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NASA NTRS1988

Astrophysical implications of periodicity

Two remarkable discoveries of the last decade have profound implications for astrophysics and for geophysics. These are the discovery by Alvarez et al., that certain mass extinctions are caused by the impact on the earth of a large asteroid or comet, and the discovery by Raup and Sepkoski that such extinctions are periodic, with a cycle time of 26 to 30 million years. The validity of both of these discoveries is assumed and the implications are examined. Most of the phenomena described depend not on periodicity, but just on the weaker assumption that the impacts on the earth take place primarily in showers. Proposed explanations for the periodicity include galactic oscillations, the Planet X model, and the possibility of Nemesis, a solar companion star. These hypotheses are critically examined. Results of the search for the solar companion are reported. The Deccan flood basalts of India have been proposed as the impact site for the Cretaceous impact, but this hypotheisis is in contradiction with the conclusion of Courtillot et al., that the magma flow began during a period of normal magnetic field. A possible resolution of this contradiction is proposed.

Muller, Richard A.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Simulating Reflected Light Coronagraphy of Earth-like Exoplanets with a Large IR/O/UV Space Telescope: Impact and Calibration of Smooth Exozodiacal Dust

Observing Earth-like exoplanets orbiting within the habitable zone of Sun-like stars and studying their atmospheres in reflected starlight requires contrasts of ∼1e–10 in the visible. At such high contrast, starlight reflected by exozodiacal dust is expected to be a significant source of contamination. Here, we present high-fidelity simulations of coronagraphic observations of a synthetic solar system located at a distance of 10 pc and observed with a 12 m and an 8 m circumscribed aperture diameter space telescope operating at 500 nm wavelength. We explore different techniques to subtract the exozodi and stellar speckles from the simulated images in the face-on, the 30 deg inclined, and the 60 deg inclined case and quantify the remaining systematic noise as a function of the exozodiacal dust level of the system. We find that in the face-on case, the exozodi can be subtracted down to the photon noise limit for exozodi levels up to ∼1000 zodi using a simple toy model for the exozodiacal disk, whereas in the 60 deg inclined case this only works up to ∼50 zodi. We also investigate the impact of larger wave front errors and larger system distance, finding that while the former has no significant impact, the latter has a strong (negative) impact. Ultimately, we derive a penalty factor as a function of the exozodi level and system inclination that should be considered in exoplanet yield studies as a realistic estimate for the excess systematic noise from the exozodi.

Exoplanet detection methods↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Unified Theory of Impact Crises and Mass Extinctions: Quantitative Tests

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting of large-body impacts on the Earth derive from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters, predict that impacts of objects greater than or equal to 5 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10 (exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of greater than or equal to 10 km in diameter (greater than or equal to 10(exp 8) Mt Events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10 (exp 6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record.

Rampino, Michael R.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Impact Crises, Mass Extinctions, and Galactic Dynamics: A Unified Theory

A general hypothesis linking mass extinctions of life with impacts of large asteroids and comets is based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth, derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing large-scale environmental disasters predict that impacts of objects (sup 3)5 km in diameter ((sup 3)10(exp 7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of about 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 m.y., with the five recorded major mass extinctions related to the impacts of the largest objects of (sup 3)10 km in diameter ( (sup 3)10(exp 8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (about 10(exp 6)-10(exp 7) Mt), with significant regional and even global environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities and several well-dated large impact craters suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of -100 km diameter, with smaller impacts capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters < about 60 km in diameter should not be associated with global extinction pulses detectable in the Sepkoski database (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses are associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high Ir, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less-well-studied crisis intervals show elevated Ir, still well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or the sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of about 30 m.y. in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement among paleontological, geological, and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Rampino, M.R.↗

NASA NTRS1994

New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History

Papers presented at the conference on New Developments Regarding the KT Event and Other Catastrophes in Earth History are included. Topics covered include: trajectories of ballistic impact ejecta on a rotating earth; axial focusing of impact energy in the earth's interior: proof-of-principle tests of a new hypothesis; in search of Nemesis; impact, extinctions, volcanism, glaciations, and tectonics: matches and mismatches.

Source record↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Ice sheet surface conditions and their subsequent impact on surface mass balance play an important role in ice sheet dynamics and ice sheet interaction with the overlying atmosphere and surrounding ocean. The NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office’s (GMAO) Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ecosystem of models and reanalyses model ice sheet and glacier surface mass balance with a moderately complex snow and ice module, including prognostic surface albedo evolution, fractional snow cover, and snowpack hydrology and meltwater retention. With this configuration, Greenland near surface air temperatures and ice sheet melt are well represented in MERRA-2, GMAO’s current atmospheric reanalysis; however, the similarity to observations in some regions is due, in part, to compensating biases in surface energy budget. Recent improvements to GEOS’ cloud microphysics and longwave radiation parameterizations reduced biases in surface net longwave radiation and exacerbated surface net shortwave radiation biases, effectively increasing near surface temperatures and melting, particularly during the summer months. Here, we demonstrate the Earth system response to an improved representation of the ice sheet surface focused on minimizing the surface energy biases and increasing spatial and temporal representativeness. New changes to the surface albedo parameterization, including the introduction of a prognostic aerosol darkening scheme, help mitigate shortwave biases, while modifications to surface roughness characteristics improve near surface sensible heat fluxes. Focusing on the Arctic and Greenland, we examine the combined impact on these changes on regional weather conditions and ice sheet surface mass balance using a high resolution atmospheric only experiment, and we use a coupled model configuration to assess the impact on oceanic conditions and subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction. Overall, these improvements increase modeled ice sheet surface realism and provide a strong basis for more accurate ice sheet mass balance in GMAO’s future reanalyses and forecasting systems.

Lauren C Andrews↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Regional Impacts of Ice Sheet Surface Representation Improvements in an Earth System Model

Lauren C. Andrews↗

NASA NTRS2024

Hawai’i Climate: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Assess Thermal Stress Impacts on Coastal Hawaiian Fishponds

Hawaiian fishponds (loko i’a), ancient aquaculture systems created over 1500 years ago, historically served to harvest prized native fish species. Colonization-induced changes in land management have reduced active loko i’a from over 500 to ~20, destabilizing nearshore ecosystems and diminishing native Hawaiian cultural traditions. In recent decades, efforts to restore loko i’a have intensified as part of a broader emphasis on preserving Hawaiian cultural identity. Anthropogenic-induced climate change threatens these systems, particularly through the increase in frequency and magnitude of marine heatwaves. Though largely unexplored, these events are effectively studied utilizing remote sensing via Earth observations. Leveraging this technique enables autonomous extraction of water quality parameters to inform fishpond management. This study examined seven loko i’a across the main Hawaiian Islands (Hawai’i Island, Moloka’i, Maui, O’ahu, Kaua’i). Sea surface temperature and normalized difference chlorophyll index measurements were derived in fishponds utilizing Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor Thermal Infrared Sensor and Sentinel-2 MultiSpectral Instrument between 2013 to 2023, while regional patterns in temperature and chlorophyll-a were observed via Aqua’s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (2002-2021). Employing these sensors, we focused analysis around the 2015 and 2019 marine heatwaves in the Pacific. We observed a heat stress gradient across the archipelago, creating thermally sheltered and unsheltered fishponds, yet identified no notable localized relationships between temperature and chlorophyll-a. Additionally, we applied pre-determined thermal maxima for culturally significant fish species (Striped Mullet: Mugil cephalus; Milkfish: Chanos Chanos) to assess historical habitat suitability within fishponds. While the direct impacts of marine heatwaves on loko i’a ecology are unknown, temperature patterns observed in this study are cause for concern.

Raz Wachtel↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Composition and Climate Impacts of Increasing Launches to Low Earth Orbit

We present simulations of an Earth system model in which launch vehicles inject gaseous and particulate combustion products into the stratosphere. We considered two plausible scenarios representative for the year 2050, one with 1000 launches per year and another with 10 times more, all of which assuming heavy lift (80 tons to low Earth orbit; LEO) launches using methane as a proxy for liquefied natural gas (LNG) fuel. An industry-standard plume flowfield model was used to predict emission of gaseous species including carbon monoxide, nitrogen oxides, and water vapor. Black carbon was introduced assuming vacuum emission equal 25% of equivalent kerosene engine. The gas emissions showed marginal or insignificant changes in atmospheric composition, while the black carbon emission was found to be the most influential component. Feedbacks involve tropopause and stratospheric warming, followed by a moistening of the stratosphere via tropospheric water vapor intrusions, together with a reduction in global albedo. The fact that LNG-fueled rockets could be a concern from aerosol emissions in our simulations, despite burning more efficiently than conventional fuels, underscores the need to better understand actual black carbon emissions from rocket engines in order to accurately predict the global impacts of launch vehicles on future climate.

Earth system model↗

NASA NTRS1997

Shoemaker-Levy 9 and Plume-Forming Collisions on Earth

Computational models for the July, 1994 collision of comet Shoemaker Levy 9 with Jupiter have provided a framework for interpreting the observational data. Imaging, photometry, and spectroscopy data from ground-based, Hubble Space Telescope, and Galileo spacecraft instruments are consistent with phenomena that were dominated by the generation of incandescent fireballs that were ballistically ejected to high altitudes, where they formed plumes that subsequently collapsed over large areas of Jupiter's atmosphere. Applications of similar computational models to collisions into Earth's atmosphere show that a very similar sequence of events should take place for NEO impacts with energies as low as 3 megatons, recurring on 100 year timescales or less. This result suggests that the 1908 Tunguska event was a plume-forming atmospheric explosion, and that some of the phenomena associated with it might be related to the ejection and collapse of a high plume. Hazards associated with plume growth and collapse should be included in the evaluation of the impact threat to Earth, and opportunities should be sought for observational validation of atmospheric impact models by exploiting data already being collected from the natural flux of multikiloton to megaton sized objects that constantly enter Earth's atmosphere on annual to decadal timescales.

Boslough, Mark B. E.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Formation of Cirrus Clouds near the Tropical Tropopause and Their Implications for Stratospheric Humidity, Radiation Budgets, and Climate

Optically-thin cirrus clouds are a nearly ubiquitous feature of the transition layer between the tropical troposphere and stratosphere (known as the Tropical Tropopause Layer). Given their high occurrence frequency, these clouds have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget, with a particularly strong influence on the outgoing longwave radiation. Further, ice crystal growth and sedimentation in these clouds dehydrates air in the cold TTL to very low water vapor mixing ratios. Since transport from the troposphere into the stratosphere occurs primarily through the tropical tropopause and the Brewer-Dobson circulation transports air from the TTL throughout the stratosphere, cloud processes in the TTL cold trap essentially regulate the humidity of the entire stratosphere. It has been shown that even small changes in stratospheric humidity can have significant impacts on the Earth's radiation budget and climate, with magnitudes comparable to anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases. The humidity of air crossing the TTL cold trap depends to first order on tropical tropopause temperatures, but also on deep convection reaching the TTL, large-scale transport (in balance with TTL radiative heating), atmospheric waves, and cloud microphysical processes. Gaps in our understanding of TTL transport and cloud processes motivated the NASA Airborne Tropical TRopopause EXperiment (ATTREX). ATTREX used the long-range (16,000 km), high-altitude (20 km) Global Hawk unmanned aircraft system equipped with twelve instruments measuring clouds, water vapor, meteorological conditions, chemical tracers, chemical radicals, and radiation. I will discuss the physics of TTL cirrus formation and the impact of these clouds on water vapor and radiation budgets, including new results emerging from the ATTREX measurements.

Jensen, Eric↗

NASA NTRS1976

User data dissemination concepts for earth resources: Executive summary

The impact of the future capabilities of earth-resources data sensors (both satellite and airborne) and their requirements on the data dissemination network were investigated and optimum ways of configuring this network were determined. The scope of this study was limited to the continental U.S.A. (including Alaska) and to the 1985-1995 time period. Some of the conclusions and recommendations reached were: (1) Data from satellites in sun-synchronous polar orbits (700-920 km) will generate most of the earth-resources data in the specified time period. (2) Data from aircraft and shuttle sorties cannot be readily integrated in a data-dissemination network unless already preprocessed in a digitized form to a standard geometric coordinate system. (3) Data transmission between readout stations and central preprocessing facilities, and between processing facilities and user facilities are most economically performed by domestic communication satellites. (4) The effect of the following factors should be studied: cloud cover, expanded coverage, pricing strategies, multidiscipline missions.

Davies, R.↗

NASA NTRS2024

Evidence for a ~1 Ga Hypervelocity Impact Event Found in Northwest Greenland

There are likely many undiscovered impact structures on Earth, but several challenges prevent their detection, including possible concealment beneath large ice sheets. In recent years, geophysical, geochemical, and microphysical evidence has mounted for a ca. 58 Ma impact structure under the Hiawatha Glacier, northwest Greenland. Here, we report evidence for a second, much older hypervelocity impact event in this region, recorded in an impact melt rock sample collected from a glaciofluvial deposit in Inglefield Land. Secondary ion mass spectrometry U-Pb analyses of shock metamorphosed zircon grains yielded a previously unrecorded, Proterozoic best estimate impact age of 1039 ± 16 Ma (mean square of weighted deviates = 2.9). Based on Archean−Proterozoic target rock U-Pb ages obtained from unshocked zircon grains and the location of the melt rock sample along the ice margin, we suggest this sample was derived from a hypervelocity impact structure farther inland, concealed by the Greenland Ice Sheet. This study demonstrates the ability to uncover new impact events in some of the most inaccessible areas on Earth and the possibility of sampling multiple impact structures from one location when examining ex situ material. Our results have implications for current and future Martian and lunar returned samples that demonstrably bear complex impact histories.

William R. Hyde↗

DOE OSTI2023

Noble gas insights into early impact delivery and volcanic outgassing to Earth's atmosphere: A limited role for the continental crust

Earth's atmosphere, crust and mantle have evolved together through continuous geochemical exchange throughout Earth's history. Constraints on the transport of volatile elements and compounds between these reservoirs are crucial for understanding how Earth could have stayed habitable for extended periods of time. In this work, we present a new forward model of He, Ne and Ar in the mantle, crust and atmosphere. We explore concentrations of noble gases at the end of accretion, bulk silicate Earth K/U ratios, crustal growth scenarios, and upper mantle processing rates throughout Earth's history. We search for parameter combinations that simultaneously satisfy observational constraints on present-day mantle 4 He/ 3 He and 40 Ar/ 36 Ar (sensitive to mantle outgassing and continental crust growth, which depletes the mantle of U, Th and K), atmospheric 20 Ne/ 22 Ne (which tracks the mix of outgassed vs. delivered Ne in the atmosphere), and atmospheric 40 Ar/ 36 Ar in the past and today (sensitive to volatile delivery, mantle outgassing and crustal growth). Leveraging this intertwined set of noble gas abundances and isotopic compositions yields new constraints on initial noble gas abundances in the mantle and on the proportions of atmospheric volatiles originating from delivery by impact degassing, mantle outgassing, and degassing of the continental crust. We find that atmospheric Ar isotopic evolution is primarily sensitive to the mantle processing rate history; the atmospheric Ar isotopic record should therefore not be used to reconstruct continental crust growth, but instead provides valuable insights into mantle processing rates. Our model predicts a measurably low 20 Ne/ 22 Ne ratio of ~9.7 in Archean atmospheric samples. Most of atmospheric primordial 36 Ar was directly delivered by chondritic bodies and not transferred to the atmosphere during an intense early episode of mantle outgassing. Nitrogen delivered by impact degassing could account for the present-day atmospheric nitrogen inventory.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2024

Impacts of an Early Morning Low Earth Orbit Observing Platform in A Future Global Observing Network Scenario

Significant changes to the global observing network are expected in the coming decades including the launch of a global ring of geostationary satellites and a reduction in the number of low earth orbit (LEO) platforms. It is anticipated that there may be a gap in the LEO coverage between the planned mid-morning and early afternoon orbits. Here, the utility of an early morning LEO orbit for numerical weather prediction is considered using an observing system simulation experiment (OSSE). A global observing network with two LEO platforms including microwave and hyperspectral infrared instruments and three geostationary hyperspectral infrared platforms is considered for a future baseline scenario. Two instruments, a microwave radiometer modeled on the Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) and a hyperspectral infrared radiometer modeled on the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), are tested both individually and in conjunction on a new early morning orbit in addition to the future baseline scenario. The microwave instrument is found to have beneficial impacts for up to 4–7 days in the medium range forecast period with beneficial impacts for the infrared instrument for up to 3–5 days. Short-range forecast impacts estimated with Forecast Sensitivity Observation Impacts (FSOI) over the conterminous United States for the early morning orbit are somewhat weaker than for the same instruments in the early afternoon orbit due to the orbital passage being coincident with rawinsondes while the afternoon orbit is coincident with the minima of both rawinsondes and aircraft.

Nikki C Prive↗

NASA NTRS2000

Accretion of Moon and Earth and the emergence of life

The discrepancy between the impact records on the Earth and Moon in the time period, 4.0-3.5 Ga calls for a re-evaluation of the cause and localization of the late lunar bombardment. As one possible explanation, we propose that the time coverage in the ancient rock record is sufficiently fragmentary, so that the effects of giant, sterilizing impacts throughout the inner solar system, caused by marauding asteroids, could have escaped detection in terrestrial and Martian records. Alternatively, the lunar impact record may reflect collisions of the receding Moon with a series of small, original satellites of the Earth and their debris in the time period about 4.0-3.5 Ga. The effects on Earth of such encounters could have been comparatively small. The location of these tellurian moonlets has been estimated to have been in the region around 40 Earth radii. Calculations presented here, indicate that this is the region that the Moon would traverse at 4.0-3.5 Ga, when the heavy and declining lunar bombardment took place. The ultimate time limit for the emergence of life on Earth is determined by the effects of planetary accretion--existing models offer a variety of scenarios, ranging from low average surface temperature at slow accretion of the mantle, to complete melting of the planet followed by protracted cooling. The choice of accretion model affects the habitability of the planet by dictating the early evolution of the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Further exploration of the sedimentary record on Earth and Mars, and of the chemical composition of impact-generated ejecta on the Moon, may determine the choice between the different interpretations of the late lunar bombardment and cast additional light on the time and conditions for the emergence of life.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2011

Electromagnetic Scattering Analysis of Large Size Asteroids/Comets for Reflection/Transmission Tomography (RTT)

A precise knowledge of the interior structure of asteroids, comets, and Near Earth Objects (NEO) is important to assess the consequences of their impacts with the Earth and develop efficient mitigation strategies. Knowledge of their interior structure also provides opportunities for extraction of raw materials for future space activities. Low frequency radio sounding is often proposed for investigating interior structures of asteroids and NEOs. For designing and optimizing radio sounding instrument it is advantageous to have an accurate and efficient numerical simulation model of radio reflection and transmission through large size bodies of asteroid shapes. In this presentation we will present electromagnetic (EM) scattering analysis of electrically large size asteroids using (1) a weak form formulation and (2) also a more accurate hybrid finite element method/method of moments (FEM/MOM) to help estimate their internal structures. Assuming the internal structure with known electrical properties of a sample asteroid, we first develop its forward EM scattering model. From the knowledge of EM scattering as a function of frequency and look angle we will then present the inverse scattering procedure to extract its interior structure image. Validity of the inverse scattering procedure will be presented through few simulation examples.

Deshpande, Manohar↗

DOE OSTI2023

Optical Properties of Individual Tar Balls in the Free Troposphere

Tar balls are brown carbonaceous particles, highly viscous, spherical, amorphous, and light absorbing. They are believed to form in biomass burning smoke plumes during transport in the troposphere. Tar balls are believed to have a significant impact on the Earth’s radiative balance, but due to poorly characterized optical properties, this impact is highly uncertain. Here, we investigate the chemical composition and optical properties of individual tar balls transported in the free troposphere to the Climate Observatory “Ottavio Vittori” on Mt. Cimone, Italy (2165 meters above sea level) using multi-modal micro-spectroscopy. Our results show that tar balls contributed 50% of carbonaceous particles by number in the size range from 0.25 to 1.8 µm. Of those tar balls, 16% were inhomogeneously mixed with other constituents. Using electron energy loss spectroscopy, we retrieved the complex refractive index from 200 to 1200 nm for both inhomogeneously and homogeneously mixed tar balls. We found no significant difference in the average refractive index of inhomogeneously and homogenously mixed tar balls (1.40 - 0.03i, and 1.36 - 0.03i at 550 nm, respectively). Furthermore, we estimated the top of the atmosphere radiative forcing using the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer model (SBDART) and found that a layer of only tar balls with an optical depth of 0.1 above vegetation would exert a positive radiative forcing ranging from 2.8 Wm-2 (on a clear sky day) to 9.5 Wm-2 (when clouds are below the aerosol layer). In conclusion, understanding the optical properties of tar balls can help reduce uncertainties associated with the contribution of biomass-burning aerosol in current climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗