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Meeting the Grand Challenge of Protecting Astronauts Health: Electrostatic Active Space Radiation Shielding for Deep Space Missions

This report describes the research completed during 2011 for the NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) project. The research is motivated by the desire to safely send humans in deep space missions and to keep radiation exposures within permitted limits. To this end current material shielding, developed for low earth orbit missions, is not a viable option due to payload and cost penalties. The active radiation shielding is the path forward for such missions. To achieve active space radiation shielding innovative large lightweight gossamer space structures are used. The goal is to deflect enough positive ions without attracting negatively charged plasma and to investigate if a charged Gossamer structure can perform charge deflections without significant structural instabilities occurring. In this study different innovative configurations are explored to design an optimum active shielding. In addition, to establish technological feasibility experiments are performed with up to 10kV of membrane charging, and an electron flux source with up to 5keV of energy and 5mA of current. While these charge flux energy levels are much less than those encountered in space, the fundamental coupled interaction of charged Gossamer structures with the ambient charge flux can be experimentally investigated. Of interest are, will the EIMS remain inflated during the charge deflections, and are there visible charge flux interactions. Aluminum coated Mylar membrane prototype structures are created to test their inflation capability using electrostatic charging. To simulate the charge flux, a 5keV electron emitter is utilized. The remaining charge flux at the end of the test chamber is measured with a Faraday cup mounted on a movable boom. A range of experiments with this electron emitter and detector were performed within a 30x60cm vacuum chamber with vacuum environment capability of 10-7 Torr. Experiments are performed with the charge flux aimed at the electrostatically inflated membrane structure (EIMS) in both charged and uncharged configurations. The amount of charge shielding behind and around the EIMS was studied for different combinations of membrane structure voltages and electron energies. Both passive and active shielding were observed, with active shielding capable of deflecting nearly all incoming electrons. The pattern of charge distribution around the structure was studied as well as the stability of the structures in the charge flow. The charge deflection experiments illustrate that the EIMS remain inflated during charge deflection, but will experience small amplitude oscillations. Investigations were performed to determine a potential cause of the vibrations. It is postulated these vibrations are due to the charge flux causing local membrane charge distribution changes. As the membrane structure inflation pressure is changed, the shape responds, and causes the observed sustained vibration. Having identified this phenomenon is important when considering electrostatically inflated membrane structures (EIMS) in a space environment. Additionally, this project included a study of membrane material impacts, specifically the impact of membrane thickness. Extremely thin materials presented new challenges with vacuum preparation techniques and rapid charging. The thinner and lighter membrane materials were successfully inflated using electrostatic forces in a vacuum chamber. However, care must be taken when varying the potentials of such lighter structures as the currents can cause local heating and melting of the very thin membranes. Lastly, a preliminary analysis is performed to study rough order of magnitude power requirements for using EIMS for radiation shielding. The EIMS power requirement becomes increasingly more challenging as the spacecraft voltage is increased. As a result, the emphasis is on the deflection of charges away from the spacecraft rather than totally stopping them. This significantly alleviates the initial power requirements. With modest technological development(s) active shielding is emerging to be a viable option.

Radiation↗

Brain Activations for Vestibular Stimulation and Dual Tasking Change with Spaceflight

Previous studies have documented the effects of spaceflight on human physiology and behavior, including muscle mass, cardiovascular function, gait, balance, manual motor control, and cognitive performance. An understanding of spaceflight-related changes provides important information about human adaptive plasticity and facilitates future space travel. In the current study, we evaluated how brain activations associated with vestibular stimulation and dual tasking change as a function of spaceflight. Five crewmembers were included in this study. The durations of their spaceflight missions ranged from 3 months to 7 months. All of them completed at least two preflight assessments and at least one postflight assessment. The preflight sessions occurred, on average, about 198 days and 51 days before launch; the first postflight sessions were scheduled 5 days after return. Functional MRI was acquired during vestibular stimulation and dual tasking, at each session. Vestibular stimulation was administered via skull taps delivered by a pneumatic tactile pulse system placed over the lateral cheekbones. The magnitude of brain activations for vestibular stimulation increased with spaceflight relative to the preflight levels, in frontal areas and the precuneus. In addition, longer flight duration was associated with greater preflight-to-postflight increases in vestibular activation in frontal regions. Functional MRI for finger tapping was acquired during both single-task (finger tapping only) and dual-task (simultaneously performing finger tapping and a secondary counting task) conditions. Preflight-to-post-spaceflight decreases in brain activations for dual tasking were observed in the right postcentral cortex. An association between flight duration and amplitude of flight-related change in activations for dual tasking was observed in the parietal cortex. The spaceflight-related increase in vestibular brain activations suggests that after a long-term spaceflight, more neural resources are required to process vestibular input.

Yuan, Peng↗

On the Ability of Space- Based Passive and Active Remote Sensing Observations of CO2 to Detect Flux Perturbations to the Carbon Cycle

Space-borne observations of CO2 are vital to gaining understanding of the carbon cycle in regions of the world that are difficult to measure directly, such as the tropical terrestrial biosphere, the high northern and southern latitudes, and in developing nations such as China. Measurements from passive instruments such as GOSAT (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite) and OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2), however, are constrained by solar zenith angle limitations as well as sensitivity to the presence of clouds and aerosols. Active measurements such as those in development for the Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days and Seasons (ASCENDS) mission show strong potential for making measurements in the high-latitude winter and in cloudy regions. In this work we examine the enhanced flux constraint provided by the improved coverage from an active measurement such as ASCENDS. The simulation studies presented here show that with sufficient precision, ASCENDS will detect permafrost thaw and fossil fuel emissions shifts at annual and seasonal time scales, even in the presence of transport errors, representativeness errors, and biogenic flux errors. While OCO-2 can detect some of these perturbations at the annual scale, the seasonal sampling provided by ASCENDS provides the stronger constraint. Plain Language Summary: Active and passive remote sensors show the potential to provide unprecedented information on the carbon cycle. With the all-season sampling, active remote sensors are more capable of constraining high-latitude emissions. The reduced sensitivity to cloud and aerosol also makes active sensors more capable of providing information in cloudy and polluted scenes with sufficient accuracy. These experiments account for errors that are fundamental to the top-down approach for constraining emissions, and even including these sources of error, we show that satellite remote sensors are critical for understanding the carbon cycle.

tropical terrestrial biosphere↗

The Challenge Posed by Geomagnetic Activity to Electric Power Reliability: Evidence from England and Wales

This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged the reliability of the electric power system during part of the declining phase of solar cycle 23. Operations by National Grid in England and Wales are examined over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 March 2005. This paper examines the relationship between measures of geomagnetic activity and a metric of challenged electric power reliability known as the net imbalance volume (NIV). Measured in megawatt hours, NIV represents the sum of all energy deployments initiated by the system operator to balance the electric power system. The relationship between geomagnetic activity and NIV is assessed using a multivariate econometric model. The model was estimated using half-hour settlement data over the period of 11 March 2003 through 31 December 2004. The results indicate that geomagnetic activity had a demonstrable effect on NIV over the sample period. Based on the parameter estimates, out-of-sample predictions of NIV were generated for each half hour over the period of 1 January to 31 March 2005. Consistent with the existence of a causal relationship between geomagnetic activity and the electricity market imbalance, the root-mean-square error of the out-of-sample predictions of NIV is smaller; that is, the predictions are more accurate, when the statistically significant estimated effects of geomagnetic activity are included as drivers in the predictions.

Forbes, Kevin F.↗

Discovery of Activities via Statistical Clustering of Fixation Patterns

Human behavior often consists of a series of distinct activities, each characterized by a unique pattern of interaction with the visual environment. This is true even in a restricted domain, such as a pilot flying an airplane; in this case, activities with distinct visual signatures might be things like communicating, navigating, monitoring, etc. We propose a novel analysis method for gaze-tracking data, to perform blind discovery of these hypothetical activities. We compare, not individual fixations, but groups of fixations aggregated over a fixed time interval (Tau). We assume that the environment has been divided into a finite set of discrete areas-of-interest (AOIs). For a given time interval, we compute the proportion of time spent fixating each AOI, resulting in an N-dimensional vector, where N is the number of AOIs. These proportions can be converted to integer counts by multiplying by Tau divided by the average fixation duration, a parameter that we fix at 283 milliseconds. We compare different intervals by computing the chi-squared statistic. The p-value associated with the statistic is the likelihood of observing the data under the hypothesis that the data in the two intervals were generated by a single process with a single set of probabilities governing the fixation of each AOI. We cluster the intervals, first by merging adjacent intervals that are sufficiently similar, optionally shifting the boundary between non-merged intervals to maximize the difference. Then we compare and cluster non-adjacent intervals. The method is evaluated using synthetic data generated by a hand-crafted set of activities. While the method generally finds more activities than put into the simulation, we have obtained agreement as high as 80 percent between the inferred activity labels and ground truth.

Eye Movements↗

Predicting Crew Time Allocations for Lunar Orbital Missions Based on Historical ISS Operational Activities

As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration continues to define candidate architectures for the planned lunar “Gateway”, it will be necessary to have a detailed understanding of how the crew will inhabit, operate, and maintain the spacecraft. The nature of the Gateway vehicle systems configuration and operations will have a direct impact on the scope of work activities required of the crew. Crew work schedules are sensitive to variations in spacecraft architecture, visiting vehicle activities, and logistics operations – particularly within short duration missions as initially planned for the lunar Gateway. These system and operational configurations must be taken into account when planning for crew time availability to conduct science activities on Gateway missions. This paper presents a methodology that is used to predict crew time distributions for lunar Gateway missions, as applied in NASA’s Exploration Crew Time Model (ECTM). The process utilized for evaluating crew time distributions is based on the categorization of all crew activities into a standardized ontology. Historical ISS daily crew timeline data from July 20, 2011 (post STS retirement) to present day was captured via the Operational Planning Timeline Integration System (OPTimIS) database and characterized according to the standardized ontology. This process enabled correlation and statistical analysis of the ISS data according to common mission parameters such as crew size, ECLSS system design, vehicle traffic operations, and logistics delivery operations. The results of the statistical analysis are a set of crew time distributions for each activity category. These distributions are then utilized within the ECTM to examine crew time allocations based on mission parameter inputs, which serve to characterize the Gateway mission configurations. Results for predicted crew time allocations for representative short duration Gateway missions are presented. These results can be used to evaluate crew schedule availability for science and utilization activities. Variations in expected mission architectures and mission operations are accounted for to correct crew time predictions. The analysis is being leveraged to plan utilization capability objectives that are achievable on the Gateway missions, as well as inform the viability of various mission architecture options.

Stromgren, Chel↗

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

Dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extends from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to the global-Sun magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across the different layers, which contribute to the corona heating and eruptive dynamics, as well as interlinks between different layers of the solar interior and atmosphere. For modeling the global-scale activity we use the data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitation on the prediction accuracy. We present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle 25 based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields, and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting the solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

Proceedings of the NASA Technical Interchange Meeting on Active Optical Systems for Supporting Science, Exploration, and Aeronautics Measurements Needs

Active optical (Laser/Lidar) measurement techniques are critical for the future National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth, Planetary Science, Exploration, and Aeronautics measurements. The latest science decadal surveys recommend a number of missions requiring active optical systems to meet the science measurement objectives and the aeronautics community continues to use Laser/Lidar technologies to meet the aeronautics measurement objectives. With these drivers, the NASA Agency Program Management Council (APMC), chaired by the NASA Associate Administrator, has tasked the NASA Sensors and Instrumentation (S&I) Capability Leadership Team (CLT) Leader to determine if the Agency has the necessary expertise and capabilities to execute successfully the active optical-based systems necessary to make the required measurements for Science, Exploration, and Aeronautics. This NASA Technical Interchange Meeting (TIM) was a forum to exchange perspectives on the current state of the discipline’s technologies and the direction NASA needs to take in the future to raise the Technical Readiness Level (TRL) of the measurement technologies to meet these measurement needs in the applications domains. The information developed at this TIM was used in formulating the Agency-level strategy and solutions for advancing high-risk Laser/Lidar technologies that are not currently being sufficiently planned, developed, or risk-reduced to meet NASA’s mission requirements. Given the crosscutting synergies in critical Active Optical measurements for NASA Science, Exploration, and Aeronautics, a strategic approach is needed to identify areas where NASA should “lead, leverage or collaborate” with existing national and international industries to meet its future needs. The TIM aimed at focusing NASA’s directions to attain the necessary TRLs to meet the Agency-level priority Active Optical measurements in Space and Aeronautics. The TIM presentations and strategic inputs were synthesized by the NASA Active Optical Tiger Team for presentation to the NASA APMC with a suggested strategy to address the Agency’s needs in a crosscutting, synergistic and cost-effective manner.

Singh, Upendra N↗

Solar Activity Modeling: From Subgranular Dynamical Scales to the Solar Cycles

The dynamical effects of solar magnetoconvection span a wide range spatial and temporal scales that extend from the interior to the corona and from fast turbulent motions to global magnetic activity. To study the solar activity on short temporal scales (from minutes to hours), we use 3D radiative MHD simulations that allow us to investigate complex turbulent interactions that drive various phenomena, such as plasma eruptions, spontaneous formation of magnetic structures, funnel-like structures and magnetic loops in the corona, and others. In particular, we focus on multi-scale processes of energy exchange across layers of the solar interior and atmosphere, which contribute to coronal heating and eruptive dynamics. For modeling global-scale activity, we use a data assimilation approach that has demonstrated great potential for building reliable long-term forecasts of solar activity. In particular, it has been shown that the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) method applied to the Parker-Kleeorin-Ruzmakin dynamo model is capable of predicting solar activity up to one sunspot cycle ahead in time, as well as estimating the properties of the next cycle a few years before it begins. In this presentation, using the available magnetogram data, we discuss development of the methodology and forecast quality criteria (including forecast uncertainties and sources of errors). We demonstrate the influence of observational limitations on prediction accuracy, and we present the EnKF predictions of the upcoming Solar Cycle (25) based on both the sunspot number series and observed magnetic fields and discuss the uncertainties and potential of the data assimilation approach for modeling and forecasting solar activity.

Kitiashvili, I. N.↗

COVID-19 Lockdowns Drive Decline in Active Fires in Southeastern United States

Fire is a common ecosystem process in forests and grasslands worldwide. Increasingly, ignitions are controlled by human activities either through suppression of wildfires or intentional ignition of prescribed fires. The Southeastern United States leads the nation in prescribed fire, burning ca. 80% of the countries extent annually. The COVID-19 pandemic radically changed human behavior as workplaces implemented social-distancing guidelines and provided an opportunity to evaluate relationships between humans and fire as fire management plans were postponed or cancelled. Using active fire data from satellite-based observations, we found that in the Southeastern United States, COVID-19 led to a 21% reduction in fire activity compared to the 2003-2019 average. The reduction was more pronounced for federally managed lands, up to 41% below average compared to the past 20-years (38% below average compared to the past decade). Declines in fire activity were partly affected by an unusually wet February before the COVID-19 shutdown began in mid-March 2020. Despite the wet spring, the predicted number of active fire detections was still lower than expected, confirming a COVID-19 signal on ignitions. In addition, prescribed fire management statistics, reported by US federal agencies, confirmed the satellite observations, and showed that following the wet February and before the mid-March COVID-19 shutdown, cumulative burned area was approaching record highs across the region. With fire return intervals in the Southeastern United States as frequent as 1-2 years, COVID-19 fire impacts will contribute to an increasing backlog in necessary fire management activities, affecting biodiversity and future fire danger.

Biological Sciences↗

Reference Surface Activities for Crewed Mars Mission Systems and Utilization

This paper describes the current reference being used by NASA for the surface exploration portion of a human Mars mission architecture, documented in HEOMD-415. (It is important to note that no decisions have been made by NASA regarding human Mars mission objectives, durations, or architectures, and this document is intended to aid in analysis of options.) The HEOMD-415 report details constraints and considerations in planning daily activity timelines for crewed exploration on Mars. This work was done for the purpose of estimating how much time during each martian sol might be available for exploration activities, (also referred to as utilization activities in this document), after accounting for time needed for crew and equipment care. The report describes activities, on a sol-by-sol basis, for a surface exploration mission with a total duration of 30 sols on the surface. At the conclusion of this description, the total amount of time used in the activities is presented, summarized into relevant mission planning categories. In addition, the amount of time used specifically for extravehicular activities (EVAs) is gathered in a tabular form, showing the amount of time by sol and by crewmember that resulted from this analysis. As future analyses related to this surface mission are conducted, these summary results will be updated and revisions of the document will be released.

Mars↗

Models for Facilitating Government-Funded Activities in the Post-ISS LEO Ecosystem

The International Space Station National Lab (ISSNL) was established through Congressional authority in 2005 and has been managed by a nonprofit called the Center for the Advancement of Science in Space (CASIS) since 2011 to support research, development, education, and commercial activities in low-Earth orbit (LEO). NASA leadership is considering next steps for microgravity and orbital activities in LEO in preparation for the retirement of the International Space Station (ISS) and transition to Commercial LEO Destinations (CLDs) in the 2030 timeframe. Specifically, our study team within the NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy addressed the question: What are potential models for an ISS National Lab facilitating government-funded or subsidized activities on a commercial LEO platform after the transition of the ISS to one or more private platforms? To inform the trade space of potential models, we conducted over 40 discussions with stakeholders internal and external to NASA and reviewed over 35 documents related to LEO legislation, commercialization, models, and activities. Following the extensive literature review and discussions with diverse stakeholders, we defined and evaluated six models, in addition to the current ISSNL model. We assessed each model across three possible future scenarios (dynamic, steady, and limited growth of the commercial LEO market and activities) and across five stakeholder-driven model evaluation criteria (ability to meet NASA’s needs, adaptability, opportunity for collaboration, market sustainability, and equity and accessibility). The six models in the future trade space were: • Government Research Broker: Customizable research efforts on transport vehicles and CLDs • Innovation Campus: Modern terrestrial campus with workforce focus • Anchor Tenant: Long-term, substantial agreement for leasing space on a single CLD • Fee for Service: Free market approach with NASA-sponsored grants and service/data buys • Matchmaker: Neutral third-party connecting users to platforms • Institute Network: Network of separate but related efforts to enable commercial scaling The Government Research Broker model performed best across the scenarios, followed by Innovation Campus, Anchor Tenant, and Fee for Service. While Matchmaker and Institute Network exhibited positive aspects, the two models performed most favorably in future scenarios with well-established communities and markets. The six models presented in this study are representative of the potential trade space and are illustrative examples. NASA leadership can adjust models as desired to align to their priorities more closely by using combinations of the unique model features provided in our analysis. The optimal model is likely a combination of features from multiple models. Building upon this work to best position NASA and the diverse stakeholders of LEO activities for success post-ISS, further work will explore the near-term impact of preparing for the transition of the ISS to CLDs by identifying opportunities for modifying the current ISSNL-CASIS partnership. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank the many reviewers and discussants, internal and external to NASA, that contributed to the work.

Erica Rodgers↗

Control System Development for A Zero Boil-Off Hydrogen Storage Demonstration With Two-Stage Active Cooling

A NASA team is designing and building a test article to demonstrate the long duration storage of liquid hydrogen via active cooling (cryocoolers) while implementing a two-stage cooling approach. This activity is one of a large portfolio of NASA’s Space Technology Mission Directorate funded activities which focuses on the technology maturation needed for long duration storage of cryogenic liquid in-space. The current state-of-the-art for liquid hydrogen storage on-orbit is on the order of hours while NASA’s planned missions require storage for months, or even years. To enable such a long duration, Zero Boil-Off conditions must be achieved which requires passive technologies to minimize environmental heat loads, but also active cooling to intercept and reject the remaining heat to deep space. The implementation of active cooling results in a significant amount of dry mass added to the vehicle. Utilizing a Two-Stage Cooling approach, analysis and testing to date indicates the Zero Boil-Off of liquid hydrogen can be achieved with less mass and electrical power relative to a single-stage cooling approach where only one cryocooler is used. This activity will demonstrate the fully integrated suite of technologies needed to enable the Two-Stage Cooling approach which includes Multi-Layer Insulation blankets, Low Conductivity Structures, a Tube-On-Tank Heat Exchanger, Tube-On-Shield Heat Exchanger and a Two-Stage Cryogenerator (both 90 Kelvin and 20 Kelvin) with each stage having an independently controlled circulation loop. The bulk of the heat load is intercepted by the 90 Kelvin loop via a thin foil heat exchanger internal to the insulation blankets (also known as a Broad Area Cooling Shield), with the remainder removed at cryofluid temperature (20 Kelvin) by tubes directly welded to the outer tank surface. In this paper, we examine the challenges of controlling the system, and describe the development of control algorithms and software for future testing with liquid hydrogen. The interactions between the cryofans which control circulation loop mass flow rates, electrical heaters which vary the cryocooler lift to simulate the operation of variable-lift flight units, tank heaters which can vary the overall heat load, and the effects of changes in circulation loop pressure as temperatures change, can be complex and must be well understood to maintain steady-state propellant conditions and achieve Zero Boil-Off. Parallel PID loops and watchdog programs implemented on the user interface system will help bring the systems to steady state operation and keep them at selected operating points within acceptable error, while avoiding runaway feedback loops.

cryogenics↗

Mount Etna as A Terrestrial Laboratory to Investigate Recent Volcanic Activity on Venus By Future Missions: A Comparison With Idunn Mons, Venus

The recently selected missions to Venus have opened a new era for the exploration of this planet. These missions will provide information about the chemistry of the atmosphere, the geomorphology, local-to-regional surface composition, and the rheology of the interior. One key scientific question to be addressed by these future missions is whether Venus remains volcanically active, and if so, how its volcanism is currently evolving. Hence, it is fundamental to analyze appropriate terrestrial analog sites for the study of possibly active volcanism on Venus. To this regard, we propose Mount Etna - one of the most active and monitored volcanoes on Earth - as a suitable terrestrial laboratory for remote and in-situ investigations to be performed by future missions to Venus. Being characterized by both effusive and explosive volcanic products, Mount Etna offers the opportunity to analyze multiple eruptive styles, both monitoring active volcanism and identifying the possible occurrence of pyroclastic activity on Venus. We directly compare Mount Etna with Idunn Mons, one of the most promising potentially active volcanoes of Venus. Despite the two structures show a different topography, they also show some interesting points of comparison, and in particular: a) comparable morpho-structural setting, since both volcanoes interact with a rift zone, and b) morphologically similar volcanic fields around both Mount Etna and Idunn Mons. Given its ease of access, we also propose Mount Etna as an analog site for laboratory spectroscopic studies to identify the signatures of unaltered volcanic deposits on Venus.

P D DIncecco↗

The Activity Profiles and Peak Flux of Radar Meteor Showers

Meteor showers are transient phenomena; a limited duration is what distinguishes a shower from a sporadic source. They do not, however, have clear start and end times; instead, shower activity gradually (or rapidly) increases over time, reaches a peak, and then decays. In this report, we examine the activity profiles of 38 meteor showers using 20 years of single-station shower fluxes from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar (CMOR). We find that a number of showers, such as the Southern delta Aquariids (SDAs), exhibit a broad maximum in activity rather than a sharp peak. We also find that approximately one-third of showers exhibit asymmetric activity profiles in which the rate in which activity rises prior to the peak differs from the rate at which it decays after the peak. We provide a functional form for meteor shower activity profiles that incorporates these features and use these profile fits to estimate each shower’s peak flux. This report also includes an uncertainty analysis for CMOR fluxes. This includes the first (to our knowledge) characterization of systematic uncertainty in radar meteor fluxes.

A V Moorhead↗

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗

A multilayer network analysis of Alzheimer's disease pathogenesis: Roles for p‐tau, synaptic peptides, and physical activity

INTRODUCTION: In the aging brain, cognitive abilities emerge from the coordination of complex pathways arising from a balance between protective lifestyle and environmental factors and accumulation of neuropathologies. METHODS: As part of the Rush Memory and Aging Project (n = 440), we measured accelerometer-based actigraphy, cognitive performance, and after brain autopsy, selected reaction monitoring mass spectrometry. Multilevel network analysis was used to examine the relationships among the molecular machinery of vesicular neurotransmission, Alzheimer's disease (AD) neuropathology, cognition, and late-life physical activity. RESULTS: Synaptic peptides involved in neuronal secretory function were the most influential contributors to the multilayer network, reflecting the complex interdependencies among AD pathology, synaptic processes, and late-life cognition. Older adults with lower physical activity evidenced stronger adverse relationships among phosphorylated tau peptides, markers of synaptic integrity, and tangle pathology. DISCUSSION: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes and advance understanding of the role of physical activity in age-associated cognitive impairment. Highlights: Network-based approaches simultaneously model interdependent biological processes. Secretory synaptic peptides were influential contributors to the multilayer network. Older adults with lower physical activity had adverse relationships among pathology. There was interdependence among phosphorylated tau, synaptic integrity, and tangles. Network methods elucidate the role of physical activity in cognitive impairment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Material‐Driven Neuronal Oscillators and Filters via Active Reactance in CC‐NDR and VC‐NDR Electro‐Thermal Memristors

The continued scaling of artificial intelligence and telecommunications hardware is increasingly constrained by the power, bandwidth, and area limitations of transistor-based circuits. Neuromorphic processor units, analog oscillators, and active inductors and capacitors rely on complex multi-transistor architectures restricting material choices and incurring energy and footprint overhead. Here, we show that active reactance in electro-thermal memristors provides an intrinsic, material driven route to neuronal oscillator dynamics and signal processing. Using a physics-based compact modeling framework, we bridge negative differential resistance (NDR) and bias-tunable reactance, which underlies spiking dynamics in electro-thermal memristors. Memristors with negative temperature coefficients of resistance (TCR) manifest current-controlled (CC-) NDR and act as active inductors, thus generating spiking above a critical circuit capacitance; whereas memristors with positive TCR manifest voltage-controlled (VC-) NDR and active capacitance, leading to spiking above a critical inductance. By creating a compact model for La 0.7 Ca 0.3 MnO 3 as a representative VC-NDR material and comparing it with LaCoO 3 manifesting CC-NDR, we explain the physical origins of their distinct current-voltage characteristics, reactive phase shifts and consequent spiking behaviors. Finally, we demonstrate tunable filtering enabled by the active reactance of electro-thermal memristors, establishing them as a compact hardware platform for neuronal oscillator functionality and integrated filtering beyond conventional CMOS.

active reactance↗