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At least 451 records · Page 25

PMEL Passive Acoustics Research: Quantifying the Ocean Soundscape from Whales to Wave Energy

Passive acoustic monitoring of the global ocean has increased dramatically over the last decade, providing insights into seasonal sea ice and wind/wave variability, biodiversity, geophysical hazards, and anthropogenic noise impacts. All of these phenomena are sentinels of marine ecosystem health and ocean climate change. Recognizing the utility of underwater sound, the Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory (PMEL) formed a passive acoustic research program with the goal of quantifying deep-ocean and coastal soundscapes in support of NOAA’s mission to conserve and manage marine ecosystems. PMEL Acoustics Program researchers have built a stable of novel ocean technologies, including autonomous stationary hydrophones, mobile platforms, and near-real-time surface buoys with satellite communication capability. These passive acoustic monitoring systems have been deployed in every major ocean basin on Earth, enabling significant advancements in understanding of natural and anthropogenic sounds. This progress includes evaluation of human-made sound levels across US waters, observations of ship noise fluctuations during the COVID-19 pandemic, and evaluation of noise levels from offshore wave-energy devices. Progress in natural sound research includes assessment of seasonal variability in the presence of endangered cetacean species due to population recovery and/or changing ocean temperatures as well as early detection of the collapse of an Antarctic ice shelf.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Forcing & Feedbacks by Fires, Forests, Fossil Energy & Food Production: Observations are Key to Predictions [Slides]

Human emitted GHGs (long lived, cumulative) that trap more heat (IR) and aerosols (short lived, steady) that reflect sunlight (Vis) have altered Earth’s radiation budget and warmed our climate measurably and predictably. Our complex dynamic climate system has trapped 400 ZettaJ (10 21 ) and has many positive feedbacks. Regions are changing at unprecedented rates and crossing thresholds as BAU will lock us into 8.5 W m -2 in 2100.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth-system-model evaluation of cloud and precipitation occurrence for supercooled and warm clouds over the Southern Ocean's Macquarie Island

Abstract. Over the remote Southern Ocean (SO), cloud feedbacks contribute substantially to Earth system model (ESM) radiative biases. The evolution of low Southern Ocean clouds (cloud-top heights < ∼ 3 km) is strongly modulated by precipitation and/or evaporation, which act as the primary sink of cloud condensate. Constraining precipitation processes in ESMs requires robust observations suitable for process-level evaluations. A year-long subset (April 2016–March 2017) of ground-based profiling instrumentation deployed during the Macquarie Island Cloud and Radiation Experiment (MICRE) field campaign (54.5∘ S, 158.9∘ E) combines a 95 GHz (W-band) Doppler cloud radar, two lidar ceilometers, and balloon-borne soundings to quantify the occurrence frequency of precipitation from the liquid-phase cloud base. Liquid-based clouds at Macquarie Island precipitate ∼ 70 % of the time, with deeper and colder clouds precipitating more frequently and at a higher intensity compared to thinner and warmer clouds. Supercooled cloud layers precipitate more readily than layers with cloud-top temperatures > 0 ∘C, regardless of the geometric thickness of the layer, and also evaporate more frequently. We further demonstrate an approach to employ these observational constraints for evaluation of a 9-year GISS-ModelE3 ESM simulation. Model output is processed through the Earth Model Column Collaboratory (EMC2) radar and lidar instrument simulator with the same instrument specifications as those deployed during MICRE, therefore accounting for instrument sensitivities and ensuring a coherent comparison. Relative to MICRE observations, the ESM produces a smaller cloud occurrence frequency, smaller precipitation occurrence frequency, and greater sub-cloud evaporation. The lower precipitation occurrence frequency by the ESM relative to MICRE contrasts with numerous studies that suggest a ubiquitous bias by ESMs to precipitate too frequently over the SO when compared with satellite-based observations, likely owing to sensitivity limitations of spaceborne instrumentation and different sampling methodologies for ground- versus space-based observations. Despite these deficiencies, the ESM reproduces the observed tendency for deeper and colder clouds to precipitate more frequently and at a higher intensity. The ESM also reproduces specific cloud regimes, including near-surface clouds that account for ∼ 25 % of liquid-based clouds during MICRE and optically thin, non-precipitating clouds that account for ∼ 27 % of clouds with bases higher than 250 m. We suggest that the demonstrated framework, which merges observations with appropriately constrained model output, is a valuable approach to evaluate processes responsible for cloud radiative feedbacks in ESMs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Leaf isoprene and monoterpene emission distribution across hyperdominant tree genera in the Amazon basin

Tropical forests are acknowledged to be the largest global source of isoprene (C 5 H 8 ) and monoterpenes (C 10 H 16 ) emissions, with current synthesis studies suggesting few tropical species emit isoprenoids (20-38%) and do so with highly variable emission capacities, including within the same genera. This apparent lack of a clear phylogenetic thread has created difficulties both in linking isoprenoid function with evolution and for the development of accurate biosphere-atmosphere models. In this work, we present a systematic emission study of "hyperdominant" tree species in the Amazon Basin. Across 162 individuals, distributed among 25 botanical families and 113 species, isoprenoid emissions were widespread among both early and late successional species (isoprene: 61.9% of the species; monoterpenes: 15.0%; both isoprene and monoterpenes: 9.7%). The hyperdominant species (69) across the top five most abundant genera, which make up about 50% of all individuals in the Basin, had a similar abundance of isoprenoid emitters (isoprene: 63.8%; monoterpenes: 17.4%; both 11.6%). Among the abundant genera, only Pouteria had a low frequency of isoprene emitting species (15.8% of 19 species). In contrast, Protium, Licania, Inga, and Eschweilera were rich in isoprene emitting species (83.3% of 12 species, 61.1% of 18 species, 100% of 8 species, and 100% of 12 species, respectively). Light response curves of individuals in each of the five genera showed light-dependent, photosynthesis-linked emission rates of isoprene and monoterpenes. Importantly, in every genus, we observed species with light-dependent isoprene emissions together with monoterpenes including β-ocimene. These observations support the emerging view of the evolution of isoprene synthases from β-ocimene synthases. Our results have important implications for understanding isoprenoid function-evolution relationships and the development of more accurate Earth System Models.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗

Causal Interactions between Southern Ocean Polynyas and High-Latitude Atmosphere–Ocean Variability

Abstract Weddell Sea open-ocean polynyas have been observed to occasionally release heat from the deep ocean to the atmosphere, indicating that their sporadic appearances may be an important feature of high-latitude atmosphere–ocean variability. Yet, observations of the phenomenon are sparse and many standard-resolution models represent these features poorly, if at all. We use a fully coupled, synoptic-scale preindustrial control simulation of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SMv0-HR) to effectively simulate open-ocean polynyas and investigate their role in the climate system. Our approach employs statistical tests of Granger causality to diagnose local and remote drivers of, and responses to, polynya heat loss on interannual to decadal time scales. First, we find that polynya heat loss Granger causes a persistent increase in surface air temperature over the Weddell Sea, strengthening the local cyclonic wind circulation. Along with responding to polynyas, atmospheric conditions also facilitate their development. When the Southern Ocean experiences a rapid poleward shift in the circumpolar westerlies following a prolonged negative phase of the southern annular mode (SAM), Weddell Sea salinity increases, promoting density destratification and convection in the water column. Finally, we find that the reduction of surface heat fluxes during periods of full ice cover is not fully compensated by ocean heat transport into the high latitudes. This imbalance leads to a buildup of ocean heat content that supplies polynya heat loss. These results disentangle the complex, coupled climate processes that both enable the polynya’s existence and respond to it, providing insights to improve the representation of these highly episodic sea ice features in climate models.

Kaufman, Zachary S.↗

Soil moisture gradients strengthen mesoscale convective systems by increasing wind shear

Mesoscale convective systems are a class of storm linked to extensive flooding and other destructive hazards in many regions globally. In West Africa, soil moisture impacts provide a valuable source of predictability for mature storm hazards, but little is known about mature storm sensitivity to soil moisture in other climatic regions. Here we use a storm track dataset, satellite observations and reanalysis fields to investigate the response of mature storms to soil moisture in seven global storm hotspots—West Africa, India, South America, South Africa, Australia and the United States Great Plains. We demonstrate that mesoscale soil moisture gradients (~500 km) can enhance storms by driving increased vertical wind shear conditions, a crucial ingredient for storm organization, through the strengthening of atmospheric temperature gradients. This is evidenced by a 10–30% increase in precipitation feature size and rainfall for the largest storms on days with favourable soil moisture gradients compared with unfavourable gradients. Global simulations confirm that soil moisture gradients influence wind shear. The results demonstrate the importance of soil moisture feedbacks for accurate forecasting of mesoscale convective systems and future projections of extreme events under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Universal Kardar-Parisi-Zhang Dynamics in Integrable Quantum Systems

Although the Bethe ansatz solution of the spin-1/2 Heisenberg model dates back nearly a century, the anomalous nature of its high-temperature transport dynamics has only recently been uncovered. Indeed, numerical and experimental observations have demonstrated that spin transport in this paradigmatic model falls into the Kardar-Parisi-Zhang (KPZ) universality class. This has inspired the significantly stronger conjecture that KPZ dynamics, in fact, occur in all integrable spin chains with non-Abelian symmetry. Here, in this letter, we provide extensive numerical evidence affirming this conjecture. Moreover, we observe that KPZ transport is even more generic, arising in both supersymmetric and periodically driven models. Motivated by recent advances in the realization of SU(N)-symmetric spin models in alkaline-earth-based optical lattice experiments, we propose and analyze a protocol to directly investigate the KPZ scaling function in such systems.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A Comprehensive Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package for E3SM – ChemDyg Version 1.1.0

The Chemistry Evaluation and Diagnostics Package (ChemDyg) is an open-source tool designed for the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) developed by the U.S. Department of Energy. ChemDyg facilitates routine evaluation, tailored development, and in-depth analysis of atmospheric chemistry through its modular architecture, allowing users to compare model outputs with observational data. Version 1.1.0 introduces a robust set of diagnostic capabilities, including climatology, time evolution of key tracers, diurnal and annual cycle analyses, and extensive budget diagnostics. These features help identify model discrepancies and enhance the representation of atmospheric chemistry in E3SM. Each self-contained diagnostic set includes dedicated scripts and documentation for ease of use. The interactive HTML output improves data accessibility, accelerating chemistry model development. Additionally, ChemDyg's flexible framework allows for customization, enabling users to create unique diagnostic sets for specific scientific contributions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Modeling Large Dust Aerosols in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.

Li, Longlei [Cornell Univ., Ithaca, NY (United Sta↗

Irrigation-induced land water depletion aggravated by climate change

Agricultural irrigation has experienced rapid expansion, and its growing freshwater consumption is potentially exacerbating water scarcity issues. Previous studies predominantly relied on observations or land-only simulations, often neglecting land–atmosphere interactions or failing to capture long-term evolution. We therefore analyse the effects of historical irrigation expansion on water fluxes and resources using seven Earth system models. Here we show that irrigation expansion in many regions substantially decreases the net water influx from the atmosphere to land, further aggravating the existing drying trends caused by climate change. For example, irrigation expansion changed the trend of this net influx from −0.664 ( ± 0.283) to −1.461 ( ± 0.261) mm yr −2 in South Asia after 1960. Consequently, the local terrestrial water storage depletion rate is substantially enlarged by irrigation expansion (for example, from −2.559 ( ± 0.094) to −16.008 ( ± 0.557) mm yr −1 ). Our results attribute the land water loss to irrigation expansion and climate change, calling for immediate solutions to tackle the negative trends.

irrigation↗

A Positive Low Cloud–Sea Surface Temperature Feedback in the East Asian Marginal Seas during El Niño Mature Winters and Their Following Spring

During the winter and subsequent spring of an El Niño year, the East Asian marginal sea (EAMS) exhibits positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and fewer low clouds, while the western North Pacific experiences negative SSTAs. In this study, we suggest that the positive SSTAs in EAMS are maintained by a positive low cloud–SST feedback. In neutral winters and springs, the EAMS is covered by low clouds, which have a cooling effect on surface temperatures. During an El Niño year, a western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone is established, and along its northwestern flank, there are favorable conditions for convergence of moisture and weaker surface latent heat flux over the EAMS. Once a positive SSTA has been established, a further reduction of turbulent mixing results in less low cloud and enhanced solar heating of the ocean mixed layer; this reinforces and maintains both the positive SSTA and the lack of low cloud via a positive feedback mechanism. Further, the concurrent increase of low cloud–SST feedback and anticyclone circulation strengths is evident in the coupled-model simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. Furthermore, sensitivity experiments, performed with the atmospheric components of Community Earth System Model (CESM2), reveal that a positive SSTA helps to maintain the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone. Four pacemaker-coupled experiments by CESM2, with sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific restored to the observational anomalies plus the model climatology and altered low cloud feedback over EAMS, suggest that the low cloud–SST feedback results in more than the maintenance of a positive SSTA over the EAMS: the positive feedback is also a previously overlooked mechanism for the maintenance of the western North Pacific anomalous anticyclone.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Markov Chain Monte Carlo Predictions of Neutron-rich Lanthanide Properties as a Probe of r -process Dynamics

Lanthanide element signatures are key to understanding many astrophysical observables, from merger kilonova light curves to stellar and solar abundances. To learn about the lanthanide element synthesis that enriched our solar system, we apply the statistical method of Markov Chain Monte Carlo to examine the nuclear masses capable of forming the r-process rare-earth abundance peak. We describe the physical constraints we implement with this statistical approach and demonstrate the use of the parallel chains method to explore the multidimensional parameter space. We apply our procedure to three moderately neutron-rich astrophysical outflows with distinct types of r-process dynamics. We show that the mass solutions found are dependent on outflow conditions and are related to the r-process path. We describe in detail the mechanism behind peak formation in each case. We then compare our mass predictions for neutron-rich neodymium and samarium isotopes to the latest experimental data from the CPT at CARIBU. Here, we find our mass predictions given outflows that undergo an extended (n,γ)⇌(γ,n) equilibrium to be those most compatible with both observational solar abundances and neutron-rich mass measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

ARM Aerial Instrument Workshop Report

The mission of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program is to “support transformative science and scientific user facilities to achieve a predictive understanding of complex biological, earth, and environmental systems for energy and infrastructure security, independence, and prosperity.” (https://science.osti.gov/ber) Aligned with the BER central mission, the Earth and Environmental Systems Sciences Division (EESSD) plays a vital role in supporting the fundamental research to understand and predict Earth’s climate and environmental systems, and is also in a unique position to inform the development of sustainable solutions to the nation’s energy and environmental challenges. Specifically, EESSD manages two scientific user facilities: the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility and the Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL). These facilities provide the broader scientific community with scientific expertise, technical capabilities, and unique data sets to facilitate science in areas of importance to DOE. As a multi-platform scientific user facility, ARM aims to fulfill the needs predominantly within the EESSD Atmospheric System Research (ASR) and the Earth and Environmental System Modeling (EESM) mission areas, and provide the critical measurements required to improve understanding of aerosol and cloud life cycles and their interactions, and their coupling with the Earth’s surface. Over the years, ARM has carried out piloted and unmanned aircraft campaigns under different organizational and operational paradigms (Schmid et al. 2014, 2016). Building on its success, the ARM Aerial Facility (AAF) continues to complement the ground-based observations with airborne in situ cloud, aerosol, and trace gas observations as well as measurements of atmospheric state and atmospheric radiation. During the past three years, ARM has managed field campaigns using unmanned aerial systems (UAS) and tethered balloon systems (TBS) at Oliktok Point in Alaska to improve understanding of atmospheric processes in the Arctic. In 2019, following a careful evaluation of scientific community needs, ARM acquired a Bombardier Challenger 850 regional jet to replace the vintage Grumman Gulfstream-159 turboprop aircraft previously used by AAF. With this new “laboratory in the sky”, AAF is evaluating its current and future aerial observation capabilities to continue satisfying the needs of the research community.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nutrient Dynamics in a Coupled Terrestrial Biosphere and Land Model (ELM-FATES-CNP)

We present a representation of nitrogen and phosphorus cycling in the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, a demographic vegetation model within the Energy Exascale Earth System land model. This representation is modular, and designed to allow testing of multiple hypothetical approaches for carbon-nutrient coupling in plants. Novel model hypotheses introduced in this work include, (a) the controls on plant acquisition of aqueous mineralized nutrients in the soil and (b) fairly straight forward methods of allocating nutrients to specific plant organs and their losses through live plant turnover as well as litter fluxes generated through plant mortality. This combines the new with pre-existing hypotheses (such as nitrogen fixation and soil decomposition) into a system that can accommodate plant-soil dynamics for a large number of size- and functional-type-resolved plant cohorts within a time-since-disturbance-resolved ecosystem. Root uptake of nutrients is governed by fine root biomass, and plants vary in their fine root biomass allocation in order to balance carbon and nutrient limitations to growth. We test the sensitivity of the model to a wide range of parameter variations and structural representations, and in the context of observations at Barro Colorado Island, Panama. A key model prediction is that plants in the high-light-availability canopy positions allocate more carbon to fine roots than plants in low-light understory environments, given the widely different carbon versus nutrient constraints of these two niches within a given ecosystem. This model provides a basis for exploring carbon-nutrient coupling with vegetation demography within Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Satellite Observations of the Tropical Terrestrial Carbon Balance and Interactions With the Water Cycle During the 21st Century

A constellation of satellites are now in orbit providing information about terrestrial carbon and water storage and fluxes. These combined observations show that the tropical biosphere has changed significantly in the last two decades from the combined effects of climate variability and land use. Large areas of forest have been cleared in both wet and dry forests, increasing the source of carbon to the atmosphere. Concomitantly, tropical fire emissions have declined, at least until 2016, from changes in land-use practices and rainfall, increasing the net carbon sink. Measurements of carbon stocks and fluxes from disturbance and recovery and of vegetation photosynthesis show significant regional variability of net biosphere exchange (NBE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across the tropics and are tied to seasonal and interannual changes in water fluxes and storage. Comparison of satellite based estimates of evapotranspiration (ET), photosynthesis, and the deuterium content of water vapor with patterns of total water storage and rainfall demonstrate the presence of vegetation-atmosphere interactions and feedback mechanisms across tropical forests. However, these observations of stocks, fluxes and inferred interactions between them do not point unambiguously to either positive or negative feedbacks in carbon and water exchanges. These ambiguities highlight the need for assimilation of these new measurements with Earth System models for a consistent assessment of process interactions, along with focused field campaigns that integrate ground, aircraft and satellite measurements, to quantify the controlling carbon and water processes and their feedback mechanisms.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Modes of Variability in E3SM and CESM Large Ensembles

An adequate characterization of internal modes of climate variability (MoV) is a prerequisite for both accurate seasonal predictions and climate change detection and attribution. Assessing the fidelity of climate models in simulating MoV is therefore essential; however, doing so is complicated by the large intrinsic variations in MoV and the limited span of the observational record. Large ensembles (LEs) provide a unique opportunity to assess model fidelity in simulating MoV and quantify intermodel contrasts. Here, in this work, these goals are pursued in four recently produced LEs: the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) versions 1 and 2 LEs, and the Community Earth System Model (CESM) versions 1 and 2 LEs. In general, the representation of global coupled modes is found to improve across successive E3SM and CESM versions in conjunction with the fidelity of the base state climate while the patterns of extratropical modes are well simulated across the ensembles. Various persistent shortcomings for all MoV are however identified and discussed. The results both demonstrate the successes of these recent model versions and suggest the potential for continued improvement in the representation of MoV with advances in model physics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Using machine learning and artificial intelligence to improve model-data integrated earth system model predictions of water and carbon cycle extremes

The research proposed here focuses on improving the predictive power of the land component of earth system models (ESMs) using (1) model-data fusion enabled by machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI), (2) predictive modeling through the combination of ML, AI, and big-data (comprising both model output and observations), and (3) insight of ESM structure and process mechanisms gleaned from complex data using ML and AI.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗