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Results for “Dynamic State Estimation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 451 records · Page 25
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature dependence of vacancy/self-interstitial recombination volumes in copper

We use molecular dynamics to calculate rate coefficients for recombination of vacancies with self-interstitial atoms (SIAs) in Cu at temperatures from 300 to 700 K. From these results, we calculate vacancy/SIA recombination volumes and find that they decrease from around 290 (where is one atomic volume) at 300 K to 160 at 500 K and above. By counting the number of distinct pathways by which a stable SIA may migrate to a site of spontaneous recombination with a nearby vacancy, we find a lower bound estimate of 168 for the recombination volume. We furthermore rationalize its temperature dependence based on differences between the activation energies for recombination and SIA migration. Furthermore, our work sheds light on the fundamental nature of the recombination volume and provides information that may be incorporated into multiscale models of radiation response in solids.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Structure and dynamics of open-shell nuclei from spherical coupled-cluster theory

We extend the spherical coupled-cluster ab initio method for open-shell nuclei where two nucleons are removed from a shell subclosure. Following the recent implementation of the two-particle-attached approach [Phys. Rev. C 110, 044306 (2024)], we focus on the two-particle-removed method. Using the equations-of-motion framework, we address both nuclear structure and dipole response functions by coupling coupled-cluster theory with the Lorentz integral transform technique. We perform calculations using chiral interactions, including three-nucleon forces, and estimate many-body uncertainties by comparing different coupled-cluster truncation schemes. Here, we validate our approach by studying ground-state energies, excited states, and electric dipole polarizabilities in the oxygen and calcium isotopic chains. For binding energies and selected low-lying excited states, we achieve an accuracy comparable to that of the established closed-shell coupled-cluster theory and generally agree with experiment. Finally, we underestimate experimental data for electric dipole polarizabilities, particularly in calcium isotopes.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

How Noninnocent Spectator Species Improve the Oxygen Reduction Activity of Single-Atom Catalysts: Microkinetic Models from First-Principles Calculations

Graphene-based single-atom catalysts are promising alternatives to platinum-based catalysts for fuel cell applications. Different transition metals have been screened using electronic structure methods by estimating onset potentials from the most endergonic elementary reaction step. Here, we calculate onset potentials for the oxygen reduction reaction on metal atoms embedded in N-substituted graphene di-vacancies by virtue of first-principles-informed microkinetic analysis. We find that for more oxophilic metals (Cr, Fe, Mn, and Ru), purely thermodynamic models systematically underestimate onset potentials. Furthermore, the oxophilic metals (Cr, Fe, Mn, and Ru) are oxidized under reaction conditions, leading to an increase in activity compared to their reduced state. Importantly, coadsorbed O m H n species actively participate in the reaction, which requires a dynamic treatment of spectator species. These findings highlight the limitations of thermodynamic analyses for electrocatalytic processes, which commonly assume the same oxidation state for each metal, and show that deviations between computational and experimental onset potentials cannot be solely attributed to the shortcomings of the electronic structure methods.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian calibration of a hybrid nuclear collision model using $\textit{p}$₋Pb and Pb-Pb data at energies available at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

Here, we posit a unified hydrodynamic and microscopic description of the quark-gluon plasma (QGP) produced in ultrarelativistic p₋Pb and Pb-Pb collisions at $\sqrt{s}_\text{NN}$ = 5.02 TeV and evaluate our assertion using Bayesian inference. Specifically, we model the dynamics of both collision systems using initial conditions with parametric nucleon substructure, a preequilibrium free streaming stage, event-by-event viscous hydrodynamics, and a microscopic hadronic afterburner. Free parameters of the model, which describe the initial state and QGP medium are then simultaneously calibrated to fit charged-particle yields, mean $p_T$, and flow cumulants. We argue that the global agreement of the calibrated model with the experimental data strongly supports the existence of hydrodynamic flow in small collision systems at ultrarelativistic energies, and that the flow produced develops at length scales smaller than a single proton. Posterior estimates for the model's input parameters are obtained, and new insights into the temperature dependence of the QGP transport coefficients and event-by-event structure of the proton are discussed.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bayesian Cloud Property Retrievals from ARM Active and Passive Measurements

The optimum use of the continuous measurements of thermodynamics, radiation, aerosols, clouds and precipitation from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program is key to achieve the DOE Atmospheric System Research (ASR)’s objectives. One of the key mission requirements is to retrieve cloud and precipitation properties, as well as vertical motion parameters, along the vertical cross- section defined by the profiling active sensors. Such retrievals are challenging to perform continuously in the entire spectrum of cloud and precipitation conditions due to the large natural microphysical and dynamical variability, the often-limited information content in the measurements, and the lack of proper characterization of measurement quality and uncertainty. Today, the acquisition of new remote and in-situ sensors by the ARM program creates opportunities to address the microphysical retrieval problem by exploiting new, more robust retrieval techniques and integrating various scattered advancements in both sensor techniques and retrieval algorithms. During this project, we constructed a robust Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) cloud property retrieval algorithm that includes a state of the art radar forward model. Our MCMC-based retrieval produces both the best estimate of height-resolved cloud and precipitation properties in the radar profile, as well as an estimate of the in-cloud vertical motion and turbulence. In addition, the MCMC algorithm automatically produces robust and flexible estimates of retrieval uncertainty. We tested the algorithm on several synthetic cloud profiles obtained from large eddy simulation (LES) models with bin-resolved microphysics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced measurement techniques in quantum Monte Carlo: The permutation matrix representation approach

In a typical finite temperature quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation, estimators for simple static observables such as specific heat and magnetization are known. With a great deal of system-specific manual labor, one can sometimes also derive more complicated non-local or even dynamic observable estimators. In contrast, we show that arbitrary static observables can be estimated within the permutation matrix representation (PMR) flavor for any Hamiltonian. We then generalize these results to general imaginary-time correlation functions and non-trivial integrated susceptibilities thereof. Finally, we demonstrate the practical versatility of our method by estimating various non-local, random observables for the transverse-field Ising model on a square lattice and a toy random model.

Permutation matrix representation↗
DOE OSTI2022

The dynamical state of RXCJ1230.7+3439: A multi-substructured merging galaxy cluster

We analyse the kinematical and dynamical state of the galaxy cluster RXCJ1230.7+3439 (RXCJ1230), at $z$ = 0.332 using 93 new spectroscopic redshifts of galaxies acquired at the Telescopio Nazionale Galileo and from SDSS DR16 public data. We study the density galaxy distribution retrieved from photometric SDSS multiband data and find that RXCJ1230 appears as a clearly isolated peak in the redshift space, with a global line-of-sight (LOS) velocity dispersion of $σ$ v = 1004 -122 +147 km s -1 . Several tests applied to the spatial and velocity distributions reveal that RXCJ1230 is a complex system with the presence of three subclusters, located to the southwest, east, and south with respect to the main body of the cluster, containing several bright galaxies (BGs) in their respective cores. Our analyses confirm that the three substructures are in a pre-merger phase, where the main interaction takes place with the southwest subclump, almost in the plane of the sky. We compute a velocity dispersion of $σ$ v ~ 1000 and $σ$ v ~ 800 km s -1 for the main cluster and the southwest substructure, respectively. The central main body and southwest substructure differ by ~870 km s -1 in the LOS velocity. From these data, we estimate a dynamical mass of $M$ 200 = 9.0 ± 1.5 × 1014 $M$ ⊙ and 4.4 ± 3.3 × 1014 $M$ ⊙ for the RXCJ1230 main body and southwest clump, respectively, which reveals that the cluster will undergo a merger characterised by a 2:1 mass ratio impact. We solve a two-body problem for this interaction and find that the most likely solution suggests that the merging axis lies ~17° from the plane of the sky and the subcluster will fully interact in ~0.3 Gyr. However, a slight excess in the X-ray temperature observed in the southwest clump confirms a certain degree of interaction already. The comparison between the dynamical masses and those derived from X-ray data reveals good agreement within errors (differences ~15%), which suggests that the innermost regions (< r 500 ) of the galaxy clumps are almost in hydrostatical equilibrium. In summary, RXCJ1230 is a young but also massive cluster in a pre-merging phase accreting other galaxy systems from its environment.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

A neural-network-enhanced parameter-varying framework for multi-objective model predictive control applied to buildings

Management of the electrical grid is becoming more complex due to the increased penetration of alternative energy generation technologies and a broadening diversity of electric loads. This complexity creates challenges in balancing demand and generation that can increase the potential for grid instabilities. One effective way to address this issue is to leverage previously unexploited demand flexibility through advanced control strategies. In this work, we propose an advanced control method, called adaptive neural parameter-varying model predictive control (ANPV-MPC), to control the temperature and energy consumption of a building via its Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning system. ANPV-MPC combines key ideas in parameter-varying control, adaptive control, and online learning strategies to bridge the gap between computationally efficient linear model predictive control and more accurate nonlinear model predictive control. The novelty in ANPV-MPC is the use of a physics-inspired Bayesian neural network to estimate the coefficients of the parameter-varying linear control model. The Bayesian neural network additionally provides uncertainty estimates, triggering online training to capture evolving building system conditions. We show that ANPV-MPC can approximate the building system dynamics with a 28.39% higher accuracy than traditional linear model predictive control, resulting in 36.23% better control performance without increasing complexity of the optimal control problem. ANPV-MPC also adapts in real time to previously unseen conditions using online learning, further improving its performance.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Integrated Modeling Framework for Sediment Dynamics During Urban Flooding: Application to Hurricane Harvey in Houston

Floodwater can mobilize and redistribute large volumes of sediment from upland to downstream urban areas, threatening infrastructure, water quality, and ecosystem health. However, existing modeling approaches often fail to capture sediment dynamics in urban floodplains due to the lack of integration between upland hydrological processes and riverine sediment transport. This study presents the first integrated modeling framework that couples the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land component, which simulates runoff and hillslope erosion, with TELEMAC-GAIA, a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and sediment transport model. This framework enables the fully distributed, process-based simulation of high-resolution (as fine as 30 m) sediment dynamics from hillslopes to floodplains. Applied to a highly urbanized watershed in Houston during Hurricane Harvey, this framework reproduced observed water levels at 16 USGS gauges (median R 2 = 0.83 and KGE = 0.78), key sediment dynamics such as sediment transport and deposition processes, and reproduced spatial deposition patterns consistent with LiDAR-derived data. Based on the simulation, we estimate 8.0 million m 3 of event-scale sediment deposition, including 5.7 million m 3 trapped in the flood-control reservoirs and 2.3 million m 3 deposited along major channels and floodplains. Using a representative unit removal cost, this corresponds to an estimated dredging cost of $581 million for total deposition. These results provide a first-order, physically based quantification of Harvey-scale sediment impacts. This study provides a valuable tool for the holistic analysis of sediment dynamics triggered by extreme urban flooding, supporting flood-resilience planning. More broadly, it highlights the importance of integrating physically based hydrological processes for urban flooding and sediment research.

Hurricane Harvey↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evidence for pressure induced unconventional quantum criticality in the coupled spin ladder antiferromagnet C 9 H 18 N 2 CuBr 4

Quantum phase transitions in quantum matter occur at zero temperature between distinct ground states by tuning a nonthermal control parameter. Often, they can be accurately described within the Landau theory of phase transitions, similarly to conventional thermal phase transitions. However, this picture can break down under certain circumstances. Here, we present a comprehensive study of the effect of hydrostatic pressure on the magnetic structure and spin dynamics of the spin-1/2 ladder compound C 9 H 18 N 2 CuBr 4 . Single-crystal heat capacity and neutron diffraction measurements reveal that the Néel-ordered phase breaks down beyond a critical pressure of Pc~1.0 GPa through a continuous quantum phase transition. Estimates of the critical exponents suggest that this transition may fall outside the traditional Landau paradigm. The inelastic neutron scattering spectra at 1.3 GPa are characterized by two well-separated gapped modes, including one continuum-like and another resolution-limited excitation in distinct scattering channels, which further indicates an exotic quantum-disordered phase above Pc.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Ab Initio Molecular Dynamics Study of Key Thermodynamic Input Parameters for Computer Simulation of U-6Nb Solidification

The key to metallic fuel development is the fabrication of uranium metal and alloys into fuel forms. U-Nb alloys are one of the best candidates for a metallic fuel alloy with high-temperature strength sufficient to support the core, acceptable nuclear properties, good fabricability, and compatibility with usable coolant media. Melt processing has been a key component of the metallic fuel cycle, and process models require thermophysical parameters at elevated temperatures, particularly above the melting temperatures, regarding which experimental data are scarce, for accurate simulations and process development. By means of ab initio density-functional theory (DFT) quantum molecular dynamics (QMD), we have calculated the main thermophysical parameters—the density, thermal expansion coefficient, specific heat, thermal conductivity, melting temperature, latent heat of fusion, and viscosity—used in the modeling of the U-6 wt.% Nb alloy casting. The melting temperature of the U-6 wt.% Nb alloy at ambient pressure is obtained by means of QMD simulations using the Z-method. The ambient volume change and latent heat of melting of U-6 wt.% Nb are also derived from QMD simulations in conjunction with analytical fitting for the energy and pressure. The thermal conductivity for the solid U-Nb alloy is calculated from the semi-classical Boltzmann transport equation combined with an estimate of the electron relaxation time obtained from DFT simulations.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Model-Free Measurement of Local Entropy Production and Extractable Work in Active Matter

Time-reversal symmetry breaking and entropy production are universal features of nonequilibrium phenomena. Despite its importance in the physics of active and living systems, the entropy production of systems with many degrees of freedom has remained of little practical significance because the high dimensionality of their state space makes it difficult to measure. Here, in this work, we introduce a local measure of entropy production and a numerical protocol to estimate it. We establish a connection between the entropy production and extractability of work in a given region of the system and show how this quantity depends crucially on the degrees of freedom being tracked. We validate our approach in theory, simulation, and experiments by considering systems of active Brownian particles undergoing motility-induced phase separation, as well as active Brownian particles and E.coli in a rectifying device in which the time-reversal asymmetry of the particle dynamics couples to spatial asymmetry to reveal its effects on a macroscopic scale.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Equation of state and strength of diamond in high-pressure ramp loading

Diamond is used extensively as a component in high-energy-density experiments, but existing equation of state (EOS) models do not capture its observed response to dynamic loading. In particular, in contrast with first-principles theoretical models of equilibrium multiphase EOS, no solid-solid phase changes have been detected, and no general-purpose EOS models match the measured ambient isotherm. We have performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations of the diamond phase to ~10 TPa, well beyond its predicted range of thermodynamic stability, and used these results as the basis of a Mie-Grüneisen EOS. We also performed DFT calculations of the elastic moduli, and calibrated an algebraic elasticity model for use in simulations. We then estimated the flow stress of diamond by comparison with the stress-density relation measured experimentally in ramp-loading experiments. Furthermore, the resulting constitutive model allows us to place a constraint on the Taylor-Quinney factor (the fraction of plastic work converted to heat) from the observation that diamond does not melt on ramp compression.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2020

Filtering adaptive output feedback control for multivariable nonlinear systems with mismatched uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics

This article synthesizes a filtering adaptive output feedback controller for multivariable nonlinear systems with mismatched uncertainties and unmodeled dynamics. The multivariable nonlinear systems under consideration have both matched and mismatched uncertainties, which satisfy the semiglobal Lipschitz condition. The unmodeled dynamics are bounded-input bounded-output stable. By adopting an estimation/cancellation strategy, a piecewise constant adaptive law drives the estimation error to zero at every time instant, which yields the adaptive parameters; a disturbance rejection control law is designed to compensate the nonlinear uncertainties within the bandwidth of low-pass filters. The matched uncertainties are cancelled directly by adopting their opposite in the control signal, while a dynamic inversion of the system is required to eliminate the effect of the mismatched uncertainties on the output. A feedforward control law is designed to track a given command. Since the virtual reference system defines the best performance that can be achieved by the closed-loop system, the uniform performance bounds are derived for the states and control signals via comparison. Both numerical and practical examples are provided to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed filtering adaptive output feedback control architecture, comparisons with the model reference adaptive control demonstrates the superiority of the proposed control method.

filtering adaptive control, mismatched uncertainit↗
DOE OSTI2026

Astrometric microlensing probes of the isolated neutron star population with Roman

Notoriously hard to detect and study, isolated neutron stars (NSs) might provide valuable answers to fundamental questions about stellar evolution and explosion physics. With the upcoming Roman Space Telescope, scheduled for launch in 2026, a new and powerful channel for their detection will become available: astrometric microlensing. We set out to create a realistic sample of simulated gravitational microlensing events as observed by Roman with the Galactic Bulge Time Domain Survey. We focus in particular on the population of NS lenses, which has until now been largely understudied. We used dedicated Galactic models tailored for application to microlensing by compact objects. In addition to populations of stars, white dwarfs, and black holes, we simulated four different NS populations with Maxwellian natal kick distributions: v = (150, 250, 350, 450) km/s. For each simulation, we applied projected Roman precision, cadence, and detectability criteria. We found that the parameter space log10 t E –log 10 θ E , which will be accessible to Roman observations, is efficient for the classification of stellar remnants. We found a feature in this space that is characteristic of NSs; using this feature, optimal samples of NS candidates can be constructed from Roman -like datasets. We describe the dependence of the observable parameter distributions on the assumed mean kick velocities. As the effects of natal kicks are very complex and mutually counteracting, we suggest that more detailed studies focused on the dynamics of NSs are needed in anticipation of Roman and future surveys. We estimate that Roman will observe approximately 11 000 microlensing events, including ~100 with NS lenses, whose photometric and astrometric signals are detectable; the event yield decreases by 38% when gap-filling low-cadence observations are not included. We make all simulated microlensing event datasets publicly available in preparation for Roman data.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Oblique and rippled heliosphere structures from the Interstellar Boundary Explorer

Abstract Past analysis has shown that the heliosphere structure can be deduced from correlations between long-scale solar wind pressure evolution and energetic neutral atom emissions. However, this required spatial and temporal averaging that smoothed out small or dynamic features of the heliosphere. In late 2014, the solar wind dynamic pressure increased by roughly 50% over a period of 6 months, causing a time and directional-dependent rise in around 2–6 keV energetic neutral atom fluxes from the heliosphere observed by the Interstellar Boundary Explorer. Here, we use the 2014 pressure enhancement to provide a simultaneous derivation of the three-dimensional heliospheric termination shock (HTS) and heliopause (HP) distances at high resolution from Interstellar Boundary Explorer measurements. The analysis reveals rippled HTS and HP surfaces that are oblique with respect to the local interstellar medium upwind direction, with significant asymmetries in the heliosphere structure compared to steady-state heliosphere models. We estimate that the heliosphere boundaries contain roughly ten astronomical unit-sized spatial variations, with slightly larger variations on the HTS surface than the HP and a large-scale, southwards-directed obliquity of the surfaces in the meridional plane. Comparisons of the derived HTS and HP distances with Voyager observations indicate substantial differences in the heliosphere boundaries in the northern versus southern hemispheres and their motion over time.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust Rapid Cellular Metabolite Sensing Using Benchtop NMR and SABRE-Hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]Pyruvate

Hyperpolarized NMR has emerged as a powerful analytical technique to significantly enhance targeted NMR signals, improving the sensitivity for investigations of unique chemical and biological dynamics. Here, we demonstrate the use of a hyperpolarization strategy based on Signal Amplification By Reversible Exchange (SABRE) to generate highly reproducible doses of a hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate probe for benchtop characterization of yeast metabolism. This method allows rapid, scalable, and benchtop preparation of biocompatible hyperpolarized solutions suitable for live-cell experiments. We show that this production can be dove-tailed into a modular, compact workflow to characterize real-time metabolism in cell cultures, using Saccharomyces cerevisiae (Baker’s yeast) as a model organism. With high temporal resolution, we show that this method can resolve the conversion of hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate into oxidative decarboxylation products CO 2 and bicarbonate. This conversion exhibits sustained and detectable metabolic activity for over 300 s after introduction of the agent to the cells. We model the metabolite kinetics to show decarboxylation activity and derive estimates of the pH over time from the CO 2 and bicarbonate (carbonic acid buffer system) equilibrium to probe changes in the cellular environment during active metabolism. These results highlight the utility of benchtop SABRE-hyperpolarized [1- 13 C]pyruvate as a scalable, specific probe for metabolic phenotyping of living cells using compact, low-cost instrumentation well-suited for future high-throughput applications across microbial engineering, drug response profiling, and dynamic metabolic screening.

fungi↗
DOE OSTI2026

APSO-enhanced algebraic derivative estimation approach for real-time traffic flow prediction on critical road sections during wildfire evacuation

In rapid-onset disaster scenarios such as wildfires, evacuation traffic often significantly deviates from historical patterns, rendering conventional data-driven forecasting methods less effective. To address this challenge, we propose an improved algebraic derivative estimation (ADE) incorporating particle swarm optimization (PSO) for real-time traffic flow prediction. Our approach dynamically adjusts the ADE prediction time window at each step by minimizing a cost function based on the mean and variance of accumulated forecasting errors within the window, thereby balancing bias and variability. We evaluate the method using traffic data from the January 2025 California wildfires, focusing on key road segments critical for large-scale evacuations. The results demonstrate that our approach surpasses established machine learning and deep learning models—XGBoost, LSTM, and GRU—in predictive accuracy and maintains high computational efficiency. Notably, the proposed method eliminates the need for offline model training. Moreover, rapid PSO-based tuning enables real-time deployment, which provides a crucial advantage in scenarios where evacuation timings and road closures change dynamically. In conclusion, these findings highlight the benefits of the PSO-enhanced ADE framework for emergency traffic management, where rapid, data-sparse forecasts are essential for effective evacuation planning.

Algebraic derivative estimation↗