pronounced. The axial extent of attenuation at an individual frequency continues well beyond the location where the liner depth is optimally tuned to the quarter-wavelength of that frequency. The sound pressure level profile is significantly affected by the way in which variable-depth segments are distributed over the length of the liner. Given the broadband noise reduction capability for these liner configurations, further development of impedance prediction models and propagation codes specifically tuned for this application is warranted.

Jones, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Actual and Potential Building Climate Zone Change and Variability From the Last 30 Years Through 2100 Using NASA's MERRA and CMIP5 Simulations

Background: In the US, residential and commercial building infrastructure combined consumes about 40% of total energy usage and emits about 39% of total CO2 emission (DOE/EIA "Annual Energy Outlook 2013"). Building codes, as used by local and state enforcement entities are typically tied to the dominant climate within an enforcement jurisdiction classified according to various climate zones. These climate zones are based upon a 30-year average of local surface observations and are developed by DOE and ASHRAE. Establishing the current variability and potential changes to future building climate zones is very important for increasing the energy efficiency of buildings and reducing energy costs and emissions in the future. Objectives: This paper demonstrates the usefulness of using NASA's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) atmospheric data assimilation to derive the DOE/ASHRAE building climate zone maps and then using MERRA to define the last 30 years of variability in climate zones for the Continental US. An atmospheric assimilation is a global atmospheric model optimized to satellite, atmospheric and surface in situ measurements. Using MERRA as a baseline, we then evaluate the latest Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) climate model Version 5 runs to assess potential variability in future climate zones under various assumptions. Methods: We derive DOE/ASHRAE building climate zones using surface and temperature data products from MERRA. We assess these zones using the uncertainties derived by comparison to surface measurements. Using statistical tests, we evaluate variability of the climate zones in time and assess areas in the continental US for statistically significant trends by region. CMIP 5 produced a data base of over two dozen detailed climate model runs under various greenhouse gas forcing assumptions. We evaluate the variation in building climate zones for 3 different decades using an ensemble and quartile statistics to provide an assessment of potential building climate zone changes relative to the uncertainties demonstrated using MERRA. Findings and Conclusions: These results show that there is a statistically significant increase in the area covered by warmer climate zones and a tendency for a reduction of area in colder climate zones in some limited regions. The CMIP analysis shows that models vary from relatively little building climate zone change for the least sensitive and conservation assumptions to a warming of at most 3 zones for certain areas, particularly the north central US by the end of the 21st century.

Stackhouse, Paul W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Role of Updraft Velocity in Temporal Variability of Global Cloud Hydrometeor Number

Understanding how dynamical and aerosol inputs affect the temporal variability of hydrometeor formation in climate models will help to explain sources of model diversity in cloud forcing, to provide robust comparisons with data, and, ultimately, to reduce the uncertainty in estimates of the aerosol indirect effect. This variability attribution can be done at various spatial and temporal resolutions with metrics derived from online adjoint sensitivities of droplet and crystal number to relevant inputs. Such metrics are defined and calculated from simulations using the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmosphere Model Version 5.1 (CAM5.1). Input updraft velocity fluctuations can explain as much as 48% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number and 61% in droplet number in GEOS-5 and up to 89% of temporal variability in output ice crystal number in CAM5.1. In both models, this vertical velocity attribution depends strongly on altitude. Despite its importance for hydrometeor formation, simulated vertical velocity distributions are rarely evaluated against observations due to the sparsity of relevant data. Coordinated effort by the atmospheric community to develop more consistent, observationally based updraft treatments will help to close this knowledge gap.

cloud condensation nuclei↗
NASA NTRS2016

The Soft State of Cygnus X-1 Observed with NuSTAR: A Variable Corona and a Stable Inner Disk

We present a multi-epoch hard X-ray analysis of Cygnus X-1 in its soft state based on four observations with the Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR). Despite the basic similarity of the observed spectra, there is clear spectral variability between epochs. To investigate this variability, we construct a model incorporating both the standard disk-corona continuum and relativistic reflection from the accretion disk, based on prior work on Cygnus X-1, and apply this model to each epoch independently. We find excellent consistency for the black hole spin and the iron abundance of the accretion disk, which are expected to remain constant on observational timescales. In particular, we confirm that Cygnus X-1 hosts a rapidly rotating black hole, 0.93 < approx. a* < approx. 0.96, in broad agreement with the majority of prior studies of the relativistic disk reflection and constraints on the spin obtained through studies of the thermal accretion disk continuum. Our work also confirms the apparent misalignment between the inner disk and the orbital plane of the binary system reported previously, finding the magnitude of this warp to be approx.10deg-15deg. This level of misalignment does not significantly change (and may even improve) the agreement between our reflection results and the thermal continuum results regarding the black hole spin. The spectral variability observed by NuSTAR is dominated by the primary continuum, implying variability in the temperature of the scattering electron plasma. Finally, we consistently observe absorption from ionized iron at approx. 6.7 keV, which varies in strength as a function of orbital phase in a manner consistent with the absorbing material being an ionized phase of the focused stellar wind from the supergiant companion star.

black hole physics↗
NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Circulation and Climate Variability

The causes of regional climate trends cannot be understood without considering the impact of variations in large-scale atmospheric circulation and an assessment of the role of internally generated climate variability. There are contributions to regional climate trends from changes in large-scale latitudinal circulation, which is generally organized into three cells in each hemisphere-Hadley cell, Ferrell cell and Polar cell-and which determines the location of subtropical dry zones and midlatitude jet streams. These circulation cells are expected to shift poleward during warmer periods, which could result in poleward shifts in precipitation patterns, affecting natural ecosystems, agriculture, and water resources. In addition, regional climate can be strongly affected by non-local responses to recurring patterns (or modes) of variability of the atmospheric circulation or the coupled atmosphere-ocean system. These modes of variability represent preferred spatial patterns and their temporal variation. They account for gross features in variance and for teleconnections which describe climate links between geographically separated regions. Modes of variability are often described as a product of a spatial climate pattern and an associated climate index time series that are identified based on statistical methods like Principal Component Analysis (PC analysis), which is also called Empirical Orthogonal Function Analysis (EOF analysis), and cluster analysis.

Perlwitz, J.↗
NASA NTRS2018

VLTI-GRAVITY Measurements of Cool Evolved Stars I. Variable Photosphere and Extended Atmosphere of the Mira Star R Peg

Context. Dynamic model atmospheres of Mira stars predict variabilities in the photospheric radius and in atmospheric molecular layers which are not yet strongly constrained by observations. Aim. Here we measure the variability of the oxygen-rich Mira star R Peg in near-continuum and molecular bands. Methods. We used near-infrared K-band spectro-interferometry with a spectral resolution of about 4000 obtained at four epochs between post-maximum and minimum visual phases employing the newly available GRAVITY beam combiner at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI). Results. Our observations show a continuum radius that is anti-correlated with the visual lightcurve. Uniform disc (UD) angular diameters at a near-continuum wavelength of 2.24 m are steadily increasing with values of 8.7 0.1 mas, 9.4 0.1 mas, 9.8 0.1 mas, and 9.9 0.1 mas at visual phases of 0.15, 0.36, 0.45, 0.53, respectively. UD diameters at a bandpass around 2.05 m, dominated by water vapour, follow the near-continuum variability at larger UD diameters between 10.7 mas and 11.7 mas. UD diameters at the CO 2-0 bandhead, instead, are correlated with the visual lightcurve and anti-correlated with the near-continuum UD diameters, with values between 12.3 mas and 11.7 mas. Conclusions. The observed anti-correlation between continuum radius and visual lightcurve is consistent with an earlier study of the oxygen-rich Mira S Lac, and with recent 1D CODEX dynamic model atmosphere predictions. The amplitude of the variation is comparable to the earlier observations of S Lac, and smaller than predicted by CODEX models. The wavelength-dependent visibility variations at our epochs can be reproduced by a set of CODEX models at model phases between 0.3 and 0.6. The anti-correlation of water vapour and CO contributions at our epochs suggests that these molecules undergo different processes in the extended atmosphere along the stellar cycle. The newly available GRAVITY instrument is suited to conducting longer time series observations, which are needed to provide strong constraints on the model-predicted intra- and inter-cycle variability.

photospheric radius↗