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Behavioral and Population Data-Driven Distribution System Load Modeling

Distribution system residential load modeling and analysis for different geographic areas within a utility or an independent system operator territory are critical for enabling small-scale, aggregated distributed energy resources to participate in grid services under Federal Energy Regulatory Commission Order No. 2222 [1]. In this study, we develop a methodology of modeling residential load profiles in different geographic areas with a focus on human behavior impact. First, we construct a behavior-based load profile model leveraging state-of-the-art appliance models. We simulate human activity and occupancy using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods calibrated with the American Time Use Survey data set. Second, we link our model with cleaned Current Population Survey data from the U.S. Census Bureau. Finally, we populate two sets of 500 households using California and Texas census data, respectively, to perform an initial analysis of the load in different geographic areas with various group features (e.g., different income levels). To distinguish the effect of population behavior differences on aggregated load, we simulate load profiles for both sets assuming fixed physical household parameters and weather data. Analysis shows that average daily load profiles vary significantly by income and income dependency varies by locality.

American Time Use Survey↗

Comparison of Thin Film Heat Flux Gauge Technologies Emphasizing Continuous-Duration Operation

Abstract Thin-film heat flux gauges (HFGs) have been used for decades to measure surface temperatures and heat flux in test turbines with the majority being used in facilities that are short-duration. These gauges are typically composed of two resistive temperature devices deposited on opposing sides of a dielectric. However, because these sensors have been traditionally applied for measurements in transient-type facilities, the challenges facing adaptation of this technology for a steady facility warrant investigation. These challenges are highlighted, and the solutions are presented throughout the paper. This paper describes the nanofabrication process for heat flux gauges and a new calibration method to address the potential deterioration of gauges over long runtimes in continuous-duration facilities. Because the primary uncertainty of these sensors arises from the ambiguity of the thermal properties, the emphasis is placed on the property determination. Also, this paper presents a discussion on the use of impulse response theory to process the data showing the feasibility of the method for steady-duration facilities after an initial settling time. The latter portion of the paper focuses on comparing well-established heat flux gauges developed for short-duration turbine test facilities to recently developed gauges fabricated using modern nanofabrication techniques for a continuous turbine test facility. The gauges were compared using the test case of an impinging jet over a range of Reynolds numbers. The comparison between the PSU gauge and the reference device indicated agreement within 14%, and similar results were achieved through comparison with established sensors from partner institutions.

Engineering↗

Comparison of Thin Film Heat Flux Gauge Technologies Emphasizing Continuous-Duration Operation

Thin film heat flux gauges (HFGs) have been used for several decades to measure surface temperatures and heat flux in test turbines with the majority being used in facilities that are short-duration. These gauges are typically composed of two resistive temperature devices deposited on opposing sides of a dielectric. However, because these sensors have been traditionally applied for measurements in short-duration, transient-type facilities, the challenges facing adaptation of this technology for a continuous-duration steady facility warrant investigation. Those challenges are highlighted, and solutions are presented throughout the paper. This paper describes the nanofabrication process for heat flux gauges and a new calibration method to address potential deterioration of gauges over long runtimes in continuous-duration facilities. Because a primary uncertainty of these sensors arises from the ambiguity of the thermal properties, special emphasis is placed on the property determination and potential errors due to improper thermal properties. Also, this paper presents a discussion on the use of impulse response theory to process the data showing the feasibility of the method for steady-duration facilities after an initial settling time. The latter portion of the paper focuses on comparing well-established heat flux gauges developed for short-duration turbine test facilities to recently developed gauges fabricated using modern nanofabrication techniques for a continuous turbine test facility. Using a commercially available heat flux gauge, capable of measuring a steady heat flux as a reference, the gauges were compared using the test case of an impinging jet over a range of Reynolds numbers. The comparison between the PSU gauge and the reference device indicated agreement within 14%, and similar results were achieved through comparison with established sensors from partner institutions.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

SU-E-T-665: Radiochromic Film Quenching Effect Reduction for Proton Beam Dosimetry

Purpose: Depending on the useful dose range in which radiochromic films operate, number of different radiochromic film models have been designed. The impact of different film models on quenching effect for percent depth dose (PDD) measurements in proton beams has been investigated. Methods: Calibrated PTW Markus ionization chamber was used to measure PDD and beam output for 26.5 MeV protons produced by CS30 cyclotron. An aluminum cylinder was added in front of the beam exit serving as a radiation shutter. The measured signal was normalized to a monitor chamber reading and subsequently scaled by ratio of water-to-air stopping powers at given depth, while the effective depth of measurements was scaled by ratios of material-to-water physical densities and CSDA ranges. Output was measured in water at 2.1 mm reference-depth in the plateau upstream from the Bragg peak. Following the TRS-398 reference dosimetry protocol for proton beams, the output was calibrated in water. Three radiochromic film models (EBT, EBT3 and HD-V2) were calibrated within Lexan phantom positioned at the same water-equivalent depth. Thicknesses of films sensitive layers were 34 µm, 30 µm and 8 µm, respectively. Small film pieces (1 x 2 cm{sup 2}) were positioned within polyethylene phantom along the beam central axis with an angulation of 5° for PDD measurements. Results: While the output of the proton beam was found to be around 7 Gy/sec, the actual value of the output per monitor chamber reading (2.32 Gy/nC) was used for reference-dose irradiations during film calibration. Dose ratios at the Bragg peak relative to the reference-depth were 3.88, 2.52, 2.19, and 2.02 for the Markus chamber, HD-V2, EBT3, and EBT film models, respectively. Conclusion: Results at hand suggest that quenching effect is reduced when a radiochromic film model with smaller sensitive layer thickness is used for PDD measurements in proton beams. David Lewis is the owner of RCF Consulting, LLC.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Bone-marrow densitometry: Assessment of marrow space of human vertebrae by single energy high resolution-quantitative computed tomography

Purpose: Accurate noninvasive assessment of vertebral bone marrow fat fraction is important for diagnostic assessment of a variety of disorders and therapies known to affect marrow composition. Moreover, it provides a means to correct fat-induced bias of single energy quantitative computed tomography (QCT) based bone mineral density (BMD) measurements. The authors developed new segmentation and calibration methods to obtain quantitative surrogate measures of marrow-fat density in the axial skeleton. Methods: The authors developed and tested two high resolution-QCT (HR-QCT) based methods which permit segmentation of bone voids in between trabeculae hypothesizing that they are representative of bone marrow space. The methods permit calculation of marrow content in units of mineral equivalent marrow density (MeMD). The first method is based on global thresholding and peeling (GTP) to define a volume of interest away from the transition between trabecular bone and marrow. The second method, morphological filtering (MF), uses spherical elements of different radii (0.1–1.2 mm) and automatically places them in between trabeculae to identify regions with large trabecular interspace, the bone-void space. To determine their performance, data were compared ex vivo to high-resolution peripheral CT (HR-pQCT) images as the gold-standard. The performance of the methods was tested on a set of excised human vertebrae with intact bone marrow tissue representative of an elderly population with low BMD. Results: 86% (GTP) and 87% (MF) of the voxels identified as true marrow space on HR-pQCT images were correctly identified on HR-QCT images and thus these volumes of interest can be considered to be representative of true marrow space. Within this volume, MeMD was estimated with residual errors of 4.8 mg/cm{sup 3} corresponding to accuracy errors in fat fraction on the order of 5% both for GTP and MF methods. Conclusions: The GTP and MF methods on HR-QCT images permit noninvasive localization and densitometric assessment of marrow fat with residual accuracy errors sufficient to study disorders and therapies known to affect bone marrow composition. Additionally, the methods can be used to correct BMD for fat induced bias. Application and testing in vivo and in longitudinal studies are warranted to determine the clinical performance and value of these methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

SU-F-T-174: Patient-Specific Point Dose Measurement Using Fiber Optic Radiation Sensor Using Cerenkov Radiation for Proton Therapeutic Beam

Purpose: A fiber-optic radiation sensor using Cerenkov radiation (FOCR) has been widely studied for use as a dosimeter for proton therapeutic beam. We developed the FOCR, and it applied to patient-specific point dose measurement in order to evaluate the effectiveness of the FOCR system for proton therapy QA. Methods: Calibration of FOCR was performed with an ionization chamber whose absolute doses were determined according to the IAEA TRS-398 protocol. To determine the calibration curve, the FOCR was irradiated perpendicularly to the proton beam at the 13 dose levels steps. We selected five actual patient treatment plans performed at proton therapy center and compared the resulting FOCR measurements with the ionization chamber measurements. Results: The Cerenkov light yield of the FOCR increases linearly with as the dose measured using the ionization chamber increases from 0 cGy to 500 cGy. The results indicate that the fitting curve is linear, suggesting that dose measurement based on the light yield of the FOCR is possible. The results of proton radiation dose QA performed using the FOCR for 10 proton fields and five patients are good agreement with an ionization chamber. Conclusion: We carried out the patient QA using the FOCR for proton therapeutic beam and evaluated the effectiveness of the FOCR as a proton therapy QA tool. Our results indicate that the FOCR is suitable for use in patient QA of clinical proton beams.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Operation and performance of the ATLAS tile calorimeter in LHC Run 2

The ATLAS tile calorimeter (TileCal) is the hadronic sampling calorimeter covering the central region of the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This paper gives an overview of the calorimeter’s operation and performance during the years 2015–2018 (Run 2). In this period, ATLAS collected proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV and the TileCal was 99.65% efficient for data-taking. The signal reconstruction, the calibration procedures, and the detector operational status are presented. The performance of two ATLAS trigger systems making use of TileCal information, the minimum-bias trigger scintillators and the tile muon trigger, is discussed. Studies of radiation effects allow the degradation of the output signals at the end of the LHC and HL-LHC operations to be estimated. Finally, the TileCal response to isolated muons, hadrons and jets from proton–proton collisions is presented. The energy and time calibration methods performed excellently, resulting in good stability and uniformity of the calorimeter response during Run 2. The setting of the energy scale was performed with an uncertainty of 2%. The results demonstrate that the performance is in accordance with specifications defined in the Technical Design Report.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Application of IR imaging for free-surface velocity measurement in liquid-metal systems

Measuring free-surface, liquid-metal flow velocity is challenging to do in a reliable and accurate manner. This paper presents a non-invasive, easily-calibrated method of measuring the surface velocities of open-channel liquid-metal flows using an IR camera. Unlike other spatially-limited methods, this IR camera particle tracking technique provides full field-of-view data that can be used to better understand open-channel flows and determine surface boundary conditions. This method could be implemented and automated for a wide range of liquid-metal experiments, even if they operate at high-temperatures or within strong magnetic fields.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Application of IR imaging for free-surface velocity measurement in liquid-metal systems

Measuring free-surface, liquid-metal flow velocity is challenging to do in a reliable and accurate manner. This paper presents a non-invasive, easily-calibrated method of measuring the surface velocities of open-channel liquid-metal flows using an IR camera. Unlike other spatially-limited methods, this IR camera particle tracking technique provides full field-of-view data that can be used to better understand open-channel flows and determine surface boundary conditions. This method could be implemented and automated for a wide range of liquid-metal experiments, even if they operate at high-temperatures or within strong magnetic fields.

Free surface↗

Two-step retrace error calibration removing tilt ambiguity in coherence scanning interferometry

In interferometry measurement, the retrace error often limits its high-precision metrology applications. Retrace error calibration with tilted flats can give a relation between the retrace error and the introduced tilt angles, but there is still an ambiguity between the introduced tilt angles and the tilt terms in the created retrace error. Here, we propose a novel, to the best of our knowledge, two-step calibration method to resolve this tilt ambiguity. It involves additional measurements of spherical mirror(s) with known curvature(s). The experiment shows that the curvature deviation due to the tilt ambiguity can be significantly reduced after applying the proposed method.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Arctic Clouds Infrared Imaging Field Campaign Report

The Infrared Cloud Imager (ICI), a passive thermal imaging system, was deployed at the North Slope of Alaska site in Barrow, Alaska, from July 2012 to July 2014 for measuring spatial-temporal cloud statistics. Thermal imaging of the sky from the ground provides high radiometric contrast during night and polar winter when visible sensors and downward-viewing thermal sensors experience low contrast. In addition to demonstrating successful operation in the Arctic for an extended period and providing data for Arctic cloud studies, a primary objective of this deployment was to validate novel instrument calibration algorithms that will allow more compact ICI instruments to be deployed without the added expense, weight, size, and operational difficulty of a large-aperture onboard blackbody calibration source. This objective was successfully completed with a comparison of the two-year data set calibrated with and without the onboard blackbody. The two different calibration methods produced daily-average cloud amount data sets with correlation coefficient = 0.99, mean difference = 0.0029 (i.e., 0.29% cloudiness), and a difference standard deviation = 0.054. Finally, the ICI instrument generally detected more thin clouds than reported by other ARM cloud products available as of late 2015.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Special Analysis: Impact of Updated GSA Flow Model on E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility Groundwater Performance

In March 2018, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) notified Solid Waste Management (SWM) of new information that could potentially impact groundwater (GW) disposal limits and possibly require temporary protective measures (Crowley 2018). GW flow directions in the E-Area Low-Level Waste Facility (LLWF) Slit Trenches (STs), Engineered Trenches (ETs), and the Low Activity Waste Vault (LAWV) have notably changed in the new 2018 General Separations Area (GSA) flow model (Flach 2018a). The 2018 GSA flow model had been updated using 20 years of new hydrologic field data and model calibration methods that employed mathematical optimization software. It was later determined that the primary reason for the change in GW flow directions was due to the influence of low permeability caps that had been placed over the Old Burial Grounds and the Low Level Radioactive Waste Disposal Facility (LLRWDF). Updated flow directions in the model produce a higher degree of plume overlap for disposal units (DU’s) in the southeastern portion of E-Area than had been predicted in the 2008 E-Area LLWF Performance Assessment (PA). SWM and SRNL outlined the scope for this Special Analysis (SA) and proposed a set of interim measures (IM’s) to protect trench operations from exceeding Performance Objectives (PO’s) during the preparation of this SA, both of which were approved by the SWM Performance Assessment Review Committee (PARC) (Mooneyhan 2018).

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Grain Boundary Diffusion Characterized by KPFM

The nanometer scale characterization technique of Frequency Modulated Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy (FM-KPFM) will be used to assess a preliminary diffusion study on thin metal films that undergo accelerated aging. The KPFM technique provides a relatively easy, non-destructive methodology that does not require high-vacuum facilities to obtain nanometer spatial resolution of surface chemistry changes and will be exercised in an effort to explore its capacity to map surface potential contrast caused by Cu diffusion in a manner that allows for a qualitative assessment of diffusion rate kinetics. Supporting data will be obtained from traditional techniques: AES, XPS and UPS. An aging study was conducted on thin metal test specimens comprised of Ti or Cr/Cu/Au layer thicknesses of 50nm/500nm/500nm up to 4μm respectively. The accelerated aging process, was performed in air at aging temperatures of 60°C, 100°C, and 125°C for aging times of 8 hours, 24 hours, 96 hours (4 days), and 216 hours (9 days). A calibration method was developed using Au, Al and Ni standards to establish precision and repeatability of the KPFM technique. Average CPDs and standard deviations for each metal were found and summarized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Total Measurement Uncertainty in Neutron Coincidence Multiplicity Analysis

Neutron multiplicity counting is the most commonly used nondestructive assay technique for determining the plutonium mass within containers of scrap PuO 2 or mixed oxide (MOX). In multiplicity analysis, the 240 Pu eff mass, leakage multiplication, and alpha ratio (the ratio of [α, n]-to-spontaneous fission neutron production) are the three primary unknown sample properties. They must be determined simultaneously. To solve for these three unknowns in a multiplicity assay, three measured values are needed: the singles, doubles, and triples neutron count rates. While the analysis is limited to solving for three unknowns, there are many additional factors that impact the observed count rates and contribute to the measurement uncertainty. In this study we investigate the various uncertainty contributors for the multiplicity analysis through a combination of traditional uncertainty propagation techniques supplemented by Monte Carlo simulations to address the dependences not explicitly expressed by the point source model. Uncertainties arising from counting statistics, calibration parameters, calibration method, nuclear data, and various material characteristics (isotopic abundances, chemical form, density, and impurities) are considered. A Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) estimate is then developed from these uncertainty contributors. This study is confined to multiplicity analysis of items commonly encountered in international safeguards applications. That is, the study focused on Pu oxides and MOX materials for the masses ranging up to 4000 grams total Pu. Multiplicity measurements were simulated using MCNP V6 based on the Plutonium Scrap Multiplicity Counter (PSMC), Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (ENMC), Pyrochemical Multiplicity Counter, and Large Epithermal Multiplicity Counter (LEMC) for this study; however, this report focuses on the parameterization of the uncertainties for the PSMC. The performance differences between the PSMC and the other multiplicity counting systems are relatively small, primarily manifesting in the impact on measurement precision so that the evaluation developed for the PSMC can be applied to the other multiplicity counting systems. Finally an analysis tool, the Multiplicity TMU Estimator, was developed from this study to serve as an aid for evaluation of the total measurement uncertainty of multiplicity assay results obtained from the commonly used INCC acquisition and analysis software.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Cu/Al Through Au Diffusion Characterized by KPFM

The nanometer scale characterization technique of Frequency Modulated Kelvin Probe Force Microscopy (FM-KPFM) will be used to assess a diffusion study on thin metal films that undergo accelerated aging. The KPFM technique provides a relatively easy, non-destructive methodology that does not require high-vacuum facilities to obtain nanometer-scale spatial resolution of surface chemistry changes. The KPFM technique will be exercised in an effort to explore its capacity to map surface potential contrast caused by diffusion in a manner that allows for a qualitative assessment of diffusion of Cu or Al through Au. Supporting data will be obtained from traditional techniques: AES, XPS and UPS. An aging study was conducted on thin metal test specimens comprised of 500nm Cu or Al then 500nm Au on Si. The accelerated aging process was performed under inert conditions at aging temperatures of 100°C for Cu/Au film stack and 175°C for Al/Au film stack at aging times of 8 hours, 24 hours, 96 hours (4 days), and 216 hours (9 days).A calibration method was developed using Au, Al and Cu standards to establish precision and repeatability of the KPFM technique. The average Contact Potential Difference (CPD)s and standard deviations for each metal were found and summarized. Averages from surface roughness of the AFM topography images and roughness analysis of KPFM potential images which yield an average CPD of each area of unaged vs aged coupon surfaces were compared and show trends that indicate surface chemistry.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

New NBL Pu Isotopic Standards C137A and C136A as Working Reference Materials for Radiochronometry in Nuclear Forensics

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and the NBL Program Office (NBL PO) are collaborating on production of purified sub-units of the former NBS 936, 937 and 938 plutonium isotopic reference materials, which will be certified for plutonium isotopic composition and sold as certified reference materials (CRMs) C136A, C137A, and C138A, respectively. These reference materials are used throughout the United States and international community as standards for isotopic measurement method calibration and quality control and were first produced over 50 years ago. To reduce quantities of in-grown daughter products and potentially enable their use as Pu radiochronometry reference materials, the materials undergo a two-stage anion exchange purification to significantly reduce the quantities of U, Am, and Np in the source material. The purified Pu is aliquoted into ~1 mg units in the nitrate form, which will facilitate easier shipping and use compared to the 0.25 g parent units. The production process has been completed for the high- and medium- burnup isotopic standards C137A and C136A and will soon be performed for the weapons-grade Pu standard C138A. This report describes the measurement of trace actinide progeny of the Pu isotopes ( 234 U, 235 U, 236U, 241 Am and 237 Np) in purified C137A and 136A isotopic standards to provide informational values and assess the possibility of their use as working reference materials for radiochronometry.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Light Yield Calibration in MicroBooNE

The MicroBooNE detector is a Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) located along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) at Fermilab. Its primary physics goal is to contribute to addressing the elusive short-baseline MiniBooNE low energy excess. MicroBooNE records and utilises both the ionisation charge and scintillation light produced inside the TPC to select and reconstruct neutrino interactions. The scintillation light collected using a plane of PhotoMultiplier Tubes (PMTs) is also used for accurate event timing and cosmic muon rejection with the latter being an important background for detectors, such as MicroBooNE, located on the surface. A good understanding of light modeling and its related systematic uncertainties is crucial to evaluate their impact on physics analyses. The experience acquired from MicroBooNE regarding how the stability of the scintillation light behaves and evolves during the 5 years of the primary physics run will be discussed as well as the calibration method used. This experience will help with understanding the physics of scintillation light in LArTPCs for the future long-running Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) and Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) programs.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗