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At least 451 records · Page 25

Classification of Dust Days by Satellite Remotely Sensed Aerosol Products

Considerable progress in satellite remote sensing (SRS) of dust particles has been seen in the last decade. From an environmental health perspective, such an event detection, after linking it to ground particulate matter (PM) concentrations, can proxy acute exposure to respirable particles of certain properties (i.e. size, composition, and toxicity). Being affected considerably by atmospheric dust, previous studies in the Eastern Mediterranean, and in Israel in particular, have focused on mechanistic and synoptic prediction, classification, and characterization of dust events. In particular, a scheme for identifying dust days (DD) in Israel based on ground PM10 (particulate matter of size smaller than 10 nm) measurements has been suggested, which has been validated by compositional analysis. This scheme requires information regarding ground PM10 levels, which is naturally limited in places with sparse ground-monitoring coverage. In such cases, SRS may be an efficient and cost-effective alternative to ground measurements. This work demonstrates a new model for identifying DD and non-DD (NDD) over Israel based on an integration of aerosol products from different satellite platforms (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI)). Analysis of ground-monitoring data from 2007 to 2008 in southern Israel revealed 67 DD, with more than 88 percent occurring during winter and spring. A Classification and Regression Tree (CART) model that was applied to a database containing ground monitoring (the dependent variable) and SRS aerosol product (the independent variables) records revealed an optimal set of binary variables for the identification of DD. These variables are combinations of the following primary variables: the calendar month, ground-level relative humidity (RH), the aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS, and the aerosol absorbing index (AAI) from OMI. A logistic regression that uses these variables, coded as binary variables, demonstrated 93.2 percent correct classifications of DD and NDD. Evaluation of the combined CART-logistic regression scheme in an adjacent geographical region (Gush Dan) demonstrated good results. Using SRS aerosol products for DD and NDD, identification may enable us to distinguish between health, ecological, and environmental effects that result from exposure to these distinct particle populations.

satellite remote sensing↗

Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind: Project Synthesis

The population of North Atlantic right whales is critically endangered and their habitat overlaps with offshore windfarm leases. It is therefore imperative that effective mitigation strategies be used to avoid impacts on right whales during the construction of offshore windfarms. The Department of Energy issued FOA Number DE-FOA-0001924 to encourage the development of technology that could monitor large exclusion zones for right whales in order to mitigate potential impact of construction noise on right whales. This report summarizes the past two years of the development and evaluation of the Coastal Acoustic Buoy for Offshore Wind (CABOW) project which aimed to develop technology to monitor large exclusion zones for North Atlantic right whales. Over the course of the project SMRU Consulting have implemented a rigorous design process including comparison of different approaches (e.g., single sensor vs multiple sensors), as well as consideration of placement and timing of acoustic monitoring. We have evaluated critical components of the CABOW system including, reliability, detection range, and bearing accuracy in areas adjacent to offshore windfarm leases in Maryland by conducting 3,536 playbacks of simulated right whale upcalls. The maximum call detection range was 7.5 km when noise was 99 dB re 1µPa rms (50-225 Hz), but this reduced to < 1 km when ambient noise levels were high. Our detection probability in the field was measured as a function of range as well as the source-to-noise level ratio allowing us to build a model to predict the probability of detection under various scenarios (sample size: 3,536 calls x 5 buoys = 17,680). The median bearing error was -0.25° but this is likely an underestimate of error due to experimental design. Using the published recall and precision of the two detectors we implemented in the CABOW system, we estimate that at a recall of 80%, our precision was > 80%, within the range of what we were aiming for in this project. To estimate our exclusion zone false negative and false positive rates, we built a simulation model using the empirical data from our field trial. We modelled three to nine CABOW units placed on the 10 km exclusion zone and estimated our false negative rate to be 1% or less (which was our project goal) and our false positive rate to be between seven and nine percent, slightly above our goal of 5%. However, we also modelled an equivalent PAM system that does not have bearing capabilities and found the false positive rates for that system to be six to eight times higher than the CABOW rate. This higher false positive rate of PAM systems with low spatial information could have significant cost repercussions for offshore wind developers by adding work shutdowns or delays without providing additional protection for right whales. The model we built allows us to explore the placement of PAM systems under various scenarios and will thus help facilitate planning of PAM mitigation systems to meet NOAA Incidental Harassment Authorizations for specific windfarms. We achieved an average system uptime of 98.3%, just below our goal of 99%. The issues that caused these short losses of data have been identified and fixed. Right whale detections and audio clips were typically transferred via radio from the buoys to the base station in two to four seconds. We therefore believe we have developed a highly robust real-time PAM system. Based on the above, we feel we have achieved the stated funding goal of developing a cost-effective and robust real-time PAM system that enables the monitoring of large exclusion zones for right whales during the constructions of offshore windfarms. This should lead to decreased costs and risks for the offshore wind sector while providing robust mitigation for right whales. It is important to state that PAM mitigation will need to be implemented with other mitigation strategies (e.g., visual observers) to provide a complete mitigation strategy to ensure that any effects on right whales from offshore windfarm construction is minimized.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Lunar Dust Effects on Spacesuit Systems: Insights from the Apollo Spacesuits

Systems and components of selected Apollo A7L/A7LB flight-article spacesuits that were worn on the lunar surface have been studied to determine the degree to which they suffered contamination, abrasion and wear or loss of function due to effects from lunar soil particles. Filter materials from the lithium hydroxide (LiOH) canisters from the Apollo Command Module were also studied to determine the amount and type of any lunar dust particles they may have captured from the spacecraft atmosphere. The specific spacesuit study materials include the outermost soft fabric layers on Apollo 12 and 17 integrated thermal micrometeorite garment assemblies and outermost fabrics on Apollo 17 extravehicular pressure gloves. In addition, the degree of surface wear in the sealed wrist rotation bearing from Apollo 16 extravehicular and intravehicular pressure gloves was evaluated and compared. Scanning electron microscope examination of the Apollo 12 T-164 woven TeflonO fabric confirms the presence of lunar soil particles and the ability of these particles to cause separation and fraying of the Teflon fibers. Optical imaging, chemical analysis and particle sampling applied to the outer fabric of the Apollo 17 spacesuit has identified Ti as a potentially useful chemical marker for comparing the amount of lunar soil retained on different areas of the spacesuit outer fabric. High-yield particle sampling from the Apollo 17 fabric surfaces using adhesive tape found 80% of particles on the fabric are lunar soil particles averaging 10.5 m in diameter, with the rest being intrinsic fabric materials or environmental contaminants. Analysis of the mineralogical composition of the lunar particles found that on a grain-count basis the particle population is dominated by plagioclase feldspar and various types of glassy particles derived mostly from soil agglutinates, with a subordinate amount of pyroxene. On a grain size basis, however, the pyroxene grains are generally a factor of 2 larger than glass and plagioclase, so conversion of the data to a modal (volume %) basis results in pyroxene becoming the modally dominant particle type with glass and plagioclase significantly less abundant. When comparisons are made to the modal composition of lunar soil at the Apollo 17 landing site, the results suggest that pyroxene particles have overall better retention on the spacesuit outer fabric compared to plagioclase and especially glass. Scanning electron microscopy revealed no measureable difference in the amount of wear and abrasion in the wrist rotation bearing of an Apollo 16 pressure glove worn only in the spacecraft and one worn only for extravehicular activity on the lunar surface. The results suggest either that the bearing prevented entry of lunar dust, or that dust was not sufficiently abrasive to damage the bearing, or both.

Christoffersen, Roy↗

A novel network-based approach to determining measurement representation error for model evaluation of aerosol microphysical properties

Atmospheric aerosol size and abundance influence radiative effects and climate change. To date, efforts to constrain global climate models’ radiative forcing with in situ aerosol observations have been hamstrung by uncertainty. One source of error, the regional “representation error,” arises when accurate but sparse single-point measurements of atmospheric aerosol distributions are compared with a model value, assuming that the single-point measurement is representative of the model domain. The Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer network in the Southern Great Plains (POPSnet-SGP) campaign has demonstrated that a network of nearly autonomous aerosol instruments operating at ambient temperature and relative humidity (with low measurement error) may be used to quantify measurement representation error and investigate the factors introducing heterogeneity in aerosol distributions across a rural, continental background region. Measurements were made using Portable Optical Particle Spectrometer (POPS) instruments at several sites for five months across the Department of Energy’s Aerosol Radiation Measurement Southern Great Plains (ARM-SGP) User Facility in the central USA. Measurement representation error decreased with longer averaging periods (20-40 % between 1 sec and 1 day), varied between sites by 10 – 20 % for aerosol concentration 140 – 2500 nm in diameter (N_140), and was higher for aerosols > 400 nm in diameter (N_400). Our measurements also show the influence of local meteorology on aerosol surface area (A_140) and size distributions: A_140 is positively correlated with wind speed and relative humidity, negatively correlated with precipitation, and lower given westerly winds. Based on this study, we conclude that the POPSnet approach provides considerably more insight into the spatial variability in the aerosol population that can be used to constrain climate models than would be available from similar networks of PM 2.5 monitors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Laser-driven ionization mechanisms of aluminum for single particle aerosol mass spectrometry

Single particle aerosol mass spectrometry (SPAMS), an analytical technique for measuring the size and composition of individual micron-scale particles, is capable of analyzing atmospheric pollutants and bioaerosols much more efficiently and with more detail than conventional methods which require the collection of particles onto filters for analysis in the laboratory. Despite SPAMS’ demonstrated capabilities, the primary mechanisms of ionization are not fully understood, which creates challenges in optimizing and interpreting SPAMS signals. In this paper, we present a well-stirred reactor model for the reactions involved with the laser-induced vaporization and ionization of an individual particle. The SPAMS conditions modeled in this paper include a 248 nm laser which is pulsed for 8 ns to vaporize and ionize each particle in vacuum. The ionization of 1 μm, spherical Al particles was studied by approximating them with a 0-dimensional plasma chemistry model. The primary mechanism of absorption of the 248 nm photons was pressure-broadened direct photoexcitation to Al(y 2 D). Atoms in this highly excited state then undergo superelastic collisions with electrons, heating the electrons and populating the lower energy excited states. We found that the primary ionization mechanism is electron impact ionization of various excited state Al atoms, especially Al(y 2 D). Because the gas expands rapidly into vacuum, its temperature decreases rapidly. The rate of three-body recombination (e - + e - + Al + → Al + e - ) increases at low temperature, and most of the electrons and ions produced recombine within several μs of the laser pulse. The importance of the direct photoexcitation indicates that the relative peak heights of different elements in SPAMS mass spectra may be sensitive to the available photoexcitation transitions. We also discuss the effects of laser intensity, particle diameter, and expansion dynamics.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

A Miniaturized Video System for Monitoring Drosophila Behavior

Long-term spaceflight may induce a variety of harmful effects in astronauts, resulting in altered motor and cognitive behavior. The stresses experienced by humans in space - most significantly weightlessness (microgravity) and cosmic radiation - are difficult to accurately simulate on Earth. In fact, prolonged and concomitant exposure to microgravity and cosmic radiation can only be studied in space. Behavioral studies in space have focused on model organisms, including Drosophila melanogaster. Drosophila is often used due to its short life span and generational cycle, small size, and ease of maintenance. Additionally, the well-characterized genetics of Drosophila behavior on Earth can be applied to the analysis of results from spaceflights, provided that the behavior in space is accurately recorded. In 2001, the BioExplorer project introduced a low-cost option for researchers: the small satellite. While this approach enabled multiple inexpensive launches of biological experiments, it also imposed stringent restrictions on the monitoring systems in terms of size, mass, data bandwidth, and power consumption. Suggested parameters for size are on the order of 100 mm3 and 1 kg mass for the entire payload. For Drosophila behavioral studies, these engineering requirements are not met by commercially available systems. One system that does meet many requirements for behavioral studies in space is the actimeter. Actimeters use infrared light gates to track the number of times a fly crosses a boundary within a small container (3x3x40 mm). Unfortunately, the apparatus needed to monitor several flies at once would be larger than the capacity of the small satellite. A system is presented, which expands on the actimeter approach to achieve a highly compact, low-power, ultra-low bandwidth solution for simultaneous monitoring of the behavior of multiple flies in space. This also provides a simple, inexpensive alternative to the current systems for monitoring Drosophila populations in terrestrial experiments, and could be especially useful in field experiments in remote locations. Two practical limitations of the system should be noted: first, only walking flies can be observed - not flying - and second, although it enables population studies, tracking individual flies within the population is not currently possible. The system used video recording and an analog circuit to extract the average light changes as a function of time. Flies were held in a 5-cm diameter Petri dish and illuminated from below by a uniform light source. A miniature, monochrome CMOS (complementary metal-oxide semiconductor) video camera imaged the flies. This camera had automatic gain control, and this did not affect system performance. The camera was positioned 5-7 cm above the Petri dish such that the imaging area was 2.25 sq cm. With this basic setup, still images and continuous video of 15 flies at one time were obtained. To reduce the required data bandwidth by several orders of magnitude, a band-pass filter (0.3-10 Hz) circuit compressed the video signal and extracted changes in image luminance over time. The raw activity signal output of this circuit was recorded on a computer and digitally processed to extract the fly movement "events" from the waveform. These events corresponded to flies entering and leaving the image and were used for extracting activity parameters such as inter-event duration. The efficacy of the system in quantifying locomotor activity was evaluated by varying environmental temperature, then measuring the activity level of the flies.

Bhattacharya, Sharmila↗

MARCI-observed clouds in the Hellas Basin during northern hemisphere summer on Mars: Interpretation with the NASA/Ames Legacy Mars Global Climate Model

We present a study that is motivated by a population of water ice clouds in the Hellas Basin that has been observed by the MARs Color Imager (MARCI) instrument on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) to persist throughout the majority of Northern Hemisphere (NH) summer. Although water ice clouds are present in Hellas at very low opacities throughout NH spring, they noticeably thicken after L(sub s) 60° and continue to do so until their peak optical thickness is attained at L(sub s) ~120°. They dissipate rapidly from L(sub s) 120° to 150°, and by L(sub s) 150°, the only clouds in Hellas are on the southern side of the basin and are indistinguishable from the polar hood clouds. We use the NASA/Ames Legacy Mars Global Climate Model (GCM), which is supported by the Agency’s Mars Climate Modeling Center, to investigate the dynamical and microphysical mechanisms that control the formation and evolution of Hellas water ice clouds. We show that water is transported from the North Polar Residual Cap (NPRC) southward across the equator and into the Hellas region. Water vapor is confined down low by cloud formation in the aphelion cloud belt, thus limiting the effectiveness of transport by the zonal mean overturning circulation (i.e., the Hadley cell). Thus, contrary to the commonly held conceptual understanding that the Hadley cell controls cross-equatorial water transport during this season, we show that the southward transport of water is done primarily in the vapor phase by stationary eddies at nearly all latitudes, including across the equator. Clouds form near the surface in the basin as moist air mixes with cold polar air on the western side of Hellas and are subsequently transported clockwise around the north side of the basin by the low-level cyclonic circulation. The simulated Hellas clouds have small particle sizes (~3–5 μm), are very low, and exist as long as the NPRC is exposed.

M. A. Kahre↗

Can we use antipredator behavior theory to predict wildlife responses to high-speed vehicles?

Animals seem to rely on antipredator behavior to avoid vehicle collisions. There is an extensive body of antipredator behavior theory that have been used to predict the distance/time animals should escape from predators. These models have also been used to guide empirical research on escape behavior from vehicles. However, little is known as to whether antipredator behavior models are appropriate to apply to an approaching high-speed vehicle scenario. We addressed this gap by (a) providing an overview of the main hypotheses and predictions of different antipredator behavior models via a literature review, (b) exploring whether these models can generate quantitative predictions on escape distance when parameterized with empirical data from the literature, and (c) evaluating their sensitivity to vehicle approach speed using a simulation approach wherein we assessed model performance based on changes in effect size with variations in the slope of the flight initiation distance (FID) vs. approach speed relationship. The slope of the FID vs. approach speed relationship was then related back to three different behavioral rules animals may rely on to avoid approaching threats: the spatial, temporal, or delayed margin of safety. We used literature on birds for goals (b) and (c). Our review considered the following eight models: the economic escape model, Blumstein’s economic escape model, the optimal escape model, the perceptual limit hypothesis, the visual cue model, the flush early and avoid the rush (FEAR) hypothesis, the looming stimulus hypothesis, and the Bayesian model of escape behavior. We were able to generate quantitative predictions about escape distance with the last five models. However, we were only able to assess sensitivity to vehicle approach speed for the last three models. The FEAR hypothesis is most sensitive to high-speed vehicles when the species follows the spatial (FID remains constant as speed increases) and the temporal margin of safety (FID increases with an increase in speed) rules of escape. The looming stimulus effect hypothesis reached small to intermediate levels of sensitivity to high-speed vehicles when a species follows the delayed margin of safety (FID decreases with an increase in speed). The Bayesian optimal escape model reached intermediate levels of sensitivity to approach speed across all escape rules (spatial, temporal, delayed margins of safety) but only for larger (> 1 kg) species, but was not sensitive to speed for smaller species. Overall, no single antipredator behavior model could characterize all different types of escape responses relative to vehicle approach speed but some models showed some levels of sensitivity for certain rules of escape behavior. We derive some applied applications of our findings by suggesting the estimation of critical vehicle approach speeds for managing populations that are especially susceptible to road mortality. Overall, we recommend that new escape behavior models specifically tailored to high-speeds vehicles should be developed to better predict quantitatively the responses of animals to an increase in the frequency of cars, airplanes, drones, etc. they will face in the next decade.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High Solids Loading Aqueous Slurry Formation of Corn Stover Before Pretreatment in a Fed-batch Bioreactor

With the increase on population the world will depend on renewable sources to meet the increasingly energy needs. Use of lignocellulosic biomass as a renewable source has been proven efficient for conversion to cellulosic ethanol and capable of contributing to achieve the threshold on energy demand while reducing greenhouse gases in 90% when compared with fossil fuels (Wang et al., 2007, 2012). However, the processing of biomass encounters limitations in feeding and flow within biorefineries due to the system plugging by compaction and slurry high yield stress, preventing transport of biomass materials and in some cases unexpected plant shutdowns that results in high operational costs (dos Santos et al., 2021; Ximenes et al., 2021). Different solutions for biomass handling and slurry formation from densified materials like pellets have been studied. Cellulosic biomass residues are typically processed in pretreatment reactors to which acid or base is added (Humbird et al., 2002). Other pretreatments such as liquid hot water (LHW) and steam explosion that act without the addition of chemicals use pressures above the saturation vapor of water, to disrupt biomass structure (Ruiz et al., 2021). Although these methods are widely known, the use of pretreatments like acid digestion and LHW present challenges like waste disposal and could be energy inefficient (Mosier et al., 2005). Alternatively other approaches like enzymatic liquefaction have been applied for biomass transformation into slurries with promising results and without the use of pretreatments (dos Santos et al., 2021). Nevertheless, enzymatic liquefaction implementation faces difficulties due to the recalcitrant properties of biomass, its variability, and the release of enzyme inhibitors. While it has been proven that chemical composition properties in biomass have effects on enzyme inhibition (Huang et al., 2022; Kim et al., 2011; Zhai et al., 2018), hindering the efficiency of the liquefaction, not ample research has been conducted in understanding the physical properties as particle size, porosity, water adsorption retention and their effect in the ability to form a slurry at high solids concentration (Yan et al., 2020). In order to improve lignocellulosic biomass handling and formation of biomass slurries, enzyme assisted liquefaction for slurry creation from corn stover at solids loadings up to 30% is reported in this work. Two different kinds of biomass (pelleted corn stover and cobs) were liquefied in a fed-batch process using commercial enzymes Celluclast 1.5L or Ctec-2 at 1FPU or 3 FPU per gram of dry solids in 10 mM sodium citrate buffer solution (pH 4.8). Pellets were fed into a 1 L stirred bioreactor according to a predefined fed-batch protocol over the first 5 hours until reaching 30% of solids loading. After 6, 24 and 96 hours, samples were taken and characterized with respect to their sugar composition, rheology and water absorption. Successful slurry creation with dramatically reduced yield stress was achieved for corn stover for both assessed enzymes. Yield stresses of 178±7 Pa (3 FPU, Celluclast 1.5L) and 79±6 Pa (3 FPU, Ctec-2) were measured for corn stover at 24 hours, compared to 6,000 Pa for samples without enzyme. Yield stress was 155± 29 Pa (3FPU, Ctec-2) and 257 ± 72 Pa (1 FPU, Celluclast 1.5L) for corn cobs at 24 hours. Yield stress decreased when residence time increased with an enhanced fluidity noted for higher enzyme concentrations. A profile for 6, 24 and 96h of yield stress measurements is presented.

Gutierrez, Diana↗

Aerosol–Ice Formation Closure: A Southern Great Plains Field Campaign

Prediction of ice formation in clouds presents one of the grand challenges in the atmospheric sciences. Immersion freezing initiated by ice-nucleating particles (INPs) is the dominant pathway of primary ice crystal formation in mixed-phase clouds, where supercooled water droplets and ice crystals coexist, with important implications for the hydrological cycle and climate. However, derivation of INP number concentrations from an ambient aerosol population in cloud-resolving and climate models remains highly uncertain. We conducted an aerosol–ice formation closure pilot study using a field-observational approach to evaluate the predictive capability of immersion freezing INPs. The closure study relies on collocated measurements of the ambient size-resolved and single-particle composition and INP number concentrations. The acquired particle data serve as input in several immersion freezing parameterizations, which are employed in cloud-resolving and climate models, for prediction of INP number concentrations. We discuss in detail one closure case study in which a front passed through the measurement site, resulting in a change of ambient particle and INP populations. We achieved closure in some circumstances within uncertainties, but we emphasize the need for freezing parameterization of potentially missing INP types and evaluation of the choice of parameterization to be employed. Overall, this closure pilot study aims to assess the level of parameter details and measurement strategies needed to achieve aerosol–ice formation closure. Furthermore, the closure approach is designed to accurately guide immersion freezing schemes in models, and ultimately identify the leading causes for climate model bias in INP predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Spectro-Microscopy Studies of Atmospheric Particles

Our project investigated composition and physical properties of individual atmospheric particles collected in field campaigns organized by the DOE Atmospheric Systems Research and Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ASR/ARM) programs, such as the Green Ocean Amazon (GoAmazon, 2014/5), the Holistic Interactions of Shallow Clouds, Aerosols, and Land-Ecosystems (HI-SCALE, 2016/7), the Aerosol and Cloud Experiment in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA, 2017/8), the Aerosol–Ice Formation Closure Pilot Study (AEROICESTUDY, 2019) and in additional small-scale supporting field experiments focused on the investigation of the light-absorbing (aka brown carbon) atmospheric particles. In these studies, we investigated the contribution of natural and anthropogenic sources to populations of atmospheric particles during representative atmospheric conditions; characterized particle composition and evaluated their hygroscopic properties and propensity to act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and ice nuclei (IN); correlated typical particle-type and mixing state characteristics with real-time measurements in the areas of studies. We used multi-modal spectro-microscopy techniques to examine elemental and molecular composition, mixing state, size, and higher order morphology for individual particles. Specifically, we used computer-controlled scanning electron microscopy and X-ray microanalysis for quantitative analysis of particle elemental composition, and we used transmission electron microscopy to provide additional information on the distribution of different components within individual particles (particle heterogeneity). We used synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy for quantitative description of the mixing state and molecular bonding of carbon in particles. The particle composition, mixing state, and morphology from analyzed periods was then combined with the real-time ARM measurements of aerosol size distribution, CCN concentration, hygroscopicity, and aerosol bulk composition. Combined together, results of our studies allowed us to assess the major particle sources (biogenic vs. anthropogenic, primary vs secondary) and gain insight into the atmospheric processing of aerosol particles resulting from condensation, coagulation, oxidative aging, and cloud processing. In collaboration with other scientists involved in field campaigns, we carried out statistical analysis of particle properties and their source-specific contributions to regional aerosol loading under representative air mass, meteorological, and cloud conditions.

scanning transmission X-ray microscopy↗

Structuring Nutrient Yields throughout Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin Using Machine Learning Approaches

To minimize the eutrophication pressure along the Gulf of Mexico or reduce the size of the hypoxic zone in the Gulf of Mexico, it is important to understand the underlying temporal and spatial variations and correlations in excess nutrient loads, which are strongly associated with the formation of hypoxia. This study’s objective was to reveal and visualize structures in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yield distributions throughout the Mississippi/Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). For this purpose, the annual mean nutrient concentrations were collected from thirty-three US Geological Survey (USGS) water stations scattered in the upper and lower MARB from 1996 to 2020. Eight surface water quality indicators were selected to make comparisons among water stations along the MARB over the past two decades. Principal component analysis (PCA) was used to comprehensively evaluate the nutrient yields across thirty-three USGS monitoring stations and identify the major contributing nutrient loads. The results showed that all samples could be analyzed using two main components, which accounted for 81.6% of the total variance. The PCA results showed that yields of orthophosphate (OP), silica (SI), nitrate–nitrites (NO 3 -NO 2 ), and total suspended sediment (TSS) are major contributors to nutrient yields. It also showed that land-planted crops, density of population, domestic and industrial discharges, and precipitation are fundamental causes of excess nutrient loads in MARB. These factors are of great significance for the excess nutrient load management and pollution control of the Mississippi River. It was found that the average nutrient yields were stable within the sub-MARB area, but the large nitrogen yields in the upper MARB and the large phosphorus yields in the lower MARB were of great concern. t-distributed stochastic neighbor embedding (t-SNE) revealed interesting nonlinear and local structures in nutrient yield distributions. Clustering analysis (CA) showed the detailed development of similarities in the nutrient yield distribution. Moreover, PCA, t-SNE, and CA showed consistent clustering results. This study demonstrated that the integration of dimension reduction techniques, PCA, and t-SNE with CA techniques in machine learning are effective tools for the visualization of the structures of the correlations in high-dimensional datasets of nutrient yields and provide a comprehensive understanding of the correlations in the distributions of nutrient loads across the MARB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bootstrapping outperforms community‐weighted approaches for estimating the shapes of phenotypic distributions

Abstract Estimating phenotypic distributions of populations and communities is central to many questions in ecology and evolution. These distributions can be characterized by their moments (mean, variance, skewness and kurtosis) or diversity metrics (e.g. functional richness). Typically, such moments and metrics are calculated using community‐weighted approaches (e.g. abundance‐weighted mean). We propose an alternative bootstrapping approach that allows flexibility in trait sampling and explicit incorporation of intraspecific variation, and show that this approach significantly improves estimation while allowing us to quantify uncertainty. We assess the performance of different approaches for estimating the moments of trait distributions across various sampling scenarios, taxa and datasets by comparing estimates derived from simulated samples with the true values calculated from full datasets. Simulations differ in sampling intensity (individuals per species), sampling biases (abundance, size), trait data source (local vs. global) and estimation method (two types of community‐weighting, two types of bootstrapping). We introduce the traitstrap R package, which contains a modular and extensible set of bootstrapping and weighted‐averaging functions that use community composition and trait data to estimate the moments of community trait distributions with their uncertainty. Importantly, the first function in the workflow, trait_fill , allows the user to specify hierarchical structures (e.g. plot within site, experiment vs. control, species within genus) to assign trait values to each taxon in each community sample. Across all taxa, simulations and metrics, bootstrapping approaches were more accurate and less biased than community‐weighted approaches. With bootstrapping, a sample size of 9 or more measurements per species per trait generally included the true mean within the 95% CI. It reduced average percent errors by 26%–74% relative to community‐weighting. Random sampling across all species outperformed both size‐ and abundance‐biased sampling. Our results suggest randomly sampling ~9 individuals per sampling unit and species, covering all species in the community and analysing the data using nonparametric bootstrapping generally enable reliable inference on trait distributions, including the central moments, of communities. By providing better estimates of community trait distributions, bootstrapping approaches can improve our ability to link traits to both the processes that generate them and their effects on ecosystems.

Maitner, Brian S.↗

Getting to the Heart of Cardiovascular Risk Assessment in Astronauts for Exploration Class Missions

Since the beginning of manned spaceflight, NASA has recognized the potential risk of cardiovascular decrements due to stressors in the space environment. Of particular concern is the effect of space radiation on cardiovascular disease since astronauts will be exposed to higher levels of galactic cosmic rays outside the Earth's protective magnetosphere. To date, only a few studies have examined the effects of heavy ion radiation on cardiovascular disease, and at lower, space-relevant doses, the association between radiation exposure and cardiovascular pathology is more varied and unclear. Furthermore, other spaceflight conditions such as microgravity, circadian shifts, and confinement stress pose unique challenges in estimating the health risks that can be attributed to exposure to ionizing radiations. In this work, we review age, cause of mortality, and radiation exposure amongst early NASA astronauts in selection groups and discuss the limitations of assessing such a cohort when attempting to characterize the risk of space flight, including stressors such as space radiation and microgravity exposure, on cardiovascular health. METHODS: NASA astronauts in selection groups 1-7 were chosen and the comparison population was white men of the same birth cohort as drawn from data from the CDC Wonder Database and CDC National Center for Health Statistics Life Tables. Cause of death information was obtained from the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health program and deceased astronauts were classified based on ICD-10 codes: ischemic heart disease (IHD), stroke, cancer, acute occupational events, non-NASA accidents, and other/unknown. Expected years of life left and expected age at death were calculated for the cohort. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: There were 32 deaths in this early astronaut population, 12 of which were due to accidents or acute occupational events that impacted lifespan considerably. The average age at death from these causes is 30 years lower than the average expected ~70 years of age in the general population. Remarkably, all 41 living early astronauts outlived our calculated expected age at death for members of their birth cohort; furthermore, 13 of the 20 deceased astronauts who did not die in NASA/non-NASA accidents exceeded this age. There was no difference in IHD between the astronaut cohort and the comparison population; therefore, it is not possible to associate IHD mortality with radiation in that astronaut cohort. As NASA looks toward future exploration-class missions, early astronaut cohorts provide a convenient option for assessing these risks and for developing mitigation strategies. However, many challenges still exist when assessing such limited evidence, including small cohort size, health and lifestyle confounders (such as smoking and drinking), the high accident mortality rate, and the fact that many of these astronauts are still alive, outliving many of their birth-cohort peers. Future analysis should include a longitudinal study, monitoring cases as they occur in the cohort. As this cohort is currently followed-up over time, and as more IHD cases are anticipated in a population of this age, this type of study is not as resource-intensive as would normally be the case.

Elgart, S. R.↗

Computational and Experimental Study of Energetic Materials in a Counterflow Microgravity Environment

Counterflow diffusion flames are studied for various fuels flowing against decomposition products from solid ammonium perchlorate (AP) pellets in order to obtain fundamental understanding of composite propellant flame structure and chemistry. We illustrate this approach through a combined experimental and numerical study of a fuel mixture consisting of C2H4 CO + H2, and C2H2 + C2H4 flowing against solid AP. For these particular AP-fuel systems, the resulting flame zone simulates the various flame structures that are ex+ to exist between reaction products from Ap crystals and a hydrocarbon binder. As in all our experimental studies, quantitative species and temperature profiles have been measured between the fuel exit and AP surface. Species measured included CN, NH, NO, OH, N2, CO2, CO, H2, CO, HCl, and H2O. Temperature was measured using a thermocouple at the exit, spontaneous Raman scattering measurements throughout the flame, OH rotational population distributions, and NO vibrational population distributions. The burning rate of AP was also measured as a function of strain rate, given by the separation distance between the AP surface and the gaseous hydrocarbon fuel tube exit plane. This distance was nominally set at 5 mm, although studies have been performed for variations in separation distance. The measured 12 scalars are compared with predictions from a detailed gas-phase kinetics model consisting of 86 species and 531 reactions. Model predictions are found to be in good agreement with experiment and illustrate the type of kinetic features that may be expected to occur in propellants when AP particle size distributions are varied. Furthermore, the results constitute the continued development of a necessary database and validation of a comprehensive model for studying more complex AP-solid fuel systems in microgravity. Exploratory studies have also been performed with liquid and solid fuels at normal gravity. Because of melting (and hence dripping) and deep thermal wave penetration into the liquid, these experiments were found feasible, but not used for obtaining quantitative data. Microgravity experiments are needed to eliminate the dripping and boiling phenomena of these systems at normal gravity. Microgravity tests in the NASA Glenn 2.2 second drop tower were performed (1) to demonstrate the feasibility of performing propellant experiments using the NASA Glenn microgravity facilities, (2) to develop the operational procedures for safe handing of the energetic materials and disposal of their toxic combustion by-products and (3) to obtain initial measurements of the AP burning rate and flame structure under microgravity conditions. Experiments were conducted on the CH4/AP system previously studied at normal gravity using a modified design of the counterflow burner and a NASA Glenn Pig Rig, i.e., one of the existing drop rigs for general-purpose usage. In these experiments, the AP burning rate was measured directly with a linear variable differential transducer (LVDT) and video imaging of the flame structure was recorded ignition was achieved by hot wires stretched across the AP surfaces. Initial drop tower combustion data show that with the same burner separation distance and flow conditions of the normal gravity experiments, the AP burning rate is approximately a factor of two lower. This difference is likely a result of radiation effects, but further tests with longer test times need to be conducted to verify that steady state conditions were achieved under microgravity conditions.

Takahashi, Fumiaki↗

Elucidating Processes Controlling Arctic Atmospheric Aerosol Sources, Aging, and Mixing States (Final Report)

Atmospheric aerosols play critical roles in the Earth’s energy budget, directly by scattering or absorbing solar and terrestrial radiation and indirectly by serving as seeds (nuclei) for cloud droplet and ice crystal formation and by depositing on snow and ice surface, thereby changing the surface albedo. These effects are dependent on aerosol particle size and chemical composition and impact the hydrological cycle as well. This project provided single-particle size and chemical composition measurements across the entire annual cycle in the high Arctic and in the Alaskan Arctic during fall – winter, addressing the most significant gaps in Arctic aerosol observational data. These needs were based on recent rapid sea ice loss across the entire Arctic, as well as the major annual delays in sea ice freeze-up during fall in the Chukchi Sea and increased wintertime sea ice fracturing in the Beaufort Sea, both off the North Slope of Alaska. Two DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) field campaigns were conducted for atmospheric aerosol sampling. The Aerosols during the Polar Utqiagvik Night (APUN – ‘snow on ground’ in Iñupiaq) ARM field campaign at Utqagivik, Alaska was conducted from Oct. 28 – Dec. 22, 2018. Aerosol sizing instrumentation and a single-particle mass spectrometer were successfully deployed for size-resolved number concentration measurements and measurements of individual particle size and chemical composition, respectively. These results show the influence of locally-produced sea spray aerosol, with high cloud-forming potential, due to delayed sea ice freeze-up in the fall. During the 2019‐2020 international Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, daily atmospheric aerosol particles were collected aboard the German icebreaker Polarstern in the Central Arctic from Nov. 2019 – Oct. 2020. Sea salt aerosol and marine organics were observed year-round during MOSAiC with varying morphologies and sources. These findings are important because most Arctic models do not include a sea spray aerosol source, despite this source increasing with declining sea ice extent. In addition to collecting new samples and data, this project also conducted further analysis of previously collected single-particle chemical composition measurements within the North Slope of Alaska oil fields and at Utqiaġvik, AK, during Aug. – Sep. 2015 and 2016 field campaigns. This work resulted in the discovery of chemical reactions of oil field combustion emissions occurring within fog droplets across the North Slope of Alaska and forming secondary aerosol, showing the impact of Arctic oil field emissions beyond black carbon aerosol and greenhouse gases. In addition, the distribution of chemical species across the aerosol population within the oil fields was quantified, using these data and a previously development framework. We also presented the first ambient evidence of the collision of two atmospheric particles resulting in formation of an organic-coated ammonium sulfate particle of marine origin, which has implications for cloud formation with declining sea ice extent. Overall, this project has elucidated connections between seawater biogeochemistry, resource extraction activities, atmospheric composition, clouds, and the energy budget of the Arctic region. The results of this project are expected to improve weather and sea ice forecasting for security and development in the Arctic and beyond.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA Lewis Launch Collision Probability Model Developed and Analyzed

There are nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the earth. These objects encompass manned objects, active and decommissioned satellites, spent rocket bodies, and debris. They range from a few centimeters across to the size of the MIR space station. Anytime a new satellite is launched, the launch vehicle with its payload attached passes through an area of space in which these objects orbit. Although the population density of these objects is low, there always is a small but finite probability of collision between the launch vehicle and one or more of these space objects. Even though the probability of collision is very low, for some payloads even this small risk is unacceptable. To mitigate the small risk of collision associated with launching at an arbitrary time within the daily launch window, NASA performs a prelaunch mission assurance Collision Avoidance Analysis (or COLA). For the COLA of the Cassini spacecraft, the NASA Lewis Research Center conducted an in-house development and analysis of a model for launch collision probability. The model allows a minimum clearance criteria to be used with the COLA analysis to ensure an acceptably low probability of collision. If, for any given liftoff time, the nominal launch vehicle trajectory would pass a space object with less than the minimum required clearance, launch would not be attempted at that time. The model assumes that the nominal positions of the orbiting objects and of the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time, and therefore, that any tracked object that comes within close proximity of the launch vehicle can be identified. For any such pair, these nominal positions can be used to calculate a nominal miss distance. The actual miss distances may differ substantially from the nominal miss distance, due, in part, to the statistical uncertainty of the knowledge of the objects positions. The model further assumes that these position uncertainties can be described with position covariance matrices. With these, and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution for the probability of collision is obtained. This solution provides clear insights into how each of the independent parameters affects the probability of collision. It shows that for a given maximum probability of collision and prior knowledge of the objects position uncertainties and sizes, only knowledge of the nominal closest approach distance is required to make the launch/no launch decision. The model was completed and used for the mission assurance COLA analysis for the Cassini spacecraft, which was launched on a Titan IV/Centaur rocket on October 15, 1997. Although the model was specifically developed for the Cassini mission, it is clearly applicable for other launches as well. The effect of COLA closures on the launch window is shown. The bar represents the entire 140-min launch window on October 15, 1997; the blackened areas represent the loss of launch opportunities due to the potential for a collision with an orbiting object.

Bollenbacher, Gary↗